PPP Poll North Carolina - With Head to Head Matchups

8/19/2019 PPP Poll North Carolina - With Head to Head Matchups

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Phone: 888 621-6988Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com

Email: [email protected]

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 13, 2016

INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL

[email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH

OF THE PRESS RELEASE

Trump Still Leads NC; Bond Likely To Pass

Raleigh, N.C. – Way back on July 8th PPP released a North Carolina poll that was

the first survey to find Donald Trump leading the Republican race anywhere in

the country. 8 months later our final poll of the GOP race finds Trump primed to

book end that first poll with a victory in the Tar Heel State. Trump is polling at44% to 33% for Ted Cruz, 11% for John Kasich, and 7% for Marco Rubio.

Compared to a month ago Trump's support is up 15 points and Cruz's is up 14

points. Kasich's remained in place, and Rubio has seen his support collapse 9

points. Trump appears to already be building up a lead among early voters- he's

at 46% to 38% for Cruz, 11% for Kasich, and 4% for Rubio. Among those planning

to vote on election day Trump gets 43% to 32% for Cruz, 11% for Kasich, and 8%

for Rubio.

If there's a path to #StopTrump in North Carolina it's Kasich and Rubio votersuniting around Cruz. Trump's lead over Cruz declines to 49/43 when the two are

matched head to head because Rubio voters overwhelmingly move to Cruz in that

scenario (70/20) and Kasich voters move to Cruz as well, although by a pretty

narrow 39/34 margin.

“If John Kasich and Marco Rubio really combine for 20% of the vote in North

Carolina on Tuesday Donald Trump will almost definitely win the state,” said

Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The only way he’s likely to be

stopped is if supporters of the also rans shift their support to Ted Cruz.”

One big thing Trump has going for him is that he has the most committed

supporters. 89% of Trump voters say they'll definitely cast their ballots for him,

compared to 84% of Cruz, 68% of Rubio, and 65% of Kasich supporters who say

the same for their candidate. Cruz needs to hope those Rubio and Kasich voters

open to changing their minds gravitate toward him if he's going to have a chance

to win the state.


2/58



Interestingly Kasich is now the most broadly popular candidate in North

Carolina, with a 60/23 favorability rating. Trump's next at 56/38, followed by

Cruz at 51/35, and continuing the recent trend Rubio is now under water in his

image with North Carolina Republicans as just 39% see him favorably to 48% who have a negative opinion.

Other notes from North Carolina:

-The Bond:

Democratic primary voters in North Carolina support the bond 67/18, while

Republicans are much more evenly divided on it with 47% in support and 43%

opposed. That should still add up to its passing with about 60% of the vote unless

undecideds move against it en masse.

-The Senate Race:

The US Senate race will be a contest between Richard Burr on the Republican

side and Deborah Ross on the Democratic side- they both have overwhelming

leads in their primaries. One interesting- and surprising thing- to watch for on

Tuesday night though might be who wins their primary by more. Right now we

find Ross leading hers by 32 points with 40% to 8% each for Ernest Reeves and

Chris Rey, and 4% for Kevin Griffin. It may be more instructive to look at the

numbers among those who have already voted- Ross is at 50% to 17% for Rey, 8%for Reeves, and 5% for Griffin, suggesting Rey is likely to end up in second place.

Burr- even as a two term incumbent- actually has a smaller lead than Ross in his

primary. He's up by 28 points with 48% to 20% for Greg Brannon, 4% for Paul

Wright, and 3% for Larry Holmquist.

“The Democratic Senate primary didn’t end up being much of a contest,” said

Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Deborah Ross has caught on

with the party base in a way none of the other candidates really have. General

election match ups between her and Richard Burr have also become closer as

she’s become more familiar to voters across the state.”

-The Governor's Race:

The primary contests on both the Republican and Democratic sides never really

became contests. Pat McCrory's getting 70% to 7% for Charles Kenneth Moss, and

6% for Robert Brawley. Roy Cooper leads Ken Spaulding 53/17 and has an even

wider 68/22 lead banked among early voters. The long anticipated


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McCrory/Cooper contest will be a real thing on Wednesday, and we've found

them trading small leads in the polls on a month to month basis ever since we

started looking at it. This is likely to be the premier Governor's race in the

country this year.

-The Race for Attorney General

There are still a lot of voters undecided in both party's primaries for Attorney

General- 40% for the Republicans, 43% for the Democrats. Things look very up in

the air on the Republican side- Jim O'Neill has a slim lead over Buck Newton at

33/27 and the numbers among voters who have already cast their ballots don't

clarify things much either- O'Neill received 44%, Newton received 37%, and 19%

either didn't vote in that contest or have already forgotten who they voted for. On

the Democratic side Josh Stein leads Marcus Williams by a relatively close 33/23spread, but among those who have already voted his lead is wider at 51/29 which

suggests people are moving toward him once they study the candidates more

carefully.

-Other Races on the Democratic Side

-Linda Coleman leads the primary for Lieutenant Governor with 32% to 18% for

Holly Jones, 7% for Robert Earl Wilson, and 5% for Ronald Newton. 38% of

voters are still undecided, but it also bodes well for Coleman that she's up 46/29

among those who have already voted.

-Charles Meeker has a 33/22 lead over Mazie Ferguson for Labor Commissioner.

Surprises can happen in a race that close with 44% of voters still undecided, but

similarly to Stein Meeker's 47/28 lead among those who have already voted

suggests good things once voters get informed.

-Dan Blue III is up 36/22 on Ron Elmer in the race for State Treasurer, but what

bodes particularly well for him is a 57/22 advantage among those who have

already voted. Elmer will really have to come from quite a bit behind to have a

chance on Tuesday.

Public Policy Polling surveyed 749 likely Republican primary voters and 746 likely Democratic

primary voters, from March 11th to 13th. The margin of error is +/-3.6% for both the Republicans

and the Democrats. 80% of participants, selected through a list based sample, responded via the

phone, while 20% of respondents who did not have landlines conducted the survey over the

internet through an opt-in internet panel.


4/58

March 11-13, 2016Survey of 749 likely Republican primary voters


3020 Highwoods Blvd.Raleigh, NC 27604

[email protected] / 888 621-6988



North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Will you vote in the Democratic or Republicanprimary for President, Governor, and otherimportant offices, or will you not vote in aprimary?

0%Democratic primary.........................................

100%Republican primary .........................................

0%Will not vote in a primary.................................

Q2 The Republican candidates for President areTed Cruz, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, andDonald Trump. If the election was today, whowould you vote for?

33%Ted Cruz .........................................................

11%John Kasich ....................................................

7%Marco Rubio ...................................................

44%Donald Trump .................................................

5%Undecided.......................................................

Q3 Are you firmly committed to your current choicefor President, or is it possible you’ll changeyour mind between now and the primary?

83%Firmly committed to your current choice .........

17%It’s possible you’ll change your mind betweennow and the primary .......................................

Q4 Given the same list of choices, who would beyour second choice for the GOP candidate forPresident in 2016?

18%Ted Cruz .........................................................

25%John Kasich ....................................................

21%Marco Rubio ...................................................

11%Donald Trump .................................................

25%Undecided.......................................................

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Ted Cruz?

51%Favorable........................................................

35%Unfavorable ....................................................

14%Not sure ..........................................................

Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof John Kasich?

60%Favorable........................................................

23%Unfavorable ....................................................

17%Not sure ..........................................................

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Marco Rubio?

39%Favorable........................................................

48%Unfavorable ....................................................

12%Not sure ..........................................................

Q8 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinionof Donald Trump?

56%Favorable........................................................

38%Unfavorable ....................................................

6%Not sure ..........................................................

Q9 Given the choices of just Donald Trump, MarcoRubio, and Ted Cruz who would you supportfor the Republican nomination for President?

47%Donald Trump .................................................

13%Marco Rubio ...................................................

33%Ted Cruz .........................................................

7%Not sure ..........................................................

Q10 Who would you prefer as the Republicancandidate if you had to choose between justTed Cruz and Marco Rubio?

56%Ted Cruz .........................................................

25%Marco Rubio ...................................................

19%Not sure ..........................................................


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Q11 Who would you prefer as the Republican

candidate if you had to choose between justTed Cruz and Donald Trump?

43%Ted Cruz .........................................................

49%Donald Trump .................................................

9%Not sure ..........................................................

Q12 Who would you prefer as the Republicancandidate if you had to choose between justJohn Kasich and Donald Trump?

37%John Kasich ....................................................

55%Donald Trump .................................................

8%Not sure ..........................................................Q13 Who would you prefer as the Republican

candidate if you had to choose between justMarco Rubio and Donald Trump?

33%Marco Rubio ...................................................

58%Donald Trump .................................................

9%Not sure ..........................................................

Q14 The Republican candidates for US Senate areLarry Holmquist, Paul Wright, Greg Brannon,and Richard Burr. If the election was today,who would you vote for?

3%Larry Holmquist............................................... 4%Paul Wright .....................................................

20%Greg Brannon .................................................

48%Richard Burr ....................................................

24%Undecided.......................................................

Q15 The Republican candidates for Governor arePat McCrory, Charles Kenneth Moss, and C.Robert Brawley. If the election was today, whowould you vote for?

70%Pat McCrory....................................................

7%Charles Kenneth Moss....................................

6%C. Robert Brawley...........................................

18%Undecided.......................................................

Q16 The Republican candidates for Attorney

General are Buck Newton and Jim O’Neill. Ifthe election was today, who would you votefor?

27%Buck Newton...................................................

33%Jim O’Neill.......................................................

40%Undecided.......................................................

Q17 The Republican candidates for Commissionerof Agriculture are Andy Stevens and SteveTroxler. If the election was today, who wouldyou vote for?

15% Andy Stevens..................................................

48%Steve Troxler ...................................................

37%Undecided.......................................................

Q18 The Republican candidates for Commissionerof Insurance are Joe McLaughlin, Ron Pierce,and Mike Causey. If the election was today,who would you vote for?

19%Joe McLaughlin...............................................

11%Ron Pierce ......................................................

24%Mike Causey ...................................................

46%Undecided.......................................................

Q19 There is a 2 billion dollar bond on the ballot tofund capital improvement and new facilities forthe state including the construction andfurnishing of new facilities for the UNC system,the North Carolina Community College System,water and sewer systems, the State’s NationalGuard, the Department of Agriculture andConsumer Services, attractions and parks, andthe Department of Public Safety. If the electionwas today, would you vote for or against thisbond proposal?

47%Vote for the bond proposal..............................

43%Vote against the bond proposal ......................

10%Not sure ..........................................................


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Q20 Have you already voted using Early Voting or

an absentee ballot, or have you not voted yet? 23% Already voted..................................................

77%Haven't voted yet ............................................

Q21 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?

4%Very liberal ......................................................

4%Somewhat liberal ............................................

18%Moderate.........................................................

35%Somewhat conservative..................................

39%Very conservative ...........................................

Q22 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

49%Woman ...........................................................

51%Man.................................................................

Q23 If you are a Republican, press 1. If you are an

independent or identify with another party,press 2.

74%Republican......................................................

26%Independent....................................................

Q24 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.

28%18 to 45...........................................................

46%46 to 65...........................................................

26%Older than 65 ..................................................


7/58

March 11-13, 2016survey of 749 likely Republican primary voters






Base

Republican President Primary

TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio

DonaldTrump Undecided

Primary Party Vote

Republican primary

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Base


Ted

Cruz

John

Kasich

Marco

Rubio

Donald

Trump UndecidedRepublican PresidentPrimary

Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

33% 100% - - - -

11% - 100% - - -

7% - - 100% - -

44% - - - 100% -

5% - - - - 100%

Base

Republican PresidentPrimary

TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio

DonaldTrump

Committed to ChoiceYes/No

Firmly committed toyour current choice

It’s possible you’llchange your mind

between now and theprimary

83% 84% 65% 68% 89%

17% 16% 35% 32% 11%


8/58







Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Republican PresidentPrimary SecondChoice

Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

18% - 21% 46% 28% 1%

25% 21% - 39% 33% 8%

21% 40% 34% - 8% 11%

11% 24% 22% 9% - 4%

25% 15% 24% 7% 31% 76%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Cruz Favorabilit y

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

51% 96% 14% 45% 28% 40%

35% 2% 63% 30% 56% 21%

14% 2% 23% 26% 16% 39%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Kasich Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

60% 54% 92% 62% 59% 34%

23% 31% 3% 15% 23% 18%

17% 14% 5% 23% 18% 48%


9/58







Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Rubio Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

39% 58% 40% 89% 19% 32%

48% 32% 47% 4% 69% 36%

12% 10% 13% 7% 12% 32%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Trump Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

56% 24% 19% 29% 97% 29%

38% 70% 72% 64% 2% 31%

6% 6% 9% 8% 1% 40%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Trump/Rubio/Cruz

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Not sure

47% 3% 22% 9% 97% 12%

13% 7% 37% 88% 1% 7%

33% 87% 20% 3% 1% 20%

7% 2% 21% - 1% 62%


10/58







Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Cruz/Rubio

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Not sure

56% 88% 29% 13% 47% 39%

25% 11% 53% 87% 21% 18%

19% 2% 17% - 33% 43%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Cruz/Trump

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Not sure

43% 97% 39% 70% 1% 29%

49% 2% 34% 20% 96% 17%

8% 2% 27% 10% 3% 55%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Kasich/Trump

John Kasich

Donald Trump

Not sure

37% 57% 95% 73% 2% 41%

55% 30% 3% 14% 97% 29%

8% 13% 1% 14% 2% 30%

Base


Ted

Cruz

John

Kasich

Marco

Rubio

Donald

Trump Undecided

Rubio/Trump

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Not sure

33% 58% 58% 89% 1% 25%

58% 31% 26% 9% 97% 38%

8% 12% 17% 2% 1% 38%


11/58







Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Republican SenatePrimary Vote

Larry Holmquist

Paul Wright

Greg Brannon

Richard Burr

Undecided

3% 5% 4% - 3% 3%

4% 1% 8% 6% 6% 1%

20% 31% 13% 7% 16% 16%

48% 46% 47% 69% 50% 26%

24% 17% 27% 18% 25% 55%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Republican Governor Primary Vote

Pat McCrory

Charles Kenneth Moss

C. Robert Brawley

Undecided

70% 77% 61% 82% 68% 47%

7% 4% 9% 3% 9% 4%

6% 6% 6% 4% 7% -

18% 14% 24% 11% 16% 49%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Republican AttorneyGeneral Primary Vote

Buck Newton

Jim O’Neill

Undecided

27% 38% 22% 21% 23% 18%

33% 24% 45% 37% 38% 13%

40% 38% 34% 42% 39% 69%


12/58







Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


RepublicanCommissioner of

Agr icul ture PrimaryVote

Andy Stevens

Steve Troxler

Undecided

15% 15% 12% 15% 17% 4%

48% 51% 55% 47% 48% 22%

37% 34% 33% 37% 36% 74%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


RepublicanCommissioner of Insurance PrimaryVote

Joe McLaughlin

Ron Pierce

Mike Causey

Undecided

19% 18% 27% 11% 20% 5%

11% 10% 13% 6% 12% 10%

24% 26% 18% 40% 23% 13%

46% 46% 42% 43% 45% 72%

Base


TedCruz

JohnKasich

MarcoRubio


Bond Proposal Vote

Vote for the bondproposal

Vote against the bondproposal

Not sure

47% 44% 55% 70% 43% 45%

43% 48% 37% 21% 47% 26%

10% 7% 8% 9% 10% 29%


13/58







Base

Committed to Choice Yes/No


It’s possible you’ll change your mind between now and the primary

Primary Party Vote

Republican primary

100% 100% 100%

Base


Firmly committed to

your current choice

It’s possible you’ll change your

mind between now and the primaryRepublican PresidentPrimary

Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

35% 35% 33%

12% 9% 24%

7% 6% 13%

46% 50% 29%

Base








83% 100% -

17% - 100%


14/58







Base





Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

19% 18% 22%

26% 27% 17%

21% 21% 21%

12% 10% 19%

23% 23% 21%

Base




Cruz Favorabilit y

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

52% 51% 52%

36% 38% 25%

12% 10% 23%

Base




Kasich Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

61% 61% 62%

23% 25% 11%

16% 13% 26%


15/58







Base




Rubio Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

40% 38% 47%

49% 51% 39%

11% 10% 14%

Base




Trump Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

58% 60% 48%

38% 37% 41%

4% 3% 11%

Base




Trump/Rubio/Cruz

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Not sure

49% 53% 31%

14% 12% 24%

34% 33% 36%

4% 2% 9%


16/58







Base




Cruz/Rubio

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Not sure

57% 57% 56%

26% 24% 35%

18% 19% 9%

Base




Cruz/Trump

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Not sure

44% 41% 54%

51% 54% 33%

6% 4% 13%

Base




Kasich/Trump

John Kasich

Donald Trump

Not sure

37% 36% 43%

57% 59% 42%

6% 5% 15%

Base


Firmly committed to

your current choice

It’s possible you’ll change your

mind between now and the primary

Rubio/Trump

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Not sure

34% 32% 45%

59% 62% 46%

7% 6% 9%


17/58







Base





Larry Holmquist

Paul Wright

Greg Brannon

Richard Burr

Undecided

3% 4% -

5% 5% 4%

20% 22% 13%

50% 47% 60%

22% 22% 23%

Base





Pat McCrory


C. Robert Brawley

Undecided

71% 72% 68%

7% 7% 6%

6% 6% 6%

16% 15% 20%

Base





Buck Newton

Jim O’Neill

Undecided

28% 29% 22%

34% 34% 32%

38% 37% 46%


18/58







Base






Andy Stevens

Steve Troxler

Undecided

16% 16% 15%

49% 48% 55%

35% 36% 30%

Base





Joe McLaughlin

Ron Pierce

Mike Causey

Undecided

20% 20% 17%

11% 11% 11%

25% 25% 23%

45% 44% 49%

Base




Bond Proposal Vote



Not sure

47% 44% 60%

44% 47% 29%

9% 8% 12%


19/58







Base

Already VotedYes/No

Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Primary Party Vote

Republican primary

100% 100% 100%

Base

Already Vot edYes/No

Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet


Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

33% 38% 32%

11% 11% 11%

7% 4% 8%

44% 46% 43%

5% 1% 7%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet





83% 95% 79%

17% 5% 21%


20/58







Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet


Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

18% 17% 18%

25% 25% 24%

21% 21% 21%

11% 10% 12%

25% 27% 25%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Cruz Favorabilit y

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

51% 55% 50%

35% 37% 35%

14% 8% 15%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Kasich Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

60% 60% 60%

23% 31% 20%

17% 9% 20%


21/58







Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Rubio Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

39% 40% 39%

48% 52% 47%

12% 9% 13%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Trump Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

56% 57% 56%

38% 41% 37%

6% 2% 7%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Trump/Rubio/Cruz

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Not sure

47% 48% 47%

13% 13% 14%

33% 35% 32%

7% 4% 8%


22/58







Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Cruz/Rubio

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Not sure

56% 57% 55%

25% 24% 26%

19% 19% 19%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Cruz/Trump

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Not sure

43% 42% 43%

49% 50% 48%

9% 8% 9%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Kasich/Trump

John Kasich

Donald Trump

Not sure

37% 37% 37%

55% 58% 54%

8% 5% 8%


23/58







Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Rubio/Trump

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Not sure

33% 31% 34%

58% 61% 57%

9% 8% 9%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet


Larry Holmquist

Paul Wright

Greg Brannon

Richard Burr

Undecided

3% 5% 3%

4% 5% 4%

20% 32% 17%

48% 49% 48%

24% 9% 28%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet


Pat McCrory


C. Robert Brawley

Undecided

70% 74% 69%

7% 9% 6%

6% 11% 5%

18% 6% 21%


24/58







Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet


Buck Newton

Jim O’Neill

Undecided

27% 37% 24%

33% 44% 29%

40% 19% 46%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet



Andy Stevens

Steve Troxler

Undecided

15% 18% 14%

48% 61% 44%

37% 21% 42%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet


Joe McLaughlin

Ron Pierce

Mike Causey

Undecided

19% 27% 16%

11% 19% 9%

24% 29% 22%

46% 24% 53%


25/58







Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Bond Proposal Vote



Not sure

47% 50% 46%

43% 48% 42%

10% 2% 12%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal

Somewhatliberal Moderate

Somewhatconservative

Veryconservative

Primary Party Vote

Republican primary

100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

33% 20% 21% 19% 31% 44%

11% 6% 19% 25% 10% 5%

7% 6% 8% 10% 8% 4%

44% 56% 51% 39% 44% 43%

5% 12% - 8% 6% 3%


26/58







Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative





83% 79% 86% 73% 84% 87%

17% 21% 14% 27% 16% 13%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

18% 22% 16% 15% 16% 21%

25% 18% 8% 24% 28% 24%

21% 22% 13% 22% 23% 19%

11% - 7% 10% 11% 14%

25% 38% 57% 30% 22% 22%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Cruz Favorabilit y

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

51% 48% 37% 37% 47% 63%

35% 38% 59% 41% 37% 28%

14% 14% 4% 22% 16% 9%


27/58







Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Kasich Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

60% 51% 45% 61% 63% 59%

23% 29% 51% 15% 20% 26%

17% 20% 4% 24% 17% 16%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Rubio Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

39% 21% 39% 36% 45% 38%

48% 67% 61% 45% 45% 50%

12% 12% - 19% 11% 12%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Trump Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

56% 71% 46% 50% 57% 59%

38% 29% 54% 41% 36% 37%

6% - - 9% 8% 4%


28/58







Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Trump/Rubio/Cruz

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Not sure

47% 49% 50% 47% 47% 47%

13% 16% 23% 20% 17% 6%

33% 11% 25% 21% 31% 43%

7% 25% 2% 13% 6% 4%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Cruz/Rubio

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Not sure

56% 52% 21% 40% 49% 72%

25% 14% 48% 37% 30% 14%

19% 34% 31% 23% 20% 14%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Cruz/Trump

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Not sure

43% 17% 27% 36% 44% 49%

49% 59% 67% 48% 49% 46%

9% 25% 6% 16% 7% 5%


29/58







Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Kasich/Trump

John Kasich

Donald Trump

Not sure

37% 28% 40% 44% 41% 32%

55% 56% 51% 44% 55% 60%

8% 16% 8% 12% 4% 8%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Rubio/Trump

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Not sure

33% 20% 33% 35% 36% 32%

58% 62% 65% 48% 57% 63%

9% 18% 1% 16% 7% 6%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Larry Holmquist

Paul Wright

Greg Brannon

Richard Burr

Undecided

3% 16% 6% 4% 2% 3%

4% - 21% 6% 5% 2%

20% 15% 9% 10% 15% 31%

48% 48% 20% 49% 56% 44%

24% 21% 44% 32% 22% 20%


30/58







Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Pat McCrory


C. Robert Brawley

Undecided

70% 50% 46% 61% 73% 76%

7% 22% 20% 10% 4% 5%

6% - 5% 6% 6% 7%

18% 28% 29% 23% 17% 13%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Buck Newton

Jim O’Neill

Undecided

27% 16% 26% 23% 29% 30%

33% 35% 42% 31% 36% 29%

40% 48% 32% 46% 36% 41%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative



Andy Stevens

Steve Troxler

Undecided

15% 22% 21% 17% 16% 12%

48% 33% 44% 40% 50% 51%

37% 45% 34% 43% 34% 37%


31/58







Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Joe McLaughlin

Ron Pierce

Mike Causey

Undecided

19% 21% 28% 12% 23% 17%

11% 41% 13% 15% 8% 9%

24% 16% 28% 20% 24% 27%

46% 23% 30% 53% 46% 47%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Bond Proposal Vote



Not sure

47% 50% 40% 55% 49% 42%

43% 49% 59% 29% 42% 49%

10% 2% 1% 16% 9% 9%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Primary Party Vote

Republican primary

100% 1 0 0% 1 00 %


32/58







Base

Gender

Woman Man


Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

33% 29% 37%

11% 12% 11%

7% 9% 5%

44% 43% 45%

5% 8% 3%

Base

Gender

Woman Man





83% 80% 86%

17% 20% 14%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

18% 19% 17%

25% 23% 26%

21% 20% 22%

11% 10% 13%

25% 28% 23%


33/58







Base

Gender

Woman Man

Cruz Favorabilit y

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

51% 47% 55%

35% 35% 35%

14% 18% 10%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Kasich Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

60% 55% 65%

23% 21% 24%

17% 24% 11%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Rubio Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

39% 41% 38%

48% 44% 53%

12% 15% 9%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Trump Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

56% 55% 57%

38% 38% 38%

6% 7% 5%


34/58







Base

Gender

Woman Man

Trump/Rubio/Cruz

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Not sure

47% 48% 46%

13% 14% 12%

33% 29% 36%

7% 9% 5%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Cruz/Rubio

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Not sure

56% 54% 57%

25% 26% 25%

19% 20% 18%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Cruz/Trump

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Not sure

43% 42% 44%

49% 48% 49%

9% 10% 7%

Base

Gender

Woman Man

Kasich/Trump

John Kasich

Donald Trump

Not sure

37% 38% 36%

55% 54% 56%

8% 8% 8%


35/58







Base

Gender

Woman Man

Rubio/Trump

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Not sure

33% 35% 32%

58% 57% 60%

9% 8% 9%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Larry Holmquist

Paul Wright

Greg Brannon

Richard Burr

Undecided

3% 3% 4%

4% 4% 5%

20% 16% 24%

48% 46% 51%

24% 32% 16%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Pat McCrory


C. Robert Brawley

Undecided

70% 67% 72%

7% 5% 8%

6% 5% 7%

18% 23% 13%


36/58







Base

Gender

Woman Man


Buck Newton

Jim O’Neill

Undecided

27% 23% 31%

33% 28% 38%

40% 49% 31%

Base

Gender

Woman Man



Andy Stevens

Steve Troxler

Undecided

15% 16% 14%

48% 39% 56%

37% 45% 30%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Joe McLaughlin

Ron Pierce

Mike Causey

Undecided

19% 16% 22%

11% 11% 11%

24% 21% 27%

46% 52% 40%


37/58







Base

Gender

Woman Man

Bond Proposal Vote



Not sure

47% 48% 46%

43% 35% 51%

10% 17% 3%

Base

Party

Republican Independent

Primary Party Vote

Republican primary

100% 100% 100%

Base

Party


Republican President

PrimaryTed Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

33% 34% 31%

11% 8% 21%

7% 8% 4%

44% 46% 37%

5% 5% 7%


38/58







Base

Party






83% 85% 78%

17% 15% 22%

Base

Party



Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

18% 20% 13%

25% 24% 26%

21% 21% 21%

11% 10% 14%

25% 25% 27%

Base

Party


Cruz Favorabilit y

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

51% 53% 44%

35% 34% 38%

14% 12% 19%


39/58







Base

Party


Kasich Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

60% 58% 66%

23% 25% 18%

17% 18% 16%

Base

Party


Rubio Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

39% 42% 33%

48% 46% 54%

12% 12% 13%

Base

Party


Trump Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

56% 59% 49%

38% 35% 44%

6% 6% 6%

Base

Party


Trump/Rubio/Cruz

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Not sure

47% 48% 43%

13% 13% 15%

33% 33% 31%

7% 6% 10%


40/58







Base

Party


Cruz/Rubio

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Not sure

56% 57% 53%

25% 24% 27%

19% 19% 20%

Base

Party


Cruz/Trump

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Not sure

43% 43% 42%

49% 50% 44%

9% 7% 14%

Base

Party


Kasich/Trump

John Kasich

Donald Trump

Not sure

37% 34% 47%

55% 58% 48%

8% 9% 5%

Base

Party


Rubio/Trump

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Not sure

33% 33% 34%

58% 60% 53%

9% 7% 13%


41/58







Base

Party



Larry Holmquist

Paul Wright

Greg Brannon

Richard Burr

Undecided

3% 4% 3%

4% 5% 4%

20% 19% 22%

48% 50% 44%

24% 22% 28%

Base

Party



Pat McCrory


C. Robert Brawley

Undecided

70% 70% 69%

7% 6% 8%

6% 6% 6%

18% 18% 16%

Base

Party



Buck Newton

Jim O’Neill

Undecided

27% 24% 36%

33% 35% 27%

40% 41% 37%


42/58







Base

Party




Andy Stevens

Steve Troxler

Undecided

15% 13% 21%

48% 50% 42%

37% 37% 37%

Base

Party



Joe McLaughlin

Ron Pierce

Mike Causey

Undecided

19% 20% 16%

11% 11% 11%

24% 25% 23%

46% 45% 50%

Base

Party


Bond Proposal Vote



Not sure

47% 47% 47%

43% 43% 43%

10% 10% 10%


43/58







Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Primary Party Vote

Republican primary

100% 100% 100% 100%

Base

Age

18 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65Republican PresidentPrimary

Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

33% 27% 38% 31%

11% 10% 9% 15%

7% 7% 6% 7%

44% 46% 43% 43%

5% 10% 4% 4%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65





83% 81% 85% 81%

17% 19% 15% 19%


44/58







Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65


Ted Cruz

John Kasich

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Undecided

18% 19% 18% 17%

25% 19% 26% 29%

21% 23% 21% 19%

11% 10% 13% 10%

25% 30% 23% 25%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Cruz Favorabilit y

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

51% 52% 52% 48%

35% 34% 35% 37%

14% 15% 13% 15%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Kasich Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

60% 46% 64% 68%

23% 25% 24% 18%

17% 29% 12% 14%


45/58







Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Rubio Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

39% 34% 41% 43%

48% 48% 51% 45%

12% 18% 8% 12%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Trump Favorability

Favorable

Unfavorable

Not sure

56% 59% 56% 54%

38% 35% 39% 38%

6% 6% 5% 8%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Trump/Rubio/Cruz

Donald Trump

Marco Rubio

Ted Cruz

Not sure

47% 49% 46% 47%

13% 15% 12% 14%

33% 28% 37% 32%

7% 8% 5% 8%


46/58







Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Cruz/Rubio

Ted Cruz

Marco Rubio

Not sure

56% 55% 56% 55%

25% 27% 24% 26%

19% 17% 20% 19%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Cruz/Trump

Ted Cruz

Donald Trump

Not sure

43% 35% 47% 43%

49% 55% 45% 48%

9% 10% 7% 10%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Kasich/Trump

John Kasich

Donald Trump

Not sure

37% 34% 36% 43%

55% 57% 56% 51%

8% 9% 8% 6%

Base

Age

18 to

45

46 to

65

Older

than 65

Rubio/Trump

Marco Rubio

Donald Trump

Not sure

33% 31% 34% 35%

58% 61% 59% 54%

9% 9% 7% 10%


47/58







Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65


Larry Holmquist

Paul Wright

Greg Brannon

Richard Burr

Undecided

3% 6% 2% 3%

4% 7% 4% 3%

20% 23% 21% 15%

48% 33% 50% 62%

24% 31% 24% 16%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65


Pat McCrory


C. Robert Brawley

Undecided

70% 58% 73% 78%

7% 10% 6% 4%

6% 6% 6% 7%

18% 27% 15% 12%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65


Buck Newton

Jim O’Neill

Undecided

27% 26% 28% 28%

33% 29% 33% 35%

40% 45% 39% 36%


48/58







Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65



Andy Stevens

Steve Troxler

Undecided

15% 19% 13% 14%

48% 39% 51% 51%

37% 42% 36% 35%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65


Joe McLaughlin

Ron Pierce

Mike Causey

Undecided

19% 18% 17% 22%

11% 18% 8% 9%

24% 28% 24% 19%

46% 36% 50% 50%

Base

Age

18 to45

46 to65

Older than 65

Bond Proposal Vote



Not sure

47% 44% 46% 51%

43% 43% 46% 38%

10% 12% 8% 11%


49/58

March 11-13, 2016Survey of 746 likely Democratic primary voters






North Carolina Survey Results

Q1 Will you vote in the Democratic or Republicanprimary for President, Governor, and otherimportant offices, or will you not vote in aprimary?

100%Democratic primary.........................................

0%Republican primary .........................................

0%Will not vote in a primary.................................

Q2 The Democratic candidates for US Senate areErnest Reeves, Chris Rey, Deborah Ross, andKevin Griffin. If the election was today, whowould you vote for?

8%Ernest Reeves ................................................

8%Chris Rey ........................................................

40%Deborah Ross.................................................

4%Kevin Griffin ....................................................

41%Undecided.......................................................

Q3 The Democratic candidates for Governor areKen Spaulding and Roy Cooper. If the electionwas today, who would you vote for?

17%Ken Spaulding ................................................

53%Roy Cooper .....................................................

30%Undecided.......................................................

Q4 The Democratic candidates for LieutenantGovernor are Holly Jones, Ronald Newton,Robert Earl Wilson, and Linda Coleman. If theelection was today, who would you vote for?

18%Holly Jones .....................................................

5%Ronald Newton ...............................................

7%Robert Earl Wilson ..........................................

32%Linda Coleman................................................

38%Undecided.......................................................

Q5 The Democratic candidates for AttorneyGeneral are Josh Stein and Marcus Williams. Ifthe election was today, who would you votefor?

33%Josh Stein .......................................................

23%Marcus Williams..............................................

43%Undecided.......................................................

Q6 The Democratic candidates for Commissionerof Labor are Charles Meeker and MazieFerguson. If the election was today, who wouldyou vote for?

33%Charles Meeker ..............................................

22%Mazie Ferguson ..............................................

44%Undecided.......................................................

Q7 The Democratic candidates for Superintendentof Public Instruction are Henry Pankey andJune Atkinson. If the election was today, whowould you vote for?

11%Henry Pankey .................................................

49%June Atkinson .................................................

40%Undecided.......................................................

Q8 The Democratic candidates for State Treasurerare Dan Blue III and Ron Elmer. If the electionwas today, who would you vote for?

36%Dan Blue III .....................................................

22%Ron Elmer .......................................................

43%Undecided.......................................................


50/58







Q9 There is a 2 billion dollar bond on the ballot to

fund capital improvement and new facilities forthe state including the construction andfurnishing of new facilities for the UNC system,the North Carolina Community College System,water and sewer systems, the State’s NationalGuard, the Department of Agriculture andConsumer Services, attractions and parks, andthe Department of Public Safety. If the electionwas today, would you vote for or against thisbond proposal?

67%Vote for the bond proposal..............................

18%Vote against the bond proposal ......................

15%Not sure ..........................................................Q10 Have you already voted using Early Voting or

an absentee ballot, or have you not voted yet?

30% Already voted..................................................

70%Haven't voted yet ............................................

Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhatconservative, or very conservative?

20%Very liberal ......................................................

26%Somewhat liberal ............................................

37%Moderate.........................................................

13%Somewhat conservative..................................

5%Very conservative ...........................................

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

59%Woman ...........................................................

41%Man.................................................................

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If anindependent, press 2.

82%Democrat ........................................................

18%Independent....................................................

Q14 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If African American, press 3. If other, press 4.

3%Hispanic..........................................................

55%White ..............................................................

37% African American.............................................

5%Other ...............................................................

Q15 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.

37%18 to 45...........................................................

41%46 to 65...........................................................

22%Older than 65 ..................................................


51/58

March 11-13, 2016survey of 747 likely Democratic primary voters






Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Senate DemocraticPrimary

Ernest Reeves

Chris Rey

Deborah Ross

Kevin Griffin

Undecided

8% 8% 8%

8% 17% 4%

40% 50% 35%

4% 5% 3%

41% 20% 50%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Governor DemocraticPrimary

Ken Spaulding

Roy Cooper

Undecided

17% 22% 15%

53% 68% 47%

30% 10% 39%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Lieutenant Governor Democratic Primary

Holly Jones

Ronald Newton

Robert Earl WilsonLinda Coleman

Undecided

18% 29% 14%

5% 2% 7%

7% 6% 7%

32% 46% 26%

38% 18% 47%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Attorney GeneralDemocratic Primary

Josh Stein

Marcus Will iams

Undecided

33% 51% 26%

23% 29% 20%

43% 20% 54%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Labor Commissioner Democratic Primary

Charles Meeker

Mazie Ferguson

Undecided

33% 47% 27%

22% 28% 20%

44% 25% 53%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Superintendent of Public InstructionDemocratic Primary

Henry Pankey

June Atkinson

Undecided

11% 15% 9%

49% 65% 42%

40% 20% 48%


52/58







Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

State Treasurer Democratic Primary

Dan Blue III

Ron Elmer

Undecided

36% 57% 26%

22% 22% 21%

43% 21% 52%

Base


Alreadyvoted

Haven'tvoted yet

Bond Proposal Vote


Vote against t he bondproposal

Not sure

67% 76% 63%

18% 19% 18%

15% 5% 19%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Ernest Reeves

Chris Rey

Deborah Ross

Kevin Griffin

Undecided

8% 12% 6% 8% 4% -

8% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6%

40% 46% 46% 37% 35% 13%

4% 4% 4% 3% 6% 5%

41% 29% 35% 44% 48% 76%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Ken Spaulding

Roy Cooper

Undecided

17% 18% 14% 17% 23% 6%

53% 60% 60% 50% 45% 40%

30% 23% 26% 32% 32% 54%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Holly Jones

Ronald Newton

Robert Earl Wilson

Linda Coleman

Undecided

18% 28% 19% 14% 21% 3%

5% 5% 7% 3% 6% 2%

7% 6% 4% 9% 10% 11%

32% 36% 37% 32% 23% 13%

38% 26% 33% 43% 40% 70%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Attor ney Gener alDemocratic Primary

Josh Stein

Marcus Williams

Undecided

33% 44% 37% 32% 20% 19%

23% 20% 22% 22% 31% 27%

43% 36% 41% 46% 49% 54%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative


Charles Meeker

Mazie Ferguson

Undecided

33% 43% 37% 28% 31% 24%

22% 24% 26% 20% 21% 18%

44% 33% 37% 52% 48% 57%


53/58







Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Superintendent of Public InstructionDemocratic Primary

Henry Pankey

June Atkinson

Undecided

11% 17% 10% 7% 20% -

49% 47% 54% 51% 42% 43%

40% 36% 37% 42% 38% 57%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

State Treasurer Democratic Primary

Dan Blue III

Ron Elmer

Undecided

36% 38% 41% 35% 31% 15%

22% 19% 26% 18% 22% 31%

43% 43% 33% 47% 47% 54%

Base

Ideology

Veryliberal



Veryconservative

Bond Proposal Vote



Not sure

67% 72% 71% 68% 56% 58%

18% 16% 17% 18% 22% 18%

15% 12% 12% 14% 21% 24%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Ernest Reeves

Chris Rey

Deborah Ross

Kevin Griffin

Undecided

8% 6% 9%

8% 8% 8%

40% 37% 44%

4% 3% 6%

41% 46% 33%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Ken Spaulding

Roy Cooper

Undecided

17% 15% 20%

53% 52% 56%

30% 34% 24%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Holly Jones

Ronald Newton

Robert Earl Wilson

Linda Coleman

Undecided

18% 18% 19%

5% 4% 7%

7% 5% 1 0%

32% 30% 34%

38% 42% 31%


54/58







Base

Gender

Woman Man

Atto rney GeneralDemocratic Primary

Josh Stein

Marcus Will iams

Undecided

33% 29% 40%

23% 23% 23%

43% 48% 37%

Base

Gender

Woman Man


Charles Meeker

Mazie Ferguson

PPP Poll North Carolina - With Head to Head Matchups

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