PP16832/01/2013 (031128) Malaysiaupload.xinhua08.com/2012/0221/1329811726609.pdf · (i) LNG regas...

Kim Eng Hong Kong is a subsid iary of Malayan B anking B erhad

SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

Malaysia

17 October 2011

PP16832/01/2012 (029059)

Sector Update 21 February 2012

PP16832/01/2013 (031128)

of 2

Oil & Gas The golden age of gas?

Maintain sector Overweight. The recent talk on gas supply dynamics

given by the President of the International Gas Union (IGU), Datuk (Dr)

Abdul Rahim, reaffirmed our positive views of the natural gas market.

Malaysia will embrace LNG imports this July to address supply

bottlenecks. Against this backdrop, service providers in the gas supply

chain would benefit. We are Overweight on the sector on expectations

of continuous positive newsflow benefiting the service providers.

Natural gas: A commodity growing in importance. Natural gas is set

to overtake coal as the second-largest fuel source by 2030. Demand

growth of 2% p.a. is the highest among the fuels (average: 1.2% p.a.).

At this rate, gas would account for 25% of total generation energy mix

by 2035 (2010: 23%). Asia, notably China, is the largest consumer of

gas. Against this backdrop, LNG trade is set to expand at a rapid pace,

as output grows to 594m tpa by 2020 (2008: 376m tpa). Australia will

be the largest LNG supplier in future, with a forecasted production of

100m tpa, overtaking Qatar‟s 77m tpa.

Malaysia is embracing structural changes in the natural gas

dynamics. Despite being a net exporter of natural gas with the 15th

largest gas reservoir in the world, Malaysia will receive its first imports

in 2012. Up to 3.8m tpa of gas (from the Lekas regasification plant in

Melaka) will be injected into the domestic pipeline system. This would

effectively lift gas supply by 24% and single-handedly address the gas

curtailment issue which has plagued the power sector since 2011.

Another 3.8m tpa of LNG supply will come in by 2017 as PETRONAS

commercialises its RAPID project in Pengerang, Johor.

Domestic gas price structure is set to transform. As gas supply

from imports increases, domestic average selling prices (ASPs) for

natural gas will rise as subsidies are set to fall. Malaysia‟s current gas

prices are among the lowest in Asia. Plans are in place for a systematic

RM3/mmBtu adjustment in price every six months. Based on the

projection, Malaysia will pay gas prices equal to market rates by 2016.

Nevertheless, the price increase is not cast in stone just yet. A strong

political will is required to execute this exercise.

Championing the champion. The 3.8m tpa of LNG capacity from the

Lekas regasification plant (from Jul 2012) would add 505mmscfd of gas

into the Peninsular Gas Utilisation (PGU) system. This will effectively lift

domestic gas supply by 24% (based on 2,066 mmscfd of gas

transmitted for 2011). Longer-term growth will be further supported by

the second and third regasification plants that will be constructed in

Johor and Sabah, which would raise supply by another 3.8m tpa come

2017 (from the Johor plant alone).

Summary of consensus valuations (calenderised)

Company Mkt cap Price EPS (sen) EPS Grth (%) PE (x) DPS (sen) Div Yield (%) (RM’m) (RM) 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F 12F 13F

Petronas Gas 32,530.4 16.44 72.4 72.7 0.0 0.5 22.7 22.6 50.0 50.0 3.0 3.0

PGN* 87,875.5 3,625 282.0 310.7 6.3 10.2 12.9 11.7 151.5 162.8 4.2 4.5

Source: Bloomberg; * IDR currency

Overweight (unchanged)

Wong Chew Hann, CA [email protected] (603) 2297 8688

21 February 2012 of 12

Oil & Gas 17 October 2011

Page 1 of 2

Let’s talk about gas

We recently hosted a „Gas Sector Outlook‟ session with Datuk (Dr)

Abdul Rahim Hashim, President of the International Gas Union (IGU)

and Malaysian Gas Association, as the keynote speaker. The topic of

the presentation was “The transformation of the global gas market and

the emerging gas scenarios in Malaysia”. Key highlights are as follows.

Demand for natural gas is strong. Natural gas is set to grow nearly

twice as fast relative to the total global energy mix. The 2.0% p.a.

growth up to 2035 will be the strongest among other energy sources

(i.e. oil, coal, biomass, nuclear, hydro; total energy growth: 1.2% p.a.). It

is estimated that natural gas should overtake coal as the second-largest

energy fuel after oil by 2030. Against this backdrop, natural gas‟ share

of the total energy mix will rise to 25% by 2035 (from 23% in 2010).

The key drivers to higher gas demand. The appetite for gas from

Asia, notably China, is strong. Under its 12th Five-Year Plan, the China

market alone will make up nearly 30% of global gas growth. The recent

nuclear energy crisis in Fukushima, Japan also expedited natural gas

as a preferred substitute.

Global LNG trade is also developing rapidly, as trade volume grows and

becomes more flexible (i.e. more short- to medium-term contracts vs.

long-term trades). The widespread development of unconventional gas

(i.e. coal-bed methane, shale) as well as the lower cost of production

(i.e.USD3-9/mmBtu) also aided growth.

The global LNG outlook. The share of LNG in global energy markets

is set to grow from 31% in 2008 to 42% by 2035, as volume traded

more than doubles over the projection period. On the supply side,

global LNG output is set to grow by 55% from 376m tpa in 2010 to

594m tpa in 2020. Australia is well placed to become the LNG leader by

2020, overtaking Qatar as the largest producer.

World primary energy demand by fuel Natural gas consumption by region

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

(mtoe) Oil

Gas

Coal

Biomass

Nuclear

Other renewables

Hydro

2035

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Rest of the world

Africa

Russia

Latin America

India

Middle East

OECD total

China

(bcm)

Source: IGC Sources: IEA, OECD



Page 1 of 2

Global LNG supply-demand outlook

(bcma)

Sources: BP Statistical Review 2011, EIA, GIINGL, Booz & Company

Rising LNG share in the world gas trade

10

20

30

40

50

0

300

600

900

1200

2000 2008 2020 2035

Pipelines (LHS) LNG (LHS) Share of LNG (RHS)(bcm) (%)

Source: IGU



Page 1 of 2

Malaysia’s natural gas and LNG perspective

Reserves. Malaysia‟s geological gas reserves stood at about 82 trillion

cubic feet (tcf) in 2011 and the country is reputed to have the 15th

largest reservoir in the world, amounting to 1.3% of global reserves.

Approximately 63% of the gas reserves are located offshore Sabah

(15%) and Sarawak (48%), with offshore Peninsular Malaysia (primarily

Terengganu) accounting for the remaining 38%.

Production. Malaysia‟s natural gas production stood at 2.0 tcf (7,021

mmscfd – Sabah: 422mmscfd (6%), Sarawak: 3,904mmscfd (56%),

Peninsular Malaysia: 2,695mmscfd (38%)) – in 2011, delivering about

2% of global natural gas production. Based on these statistics,

Malaysia‟s production life cycle is theoretically 34 years.

Malaysia’s natural gas reserves (tcf) Malaysia’s natural gas production (tcf)

79.7

78.0

80.5

81.4

80.6 80.6

81.3

82.4

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1.66

1.92 1.92 1.91

1.97 1.97 1.951.98

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sources: PETRONAS, Maybank-IB Sources: Department of Statistics, Maybank-IB

Consumption. 2,066 mmscfd of gas (38% of production) was injected

into Petronas Gas‟ PGU system in 2011, of which 672 mmscfd of the

gas flow was delivered from the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development

Area {JDA} (373mmscfd), West Natuna (211mmscfd) and PM3 CAA

(88mmscfd) fields. Of the total injected into the PGU, the

power sector (TNB and IPPs) consumed 1,054 mmscfd of gas

124 mmscfd of gas was exported to Singapore

888 mmscfd of gas was allocated to the non-power industry

Gas Malaysia‟s portion totaled 346 mmscfd

PETRONAS‟ clients and its internal consumption took up the

remaining 542 mmscfd



Page 1 of 2

Natural gas supply chain in Peninsular Malaysia (in mmscfd)

(including internal

consumption)

Imports

Offshore Peninsular

West Natuna

PETRONAS(Gas wholesaler)

Export to Singapore

Gas Malaysia

PETRONAS

customers

IPPs

TNB

Petronas Gas (through PGU

system)

Power sector

Non-power

sector

M’sia Thai

Joint Dev. Area

2,023

373

1,054 (51%)

124 (6%)

888 (43%)

542 (61%)

346 (39%)

(Processing and

transmission)

2,066

PETRONAScustomers

IPPs

TNB

Non-power sector

685 (65%)

369 (35%)

PM3 CAA

88

211

Sources: Various, Maybank-IB



Page 1 of 2

Malaysia’s natural gas demand-supply outlook

Diminishing: Domestic natural gas production. Production growth

has been relatively flat over the past five years, owing to maturing

reserves and the absence of new gas field discoveries offshore

Peninsular Malaysia. Based on Wood Mackenzie‟s findings, gas supply

from Peninsular Malaysia‟s fields (which supplies to domestic needs) is

anticipated to plateau from 2015-17, and drop sharply from 2019-21.

Rising: Domestic natural gas consumption. At the same time,

domestic daily consumption of natural gas has been rising, by 1% p.a.

over the last four years, owing to it being the more efficient and

affordable source of energy relative to oil and biomass. However,

growth has been constrained by the limited availability of supply.

Malaysia’s gas production forecast (2010-25) – mmscfd

5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.65.4 5.3

5.14.7

4.33.9

3.5

2.9

21.7

1.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

(mmscfd)

Sources: Wood Mackenzie, Maybank-IB

(i) LNG regas is a game-changer for long-term supply

LNG imports should address gas shortage concerns. The import of

LNG is touted as the long-term solution to feeding Malaysia‟s growing

gas demand. The first LNG imports amounting to 3.8m tpa will be

injected into the system by Jul 2012, and up to 7.6m tpa of LNG will

flow into the PGU by 2017.

Peninsular Malaysia’s average gas production & total curtailment days

2,193

2,012 2,058 2,0992,200 2,212

1,9992,124 2,146 2,140 2,109

1,899 1,929 1,979 1,953 1,846 1,785 1,8071,923 2,005 1,936 1,908 1,946 1,892

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11

Kerteh- ave.production (LHS) JDA- ave.production (LHS) Curtailment days (RHS)(mmscfd) (days)

Sources: Energy Commission, Maybank-IB



Page 1 of 2

Malaysia’s generation fuel mix

60.352.1 50.7 50.5 54.2 57.6

51.1 54.7 55.8 52.0 52.542.3 44.9 47.6 44.9 41.1 37.9 37.0

42.1 42.2 43.3 40.1 42.5 41.1

32.641.2 43.2 45.2

42.4 38.844.6 40.3 38.0 42.4 41.7

49.8 48.2 40.541.1 44.9

42.8 45.946.8 43.5 44.1 46.4 44.6 45.3

7.1 6.3 4.7 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.9 4.9 6.2 5.9 5.8 6.7 5.97.3

6.5 6.46.9 4.6

4.44.4 4.5 5.4 6.0 6.5

0.3 1.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.2 1.0 4.6 7.5 7.510.5 11.6

6.6 9.9 8.1 8.1 6.4 5.9

1.9 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11

Gas Coal Hydro Oil & Distillates Interconnection(%)

Sources: Energy Commission, Maybank-IB

Malaysia is committed to 7.6m tpa of additional LNG by 2017. 7.6m

tpa of LNG equates to 1,011 mmscfd of natural gas, or 40% of the gas

supply injected into the PGU system in 2010. This should offset the fall

in domestic fields‟ gas up to 2017 while maintaining Malaysia‟s gas

supply level at 5,977 mmscfd.

LNG supply commitment is already underway. We understand that

PETRONAS is already working towards ensuring availability of LNG

supply from various suppliers (i.e. Australia, Europe and Middle East),

both on short and long-term contracts.

PETRONAS’ LNG import commitments

Seller (Country) Scheduled delivery date

Duration (year)

Quantity (m tpa)

GDF Suez (France) Aug 2012 2.5 2.5

Qatargas(Qatar) 2013 20 1.5

Gladstone LNG (Australia) 2014 20 3.5

Total 7.5

Sources: Various, Maybank-IB

Malaysia is set to embrace third-party gas importation by Jul 2012.

The first LNG import will be injected into the system by Jul 2012. In

order to receive LNG that is required to be subsequently regassed for

transmission through the PGU system, a regasification plant and

receiving terminal (i.e. floating storage units, subsea and onshore

pipelines) is required.

First regas project being built in Melaka with a 3.8m tpa capacity.

Construction of the regas facilities aka „Project Lekas‟, developed by

Petronas Gas at Sungai Udang, Melaka is in progress. Based on the

LNG delivery schedule, Melaka‟s regas plant should hit its maximum

capacity in 2012.

South Johor has been identified to be the second regas base. We

reckon the planned regas plant, which will be larger in size than the one

in Melaka, will support PETRONAS‟ USD20b Refinery and

Petrochemical Industrial Development (RAPID) and the Iskandar

Development Region (IDR) programmes.



Page 1 of 2

A third regas terminal in Tawau? This would support a gas-fired

power plant there. In terms of size, we reckon the regas terminal would

be the smallest when compared against the Melaka and Johor facilities.

Planned regas terminals capacity

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0

Indonesia

Malaysia

Singapore

Phillippines

Thailand

Vietnam

10.5

7.6

6.0

5.3

5.0

3.0

Source: Petronas

(ii) New field, new gas, new growth

Malaysia to get additional gas from new fields by 2013.

Notwithstanding the regas programmes and new plants in Melaka,

Johor and Sabah which involve LNG imports, PETRONAS and its

Production Sharing Contract (PSC) partners will spend about RM15b to

develop a cluster of gas fields offshore Peninsular Malaysia.

Gas projects will be on an accelerated basis. PETRONAS expects

the first delivery of 100 mmscfd of gas by early 2013, and 250 mmscfd

by 2015 (3-9% of domestic consumption), from these new fields.

Malaysia’s gas production forecast (2010-25) – mmscfd

5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.14.7

4.33.9

3.52.9

2.0 1.7 1.5

0.3 0.5 0.50.5 0.5 1.0

1.01.0

1.01.0

1.0

1.01.0

1.0

0.1 0.10.3 0.3 0.3

0.30.3

0.30.3

0.3

0.30.3

0.3

5.9 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.2 3.3 3.0 2.8

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F

Gas supply from PM fields LNG Imports New PM fields(mmscfd)

Sources: Wood Mackenzie, Maybank-IB



Page 1 of 2

Peninsular Malaysia gas supply outlook

Source: PETRONAS

Malaysia’s natural gas market reform

From a regulated to an open market. Malaysia is in the process of a

structural transformation as it takes in LNG imports. An operating

framework has been mooted to reform the domestic market. With the:

(i) gas supply, (ii) transmission pipeline and regasification facilities, and

(iii) third-party access transportation tariff already in place, the natural

gas pricing mechanism is the next item to be addressed.

Gas subsidy will be gradually removed over the next five years.

The proposed reform by the Economic Planning Unit (EPU) will result in

natural gas prices being systematically increased by RM3.00/mmBtu

every six months until it meets market prices by 2016. The systematic

lift in ASP is aimed at eliminating the potential effect of demand

destruction for gas.

However, execution will be a challenge. While the proposal is ideal,

implementation is a challenge, for it requires strong political will as it

would impact the socio-economic outlook. As it is, it has already

experienced hiccups. The second planned price hike has missed the

Dec 2011 deadline, and the next revision in Jun 2012 too is likely to

face delays. The last revision was undertaken in Jun 2011.

Two-tier natural gas pricing? One option, we reckon, is for the natural

gas resources from Peninsular Malaysia fields to be subjected to the

EPU price structure, while the LNG import could be immediately priced

at market rates (i.e. two-tier pricing). The other likely scenarios would

be to have single-tier pricing for both sources of supply (i.e. Peninsular

Malaysia fields and LNG import), together with either adoption of the

EPU pricing structure or an entirely new tariff. Of these scenarios, we

think the two-tier gas price structure is more likely to be implemented.



Page 1 of 2

Gas subsidy rationalization reform

Sources: EPU, PM‟s Department, PETRONAS

The original schedule for M’sia to get to market pricing by 2016 South East Asia end-user gas price

6.4

14.31

10.70

13.70

16.70

19.70

22.70

25.70

28.70

31.70

34.70

37.70

40.70

9.40

17.99

11.05

14.05

17.05

20.05

23.05

26.05

29.05

32.05

35.05

38.05

41.05

11.32

23.88

15.3518.35

21.35

24.35

27.35

30.35

33.35

36.35

39.35

42.35

45.35

0

10

20

30

40

50

Mar-03 Aug-08 Mar-09 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15

Power Sector Gas M'sia Non-power sector(RM/ mmbtu)

Country Power Industry Spread

(USD/ mmBtu)

Vietnam 3.38 8.31 4.93

Malaysia 4.57 6.12 1.55

Indonesia 5.67 6.50 0.83

Thailand 7.71 13.24 5.53

Singapore 17.99 18.46 0.47

Sources: PETRONAS, Maybank-IB Sources: Various



Page 1 of 2

APPENDIX 1

Definition of Ratings

Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system:

BUY Total return is expected to be above 15% in the next 12 months

HOLD Total return is expected to be between -15% to 15% in the next 12 months

SELL Total return is expected to be below -15% in the next 12 months

Applicability of Ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are

only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not

carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):

Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings

BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth

CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE Ratio

Capex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter

CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset

DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On Equity DPS = Dividend Per Share

NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders‟ Funds

EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year

EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date

EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax

Disclaimer

This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sel l or a solicitation

of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each

security‟s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental

ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on

price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.Accordingly, investors may

receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to

provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the

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Page 1 of 2

APPENDIX 1

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