PowerTALKNews€¦ · Honda Halts Auto Production in Argentina China Plans 20,000 Electric Taxis...

© 2019 Power Systems Research | PowerTALK™ News | 1Questions, Comments? Contact Joe Delmont, Editor [email protected] | +1 651.905.8422 | www.powersys.com

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No Economic Growth Seen for NA

Innovation Name of the Game at Agritechnica 2019

John Deere Wins Gold at Agritechnica 2019

US Zero Turn Mower Growth Expected

Volvo Plans EV Charging Investment in Brazil

Honda Halts Auto Production in Argentina

China Plans 20,000 Electric Taxis

Japan Considers EV Subsidies

South Korea EV Exports Double

Philippines Eye Duty on Car Imports

India EV Market Needs Help

India Tractor Sales Grow

Russia Mobile Phone Firms Plan Charging Stations

Liebherr Plans Russia Plant

Russia Speedboats To Get Asian Engines

Published Monthly by

November 25, 2019 Volume 4 No. 11 Worldwide News & Analysis

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November 25, 2019

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Click Here To Go To Page 1 North America Report By Yosyf Sheremeta, Director of Product Management & Customer Experience

Strong Fundamentals, But No Clear Signs of GrowthThis is excerpted from the Q3 2019 Update Bulletin prepared for PSR clients

SUMMARY. During the first nine months of 2019, the economy

remained stable and pure economic conditions as well as

fundamentals in the region were favorable. Most industries

performed very well, and the short-term outlook remains stable

to flat for most market segments. However, we see many new

developments that could suggest a shift in the trend.

Consumer confidence declined in September, following

a moderate decrease in August. The Conference Board’s

consumer confidence index stood at 125.1 in September. Per Lynn Franco, Senior

Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, “Consumers were less

positive in their assessment of current conditions and their expectations regarding

the short-term outlook also weakened. The escalation in trade and tariff tensions

in late August appears to have rattled consumers.”

Most major economic indicators--such as earnings outlook, revenue projections,

capital spending, and technology spending –are down compared to just 3-6 months

ago. The Federal Reserve made two changes (a decrease of 25 base points each

time) to interest rates but has indicated that given macroeconomic performance and

the state of the economy, future rate cuts in Q4 2019 are unlikely.

The reduced optimism about the overall U.S. economy likely reflects continued

uncertainty about trade policy and weaker global economic growth.

Trade-related issues continue to spook the markets, and we expect such

uncertainty to continue over the short to near term. Furthermore, we do not expect

any major trade deals to take place in 2019-2020. Some minor agreements

or temporary policy deals will keep the markets on their feet. If the economy

continues on this path, it could enter a recession in 2020. Tariffs on Mexico and

China could be major reasons for this to happen as we look at the impact China’s

retaliation has had on American soybean farmers.

The US economy is still growing; however the job growth has been flat to steady.

The reported number for August was 130,000. Government reports from Sept.

6, 2019, showed a healthy unemployment rate at 3.7%. This rate was steady for

the past three months. Employment continued to show steady numbers in several

industries, including mining, manufacturing and transportation. Job growth in

these industries has moderated thus far in 2019 compared with 2018.

As of Sept. 6, 2019, the labor force participation rate, at 63.2%, and the

employment-population ratio, at 60.9%, were slightly higher from the previous

Yosyf Sheremeta

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Click Here To Go To Page 1quarter. We estimate the labor market will be stable for the remainder of 2019

with a projected unemployment rate of 3.8%.

The general economy in the U.S. is in its tenth year of growth, and overall markets

are still performing well. This has been an uncommon economic cycle with a very

prolonged, low and slow recovery. At the same time, we see that some segments

experienced a series of shorter cyclical growth patterns within a growth cycle.

Across all market segments, we expect overall total OEM equipment production

numbers to be almost flat for 2019, which is in line with our previous projection in

Q2 2019 at 0.76%. We see an almost flat to slightly lower level of overall activity

in 2020 at -2.8%, as the overall economy reached its peak in productivity, and as

demand levels decline going into 2020-2021.

Across other markets, we forecast that short-term growth is expected to be

flat to slightly positive at low-single digits annually for some segments such as

Construction and Industrial, with the mining sector performing better than others.

The Agricultural segment experienced setbacks in H1 2019 and has not yet

delivered the promised recovery, but we expect activities to improve in 2020-

2022. Other segments, such as Passenger Cars, and Minivan/SUV, experienced a

slowdown in 2018 and will further turn into negative territory in 2019-2020.

AGRICULTURAL. For the overall segment in 2019, we expect a decline of 3.7%.

The agricultural machinery market will remain on the recovery trend going into

2020-2023 with mid-single digit rate of expected growth. .

CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT. Our most recent overall projection on equipment

and machinery production is rather flat to slightly positive at 0.8% in 2019,

compared to 2018; this is slightly lower than our projections from last quarter (at

1.2%). With future uncertainty in the economy, we project rather flat growth at

0-1% over the next few years.

Extremely low housing inventory levels and high demand also help drive the prices

and the segment forward. A strong economy certainly has a major impact on the

high level of demand. A word of caution came from home builders when they

reported reduced housing starts during June of 2019, a trend that has continued

since the start of the year. Additionally, in some regions the housing market

became buyers’ market, which signals temporary oversupply.

Major OEMs in the Construction and Industrial segments reported significant

increases in orders and activities in 2018 and 2019, but future demand seems to

be tapering off, mainly due to overall economic uncertainty.

As in the Agricultural sector, we have started to see the introduction of new

technologies and electric drive types. We project this trend will rapidly increase

over the next few years, and it may start gaining significant market share within

5-10 years.

North America ReportContinued from page 2






November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1INDUSTRIAL. We see very similar trends in growth for this segment, with a gain

of 1.4% in 2019 over 2018. This rate is slightly higher than previously projected

in Q2 2019. The overall growth dynamic is closely mirroring the Construction

segment. The main drivers for the segment are material handling and forklift

applications, where the demand remains strong.

MINING EQUIPMENT. The main catalysts for the change have been increased

commodity prices, new developments within the oil and gas industries and

speculation on future administration policies and infrastructure spending.

We see overall positive growth for the segment in 2019-2025. Given current

market trends and economic conditions, PSR does not project any rapid recovery

of machinery equipment for the mining sector, due to the prolonged market

decline and stagnation. Instead, it is shaping up to be a long but steady recovery.

It will take several years for the industry to reach its previous production levels.

Consumer sectors, including LAWN AND GARDEN, PASSENGER CARS,

MINIVANS AND SUVs as well as RECREATIONAL PRODUCTS, continue to

benefit from the strong economy. These segments performed very well over the

past few years (2016-2019).

LAWN AND GARDEN segment shows steady demand, and the growth trend will

remain flat to positive in 2019 at 0.8%, shifting into a slight downward trend at

-2.5% in 2020. The key drivers for this segment are solid housing starts and a

strong economy; however, lower housing starts will slow down the growth in this

segment.

PASSENGER CARS AND MINIVAN/SUVs segments have experienced a slight

slowdown in demand since late 2016. New vehicle sales as well as profits

continued to decline in 2019. August YTD 2019 Passenger Car sales registered

8% decline vs 2018 YTD. Most of the drop was caused by waning interest in

compact cars, mid-size sedans and full-size cars. Consumer preferences are

shifting to roomier rides, and steady, low gasoline prices have given confidence in

buying larger vehicles (SUVs)

Minivan/SUVs segment showed better sales growth, as many customers switch

from cars to SUVs. Minivan/SUVs segment registered 4% growth YTD 2019.

Overall, for 2019 we expect the Passenger Car segment production volumes to

be negative at -7.5%, as many consumers transition into the small SUV sector.

Additionally, the average lifespan of a vehicle remains above 11.6 years and that

does not add to the demand for new cars. The key drivers for longer average

vehicle life are improved overall quality and durability of the products.

Many consumers have switched from a car to an SUV, and that has helped to

drive demand for the segment even more. The production rate for 2018 was

positive at 6.8%, a very healthy overall production number in comparison to

record high levels and demand in previous years.


Given current market trends and economic conditions, PSR does not project any rapid recovery of machinery equipment for the mining sector, due to the prolonged market decline and stagnation.






November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1We project that this growth trend for Minivan/SUVs will continue in H2 2019, but

at a slightly lower annual rate of 3.8%. We see high replacement rates playing an

important role that will drive overall growth. The smaller size SUV market is rapidly

gaining momentum vs. large SUVs with many products coming from major global

OEMs. We expect this niche market to continue to develop and be solid in the

next few years with many more new product offerings from major OEMs.

Another point worth mentioning is the adoption of electric vehicles, which has

been gaining ground very rapidly. Most OEMs have--or will have--solid electric

product offerings within a couple of years, and we expect to see a more rapid

increase in sales of electric vehicles.

At this point, the overall share of electric vehicles is still insignificant, but it is

growing very rapidly; we expect the trend will accelerate much faster over the next

five years. While we expect electric cars to gain in popularity, they will not gain any

significant share of the market in the near term.

Considering the rise of public transportation during the last decade, we believe the

personal transportation segment reached its peak in 2018, but that it will remain

healthy to slightly negative over the next couple of years. We forecast production

levels in North America for Cars and SUVs together will decline 2-3% in 2020.

MEDIUM AND HEAVY VEHICLES. While demand for medium and heavy

commercial trucks remained very strong this year, a slowdown in demand has

started and PSR expects significantly lower class 8 truck production in 2020 as a

result of a slowing economy, lower freight rates, uncertainty surrounding the tariff

situation and an overcapacity of heavy trucks in the market.

We estimate the growth rate for the MHV segment in 2019 to be about 5.1% above

2018, which is in line with our previous quarter projections. Going into 2020, the

segment will experience a decline in the production rate of -13.3% vs 2019.

POWER GENERATION. Things look good for this segment but underlying weaker

global economic conditions will put pressure on the power generation markets.

According to PowerTracker™, our quarterly survey of 200 North American dealers,

when the economy turns sour, generator sales are one of the first items to dry up.

We can see this concern reflected in the power generation market, which appears

to be at a turning point. Overall, the power generation production market was

up 0.9% in 2018-2019, but considering all fuel types and power ranges, we are

projecting it down about 1% over the next year. Traditional fuel types are going

to bear the brunt of the downturn. Diesel was about flat over the last year but is

projected down 1.8% over the next year.

We are forecasting the strongest growth in the 301 to 500 kW and 501 to1000 kW

ranges for LPG & natural gas at about 2%. The weakest growth will be in the very

largest power ranges which will be about flat, with all other power ranges growing

between 1 to 2%. For more information, please our detailed analysis on the

segment, published in Diesel Progress, September 2019 edition.







November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1

Europe Report

Innovation Is the Name of the Game at Agritechnica 2019

Here’s a complete report on Agritechnica 2019 with photos.

John Deere Wins Innovation Award at Agritechnica 2019

By Dalibor Sablic, Senior Business Development Manager – Europe

HANNOVER, Germany-- The impressive Gold Award for

Innovation at the Agritechnica 2019 Show was awarded to John

Deere for its electro-mechanical power split gearbox.

Stepless transmissions with a hydrostatic-mechanical power

split have been used in agricultural tractors for over 20 years.

Previously, additional generators for electric drives with a higher

power requirement were installed on tractors (fan, compressed-

air/air conditioner compressor, etc.) or on implements.

The eAutoPower gearbox for the new 8R large tractors from John Deere

represents the first electro-mechanical power split gearbox in agricultural

technology. Technically, the hydro unit (pump/motor) is completely dispensed

with; instead, two electric motors are used as a continuously variable actuator.

Used in combination with an axle drive on a manure spreader, the results in

practical use include, among other things, higher traction, reduced slip and

improved track guidance on side slopes.

Innovation Is the Name of the Game at Agritechnica 2019

By Emiliano Marzoli, Senior Business Development Manager - European

HANNOVER, Germany--For many years, Agritechnica has been growing and

strengthening its role as the top European agricultural trade show. Despite the

struggles that the industry is facing, with declining order books and a less than

enthusiastic outlook for 2020, Agritechnica 2019 held here Nov. 11-16, 2019,

reaffirmed its position as the most important ag tech event in Europe. The show

reported 2,820 exhibitors and 450,000 visitors, more than 130,000 of them from

outside Germany.

RECREATIONAL VEHICLES This sector follows consumer sector trends and is

expected to add 5.5% in 2019 and a decline of 2.7% in 2020. The key drivers

for the segment are a peak in economic cycle, higher interest rates as well as a

change in demographics.

RAILWAY. This segment trend is flat (up 0.5% to 2.0%), mainly following the

natural (organic) rate of replacements. PSR

Dalibor Sablic

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November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1OEMs and component suppliers brought many innovations, with sustainability

and efficiency as key factors in the development of the industry. It is no a surprise

that the focus of the show was on electrification and automation. While the former

is still far from being a practical solution for the entire ag industry, the latter has

consolidated as essence of farming and it’s rapidly evolving in more autonomous

vehicles.

BONDIOLI & PAVESI introduced their new Continuously Variable Transmission Unit (CVT). The proposed transmission

won the award Systems & Components Engineers’ Choice

Trophy organized by DLG (German Agricultural Society). The

CVT splits the machine’s drive shaft between the tractor’s

power take-off (PTO) and the machine and can be used for

any applications where the speed of the implement needs to be

continuously varied to match different working conditions – while

the speed of the tractor PTO remains constant.

One of the benefits claimed by the company is an increased productivity of the

machinery. The CVT unit can adapt the speed according to the task required by

the implements, independently from the engine speed. The high efficiency and

the increased performances allow for lesser fuel consumption. The unit is coupled

with an electronic control unit made by Bondioli & Pavesi, that monitors the CVT

functions.

Dana Incorporated brought many innovations to their stand and in many products

showcased around the fair. The Spicer® 980 independent suspended axle is

featured on the Fendt 942 Vario tractor, the winner in the premier “Tractor of the

Year” category. Dana also supplies the front axle for the Fendt 314 Vario Profi+,

which topped the “Best Utility” classification.

Additionally, high-precision gears and shifting solutions from Dana are used

in the transmissions of the New Holland T 4.110 N, which was named “Best

Specialized” tractor, and the New Holland Methane Power Tractor, which was

honored as the “Sustainable Tractor of the Year.”

Dana was showcasing drive systems for telehandlers and field sprayers to illustrate

the company’s modular approach for seamlessly packaging hybrid and electric

drivetrain solutions into current internal combustion vehicle architectures. The

system comprises Spicer® Electrified™ e-Axles and e-Gearbox that in combination

with Dana’s SpicerSmart Suite™ Intelligent Load Monitoring System (ILMS) allow

increased safety and productivity.

Another engine introduced at Agritechnica was the F28. It delivers maximum

power of 55 kW at 2,300 rpm and maximum torque of 375 Nm at 1,400 rpm.

Compliant with Stage V and Tier 4 Final emission standards, F28 takes advantage

of FPT’s ultra compact after-treatment solution, which uses a Diesel Oxidation

Catalyst (DOC) + Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) for the European market, and a

DOC for North America, maintaining the same packaging for both regions.

Europe ReportContinued from page 6

Emiliano Marzoli

It is no a surprise that the focus of [Agritechnica] was on electrification and automation.






November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1Following its strategy of offering multi-power solutions, FPT Industrial is offering

a 100% Natural Gas version of F28, with the same displacement and interface

as the Diesel version, using common base components, and a 3-way catalyst as

the after-treatment system. The F28 NG will further reduce pollutant emissions to

enable even more sustainable agriculture

Agritechnica posted impressive attendance numbers. More than 450,000 visitors

and 2,820 exhibitors participated. While international visitors rose to 130,000

(+18% vs 2017) the overall figures were down slightly compared to last year (-2%

in total visitors). This is in line with the general feeling of the market.

2020 forecast for machinery sales is flat to slightly negative compared to 2019.

And yet another confirmation of the current state of the Ag industry comes from

the exhibitor and visitor surveys organized by DLG.

These trends are reported in our machinery production forecast database,

OE Link™. If you need more information about the agriculture industry, or any

other power product segment, please contact us; we’ll be happy to assist you with

your market intelligence needs.

Electrification hybrid technology

Although not every application is suited to early electrical adoption, such as larger

tractors and combines, Electrification is a hot topic for the Agricultural sector.

Hybrid options seem to be slightly favored when it comes to internal combustion

alternatives for mid-sized applications.

Powertrac demonstrated this option at Agritechnica 2019 with their new hybrid

tractor concept. Steyr, the premium agricultural brand of CNH partnered with

FPT Industrial to create the “Steyr Konzept” centered around a modular hybrid

electric drive, comprising a highly efficient diesel engine, a generator and five

electric motors.

New models and technology

With the introduction of Stage V for off-road applications between 56 to 130 kW

next year, we have seen a number of revamped models to accommodate the new

Stage V engines. Since this has already been done for other models outside of

this range at the start of this year, the transition is pretty smooth. We also had a

chance to see the X9 twin rotor combine by John Deere designed to be the widest

body combine on the market, while staying within EU directives. We will have to

wait until July to get the final details.

Staying with John Deere, they have introduced an alternative to hydrostatic drives;

they have basically replaced the hydraulic part of the engine with electricity. It is

still early in the product life cycle to determine exactly what the implication of this

product can have, but it could have big implications.

Finally, John Deere has teamed up with Volocopter, the Germany start-up

company, to develop a drone for pulverization as an alternative to helicopter


Agritechnica posted impressive attendance numbers. More than 450,000 visitors and 2,820 exhibitors participated.







November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1pulverization. The drone can perform this task much more efficiently with less

spread and could be very useful in fields close to habitations.

Autonomous Concept Vehicles have made their way into the 2019 Agritechnica.

Case brought their autonomous tractor and John Deere brought their autonomous

sprayer. These are still in the early stages, but it is good to see, in this current

climate, OEMs are opening up to many different solutions for the future. PSR

Data Point: U.S. Commercial Zero Turn Mowers

383,700

By Carol Turner, Senior Analyst, Global Operations

This is the estimate by Power Systems Research of the number of commercial

zero turn mowers that will be produced in the U.S. in 2019.

This information comes from industry interviews and from two proprietary

databases maintained by Power Systems Research: EnginLink™ , which provides

information on engines, and OE Link™, a database of equipment manufacturers.

Market Share: With combined plant totals of 22.5%, MTD leads in production of

zero turn mowers in the U.S. In second position is Excel Industries with 9.5%,

and in third place is Bad Boy with 8%.

Exports: Collectively up to 30% worldwide

Trends: In 2018, production of zero turn mowers in the US was flat, slipping

less than 1% from 2017. Expect production to gain 4% in 2019 over 2018. The

gain is attributed to the demand for new products that enhance overall mowing

productivity with increased mowing speeds. Zero turn mowers cover a lot of

ground quickly, making them a growing favorite of landscapers and homeowners

with large lots. In fact, zero turn mowers are designed to cut grass nearly twice as

fast as other mower styles. Production is expected to gain an additional 5% over

the next 3-5 years. PSR


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November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1 Brazil/South America Report By Fabio Ferraresi, PSR Director, Business Development, South America

Volvo Cars Plans To Invest in EV Charging Stations in BrazilVolvo Cars said it plans to greatly expand its network of 125

Brazilian charging stations in partnership with big retail groups

and parking businesses. Expansion plans call for operating 500

stations within a year. In São Paulo city, there would be one

re-charging station at every 9.7 km.

Source: Automotive Business Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Volvo is moving beyond the infrastructure bottleneck by setting up

its own charging network to attract EV enthusiasts. Volvo currently holds 22% of

EV/HEV sales in Brazil, but its goal is to reach 40% in 2020, with sales of 4,000

units. This is totally in line with the global strategy of the company that is focusing

on pure EV and HEV.

MWM Closes Plant in ArgentinaThe economic crisis in Argentina has hurt the engine powered markets in that

country, and MWM has decided to close the plant in Jesus Maria at Province of

Cordoba, Argentina, and move the remaining production of parts and gen-sets to

the plant in São Paulo, Brazil.

Source: Noticias Automotivas Read The Article

PSR Analysis: With significant production cuts in Argentina and Brazil, MWM

has struggled to continue supplying independent OEMs in several segments.

The volumes produced in Argentina do not justify keeping an operation there.

Moreover, the economic and political conditions in Argentina are uncertain and

the move of production to Brazil was inevitable.

Honda Stops Producing Cars in Argentina and Will Focus on BrazilHonda said it has stopped producing cars in Argentina but said it will continue

producing motorcycles there. Production of the compact HR-V SUV at the plant of

Campana, great Buenos Aires, has been moved to Brazil. The company has been

producing motorcycles in Argentina since 2006, and the plant now produces

several motorcycles: the Wave, CG 150 e XR 150L.

Source: G1 Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The low volumes because of the crisis in the second largest

economy in South America set back the growth plans of the Japanese OEM in that

Fabio Ferraresi

With significant production cuts in Argentina and Brazil, MWM has struggled to continue supplying independent OEMs in several segments.





http://www.automotivebusiness.com.br/noticia/30222/volvo-cars-planeja-ampliar-rede-de-recarga-para-carro-eletrico-no-brasil

https://www.noticiasautomotivas.com.br/mwm-fecha-fabrica-de-motores-na-argentina-e-transfere-para-o-brasil/

https://g1.globo.com/carros/noticia/2019/08/13/honda-deixa-de-produzir-carros-na-argentina.ghtml


November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1country. The volumes were never even close to those in the company’s business

plans. In Brazil, despite the crisis from 2014-2017 and the volumes below

business plan, volumes are strong, and the Honda brand is well recognized,

providing profitability and room for growth. PSR

China Report By Qin Fen, 秦奋 PSR Business Development Manager-China. 业务拓展经理

BAIC, Aulton To Cooperate on 20,000 Beijing Electric TaxisBeijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd. (BAIC) and Aulton have

signed a strategic cooperation pact to accelerate and expand

battery-powered taxis in Beijing and the rest of the country. The

program also will explore battery swapping and its application in

commercial vehicles. A battery swap program involves replacing

batteries at a public station rather than charging individual vehicle batteries.

Source: D1EV Read The Article

PSR Analysis: When it comes to massive implementation of electrification in

public transportation, it’s hard to skip Beijing. The city is the place where such a

policy is first published. And the rest country follows what happens in Beijing—

although Shanghai may disagree. When China makes the move in the EV market,

the rest of the world will follow.

What’s important about this news is that it will significantly change the way people

look at battery-powered cars, especially if the rest of the country follows Beijing

and builds battery swap stations downtown. What used to be a subsidized EV will

soon be dropped because the demand is too big.

Think about it, how many days in a week do we commuters drive out of the cities?

When major hubs of cities are surrounded by such quick switch stations, like gas

stations today, will you be concerned about distance? Distance will cease to be a

major problem. Besides, the battery swap stations are not going to put some old

batteries in your car, are they?

Currently there are fewer than 4,000 EV taxis with quick battery swaps running in

Beijing. Imagine when all of China has such taxis, if everything goes well. Hmm,

I’m going to add them to my stock portfolio. PSR

Brazil/South America ReportContinued from page 10

Qin Fen

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November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1 北汽＋奥动换电合作扩大，北京2万出租油改电市场在望2019年11月4日 —北汽集团与奥动新能源汽车科技有限公司（下称奥动新能源）在北京签署战略合作框架协议。协议将加速、扩大双方在北京及其他城市纯电动出租车的推广应用，同时北汽福田将和奥动新能源探索换电商业模式在商用车、物流车上的应用。

新闻来源：第1电动 – 阅读原文链接

PSR分析：还记得中国第一个开始实行交通电动化的城市吗？大家可能记得不是很清楚。但说到在公共交通领域最早开始大规模推广电动化的城市，北京是跳不过去的。当然了，这座城市也是公交电动化政策首先发布的城市，所以说，基本上北京怎么做了，全国各地很快也会这么做（上海可能会不同意… …）。而电动车方面，中国怎么做，基本上也就是世界在怎么做了。

这个新闻令人兴奋或者震惊的地方在于，如果全国其他城市效仿北京，在城市中心建设电池换电站，这将会极大改变人们对于电动汽车的许多负面印象，以往需要补贴才能卖出去的电动车，很快在市场上会变得供不应求，因为对于大多数人来说，一周能有几天离开城市呢？当主要城市的连接点都布满了这种换电站，像加油站一样方便，你真的还会在乎电池跑不远这个事实吗？更何况换电站也不会给你换上跑不了几公里远的电池，对吧？

北京市目前已经有不到4,000辆快速换电的出租车在路上运行。想象一下全中国都跑着这种出租车的情形吧，如果一切顺利，不说了，我去买电池企业的股票去了。PSR

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Far East: Japan ReportBy Akihiro Komuro, Research Analyst, Far East and Southeast Asia 小室明大極東及び東南アジア - リサーチアナリスト

Japan Considers Compact EV Subsidies Japan is considering subsidizing purchases of ultracompact

electric vehicles to reduce traffic accidents involving elderly

drivers. The industry ministry is weighing a maximum allocation

of about US$ 915 (100,000 yen) per purchase, government

officials said. The one-seater and two-seater EVs are looked

at as a way to provide Japan’s rapidly aging population with an

easier and safer means of mobility, particularly in rural areas

where public transport is limited.

Ultracompact EVs, which are smaller than normal automobiles, are considered

easier to drive and are designed to travel at comparatively low speeds. Drivers of

ultracompact EVs require a regular driver’s license and are only permitted to use a

limited number of public roads in the country.

Akihiro Komuro

China ReportContinued from page 11





https://www.d1ev.com/kol/102456

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mailto:%20info%40powersys.com?subject=



November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1The transportation ministry is looking at relaxing regulations in the current fiscal

year that ends in March to allow the vehicles to be driven on most public roads.

They are designed for use on short trips and are expected to play a key role in

reducing the number of major accidents.

Source: The Mainichi

PSR Analysis: In recent years, there have been a series of fatal accidents caused

by elderly drivers in Japan, and there is a movement for elderly people to turn

in their driver’s licenses. However, especially in rural areas where transportation

infrastructure is scarce, it is a problem because there is no means of moving

elderly people other than in cars.

Nissan’s New Mobility Concept ultra-compact EV may solve this problem. In many

cases, the maximum speed is less than 60 km/h, and it can be a single or two-

person. The price is still around 1 to 1.5 million yen, but this price will go down as

production increases. As the convenience of this class is recognized, it is likely that

the compact EV will invade the market for mini cars, the smallest class in Japan.

PSR

極東 > 日本: 東京新聞:超小型EV購入に補助金新移動手段

自動車メーカーが開発を進める１～２人乗りの「超小型電気自動車（ＥＶ）」について、経済産業省が購入時の補助金支給を検討していることが９日、分かった。高齢者の運転による深刻な交通事故や過疎化を背景にした地方の公共交通衰退が社会問題となる中、扱いやすい超小型ＥＶは安全性が高い新たな移動手段として期待される。経産省は導入費用を支援して普及を促す狙いだ。補助額は最大で１０万円程度となる可能性もある。軽自動車より小さい超小型ＥＶは小回りが利き運転しやすく、速度も必要以上には出ない設計だ。

出典: 東京新聞

PSR 分析: 日本では近年高齢者ドライバーによる死亡事故が相次いでおり、高齢者が運転免許証を返還する動きがみられる。だが、特に交通インフラが乏しい地方では、自動車を代替する高齢者の移動手段がないために、社会問題になりつつある。ここで紹介されているウルトラコンパクトEVはこの問題を解決する可能性がある。多くの場合最高時速は60km/h未満であり、一人乗りである。価格はまだ100万円から150万円程度だが、この価格は生産台数が伸びるにつれて下がるだろう。このクラスの利便性が認知されていくにつれて、今後コンパクトEVが現在の日本における最小クラスである軽自動車の市場を侵蝕する可能性は充分にある。PSR

Far East ReportContinued from page 12

The transportation ministry is looking at relaxing regulations in the current fiscal year that ends in March to allow the [EV] vehicles to be driven on most public roads.

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https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20191109/p2g/00m/0dm/043000c

https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/s/article/2019110901001167.html



November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1 Far East Asia: South KoreaSouth Korea’s EV Exports Double YTDSouth Korean exports of electric vehicles (EVs) more than doubled in the first 10

months of this year on brisk demand from advanced markets.

The country’s overseas shipments of EVs were valued at US$2.57 billion in the

January-October period, up a whopping 103.3% from a year earlier. EVs took up 9.2%

of South Korea’s total auto exports last month, up from 4.4% for the whole of 2018.

Given the uptrend, South Korea’s EV exports are very likely to surpass the $3

billion mark for all of 2019, compared with $1.8 billion a year earlier.

Buoyed by more EV launches, South Korea’s overseas shipments of

rechargeable batteries climbed 4.6% on-year to $6.19 billion during the

10-month period, according to data from the industry ministry and the Korea

International Trade Association.

Source: Yonhap News Agency

PSR Analysis: The South Korean automobile industry suffers from sluggish sales,

but EVs are growing rapidly. Exports have contributed significantly to this growth,

especially in North America and Europe, the largest EV markets.

One reason for this growth is a successful pricing strategy. For example, Kona,

Hyundai’s EV flagship model, sells for about $ 36,450, and it is competitive with

other brands when comparing specs. PSR

極東 > 韓国: 1～10月のEV輸出額が前年比2倍に　年間30億ドル突破へ

韓国で自動車の輸出が伸び悩んでいるなか、電気自動車（EV）は健闘している。国内メーカーがEVへの投資を増やし海外マーケティングを強化していることに加え、先進国を中心に価格が下がり普及が進んでいるためで、EVが韓国輸出の新たな軸になっていると評価される。産業通商資源部や韓国貿易協会などによると、今年１～１０月のＥＶ輸出額は２５億６６００万ドル（約２８００億円）で、前年同期比１０３．３％増となった。１～１０月の自動車全体の輸出額が前年同期比６．７％増だったのと比べると、驚くべき成長を遂げたことになる。ＥＶの輸出額は今年１０月まで３３カ月連続で前年同月に比べ増加している。この勢いなら、今年の年間のＥＶ輸出額は初めて３０億ドルを突破すると見込まれる。昨年は１８億２００万ドルで初の１０億ドル台に乗せていた。

出典: Yonhapニュース

PSR 分析: 韓国の自動車産業は全体として売り上げ低迷に苦しんでいるが、対照的にEVは急速に成長している。特に輸出がこの成長に大きく貢献している。


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https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20191111002000320

https://jp.yna.co.kr/view/AJP20191111000800882?section=economy/index

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November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1最大市場である北米と欧州向けが伸びている。これは彼らの価格戦略が成功しているためと分析するのが自然だ。例えばHyundaiのEVフラッグシップモデルであるKonaは約3万6450ドルで販売されているが、スペックを比較すると他社EVとの競争力は充分にあると言える。このニュースは国内の自動車産業を勇気づけるだろう。 PSR

Southeast Asia: Philippines ReportPhilippines Consider Safeguard Duty on Imported Cars The Philippine government is seriously evaluating slapping a safeguard duty on

automobile imports following the surge in imports of completely built-up (CBU)

cars to protect the local car manufacturing. Some believe the influx of CBU

imports have reduced the number of car models assembled in the Philippines.

Data show that the volume of imported CBU cars grew from only 153,000 units in

2014 to 270,000 units in 2018. Total imports for the period 2014-2018 reached

more than a million units.

Because of the surge in CBU car imports, the Philippines lost its car assembly

industry and the closing of automotive parts manufacturers pose a further threat

to the remaining local auto manufacturing. Today, there are only a handful of car

models being produced in the country, on CKD basis.

Source: Manila Bulletin

PSR Analysis: Many countries in Southeast Asia see the automobile industry as a

key to their manufacturing industry and are working hard to protect the industry. At

this stage, the government is still investigating, but the proposed change could have

a major impact on Japanese OEMs and other automotive OEMs in Southeast Asia.

Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea are expected to be affected. In fact,

most of the finished cars exported from Thailand and Indonesia to the Philippines

are Japanese brands. Currently, the Philippines prohibits the import of used cars

except in specific cases in order to foster its own automobile manufacturing and

knockdown (CKD) industries. As a result, imports are inevitably centered on new

CBU vehicles, but the domestic manufacturing environment has not caught up

with growing domestic demand. PSR

東南アジア > フィリピン:完成車輸入に制限措置要請　100万台流入、雇用損失を危惧

フィリピンで完成車（ＣＢＵ）の輸入増に懸念が出ている。業界団体は2014～18年に100万台以上が輸入されたことで、部品製造や車両組み立ての雇用が奪われたと主張。緊急輸入制限措置（セーフガード）の導入を求めた通知を貿易産業省に提出し、同省は影響を精査する方針を示した。CBU輸入の流入とフィリピンで組み立てられた車種の数の減少との間には因果関係があると






https://business.mb.com.ph/2019/11/10/ph-seriously-considering-safeguard-duty-on-imported-cars/


November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1いう主張がある。データによると、輸入されたCBU車の量は2014年のわずか153,000台から2018年には270,000台に増加した。2014年から2018年の期間の総輸入量は100万台を超えた。CBUの自動車輸入の急増により、フィリピンは自動車組立産業と自動車部品メーカーの閉鎖を失い、地元の自動車製造業の残りにさらなる脅威をもたらしていると見られる。これまでのところ、CKDベースで国内生産されている車モデルは一握りである。

出典: Manila Bulletin

PSR分析: 東南アジアの多くの国では自動車産業を自国の製造業のキーであると考えており産業を守るために懸命だ。現時点ではまだ政府が調査をしているという段階だが、日本ブランドをはじめ東南アジアに進出している自動車OEMに大きな影響を与えるだろう。日本、タイ、インドネシア、韓国などが影響を受けることが予想される。実態として、タイやインドネシアからフィリピンへ輸出されている完成車はそのほとんどが日本ブランドである。現在フィリピンでは自国の自動車の製造やノックダウン（CKD）産業を育成するため、特定の場合を除き中古車の輸入が禁止されている。そのため輸入は必然的にCBUの新車が中心となるが、成長する国内需要に対して国内の製造環境が追い付いていない PSR

Southeast Asia ReportContinued from page 15

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India Report

By Ritvik Kulkarni, Research Analyst-India

EVs Here To Stay but Industry Needs Help To ExpandEVs today are undergoing a vicious cycle of high cost, low demand and low

supply. Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Electric Vehicles in India are still at a nascent

phase when compared to global markets. Although there have

been movements in the right direction, these EV movements

have been slow.

Major OEMs are gearing up to launch their electric vehicles,

most notably Bajaj’s recent unveiling of the Chetak Electric

scooter which will go on sale in January 2020. The return of

the erstwhile popular Chetak as an EV is seen by many as a

step forward. The industry is still divided on their vehicle launches, and majors

like Maruti Suzuki have postponed its EV launches by at least a year, citing lack

of infrastructure as a major hurdle. However, incumbents like Hyundai, Tata and

Mahindra all have multiple vehicles in the pipeline.

EV startup Ather Energy recently announced its arrival in the city of Chennai, the

company’s second venture after Bangalore. Another startup, Ultraviolette, has

Ritvik Kulkarni





https://business.mb.com.ph/2019/11/10/ph-seriously-considering-safeguard-duty-on-imported-cars/

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https://www.financialexpress.com/auto/car-news/electric-vehicle-market-in-india-evolution-challenges-and-solutions/1738148/


November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1unveiled its second electric motorcycle which is being dubbed as India’s first

performance electric motorcycle. Both of these startups are backed by industry

stalwarts Hero Motocorp and TVS Motors, respectively, signaling the differing

mindsets OEMs have in India.

Although, the new launches by multiple OEMs are a look at the future, there

remain many barriers to overcome, including:

• High battery costs leading to higher manufacturing costs.

• Higher prices for EVs when compared to traditional IC-powered vehicles.

• Lack of charging infrastructure and the concerns about range.

EESL, a major buyer that had tendered an order for 10,000 electric vehicles

for government use, has recently cancelled the tender after multiple delivery

deadlines were missed. The reasons cited were that the range specification in

the tender was approximately 130kms on a single charge, and there are already

several vehicles in the market that boast a superior range per charge.

All might not be gloomy, though, with multiple foreign OEMs such as MG motors,

BYD etc., lining up launches soon as well as several states putting out orders

for electric bus fleets, OEM partnerships such as the Toyota-Suzuki alliance that

will work on battery technology, and French IBS planning to set up a battery

manufacturing in India in partnership with Ion Energy.

With the government also is shifting focus on incentives for critical battery

components, EVs are here to stay. While currently they may be undergoing a

vicious cycle of high cost, low demand, low supply, with all the stakeholders

working together, the industry can expect to move into a virtuous cycle of low cost,

high demand, high supply.

Tractor Sales Show Healthy Growth, Demand Expected To GrowRead The Article

PSR Analysis: An erratic and extended monsoon will be a boon as well as a bane

for the Indian agricultural sector.

While the monsoon overall has been good, its uneven pattern means that it

may not bode well for the Kharif crops. But being plentiful will certainly help the

reservoir and the ground water levels. Adequate soil moisture conditions and an

expected improvement in the MSP for rabi crops will bode well for tractor demand

India ReportContinued from page 16

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https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-cm/m-m-declines-after-weak-oct-sales-119110100736_1.html
















November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1in coming months. The Indian government increased the MSP of wheat, the most

important rabi crop, by 4.6% over last year.

In October, tractor production declined 26%, compared to October 2018. This is

largely due to inventory correction practices adopted by OEMs. Higher inventory

levels and a softer demand led to production cuts across OEMs. Mahindra, the

largest tractor maker in India reported a drop of 4% YoY in October, however, it

had jumped a healthy 23% from September 2019 to October 2019. Escorts has

also reported a marginal growth of 1.6%.

These growth figure indicate that festival season did bring some joy to the farm

segment. The correction in retail inventory and channel sales has led to good retail

sales and we expect this trend to continue in expectation of a good rabi season.

The real tractor demand uptake will be seen around the months of April and May.

PSR

Russia Report By Maxim Sakov, Market Consultant, Russia

Mobile Phone Operators Invest in EV Charge StationsThe Russian electric car charge infrastructure is being developed by an

unexpected source—mobile phone companies. For example, the Rostelecom

company has installed 100 charge stations in Moscow. And another phone

operator – MTS –has built 10 charge stations.

The main reason for this investment is diversification.

Rostelecom considers charge stations as a part of “Smart

City” project, which it is developing in 50 Russian cities.

Read The Article

PSR Analysis: The Russian electric car market is very small –

only a few thousand units for the entire country. Unlike many

other countries where the government provides direct subsidies

and infrastructure investment, in Russia there are only a few

local initiatives, such as free parking in Moscow and tax exemption in some

regions. Another reason: the cold climate is not good for car batteries.

Liebherr Plans Plans Several Projects in RussiaProspects for several new projects by the German OEM Liebherr have been

discussed in detail with the Ministry of Trade and Industry. Liebherr plans to start

assembly of 220 ton dump trucks T264 and front end loaders L566. One more

project under discussion is the production of cranes for “Arctic CPG-2”. The base

plant for the production is Kemerovokhimmash.

Maxim Sakov

In October, tractor production declined 26%, compared to October 2018. This is largely due to inventory correction practices adopted by OEMs.

India ReportContinued from page 17





https://iz.ru/939866/valerii-kodachigov-aleksandr-volobuev/zapravka-ot-telefona-krupnye-operatory-sviazi-zariadiat-elektromobili


November 25, 2019


Click Here To Go To Page 1In 2017, the OEM signed an agreement regarding local assembly of Liebherr

machinery. The first dump truck produced under this pact was assembled a year

later.

The first Liebherr plant in Russia was opened in 2011. It specialized in

construction machinery parts and airborne production. Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Liebherr is following the path of OEMs such as Caterpillar, Komatsu

and Hitachi, which are assembling machinery in Russia. For example, Caterpillar

is making dump trucks and excavators in the St. Petersburg region. With the State

strategy targeted to lock up the market for domestic manufacturers, Liebherr has

a good chance to increase its local position. According to a recent speech by

Russian president V. Putin, construction machinery is a segment with potentially

very high demand in Russia (together with medical, telecom and garbage

processing equipment, with a total forecast of US$100 billion.)

Russian Speedboats To Be Equipped by Engines from Asia

Five years of sanctions have forced the builders of speedboats and small vessels

to start shifting from European engines to ones made in Asia. With a lack of

financing to develop their own engines for small fleets, International companies,

like Volvo Penta, Yamaha, Mercury are looking outside Russia.

Currently, Russia does not produce world class engines for speedboats and small

vessels. Local engine makers can supply relatively cheap and reliable engines in

range of 100-300 kWt, but engines in the range of 300-700 kWt all are imported.

Russian shipbuilders are looking to South Korea (Doosan) and China for these

engines. With Chinese products, however, they face problems of product quality

and communications with OEMs. Read The Article

PSR Analysis: Currently the State support measures targeted to creation of HHP

engines (from 700 to 6500 kWt). Working samples for marine application have

been presented by local companies Zvezda Energetica and UDMZ. If successful,

after few years, the focus of attention should shift to lower power ranges.

Meanwhile, the purchase marine engines from China could be a reasonable

option, assuming that some Chinese OEMs will considerably improve their engine

quality. PSR


Russia ReportContinued from page 18





https://exkavator.ru/main/news/inf_news/124325_o_proektah_liebherr_v_rossii_proizvoditel_osvaivaet_vipusk_novih_tipov_tehniki.html

https://flotprom.ru/2019/342650/



November 25, 2019


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