All policy rests on assumptions of why we do what we do

Development policy 1.0:

Humans make decisions deliberatively, independently, and on the basis of consistent and self-interested preferences.

All policy rests on assumptions of why we do what we do

Development policy 2.0:

People think automatically: when deciding, we usually draw on what comes to mind effortlessly

People think socially: social norms guide much of behavior, and people are conditional cooperators

People think with mental models: what we perceive and how they interpret it depends on concepts and world-views drawn from our societies and shared histories

We think automatically This gives us a partial view of the world.

Promoting savings by mental accounting in Kenya

Source: Dupas and Robinson 2013

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Dependents Independents (no college) Independents (some college)

Receiving help increased submission of financial aid

Submission of financial aid form Submission of financial aid form

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

Dependents Independents (no college)

Independents (some college)

People who received help are more likely to receive financial aid

Received Pell Grant (financial aid) Received Pell Grant (financial aid)

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Dependents Independents (no college) Independents (some college)

Providing help dramatically increased enrollment amongst dependent applicants, but was less effective with older

independent tax filers.

College enrollment College enrollment

We think socially What others think, expect, and do influences our preferences and decisions

Activating norms to make roads safer: Stickers on minibuses

Activating norms to make roads safer: Stickers on minibuses Impact

• Insurance claims involving injury or death fell by half, from 10 percent to 5 percent of claims

• Cost per year for a life saved was about $5.80 making the program even more cost effective than childhood vaccination, one of the most cost effective health interventions.

Percentage of the population demonstrating contributor behavior

Hairdressers offered social incentives sold twice as many condoms as the other groups.

Represents a 43% increase in

payment

3.9% 4.3% 4.4% 5.0% 5.4% 5.6%

Control Original SAT Letter

Behavioural Letter

Behavioural + National Pride

Behavioural + Deliberate

Choice

Behavioural + Social Norms

Percentage of taxpayers that paid tax by letter received

© Behavioural Insights ltd

Getting people to pay their taxes

Governance by indicators

We think with mental models This gives us a partial view of the world.

c

Insults did not cause a significant change in cortisol or

testosterone among US Northerners

TESTOSTERONE CORITSOL

But did causes a surge among US Southerners

TESTOSTERONE CORITSOL

Cohen et al. 1996

Small gain Big loss

Small gain Big gain

Player's choice

Be

ind

epen

den

t T

ry t

o c

oo

per

ate

Be independent Try to cooperate

Par

tne

r's

cho

ice

Payoffs to column player

Percentage of players who continue to try to cooperate after getting a big loss

0

20

40

60

80

In low-caste pairs

In high-caste pairs

A mirror to ourselves:

Are experts exempt from biases?

A mirror to ourselves: Are experts exempt from biases?

Predictions for Medical Knowledge (in Kenya)

World Bank DFID

42%

18%

12% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Predictions for Poor

Predictions for Well-off

Actual Responses of

Poor

Actual Responses of

Well-off Individuals

Per

cen

tage

Rep

ort

ing

"Mo

st C

ho

se T

RU

E"

"Vaccines are risky because they can cause sterilization" - Kenya - WB Data

38%

17%

12% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Predictions for Poor

Predictions for Well-off

Actual Responses of

Poor

Actual Responses of

Well-off Individuals

Per

cen

tage

Rep

ort

ing

"Mo

st C

ho

se T

RU

E"

"Vaccines are risky because they can cause sterilization" - Kenya - DFID Data

Poverty

Poverty is a decision making context

Percentage who had pawned their belongings

Before After

Cognitive cost of poverty: test scores

Cognitive cost of poverty: test scores

Cognitive cost of poverty: test scores

Operationalizing social and behavioral insights

Embedding diagnosis and experimentation into implementation

Mind, Society, and Behavior Word Development Report 2015

worldbank.org/wdr2015