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Slide 3
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
220.000
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
VLCC Monthly Average Spot Earnings (net of bunkers & port charges)
AG-JAPAN, ROUND VOYAGE BASIS AT 'MARKET' SPEEDS ($ of the day)
$/day tce
Approx. Fixed Operating Costs
Slide 4
23
.25
0
3.5
00
0
15.000
30.000
45.000
60.000
75.000
90.000
105.000
120.000
135.000
150.000
165.000
180.000
195.000
210.000
19,0
19,5
20,0
20,5
21,0
21,5
22,0
22,5
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan
Ap
r
Jul
Oct
Jan
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mid East OPEC Production versus VLCC Spot Earnings AG-Japan round voyage at market speeds
OPEC Crude - Mid East VLCC Spot tce Market Speed (AG-East)
Mid East OPEC (million b/d)
VLCC ($/day)
Slide 5
42
5
42
7
41
9
42
0 43
5
45
9 47
5 4
91
49
4
51
9 5
38
57
2
60
6
63
3
64
3
64
4
63
5
62
7
62
8
63
3
63
0
62
1
61
3
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
675 2
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
VLCC Fleet - Annual Average
Delay Case
Delays & Canc. Case
number
VLCC 4 yrs + 15-29 VLCCs
VLCC 4 yrs + 112 VLCCs
Slide 6
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000 Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
De
c
Jan
Feb
'
2012 2013
VLCC and MR Spot Market Earnings
VLCC AG-Japan (TD3)
VLCC Fixed Op Cost
MR NWE-USAC (TC2)
$/day
TCE Spot Earnings (Round Voyage Basis at market speeds)
VLCC fixed operating costs
Slide 7
1.168
1.273
1.364
1.484
1.633
1.725
1.777
1.818
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1.500
1.600
1.700
1.800
1.900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Number
MR Fleet Developments Average Number of Vessels of 25,000-55,000 dwt
Slide 8
138 215 267
527 588
652
851
1007
135
142 127
172 195
296
479
421
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1.500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US Product Exports
Total Gasoline Exports
Total Distillate Exports
000 b/d
Slide 9
Jan/Feb 2012 Jan/Feb 2013
VLCC 26,000 10,000
Suezmax 24,000 13,000
Aframax 13,000 9,000
LR2 7,000 13,000
LR1 6,000 11,000
MR- East 6,000 15,000
MR - West 14,000 20,000
MR - avg 10,000 17,500
spot round voyage tce at mkt speeds
Sentiment is in the Products Sector
Slide 10
79 142
88
191
119 163
295 246
109 48 36 50
115
34
44
80
54 22
62
55
28
30 18
51
78
43
97
72 46
153
106
55
36
37
24
54
26
81
46
51
27 74
50
28
49
53
37
90
37
98
26
55
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Tanker Orders Placed Each Year above 25,000 dwt
VLCC Orders Suezmax Orders LR2/Aframax Orders LR1/Panamax Orders MR Orders
number
Slide 11
42
5
42
7
41
9
42
0 43
5
45
9 47
5 4
91
49
4
51
9 5
38
57
2
60
6
63
3
64
3
64
4
63
5
62
7
62
8
63
3
63
0
62
1
61
3
400
425
450
475
500
525
550
575
600
625
650
675 2
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
VLCC Fleet - Annual Average
Delay Case
Delays & Canc. Case
number
VLCC 4 yrs + 112 VLCCs
VLCC 4 yrs + 15-29 VLCCs
Slide 12
+0,7 +0,7
+1,7
+3,0
+1,4 +1,0
+1,5
-0,6 -1,0
+2,6
+0,8 +0,9 +1,0 +1,1 +1,2 +1,3 +1,2
-1,0
-0,5
+0,0
+0,5
+1,0
+1,5
+2,0
+2,5
+3,0
+3,5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year-on-Year Changes in World Oil Demand source: IEA million b/d
Slide 13
+ 3
mill
ion
b/d
!!!
8,0
8,2
8,4
8,6
8,8
9,0
9,2
9,4
9,6
9,8
10,0
10,2
10,4
10,6
10,8
11,0
11,2
11,4
11,6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dramatic Change in the Outlook for US Oil Production current forecast vs expectations 15 months ago
Forecast made in October 2011
Current Forecast - Jan 2013
million b/d
Slide 14
JUBAIL 0.4 MILLION B/D 2nd Half 2013 Aramco/Total
YANBU 0.4 MILLION B/D 3Q 2014 Aramco/Sinopec
JAZAN 0.4 MILLION B/D 2016 Aramco
ABU DHABI – RUWAIS 0.4 MILLION B/D 2014
SAUDI ARABIA & ABU DHABI REFINERY DEVELOPMENTS
crude distillation capacity
Slide 15
17,5
16,7
15,4
16,9
18,0
18,3 18,4
17,9
18,8
16,9 17,0
18,6
19,0
18,5
18,1
17,4
15,0
15,5
16,0
16,5
17,0
17,5
18,0
18,5
19,0
19,5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Outlook for Middle East OPEC Crude Exports million b/d
Slide 16
1,1 0,9
1,3 1,4
2,0 1,9
2,3 2,2 2,0
2,2
2,6 2,7
3,3
3,9
4,5
4,9
5,3 5,5
5,7
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
VLCC Crude Trade Fundamentals more Atlantic-East Trade
Caribs-East
W.Africa-East
Atlantic-East (Caribs+W.Africa)
million b/d
Slide 17
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Middle East - Estimated Net Product Exports (a)
(a) total main products (excludes LPG, lubes, bitumen etc)
000 b/d
GIBSON SHIPBROKERS LTD This report has been produced for general information and is not a replacement for specific advice. While the market information is believed to be reasonably accurate, it is by its nature subject to limited audits and validations. No responsibility can be accepted for any errors or any consequences arising therefrom. © Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd 2013
Gibson Shipbrokers 16/20 Ely Place LONDON, EC1P 1HP www.gibson.co.uk
