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Transcript of Powering the Future - Gas Turbine charts for Natural Gas to...  Powering the Future The Nexus...

  • PoweringtheFuture

    TheNexusofWind,Solar,andFossilFuels

    FloridaTurbineTechnologies-GEPower

    Meggi8Vibro-Meter-OPRATurbines

    Pra8&Whitney-PWPowerSystems

    SiemensEnergy-SolarTurbines

    StrategicPowerSystems

    Alookahead:Howgovernmentpolicyandtechnologyadvances

    areshapingthedemandforgasturbines

  • FCGasIntelligencePhiladelphia,PAMay10,2016

    09/05/2016

  • RegulaOons(emissions,ghg)andpolicy(e.g.taxcredits,subsidies)aredrivingrapidincreasesinrenewablepower

    GasturbinesareandwillremainamajorpartofUSpowergeneraOon

    IncreasingcontribuOonfromrenewablesisimpacOngnon-renewables

    GasturbineindustryisrespondingbydevelopingsoluOonstomeetthenewdemand

    09/05/2016 FcGasIntelligenceConferencePhiladelphia,PA

  • CleanPowerPlan(NSPSCO2RegulaOon)New,Modified,andReconstructedGasTurbines

    SetsCO2PerformanceStandardforGasTurbinesThatSupplyMoreThan1/3ofTheirPotenOalElectricOutputandMoreThan219,000MWh(25MWx8760hours)NetElectricOutputtotheGridPerYear

    CarefullystepsaroundcombinedcycleandsimplecycleoperaOondefiniOon 1,000lb/MWhCO2turbinesoperaOngatornearbaseload.(1,030fornetoutput) 120lb/MMBtuCO2(inputbasis)forturbinesatlessthan33%ofdesigncapacity 120-160lb/MMBtuCO2(inputbasis)forturbinesdesignedformulO-fueloperaOon

    EmissionsStandardsareBasedona12-monthRollingAverageIncludingAllPotenOalOperaOngCondiOons

    SeparateEmissionsLevelProposalforCoalPlants

    Simplecycleturbinesarenotspecificallycalledout,butareregulatedbycapacityfactor. Theregulatorythresholdforsimplecyclegasturbinesis120lb-CO2/MMBtuoffuelforturbinesoperaOng

    lessthan33%oftheOme.

    EGUElectricGeneraOngUnit GHGGreenHouseGas NSPSNewSourcePerformanceStandard

    NSPS:NewSourcePerformanceStandard09/05/2016 FcGasIntelligenceConferencePhiladelphia,PA

  • CleanPowerPlanExisOngSourceRegulaOon(ESPS)

    ESPS:ProposaltoRegulateCO2EmissionsfromExisOngPowerPlant(primarilycoalfiredthermalplantsandgasturbines)

    ProposalallowsstatestheleewayinhowtoregulateCO2emissions TheymaylimitoutputonastatelevelintonsofCO2, Ortheymaylimitoutputatthestatelevelintermsofthemaximumemissionrate(lb-

    CO2perMWhofenergy)? Statescanhavethefinalsayonwhichpaththeychoose.

    Theycanevenformenergyandemissiontradingareas,muchlikeNERCregions. AnalysisofCO2emissionsinthepowerindustrysuggestedthatincreasedcombinedcycle

    operaOonwouldnetasignificantreducOoninCO2emissions CO2emissionsfromcombinedcyclesareabout1/3rdthoseofacoalplant Butnoteverystatehasasufficientinventoryofcombinedcyclesinplace

    Currently,theruleisbeingchallengedbythemajorityofthestates ThisporOonoftheCleanPowerPlanwasstayedbySupremeCourtDecisioninFebruary,

    2016

    ESPS:ExisOngSourcePerformanceStandard09/05/2016 FcGasIntelligenceConferencePhiladelphia,PA

  • 09/05/2016 FcGasIntelligenceConferencePhiladelphia,PA

  • NaturalgaslikelyovertookcoalastopU.S.powersourcein2015

    LastyearlookslikeitwasanunwelcomewatershedfortheembadledU.S.coalindustry.Powercompaniesin2015forthefirstOmemayhaveburnedmorenaturalgasthancoaltogenerateelectricity,accordingtoanalystswhoadributeittothecheapestgaspricesin16yearsandarecordnumberofcoal-firedplantsreOredfromservicebecauseofthehighcostofmeeOngenvironmentalregulaOons.-ReutersWedJan20,20163:19pmESThdp://www.reuters.com/arOcle/us-usa-natgas-coal-idUSKCN0UY2LT

  • PowerGeneraOononGridswithrenewables

    Lotsofnon-renewablegenera,onisopera,ng

    allofthe,me

    11Gigawa8s

    TheDuckPondNon-renewable

    genera,on

    TheDuckrenewablegenera,on

    Thenon-renewablesremainmoreenvironmentallyinfluen,althantherenewablegenera,on

    CAISONetLoad2012through2020

  • PowerGeneraOononGridswithoutrenewables

    TheDuckPondNon-renewable

    genera,on

    TheDuck

    renewable

    genera,on

    CAISONetLoad2012through2020

    BaseLoadDispatch

    Intermediate

    Peaking Simplecycle

    CombinedCycle,Coal,Nuclear

    BeforeRenewables ~4GW

  • PowerGeneraOononGridswithrenewables

    TheDuckPondNon-renewable

    genera,on

    TheDuck

    renewable

    genera,on

    CAISONetLoad2012through2020

    BaseLoadDispatch

    Intermediate

    PeakingSimplecycle

    EconomicsFavorsCombinedCycle

    BeforeRenewables

    ConstantLoad

    WithRenewables

    ModeratetoHighDispatchFluctuaPng

    Load

    ~6000hrs/yr

    ~7GW

  • Source:ofDataUSEnergyInforma4onAdministra4on;AnnualEnergyOutlook2015;TableA9ElectricityGenera4ngCapacity

    GasTurbine:KeyPartofUSElectricalGeneraOonandGrowing

    USElectricalGeneraPonCapacity:

    2013

    EIA2040ProjecOon(Basecase)

    coal

    coal

    renew

    renew

    GTCC

    GTCC

    Combturbine/diesel

    Combturbine/diesel

    Steam(oil/gas)

    Steam(oil/gas)

    Nuclear

    Nuclear

    GasTurbineCombinedCycle(GTCC)is21%ofUSElectricPowerGeneraOonEIABaseCaseProjects>40%growthinUSGTCCcapacityby2040EIA:

    naturalgasturbinesarethemosteconomicalwaytomeetgrowthnaturalgas-firedplantsaccountformorethan50%of[capacity]addiOonsinallcasesexcepthighoilprices

  • GeneraOngCapacityAddiOonsReferenceCasethrough2040

  • ReferenceCase(RC)-GDP2.4%/yfrom2012-40.Oil~$141/barrel(2012$)in2040 LowEconomicGrowth-GDPat1.9%from2012to2040 HighEconomicGrowth-GDPat2.8%from2012to2040 NoSunset-RCandassumesextensionofallexisOngtaxcreditsandpolicies LowRenewableTechnologyCost-CAPXfornon-hydrorenewablesare20%