Powering Sydney¢â‚¬â„¢s Future Workshop ... Powering...

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Transcript of Powering Sydney¢â‚¬â„¢s Future Workshop ... Powering...

  • Monday 28 November, 2016

    Powering Sydney’s Future Workshop

    1

  • Welcome Gerard Reiter Executive General Manager, Asset Management TransGrid

    2

  • Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction

    • Sydney is the most important load in the country and it is growing

    • TransGrid and Ausgrid’s electricity networks are critical to support this growth

    3

  • High load areas • CBD • Inner suburbs • Transport corridors

    Key customers • Sydney CBD • Sydney Airport • Port Botany • Major rail and road links.

    Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction

  • Powering Sydney’s Future - Introduction

    • Complex network built in the 60s and 70s

    • Networks’ abilities to meet growing need is degrading

    • Timing is critical. To have a solution in place to meet the need we have to act now

    • TransGrid and Ausgrid are committed to an open and open-minded process to find a reliable and efficient solution

    5

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – 2014 consultation

    • 400 stakeholders representing the public, researchers, industry, government and regulators participated in a workshop.

    • TransGrid and Ausgrid committed to: o Developing responsive network options – in the PSCR o Grow demand management using non-network options - in the PSCR and EOI o Playing active roles in the refinement of standards for a reliable supply at an

    efficient cost - engaged with IPART o Continue to engage and collaborate – we have and continue to do so today

    6

  • Powering Sydney’s Future Ausgrid drivers Matthew Webb Manager Network Risk and Planning Ausgrid

  • • Approx. 200MW load from new large customers

    • Estimated 150 ~250MW from future large scale redevelopment

    Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Sydney – growth and additional loads

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Sydney – growth

    Forecast demand growth peak

    • Return to demand forecast growth seen in 2015 and 2016

    • New large customer loads driving future growth

    • Ausgrid base forecast is consistent with BIS Shrapnel forecast

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Deteriorating fluid filled cables

    • Ausgrid’s 132kV fluid filled cables mostly installed in 1960’s and 1970’s

    • Ausgrid has approx. 350km • Repairs are complex and

    time consuming • Ausgrid has an MOU with

    the EPA for reducing fluid leaks over time

  • Failure history Leaks

    Test Results

    Predictive unavailability model

    - History of cable failures with repair times getting longer - Consistent leaks and poor test results requiring repairs - All contributing to poor cable availability

    Repair Times

    Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Deteriorating fluid filled cables

  • • Total cable unavailability over past 4 years of approximately 17%

    • Cable fluid loss from leaks has been significant

    • Maintenance requirements continue to increase

    Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Deteriorating fluid filled cables

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Ausgrid drivers Planning based on community benefit

    • Network energy delivery capacity is declining

    • Customer demand for energy is increasing

    • Shortfall is expected unserved energy (EUE)

    • Trigger point - where accumulated value of EUE is greater than cost of project

    Project Trigger Point

  • TransGrid driver, proposed reliability standard and this process Anthony Englund Group Manager, Investment Strategy and Solutions

    TransGrid

    14

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

    • Not operating to its full capacity o Cable 42 CMS showed higher TR (2000s) o Backfill sampling (to 2009) o 1st derating - Anders & Orton review (2011) o Full backfill sampling program (to 2016) o 2nd derating – Anders (2016) o Cable and joint sampling (now)

    Driver 3: Cable 41

    • One of two 330kV cables, 20 km long, built in 1970s, 40 year nominal life

    15

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

    Proposed new reliability standard

    • About fine-tuning price/service level balance

    • IPART: ‘Modified n-2 + 0.6 minutes EUSE per year at average demand’

    • EUSE equivalent of 20MW (UNSW or Kensington) one hour per year

    • An important, evolutionary change but…

    • Capacity reductions and load growth put us in deficit from 2017

    • Challenge to supply energy, major challenge to supply appropriate capacity

    • Key message: we need to know what non-network solutions can deliver

    16

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

    Project trigger point

    Energy shortfall (MWh)

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

    Capacity shortfall (MW)

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – TransGrid driver, proposed standard and process

    Process

    2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

    RIT-T process

    Environmental planning process

    Implementation phase

    Design phase

    • PSCR subs due 13 Jan 2017 • PADR Mar/April 2017 • PADR subs due May/June 2017 (6 weeks) • PACR July/Aug 2017

    19

  • Considering all options Nalin Pahalawaththa Group Manager, Power System Analysis TransGrid

    20

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

    The planning process considers:

     Reliability

     Cost

     Environment

    21

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

    In situ replacement of cables

    330 kV cable replacement: • Cable Outage – up to 2-5 years • High costs – similar to new cable

    development • Access issues • 4 x the capacity of 132 kV cable

    132 kV cable replacement: • Environmental risk – crossing harbour • High costs – similar to new cable

    development • Limited improvement to network capability

    22

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

    New Cables – 330 kV Vs 132 kV

    • Limited Capability enhancement from

    132 kV option

     load growth

     Network Development flexibility

    • 132 kV = higher costs ($/MW)

    • 132 kV = higher community &

    environmental impact

    132 kV Option

    330 kV Option

    23

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

    New cables – 330 kV vs 132 kV

    • Limited Capability enhancement from

    132 kV option:

    o Load growth

    o Network development flexibility

    • High costs ($/MW)

    • Community and environmental impact

    24

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

    Route selection: Sydney’s East • 3 out of 6 possible route options were

    considered feasible (approx. 26km)

    • Environmental impact on national parks and harbour crossing

    • Significant high costs due to the geography of the area.

    • Network limitations: overloading Sydney’s North to East via 330 kV lines

    Sydney East

    Sydney North

    Rookwood Road

    Sydney West

    Sydney South

    Beaconsfield

    Haymarket

    25

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

    Route selection: Sydney’s North • 4 out of 7 possible route options

    were considered feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations)

    • Environmental impact on national parks and harbour crossing

    • Significant costs due to the geography of the area and the length of the route

    Sydney East

    Sydney North

    Rookwood Road

    Sydney West

    Sydney South

    Beaconsfield

    Haymarket

    26

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

    Route selection: Sydney’s South • 3 out of 9 possible route options were

    considered feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations)

    • Diversity issue: o Concentrate of 330 kV supply to

    CBD from one location o Part of route is along existing 330kV

    cables

    • Environmental and community impact on Georges River National Park and high density residential area

    • Similar costs to Rookwood Road option

    Sydney East

    Sydney North

    Rookwood Road

    Sydney West

    Sydney South

    Beaconsfield

    Haymarket

    27

  • Powering Sydney’s Future – Considering all options

    Route selection: Rookwood Road • 13 possible route options were considered

    feasible (tunnels, overhead lines, combinations)

    • Provided diversity to supply CBD area

    • Utilised existing 330 kV supply capacity from Sydney’s West to Rookwood Road

    • Low costs compared with the Sydney North and East options

    • Relatively low community a