Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

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Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources: Observability and Detectability Studies Presented by Dr. Ning Zhou [email protected] Associate Professor Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering Binghamton University Vestal, NY 13902 02/23/2020 Online Webinar hosted by: IEEE PES Binghamton, Mississippi Chapters, and Dynamic State and Parameter Estimation Taskforce

Transcript of Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

Page 1: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of

Renewable Energy Sources:

Observability and Detectability Studies

Presented by

Dr. Ning Zhou

[email protected]

Associate Professor

Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering

Binghamton University

Vestal, NY 13902

02/23/2020

Online Webinar hosted by:

IEEE PES Binghamton, Mississippi Chapters, and Dynamic State and Parameter

Estimation Taskforce

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Collaborators and Sponsors of

Presented Work

Collaborators (sorted by their last names)

โ‘ Shahrokh Akhlaghi (Ulteig Engineers Inc.)

โ‘ Renke Huang, Zhenyu Huang, Shaobu Wang, et al. (PNNL)

โ‘ Da Meng, Shuai Lu (EnerMod)

โ‘ Greg Welch (University of Central Florida)

โ‘ Junbo Zhao (Mississippi State University)

Sponsors (sorted by their names)

โ‘ DOE Advanced Grid Modeling program

โ‘ NSF CAREER grant no. #1845523

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Outlines

โ€ข Background

โ€ข Dynamic State Estimation in Power Systems

โ€ข Observability and Detectability Analyses

โ€ข Conclusions and Future Work

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SCADA/EMS Systems

3Figure from Abur, Ali, and Antonio Gomez Exposito. Power system state estimation:

theory and implementation. CRC press, 2004.

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Critical role of state estimation in

power system operations

4 Figure from Wood, Allen J., Bruce F. Wollenberg, and Gerald B. Sheblรฉ. Power

generation, operation, and control. John Wiley & Sons, 2013.

Inputs:

โ€ข Data

โ€ข Models

Outputs:

โ€ข Estimated states

โ€ข Improved models

Goal: Support well-informed decision making.

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Problem Statement

โ€ข State Estimator:

โ€“ Monitors operating conditions (variables)

of a power grid in a control center

โ€“ Supports real-time operations (e.g., ED,

OPF)

โ€ข Challenges:

โ€“ Noise and even gross errors in

measurements (Inaccuracy)

โ€“ Limited number of direct

measurements (limited scope)

5

?

?

Figure from Wood, Allen J., Bruce F. Wollenberg, and Gerald B. Sheblรฉ. Power

generation, operation, and control. John Wiley & Sons, 2013.

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Classical Solutions: SSE

โ€ข Static State Estimation (SSE)

โ€“ Estimate ๐‘ฅ , ๐‘๐‘ข๐‘  ๐‘ฃ๐‘œ๐‘™๐‘ก๐‘Ž๐‘”๐‘’ ๐‘โ„Ž๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘œ๐‘Ÿ๐‘ 

โ€“ By integrating

โ€ข SCADA/PMU measurements: z

โ€ข Power flow models

โ€“ To

โ€ข Filter out noise using spatial redundancy

โ€ข Estimate variables that are not measured

โ€ข Example Algorithms

โ€“ Weighted least squares (WLS)

โ€“ Least absolute values (LAV)6

๐‘ง = โ„Ž ๐‘ฅ + ๐‘Ÿ

X12=0.2 pu

X13=0.4 pu

X23=0.25 pu

?

?

min๐‘ฅ

๐ฝ ๐‘ฅ = ๐‘–=1

๐‘š 1

๐‘…๐‘–๐‘–๐‘ง๐‘– โˆ’ โ„Ž๐‘– ๐‘ฅ

min๐‘ฅ

๐ฝ ๐‘ฅ = ๐‘ง โˆ’ โ„Ž ๐‘ฅ T๐‘…โˆ’1 ๐‘ง โˆ’ โ„Ž ๐‘ฅ

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Limitations of Conventional SSE

โ€ข Divergence caused by time-skewed measurements

โ€ข Lack of current and future visions

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Significant frequency deviations from the nominal 60

Hz during the August 14, 2003 Northeast Blackout [1]

[1] Z. Huang, N. Zhou, R. Diao, S. Wang, S. Elbert, D. Meng and S. Lu, "Capturing

real-time power system dynamics: Opportunities and challenges," in 2015 IEEE

Power & Energy Society General Meeting, Denver, CO, USA, 2015.

Communication and

computation delay

Time skew

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Outlines

โ€ข Background

โ€ข Dynamic State Estimation in Power Systems

โ€ข Observability and Detectability Analyses

โ€ข Conclusions and Future Work

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Our Visions on

Dynamic State Estimation (DSE)

โ€ข An integrated dynamic state estimator (iDSE):

โ€“ Spatial and temporal correlations

โ€ข Featuresโ€“ Future visions

โ€“ Accurate estimates

โ€“ Fast responses

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Future

Current Time

Forecasting

Resolution

Forecasting Horizon

Historical Record Forecasted States

Past

Power System

States

Confidence

Intervals

๐‘ง๐‘˜ = โ„Ž ๐‘ฅ๐‘˜ + ๐‘ฃ๐‘˜

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+1 = ๐‘“ (๐‘ฅ๐‘˜ , ๐‘ข๐‘˜) + ๐‘ค๐‘˜ ๐‘„ = ๐ธ ๐‘ค๐‘˜๐‘ค๐‘˜๐‘‡

๐‘… = ๐ธ ๐‘ฃ๐‘˜๐‘ฃ๐‘˜๐‘‡

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Benefits of DSE

not Available to SSE

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Communication and

computation delay

Time skew

Forecasting

Horizon

โ–ช SSE provides a vision of past

โ–ช SSE may suffer from the time

skew problem

โ‘ iDSE can align the measurements

โ‘ iDSE can forecast into the future

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Formulation of Dynamic State

Estimation (DSE) Approaches

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โ€ข Two-Step Procedure:โ€“ Prediction through dynamic simulation

โ€“ Correction to include new measurements

โ€ข DSE Algorithms:โ€“ EKF (Extended Kalman filter)

โ€“ EnKF (Ensemble Kalman filter)

โ€“ UKF (Unscented Kalman filter)

โ€“ PF (Particle filter)

Prediction

through dynamic simulation

Correction

includes new measurementInitialization

x0, k=1

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’ = ๐‘“ (๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’1

+ , ๐‘ข๐‘˜โˆ’1)

Measurements: zk

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+ = ๐‘ฅ๐‘˜

โˆ’ + ๐‘ง๐‘˜ โˆ’ โ„Ž(๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’)

k=k+1

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’1

+

Q R

Ref: N. Zhou, D. Meng, Z. Huang and G. Welch, "Dynamic State Estimation of a Synchronous Machine Using PMU Data:

A Comparative Study," in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 450-460, Jan. 2015

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Practical Imperfections and Solutions

โ€ข Systemโ€™s Non-linearity : interpolation[1]

โ€ข Unknown and varying noise covariance: adaptive tuning[2]

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Residual Analysis:

Prediction

through dynamic simulation

Correction

includes new measurementInitialization

x0, k=1

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’ = ๐‘“ (๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’1

+ , ๐‘ข๐‘˜โˆ’1)

zk

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+ = ๐‘ฅ๐‘˜

โˆ’ + ๐‘ง๐‘˜ โˆ’ โ„Ž(๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’)

k=k+1

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+๐‘ฅ๐‘˜โˆ’1

+

Q R

Adaptive Tuning Interpolation

๐‘…๐‘’๐‘  ๐‘ข๐‘Ž๐‘™ = ๐‘ง๐‘˜ โˆ’ โ„Ž(๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+)

๐‘ง๐‘˜ = โ„Ž ๐‘ฅ๐‘˜ + ๐‘ฃ๐‘˜

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+1 = ๐‘“ (๐‘ฅ๐‘˜, ๐‘ข๐‘˜) + ๐‘ค๐‘˜

๐‘„ = ๐ธ ๐‘ค๐‘˜๐‘ค๐‘˜๐‘‡

๐‘… = ๐ธ ๐‘ฃ๐‘˜๐‘ฃ๐‘˜๐‘‡

[1] S. Akhlaghi, N. Zhou and Z. Huang, "A Multi-Step Adaptive Interpolation Approach to Mitigating the Impact of Nonlinearity on Dynamic

State Estimation," in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 3102-3111, July 2018

[2] S. Akhlaghi, N. Zhou and Z. Huang, "Adaptive adjustment of noise covariance in Kalman filter for dynamic state estimation," 2017 IEEE

Power & Energy Society General Meeting, Chicago, IL, 2017 (Best Conference Paper on Power System Modeling and Analysis)

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Outlines

โ€ข Background

โ€ข Dynamic State Estimation in Power Systems

โ€ข Observability and Detectability Analyses

โ€ข Conclusions and Future Work

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Motivation of Observability and

Detectability Analysis for DSE

Objectives of a DSE observer:

โ€ข Estimate states (observability & detectability)

โ€ข Minimize cost

Approach:

โ€ข Measurement placement

โ€ข Model setup (inputs/outputs)

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๐‘ง๐‘˜ = โ„Ž ๐‘ฅ๐‘˜ + ๐‘ฃ๐‘˜

๐’™๐’Œ+๐Ÿ = ๐‘“ (๐’™๐’Œ, ๐‘ข๐‘˜) + ๐‘ค๐‘˜

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Problem Formulation for

Observability and Detectability Analyses

Given zk, uk, h and f

โ‘ Observability (initial-state estimation):

Can x0 be uniquely determined?

โ‘ Detectability (asymptotic estimation):

Can xk be uniquely determined as ๐‘˜ โ†’ โˆž ?

โ‘ Observability Detectability

๐‘ฅ0

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+1=๐’‡ (๐‘ฅ๐‘˜,๐’–๐’Œ)๐‘ฅ๐‘˜

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๐’›๐’Œ = ๐’‰ ๐‘ฅ๐‘˜

๐‘ฅ๐‘˜+1 = ๐’‡ (๐‘ฅ๐‘˜ , ๐’–๐’Œ)

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Observability Analysis

โ‘Observability analysis methodโ€“ Observability matrix (linearization of the analytical models)

โ€“ Empirical observability Gramian matrix (simulation models)

โ€“ Lie-derivative method (accurate, but high computation cost)

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๐‘ฆ(๐‘ก) = โ„Ž ๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก , ๐‘ข(๐‘ก)

แˆถ๐‘ฅ(๐‘ก) = ๐‘“ (๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก , ๐‘ข(๐‘ก))

๐‘ฆ ๐‘ก = าง๐ถ๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก + เดฅ๐ท๐‘ข(๐‘ก)

แˆถ๐‘ฅ(๐‘ก) = าง๐ด๐‘ฅ(๐‘ก) + เดค๐ต๐‘ข(๐‘ก)เทจ๐‘‚ =

าง๐ถาง๐ถ าง๐ดโ‹ฎ

าง๐ถ าง๐ด๐‘›โˆ’1

๐‘†๐‘†๐‘‰ = ๐‘ ๐‘ฃ เทจ๐‘‚SSV: smallest singular values

J. Qi, K. Sun and W. Kang, "Optimal PMU placement for power system dynamic state estimation by using empirical observability Gramian," IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 2041-2054, 2015.

K. Sun, J. Qi and W. Kang, "Power system observability and dynamic state estimation for stability monitoring using synchrophasor measurements," Control Engineering Practice, vol. 53, pp. 160-172, 2016.

A. Rouhani and A. Abur, "Observability analysis for dynamic state estimation of synchronous machines," IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 32, no. 4, pp. 3168-3175, 2017.

แ‰๐‘†๐‘†๐‘‰ = 0 ๐‘ˆ๐‘›๐‘œ๐‘๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘Ÿ๐‘ฃ๐‘Ž๐‘๐‘™๐‘’

0 < ๐‘†๐‘†๐‘‰ โ‰ค ๐œ– ๐‘€๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘” ๐‘›๐‘Ž๐‘™๐‘™๐‘ฆ ๐‘‚๐‘๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘Ÿ๐‘ฃ๐‘Ž๐‘๐‘™๐‘’๐‘†๐‘†๐‘‰ > ๐œ– ๐‘‚๐‘๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘Ÿ๐‘ฃ๐‘Ž๐‘๐‘™๐‘’

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Unobservable Systems and States

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าง๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก = ๐‘ˆ๐‘‡๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก

๐’š ๐’• = เดฅ๐‘ช าง๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก + เดฅ๐ท๐‘ข(๐‘ก)

แˆถ าง๐‘ฅ(๐‘ก) = าง๐ด าง๐‘ฅ (๐‘ก) + เดค๐ต๐‘ข(๐‘ก)Kalman decomposition

แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ(๐‘ก)แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ(๐‘ก)

=๐ด๐‘›๐‘œ ๐ด12

0 ๐ด๐‘œ

๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก+

๐ต๐‘›๐‘œ

๐ต๐‘œ๐‘ข ๐‘ก

๐‘ฆ ๐‘ก = 0 ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก+ ๐ท ๐‘ข ๐‘ก

U ึš kernel เทจ๐‘‚ and its complementary basis

๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก โˆˆ ๐‘…๐‘Ÿ represents the observable states

๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก โˆˆ ๐‘…๐‘›โˆ’๐‘Ÿ represents the unobservable states

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DSE Observers of the

Unobservable States (xno)โ€ข System:

แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ(๐‘ก)แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ(๐‘ก)

=๐ด๐‘›๐‘œ ๐ด12

0 ๐ด๐‘œ

๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก+

๐ต๐‘›๐‘œ

๐ต๐‘œ๐‘ข ๐‘ก

โ€ข Its observer:แˆถเทœ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ(๐‘ก)แˆถเทœ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ(๐‘ก)

=๐ด๐‘›๐‘œ ๐ด12

0 ๐ด๐‘œ

เทœ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

เทœ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก+

๐ต๐‘›๐‘œ

๐ต๐‘œ๐‘ข ๐‘ก

+ ๐‘›๐‘œ

๐‘œ๐‘ฆ ๐‘ก โˆ’ 0 ๐ถ๐‘œ

เทœ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

เทœ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘กโˆ’ ๐ท๐‘ข ๐‘ก

โ€ข Estimation error: ฮ”๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก = เทœ๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก โˆ’ ๐‘ฅ ๐‘ก

ฮ” แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ(๐‘ก)ฮ” แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ(๐‘ก)

=๐ด๐‘›๐‘œ ๐ด12 โˆ’ ๐‘›๐‘œ๐ถ๐‘œ

0 ๐ด๐‘œ โˆ’ ๐‘œ๐ถ๐‘œ

ฮ”๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

ฮ”๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก

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๐‘ฆ ๐‘ก = 0 ๐ถ๐‘œ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก+ ๐ท ๐‘ข ๐‘ก

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Detectability Analysisโ€ข For estimation errors

โ€ข DSE observers converge (i.e., detectable) if

โ€“ ฮ” แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก โ†’ 0

โ€“ ฮ” แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก โ†’ 0๐‘Ž๐‘  ๐‘ก โ†’ โˆž

โ€ข Approach:

โ€“ Select model/measurement to make eig(๐ด๐‘›๐‘œ) stable

โ€“ Select K0 to make eig(๐ด๐‘œ โˆ’ ๐‘œ๐ถ๐‘œ) stable

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ฮ” แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ(๐‘ก)ฮ” แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ(๐‘ก)

=๐ด๐‘›๐‘œ ๐ด12 โˆ’ ๐‘›๐‘œ๐ถ๐‘œ

0 ๐ด๐‘œ โˆ’ ๐‘œ๐ถ๐‘œ

ฮ”๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

ฮ”๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก

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Application in the Selection of

Measurements and Models for DSE

DSE observer converges

(1) if the system is observable;

(2) or if the eigenvalues of

unobservable states are stable.

Take-away point:

Using voltage phasor (๐‘‰โˆ ๐œƒ๐‘ฃ ) of

terminal bus as input

โ†’ stability of the model

โ†’ convergence of the DSE

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5. Identify the unobservable and

marginally observable states (xno) using (8)

2. Linearize the model

around operation points

4. Is the model

observable according to (7)?

6. Are the eigenvalues

of Ano in (8) stable?

Identified a convergent

model for DSE

Candidate models with different

measurement setups for DSE

Yes

No

No

A divergent

model for DSE

3. Is the model stable?

No

Yes

Yes

1. Select one model

๐‘‰โˆ ๐œƒ๐‘ฃ

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Case Studies

21

30

2

1

G10

G1

39

G8

37

25

35

22

38

29

36

23

33

19

34

20

32

3110

6

9 8

5

7

4

3

11

12

13

1

4

1

5

18 17

27

26

16

28

21

24

G9

G2

G3

G5

G6

G7

G4

One-line diagram of IEEE 10-machine 39-bus system

PMU

Generatorโ€™s ODEs:

๐›ฟ

๐‘ก= ๐œ” โˆ’ ๐œ”๐‘  , (A1)

๐œ”

๐‘ก=

๐œ”๐‘ 

2๐ป๐‘‡๐‘€ โˆ’ ๐‘ƒโ€ฒ๐‘’ โˆ’ ๐ท ๐œ” โˆ’ ๐œ”๐‘  , (A2)

๐ธ๐‘žโ€ฒ

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐‘‘0โ€ฒ โˆ’๐ธ๐‘ž

โ€ฒ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘‘ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘‘โ€ฒ ๐ผ๐‘‘ + ๐ธ๐‘“๐‘‘ , (A3)

๐ธ๐‘‘โ€ฒ

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐‘ž0โ€ฒ โˆ’๐ธ๐‘‘

โ€ฒ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘ž โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘žโ€ฒ ๐ผ๐‘ž . (A4)

Exciterโ€™s ODEs:

๐ธ๐‘“๐‘‘

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐ธโˆ’ ๐ธ + ๐‘†๐ธ ๐ธ๐‘“๐‘‘ ๐ธ๐‘“๐‘‘ + ๐‘‰๐‘… , (A5)

๐‘‰๐น

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐นโˆ’๐‘‰๐น +

๐น

๐‘‡๐ธ๐‘‰๐‘… โˆ’

๐น

๐‘‡๐ธ ๐ธ + ๐‘†๐ธ ๐ธ๐‘“๐‘‘ ๐ธ๐‘“๐‘‘ , (A6)

๐‘‰๐‘…

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐ดโˆ’๐‘‰๐‘… + ๐ด ๐‘‰๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘“ โˆ’ ๐‘‰๐น โˆ’ ๐‘‰ . (A7)

Turbine-governorโ€™s ODEs:

๐‘‡๐‘€

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐ถ๐ปโˆ’๐‘‡๐‘€ + ๐‘ƒ๐‘†๐‘‰ , (A8)

๐‘ƒ๐‘†๐‘‰

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐‘†๐‘‰โˆ’๐‘ƒ๐‘†๐‘‰ + ๐‘ƒ๐ถ โˆ’

1

๐‘…๐ท

๐œ”

๐œ”๐‘ โˆ’ 1 . (A9)

Page 23: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

Testing Models

22

Model Case (a) (b) (c) (d)

Inputs Voltage phasor (๐“ฅ) Voltage phasor (๐“ฅ) Current phasor (๐“˜) Current phasor (๐“˜)

Outputs Pe & Qe None Pe & Qe None

UKF Converged Converged Converged Diverged

Smallest Singular Value 7.03 ยฑ 3.90 ร— 10โˆ’9 0 ยฑ 0 9.56 ยฑ 12.90 ร— 10โˆ’9 0 ยฑ 0

System observability Marginally Observable Unobservable Marginally Observable Unobservable

Page 24: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

(b): Unobservable and Stable

23

Model Case Case (a) Case (b) Case (c) Case (d)

Inputs Voltage phasor (๐“ฅ) Voltage phasor (๐“ฅ) Current phasor (๐“˜) Current phasor (๐“˜)

Outputs Pe & Qe None Pe & Qe None

UKF Converged Converged Converged Diverged

Observability

Gramian

SSV 7.03 ยฑ 3.90 ร— 10โˆ’9 0 ยฑ 0 9.56 ยฑ 12.90 ร— 10โˆ’9 0 ยฑ 0

Relative SSV 1.39 ยฑ 0.77 ร— 10โˆ’11 (N/A) 1.45 ยฑ 1.95 ร— 10โˆ’12 (N/A)

Observability

matrix

SSV 0.0959 ยฑ 0.0007 0 ยฑ 0 0.0357 ยฑ 0.00003 0 ยฑ 0

Relative SSV 8.32 ยฑ 0.04 ร— 10โˆ’9 (N/A) 1.70 ยฑ 0.002 ร— 10โˆ’8 (N/A)

Proposed

method

๐๐‘น 0.0138 ยฑ 0.0001 0 ยฑ 0 0.0135 ยฑ 0.00001 0 ยฑ 0

๐โ€ฒ๐‘น 1.37 ยฑ 0.01 ร— 10โˆ’4 (N/A) 9.37 ยฑ 0.01 ร— 10โˆ’5 (N/A)

Eigenvalue of the marginally

observable stateโˆ’0.4878 (N/A) โˆ’0.4820 (N/A)

Rightmost eigenvalue of the system โˆ’0.0606 ยฑ 0.0002 โˆ’0.0606 ยฑ 0.0002 1.7641 ยฑ 0.0013 1.7641 ยฑ 0.0013

System observability Marginally Observable Unobservable Marginally Observable Unobservable

System stability Stable Stable Not Stable Not Stable

Page 25: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

(b) Stability Results in the Convergence of DSE

Tโ€™d0๐€๐’“๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’•๐’Ž๐’๐’”๐’•

MSE of

Eโ€™d

MSE of

Eโ€™q

3.3 -0.213 4.8410-6 1.1410-5

33.0 -0.061 7.5110-6 1.1710-5

330.0 -0.007 23.1010-6 6.2810-5

24

StatesDominant Participation Factor of

๐€๐’“๐’Š๐’ˆ๐’‰๐’•๐’Ž๐’๐’”๐’• = โˆ’0.0606 ยฑ 0.0002Differential Equations

๐ธ๐‘‘โ€ฒ 0.07584 ยฑ 0.0003

๐ธ๐‘‘โ€ฒ

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐‘ž0โ€ฒ โˆ’๐ธ๐‘‘

โ€ฒ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘ž โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘žโ€ฒ ๐ผ๐‘ž .

๐ธ๐‘žโ€ฒ 0.9102 ยฑ 0.0003

๐ธ๐‘žโ€ฒ

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐‘‘0โ€ฒ โˆ’๐ธ๐‘ž

โ€ฒ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘‘ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘‘โ€ฒ ๐ผ๐‘‘ + ๐ธ๐‘“๐‘‘

ฮ” แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ(๐‘ก)ฮ” แˆถ๐‘ฅ๐‘œ(๐‘ก)

=๐ด๐‘›๐‘œ ๐ด12 โˆ’ ๐‘›๐‘œ๐ถ๐‘œ

0 ๐ด๐‘œ โˆ’ ๐‘œ๐ถ๐‘œ

ฮ”๐‘ฅ๐‘›๐‘œ ๐‘ก

ฮ”๐‘ฅ๐‘œ ๐‘ก

Page 26: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

(c): Marginally Observable & Unstable

25

Model Case Case (a) Case (b) Case (c) Case (d)

Inputs Voltage phasor (๐“ฅ) Voltage phasor (๐“ฅ) Current phasor (๐“˜) Current phasor (๐“˜)

Outputs Pe & Qe None Pe & Qe None

UKF Converged Converged Converged Diverged

Observability

Gramian

SSV 7.03 ยฑ 3.90 ร— 10โˆ’9 0 ยฑ 0 9.56 ยฑ 12.90 ร— 10โˆ’9 0 ยฑ 0

Relative SSV 1.39 ยฑ 0.77 ร— 10โˆ’11 (N/A) 1.45 ยฑ 1.95 ร— 10โˆ’12 (N/A)

Observability

matrix

SSV 0.0959 ยฑ 0.0007 0 ยฑ 0 0.0357 ยฑ 0.00003 0 ยฑ 0

Relative SSV 8.32 ยฑ 0.04 ร— 10โˆ’9 (N/A) 1.70 ยฑ 0.002 ร— 10โˆ’8 (N/A)

Proposed

method

๐๐‘น 0.0138 ยฑ 0.0001 0 ยฑ 0 0.0135 ยฑ 0.00001 0 ยฑ 0

๐โ€ฒ๐‘น 1.37 ยฑ 0.01 ร— 10โˆ’4 (N/A) 9.37 ยฑ 0.01 ร— 10โˆ’5 (N/A)

Eigenvalue of the marginally

observable stateโˆ’0.4878 (N/A) โˆ’0.4820 (N/A)

Rightmost eigenvalue of the system โˆ’0.0606 ยฑ 0.0002 โˆ’0.0606 ยฑ 0.0002 1.7641 ยฑ 0.0013 1.7641 ยฑ 0.0013

System observability Marginally Observable Unobservable Marginally Observable Unobservable

System stability Stable Stable Not Stable Not Stable

Page 27: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

Case (c) Detectability Analysis

26

Cases ๐€๐’Ž๐’‚๐’“๐’ˆ๐’Š๐’๐’‚๐’๐’๐’š ๐’๐’ƒ๐’”๐’†๐’“๐’—๐’‚๐’ƒ๐’๐’† ๐€๐’๐’ƒ๐’”๐’†๐’“๐’—๐’‚๐’ƒ๐’๐’†

(๐‘ช) โˆ’0.482 โˆ’5.276 ยฑ 7.920๐‘—, โˆ’3.111, โˆ’1.885, โˆ’0.377, โˆ’0.193 ยฑ 0.159๐‘—, 1.785

StatesDominant Participation Factor of

๐€๐’Ž๐’‚๐’“๐’ˆ๐’Š๐’๐’‚๐’๐’๐’š ๐’๐’ƒ๐’”๐’†๐’“๐’—๐’‚๐’ƒ๐’๐’† = โˆ’0. ๐Ÿ’๐Ÿ–๐Ÿ2Differential Equations

๐ธ๐‘‘โ€ฒ 1.241

๐ธ๐‘‘โ€ฒ

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐‘ž0โ€ฒ โˆ’๐ธ๐‘‘

โ€ฒ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘ž โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘žโ€ฒ ๐ผ๐‘ž .

๐ธ๐‘žโ€ฒ โˆ’0.285

๐ธ๐‘žโ€ฒ

๐‘ก=

1

๐‘‡๐‘‘0โ€ฒ โˆ’๐ธ๐‘ž

โ€ฒ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘‘ โˆ’ ๐‘‹๐‘‘โ€ฒ ๐ผ๐‘‘ + ๐ธ๐‘“๐‘‘

Case๐‘ป๐’’๐ŸŽ

โ€ฒ

(๐’”)eig(Amo)

๐‘ด๐‘บ๐‘ฌ ๐‘ฌ๐’…โ€ฒ

(ร— ๐Ÿ๐ŸŽโˆ’๐Ÿ•)

(c.1) 5.5 -0.482 0.724

(c.2) 55.0 -0.025 53.1

(c.3) -55.0 0.025 inf

Page 28: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

Outlines

โ€ข Background

โ€ข Dynamic State Estimation in Power Systems

โ€ข Observability and Detectability Analyses

โ€ข Conclusions and Future Work

27

Page 29: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

Conclusions (Observability & Detectability)

โ€ข DSE observers exist if

โ€“ Either the system is observable,

โ€“ Or the unobservable (or marginally observable) states have

stable eigenvalues.

โ€ข For a subsystem in the power grid,

โ€“ Models with terminal voltage as their inputs are good

candidates for DSE because nearly all of them are required to be

stable when connected to an infinite bus.

28

[3] N. Zhou, S. Wang, J. Zhao and Z. Huang, "Application of Detectability Analysis for Power System Dynamic State Estimation," in

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 3274-3277.

[4] N. Zhou, S. Wang, J. Zhao, Z. Huang, R. Huang, "Observability and Detectability Analyses for Dynamic State Estimation of the

Marginally Observable Model of a Synchronous Machine," (submitted).

Page 30: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

Conclusions (DSE)

โ€ข Capturing dynamics is necessary because the power

grid is trending to be more dynamic

โ€ข Dynamic state estimation:โ€“ Synchronize measurement data (overcome the time-skew problem)

โ€“ Forward-Looking vision

โ€ข Interpolation can be used to mitigate the negative impact

of non-linearity on estimation accuracy[1]

โ€ข Adaptive Q &R estimation can improve estimation

accuracy by balance the model noises and

measurement noises[2]

29

[1] Akhlaghi, Zhou, Huang, โ€œA Multi-Step Adaptive Interpolation Approach to Mitigating the Impact of Nonlinearity on Dynamic State

Estimationโ€, IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 2018.

[2] Akhlaghi, Zhou, Huang, "Adaptive Adjustment of Noise Covariance in Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation." 2017 IEEE

Power and Energy Society General Meeting (Best Conference Paper)..

Page 31: Power System State Estimation under High Penetration of ...

Questions or Comments?

Ning Zhou

email: [email protected]

phone: (607)777-3195

30