Power IBEF

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www.ibe.org

POW EROctober 2007

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POWEROctober 2007

Contents

Prole o Indian Power Sector

Policy and Regulation

Opportunities in the Indian Power Sector

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www.ibe.org

PROFILE OF INDIANPOWER SECTOR

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The Indian Power Sector has a less than 100 year history

1880s First electrication small hydel

in Darjeeling

1889 Commercial production & Distribution

starts in Calcutta

Indian Electricity Act, 1910.

1947 Power generating capacity only 1,362 MW The Electricity (Supply) Act, 1948 SEB ormation

Creation o central generation companies

CEA constituted

1956 Industrial Policy Resolution reserves

production o power or public sector

1960s and 70s Impetus or expansion o ruralelectrication

PROFILE OF INDIAN POWER SE CTORPOWER October 2007

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1975 NTPC and NHPC set up

1989 NPTC set up. Renamed POWER GRID

in 1992.

1991 Liberalisation; amendments in Electricity

(Supply) Act

1992 Ministry o Power constituted 1995 Policy or Mega power projects introduced

1998 CERC and SERCs set up

2001 Energy Conservation Act

2003 New Electricity Act

2006-07 Power generation capacity stands

at 551.7 Billion Units


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From humble beginnings in the 1880s, the Indian

Power Sector has come a long way

From one small unit in 1880s to 1362 MW

in 1947 to over 550 Billion Units in 2006-07


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The sector has multi-tier institutional arrangement

The primary agency responsible or the power

sector in India is the Ministry o Power, which

started unctioning with eect rom 2nd July 1992

Policy

Plan

Regulations

Generation

Transmission

System Operations

Distribution

Trading

Appeal

Centre

Ministry o Power

CEA

CERC

CentralGenerating Units

CTU

NRLDC RLDC

State

Trading Licencee

Appellate Tribunal

State Government

SERC

GENCOs IPPs

STU

SLDC

DistributionLicencee

Trading Licencee

Appellate Tribunal

Some

PrivatePlayers inGeneration

&Distribution


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A range o key organisations perorm several unctions

Organisation Established Core Expertise

Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC) 1948 Generation, Transmission and Distribution in speciied region.

Bhakra Beas Management Board (BBMB) 1967 Administration, Operation and Maintenance o projects under Board.

Rural Electriication Corporation (REC) 1969 Financing and implementing rural electriication schemes.

National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) 1975 Thermal plants: concept to commissioning and operations.

National Hydro Electric Power Corporation (NHPC) 1975 Hydro plants: concept to commissioning and operations.

North Eastern Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO) 1976 Developing power projects in North Eastern region o the country.

Power Finance Corporation (PFC) 1986 Financing o power development schemes.Tehri Hydro Development Corporation (THDC) 1988 Development o hydro potential in speciic river/valley.

Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN) 1988 Development o hydro potential in speciic basin.

Powergrid (Powergrid) 1989 Transmission system or evacuation o central sector power and

establishment/operation o inter-regional grids, load despatch centres.

Power Trading Coprporation (PTC) 2001 Trading o power

Bureau o Energy Eiciency (BEE) 2002 Responsible or spearheading the improvement o energy eiciency o economy through regulatory and promotional instruments


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Generation has increased over the years

From humble beginnings in the 1880s, the Indian

power sector has come a long way

From one small unit in 1880s to 1362 MW in

1947 to over 550 billion units in 2006-07

Generation (Billion Units)

2006-07(up to Jan. 07)

2004-05

551.7

2002-03

2000-01

1990-91

617.5

587.4

558.3

531.4

515.3

499.5

380.1

264.3


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Generation installed capacity

In terms o installed capacity, the state sector

accounts or the most, ollowed by the Central

and private sectors

Installed Capacity (Mega Watt)

State

Private

Central

70681

18418

45905

Installed Capacity (%)

n State n Private

n Central

34%

14%

52%


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Generation mix dominated by thermal and hydro

Thermal power accounts or much o the power

produced in India, ollowed by hydro. Other

means o generation are negligible in comparison.

Generation Type %

n Thermal n Nuclear

n Renewables n Hydro

26%

64%

7%3%

Generation Type

Hydro

Thermal

Nuclear

Renewables

34,654

86,935

4,120

10,175

Mega Watt


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Generation plant load actor has been improving

PLF o generating plants has improved consistently

over the last ew years. The all India average PLF

on January 2007 stood at 75.6 % compared

to 53.8 % in 1990-91

PLF o central plants in 2006-07 stood at 83.3

% while the average PLF o the state sector units in

2006-07 was 69.5 %

PLF (%) during last year o the place

n Central Sec nState Sec

n Private Sec nOverall

90.085.0

VI VII VIII IX X

75.070.065.060.055.050.045.040.0


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Per capita consumption has sky-rocketed

Per capita consumption o power in India has

gone up signicantly since the 1990sTrend in per Capita Consumption

2012 1000

631

582

408

238

131

Projected

2006

2004

2001

1990

1980

19701960

1950

8435

18

No. o Units


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The demand supply gap is growing

Energy requirement during 2006-07 (upto Jan 07)

stood at 572,812 MU and energy availability

during the same period was 519,656 MU resulting

in energy shortage o 53,156 MU (9.3%)

Peak demand or energy in 2006-07 (upto Jan 07)

was 100,403 MW whereas peak demand met

during the same period was 86,425 MW andhence the peak shortage stood at 13,978

MW (13.9%)

Deamand Supply Gap Energy (BU)

n Average Energy Demand (BU)

n Generation during last year o the plan period (BU)

Energy(BU)

VI VII VIII IX X

620.9559.4

266.4

447.3

168.1

156.8245.4

395.9

517.4559.4

Plan Period

DemandSupply gap


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Planned capacity additions (MW) 11th Plan

Signicant capacity additions to generation

are being planned under the 11th Plan

Central State Private Total

Hydro 11289 2637 3263 17189

Thermal 25860 16152 4102 46114

Nuclear 3160 0 0 3160

Renewables NA NA NA 14000

Total 40309 18789 7365 66463


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Generation backend - uels outlook

Coal

Vast reserves mineable coal in excess o 2,800

million tonnes identied

Oil

Reserves estimated at 700 MMT o oil: Ministry

o petroleum and Natural gas

Gas

Discoveries o gas to the tune o 700 bcm2 in

the last decade

Nuclear

One o the largest reserves o the nuclear

uel thorium. Indo-US deal +ve

Hydro

Potential o about 150,000 MW; only 17 percent

harnessed so ar


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Generation backend - uels outlook

Renewables

Vast potential - Solar power, biomass and wind power;

current installed capacity 9220 MW, constituting about

7.3 % o total installed

generation capacity. India already ourth largest

in the world in terms o wind energy installations

Signicant reserves o coal and gas exist and

signicant potential to harness renewables


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Transmission has grown signicantly

Transmission lines have grown rom 3,708 ckm

in 1950 to more than 265,000 ckm now

Country divided into ve regions or transmission

systems, namely, northern, north eastern, eastern,

southern and western

X Plan XI Plan Total

POWERGRIDs Outlay 21,370 28,258 49,628

Private Sector participation 9,710 11,185 20,895

Total Central Sector 31,080 39,443 70,523


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Transmission has grown signicantly

National Grid on the cards


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Extensive distribution networks but high losses

Extensive network o sub-transmission and

distribution systems have been set up in India

T & D losses have been consistently on the higher

side and are presently in the range o 18 percent

to 62 percent in various states

APDRP was identied in 2000-01 as the key area

to bring about the eciency and improve nancial

health o the power sector - payos beginning to

trickle in

Extensive distribution networks but high losses

n March 2006 n2001

40 60 800 20 100

11 KV Feeder

Consumer 92

78

96

81

Percentage


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Financial perormance

Financial perormance o the State power sector

1991-92 2003-04(P) 2004-05(RE) 2005-06(AP)

A. Gross Subsidy involved

(i) On account o sale o electricity to

(a) Agriculture 5,938 23,246 23,805 25,377

(b) Domestic 1,310 8,885 9,639 10,033

(c) Inter-State Sales 201 923 866 591

Total 7,449 33,154 34,311 36,002

(ii) Subventions Received rom State Governments 2,045 11,081 9,825 9,831

(iii) Net Subsidy 5.404 22,073 24,486 26,170

(iv) Surplus Generated by sale to other sectors 2,173 6,133 6,967 8,640

(v) Uncoverred Subsidy 3,231 15,941 17,520 17,530

B. Commercial Losses

(i) Commercial Losses (excluding subsidy)@ 4,117 20,379 20,715 22,013

(ii) Commercial Losses (including subsidy) NA 9,298 10,890 12,182

C Rate o Return (ROR%)# -12.70 -28.32 -27.97 -28.13

D Revenue MibilisationAdditional Revenue Mobilisation rom achieving

(a) 3% ROR 4,959 22,538 22,936 24,362

(b) From introducing 50 paise per unit romAgriculture/irrigation

2,176 540 755 773


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RE: Revised Estimates * Provisional

AP: Annual Plan Project # or losses without subsidy

@ Commercial losses are dierent From uncovered subsidy because they include nancial results o other activities undertaken by the SEBs.

Source: Planning Commission


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Non-realisation o revenue or power generated

has led to nancial degradation and spiral o

worsening perormance

The power sector in India suers huge nancial

losses to the tune o US$ 6 billion per annum.

These losses have accumulated over time and

resulted in inadequate nancial resources orcapacity augmentation



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In the expectation o greater private investment,

the Eighth (19921997) and the Ninth Five-Year

(19972002) plans o India included a sharp

reduction in plan allocation in proportion to the

total plan outlay

A not-so-encouraging response rom private

investors led to its enhancement in the TenthFive-Year plan (200207).

Trends in public investment

Trends in public investment

n Power Sector Expenditure (Rs. Billion)

n Power Setor Outlay (Rs. Billion)

IV

0 3000200015001000500 2500

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

III

II

I


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Socio-political infuences

High level o network losses

High level o nancial losses

Inadequate generation and transmission capacity

Poor quality o supply

Key issues conronting the sector


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www.ibe.org

POLICY AND

REGULATION

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Power market structure

Stakeholder outlook has been slowly improvingGeneration CGS

Mega PowerProjects

CERC

IPP/ CPPStateOwned

Licenseeowned

Transmission

Distribution

PowerGrid (CTU)

Consumers

DistributionLicensee

DistributionLicensee

SERC

STURPC/RLDC

Trader

POLICY AND REGULATONPOWER October 2007

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Improved policy & regulation regimes

Recent policy/regulatory actions

EA 2003 introducing

Non-discriminatory open access to

transmission

at least

Section 63 and ERCs to ollowcompetitive

bidding process

Section 79(2) - CERC to advise GoI on

promoting competition

Section 60 Controlling abuse o

market power

Market evolving -- competitive structure

& minimal regulatory micro-management

market power

Evolving market structure in power sector

NationalTari Policy

2006

Facilitating openaccess, supporting

comp bidding ,separating wiresbusinesses

enorcing USO

ContestablePrice Discovery

Competitive newgeneration

Open Access, Sec 63/Section 79( 2)/ Sec 60

Possible Wholesale/Retail Competition

ElectricityAct 2003

+

+

Redu

cingne

edformicr

omanag

emen

tbyre

gulat

ors

Increasin

gpo

tential

com

petit

ion

Comp. Bidding

Guidelines -2004/5


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Improved policy & regulation regimes

Competitive Bidding Guidelines - 2004/05

Competitive acquisition o new generation

contestability

National Tariff Policy 2006

Promoting retail competition

Supporting competitive acquisition o generationcapacity

Enabling choice


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Enabled Market Model under EA 2003

Genco Genco Genco

Open Access in

Transmission

Creating wholesale competition

Creating Retail

Competition

Open Access inDistribution

Traders

Customer CustomerCustomer

Disco Disco Disco

Traders

Distribution

Transmission

Generation


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Impact on Industry structure under EA 2003

Generators Long Term PPAs Licensing o capacity;

extended project leadtimes

Need or guarantees

Restrictions on captivegeneration

Transmission

Bulk Supply Taris (BST)

Single Buyer Model (SBM) Natural monopolies No private investment

Distribution Retail Supply Taris Monopoly over consumers

Lopsided tari structure Power Thet Poor collections

Unreliable supply Poor quality

Consumers

Free access to consumers and traderso choice

No restrictions on captive generation Reduced lead times Reduced nancial and regulatory risk

Provisions to develop a robust powertrading market

Will mitigate o-take risk or generators

Will balance inter-regional disparitiesin power availability

Non -discriminatory open access

to transmission lines Multi Buyer Model Private captive investment allowed

Open access (in 5 years) Surcharge on open access (not

applicable to captive generation) No monopoly over consumers Parallel distribution networks allowed 100% metering in 2 years

Consumer choice available

Generators

Traders

Transmission

Distributinon

Consumers


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EA 2003 provides institutional ramework

Government Owned Vertically

Integrated Monopoly

Unbundled Utilities

Privatized Distribution

Multiple Distribution Licensees

Non-discriminatory Open Access

Expected Outcomes

Reduction in Losses

Regulated Cost Refective Tari

phasing out cross subsidies

Competition in Generation and

Retail Supply

Internal resource generation

Private sector resource

mobilization

Improved Reliability and Quality

o Supply


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Mega Power Policy

Exemption rom Custom duties, excise & central

levies.

Section 10(23) G benet on und raising.

Increased ECB capital limits.

State Implementation support. Decreased import duty on uel i.e. coal

& liquid uel

100% FDI allowed in Indian Power Sector

(except Nuclear)

A range o scal incentives have been introduced


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www.ibe.org

OPPORTUNITIES IN THEINDIAN POWER SECTOR

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Electrication o households by 2010 about

50% yet to be electried

Perspective Announced: 2012

Per capita availability o 1000 units 631 units

at present.

Installed capacity over 2,00,000 MW 1,35,006 MW installed at present.

Inter Regional Transmission Capacity

37,000 MW 9500 MW at present.

Energy Eciency/conservation savings about

15%.

Quality and Reliable power supply

tremendous gaps

Above opens up signicant opportunities

Opportunities Macro perspective

OPPORTUNITIES IN THE INDIAN POWER SECTORPOWER October 2007

Source: MoP, GoI

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Annual GDP growth rate o about 8 % would

necessitate a minimum 10 % growth rate in the Indian

power sector

At this rate, economy would be 8 times the

present size by 2020

Sustained GDP growth will require similar growth

in the power sector Indias GDP Growth rate %(Base year : 1993-94)

2006-07

7.8

8.6

9.0

7.5

4.4

5.6

4.4

6.1

6.5

4.8

7.8

2005-06

2004-05

2003-04

2002-032001-02

2000-01

1999-00

1998-99

1997-98

1996-97


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Foreign Investment:

100% FDI is allowed in all segments o power

sector including Trading

No discrimination between domestic or oreign

investors

Fiscal incentives: Zero customs duty on import o capital goods

or Mega Power Projects

Income tax holiday or generating plants or

10 years

Multiple Investment Opportunities


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Impressive progress in project execution:

Public sector investment also stepped up to

supplement the private sector 40,000 MW o

generation capacity already under execution and

US$ 43 bn already committed

Financial closure o 4400 MW capacity

in generation projects in private sector

Financial Closure o another 2200 MW

is in advanced stage

Another 10000 MW being appraised

by Financial Institutions

Multiple Investment Opportunities


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Huge opportunity spaces exist in the Power

Sector, considering the demand

Power requirement projections show scale o opportunity

Year Total Energy Required(Billion kWh)

Required(Billion kWh)

Projected PeakDemand (GW)

Required(GW)

Installed Capacity

At GDP Growth Rate At GDP Growth Rate At GDP Growth Rate

8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 9%

2011-12 1097 1167 158 168 220 233

2016-17 1524 1687 226 250 306 337

2021-22 2118 2438 323 372 425 488

2026-27 2866 3423 437 522 575 6852031-32 3880 4806 592 733 778 960


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For a capacity addition program o 1,00,000 MW,

investments o about US$ 100 Billion needed

Additional US$ 100 Billion needed or

augmentation o Transmission, sub-transmission

and Distribution networks, and Rural electrication

Total US$ 200 Billion

20% o the Total requirement expected by Private

players

Electricity Act 2003 provides enabling ramework

Required investment scale - ample scope or sector investments


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Enablers

Generation Delicensed

Clear and transparent tari setting principles

Competitive bidding or power procurement

by licensees

Open access Captive policy

Incentives or Rural Electrication

Evolution o power markets

A range o generation opportunities exist


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Opportunities

IPP

CPP

Target Markets

Distribution licensees

Industrial Consumers

Rural areas

A range o generation opportunities exist


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Independent Power Transmission Company

Private players can construct, operate and

maintain transmission lines

Interregional Link Operations

Private transmission acilities may either take

the orm o an independent power transmission

company or a joint venture with the state-owned

transmission utilities

Transmission opportunities abound


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Merchant Transmission Capacity or Open

Access Customers

Transmission licensees to allow non-discriminatory open

access to their network on payment o

- Transmission charges

- Surcharge or cross subsidy, applicable to direct

consumers only

The rst Transmission Line on JV Route is being

executed with M/s TATA Power or Transmission system

associated with Tala HEP & East-North inter-connector.

Transmission opportunities abound


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Witnessing the Changes

Regulatory Commissions constituted in 22 states

Tari orders, perormance standards, terms and

conditions o supply and tari notied

Unbundling o the State Electricity Boards (SEBs)

Distribution reorms initiated Orissa and Delhi distribution privatized

Recovery rom SEBs regularized ater securitization

Principles o multi-year-tari (MYT) regime

proposed or urther privatization

Stability o past contracts (except Dabhol Power)

Power Sector investment Development scenario


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Development Initiated

Large capacity addition plans rmed up by Central

PSUs and private sector majors (Tata Power,

Reliance, Torrent)

Smaller players also have major expansion plans

(GVK, GMR)

Earlier ringe players (captive generation) entry

into the IPP sector (Jindal, Essar)

Entry o more number o players or takeover

o new privatized distribution

Power Sector investment Development scenario


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Generation

National Thermal Power Corporation Limited

Sixth largest thermal power producer in

the world and Indias largest power producer;

state owned player operating across the country

Tata Power The Tata group pioneered power generation

in India nine decades ago. Tata company has

presence in all segments - Thermal, Hydro, Solar,

Wind Energy, Transmission & Distribution

Key Domestic Players


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Generation

Reliance Energy Ltd

Indias leading integrated power utility company

in the private sector. It has a signicant presence

in generation, transmission and distribution o

power in the states o Maharashtra, Goa and

Andhra Pradesh.

Torrent Power

Entered the power sector by acquiring two old

state owned electricity companies and turned

them into power utilities comparable with the best.



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14 Manuacturing plants

279 Coal based Thermal Utility Sets o BHEL,

including 29 Sets o 500 MW and 157 Sets o

195-250 MW installed in the Country (As on

31.03.07)

During 2006-07, out o 279 Coal based Thermal

Utility Sets o BHEL in the Country, 77 setsoperated at PLF > 90% (6 sets at 100%; 18 sets

at 95 100% and 53 sets at 90-95%)



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Strengths of BHEL

Improvement on design philosophies to suit Indian

conditions based on vast experience.

Developed technologies/retrots to improve the

perormance e.g.

* Smart Wall Blower System

* Gravimetric eeders with micro processor controls

* Steam Tube Leakage Detection (STLD) system

* By-pass Over Fire Air System NOx Control

* High eciency BFP cartridge.



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Foreign players entered/planning to enter India

AES Corporation

CLP Power

Sumitomo


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Major investors in the Indian Power include CMS

Energy, Unocal, Woodside Petroleum, Siemens, ABB,

AES Transpower, Powergen, CLP, PSEG, Tractabel.

CMS holds around 20% stake in 235 MW

gas/naptha uelled combined cycle power project

promoted by GVK Reddy group at Jogurupadau

in Andhra Pradesh. CMS Energy and ABB are the major promoters

o the 250 MW lignite based power project at

Neyveli, Tamil Nadu.

CMS Energy along-with Unocal, Woodside

Petroleum and Siemens are part o a consortium

which plans to set up a 1885 MW LNG based

power project at Ennore, Tamil Nadu.

Private and oreign participation in Power sector


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Joint Venture between Ansaldo Caldaie (85%)

and GB Engineering (15%)

Product Range:

- Design, Manuacture and Supply o Utility Boilers

and HRSGs

Manufacturing Facilities in India:

- Trichy - In JV with existing manuacturers

(established)- Specialized Manuacturing bays or

products like Burners, Ljungstorm Airheaters, etc.

- Tuticorin - New Facility to augment the

manuacuturing capability in India investments

or uture big projects including large (Year 2008)

Ansaldo Caldie (India)


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Projects Handled in India:

- 1980s 3 X 200 MW Coal Fired Boilers or NTPC

Ramagundam

- 1990 2 X 500 MW Coal Fired Boilers or NTPC

Farakka

- 1998 1 X HRSG or 230 MW GT or Reliance

Energy, Samalkot

- 2003 2 X 210 MW Lignite Fired Tower Boilers

or NLC, Tamil Nadu

Ansaldo Caldie (India)


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JV Established on April 18 2007 by L&T (Larsen

& Toubro Ltd.) 51% Shares MHI (Mitsubishi

Heavy Industries) 49% Shares

Investment : $ 167 Million

Capability : 3,000 - 4,000 MW per annum

Factory : Operation within 18 months

Employee : 1,250

Location : Delhi and Surat

L&T MHI Boilers Pvt Ltd


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ALSTOM HYDRO has developed the BARODA

acility rom 2004 as an autonomous Manuacturing

and Project Execution acility with two objectives:

- to participate in the expansion o the Indian

domestic market or hydro power with a strong

determination to execute major projects

- to execute export hydro projects rom India.

12 major high capacity machines in operation

today; all have been ully reurbished between

2005 and 2007.

4 more heavy machines will be in operation

by March 2008, increasing production capacity

to 900,000 hours

Alstom Hydro


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Key Projects executed/under execution:

- VishnuPrayag (2 x 100MW, India) -

Pelton runner repair

- Chuzachen (2 x5 5 MW, India ) -

Complete Turbine & Generator

- Chamera III (3 x 77 MW, India ) -


- Subansiri (8 x 250 MW, India) -


- Uri II (4 x 60 MW, India) -


Alstom Hydro


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Toshiba hydro power projects in India

- KOLDAM 4 x 200 MW, HEP

- TEESTA-V (3x170MW)

- UMIAM I&II HEP(4x10.5MW, 2x9MW)

- UMIAM-I R&M (2003)

- PURULIA PUMPED STORAGE, HEP (4x225MW)

- DAM (2x10.6MW Turbine)

- HAMPI (2x10.6MW Turbine, 1962)

- SSNNL (6 x 200 MW), HEP

Toshiba Corporation


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VA TECH HYDRO is the FIRST oreign company

to set-up hydro manuacturing acilities in India

Capability or turnkey execution o complete

electrical Electro-Mechanical works

Manuacturing acilities or:

- Turbines, Governors, MIV & Auxiliaries

- Hydro Generator, Excitation, Automation

& Protection Systems

Orders in hand/completed

- Over 3000 MVA installed/order booked

- Hydro (New): 1600 MVA

- Hydro (R&M): 1400 MVA

VA Tech Hydro


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- Over 550 MW o Compact Hydro plants

executed

- Over 144 nos. Excitation Systems installed/

order booked

- Over 200 nos. Governors installed/order

booked

- Supplies all over the world (18 countries

in 5 continents)

VA Tech Hydro


O O S A O S C O

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FDI outlook has been improving steadily

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total Total(US $

Billion)

FDI in power sector 4760.2 8225.1 30494.6 1907.4 2510.6 1518.5 49416.2 1.1

TotalFDI inlow

100923.1 158418.9 161233.5 95640 147813.7 192707.2 8567365 19.04

Share o power

sector (%)

4.72 5.19 18.91 1.99 1.7 0.79 5.77 5.77

Actual FDI infows in Power Sector 2000 to 2005 (Rs. Million) trend ispositive


OPPORTUNITIES IN THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR

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FDI outlook has been improving steadily

Sector Majorityownership

30 June2004

31December

2004

31December

2005

31March

2006

NTPC Generation Public -- 4.84 6.86 7.07

BHEL Equipment Public 23.04 20.56 22.07 22.42

Reliance

Energy

Generation &

Distribution

Private 14.20 17.73 18.22 16.16

Jai Prakash

Hydro

Generation Private -- -- 3.59 3.79

CESC Generation &

Distribution

Private 13.71 15.08 17.20 19.19

Foreign holdings in select Indian power companies trend is +ve


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