Power generation and supply industry in india an economic analysis of the market structure

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Shwetabh Chandra - G012 Tanay Chitre - G013 Vikrant Dhall - G016 Prathmesh Kashikar -G038 Harsh Shah – G052 Kritarth Srivastav – G058 SBM-NMIMS, Mumbai Power Generation and Supply industry in India – An economic analysis of the market structure

description

includes the economic analysis of the power generation and supply industry in India.

Transcript of Power generation and supply industry in india an economic analysis of the market structure

Page 1: Power generation and supply industry in india   an economic analysis of the market structure

Shwetabh Chandra - G012

Tanay Chitre - G013

Vikrant Dhall - G016

Prathmesh Kashikar -G038

Harsh Shah – G052

Kritarth Srivastav – G058

S B M - N M I M S , M u m b a i

Power Generation and Supply industry in India – An economic analysis of the market structure

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Section 1. Introduction Electricity generation and transmission to the end user is one of the most capital intensive and critical sectors of a country’s economy. There are three fundamental parts to the process-

a) Generation b) Transmission c) Distribution

Generation-This is the first stage where the electricity is actually produced. Electricity may be produced from thermal sources, nuclear sources, wind, solar energy etc. India produces electricity primarily through the thermal sources such as coal Transmission-Once the electricity is generated, passing it through step up transformers increases its voltage. This electricity is then carried to different places. Distribution- The electricity from these lines is then taken to a Substation transformer. The substation transformer steps down the voltage. A distribution transformer might then lower this stepped down voltage. After this process is done, the electricity is finally supplied to the end user. India has experienced growth in power generation in every year since 2008. The growth rate in the power generation in India has been as follows.

Section 1.2: Overall Growth in Power Sector The overall power generated in the country has risen from 877 BU in 2011-12 to 911.652 BU in 2012-13. The overall growth rate from 2008 to 2013 was 3.96%. The growth in the thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear segment has been as follows-

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Growth in Power Generation

Growth in PowerGeneration

7.27

12.93

1.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Thermal Hydro Nuclear

Growth in power generation in respective category

Growth in powergeneration in respectivecategory

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Section 1.3: Overview of Power Sector in India

Major companies across the sectors are:

PSUs

1. NTPC Limited: National Thermal power Corporation Limited. India’s largest power producer and sixth-largest thermal power producer in the world. Installed capacity: 41,184 MW

2. NHPC Limited: National Hydro Power Corporation. Largest hydropower utility in India. Installed capacity: 5,295 MW

3. Damodar Valley Project: Generates power through three sources: coal, water and liquid fuel.

Private Companies

1. TATA POWER: India’s largest integrated power company with significant presence in solar, hydro, wind and geothermal energy space. Installed capacity: 8,521 MW

2. RELIANCE POWER: Total capacity (installed and under development) : 35,000 MW 3. ADANI POWER: one of India’s largest private thermal power producers. Installed capacity:

4,620 MW 4. TORRENT POWER: Operates in Gujarat and Maharashtra. Total installed capacity of 1697.1

MW

Section 1.4 The Tariff

Naturally, it is not the consumers who decide the tariffs of the electricity/unit. The CERC i.e the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) is the key regulator of power sector in India. It was constituted in 1998 with an objective to regulate the tariff of power generating companies be it public sector or private.

The tariff for supply of electricity is decide on the basis of :

I. Fixed or capacity charges (for Annual Fixed Cost) II. Energy or variable charges (For primary fuel)

The Annual fixed cost (AFC) of any power station may consist of the following components:

I. Interest on loan II. Depreciation

III. Interest on working capital IV. Operational expenses V. Maintenance expenses

The Energy Charge shall cover the limestone consumption cost in case of thermal power plants.Thus, on these bases, the price of electricity/unit is decided by the regulating body which may vary for

State Electricity

Boards 49%

Private sector 20%

Public Sector 31%

Power Sector in India

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residential, commercial and industrial consumers. Prices may also vary by time-of-day or by nature of supply circuit (5kW, 12kW, etc.) or single phase or three-phase.

Refer to Appendix 3 for detailed tariffs across different states of India

Section 2: Market Structure

According to William Baumol, the current formal definition of a natural monopoly is “an industry in which multi-firm production is more costly than production by a monopoly”. A natural monopoly arises in industries, which have high capital costs and high barriers to entry. These natural monopolies create economies of scale, which are large as compared to the market size. Due to the high barriers to entry, the number of possible companies that may enter in to this industry reduces even though it might have a high potential for earning. Natural monopolies usually tend to exist where the largest supplier in industry is often the first-mover. In such industries, the fixed costs predominate and such costs may also be termed as sunk costs.

Natural monopolies are a very common sight in essential services like gas pipelines, water supply, electricity supply, etc. Because there might be a tendency to exploit the power and raise prices, governments play the role of regulation and avoid market imbalance. Thus, as a result of the points mentioned, we consider the power industry in India to be a natural monopoly.

Now, with respect to the power industry and natural monopoly, let us understand two types of costs important from the microeconomic perspective:

1. Marginal cost, and 2. Fixed cost

Marginal cost: In an industry where natural monopoly does not exist, marginal cost decreases with the economies of scale. It then increases again as the company faces growing pains like inefficiencies, bureaucracy, employee over-load, etc. Along with this, the average cost of production also decreases and increases. However, a natural monopoly is different. It has a high fixed cost for a product irrespective of the output, but its marginal cost of production is roughly constant.

Fixed cost, an industry with one, requires a large number of customers to have a rational return on investment. Thus, as the firm gains market share and increases its output, the fixed cost gets divided among a large number of customers and thus, average total cost declines as output increases.

India has many power generating/distributing companies namely NTPC, Power grid Corp, Reliance infra, NHPC, Torrent Power, Tata Power, Adani power, JaiPrakash Power, GVK Power, etc. to name a few. But, all these companies do not distribute power in a single region or province. Each region has one power company. For example, Torrent Power in Ahmedabad, Reliance Infra and Tata Power in Mumbai, etc. Thus, the power industry can be classified as natural monopoly.

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Difference between pure monopoly and natural monopoly A pure monopoly exists when a single firm produces a product for which there are no close

substitutes. The characteristics of a pure monopoly are:

1. Single seller 2. No close substitute 3. Blocked entry/exit 4. Firm is the price maker

A natural monopoly on the other hand is said to be existing when a firm can produce a desired output at a lower cost than two or more firms i.e. economies of scale exists. A natural monopoly does not mean that only a single firm is providing service. It rather means that multiple firms providing a goods or service is far less efficient as compared to a single firm doing the same.

Section 3: Characteristic of Natural Monopoly 3.1: Barriers to Entry:

In pure monopoly, barriers to entry practically block all competition and few firms dominate market structure.

1) Economies of Scale act as a barrier to entry as new firms, which try to enter the market,

will not be able to realize the cost economies of the monopolist. They therefore wind up and are forced are out of business by a monopolist which can sell at a much lower price and still get profit out of it.

2) A new firm might try to enter with huge plant size but the financing required for a new venture at such a huge scale is difficult to procure.

3) A natural monopoly is a distinct type of monopoly that may arise when there are

extremely high fixed costs of distribution such as in power industry.

4) For a natural monopoly, long-run ATC intersects market demand curve at any point where ATC is declining.

5) Ownership of resources also serves as an entry barrier, such as owning a coal mine or a

key shale gas/natural gas reserve. This will make it difficult for other firms to acquire those assets.

6) Other strategic barriers could include any price slashing by a monopoly or a tie up with the government to supply electricity in a particular region.

Section 3.1.1: Entry Barriers in India 1. Debt exposure

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As per new World Bank report, accumulated losses for distribution companies stood at 25 billion$ in 2011. Total debt of the power sector stands at around 5% of country’s GDP. The sector has already bailed out twice, once in 2001 and other in 1990s both the time it had put huge cost on the exchequer. In such a condition with mounting debts and losses, any new player would not consider entering into this sector. Also, even the existing projects are not getting executed. In 2005, government of India had approved four UMPPs. Except for the two - Bedabahal UMPP and Cheyyur UMPP, the other two have not yet started in the eight years since then. The reason is the high cost of setting upa UMPP. The Cheyyur UMPP was set up a cost of Rs 24200 cr and Bedabahal at Rs 25200 cr. Assuming a debt/equity ratio of 3, setting up such a huge project would require developers to raise Rs 35000 cr in loans from banks/private investors who are already very stretched out with their exposure to Indian power sector companies.

As the cost of raising debt increases, new firms entering the market or even the existing firms will find it difficult to raise money. Lanco, a power sector player had to undergo a corporate debt restructuring plan and interest rates for power companies stand at 13-14%.

2. Subsidies Even though the long run average cost for natural monopolies should fall given that they

have virtually no competition, it has not given any incentives to distribution and transmission companies as they know they will suffer losses due to subsidies and that the state will bail them out in case of bankruptcy. Tata power was seeking at Rs 2.44 hike in tariff due to changes in rates in Indonesia from where it was getting the resource but it could not be done due to documentation, which had been at the time of starting of project.

With setting of price ceiling at P1, the output needed at quantity Q1 is so high that a natural monopolist is forced to make losses as ATC is above AR. Efficiency is achieved when AR = MC, but at this point, a natural monopolist makes losses.

Section 3.2: No Close Substitutes:

Energy can be generated by conventional sources (coal, water and nuclear fuels) and non-conventional sources (wind, solar, biomass, geothermal, tidal wave etc.). However the major chunk of power in India is generated by thermal power plants. See appendix 5 for figures

1. Thermal energy is the main contributor to total production:

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There is a shortage in generation in every energy segment and thus India is expanding the capacities mainly in coal, petroleum and natural gas. India is currently the number 3 importer of coal and its coal imports are rising every quarter, along with this India has substantial coal reserves majorly in the states of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. Thus given the high installed capacity of the thermal power stations it can be safely assumed that thermal power stations will be the major energy producers in the near future. Currently the total installed capacity is 155969 MW.

2. Nuclear Energy has a huge potential but there are roadblocks:

India sees a huge potential in nuclear power generation. According to the World Nuclear Association Information library, India aims to have a capacity of 14600 MW by the year 2020 and expects that 25% of energy generated by 2050 would be nuclear energy. This will go in a long way in satisfying the Energy need of the country. The cost of operation is lower as compared to thermal plants.

Though it has many advantages over thermal power generation, it is facing obstacles, which have affected the production in a big way. There have been mass protests in Jaitapur (Maharashtra), Koodanakulam (Tamil Nadu), Mithi Virdi (Gujrat) against setting up of nuclear power plants. This is majorly due to the belief that nuclear energy is dangerous and not safe for local population. Thus India is facing huge crises as far as this sector is concerned.

3. Hydro Electricity would grow at a good pace with less hurdles:

Hydropower generation in India stands at 17.39 % and Indian government and private sector companies are investing heavily in this sector. India has a high-untapped potential in this sector. India ranks 5th in terms of exploitable hydro energy potential and thus this sector will grow at a high rate in future.

As dams are built on major rivers, it causes floods on the land, which would have been used productively. Also large capacity power plants lead to pollution and damage of surrounding eco-system. If people safety and settlement issues along with environmental damage issues are handled in a right manner hydro-electricity will be a major source of electricity generation.

4. Other Renewable Energy sources:

The sector contributes 12.32% of the existing production. Wind, solar, geothermal, tidal energy are major contributors in this segment. The country’s solar and wind capacity has more than doubled in the last five years. India is making huge investments in this sector as there has been a constant thrust for clean energy. Under the 12th plan India has targeted 3 GW of annual installations. See appendix 4 (Page 19) for figures

Section 3.3 Economies of scale

When more units of a good or a service can be produced on a larger scale, but with (on average) less input costs, economies of scale (ES) are said to be achieved. This means that as a company grows and production units increase, a company will have a good chance to decrease its costs. One way to generate operational efficiency is by spreading fixed costs over a larger production base. Other ways include specialization of labor, reorganization of key processes, implementation of new technologies or the purchase of materials at bulk prices.

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Section 3.3.1: Scale Economies in Electric Power Generation

The technological characteristics of electrical power industry result in a tendency of decreasing average costs over the market. To meet the varied demand of power, individual utility has to make huge investment to meet the high capacity demand as well as the peak demand. Electrical utility operation is considered a natural monopoly because of the long-run decreasing cost over the extent of the market. The average costs would be lower for the larger firms than the smaller ones if operated at optimum rates. If other firms enter the market the fixed costs would wastefully get duplicated if the economies of scale exist. Therefore competing firms would be inefficient in presence of economies of scale.

Another factor for the potential economies of scale is the demand side. The peak demand requires the firms to maintain large capacities.For instance, let’s take a look into the financial data of NTPC Ltd. The PBIDT (Profit before interest depreciation and taxes) values have increased over the years, which suggest that the firm has to stay in the industry over a long period to bring down the operational cost and realize profits.

Looking into the capital invested by NTPC ltd. over the period of ten years from 2005-14, we can see that the capital invested by the firm over the period of 10 years in on the rise. Moreover, capital is in the range of 150000 Crores for the financial year 2013-14 which suggests that it is sustainable only for big players. Hence for new firms it is virtually impossible to enter the market by generating that amount of capital.

With continued economies of scale and technological gains in renewable resources of energy it be estimated that the average cost of production will decline in the coming years.

Section 4: Pricing Structure in Natural Monopoly and the need for government regulation and subsidies:

In a natural monopoly, ATC diminishes or declines over a much broader range of output

than a regular monopoly. In order for the firm to achieve less cost, it must produce greater

9788.9

10666.5

12964.9

14317

13720.2

15344.45

15962.86

16832.45

21908.4

20516.4

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PBIDT (Rs. In Crore)

59201.5

65156

73081.2

79829.2

91937.9

101906.33

114546.89

127332.93

142487.62

157987.24

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Capital Invested (Rs. In Crores)

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quantity. We can infer that the MC curve is also stretched out over a much greater range of output, and because of mathematical necessity, it cuts the ATC at its lowest point.

If more than one power firm provide electricity to the same area (see figure - Q1, Q2), then each firm would have high ATC (P1, P2). They would compete against each other and not one would be able to achieve economies of scale. So it would be actually better off if one firm producing electricity for the entire area. That monopolist ATC would be much lower than if the market were more competitive.

I. For profit maximization for the firm, MC=MR II. For socially optimal price, MC = D = MB (allocative efficient price)

III. Fair return price ATC = D

The electricity firm charges a much higher price than the socially optimal price. A monopolist tries to restrict its output and extract higher price from the customers. Hence the need arises for government to regulate the prices.

But due to high ATC, the firm won’t be able to earn great amount of economic profit. So this is a market that requires a government intervention, a combination of price control and subsidies, which can help achieve a more socially optimal output. Now if the government puts a price control and sets the price at Qso, then the firm would suffer an economic loss and would not be able to survive in the market. Hence the need arises for the subsidy.

The firm would never produce beyond Qrm, because beyond that MR is negative. So how could a government incentivize a firm to produce at the socially optimal level of Qso, where MB = MC?

Here a subsidy is needed. Profit maximization rule states that a firm will always produce where MC=MR. The government would give a subsidy to the firm that reduces the MC (downward shift

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of the marginal cost). A negative cost in effect is revenue to the firm. So the government would actually be paying for the production of output at the socially optimal price. The monopolist will now have an incentive to produce at the socially optimal price. Hence the price ceiling is now realistically met. This will also reduce the ATC (shown in the above figure) and it is then possible for the firm to realize an economic profit. This will also enable the power companies to sell the output at a much lower cost.

Subsidy cost to Government of India to state discoms:

I. FY 15: 3500 crore II. FY 16: 2500 crore

Section 5: Conclusions and Future Growth Strategy:

After doing an in-depth analysis of the market structure, we conclude that the power sector in India has the characteristics of a nature monopoly market.

Future Strategy: Our government needs to address the issue of innovations in the power sector. We need to bring foreign investments, not only related to infrastructure but also technological up-gradation so that the cost of production goes down.The issue of coal supply is so critical that an article in the India Today magazine on 13th June 2014 said that out of the 100 power plants watched over by the CEA, 38 had only a week’s supply of coal while 20 had between none to 4 days of coal supply remaining. To address the issues related to coal supply, a greater focus has to be put on the domestic supply and the dependence on imported coal has to be reduced. Manish Aggarwal, Head, Energy and Natural Resources, at KPMG in India said that there was an urgent need for a coal regulator in India. This will assist in deciding coal prices, grade testing, approving mining plans and closures. Also, the power distribution system has to be improved. Without ensuring a good distribution system, the surplus produced in one part of the country cannot be utilized for the power needs of another part of the country. There should also be greater focus on renewable sources of energy.

Section 6: Bibliography

1. 1. http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-02-10/news/47200990_1_power-ministry-power-plants-additional-gas

2. http://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/power-mining/energing_opportunities_and_challenges.pdf

3. http://powermin.nic.in/ 4. http://qz.com/225301/this-world-bank-report-about-indias-power-sector-has-

crisis-written-all-over-it/ 5. http://www.moneycontrol.com/stocks/marketinfo/netprofit/bse/power-

generationdistribution.html 6. http://staffwww.fullcoll.edu/fchan/Micro/4pure_monopoly.htm 7. http://www.mahagenco.in/index.php/generation 8. http://www.wbpdcl.co.in/o-m/performance/year-wise.html 9. http://www.pspcl.in/docs/installed_capacity__generation.htm 10. http://www.tangedco.gov.in/template1.php?tempno=&cid=0&subcid=184 11. http://www.phdcci.in/admin/admin_logged/banner_images/1374649649.pdf 12. https://www.bijlibachao.com/news/domestic-electricity-lt-tariff-slabs-and-

rates-for-all-states-in-india-in-2014.html

Section 7: Appendix:

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1. Figure for Power Sector – Generation – Transmission- Distribution.

2. Figure for Per Capita Power Consumption

3. Tariff rates

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State Condition Slab Low

Slab High

Rate (in Rs)

Andhra Pradesh (As per tariff order dated 30th March 2013. There is no change in 2014 yet)

Upto 50 units a month

1 50 1.45

More than 50 units a month

1 50 2.6

51 100 3.25

101 150 4.88

151 200 5.63

201 250 6.38

251 300 6.88

301 400 7.38

401 500 7.88

500 above 8.38

Arunachal Pradesh (As per tariff order dated 3rd June 2014)

1 above 4

Assam (As per tariff order dated 1st Dec 2013)

for connected load up to 5 KW

1 120 3.58

121 240 5.45

241 above 6.15

for connected load more than 5 KW

1 above 5.75

Bihar (As per tariff order dated 28th February 2014)

Single Phase with

connected load between 2 kW and 7

kW

1 100 2.85

& 101 200 3.5

Three Phase with

connected load more than 5 kW

201 300 4.2

301 above 5.3

Single Phase with

connected load less than

2 kW

1 50 2

51 100 2.3

101 above 2.7

Chattisgarh (As per tariff order dated 12th July 2013)

1 100 2.1

101 200 2.4

201 500 3.4

501 above 5.85

Goa (As per tariff order 1 60 1.2

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dated 15th April 2014) 61 250 1.7

251 500 2.75

501 above 3.2

Gujarat (As per tariff order dated 29th April 2014)

1 50 3.15

51 100 3.6

101 250 4.25

251 above 5.2

Gujarat-Torrent-Ahd (As per tariff order dated 29th April 2014)

1 50 3.2

51 200 3.9

201 above 4.8

Gujarat-Torrent-Surat (As per tariff order dated 29th April 2014)

1 50 3.2

51 100 3.65

101 250 4.25

251 above 4.95

Haryana (Applicable from 1st April 2013)

Total Consumption Less Than 100 units a month

0 40 2.98

41 100 4.75

Total Consumption Between 100 and 800 units a month

0 250 4.9

251 500 5.6

501 800 5.98

Total Consumption More Than 800 units a month

0 above 5.98

Himachal Pradesh (As

per tariff order dated

12th June 2014)

1 125 3.5

126 300 4.4

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301 above 4.7

Jammu and Kashmir (As per tariff order dated 25th April 2013)

1 100 1.54

101 200 2

201 400 3

401 above 3.2

Jharkhand (As per tariff order dated 1st Aug 2012)

for load upto 4 KW

1 200 2.4

201 above 2.9

for load more than 4 KW

1 above 3

Karnataka (As per tariff order approved on 12th May 2014)

1 30 2.7

31 100 4

101 200 5.25

201 above 6.25

Kerala (Applicable from 1st July 2012)

1 40 1.5

41 80 2.4

81 120 2.9

121 150 3.6

151 200 4.8

201 300 6

301 500 7.5

501 above 6.5 (all units)

Madhya Pradesh (As per tariff order dated 24th May 2014)

1 50 3.4

51 100 3.85

101 300 4.8

301 500 5.2

501 above 5.5

Maharashtra (Applicable from 1st Aug 2012)

1 100 3.36

101 300 6.05

301 500 7.92

501 1000 8.78

1001 above 9.5

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Mumbai-Reliance (Approved by MERC on 22nd Aug 2013)

Includes Regulatory Asset Charges

1 100 3.92

101 300 5.56

301 500 6.46

501 above 8.77

Mumbai-Tata (Multi Year Tariff approved by MERC on 28th June 2013)

For Direct Tata Power Consumers

1 100 2.49

101 300 4.13

301 500 7.31

501 above 9.09

Mumbai-Tata (Multi Year Tariff approved by MERC on 28th June 2013)

For consumers who changed over from Reliance Energy

1 100 2.38

101 300 4.45

301 500 8.57

501 above 12.64

Mumbai-BEST (As per tariff order dated 1st Sept 2013)

1 100 3.2

101 300 6.38

301 500 8.94

501 above 10.4

Manipur (As per tariff order dated 28th February 2014)

1 100 2.8

101 200 3.4

201 300 4.1

301 above 4.6

Meghalaya (As per tariff order dated 12th April 2014)

1 100 2.9

101 200 3.4

201 above 4.4

Mizoram (As per tariff order dated 28th February 2014)

1 50 2.1

51 100 3

101 200 3.8

201 above 4.5

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Nagaland (As per tariff order dated 19th December 2012)

1 30 3.1

31 100 4.15

101 250 4.75

251 above 5.5

Delhi (As per tariff order dated July 2013)

0 200 3.9

201 400 5.8

401 800 6.8

801 above 7

Odisha (As per tariff order dated 26th April 2014)

1 50 2.3

51 200 4

201 400 5

401 above 5.4

Punjab (As per tariff order dated 10th April 2013)

1 100 4.56

101 300 6.02

301 above 6.44

Rajasthan (As per tariff order dated 6th June 2013)

1 50 3

51 150 4.65

151 300 4.85

301 500 5.15

501 above 5.45

Sikkim (As per tariff order dated 22nd May 2012)

1 50 1.1

51 100 2.25

101 200 3.45

201 400 4.15

401 above 4.4

Tamil Nadu (Bimonthly Total

for units less than 100

1 100 1

Units) (As per tariff ordser dated 20th June

2013)

for units less than 200

1 200 1.5

for units less than 500

1 200 2

201 500 3

for units more than 500

1 200 3

201 500 4

501 above 5.75

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Tripura (As per tariff order dated 25th June 2013)

Single Phase Supply (less than 3 kW Connected load)

1 50 4.5

51 150 5.6

151 300 5.8

301 above 6.9

Three Phase Supply (more than 3 kW Connected load)

1 above 6.9

Uttar Pradesh (As per tariff order dated 31st May 2013)

1 200 4

201 500 4.5

501 above 5

Uttarakhand (As per tariff order dated 10th April 2014)

1 100 2.3

101 200 2.7

201 400 3.35

401 above 3.5

West Bengal (As per tariff order dated 26nd December 2013)

Quarterly Total Units

1 75 4.46

76 150 5.03

151 300 5.86

301 450 6.4

451 900 6.6

901 above 8.1

West Bengal-Kolkata- CESC (As per tariff order dated 26nd Dec 2013)

1 25 4.12

26 60 4.56

61 100 5.53

101 150 6.28

151 300 6.41

301 above 7.95

Chandigarh (As per tariff order dated 11th Apr 2014)

Monthly Units

1 150 2.3

151 400 4.2

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4.

5. % In different sources of energy

68.19

17.39

2.08 12.32 Thermal Energy

Hydro Energy

Nuclear Energy

Renewable Energy

401 above 4.4