Poverty: Good News or Bad News? According to Census Bureau figures, in 1990 13.1% of the U.S....
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Transcript of Poverty: Good News or Bad News? According to Census Bureau figures, in 1990 13.1% of the U.S....
• Poverty: Good News or Bad News? According to Census Bureau figures, in 1990 13.1% of the U.S. population lived in poverty, while only 12.4% of the population lived in poverty in 2000. Assume populations of 249 million and 281 million in 1990 and 2000, respectively. a. Did the actual number of people living in poverty increase or decrease between 1990 and 2000? Show your work.b. Is the news about poverty good or bad? Justify your answer.
Consumer Price Index
• Prices typically go up – inflation• Guess the price of a Hershey’s Bar in 1962…• Right…$0.05• Now?• Right … $1.00
Percentage increase in price of items from 1962 to 1998
ItemPercentage Increase in
Price
Hershey bar 1180%New York Times 1100%First class postage 700%Gasoline (gallon) 284%
Hamburger (McDonald's double) 861%
Chevrolet (full size) 790%Refrigerator freezer 60%
Some things regarding inflation
1. Compare other prices of the time2. Prices don’t go up consistently3. Consider better products
Most important… wage increases!
Index Numbers!!!
• Ratio of a quantity to its value at a base period.
• Base period = 100, easy % increases
Bread from 1980 to 1996
YearAverage Price of White
Bread per pound (US City Average)
1980 $0.511981 $0.531982 $0.531983 $0.541984 $0.541985 $0.551986 $0.561987 $0.551988 $0.611989 $0.671990 $0.691991 $0.711992 $0.751993 $0.751994 $0.761995 $0.791996 $0.88
White Bread Index
• Choose a base year and set the index to 100
Year
Average Price of White Bread per pound (US City Average)
White Bread Index (1980=100)
1980 $0.51 100
1981 $0.53
1982 $0.53
1983 $0.54
The ratio….The index
100
1981in Index
1980in Price
1981in Price
100
1981for Index
51.0$
53.0$
9.103100*.51
.53 1981for Index Bread White
Similarly for 1983
100
1983for Index
51.0$
54.0$
100
1983in Index
1980in Price
1983in Price
9.105100*.51
.54 1983for Index Bread White
Bread IndexYear Price Index
1980 0.51 100.001981 $0.53 103.921982 $0.53 103.921983 $0.54 105.881984 $0.54 105.881985 $0.55 107.841986 $0.56 109.801987 $0.55 107.841988 $0.61 119.611989 $0.67 131.371990 $0.69 135.291991 $0.71 139.221992 $0.75 147.061993 $0.75 147.061994 $0.76 149.021995 $0.79 154.901996 $0.88 172.55
What is the percentage change from 1980 to 1996?
Components of the CPI(U) Housing 41.4%Transportation 17.8%Food 16.2%Energy 8.2%Medical Care 6.4%Apparel and Upkeep 6.1%
Other 3.9%
Average Dollar PriceYear
CPI1982-84=100
1990 130.71991 136.21992 140.31993 144.51994 148.21995 152.41996 156.91997 160.51998 163.01999 166.62000 172.22001 177.12002 179.92003 184.02004 188.92005 195.32006 201.6
So if goods and services cost on average $130.70 in 1990 then goods and services cost $148.20 dollars in 1994
Ratio from year to year• If we wanted to find the ratio of the cost of goodsin 2003 to those in 1991:
YearCPI
1982-84=1001990 130.71991 136.21992 140.31993 144.51994 148.21995 152.41996 156.91997 160.51998 163.01999 166.62000 172.22001 177.12002 179.92003 184.02004 188.92005 195.32006 201.6
35.12.136
0.184
1991
2003
CPI
CPI
Constant Dollar
Let’s say in you’re Aunt tells you that in 1990 she was making $50,000. Let’s see what that translates tofor 2006 dollars…$130.70 in 1990 is equivalentto $201.60 in 2006.
YearCPI
1982-84=1001990 130.71991 136.21992 140.31993 144.51994 148.21995 152.41996 156.91997 160.51998 163.01999 166.62000 172.22001 177.12002 179.92003 184.02004 188.92005 195.32006 201.6
Constant Dollar YearCPI
1982-84=1001990 130.71991 136.21992 140.31993 144.51994 148.21995 152.41996 156.91997 160.51998 163.01999 166.62000 172.22001 177.12002 179.92003 184.02004 188.92005 195.32006 201.6
50,000
Salary 2006
7.130
6.201
Dollars 77,123 Salary 2006
If prices were 1.54 times as large in 2006 then multiply the initial wage by this value.
“Expensive”
• You can check to see if some good increased in price at the same rate as the bundle or at a slower or faster rate.
• For example, the price of gasoline in 1981 was $1.38 per gallon on average. In 2005, it averaged $2.30. Was gasoline more expensive or less expensive in 2005?
“Expensive”
• Need to take inflation into consideration. • Let’s convert one of the prices to the other year's constant dollars.
• Let’s convert the 1981 price of $1.38 to its equivalent in 2005 constant dollars.
priceCPI
CPI1981*
1981
2005
“Expensive”
• What this tells us is that $1.38 in 1981 was equivalent to $2.96 in 2005. $2.96 is the 1981 price in constant 2005 dollars.
priceCPI
CPI1981*
1981
2005
96.2$38.1$*9.90
3.195
“Expensive”
• Since $2.96 is more than the $2.30 that people were actually paying in 2005, gasoline was more expensive in 1981 than it was in 2005 after we account for inflation using constant dollars.
“Expensive”
• Compare the price of gas in 1990 which was $1.16 to the price of gas in 2000 which was $1.51. Again, nominally, the price in 2000 is larger than the price in 1990, but that is to be expected. When did it "feel" more expensive to buy gas? Convert the 1990 price to its 2000 constant dollar equivalent by multiplying the 1990 price by the ratio of the CPI values in 2000 and 1990:
“Expensive” YearCPI
1982-84=1001990 130.71991 136.21992 140.31993 144.51994 148.21995 152.41996 156.91997 160.51998 163.01999 166.62000 172.22001 177.12002 179.92003 184.02004 188.92005 195.32006 201.6
priceCPI
CPI1990*
1990
2000
53.116.1*7.130
2.172
Constant Dollar Price
DollarsConstant in Price Price) Old(*CPI Old
CPI New
DollarsConstant in Price Price) Old(*CPI Old
CPI New
Inflation Rate
• The inflation rate is defined as the percentage change in the CPIs from the previous year to the next. For example, the inflation rate in 1996 was