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  • 8/9/2019 Potrero Shuttle Plan Report


    Building a Residential-Based

    Community Shuttle Service


    Potrero Hill-Showplace Square

    Prepared for the Related Companies


    Silvani Transportation Consulting

    October, 2014

  • 8/9/2019 Potrero Shuttle Plan Report


    Building a Residential-Based Community Shuttle

    Page 1


    The neighborhoods in and surrounding Potrero/Showplace are growing. To the immediate south, Dogpatch,

    a traditional industrial neighborhood, will add more than 2,000 new units of housing; Mission Bay is

    building 1,200+ new units; and new neighborhoods are being built in East and West SOMAmost

    notably the eight towers which are part of the new Transbay Terminal development area, but also severalprojects in the 300-500 dwelling unit range. Two new major medical facilities will open on the eastern

    edge of Potrero, as will a major new sports and events complex.

    Several new residential units are also slated for construction in the Potrero Hill and Showplace Square

    neighborhoods in the next three to five years. While this is much-needed housing, new development will

    constrain the existing transportation infrastructure in long-established Potrero/Showplace neighborhoods.

    Creative new solutions will be required to keep pace with growing communities by both the public and

    private sectors.

    The population and increases in overall trips, coupled with emerging trends and values, have significant

    implications for how both new and current residents will get aroundboth within their immediatecommunity and beyond its environs. The new paradigm that access trumps ownership is championing the

    growth of many new shared economy industries, including the delivery of transportation services, as car

    ownership becomes less desirable and important among Millennials.

    The SFMTA has already designated some streets which run through the Potrero/Showplace districts to

    become transit-priority streets (such as 16thStreet); others will have new signalization; parking which was

    once relatively abundant and free, will be managed seven days a week. Traffic volumes are envisioned

    to increase, and levels of service will be impacted at many key intersections.

    The Potrero Hill Boosters Association has engaged residents and businesses in discussions about their

    transportation needs and concerns for nearly two years. These efforts have largely focused on how a

    community shuttle network might be part of the solution. In 2012, the community identified destinations itwould want a shuttle to serve. In 2013, a more comprehensive survey revealed specific trip patterns, times

    of day, and perceptions about various types of service. It was followed by a community workshop that

    began to illustrate what a community shuttle might look like and how it could be funded.

    This study is a follow-on to the previous work done and took the next steps of meeting with developers,

    businesses owners, community leaders and residents to determine their interest in participating in and

    helping fund a community shuttle. We conducted further research and updated projections and

    assumptions about the community and the area. We have refined a framework for both a community

    shuttle and a shopper shuttle, identifying possible routes and stops as well as partners.

    This report summarizes the updated and new information about the community; meetings with potential

    partners; and articulates the service planning principles which were used to construct the conceptual

    schedules which are presented. The report also outlines general budget, organizational development and

    management considerations in establishing a new shuttle service. Lastly, it describes how a variety of

    funding mechanisms and sources can collectively fund a community shuttle. The intent is to present an array

    of information and ideas that facilitate further discussion with the community about solutions a community

    shuttle can provide as Potrero Hill and Showplace Square prepare for the future.

  • 8/9/2019 Potrero Shuttle Plan Report


    Building a Residential-Based Community Shuttle

    Page 2

    EASTERN NEIGHBORHOODS UPDATE:Population, Employment, Trip Patterns and Circulation

    Recap of Key Findings from EN Trips Plan

    The Eastern Neighborhoods Plan (referred to in this report as EN Trips) was published in 2012 and

    provided an overview of the areas projected growth. The Eastern Neighborhoods is broadly defined as

    the area bounded by the Embarcadero on the northern edge; Cesar Chavez to the south; Market Street to

    the west; and the waterfront on the east. Within this geographic area are several distinct neighborhoods:

    East SOMA, West SOMA, Showplace Square, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, and the Central

    Waterfront/Pier 70.

    By 2035, the population in the EN Trips area is estimated to increase by 33%. Mission Bay and the

    Central Waterfront will become major new employment centers, with over 25,000 and 15,000 jobs,

    respectively. Potrero-Showplace will add some 3,000 new jobs and 23,000 new trips. Overall, the EN

    area will see a 50% increase in jobs, according to the EN Plan.

    The report assumed Showplace Square/Potrero would retain its residential character, with new housing

    along the 16th-17thStreet mixed use corridors and a small amount of new office and retail in Showplace

    Square. No new housing was slated for Showplace Square.

    EN Trips predicted that a third of all trips made would stay within the Eastern Neighborhoods. Some 48%

    of these internal trips are allocated to SOMA and 25% to Mission Bay and the Central Waterfront,

    making these major new destinations. The 320,000 daily trips projected in the EN area break down as

    shown below:

    Daily Trip Projections for the Eastern Neighborhoods

    Number of Trips Destination

    320,000 Total trips in Eastern Neighborhoods area


    Trips That Will Take Place Totally Within EN boundariesSOMAMission Bay/Central Waterfront


    Non San FranciscoEast BaySouth Bay

    46,000 Downtown San Francisco

    50,000 Candlestick Point/ Hunters Point

    15,000 Chinatown/North Beach

    According to the report, private vehicles currently account for 50% of all trips. Transits current mode

    share is 19%. Walking was calculated at 16%; bicycling and carpooling each had a 5% modal share.

    Only a negligible 3% shift is projected from private motor vehicles to transit long-term.

    Vehicular volume is slated to increase by 15% or more on all North-South and East-West corridors

    between Third and 16thStreets; and Market and Potrero.

  • 8/9/2019 Potrero Shuttle Plan Report


    Building a Residential-Based Community Shuttle

    Page 3

    According to recent studies conducted by the City, over time, Level of Service (LOS), which measures

    delays at major intersections, is expected to worsen at several key intersections causing major delays for

    both transit and private vehicles. This will impact internal and external trips in the area as some of these

    intersections are at entries or in the heart of Potrero/Showplace.

    Transit trips, in order of destination with the highest increased demand are projected as follows:

    East Bay



    North Beach/Chinatown

    Western Market

    Altogether, this geographic area is the fastest growing in San Francisco for both jobs (80,000 jobs

    projected) and residents.

    Updating the Eastern Neighborhoods Plan

    Since the EN Trips study was completed, several other projects have been proposed which will further

    increase the number of trips made to, from and within the area. These include:

    Kaiser Medical Office at Mission Bay

    UCSF application for additional entitlement of at Mission Bay and more housing units

    Giants- Mission Rock development

    Warriors Arena & Event Center Complex

    New residential developments of including the Concourse and Henry Adams projects

    An increase of public housing units in the Potrero Annex & Terraces rebuild project

    Other developments since the EN Trips Plan was published are also sparking interest in cooperative

    transportation programs and services. The recent adoption of AB1339, the Bay Area Commuter Benefit

    regulation requiring employers with 50+ employees to provide commuter information, financial assistance,

    or provide services such as shuttles, is a significant development that may change the landscape of both

    first and last mile as well as regional transportation.

    The adoption of managed parking throughout the Eastern Neighborhoodsnew meters with dynamic

    pricing that operate until 10pm or later, weekdays and weekendsis another recent development which

    will encourage greater numbers to utilize alternative modes of transport for all types of trips.

  • 8/9/2019 Potrero Shuttle Plan Report


    Building a Residential-Based Community Shuttle

    Page 4

    Recap of Census-Concord Group Findings

    According to the Concord Group:

    Approximately two thirds of all Potrero Hill residents also work in San Francisco

    Of the 2928 residents who work in San Francisco, 731 (25%) work in Mission Bay, East or West

    SOMA; 537 in Central Market and downtown; but 1670 (57%) work in other San Franciscodistricts.

    Approximately 50% of Potrero Hill residents work in non-central (downtown) locations

    Compared to adjacent areas, Potrero Hill residents h