PotashCorp - 2012 Q4 & Year-End Earnings
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Transcript of PotashCorp - 2012 Q4 & Year-End Earnings
PotashCorp.com
Q4 2012 Conference CallJanuary 31, 2013
Slide#2
This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world, timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Forward-looking Statements
Slide#3
Fourth-Quarter 2012 Highlights
• Earnings of $0.48 per share1; trailing the $0.78 per share earned in 2011
• Cash provided by operating activities of $0.9 billion
• Gross margin of $0.6 billion; below the $0.9 billion earned last year
• Contributions from offshore investments of $94 million
• Market value of investments $9.1 billion, or $10 per PotashCorp share2
1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 As of market close on January 30, 2013
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#4
Full-Year 2012 Highlights
• Earnings of $2.37 per share1; trailing the $3.51 per share earned in 2011
• Non-cash impairment charge of $0.39 per share for investment in Sinofert
• Cash provided by operating activities of $3.2 billion, second highest in history
• Gross margin of $3.4 billion; below the $4.3 billion generated last year
• Record nitrogen gross margin of $1.0 billion
• Contributions from strategic investments of $412 million2, a new record
2 Does not include $341 million impairment charge related to our investment in Sinofert Holdings Limited (Sinofert) in China
1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#5
Gross Margin Declines on Weaker Results in All Three Nutrients
Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison
Potash Highlights:• Relatively strong North American sales volumes offset
by decline in offshore demand• Realized prices lower on offshore weakness• Higher costs due to lower production, facility mix and
increased Esterhazy costs
Phosphate Highlights:• Weaker prices for fertilizer products• Slightly lower sales volume due to production
constraints
Nitrogen Highlights:• Strong agricultural and industrial demand supported
higher ammonia prices• Relatively flat sales volumes
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#6
Gross Margin Declines on Weaker Results in Potash and Phosphate
Annual Gross Margin Comparison
Potash Highlights:• Decline in sales volumes on weaker Indian demand
and global customer inventory destocking• Relatively flat realizations; price declines offset by
increased sales to higher-netback regions• Higher costs due to lower production, facility mix,
higher depreciation and increased Esterhazy costs
Phosphate Highlights:• Weaker prices for fertilizer products• Reduced sales volumes due to production constraints
Nitrogen Highlights:• Strong demand supported higher prices for all
products • Slightly reduced sales volumes due to constrained
Trinidad production
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#7
Second-Best Cash Flow Year on Record
Annual Cash Provided by Operating Activities*
US$ Millions
Source: PotashCorp
* As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010 ; 2003 to 2009 information is presented on a previous Canadian generally accepted accounting principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, information for 2007 to 2009 may not be comparable to 2010 and 2011
Slide#8
US$ Millions
Major Potash Expansion Program More Than 80 Percent Complete
PotashCorp Capital Spending*
Source: PotashCorp
* Excluding capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance
Slide#9
Dividend More Than Eight-Times Higher Than Beginning of 2011
PotashCorp Dividend Per Share*
US$ Per Share
* Dividends declared each quarter** $0.10 per share dividend adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent.
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#10
2013F refers to the 2013/14 crop year. Consumption forecast based on historical trend line growth.
Million Tonnes
World Grain and Oilseed Supply/DemandNeed For Historically Large Production Increase to Avoid Further Shortfall
Source: USDA, PotashCorp
2013 Production Growth Rate Scenarios
6% (~ 3X Historical Growth Rate)
4% (~ 2X Historical Growth Rate)
Slide#11
Price Index (2005 Average = 100)
Crop and Fertilizer Price RelationshipAffordability of Fertilizer Makes Farmer Returns Even More Compelling
Source: Bloomberg, PotashCorp
* Based on corn, soybean and wheat prices (weighted by global consumption)
** Based on urea, DAP and KCl prices (weighted by global consumption)
Slide#12
Source: Fertecon, IFA, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
Significant Global Distributor Inventory Destocking Occurred in 2012
World Potash Shipments and Consumption
Slide#13
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
World Potash DemandReduced Destocking and Increased Demand Expected to Drive 2013 Shipments
Market 2012E 2013F
China 10.6 11-11.5
India 3.5 3.5-4.5
Other Asia 7.5 ~8.5
North America 7.9 ~9.5
Latin America 9.5 ~10.0
Other 12.0 ~12.5
Total 51.0 55-57
Estimated Shipments by Market* (million tonnes)
* Estimates per PotashCorp
Slide#14
Source: PotashCorp
Ammonia Capacity
Benefiting from Ammonia; New Capacity Adds Margin Potential
PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile
2012 Nitrogen Product Mix (Volume)Million Tonnes
Slide#15
Source: PotashCorp, Company Filings
PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price
Exposure to Industrial and Feed Products Providing Greater Stability
PotashCorp Phosphate Profile
2012 Phosphate Product Mix (Volume)
US$/tonne
* Mosaic’s percentage based on last four fiscal quarter’s feed sales volume relative to total phosphate sales volume as publicly disclosed.
Slide#16
2013 Guidance*
Full Year
• Earnings per share: $2.75-$3.25 (Q1 $0.50-$0.65)
• Potash gross margin: $1.9-$2.4 billion
• Potash shipments: 8.5-9.2 million tonnes
• Phosphate and nitrogen gross margin: $1.5-$1.7 billion
* Guidance as at January 31, 2013
Source: PotashCorp
Slide#17
2013 Guidance*
Full Year
• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.5 billion
• Annual effective tax rate: 25-27 percent
• Provincial mining and other taxes: 11-13 percent of total potash gross margin
• Other income: $320-$380 million
• Selling and administrative expenses: $240-$260 million
• Finance costs: $100-130 million
* Guidance as at January 31, 2013
** Does not include capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance
Source: PotashCorp
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