Postharvest Loss Prevention, Postharvest Loss Prevention, ICT, and Innovation in MeasurementICT, and Innovation in Measurement

Steve Sonka, DirectorSteve Sonka, Director

May 21, 2013May 21, 2013

AGENDAAGENDA

• Future food security challenges

• Several “views” of postharvest loss

• The ADM Institute – Themes– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss– Innovation in measurement

Global Food Demand Is Predicted to Increase Global Food Demand Is Predicted to Increase 70% by 2050 70% by 2050 (FAO; 2009)

Per capita food consumption

Global Crop Demand Is Estimated to Double Global Crop Demand Is Estimated to Double From 2005 to 2050 From 2005 to 2050 (NAS; 2011)

2030 Food Demands Require 2030 Food Demands Require About 200 Million More Hectares About 200 Million More Hectares (McKinsey; 2011)

Commodity Price Changes Commodity Price Changes Tell Interesting Story Tell Interesting Story (McKinsey; 2011)

AGENDAAGENDA

• Future food security challenges

• Several “views” of postharvest loss

• The ADM Institute – Themes– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss– Innovation in measurement

X

PHL Varies by Region PHL Varies by Region (FAO; 2011)

Kgper year

Per capita food waste and food loss (Kg/year)

DATA!

PHL Varies by Commodity PHL Varies by Commodity (FAO; 2011)

PHL Varies Across Growing ConditionsPHL Varies Across Growing Conditions(IBRD/WB; 2011)

PHL Varies Between Countries:PHL Varies Between Countries:For Same Crop For Same Crop (FAO; 2002)

PHL Varies Between States PHL Varies Between States Within One Country Within One Country (ADM Institute; 2012)

A More Specific Perspective:A More Specific Perspective:Rice in SE Asia Rice in SE Asia (IRRI; 2011)

ConsumptionCrop

In SE Asia, physical losses range from 15-25%.

Quality losses range from 10-30% (loss in value)

Reducing PHL and Increasing YieldsReducing PHL and Increasing YieldsHave High Potential Have High Potential (McKinsey; 2011)

Little Attention Is Devoted Little Attention Is Devoted to PHL and Yields to PHL and Yields (McKinsey; 2011)

Why Reduce Postharvest Loss?Why Reduce Postharvest Loss?Some HypothesesSome Hypotheses

• Estimates suggest 1/3 of agricultural production is “wasted” and doesn’t reach food consumer

• Investment required to reduce PHL could be modest

• Technology advances should make reduction more feasible and less expensive

• Arable land, water, energy are in limited supply – reducing PHL can lessen pressure on scarce resources

AGENDAAGENDA

• Future food security challenges

• Several “views” of postharvest loss

• The ADM Institute – Themes– Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss– Innovation in measurement

X

X

Timeline of the ADM InstituteTimeline of the ADM Institute

Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops

Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops

2011

Vision StatementVision Statement

Key elements include:

• To be an international information and technology hub

• To encompass technologies, practices and systems

• To focus on staple crops in key agricultural domains

The ADM InstituteThe ADM Institute

Timeline of the ADM InstituteTimeline of the ADM Institute

Awareness & Collaboration•$2.5 million in funding allocated

Awareness & Collaboration•$2.5 million in funding allocated

2012Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops

Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops

2011

Four ThemesFour Themes

Scientific Animations Without Borders (SAWBO)Scientific Animations Without Borders (SAWBO)

• Uses animations to disseminate information, particularly for low-literate populations– Images and audio to

make information easily understood

– Dissemination and access through internet, cell phones and tablets

Timeline of the ADM InstituteTimeline of the ADM Institute

2013

Awareness & Collaboration•$2.5 million in funding allocated

Awareness & Collaboration•$2.5 million in funding allocated

2012Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops

Official Announcement•$10 million gift•India/Brazil emphasis•Staple crops

2011

Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss

Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest LossSustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss

ReducedLoss (%)

Value$s

CurrentSetting

D

SCost of Reduction

Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest LossSustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss

100 % Reduction

1/3rd of production

is lost

Unsustainable Gap

ReducedLoss (%)

Value$s

CurrentSetting

SCost of Reduction

Sustainable Prevention of Postharvest LossSustainable Prevention of Postharvest Loss

100 % Reduction

DD1Enhanced Quality

S1

Sustainable Gain

Measurement !!!!!

MeasurementMeasurement

“What's measured improves” – Peter F. Drucker

"Measurement is the first step that leads to control and eventually to improvement. If you can't measure something, you can't understand it. If you can't understand it, you can't control it. If you can't control it, you can't improve it." – H. James Harrington

"What gets measured gets done, what gets measured and fed back gets done well, what gets rewarded gets repeated.“ – John E. Jones

Innovation in MeasurementInnovation in Measurement

• Actual loss in specific local settings• Interventions to reduce loss• Effectiveness of interventions over time

• Actual loss in specific local settings• Interventions to reduce loss• Effectiveness of interventions over time

What to Measure

• Low cost• Systemic• ICT enabled

but probably for non PHL reasons

• Low cost• Systemic• ICT enabled

but probably for non PHL reasons

How to Measure

““Practice” to DatePractice” to Date

• Identify problem

• Quantify (measure/estimate) losses

• Identify causes

• Propose technical solutions

• Fund project to implement solutions

Move to next project

Systems as Events/Patterns/StructureSystems as Events/Patterns/Structure

Patterns

Structure

The visible outcomesEvents

Changes over time

Determines patterns

ExplicitTacit

Observation Documentation

AnalysisImplementation

Knowledge-Creating SystemsKnowledge-Creating Systems

Exploit the Most Versatile SensorExploit the Most Versatile Sensor

Phone Penetration StatisticsPhone Penetration Statistics

6.7 Billion mobile phones world-wide at the end of 2012

India in 2012• 925 million mobile phone subscribers• 75% of the population • #2 Global Market (after China)

Brazil in 2012• 259 million mobile phone subscribers• 130% of the population• #5 Global Market (after China, India, US, and Indonesia)

Nigeria in 2012• 107 million mobile phone subscribers• 65% of the population• #10 Global Market

Just under half of the population in India (i.e., more than

500 million people) use text messages on a regular basis

Tweets on Price of Rice Tweets on Price of Rice (UN Global Pulse and Crime Hexagon; 2011)

Price of Bread in Uruguay Price of Bread in Uruguay (UN Global Pulse and PriceStats, 2011)

Example: Looking to Re-fuel after SandyExample: Looking to Re-fuel after Sandy

Dataset Hurricane Sandy

Time duration 14 days (Nov.2-15, 2012)

Locations 16 cities in East Coasts

# of users tweeted 7,583

# of tweets 12,931

# of users crawled in social network 704,941

# of follower-followee links 37,597

Top tweets selected for annotation 140

Address Source DependencyAddress Source Dependency

37Finding Gas in NYC after Hurricane Sandy

Social network helps !U

ncon

firm

ed t

wee

ts

Community Knowledge Worker Community Knowledge Worker (Grameen Foundation, 2010)

• Grameen Foundation is implementing an information network, Community Knowledge Worker (CKW), in Uganda, using mobile technology to delivery information to and from farmers.

• CKW: an ICT enabled agricultural extension worker

• Information to farmers:– Market price: 42 commodities in 20 districts

– Weather information: Up to 3 days in advance

– Farming best practices

– Supplier directory

– Market platform: link buyers and sellers

• Mobile survey-based collection of farm data– Raw data

– Analyses

– GIS data

For sound medium and long term planning, what do we need to know?

Location specific, timely and accurate information on rice production, supplies, and trends

In particular:

•What is the harvested area?

•When will it be harvested?

•What is the yield?

A combination of remote sensing and crop yield modeling can

provide this information under certain conditions

IRRI’s Approach on MeasurementIRRI’s Approach on Measurement

Optical Radar

Concept of RIICE Concept of RIICE (RIICE; 2011)

cyancyan late Dec to early Janblueblue mid-Jan redred & greengreen still under land preparation in mid-Jan

Color shows crop establishment

• planting dates• rice area estimates• crop status & yield estimates• crop damage estimates• crop insurance

Sentinel 1A & B satellitesGlobal coverage every 6 days 20-m resolutionFree

Global rice monitoring and forecasting system:Global rice monitoring and forecasting system:Radar-based real time crop monitoring system for riceRadar-based real time crop monitoring system for rice

Open DataOpen Data

DefinitionDefinition

“Open data is often referred to as the concept that information should be freely available to the public, without restriction or charge for its use by others. In the food and agricultural realm, open data is an essential piece of finding the answers we’ll need to feed the world.” (USDA, 2013)

ActionsActions• Launched The Food, Agriculture, and Rural “data community”

on Data.gov• The Millennium Challenge Corporation released an open

evaluation data catalog• Launched USAID.gov/Developer

Closing CommentsClosing Comments

• Society’s future food security – daunting but done before

• Sustainable prevention of postharvest loss has potential to contribute to the challenge

• Substantial progress unlikely without innovation in measurement– Low cost– Systemic– ICT enabled

Email: ssonka@illinois.eduEmail: ssonka@illinois.edu

Website: http://postharvestinstitute.illinois.eduWebsite: http://postharvestinstitute.illinois.edu