Post-2006 Republican Election Overview November 24, 2006.
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Transcript of Post-2006 Republican Election Overview November 24, 2006.
Post-2006 Republican Election Overview
November 24, 2006
GOP faced Major Hurdles
• 42% Bush job approval, 41% Right Track, 33% Congressional job approval
• Historical trends: 31 House, 6 Senate• GOP Senate races outspent by $12m in
Sept/Oct• 45 uncontested Dem seats vs. 10 GOP• War on Terror/Iraq• And…
…Scandals and Late Campaigns!
• 23 House seats and 3 Senate seats touched by scandal
• More than a dozen House seats “caught napping”
The 2006 Vote
• 76million ballots cast – or 40.4% of VAP– Democrats – 39,556,886 or 52%– GOP – 34,776,371 or 48%
Historic Election for Democrats
• Gain 29 House/6 Senate seats• Gain 322 State legislative seats,
including control of 3 states not controlled since 1966
• Largest number of GOP incumbent Senators defeated since 1986
Good News for GOP
• Ohio – Control all State Supreme Court seats and State Auditor
• Florida – 1st consecutive GOP governors since 1870
• Gained state office holders seats in Wisconsin, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana
• Gained state legislative seats in 10 states
• Decreased registration advantage by 414k in states that register by party
What the Election was…and wasn’t
• Not a repudiation of conservative philosophy
• Not a validation of Democrat agenda
• But it was…a THUMPING– Voters punished Republican
candidates
Did GOP Lose Base Voter in 2006?
• GOP were 36% of voters– 37% in ’04; 40% in ’02; 35% in ’00
• Conservative were 32% of voters– 34% in ’04; 34% in ’02; 29% in ’00
• Candidates gained 91% of GOP vote– 93% in ’04; 92% in ’02; 91% in ’00
• Candidates gained 78% of Cons. Vote– 84% in ’04; 79% in ’02; 81% in 00
Republican National Committee Voter
Program
“Republican efforts made the contest for the Senate closer and likely enabled the Republicans to hold at least 10 seats in the House”James Carville and Stan Greenberg
GOP Ground Game Worked
• 23 House races won by less than 2%Or…
19 races won by less than 5000 votesAnd…
GOP won 13 of those races • A shift of 30,000 votes would mean 6
more GOP seats…out of 76million votes
Why Microtargeting?
In 2000…• 20.6m voters in solid GOP precincts
– 13% of all registered voters
• 26.1m voters in solid Democrat precincts– 16% of all registered voters
• Democrats had 5.5m voters advantage – 3% of all registered voters
What is Microtargeting
• Build National Party voter file– Party registration, vote history,
volunteer and community lists
• Cross with Commercial Marketing lists– Lifestyle traits, consumer behavior
• Overlay with Vote and Issue Survey
MicroTargeting Identifies
• More voters for TURNOUT• Voters on issues for PERSUASION• New voters for REGISTRATION• Target voters for ACTIVATION• And will focus RESOURCES
2008 – Win House with White House
61 Democrat seats won by Bush in 2004
194
214
201
182
134
61
41
38
46
21
8
18
28
40
89
171
162
168
167
191
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
GOP/ GOP GOP/ Dem Dem/ GOP Dem/ Dem