Positioning Asia for the Future - Petrochemicals Asia : APIC - Singapore/CMAI...“BioFuels”...

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2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar 2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar Singapore Singapore Shanghai Shanghai Houston Houston New York New York London London Düsseldorf Düsseldorf Dubai Dubai Singapore Singapore Shanghai Shanghai Houston Houston New York New York London London Düsseldorf Düsseldorf Dubai Dubai World Petrochemical Markets – Positioning Asia for the Future World Petrochemical Markets World Petrochemical Markets Positioning Asia for the Future Positioning Asia for the Future Gary Adams Gary Adams President President [email protected] [email protected] APIC Marketing Seminar by CMAI APIC Marketing Seminar by CMAI Singapore, May 27, 2008 Singapore, May 27, 2008 Last year’s APIC presentations revealed that an extended and healthy period of up-cycle performance in chemicals, plastics and fibers markets had reached and in some cases, surpassed maturity. Concern is spreading regarding these markets facing downward trends and losing the ability to generate quality earnings despite reasonably high production rates. Rising costs associated with hyper energy values are forcing prices higher and negatively impacting earnings all through the value chain. Oil markets hover above $100 per barrel, adding to price pressures and inhibiting, perhaps stopping, consumer demand growth. As expected, dramatic changes have continued to occur in global chemical markets. Some products have seen tight market conditions evaporate, reducing or eliminating earnings. Others are on the verge of experiencing the challenges over-supply will present, even though some of the new capacity has been delayed. CMAI’s latest analysis of future supply/demand dynamics reveals that cumulative surpluses continue to grow, signaling the onset of an over-supplied market, which will influence all value chains. Strategies must incorporate the return of these markets, once again, to oversupplied conditions. Global EBITs for basic chemicals and plastics have peaked with 2008 marking a transition year into the upcoming downturn. Integrated segment contributions will vary as chains approach cyclic low earnings levels. The risks to these forecasts and assumptions that make these results possible will be the focus of this year’s CMAI presentations.

Transcript of Positioning Asia for the Future - Petrochemicals Asia : APIC - Singapore/CMAI...“BioFuels”...

Page 1: Positioning Asia for the Future - Petrochemicals Asia : APIC - Singapore/CMAI...“BioFuels” mandate has numerous leverage points for petchems as refiners adjust operations… 94

2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar2008 APIC – CMAI SeminarSingaporeSingapore ShanghaiShanghai HoustonHouston New YorkNew York LondonLondon DüsseldorfDüsseldorf DubaiDubaiSingaporeSingapore ShanghaiShanghai HoustonHouston New YorkNew York LondonLondon DüsseldorfDüsseldorf DubaiDubai

World Petrochemical Markets –Positioning Asia for the FutureWorld Petrochemical Markets World Petrochemical Markets ––Positioning Asia for the FuturePositioning Asia for the Future

Gary AdamsGary AdamsPresident President

[email protected]@cmaiglobal.com

APIC Marketing Seminar by CMAIAPIC Marketing Seminar by CMAISingapore, May 27, 2008Singapore, May 27, 2008

Last year’s APIC presentations revealed that an extended and healthy period of up-cycle performance in chemicals, plastics and fibers markets had reached and in some cases, surpassed maturity. Concern is spreading regarding these markets facing downward trends and losing the ability to generate quality earnings despite reasonably high production rates. Rising costs associated with hyper energy values are forcing prices higher and negatively impacting earnings all through the value chain. Oil markets hover above $100 per barrel, adding to price pressures and inhibiting, perhaps stopping, consumer demand growth. As expected, dramatic changes have continued to occur in global chemical markets. Some products have seen tight market conditions evaporate, reducing or eliminating earnings. Others are on the verge of experiencing the challenges over-supply will present, even though some of the new capacity has been delayed. CMAI’s latest analysis of future supply/demand dynamics reveals that cumulative surpluses continue to grow, signaling the onset of an over-supplied market, which will influence all value chains. Strategies must incorporate the return of these markets, once again, to oversupplied conditions. Global EBITs for basic chemicals and plastics have peaked with 2008 marking a transition year into the upcoming downturn. Integrated segment contributions will vary as chains approach cyclic low earnings levels. The risks to these forecasts and assumptions that make these results possible will be the focus of this year’s CMAI presentations.

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Defining Market Conditions Through The TroughDefining Market Conditions Through The Trough

Determining Product Segment DifferencesDetermining Product Segment Differences

Predicting Value Chain ProfitabilityPredicting Value Chain Profitability

Positioning Your Business For The Next UpturnPositioning Your Business For The Next Upturn

……Significant Change In Global Markets Underway. Significant Change In Global Markets Underway. Shift Focus to Leveraging Resulting Opportunities!Shift Focus to Leveraging Resulting Opportunities!

Use APIC’s Conference toAugment Your Efforts Regarding…

Use Use APICAPIC’’ss Conference toConference toAugment Your Efforts RegardingAugment Your Efforts Regarding……

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Our Location: Somewhat Late in Up-Cycle Economy & Energy

Our Location: Somewhat Late in UpOur Location: Somewhat Late in Up--Cycle Cycle Economy & EnergyEconomy & Energy

Economy performed quite well for last five years (despite energyEconomy performed quite well for last five years (despite energy values)values)Recovery phase is well over ~ ability to sustain economic growtRecovery phase is well over ~ ability to sustain economic growth now h now depends heavily on emerging economiesdepends heavily on emerging economies

Energy markets have struggled to hold supply at reliable levels Energy markets have struggled to hold supply at reliable levels -- signs of signs of slightly improved oil balance appearingslightly improved oil balance appearing

But high energy prices continue as long as economy remains suppoBut high energy prices continue as long as economy remains supportivertive

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Industry enjoyed an extended period of Industry enjoyed an extended period of healthy earnings healthy earnings (despite high costs)(despite high costs)

Producers anxiousProducers anxious to maintain (regain) to maintain (regain) upup--cycle quality marginscycle quality margins

Significant new capacity on the horizon Significant new capacity on the horizon –– questions abound about near term questions abound about near term

reliability of the newer producersreliability of the newer producers

Just a matter of time before industry Just a matter of time before industry enters overenters over--supply and supply and ““competitive competitive devaluationdevaluation”” periodperiod

High prices and low margins ahead ~ High prices and low margins ahead ~ unwelcome news for whole value chainunwelcome news for whole value chain

Our Location: Somewhat Late in Up-Cycle Chemicals Sector

Our Location: Somewhat Late in UpOur Location: Somewhat Late in Up--Cycle Cycle Chemicals SectorChemicals Sector

Excess CapacityExcess Excess

CapacityCapacity

Weakness in Pricing

Power

Weakness Weakness in Pricing in Pricing

PowerPower

InvestmentInvestmentInvestment

Competitive DevaluationCompetitive Competitive DevaluationDevaluation

Consolidation& Closures

ConsolidationConsolidation& Closures& Closures

Pricing Power Returns

Pricing Power Pricing Power ReturnsReturns

Over-Investment

OverOver--InvestmentInvestment

Economic Cycle

Economic Cycle

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2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar

Many influences are at play and a diversity of outcomes are certainly possible…

Many influences are at play and a diversity of outcomes are certainly possible…

We have perhaps unwittingly worried about possible We have perhaps unwittingly worried about possible market influences that will lead to an oftenmarket influences that will lead to an often--predicted, predicted, rapid and debilitating decline in the rapid and debilitating decline in the Old WorldOld World(Europe & America)(Europe & America) industriesindustries……

……some of these fears simply are unfounded.some of these fears simply are unfounded.

Nonetheless, the shape of a cyclic downturn is Nonetheless, the shape of a cyclic downturn is taking form and prudent managers are intensifying taking form and prudent managers are intensifying efforts to leverage the reality of a efforts to leverage the reality of a New WorldNew World order order and its influence on the global marketsand its influence on the global markets……

……this is where we recommend you focus. this is where we recommend you focus.

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Rising Crude Oil prices will Rising Crude Oil prices will quickly lead to widespread quickly lead to widespread economic decline, conservation economic decline, conservation and overand over--supplysupply……Pace of demand growth has Pace of demand growth has moderated but not disappeared. moderated but not disappeared. Spare capacity for attractive Spare capacity for attractive crude oils still some years offcrude oils still some years off……

Relatively high energy prices are Relatively high energy prices are here to stay (cost and market)here to stay (cost and market)……

Focus Here…Focus HereFocus Here……

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-0.5-0.50.00.00.50.51.01.01.51.52.02.02.52.53.03.03.53.54.04.04.54.55.05.0

0000 0101 0202 0303 0404 0505 0606 0707 0808 0909 1010-0.5-0.50.00.00.50.51.01.01.51.52.02.02.52.53.03.03.53.54.04.04.54.55.05.0OECD Europe

North AmericaRest of the World

Global GDP Growth (%)Oil Demand Growth Million Bbl per Day

Oil Demand Growth vs. GDP Growth

Majority of oil demand growth is occurring in Majority of oil demand growth is occurring in developing economiesdeveloping economies……

Oil Demand Source: Purvin & GertzOil Demand Source: Purvin & Gertz

Annual growth in oil demand is tied to growth in the economy

Very strong growth in 2004 followed years of lower growth, causing the transition to today’s pricing structure

Developing countries are responsible for most of the current and future oil demand growth

Annual growth in oil demand is tied to growth in the economy

Very strong growth in 2004 followed years of lower growth, causing the transition to today’s pricing structure

Developing countries are responsible for most of the current and future oil demand growthHigh replacement costs and a broadening of the global economy limit downside opportunity.

High replacement costs and a broadening of the global economy limit downside opportunity.

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Crude Oil Prices Will Stay High!Crude Oil Prices Will Stay High!

19981998 20002000 20022002 20042004 20062006 20082008 20102010 2012201200

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100

120120

140140Dollars Per BarrelDollars Per Barrel

Brent (New)Brent (New)Brent (Old)Brent (Old)

Source: Source: PurvinPurvin & & GertzGertz

ForecastForecast

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Economic expansions donEconomic expansions don’’t t just die, they get just die, they get ““murderedmurdered””by Central Bankersby Central Bankers……

Generally, Central Bankers have Generally, Central Bankers have become much more aggressive become much more aggressive in lowering interest rates...in lowering interest rates...

““WalWal--MartMart”” and productivity and productivity gains holding down inflationgains holding down inflation……

Focus Here…Focus HereFocus Here……

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2008-2011 2.2% – 2.8%

Global GDP Growth

2008-2011 2.2% – 2.8%

Global GDP Growth

A slowdown in Global Growth is certain; impact A slowdown in Global Growth is certain; impact somewhat mitigated by emerging consumerssomewhat mitigated by emerging consumers……

Positive FactorsPositive FactorsPositive FactorsMonetary Policy

Corporate Profits

Fiscal Policies

Consumer Spending

“China”

Emerging Economies

High Productivity

Oil $ Re-Investment

High Energy PricesHigh Energy Prices

Credit CrunchCredit Crunch

Government DeficitsGovernment Deficits

OverOver--zealous Lendingzealous Lending

Consumer IndebtednessConsumer Indebtedness

Currency DisparityCurrency Disparity

Geopolitical InstabilityGeopolitical Instability

Threatening InflationThreatening Inflation

The RisksThe RisksThe Risks

60% Case60% Case

Global GDP

Averaged +3.4%

Last 5 Years

U.S. GDP U.S. GDP Averaged +2.9%

Averaged +2.9% Last 5 YearsLast 5 Years

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Leverage Points…Leverage Points…

Basic Chemicals and PlasticsBasic Chemicals and Plastics

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II’’m convinced that Global m convinced that Global Chemicals markets are being Chemicals markets are being grossly overbuilt & will soon be grossly overbuilt & will soon be overrun by New Gulf productoverrun by New Gulf product……

While the global market is large While the global market is large enough to absorb the New Gulf enough to absorb the New Gulf capacity, high cost and outcapacity, high cost and out--ofof--position producers will suffer as position producers will suffer as rebalancing occursrebalancing occurs……Focus Here…Focus HereFocus Here……

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0%0%

20%20%

40%40%

60%60%

80%80%

100%100%

0000 0101 0202 0303 0404 0505 0606 0707 0808 0909 1010 1111 1212 1313 1414 15150%0%

20%20%

40%40%

60%60%

80%80%

100%100%Global Basic Chemicals and Plastics New CapacityGlobal Basic Chemicals and Plastics New Capacity

Revolutionary shift in new capacity emphasis is Revolutionary shift in new capacity emphasis is already altering value chain patternsalready altering value chain patterns……

China Leveraging its Coal-to-Chemicals

Capabilities for Vinyls and Methanol

China Leveraging its China Leveraging its CoalCoal--toto--Chemicals Chemicals

Capabilities for Capabilities for Vinyls and MethanolVinyls and Methanol

Emphasis Shifts to the “New Gulf”

Percent of World Total being added by China & New GulfPercent of World Total being added by China & New Gulf

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A Measure of Inexperienced Commissioning

00

55

1010

1515

2020

2525

0000 0101 0202 0303 0404 0505 0606 0707 0808 0909 1010 1111 1212 1313 1414 151500

55

1010

1515

2020

2525

A Full Measure of Global Market

Weakening

Explosion of new capacity in narrow timeframe Explosion of new capacity in narrow timeframe presents challenging period for commissioningpresents challenging period for commissioning……“New Gulf” Basic Chemicals/Plastics Added Capacity“New Gulf” Basic Chemicals/Plastics Added Capacity

Million Metric TonsMillion Metric TonsMillion Metric Tons

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0%0%

5%5%

10%10%

15%15%

20%20%

25%25%

30%30%

OlefinsOlefins AromaticsAromatics ChlorChlor--AlkaliAlkali MethanolMethanol ThermoplasticsThermoplastics PolyethylenePolyethylene

Select Chemicals & Plastics Percent Global Capacity in New Gulf

Select Chemicals & Plastics Percent Global Capacity in New Gulf

By 2015By 2015

While notable in size and level of investment, While notable in size and level of investment, New Gulf producers will remain price takersNew Gulf producers will remain price takers……

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North American production will North American production will decline significantly in 2008 & decline significantly in 2008 & 2009 as more low cost 2009 as more low cost ““New New GulfGulf”” capacity comes on line...capacity comes on line...

While depressing longer term While depressing longer term demand, high oil prices favor demand, high oil prices favor NAM producers. Decline in NAM producers. Decline in exports is unavoidable but exports is unavoidable but overall impact is muted by overall impact is muted by improved relative cost positionimproved relative cost position

Focus Here…Focus HereFocus Here……

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Market rebalancing

occurs across this

slice

WEPWEPSEASEA SAMSAM

NEANEA

NAMNAM

New GulfNew Gulf

AlbertaAlberta

U.S. AverageU.S. Average

$50$50

$250$250

$450$450

$650$650

$850$850

$1050$1050

$1250$1250

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100 120120 140140 160160 180180Cumulative Capacity (Million Tons)Cumulative Capacity (Million Tons)

(Per Metric Ton)(Per Metric Ton)20072007 Average Feedstock BasisAverage Feedstock Basis

Global Light Olefins Cash Costs By SiteGlobal Light Olefins Cash Costs By Site

U.S. Ethane Valued @ 10 Cents per Gallon above Fuel ValueU.S. Ethane Valued @ 10 Cents per Gallon above Fuel Value

Large production base provides a buffer to world events. NAM leverages natural gas position...

U.S. EthaneU.S. Ethane Steam Cracker Combined

Ethylene and Propylene Cost

Curve

Steam Cracker Combined

Ethylene and Propylene Cost

Curve

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Octane markets will always be Octane markets will always be tight and volatile during summer tight and volatile during summer months, making the U.S. the months, making the U.S. the high cost high cost btxbtx suppliersupplier……

Refinery expansions, MSATRefinery expansions, MSAT--2, 2, required use of ethanol & other required use of ethanol & other biofuelsbiofuels, plus CAFE standards , plus CAFE standards (corp. avg. fuel economy) turn the (corp. avg. fuel economy) turn the U.S. into a surplus U.S. into a surplus btxbtx marketmarket……

…… and lower relative prices. and lower relative prices. Focus Here…Focus HereFocus Here……

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U.S. Incremental Octane Availability Index 2000 = 100

U.S. Incremental Octane Availability Index 2000 = 100

00

5050

100100

150150

200200

250250

300300

350350

Ethanol & BioFuelsEthanol & BioFuels

MTBEMTBE

““BioFuelsBioFuels”” mandate has numerous leverage points mandate has numerous leverage points for for petchemspetchems as refiners adjust operationsas refiners adjust operations……

9494 9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202 0303 0404 0505 0606 0707 0808 0909 1010 1111 1212 1313 1414 1515

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Significant new Significant new chlorchlor--alkali alkali capacity appears in 2008 capacity appears in 2008 -- 2009 2009 flooding caustic markets and flooding caustic markets and impacting ECU valuesimpacting ECU values……

Demand for caustic in alumina, Demand for caustic in alumina, pulp and paper applications will pulp and paper applications will remain strong as emerging remain strong as emerging economies and trade expand.economies and trade expand.

……PVC growth has underperformedPVC growth has underperformedFocus Here…Focus HereFocus Here……

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Vinyls chain influences led to the tight market conditions for Caustic that prevail today…

VinylsVinyls chain influences led to the tight market chain influences led to the tight market conditions for Caustic that prevail todayconditions for Caustic that prevail today……

Vinyl's Support of Caustic Demand GrowthVinyl's Support of Caustic Demand Growth

Global CumulativeGlobal CumulativeGlobal Cumulative

-1000--10001000-800--800800-600--600600-400--400400-200--200200

000200200200400400400600600600800800800

100010001000

030303 040404 050505 060606 070707 080808 090909 101010 111111 121212

Vinyls Related Caustic Generation vs…VinylsVinyls Related Caustic Generation Related Caustic Generation vsvs……

(-,000 Dry Metric Tons)(-,000 Dry Metric Tons)

Consolidations and Closures

Consolidations Consolidations and Closuresand Closures

…Growth in Caustic Demand in Pulp, Paper and Alumina ……Growth in Caustic Demand in Pulp, Paper and Alumina Growth in Caustic Demand in Pulp, Paper and Alumina

+ Over-Generating+ Over+ Over--GeneratingGenerating

- Under-Generating-- UnderUnder--GeneratingGenerating

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Timing the CycleTiming the Cycle

Excess CapacityExcess Excess

CapacityCapacity

Weakness in Pricing

Power

Weakness Weakness in Pricing in Pricing

PowerPower

InvestmentInvestmentInvestment

Competitive DevaluationCompetitive Competitive DevaluationDevaluation

Consolidation& Closures

ConsolidationConsolidation& Closures& Closures

Pricing Power Returns

Pricing Power Pricing Power ReturnsReturns

Over-Investment

OverOver--InvestmentInvestment

Chemicals Cycle

Chemicals Cycle

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While demand is much more While demand is much more geographically diverse, the pace geographically diverse, the pace of overbuilding is so large that a of overbuilding is so large that a long downlong down--cycle is certaincycle is certain……

Incredibly efficient raw materials Incredibly efficient raw materials to end use value chain are being to end use value chain are being extended. Downextended. Down--cycle will cycle will occur but this one appears to be occur but this one appears to be fairly mild and short lived.fairly mild and short lived.Focus Here…Focus HereFocus Here……

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Demand growth remains resilient despite high Demand growth remains resilient despite high energy values ~ leveraging widespread usageenergy values ~ leveraging widespread usage……

Global Basic Chemicals & Plastics Two-Year Rolling Average Demand Growth

Global Basic Chemicals & Plastics Two-Year Rolling Average Demand Growth

Two-Years Ending in…Two-Years Ending in…

Demand GrowthDemand Growth Log. TrendLog. Trend

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

8787 8989 9191 9393 9595 9797 9999 0101 0303 0505 0707 0909 1111 1313 15152%2%

3%3%

4%4%

5%5%

6%6%

7%7%

8%8%

9%9%Percentage GrowthPercentage Growth

Million Metric TonsMillion Metric Tons Percent GrowthPercent Growth

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Consumer Demand

Consumer Demand

Hydrocarbon

Value

Hydrocarbon

Value Labor CostLabor Cost

Product will follow most cost-effective path to market…Product will follow most cost-effective path to market…

9595 9696 9797 9898 9999 0000 0101 0202 0303 0404 0505 0606 0707

Billions of U.S. Dollars Billions of U.S. Dollars Percent From ChinaPercent From ChinaU.S. Imports U.S. Imports Manufactured GoodsManufactured Goods

From Outside NAFTAFrom Outside NAFTA

00200200400400600600800800

100010001200120014001400

5%5%10%10%15%15%20%20%25%25%30%30%35%35%40%40%

Source: U.S. Department of CommerceSource: U.S. Department of Commerce

ChinaChinaAll OthersAll Others

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Pricing Pricing battles for battles for

market market share will share will

soon soon develop develop ––

but only for but only for the the

spoils.spoils.

This graphic depicts the ability to consume versus the pressures to export these products…

Asia & India’s ability to absorb the New Gulf supply is declining…

While the New Gulf’s capability to generate export products is expanding at a rapid rate…

This graphic depicts This graphic depicts the ability to consume the ability to consume versus the pressures versus the pressures to export these to export these productsproducts……

Asia & IndiaAsia & India’’s ability to s ability to absorb the New Gulf absorb the New Gulf supply is decliningsupply is declining……

While the New GulfWhile the New Gulf’’s s capability to generate capability to generate export products is export products is expanding at a rapid expanding at a rapid raterate……

New Gulf exports are becoming much more New Gulf exports are becoming much more global in target market focusglobal in target market focus……..

0%0%

50%50%

100%100%

150%150%

200%200%

250%250%

300%300%

9191 9393 9595 9797 9999 0101 0303 0505 0707 0909 1111 1313 1515

Asia and India’s Ability to Absorb New Gulf ExportsAsia and IndiaAsia and India’’s Ability to s Ability to Absorb New Gulf ExportsAbsorb New Gulf Exports

50%50%

55%55%

60%60%

65%65%

70%70%

75%75%

80%80%New Gulf Exports – Ratio to Total Production

New Gulf Exports New Gulf Exports –– Ratio Ratio to Total Productionto Total Production

Basic Chemicals and Plastics

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Basic Chemicals and Plastics EBIT Comparison

$(50)$(50)

$(25)$(25)

$0$0

$25$25

$50$50

$75$75

$100$100

$125$125

$150$150

$175$175

$200$200

$225$225

8585 8787 8989 9191 9393 9595 9797 9999 0101 0303 0505 0707 0909 1111 1313 1515$(50)$(50)

$(25)$(25)

$0$0

$25$25

$50$50

$75$75

$100$100

$125$125

$150$150

$175$175

$200$200

$225$225OlefinsOlefinsOlefins

Global earnings suffer for 3-4 years then recover – New Gulf remains a price taker…

Global earnings suffer for 3Global earnings suffer for 3--4 years then 4 years then recover recover –– New Gulf remains a price takerNew Gulf remains a price taker……

AromaticsAromaticsAromatics Chlor-AlkaliChlorChlor--AlkaliAlkali MethanolMethanolMethanol PlasticsPlasticsPlasticsU.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

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2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar

Basic Chemicals and Plastics EBIT ComparisonBasic Chemicals and Plastics EBIT Comparison

$(50)$(50)

$(25)$(25)

$0$0

$25$25

$50$50

$75$75

$100$100

$125$125

$150$150

$175$175

$200$200

$225$225

8585 8787 8989 9191 9393 9595 9797 9999 0101 0303 0505 0707 0909 1111 1313 1515$(50)$(50)

$(25)$(25)

$0$0

$25$25

$50$50

$75$75

$100$100

$125$125

$150$150

$175$175

$200$200

$225$225U.S. Weighted AverageU.S. Weighted AverageU.S. Weighted AverageGlobal Volume Weighted AverageGlobal Volume Weighted AverageGlobal Volume Weighted Average

Americas earnings do not keep pace with global average – low cost New Gulf Influence…

Americas earnings do not keep pace with Americas earnings do not keep pace with global average global average –– low cost New Gulf Influencelow cost New Gulf Influence……

U.S. Dollars per Metric TonU.S. Dollars per Metric Ton

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2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar

Peak cycle conditions are transitioning to Peak cycle conditions are transitioning to a downturn profile and impact of a downturn profile and impact of

oversupply will be evident to all by late oversupply will be evident to all by late 2008. Bottom of cycle reached by end of 2008. Bottom of cycle reached by end of this decade. Widespread margin decline this decade. Widespread margin decline

in 2009 then pricing power returns for in 2009 then pricing power returns for most chains by 2013.most chains by 2013.

Focus OnFocus On: Emerging economies: Emerging economies’’ (especially (especially ChinaChina’’s) ability to absorb new supply & velocity s) ability to absorb new supply & velocity of New Gulf products to market, displacing of New Gulf products to market, displacing Americas, Asia and European producers.Americas, Asia and European producers.

Timing the CycleTiming the Cycle

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2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar

Global Demand Remains Robust; Global Demand Remains Robust; Energy markets remain firmEnergy markets remain firm

New Capacity somewhat delayed but New Capacity somewhat delayed but market impact unavoidablemarket impact unavoidable

Americas Americas ““export opportunitiesexport opportunities”” tied tied to ethylene derivatives but imports of to ethylene derivatives but imports of finished goods acceleratefinished goods accelerate

By late 2008, evident all markets are By late 2008, evident all markets are softening softening –– emotional then physicalemotional then physical

Era of Consolidations and closures Era of Consolidations and closures continues; recovery appears by 2012+continues; recovery appears by 2012+

Let me be perfectly clear about our vision of the next five years…

Let me be perfectly clear about our vision of Let me be perfectly clear about our vision of the next five yearsthe next five years……

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2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar2008 APIC – CMAI Seminar

- Biofuels changing refinery operations and impacting petrochemicals supply and values.

- New Gulf capacity achieving sustainable operating levels, forcing international market rebalancing.

- International crude oil and natural gas (NGL) values continuing divergence, altering cost positions.

- Globalization of Value Chains becoming competitive reality as major petchem producers link with NOCs.

- Green regulations and public opinion creating a market departure from historical growth patterns.

- Underperforming assets closing at an increasing rate.

-- BiofuelsBiofuels changing refinery operations and impacting changing refinery operations and impacting petrochemicals supply and values.petrochemicals supply and values.

-- New GulfNew Gulf capacity achieving sustainable operating capacity achieving sustainable operating levels, forcing international market rebalancing.levels, forcing international market rebalancing.

-- International crude oil and natural gas (NGL) values International crude oil and natural gas (NGL) values continuing divergence, altering cost positions.continuing divergence, altering cost positions.

-- Globalization of Value Chains becoming competitive Globalization of Value Chains becoming competitive reality as major reality as major petchempetchem producers link with producers link with NOCsNOCs..

-- Green regulations and public opinion creating a Green regulations and public opinion creating a market departure from historical growth patterns.market departure from historical growth patterns.

-- Underperforming assets closing at an increasing rate.Underperforming assets closing at an increasing rate.

Bottom Line Message: Significant Change is Underway ~ Shift Your Focus to…

…Leveraging Resulting Opportunities!

Bottom Line Message: Significant Change is Bottom Line Message: Significant Change is Underway ~ Shift Your Focus toUnderway ~ Shift Your Focus to……

……Leveraging Resulting Opportunities!Leveraging Resulting Opportunities!