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Hospitality | November 2017 1 PORTUGAL HOSPITALITY A Cushman & Wakefield Publication www.cushmanwakefield.pt November 2017

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Hospitality | November 2017

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PORTUGALHOSPITALITY

A Cushman & Wakefield Publication

www.cushmanwakefield.pt

November 2017

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“The tourism sector has been experien-cing strong growth, as evidenced by the excellent performance of hotel units and by the record levels seen, year upon year since 2010, in all major tourism indicators. Several factors explain the recent performance of this industry:

• The strategy implemented on the part of national tourism organizations which has shifted to the structuring and mar-keting of products and tourist destina-tions adapted to the demands of the market;

• International and national economic growth;

• The increase in flight connections from feeder markets, in addition to the opening of new routes and markets;

• Security fears in the north of Africa, which contributed to channeling the demand to more established destina-tions.

The international community has recog-nized the value of Portugal as a tourist destination through several awards and distinctions: for example, the World Travel Awards granted 14 distinctions to hotel establishments in Portugal in 2017, and also recognized the country as Europe´s leading destination, the region of the Algarve as Europe´s leading beach destination and the region of Madeira as Europe´s leading Island destination.

In this context, the tourism sector has witnessed an exceptional performance, with the last three years recording consecutive double-digit revenue growth. This performance has sparked the interest of international investors in tourism-related real estate, finding in these assets investment options at attracive returns. The cities of Lisbon and Porto, and the region of the Algar-ve, are today appealing destinations for international capital which recognizes the value upside of these locations.

In response to growing interest from property investors, Cushman & Wake-field has prepared this study on the Portuguese hotel market, which seeks to systemise key information to support the decision-making process. The main objective of this Business Briefing is to combine occupational data on the sector, with information on the opera-tional performance of hotels and the dynamics of investment in hotels as property assets.

Eric van LeuvenHead of Portugal

Tourism market booming

INDEX

1. Demand 5

2. Supply 10

3. Hotel operations 14

4. Short stay accomodation 15

5. Lisbon 16

6. Porto 19

7. Investment 22

8. Trends 26

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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

January to September October to December

1. DEMAND

The demand for hotels initiated, in 2010, the upwards trend which has remained until today. Security concerns in the main destinations of the Middle East and the north of Africa were important drivers for growth, which was then consolidated thanks to the higher quality of the supply and also the economic recovery, which has driven domestic demand. The increase in overnight stays from January to September in the country displays growth of 7.3% when compared to 2016, with our estimates pointing to 57.4 million overnight stays by the year-end.

OvErNIghT STAyS - POrTugAl

The number of guests has grown sharply throughout the past decade, with an increase of 54% in the last 10 years, compared to 42% recorded in overnight stays. This growth reflects a slight correction in the average stay, which decreased from 3 days to 2.85 between 2006 and 2017 and is explained by a sharper increase in demand for the city break destinations of Lisbon and Porto, as opposed to beach destinations, such as the Algarve and Madeira.

Source: INE | * Estimated

46.3 MIllION Overnight stays in hotel units - January to September 2017

57.4 MIllION Estimated overnight stays in hotel units - 2017

7,3%Increase in 2017 ( y.o.y)

MACrO INDICATOrS

guESTS EvOluTION

+74%Increase in foreign guests 2006-2016

+32%Increase in national guests 2006-2016

Mill

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Foreigners National

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Occupancy rates increased in line with other indicators, registering a sharp increase at a national level, rising from 57% in 2006 to the 70% recorded today. The Autonomous Region of Madeira and the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon are the areas which performed best in terms of occupancy, with rates of 81% and 78% respectively.

In the past 10 years the tourism sector has undergone several strategic changes which have positioned Portugal as a more diversified destination. Over the past decade, the main drivers of demand for sun, sea and sand destinations have extended to a range of specialised products in several sectors, such as culture, nature, leisure and gastronomy.

The cities of Lisbon and Porto (leisure and culture destinations), as well as the Azores (nature destination), have played a crucial role in this diversification process, and are the regions which recorded the largest growth in demand.

The change of the tourism profile in Portugal is displayed in the evolution of demand indicators. Although the growth in the tourist market has been felt in the country as a whole, there are significant differences between regions.

The most established destinations, such as the Algarve and Madeira, have lost some market share when compared to the northern region or the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon. The Algarve remains the main national tourist destination, having captured 16.1 million overnight stays between January and September of this year, but the hotels in the Lisbon region received the highest number of tourists, in the order of 4.74 million.

OCCuPANCy rATE

MArkET ShArE EvOluTION - 2006/2017*

rEgIONAl MArkET ShArE

EvOluTION OvEr A DECADE guESTS by NATIONAlITy - 2017

DEMAND PrOFIlE

94%North region almost duplicated overnights in the last decade

+3%Increase in Greater Lisbon and North region market share

-5%Decrease in Algarve market share

+876.000France enters the top 3 main feeder markets

+421.000Brazilian tourists triple

120%Growth of guests from smaller markets

-3%Decrease in the Autonomous Region of Madeira

Among the most significant factors in the growth of the market in the past decade are the increase in the proportion of foreign tourists and a greater variety of emission markets. In 2006, the proportion of foreign tourists in Portugal was 53%, increasing to 62% in 2017; an absolute increase of 4.8 million foreign tourists over the past decade, or around 75% increase.

Source: INE | * January to September

%

Source: INE | * January to September

Throughout the last decade, France has recorded the largest absolute growth in the number of tourists, followed by t the United Kingdom, Germany and Brazil. The increasing share of guests originating from minority markets, particularly Poland and Switzerland, is also noticable, and an advantage to the sector in terms of risk diversification.

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

%

Portugal Norte Centro Área Metropolitana de Lisboa

Alentejo Algarve Região Autónoma dos Açores Região Autónoma da Madeira

North Center

Azores Madeira

Lisbon Metropolitan Area

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OCCuPANCy rATE PEr rEgION

The growth in tourism demand has had a direct impact on the performance of hotel units, whose main operating indicators have all showed improvements. The occupancy rate increased 6 percentage points in the past decade, settling at 63% in 2016.

The greater increase in occupancy levels in the regions of Madeira and the Azores can be explained by a slight growth in demand, in contrast to the region of Lisbon. In addition, the emergence and exponential growth of local accomodation have had a less favourable impact on the performance of hotels in Greater Lisbon. Even so, the growth of the hotel sector in Portugal in the past decade has been extraordinary and reflects the enormous potential of the country as a tourist destination.

+14%Azores is the 2nd region with the largest growth in occupancy

80%Madeira is the leader in terms of occupancy

76%Lisbon falls to 2nd place in terms of occupancy

Source: INE | * January to September

%

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Future supply is estimated at over 120 projects due to open in the next 3 to 5 years. The majority of these are hotel units and situated in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon (around 50 projects), as well as in the northern region, where over 30 new tourism developments are planned.

2. SuPPlyDISTrIbuTION OF hOTEl SuPPly - POrTugAl SuPPly by TyPE OF ESTAblIShMENT - Nº

Supply by category of establishment - Nº hotels

Sun & BeachAlgarve and Madeira

29% rooms16% establishments

NatureAzores and Douro

8% rooms8% establishments

City Breaks & BusinessLisbon and Porto

23% rooms17% establishments

The supply is mostly composed of hotel units, which account for 77% of the total accomodation units. Short stay accomodation, not accounted for in these data, has become an important alternative for tourists, essentially competing with hotels and touristic apartments. Resorts remain relatively insignificant on a national level, though their presence in the regions of the Algarve and the centre (west region) is more relevant.

Hotel supply in Portugal, today estimated at 1,500 units, is concentrated mainly in 4-star units, representing 34% of supply, followed by 3-star units which account for 30% of total projects. 5-star hotels still have a relatively modest share, of only 10% and around 150 projects.

With regard to future supply in Portugal, the market trend is for specialisation and qualification, both in terms of the product and service. The category of the projects opened in recent years reflects this trend; of the 170 hotel units opened since 2014, the 4-star category is dominant, corresponding to around 90 openings.

9%Resorts and Villas

3%Rural Tourism

10% Aparthotel and Apartments

77%Hotel

Madeira

Açores

*Cushman & Wakefield property database ** Accomodation units: Bedrooms, apartments and houses

Portugal currently has around 2,200 hotel establishments and similar*, which offer more than 135,000 lodging units**. The majority of the hotel supply in Portugal is concentrated in the regions of the Algarve and Madeira and the urban centres of Lisbon and Porto. More recently, the archipelago of the Azores has begun to position itself as a tourist destination with enormous potential, currently representing a larger proportion of supply than in the past. The region of Douro, in the north of the country, also provides considerable supply and growth potential.

Lisbon Metropolitan Area Porto Metropolitan Area Algarve

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MAIN hOTEl OPErATOrS IN POrTugAl

The Pestana Group is the largest hotel operator in Portugal, with approximately 70 units and more than 5,000 rooms. Accor Hotels is the second most represented operator in the country and the largest international brand, with a network of 32 units and over 3,300 rooms.

The Vila Galé Group follows in terms of size, with 21 hotels and over 3,000 rooms.

Among the international operators present in Portugal, in addition to the aforementioned Accor, Melia hotels (in partnership with the local Hoti Hotels), Marriot & Starwood and the Intercontinental Hotel Group are of particular note.

The hotel industry is characterised by highly fragmented ownership and a reducd presence of international operators.

The 20 largest operators in the market account for only 15% of hotel units, although number of rooms is more significant, representing 37% of the total.

With regard to the level of internationalisation of the sector, among the 10 largest operators present in the market, only 4 are international brands.

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3. hOTEl OPErATIONS The hotel industry in Portugal was severely affected by the economic crisis. Overnight stays recorded sharp falls from 2008, only recovering to pre-crisis volumes in 2013. With regard to revenues, the downward trajectory began in 2009 and was only fully recovered in 2014. Several factors contributed to the recovery of the sector, notably international and national economic growth, but the substantial reorganisation of the hotel industry was also key, characterised by mergers and acquisitions, resulting in optimised hotel accounts.

From 2014, hotel income confirmed the reversal of the cycle, with successive annual double-digit growth in total revenues recorded since that year.

The breakdown of revenue in the hotel sector reflects the highly positive effect of the increase in average daily rates.

Throughout the past decade, accommodation revenue has grown from a 66% share of total income, to 72%. Income resulting from F&B and other represented only 28% of the total.

The average daily rate in Portugal has increased 40% in the past decade, with the Algarve region recording the sharpest growth, over 60%.

The Metropolitan Area of Lisbon stands out in terms of average daily rate, when compared to the rest of the country, at €56. The northern region has the second highest average price today, €44, followed by the Algarve, with €42.

INCOME EvOluTION - POrTugAl

AvErAgE DAIly rATE

+7%Average annual growth over the last decade

+16%Increase in 2017 (y.o.y)

€2,9 mil milhõesIncome in 2016

84% / 80%Occupancy rate in August

81€ / 70€Average daily rate in August

57% / 62%Property retention rate

€2,3 mil milhõesIncome from January to September 2017

4. ShOrT STAy ACCOMODATIONThe short stay accommodation market began its early growth in Portugal from 2010 onwards but more significantly from 2013, when supply in the city of Lisbon had reached 2,000 units, and in Porto 500. Currently, Airbnb records active supply in Lisbon of around 14,000 units and 6,000 in Porto.

Short stay accommodation is seen by tourists as alternative to traditional lodging, and as such competing with hotels. However, conventional hotels seek to differentiate themselves through the provision of services, adding value to the experience of tourists, with short stay accommodation therefore being a complementary offer.

This type of accommodation has, over the past 7 years, proved to be attractive, considering the retention rate of property (the share of currently active units when compared to the total units available in the market since the start of the data analysis in 2010), which in Lisbon and Porto is the highest among comparable markets, both in terms of relative size and type of destination.

Although short stay accommodation is traditionally exploited by private individuals, the increasing professionalisation is notable. Currently, short stay accommodation portfolios represent over 70% of the total supply in Lisbon and Porto.

In Europe, and in comparison with similar tourist destinations, the city of Barcelona dominates supply. Lisbon finds itself in 5th place of the 8 cities reviewed, while Porto is the city with the lowest amount of short stay units.

The average prices reflect a reality comparable to that of the hotel market, with Portuguese cities practising the lowest prices within the sample.

MAIN INDICATOrS lISbON/POrTO*

SuPPly OF lOCAl ACCOMMODATION*

AvErAgE DAIly rATE FOr lOCAl ACCOMMODATION - AuguST

149€ 149€ 148€

80€ 70€77€81€83€

Barcelona

Lisbon

Dublin

Budapest

Amsterdam

Berlin

Madrid

Porto

Source: INE | *January to September Source: Airdna | * Airbnb

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500

1000

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January to September October to December

- 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000

Barcelona

Dublin

Amsterdam

Madrid

Lisbon

Budapest

Berlin

Porto

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5. lISbONThe Metropolitan Area of Lisbon is the largest tourist destination in Portugal, in terms of visitors, with over 4,7 million guests between January and September of 2017 - 10% more than in the same period of 2016.

Lisbon International Airport is the main point of arrival for foreign tourists, with 12.1 million passengers in the first half of the year, 22% more than in 2016. Arrivals by cruise liners at the Port of Lisbon stills hold a relatively small share of total arrivals of foreign tourists to the capital, but have growth potential. Between January and September of 2017, the city received 225 cruise liners, carrying 365,000 passengers., The recently opened new cruise terminal at Santa Apolónia, uniquely close to the in the centre of the city, will bring increased capacity to Lisbon.

Tourism in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon is distributed between the cities of Lisbon, Cascais and Sintra, in addition to the beach areas to the north and south of the city. The city of Lisbon is an important and award-winning business and city break destination and also a starting point for tourists who visit other regions of the country.

Greater Lisbon currently has 360 hotel establishments, offering around 31,500 accommodation units*. Future projects due to open in the next 3 to 5 years total around 50 units, the vast majority of which in the city of Lisbon.

The current hotel supply is also concentrated in the city, with 61% of units and 66% of rooms.

Hotels are located mainly in the historic centre, with a significant cluster also in Parque das Nações, and more recently along the river front.

Hotel supply in Lisbon is generally of a higher category than the rest of the country, with 5-star hotels accounting for 15% of all projects and a larger share than the national averageof 4-star hotels too.

22%Increase in 2017 (y.o.y)

365.000Cruise passengers from January to September 2017

12,1 milhõesLisbon Airport passengers 1st half 2017

225Cruise ships in Lisbon from January to September 2017

There are known intentions for around 40 projects for the city of Lisbon, adding circa 3,500 accommodation units. The majority of the projects are located in the city centre and are in the 4 and 5-star categories.

Although the sustainability of the growth rate in recent years is sometimes questioned, the growth of demand is actually 3 times higher than that of supply: while the forecast for new openings in the city of Lisbon over the next 3 years implies an increase in capacity of the order of 3%, overnight stays in the capital over have grown at an average annual rate of 11% in recent years..

The city of Lisbon has a far higher concentration of operators than the rest of the country. The 10 largest operators in the city account for 26% of hotel unit and 44% of rooms, with . Portuguese operators in the majority.

The Sana Group has the largest number of hotels and rooms in operation in Lisbon, followed by the VIP group and, in third place, Accor Hotels.

hOTEl SuPPly - lISbON CITy

+200Establishments

+20.000Rooms

53 3* Hotels 97 4* Hotels 32 5* Hotels

* Source: Cushman & Wakefield property database

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Hotel units in the city of Lisbon captured 84% of all overnight stays in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon in 2016, and 79% of hotel revenue, confirming the city’s dominant status in the hotel industry in the region. Lisbon also presents highly favourable key performance indicators , far superior to those seen in the rest of the country, with an occupancy rate in the order of 82% in September and an average daily rate of more than €100, almost double the amount in the Metropolitan Area of Lisbon in the same period.

MAIN hOTEl OPErATOrS - lISbON

hOTElS OPErATIONS - lISbON

+16%Increase in income 2016

+11%Increase in overnight stays - 2016

82%Occupancy rate2017*

€102Average daily rate in 2017*

€692 milhõesHotel income 2016

€11 milhõesOvernight stays2016

6. PORTOPorto has also recorded substantial growth in tou-rism in the past years, and is today one of Europe’s favourite city break destinations . Both the historic centre of the city and the nearby Alto Douro Wine Region have been awarded Unesco World Heritage status and this explains in part the success of the city as a tourist destination, but it was the increase in international flight connections to the Francisco Sá Carneiro International Airport which was the main driver for growth.

In the first half of 2017 the airport received over 5 million passengers, representing growth of 18% when compared to 2016.

The cruise liner market is still at an early stage, but the opening of the new, striking terminal in the Port of Leixões in 2015 should trigger growth in this industry, which between January and September welcomed 83,000 passengers and 83 cruise liners.

The Metropolitan Area of Porto today has more than 170 hotel establishments, offering around 12,000 accommodation units*. Future projects due to open in the next 3 years exceed 30 units, the vast majority of which in the city of Porto.

18,5%Increase in 2017 ( y.o.y)

83.000Cruise passengers from January to September 2017

5 milhõesPorto Airport Passengers1st Half 2017

83Cruise ships in Porto (Leixões) from January to September 2017

* Source: Cushman & Wakefield property database Source: INE | *January to September

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+90Establishments

+6.200Rooms

19 4* Hotels 31 3* Hotels 7 5* Hotels

The city of Porto has a higher concentration of operators than Lisbon, with the 10 largest hotel groups accounting for 31% of all units and 57% of allrooms on offer. In contrast to Lisbon, international chains operate the majority of supply, providing 60% of rooms.

The Fénix Hotels have the largest supply of rooms in the city, followed by the Marriot & Starwood Hotels and, in third place, the Hoti Hotels/Meliá.

The city of Porto dominates the tourist market of the wider northern region: in 2016, hotel units in the city captured 49% of overnight stays and 61% of hotel revenues. The city presents very satisfactory key performance indicators and its growth reveals the potential of the sector. In 2016, the increase in overnight stays was in the order of 15%, 4 percentage points higher than Lisbon, while revenues grew more than 25% in just one year, 9 points more than the capital.

MAIN hOTEl OPErATOrS - POrTO

hOTElS OPErATIONS - POrTO

+25%Income growth2016

+15%Overnight stays growth - 2016

€175 milhõesHotel income2016

€3,3 milhõesOvernight stays2016

The city of Porto holds a very significant share of the total hotel supply in its metropolitan area, accounting for 52% of units and 56% of rooms. The hotels are largely concentrated in the historic centre, with a significant cluster also located in the Boavista area (essentially focused on business tourism). With regard to the category of hotels, the city shows a larger proportion of units of 3-stars and less, by contrast to the breakdown at national level, where 4 and 5-star categories are more prevalent.

The increasing draw of the city for international tourists is attracting investment in new hotel units, with 18 new projects currently planned for the city, representing over 1,200 rooms. Almost all of the new hotels planned for Porto in the next 3 years are of 4 and 5-star categories.

This growth represents an average annual increase in the order of 3%, a far lower rate than that of demand, where the average annual growth between 2014 and 2016 has been close to 15%.

hOTEl SuPPly - POrTO CITy

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7.INvESTMENTThe tourism sector has gained prominence in property investment activity at a global level. International investors have a growing apetite for this type of assets, thanks not only to attractive rates of return, but also to a trend for diversification in terms of portfolio asset allocation as well as country risk.

According to Real Capital Analytics (RCA), investment in the hotel sector in core world markets has increased its share of total transactions from a mere 4% in 2008, to 12% in 2016. Assets in the United Kingdom,

Germany and France have the preferences of investors in the sector, having attracted over €80 billion of investment, more than half the volume invested in the whole of Europe.

In Portugal, the lower volumes of investment in tourism assets was essentially due to the the majority of hotel groups still preferring go own the real estate which led to a scarcity of assets for sale, making entry for institutional property investors more difficult.

From 2010, the impact of the economic crisis on the tourism sector forced some hotel groups to divest, while the banking sector was pressured to reduce its exposure to the property market. In this context, restructuring funds emerged, intervening in several sectors of the economy, but particularly in the tourism sector, which, as a result of the crisis that ravaged the country, concentrated a significant number of toxic assets. These restructuring vehicles thus began their activity in the sector and today hold significant portfolios of hotel assets, in some cases setting up their own management structures and establishing their own brands.

The activity of these funds triggered the beginning of institutional property investment market in the sector, to the extent that some of the assets acquired by these funds were repositioned and put on the market. As such, from 2014, transactions of hotel assets increased, both in terms of acquisition of the operation and/or of the real estate for investment, often by means of sale and leaseback operations.

In the past decade, the tourism sector has been responsible for around 50 transactions in the Portuguese market, totalling over €800 million. This ismore orless equally divided by transactions for investment purposes or for occupancy , although since last year, the market has seen a higher volume of acquisitions for operational purposes.

MSCI, through its property market index IPD, has studied institutional investment in hotels since 2011 and, from 2015, has identified the hotel sector as the 5th largest asset class in the global IPD portfolio. In 2015, institutional ownership of hotels, within the IPD portfolio, totalled approximately €13,5 billion, with a high concentration in the United Kingdom (35%), Germany (15%) and Spain (10%). Investment in Portugal was, to date, insignificant, at only 0.4%.

RCA calculate investment in hotel assets in Europe over the past decade to be €135 billion, showing a growing trend between 2008 and 2014 and a fall from 2015, albeit still with significantly higher volumes than the average for the decade.

IPD PAN EurOPEAN hOTEl POrTFOlIO - 2015

hOTEl INvESTMENT IN EurOPE

hOTEl INvESTMENT IN EurOPE - 2007/2017*

Source: RCA, MSCI | *January to October Source: RCA | *January to October

0

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Total Média 2008/2016

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Local investors hold a significant share of total investment, 47%, although foreign investment has maintained a larger share. European investors in Portuguese hotels have been a minority in the past decade, representing only 10% of volume, with Thai capital accounting for a very significant share (total around 380 million), corresponding entirely to the purchase of the Tivoli portfolio by Minor International.

With regard to the profitability of this asset class, the analysis of MSCI in its property market index, IPD, displays higher average annualised returns than other segments of the markets. In 2016, the annualised return of hotels in the pan-European IPD portfolio reached 9.1%, while the core property sectors recorded 5.7% in retail, 7.2% in offices and 8.1% in industrial. Annualised returns over 5 years were 7.5% for hotels, 7% for retail, 7% for offices and 9.6% for industrial.

In Portugal, lack of scale of hotels in the the portfolios does not allow for the release of returns on the part of IPD, however, with regard to yields on acquisition, since 2014, these averaged 6.4%, varying between 5% and 7.5%.

In terms of price per room, growth has been witnessed in the past 3 years. Transactions of distressed assets, or assets in the recovery phase, between 2014 and 2016, recorded amounts in the order of €130,000 per room. More recent sale and leaseback transactions of urban hotels, saw a significant price increase, to ca. €165,000 per room. Assets in premium locations would today command a price per room of more than €250,000.

The trend will be for hospitality assets, particularly urban hotels in Lisbon and Porto, to become a more established asset class and to command a greater proportion of investors’ allocations. Yields should contract further as more professional operators with the capacity to achieve operational efficiencies enter the market.

hOTEl INvESTMENT DEAlS - POrTugAl

* January to October

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8. TrENDS

PRODUCT QUALIFICATIONFuture supply will concentrate on units of the upper categories.

CONSOLIDATION OF DOMINANT DESTINATIONSAlgarve, Lisbon, Porto and Madeira

OPERATOR CONSOLIDATIONThe current multitude of opera-tors in the market will decrease substantially through the growth of dominant brands, by acquisi-tion and organic growth.

SEPARATION OF PROPERTY AND MANAGEMENT (“BRICKS & BRAINS”)Institutional property investors will play an ever-increasing role in the ownership of hospitaly assets.

PERSONALISED SERVICEService will increasingly focus on the individual needs and wishes of customers.

MANAGEMENT PROFESSIONALISATIONOperational hotel management will increasingly be undertaken by specialist companies.

GROWTH OF ALTERNATIVE PRODUCTSNature – the Azores and Algarve hinterlandSurf –Coastal areas west of Lisbon, and along the Alentejo towards the AlgarveNew sun, sea and sand destinations – Troia, Alentejo coastNew cultural destinations –Évora, Coimbra, Aveiro, Guimarães, Braga

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