Portugal Economy Report

8/12/2019 Portugal Economy Report

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Portugal Country Report2014Group E2

Rajarshi SahaiRidhima Khurana

Ritesh KhareSourav SinghSruthi Dasari


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Table of Contents

1. Portugal A snapshot

2. Gross Domestic Product Composition Nominal and Real GDP Growth Analysis and Expectations

3. Inflation Consumer Price Deflation Analysis

4. Current Account trends and analysis From Deficit to Surplus- How?

Current Account Deficit- Good or bad?

5. Money Supply

6. Portugals Debt

7. Tax Environment

8. Exchange Rates

9. Labour market and Unemployment Trends

Labour market Reforms Impact of the Labour Market Reforms Are Labor Reforms Neccesary?

10. Unemployment Relationship between Unemployment and Industrial Production Impact on Minimum Wages Impact on Job Vacancies

Total Factor Productivity Growth Labour Cost and Export

11. Conclusion

12. Bibliography


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Portugal- A Snapshot

Administrative Details:

Official Name : Portuguese Republic Capital : Lisbon Government : Unitary Semi Presidential Republic President : Anibal Cavaco Silva Prime Minister : Pedro Passos Coelho

Demographic Indicators:

Population : 10,427,301 (2014 estimate) Ethnic Groups : 96.87% Portuguese

Economic Indicators:

Currency: Euro Current Unemployment rate : 18.5% (2014 estimate) Top 5 Export Destinations :

Spain (20%), France(11%), Germany(11%), Angola (6.7%), and UnitedKingdom(4.7%)

Top 5 Export Items : Refined Petroleum(7.4%), Cars (4.7%), VehicleParts (3.7%), Leather Footwear(3.3%), and Uncoated Paper(2.5%)

Top 5 Import Destinations : Spain (27%), Germany(11%), France(6.2%), Italy (5.3%),and China(4.9%)

Top 5 import items : Crude Petroleum(12%), Vehicle Parts(3.7%), PackagedMedicaments(3.1%), Cars (3.0%), and Petroleum Gas(2.9%)

Summary of Portugals Macro -Economic Factors i:

Annual Data 2013 Historical Averages (%) 2009 13

Population (M) 10.5 Population growth -0.2%

GDP ($B) 220 Real GDP Growth -1.4%GDP PPP ($B) 268 Inflation 1.4%

GDP per capita ($) 20,935 Real domestic demandgrowth -3.2%

GDP per capita - PPP ($) 25, 459 FDI Inflow (% GDP) 4%
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GDP Composition

The Portuguese economy was in recession from 2011 to 2013 and, although its near-termoutlook has improved over the past year, the challenges it faces remain stark. Real GDP isexpected to return to weak growth of 0.7% in 2014 before picking up to average 1.3% in 2015-18. Private consumption will recover slowly, but public consumption will contract each year to2017. Fixed investment will record modest growth, hampered by continued public-investmentcuts and caution on the part of companies and households over their economic prospects.

Nominal GDP & Real Growth Rate: Portugals Nominal GDP in 2013 was $220B, with a Real GDP growth of -1.4%. (as

shown in figure 1). The Real GDP growth for Portugal is below the growth rates ofOECD countries and global average that reflects is relatively poor economic condition.

For the years 2014 and 2015, Real GDP is expected to grow weakly at 0.7% and 0.9%respectively, but it continues to remain below the OECD and World averages

Figure 1: Portugal's Nominal GDP & Real GDP Growth (EIU data)

Analysis and Expectations:

Nominal GDP could increase slowly averaging 1.8% a year in 2014-18. This will serve to keepdebt ratios high, making debt servicing more difficult. Because countries in the monetary unioncannot resort to inflation as a way of reducing debt burdens, Portugal might have only three otherroutes to maintain solvency: severe fiscal retrenchment to generate primary surpluses; externalassistance; or default.

235 229 238212 220 226 216

-2.9%

1.9%

-1.3%-3.2%

-1.4%0.7% 0.9%

-10%

-5%

0%

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10%

050

100

150

200

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300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

U S

$ B

Portugal's Nominal GDP & Real GDPGrowth

Nominal GDP (US$ bn) Real GDP growth (%)


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Inflation

Consumer price inflation rate was 0.3% in 2013. The largest downward pressure on theoverall annual rate came from decreases in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Increases in cost of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and alcoholic beveragesand tobacco led to an opposite effect. Portugals weak inflation may hinder the paying down th e debt burden as sustained low

inflation tends to increase the length of erosion of real value of large public and private debts Inflation is expected to be low in medium-term forecast till 2015 (shown in figure 2), picking

up to a little over 2% by 2018

Consumer Prices Deflation :In May 2014 consumer prices dropped by an annual rateof 0.3%, according to Instituto Nacional de Estatstica (INE, the national statistics office). Thiswas acceleration from the year-on-year dip of 0.1% recorded in April.

Analysis:

Although downward pressure on prices is being experienced across the euro zone, the trends aremore pronounced in Portugal than in most other countries, reflecting the weakness of demand asthe economy moves into a fragile recovery phase. The 0.3% fall in consumer prices recorded inMay compares with an average rise of 0.5% across the euro zone as a whole. Although these broad disinflationary trends have now become pronounced enough for the European CentralBank to begin easing its policy stance once again, the steps it has mooted taking are unlikely todeliver a swift boost to price levels.

Current Account:Trends and Implications

The Current account balance as a percent of GDP provides an indication on the level ofinternational competitiveness of a country. Current account is calculated as Net Exports + Netfactor income from abroad a declining expenditure but rather households and firms maintainedexpenditure and aggregate borrowing increased while the trade balance remained relatively


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stable. The current account steadily deteriorated since 2004 to a deficit of more than 10 percentof GDP in 2007. This meant that Portugal experienced a steady deterioration of the currentaccount as declining transfers did not generate imports, a low saving rates and high personalconsumption rates as a percentage of disposable incomes. Portugal has current account deficit because it has had relatively higher inflation rates than other Eurozone economies. For example,rising labor costs are not met by improved productivity. This combination of higher prices andlower productivity makes its goods less attractive, leading to more imports and less exports.Hence the very large currents account deficits. If it had its own exchange rate, there would bedevaluation in the currency making exports more competitive and imports cheaper. This wouldhelp reduce the size of the current account deficit. The economy of Portugal was improving onthis front as we saw the current account deficit reducing steadily since 2011, and Portugalactually reported a current account surplus of 0.5 in 2013. This showed that Portugal hadincreased its dependence on foreign investment and export revenues, with high savings ratings but weak domestic demand.

From Current Account Deficit to Current Account Surplus: How?

1. Reduced Consumer Spending on imports:

The Portuguese Economic crisis stated that Portugal saw the biggest fall in real GDP(apart from Greece) in the Eurozone in 2009-1010. The increase in tax rates coupled withthe cuts in public spending reduced the disposable income of the Portuguese. With lowerincome, Portugal was simply buying less imports, which improved the current account.

2. More competitive exports: One of the reasons for the current account deficit was therising unit labor costs in Portugal, which the goods more expensive thus making exportsless competitive. Portugal reduced the prices and costs of goods produced, mainly by

reducing the labor costs, thus making exports more competitive. As seen from the belowgraph, the labor costs reduced by 4% from 2009-2012 to a record low of 64.2 in 2010, theyear when the trade balance started improving.


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In the first quarter of 2012, Portugal saw an 11.6% increase in exports and a 3.3% drop inimports. This narrowed the trade gap to 2.68bn, 38% lower than the 4.35bn recorded a yearearlier. However, exports seem to be increasing since 2005-06, with the rate of increase highersince 2010.

Current Account Surplus - Good or Bad?

The reduction in the current account deficit is due to both positive and negative factors. Thenegative factors involve the sharp drop in consumer spending as a result of the deep recession, a16% increase in unemployment and a sharp fall in industry wages.

On a more positive note, there are signs that that Portuguese exports are showing signs of growthand capturing new markets. Portugal may still have a long way to go in restoring competitivenessand it is not clear that modest growth in exports can compensate for the dramatic drop indomestic demand.


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Money Supply

Since 1999, when the Eurozone was created with its first 11 member countries, the monetary policies of Portugal are administered by the European Central Bank. While the monetary policiesare centrally managed from Euro Bank, the fiscal policies are still taken care of by Portugals

government. So, a study of Euro Central bank is necessary to understand the money policiesevident in Portugal.

Euro Central Bank Interest Rate:

1. 2001-2003: The Early 2000s Recession was fallout of the recession that had impactedUSA in 1999-2000. Eurozone was newly created and the value of Euro shot up sharply because of slowdown in US. This in turn caused unfavorable exchange rates forcompanies based in europe. This along with the dot-com bust, caused the Europeancentral bank to reduce interest rates to combat the deflation

2. 2006-08: The period of growth. To prevent inflation or over valuation, during this timethe European bank kept increasing the interest rates.

3. 2008-10: Great depression: Along with US, during this time Europe saw a majordepression and recession. As a result, liquidity dried out in the market. The Eurobankdrastically cut down on interest rates to once again encourage expenditure.

4. 2011-13: Eurozone Crisis: Portugal had caused considerable deficits in its budget due toill managed state public works and inflated wages for redundant public servants. Duringthe recession, when liquidity dried down and risky lending went down, Portugalsunmanageable debt structure came to the fore. At the same time, countries like Spain,Italy, Greece, and Ireland also suffered from similar problems. This is the reason whyEuro Central Bank had to bring down rates even further and almost close to zero.

5. The extent of Portugals debt as we can see that the total debt shot up sharply after 2008,which finally required Portugal to go for a bailout.


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Historical changes in Reserve Ratio and M3 Currency Drain Ratio:

The graph shows the effect of Eurozone Crisis on two major M3 ratios. As we can see from theCurrency Drain Ratio, people in eurozone (Portugal included) are holding greater amounts ofcurrency with them. The banks also had to increase their reserve rates considerably, as theunderlying risks associated with any asset increased during the eurozone crisis.

Portugal Inflation vs Interest Rates:

The major point worth noting in the graph above is that the sustained reduced interest rates afterthe recession, led to a high inflation rate in Portugal between 2010 to 2012. During the Eurozonecrisis, when Portugal received the bailout package, it had to bring in austerity measures, whichhas brought down the Inflation rate, so much so, that Portugal is now seeing deflation i.e. wheninflation rates fall below 0.

Portugals Debt

In 2013, Portugal ranked 6th in the World Debt to GDP scale, and second only to Greece in theEU. The external debt levels have peaked at EURO 407 Bn in 2010 Q2 and since have been brought down to EURO 382 Bn in 2014.

The external debt in 2013 stood at 127.8 %of GDP, showing a steady increasing trend.However, Portugals successful emergencefrom the bailout and a range of fiscaltightening measures must arrest this trend inthe future and the figure of 126.8% predicted by INE seems reasonable.0

100000200000

300000

400000

500000


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Tax Environment

The tax to GDP ratio of Portugal since 2000 has remained in the range of 30% to 33.2% of GDP, peaking in 2011. Since then, the reliance on taxation has come down with 0.8 percentage pointsimprovement in 2012, well below the EU-28 average of 39.4%.ii The government relies heavily

on indirect taxation to compensate for the relatively lower direct taxes. At 42.9%, Portugal hasthe 6th highest proportion of indirect taxes in the EU-28 nations (average indirect tax level at34.5%). Individual tax rates are progressive. The 2013 tax was 14.5% - 48% with an additional2.5% surcharge on incomes between EUR 80,000 EUR 250,000 and 5% for incomes exceedingEUR 250,000. The 2013 rate of tax for corporations was 25% with the additional 3% surchargefor incomes exceeding EUR 1.5 million up to EUR 7.5 million and 5% for income exceedingEUR 7.5 million and a local tax of up to 1.5%, implying overall taxes in the range of of 29.5% -31.5% in total.iiiThe government has since announced that there will be no further increases intaxes till 2015 and instead austerity measures of the order of EURO 1.4 Bn are proposed to meetthe 2.5% budget deficit (per GDP) target.iv

Exchange Rates

The Portuguese Escudo was the currency of Portugal until the introduction of the euro in 2002.Prior to its elimination, the exchange rate was 200.482 to one euro.

Euro exchange ratevs dollar for the last10 years

In the yearsfollowing the SingleEuropean Act, theEU liberalised itscapital markets, andthe exchange-rateregime of the euro isflexible,

or floating.Concerns that the deeply indebted nations of Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy would


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be eventually forced out of the European Union, causing it to disintegrate, led the euro to plunge20% in seven months, from a level of 1.51 in December 2009 to about 1.19 in June 2010. Arespite that led the currency retracing all its losses over the next year proved to be temporary, asa resurgence of EU break-up fears again led to a 19% slump in the euro from May 2011 to July2012.

Real Effective exchange Rate:

Real effective exchange rate is defined as a weighted average of nominal exchange ratesadjusted for relative price differential between the domestic and foreign countries, relates to the

purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. As the definition highlights, REER takes pricedifferential and inflation into account and, therefore, is said to be a better indicator of thecompetitiveness of the country in terms of exchange rates.The Real Effective exchange rate ofPortugal was rising up till 2008 and after the crisis started going down which means that the price of goods and services in Portugal started going up.

Real effective exchange rate index (2000 = 100) in Portugal

Overvalued Exchange Rates in the Euro:

A potential problem of countries in the Eurozone is that there is a danger of running a largecurrent account deficit due to a decline in competitiveness. Portugal has a current account deficitof close to 10%. This is because it doesnt have its own exchange rate to depreci ate against othercountries.

Labour market

Labour and Human Resource

OECD statisticsv reveal that Portugal had a total of 1691 average hours of work output perworker in 2012, down from a high of 1795 in 2001. This can be attributed to the restrictivelabour regulations in the country, featuring as the 6th most problematic factor for doing businessin Portugal as per the Global Competitive Index 2013-14vi.The share of workers educated to tertiary level has increased from 9.5% in 2000 to 19.8% in2012. Total labour force of Portugal now stands at 5.46 Million down from a pre-crisis high of5.58 Million in 2008vii.


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That said the current level of labour force educated to at least secondary level is 68%, well belowthe average of 75% for developed economiesviii and a major hurdle in development of serviceindustries.

Labour market Trends:1. Portugal has traditionally been a low-cost labour market, with the wage rate in the

business sector around half the euro area average. However, strong increases in themonthly minimum wage during the last decade eroded competitiveness. The minimumwage is 565.83 per month in 2014 (paid in 14 payments of 485).

2. Wage bargaining has traditionally taken place at sectoral level, with collectiveagreements extended across industries. The lasting recession has significantly weakenedthe process in the private sector (particularly banks).

Labour market Reforms:

Labour force participation rate continued to decline, sinceweak economic outlook discouraged people from stayingin the labour market. Strict employment protectionlegislation favored permanent job contracts, suggestingthat employers were reluctant to hire new staff on a permanent basis. Consequently, most hirings were done onshort-term contracts, making the labour market highlysegmented. Shortcomings in wage setting mechanism andstrong minimum wage increases in 2007-2010 contributedto a sharp rise in joblessness. Meanwhile, Portugals

unemployment insurance system was one of the most generous in the EU, providingdisincentives for unemployed persons to seek for a job.

Before the crisis Portugal had the highest protection legislation forregular workers in the OECD. In order to tackle the ensuing labourmarket segmentation, foster job creation and ease the transition ofworkers across occupations, firms and sectors, the governmenttook substantial steps in 2011 towards aligning the legislation withthat of peer countries. (Labour market Reforms)

These steps include the following (Labour Market Reforms):

1. Relaxation of the protection against individual dismissals and the reduction in severance pay


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2. Relaxation of protection against fair dismissals3. Making working hours more flexible and facilitating collective agreements at company

level.4. Wage Setting: Portugals authorit ies introduced measures to decentralize wage

determination and working conditions, so as to link wage adjustments more to firm-level

productivity, thereby giving companies more flexibility to adjust to changing marketconditions.Following the strong minimum wage increases in 2007-2010 (5.3% per year on average)and a further rise of 2.1% in 2011 (Figure 7), minimum wage increase were effectivelyfrozen with the commitment that any increase will take place only if justified byeconomic and labour markets developments.

Impact of the Labour market reforms on labour productivity and unemployment :

There are some indications that labour market reforms have improved the competitive position ofPortugal. The OECD index for the Employment protection Legislation (EPL) places Portugaleight positions lower compared to 2008. According to the European Commission BusinessSurvey, leading indicators of hiring intentions suggested that the rate of deterioration in the

intended demand for labour stabilized. As seen from the graph below, the intended demand forlabour in Portugal over the next three months showed a less dramatic contraction compared tothe one occurring particularly during the last part of 2012.

Are labour market reforms needed?:

All in all, labour market reforms are crucial to helprebalance Portugals economy and promote growth.The reforms implemented by the Portugalgovernment helped reduce the unemployment rate in2013, and that trend continues. Bouis and Duval,Economists, OECD found that relaxing employment protection legislation (EPL) could yield gains of 0.7 percentage points and 1.7 p.p. of labour productivityat 5 and 10-year horizons, respectively (Table 2).

Furthermore, reforms of unemployment benefit systems could yield a decline inunemployment of 0.8 p.p. and 1.8 p.p. at 5 and 10-year horizons, respectively


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Unemployment

The global economic slowdown along with the recession in the euro area triggered a markedincrease in job losses in Portugal. The unemployment rate for the population as a whole, at17.5% in March 2013, more than doubled since 2008.

.

Unemployment and Industrial Production:

The interesting part ingraph above is the periodin 2010 to 2012, whenunemployment rate isrising despite a rise inindustrial output. Thiswould suggest thatduring this period thehigher industrial output

was actually notachieved by growth inindustrial sector and notmuch new jobs werecreated. Rather it was just a case of industries


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going back to pre-recession levels of production by again utilizing their existing capacities tooptimum levels.Once the Euro Crisis started, industrial output again fell down severely andunemployment rate sharply increased.

Unemployment- Impact on Minimum Wages:

As we can see from the graph above, Portugal has been gradually increasing the minimum wagerates. We know that rather than helping solve the problem of unemployment, it actuallyaggravates it during bad times. Same can be seen here, as between 2008 to 2012, the minimumwages shot up, which finally increased the unemployment rate too.

Unemployment- Impact on Job Vacancies:

Job vacancies have remained stagnant for most of the recent period in Portugal, except for thesevere drop in it during the Euro crisis. Comparing the job vacancy datas movement with longterm unemployment rate, gives us an idea of short term unemployment which is caused bymarket friction rather than any structural flaws.


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Total Factor productivity growth:

The line in green depicts the TFP growth rate in Portugal.Its a worrying sign as we can see thatmostly the TFP growth rate has been actually negative for Portugal for almost a decade. Lookingat this, we can also conclude that the apparent growth in Portugal before it crashed due to excessdebts was achieved by capital infusion and not technological development.

Labor cost and Export:

With wage growth outpacing productivity, unit labor costsincreased faster than in large euro area countries in the run-up to the crisis, and Portugal steadily lost externalcompetitiveness (figure below). Insufficient competitionhas resulted in capital allocation shifting away from thetradable sector to non-tradable, further exacerbating lossesof international market shares

More recently, while unit labor costs have started tomoderate (reflecting the large cuts in real wages) andinternational market shares have begun to recover on the back of strong exports, the external adjustment alsoreflects to some extent a contraction in domestic demandand therefore imports. Further sustainable rebalancingdepends largely on the ability to boost productivity growthin all sectors of the economy.

The figure below shows the forecast that the real GDPgrowth of 0.6% will be driven by net exports andinvestments as well as turnaround in private consumption


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Conclusion

Portugal has ample scope for faster economic growth, given its below-average GDP per headcompared with the rest of the EU. However, a number of (mainly structural) factors have held back growth, and the sharp rise in credit availability in the years preceding the onset of financial

crisis obscured the need to improve productivity, with debt finance being substituted for productivity gains.

Industrial relations are expected to be strained, given that the unemployment rate remains closeto historic highs. The public sector is likely to be worse affected, given that fiscal consolidationhas a more direct impact there. Trade-union federations have been extremely active in protestingagainst government freezes on hiring and wages for civil servants. The chance of further socialunrest, demonstrations and strikes could be high, possibly with unwanted sporadic violence.

A failure to make significant improvements through further labour-market reforms could forceskilled workers to continue emigrating and could discourage others from looking for jobs at all,weakening the potential for growthThe challenge now is to persist with structural reforms so that they are given sufficient time fortheir short-term adverse impacts to be replaced by longer-term improvements to the Portuguesegrowth outlook. The political difficulty of doing this will be highlighted as soon as 2015, whenthe next general election is to be heldHowever, the country has shown tremendous progress inmanaging debt and often exceeding the targets for structural reforms in its bailout program

Bibliography

i EIU data; EIU Country Report Portugal, June 2014 iihttp://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/resources/documents/taxation/gen_info/economic_

analysis/tax_structures/country_tables/pt.pdf, accessed on 9 July 2014 iii http://www.worldwide-tax.com/portugal/portugal_tax.asp, accessed on 9 July 2014 iv http://www.portugal.gov.pt/en/the-ministries/ministry-of-finance/keep-

updated/20140415-mef-objetivos-oe-2015.aspx, accessed on 9 July 2014

v http://www.oecd-ilibrary.orgaccessed on 14 June 2014

vii WDI: World Development Indicators, The World Bank, accessed on June 14, 2014 http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---

dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_228208.pdf, accessed on June 15, 2014 Tradingeconomics.com The Economist Intelligence Unit http://www.eurobank.gr/Uploads/Reports/56_FOCUS_NOTES_PORTUGAL_LABOUR

_MARKET_REFORMS.pdf
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Portugal Economy Report

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