Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

download Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

of 15

Transcript of Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    1/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TESCO

    SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC

    RECOVERY PLAN

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    2/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 1 of 15

    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    1. INTRODUCTION ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 2

    2. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS OF SAINSBURY & TESCO FINANCIAL POSITIONS ----------------------- 2

    i. Sainsburys Financial and Competitive Position ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2

    ii. Financial AnalysisSainsbury ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5

    iii. Financial AnalysisTesco ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 7

    iv. Sainsbury SWOT Analysis ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9

    3. PROPOSED SAINSBURYS RECOVERY PLAN-------------------------------------------------------------------- 10

    i. Investment Strategies for Recovery -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10

    ii. Key Financials Underpinning Investment Strategies ------------------------------------------------------------------ 10

    iii. Resources Required to Implement Investment Strategies ------------------------------------------------------------- 11

    4. KEY FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11

    i. Summary of Sainsburys Key Financials Post Recovery ----------------------------------------------------------- 11

    ii. Impact of Investment Strategies on Sainsburys Key Financials ---------------------------------------------------- 11

    5. INVESTMENT APPRAISAL OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS --------------------------------------------------- 11

    i. Summary of Investment Strategy ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11

    ii. Investment Appraisal ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 13

    6. SOURCES OF FINANCE AND THE COST OF CAPITAL -------------------------------------------------------- 14

    i. Sainsburys Investment Funding Plan and Revised Capital Structure ---------------------------------------------- 14

    7. RISK ASSESSMENT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14

    i. Identified Risks and Impact on Sainsburys Cost of Capital--------------------------------------------------------- 14

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    3/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 2 of 15

    1. INTRODUCTION

    Sainsbury and Tesco are two largest grocery retail chains primarily operating in United Kingdom.Sainsbury, once the market leader, has gradually lost its market share to Tesco over time and Tesco

    has now emerged the market leader in grocery retail industry. In this assignment, I am required to

    analyze Sainsbury and Tescos financial and competitive positions by doing strategic and financial

    statement analysis for the last five years. On the basis of such analysis, I am required to propose a

    strategic recovery plan for Sainsbury, outlining key investment strategies to be undertaken, evaluating

    proposed investment strategies to be undertaken and identifying the risks involved therein and also

    evaluatingthe impact of such investment strategies on Sainsburys financial and competitive position.

    In this assignment, I have used various tools and techniques available for such financial and

    competitive analysis, including but not limited to Value Chain Analysis, Porters Five Forces Model,

    BCG Growth Matrix and traditional financial statement and ratio analysis. I wouldnt have been able

    to produce following structured analysis and propose recovery strategies had I not utilized such tools

    and techniques of financial and competitive analysis.

    2. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS OF SAINSBURY & TESCO FINANCIAL POSITIONS

    i. Sainsburys Financial and Competitive Position

    Over the last five years, Sainsbury has been noticeably different and lagging behind Tesco on number

    of fronts and consequently such factors had contributed towards its downfall. A summary of such

    differences is outlined below.

    Low Profitability Relative to Tesco

    Over the last five years, Sainsbury has been living on relatively low operating profit margins due to

    number of factors. Major ones are concentration on low margin products, inefficiencies in controlling

    costs and lack of value added through suppliers chain. As shown by the following graphs, Sainsbury is

    lagging behind Tesco in EBITDA margin and net profit margin.

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    4/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 3 of 15

    Such low profitability has also resulted in relatively low return on invested capital and return on equity

    ratios despite not many differences in the utilization of capital and use of leverage.

    Low Sales Growth Relative to Tesco

    Another factor that has contributed to the downfall of Sainsbury over the last few years is its low sales

    growth relative to Tesco as shown by the following graph.

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    7.0%

    8.0%

    9.0%

    2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    EBITDA Margin

    Tesco Sainsbury

    -2.0%

    -1.0%

    0.0%

    1.0%

    2.0%

    3.0%

    4.0%

    5.0%

    6.0%

    2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    EBIT Margin

    Tesco Sainsbury

    -2.0%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    Return on Invested Capital

    Tesco Sainsbury

    -5.0%

    0.0%

    5.0%

    10.0%

    15.0%

    20.0%

    2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    Return on Equity

    Tesco Sainsbury

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    5/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 4 of 15

    Despite high sales growth of Tesco in Asia, the major sales growth contribution of Tesco has come

    from UK alone. The following charts can better present the Tescos sales growth contribution story.

    A number of factors have contributed to such low sales growth of Sainsbury. The major ones are high

    payout ratios, non-responsiveness to Tescos convenient stores strategy and complacent / risk averse

    attitude towards growth strategies.

    88%

    8%

    4%

    85%

    9%

    6%

    82%

    10%

    8%

    80%

    11%

    9%

    80%

    11%9%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

    GEOGRAPHICAL SALES MIX - TESCO

    UK Rest o fEurope

    Asia

    7.8%

    2.1%2.6%

    6.4%

    2.1%2.7%

    13.3%

    2.8%

    2.5%

    7.7%

    1.4%

    1.1%

    0.0%

    2.0%

    4.0%

    6.0%

    8.0%

    10.0%

    12.0%

    14.0%

    2003 2004 2005 2006

    Tesco's Geographical Weighted Sales Growth

    TescoUK

    TescoRest ofEurope

    TescoAsia

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    6/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 5 of 15

    ii. Financial Analysis Sainsbury

    SAINSBURY

    2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    Liquidity

    Current ratio 0.74 0.55 0.47 0.30 0.20 0.68

    Acid test ratio 0.46 0.43 0.51 0.34 0.36 0.48

    Profitability

    EBITDA margin 5.9% 5.8% 6.6% 6.6% 3.8% 4.3%

    EBIT margin 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% -1.1% 1.4%

    Net profit margin 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% -1.2% 0.4%Return on invested capital 6.5% 6.1% 4.1% 3.8% -1.9% 2.0%

    Return on equity 7.2% 7.3% 5.0% 5.0% -4.5% 1.5%

    Efficiency

    Operating capital turnover 2.55 2.63 1.92 1.81 2.42 2.54

    Invested capital turnover 2.53 2.59 1.92 1.80 2.43 2.53

    Receivable turnover (days) 13 9 8 10 8 6

    Inventory turnover (days) 21 20 26 24 16 16

    Payable turnover (days) 57 57 73 69 60 58

    Growth

    Sustainable growth rate 0% 2% 2% 1% 0% 3%

    Sales growth (YoY) 0.0% 7.5% -17.8% 2.4% 5.3% 6.5%

    Earnings per share growth (YoY) 0.0% 3.6% -29.0% 2.7% -178.2% -130.9%

    Dividend per share growth (YoY) 0.0% 3.7% 4.5% 0.7% -3.7% -48.7%

    Financial Risk

    Gearing ratio 21.3% 23.3% 28.3% 32.4% 34.3% 38.5%

    Debt-equity ratio 0.27 0.30 0.39 0.48 0.52 0.62

    Interest coverage ratio 6.91 12.80 8.98 8.70 (1.95) 1.82

    Investment Ratios

    Dividend payout ratio 94% 77% 65% 76% 92% -136%

    Dividend per share (Pence) 14.19 14.72 15.38 15.49 14.92 7.66

    Earnings per share (Pence) 15.02 19.16 23.64 20.28 16.16 (5.61)

    Book value per share (Pence) 256.89 262.41 271.59 278.88 241.66 228.52

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    7/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 6 of 15

    SAINSBURY FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

    GBP Millions

    Income Statement 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    Sales (excldg. VAT) 15,954 17,154 14,104 14,440 15,202 16,061

    Cost of goods sold (13,089) (13,982) (11,386) (11,512) (12,765) (13,180)

    Gross profit 2,865 3,172 2,718 2,928 2,437 2,881

    Selling & general expenses (1,918) (2,169) (1,781) (1,981) (1,861) (2,183)

    EBITDA 947 1,003 937 947 576 698

    Depreciation & Amorization (422) (376) (398) (425) (748) (470)

    EBIT 525 627 539 522 (172) 228

    Interest expense, net (76) (49) (60) (60) (88) (125)

    Other net income 67 (5) (8) 17 22 1

    Profit before tax 516 573 471 479 (238) 104

    Taxes (157) (200) (206) (206) 51 (46)

    Net profit 359 373 265 273 (187) 58

    Items recognized directly in equity 10 (1) (4) (10) 87 (154)

    Comprehensive income b4 discont. Ops. 369 372 261 263 (100) (96)

    Discontinued operations (79) (1) 197 131 375 -

    Comprehensive income after discont. Ops. 290 371 458 394 275 (96)

    GBP Millions

    Balance Sheet 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    Cash 998 999 1,209 771 796 1,080

    Accounts receivable 563 417 310 394 319 276

    Inventories 763 751 800 753 559 576

    Other net current assets (713) (878) (1,211) (1,233) (1,237) (411)

    Total current assets 1,611 1,289 1,108 685 437 1,521

    Accounts payable (2,058) (2,200) (2,274) (2,191) (2,093) (2,094)

    Accrued liabilities (127) (140) (98) (85) (125) (154)

    Non-interest bearing current liabilities (2,185) (2,340) (2,372) (2,276) (2,218) (2,248)

    Operating working capital (574) (1,051) (1,264) (1,591) (1,781) (727)

    Gross property, plant and equipment 8,979 9,882 10,648 11,314 10,469 10,741

    Accumulated depreciation (2,764) (2,976) (3,108) (3,100) (3,393) (3,681)

    Net property, plant and equipment 6,215 6,906 7,540 8,214 7,076 7,060

    Intangible assets 278 263 226 208 203 191

    Investment properties - - - - - -

    Other net operating assets 329 412 860 1,163 773 (194)

    Operating invested capital 6,248 6,530 7,362 7,994 6,271 6,330

    Other net assets 58 93 (26) 24 (11) 23

    Total Invested Capital 6,306 6,623 7,336 8,018 6,260 6,353

    Liabilities and equity

    Interest bearing debt 1,346 1,542 2,074 2,599 2,147 2,431

    Derivatives - - - - - 12

    Interest bearing debt, adjusted 1,346 1,542 2,074 2,599 2,147 2,443

    Total shareholders' equity (incldg. Minority Int.) 4,804 4,909 5,072 5,185 4,112 3,965

    Deferred tax, net 156 172 190 234 1 (55)

    Adjusted equity 4,960 5,081 5,262 5,419 4,113 3,910

    6,306 6,623 7,336 8,018 6,260 6,353

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    8/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 7 of 15

    iii. Financial Analysis Tesco

    TESCO

    2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006ALiquidityCurrent ratio 0.57 0.62 0.61 0.66 0.62 0.66Acid test ratio 0.18 0.20 0.16 0.23 0.22 0.24

    ProfitabilityEBITDA margin 7.8% 7.8% 8.0% 8.1% 7.8% 7.7%

    EBIT margin 5.6% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%Net profit margin 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0%

    Return on invested capital 9.2% 9.2% 8.6% 9.1% 10.2% 10.7%Return on equity 13.3% 13.8% 13.4% 12.9% 14.8% 16.3%

    EfficiencyOperating capital turnover 2.48 2.38 2.14 2.29 2.46 2.62Invested capital turnover 2.40 2.31 2.09 2.24 2.39 2.53Receivable turnover (days) 6 7 9 10 8 8Inventory turnover (days) 18 18 20 18 19 18

    Payable turnover (days) 58 59 67 66 72 62

    GrowthSustainable growth rate 8% 7.9% 7.7% 7.3% 9.4% 10.3%Sales growth (YoY) 0.0% 12.7% 9.9% 18.5% 9.9% 6.5%Earnings per share growth (YoY) 0.0% 14.1% 10.1% 9.8% 21.2% 15.6%Dividend per share growth (YoY) 0.0% 13.7% 9.8% 9.8% 3.6% 10.8%

    Financial RiskGearing ratio 38.1% 41.3% 43.2% 37.8% 35.6% 37.5%Debt-equity ratio 0.62 0.70 0.76 0.61 0.55 0.60

    Interest coverage ratio 9.33 8.64 8.24 7.78 14.40 17.31

    Investment RatiosDividend payout ratio 47% 47% 47% 47% 40% 38%Dividend per share (Pence) 4.90 5.58 6.12 6.72 6.96 7.71Earnings per share (Pence) 10.40 11.87 13.37 12.30 15.67 16.89

    Book value per share (Pence) 78.13 85.87 97.60 111.48 117.38 123.53

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    9/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 8 of 15

    TESCO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

    GBP Millions

    Income Statement 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    Sales (excldg. VAT) 20,988 23,653 26,004 30,814 33,866 39,454

    Cost of goods sold (16,877) (19,006) (20,773) (24,471) (25,296) (29,686)

    Gross profit 4,111 4,647 5,231 6,343 8,570 9,768

    Selling & general expenses (2,469) (2,791) (3,143) (3,854) (5,935) (6,740)

    EBITDA 1,642 1,856 2,088 2,489 2,635 3,028

    Depreciation & Amorization (476) (534) (604) (754) (734) (829)

    EBIT 1,166 1,322 1,484 1,735 1,901 2,199

    Interest expense, net (125) (153) (180) (223) (132) (127)

    Other net income 7 19 36 59 123 159

    PBT 1,048 1,188 1,340 1,571 1,892 2,231

    Taxes (327) (358) (394) (469) (539) (645)

    Net profit 721 830 946 1,102 1,353 1,586

    Items recognized directly in equity - - 22 (157) (127) (243)

    Comprehensive income b4 discont. Ops. 721 830 968 945 1,226 1,343

    Discontinued operations - - - - (6) (10)

    Comprehensive income after discont. Ops. 721 830 968 945 1,220 1,333

    Balance Sheet 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A

    Cash 534 670 638 1,100 1,146 1,325

    Accounts receivable 322 454 662 840 769 892

    Inventories 838 929 1,140 1,199 1,309 1,464

    Other current assets - - - - - -

    Total current assets 1,694 2,053 2,440 3,139 3,224 3,681

    Accounts payable (2,684) (3,061) (3,799) (4,456) (4,974) (5,083)

    Accrued liabilities (292) (259) (230) (308) (224) (464)

    Non-interest bearing current liabilities (2,976) (3,320) (4,029) (4,764) (5,198) (5,547)

    Operating working capital (1,282) (1,267) (1,589) (1,625) (1,974) (1,866)

    Gross property, plant and equipment 12,683 14,510 16,625 18,197 18,545 20,270

    Accumulated depreciation (3,103) (3,478) (3,797) (4,103) (4,024) (4,388)

    Net property, plant and equipment 9,580 11,032 12,828 14,094 14,521 15,882

    Intangible assets 154 154 890 965 1,408 1,525

    Investment properties - - - - 565 745

    Other net operating assets - - - - (735) (1,211)

    Operating invested capital 8,452 9,919 12,129 13,434 13,785 15,075

    Other net assets 304 317 312 328 396 528

    Total Invested Capital 8,756 10,236 12,441 13,762 14,181 15,603

    Liabilities and equity

    Interest bearing debt 3,340 4,230 5,377 5,200 5,045 5,388

    Derivatives - - - - - 463

    Interest bearing debt, adjusted 3,340 4,230 5,377 5,200 5,045 5,851

    Total shareholders' equity (incldg. Minority Int.) 5,014 5,566 6,559 7,990 8,654 9,444

    Deferred tax, net 402 440 505 572 482 308

    Adjusted equity 5,416 6,006 7,064 8,562 9,136 9,752

    8,756 10,236 12,441 13,762 14,181 15,603

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    10/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 9 of 15

    iv. Sainsbury SWOT Analysis

    Strengths

    Brand recognition Quality products Presence in USA Presence in banking sector

    Weaknesses

    Non availability of non-food products Product range attracting few

    communities

    Few stores at convenient locations Relatively high prices of various products Limited presence out of UK Lack of strategic alliance with suppliers Substandard sales growth Inefficiencies in expense control Concentration on low margin products Non-responsiveness to competitors

    strategies

    Opportunities

    Roll out new products Enter into new markets Cater to needs of all communities Invest in technology to reduce operational

    cost

    Threats

    Losing sales to competitors Flight of key personnel due to low

    growth

    Entrance of foreign retail chains in UK

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    11/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 10 of 15

    3. PROPOSED SAINSBURYS RECOVERY PLAN

    i. Investment Strategies for Recovery

    On the basis of above mentioned financial and competitive analysis, I suggest the following strategiesfor the recovery of Sainsbury.

    Plan A: Opening of new small (convenient) stores at various locations throughout UK

    Plan B: Entering into new markets like Pakistan, China, India, Brazil and Russia where populationgrowth along with economic growth is high and one can capture the first mover

    advantage.

    Plan C: Rolling out new product stream of big ticket and high margin items and launchingproducts that catered to the needs of various communities in UK to attract newcustomers.

    ii. Key Financials Underpinning Investment Strategies

    Plan A: No. of stores to be opened 1,500

    Sales per store per annum .. GBP 7.5 million

    Operating profit margin. 3.5%

    Fixed Capital Investment per store GBP 1.5 million

    Plan B: Total no. of stores to be opened 100 (20 stores in each country)

    Sales per store per annum... GBP 20 million

    Operating profit margin. 4.5%

    Fixed Capital Investment per store GBP 4 million

    Plan C: Increase in sales per annum... GBP 2 million

    Operating profit margin 10.5%

    Fixed Capital Investment GBP 0.5 million

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    12/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 11 of 15

    iii. Resources Required to Implement Investment Strategies

    Total financial resources required to implement Plan A, Plan B and Plan C is GBP 2,650.5 million.Plan A requires an initial investment of GBP 2,250 million, Plan B requires an initial investment of

    GBP 400 million, whereas Plan C requires an investment of GBP 0.5 million. Since the target debtratio (gearing) is set at 40pc keeping in perspective financial flexibility and risk appetite, all

    incremental resources are financed in the ratio of 40% debt and 60% equity.

    4. KEY FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS

    i. Summary ofSainsburys KeyFinancials Post Recovery

    After implementing the plans A, B and C, Sainsbury key financial would be as follows:

    Sales growth... 82.5%

    EBIT Margin.......... 2.4%

    Net Profit Margin... 1.1%

    ii. Impact of Investment Strategieson Sainsburys Key Financials

    By implementing investment plans A, B and C, Sainsburys profitability has improved a lot andsales growth has achieved a significant mark of 82%. Such phenomenal growth, though not

    sustainable over the long run, yet, such growth would put Sainsbury on the route of recovery.

    5. INVESTMENT APPRAISAL OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS

    i. Summary of Investment Strategy

    Plan A: Since Sainsbury started to struggle and losing its market share when Tesco adopted theaggressive growth strategy of building convenient stores throughout UK, it is vital for Sainsbury tobecome more competitive and follow the same strategy of convenient stores to get advantage ofeconomies of scale that Tesco is enjoying currently.

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    13/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 12 of 15

    I suggest that Sainsbury establish 1,500 new convenient stores to attract new customers and to put itssales on a growth trajectory. Further details of the plan are as follows:

    Sales per store per annum .. GBP 7.5 million

    Operating profit margin. 3.5%

    Fixed Investment per store GBP 1.5 million

    Plan B: It is vital for Sainsbury to try new markets and capture the benefits of first mover advantage. Isuggest that Sainsbury invest in markets like Pakistan, India, China, Brazil and Russia wherepopulation and economic growth shows an uptrend. Further details of the plan are as follows:

    Total no. of stores to be opened 100 (20 stores in each country)

    Sales per store per annum... GBP 20 million

    Operating profit margin. 4.5%

    Fixed Capital Investment per store GBP 4 million

    Plan C:Another major factor that is affecting Sainsbury is its low profitability that results in relativelylow profit margins and low return on investments. I suggest Sainsbury launch new products that are

    big ticket and high margin items and bring in products that cater to the needs of other communities inUK. Further details of the plan are as follows:

    Increase in sales per annum... GBP 2 million

    Operating profit margin 10.5%

    Fixed Capital Investment GBP 0.5 million

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    14/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Page 13 of 15

    ii. Investment Appraisal

    Plan A:NPV @ 10.0% p.a.APPRAISAL DATE: 31-Dec-06

    OPTION NUMBER & TITLE: Plan A - Opening 1,500 Convenient Stores in UK

    GBP Mil

    CAPITAL COSTS Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan A 2,250- 2,2-

    A. Total Capital Costs (Annual) 2,250- - - - - - - - - - - 2,2-

    CURRENT COSTS Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan A 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 54,2-

    C. Total Revenue Costs (Annual) - 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 10,856- 108,5-

    INCOME Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan A 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 56,2

    G. Total Income - 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 11,250 112,5

    NPV CALCULATION Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Net Undiscounted Cash Flow 2,250- 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 394 2-

    DISCOUNT FACTOR @ 10% p.a. 1.000 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.564 0.513 0.467 0.424 0.386

    ANNUAL NET PRESENT VALUE 2,250- 358 325 296 269 244 222 202 184 167 152 7-

    TOTAL NET PRESENT VALUE = 169

    Plan B:NPV @ 10.0% p.a.

    APPRAISAL DATE: 31-Dec-06

    OPTION NUMBER & TITLE: Plan B - Opening 100 New Stores in China, India, Pakistan, Brazil and Russia

    GBP Mill

    CAPITAL COSTS Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan B 400- 4-

    A. Total Capital Costs (Annual) 400- - - - - - - - - - - 4-

    CURRENT COSTS Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan B 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 9,5-

    C. Total Revenue Costs (Annual) - 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 1,910- 19,1-

    INCOME Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan B 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 10,0

    G. Total Income - 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 20,0

    NPV CALCULATION Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Net Undiscounted Cash Flow 400- 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90 90

    DISCOUNT FACTOR @ 10% p.a. 1.000 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.564 0.513 0.467 0.424 0.386

    ANNUAL NET PRESENT VALUE 400- 82 74 68 61 56 51 46 42 38 35 -

    TOTAL NET PRESENT VALUE = 153

  • 8/2/2019 Portfolio 238664 Sainsburys Recovery Plan

    15/15

    SAINSBURY Vs TECSO - SAINSBURYS STRATEGIC RECOVERY PLAN

    Plan C:NPV @ 10.0% p.a.

    APPRAISAL DATE: 31-Dec-06

    OPTION NUMBER & TITLE: Plan C - Launching Big Ticket and High Margin Items

    GBP Mill

    CAPITAL COSTS Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan C 1- -

    -

    -

    A. Total Capital Costs (Annual) 1- - - - - - - - - - - -

    CURRENT COSTS Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan C 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- -

    -

    -

    C. Total Revenue Costs (Annual) - 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- 2- -

    INCOME Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Plan C 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -

    -

    G. Total Income - 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

    NPV CALCULATION Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 TOTA

    Net Undiscounted Cash Flow 1- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    DISCOUNT FACTOR @ 10% p.a. 1.000 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.564 0.513 0.467 0.424 0.386

    ANNUAL NET PRESENT VALUE 1- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

    TOTAL NET PRESENT VALUE = 1

    6. SOURCES OF FINANCE AND THE COST OF CAPITAL

    i. Sainsburys Investment Funding Plan and Revised Capital Structure

    Total investment required to implement Plans A, B and C is GBP 2,650.5 million. Since 40% is to befinanced with debt and rest with equity, I dont suggest change in capital structure of Sainsbury as Ibelieve target debt ratio of 40% is in line with financial flexibility and risk appetite of Sainsbury.

    7. RISK ASSESSMENT

    i. Identified Risks and Impact onSainsburys Cost of Capital

    With high growth comes risk. Since Sainsbury is investing in emerging markets, it is exposed to more risks thanpreviously. Specifically, it will be exposed to political risk, credit risk, event risk, exchange rate risk and legalrisk. The impact of such risks on Sainsbury would be an increase of its equity beta among investors andconsequently a rise in cost of capital to compensate for additional risks.