PORT MORESBY TCWC 2014-2016 RECENT AND CURRENT … · SMART MET (Finish Met. ... multi-hazard early...
Transcript of PORT MORESBY TCWC 2014-2016 RECENT AND CURRENT … · SMART MET (Finish Met. ... multi-hazard early...
PORT MORESBY TCWC 2014-2016 RECENT AND
CURRENT ACTIVITIES
16th RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee Meeting
Honiara, Solomon Islands, 29 August – 02 September 2016
Mr. Jimmy GOMOGA
ASSISTANT DIRECTOR
FORECASTING & WARNING CENTRE
PH: +675 324 4583
FAX: +675 325 5544
Mobile: +675 6812484
EMAIL: [email protected]
Presented by
Introduction
• Recent and Current Activities
• RIMES Sub Regional Hub
• Summary & Conclusions
RECENT & CURRENT
ACTIVITIES
Seasonal & Monthly Variation of
Tropical Cyclones
• On the average, PNG receives one tropical
cyclone a season
• Many of these have occurred in Jan/
February
• 2002: TC Upia late in the season, May -
June
• 2007: TC Guba early in the season, Nov
• 2014: TC Ita named at 10pm on 5 April 2014
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Fre
qu
en
cy o
f T
rop
ical
Cyclo
nes
Months
Monthly Variation of Tropical Cyclones - 1992/93 - 2015/16
Monthly Total
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Nu
mb
er
of
Tro
pic
al C
yclo
nes
Season
Seasonal Variation of Tropical Cyclones - 1992/93 - 2015/16
Seasonal Total
Seasonal Average
Past Disasters Related to
Weather & Climate • 1997/98 El Nino – Major Drought, Migration,
Wakeup call to take note!
• 2007 TC Guba – Flooding, over 200 deaths,
Bridges, roads and houses washed away, 145,000
people affected, Estimated Cost: $US71.4 million.
• 2012 Gale Warning for Vitiaz Strait was issued 5
days before the sinking of Rabaul Queen which
claimed more than 300 lives. Commission of Inquiry
and Court Case, NWS was cleared.
• April 2014: TC Ita, 54, 414 people affected, no
deaths, Estimated Cost: $US 10 million.
• March 2015: TC Nathan, West New Britain Flooding
and destruction of Oil Palms, $US Several Millions.
TC Nathan: March 2015
Forecasting Tools Available Satellite Images (IR, Microwave, VIS)
Available Numerical Models (BOM, 12k, 70 levels)
Near real time observations from satellites – Himawari 8
RANET, EMWIN, LRIT (Microwave prod.)
Real time observations from Observations network
SMART MET (Finish Met. Service) – Operational in 2014, Weather Forecasting and Risk Mapping Tools – Uses GFS data
SCOPIC – Statistical Model Climate Predictions (BOM)
RIMES WRF (9km) rainfall and temperature forecasts up to 10 days
Communications PNGNWS continues to use TELIKOM Systems (Fiber
Link, unlimited, 2MBPS uplink and downlink), however,
getting the information from and to the remote locations
continue to be a challenge.
EMWIN system, probably the only one still operating in
the Pacific has been maintained and continues to
operate well since installation. The Dish has grown
rusty and requires replacing and system upgraded for
two way communications (downlink and uplink).
PNGNWS do not have these RANET/ Chattee Beetle
systems set up yet. There have been some site testing
and RANET Dish setup, but no further progress has
been made.
HF Radios, PNGNWS continues to use these as
backup systems to the main Telikom telephone/ fax
lines. Again PNGNWS look forward to opportunities to
have these systems upgraded to HF email.
PNGNWS had VSAT communication link into Hawaii
Communications Portal and the system worked very
well, however, local ISP representing the Hawaii
Communications Portal switch to mobile carrier within
the country the dish was turned off. Plans are under
way to have this system upgraded for the end to end
multi-hazard early warning system and the RIMES Sub
Regional Hub for the Pacific.
LRIT has been turned off and awaiting system upgrades,
In the meantime Goes DCS system user Agreement is
been completed for PNGNWS.
PNG has installed five (5) AWS's, however;
communication continues to be a major challenge in
getting the information back to the Headquarters in Port
Moresby. The SIM Card option needs continuous top up to
maintain the mobile link. Second option is through
Satellite; however, the access to these servers where the
data is stored continues to be a challenge and requires
clearance.
PNGNWS communications systems are upgraded to have
independent broadband communications link for the
Nation's Capital in Port Moresby and have terminals
located within key technical agencies (NDC, Geohazards,
and Hydrology) which are under different Departments.
Under the Recurrent Budget the fiber link was upgraded to
2mbps. PNG Government allocated some funding and
Communications and Data Centre projects were initiated .
The Rabaul Queen Court Case is continuing and PNG
National Weather Service was summoned to give
evidence in June 2016. Verdict is yet to be served.
WMO Information System (WIS) PNG Communication & Data Centre Project
Solutions Phase 1: Wireless Broadband for POM (Cost of equipments: USD $ 0.82M)
10
Phase 1: Wireless Broadband for PoM
FM
Radio
Others
TPNG
Network
Center
Fiber
Network
abroad
Server
Submarine
Network
TPNG
Network
Center
Existing Network
Weather
Service
News
Paper
EMTV
News
Paper
EMTVWeather
Service
FM
Radio
Others
Fiber
Network
eLTE Wireless Broadband Network
eLTE Site
Site 2
Terminal
Advantage:1. From Internet to Private network, less nodes, high reliability.
2. From campus network to Wireless Broadband, low latency, high capacity.
3. Flexible expansion, easy for adding receiver sites.
11
Phase 1: Deployment Plan
1. Need to rent the Fiber link, sites facility include tower, power from TPNG.
2. Detail design and Cost should be after the site survey.
3. Frequency Suggestion: 450M, 1.8G
NO. Item QTY
1 eLTE Base Station &
Core network
2
2 eLTE Outdoor
Terminal with WIFI
function
20
3 Switch, Router &
Firewall
4
4 50M Carrier Leased
Line
1
5 Site facility
Rent(Tower, Power)
1
6 Frequency acquisition
Notes:
Phase 2: Container Data Center Solution (Cost of equipments: USD $ 1.58M)
5
Fire fighting
systemPower supply
system
Cooling
system
Cabling
system
Management
system
Container
system
Rack
systemContainer:Standard 20ft shipping container
Rack:One container support 4 IT racks
Cooling:Precious AC, 2+1backup
UPS: 20kVA*3, 2+1 redundancy (30KVA for IT, 10KVA for auxiliary )
Battery: 10 mins
Power:Total 24kW
Density: 6kW/rack(rated)
Phase 2: Container Data Center Solution
6
Main Data Center Disaster Recovery Data Center
Business network
Backup networkIP network
Blade Servers
Fiber Connection
SAN SAN
Huawei E9000
Servers
Huawei
S5500 V3
Fusion Sphere
vCenter ServervCenter Server
Huawei Fusion SphereStorage
Replication
Switch Switch
Operator1
Operator2
DMZExisting Network
Storage
Solution Topology
8
Phase 3: National 14 Branch Offices Communication System and Security Solution
Office Area
Data Center
Area
National Meteorological
Center(NMC)Data Collection Site (14)
Domestic Partners
USG6370 USG6320
USG6330
IPSec VPN
AntiDDoSWorld Meteorological
Center(WMC)
Solution
Add Anti DDOS and antivirus (AV)
isolation at borders for Internet
security.
IPSec VPN for the connection of
NMC, data collection sites and
domestic Partners.
Unified network security
Management in the NMC.
Solution Values
Private VPN networks are isolated
securely.
The solution prevents viruses
professionally and effectively.
The solution controls the range of
security events effectively.
The solution upgrades
vulnerabilities and patches with
unified management.
eSight Network
Manager
FM
Radio
Others
News
Paper
EMTV
AR22002*AR3200
Phase 3: National 14 Branch Offices Communication System and Security Solution (USD $ 1.12 M)
Summary of Project Costs Project phases Quotation
Phase 1 eLTE 0.82 M USD
Phase 2 Container Data Center 1.58 M USD
Phase 3 14 Branch Offices Communication System and
Security Solution
1.12 M USD
ICT Training 1.45 M USD
Sub-Total 4.97 M USD
10% 0.497 USD
Total Quotation 5.47 M USD
Status of the Project DOT Secretary has approved and signed instruments (Mini-
Contract) to engaged Huawei and for NMSA to release 10% of
K18M, promised Government Funding. Only K200, 000.00 has
been paid to the contractor.
Phase 2 in progress with 41% of stage 1: Data Centre completed.
Budget: 6.3% of the planned Budget has been allocated.
RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the
Pacific
Background
5th RIMES Council Meeting, 18 June 2012, New Delhi:
Member States to engage with and facilitate the integration of
other countries into RIMES
Papua New Guinea for the Southwest Pacific region
7th RIMES Council Meeting, 9 July 2015, New Delhi:
Decentralization of RIMES program implementation through sub-
regional mechanisms
2nd RIMES Ministerial Conference, 10 July 2015, New Delhi:
Declared to pursue Papua New Guinea’s proposal
Background contd.
Papua New Guinea’s National Executive Council, 6 August 2015:
Approved PNG’s hosting of the RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for
the Pacific Region
Committed about USD 350,000 to establish a facility to function
as the Hub
Geohazards Management Division and National Weather Service
meeting with RIMES, 29 Nov – 1 Dec 2015
Detailed the features, technical design, and capacity
requirements of the Sub-Regional Hub
Prepared an action plan for establishing the RIMES Sub-
Regional Hub for the Pacific, which shall also function as
Papua New Guinea’s Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center
Background contd.
Papua New Guinea Multi-Hazard Early Warning Center and RIMES
Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific is envisioned to have the
following operational units:
Geological Services: earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption,
landslide
Ocean, Weather and Climate Services: ocean state, extreme
weather, climate variability and change
Hydrological Services: flash flood, riverine flood, storm surge,
rain-induced landslide
Drought and Bushfires
Observation Systems Services
ICT Applications
Societal Applications
Program Support and Administration
Background contd.
Key functions as RIMES Sub-Regional Hub for the Pacific:
Facilitate identification of EWS gaps and needs of countries in the region that
need external assistance for addressing
Facilitate establishment and maintenance of observing and monitoring
networks in the countries
Downscale RIMES products to make them relevant to the countries
Customize RIMES tools according to national and local contexts
Research and development for delivery of cutting edge technologies
Build capacity of warning information generators on new products and tools
Build capacity of users on application of new products and tools
Monitor and evaluate effectiveness of capacity building activities, and asses
residual gaps
Convene and report to the RIMES Sub-Regional Council on program status
Periodic reporting to the RIMES Council
RIMES Assessment Mission 15-19
August 2015, Papua New Guinea 1) Identified existing facilities and support services for establishing the
facility
2) Engaged with Government departments/ agencies that will be
participating to form the multi-disciplinary Multi-Hazard Early Warning
Center
3) Detailed the mechanism for staffing the Center and Sub-Regional Hub
4) Undertook preliminary capacity assessments for providing geological,
ocean, weather, climate, hydrological, and observation system services
5) Undertook preliminary capacity assessments in ICT and societal
applications, for bridging science-based information providers and users
6) Updated the action plan for establishing the Multi-Hazard Early Warning
Center and Sub-Regional Hub
RIMES Sub-Regional Hub System Design Flow
RIMES Sub-Regional Hub System Design
RIMES Data Management • ECMWF
• NCMRWF
• NCEP
• UK Met
• GiZ
• IRIS, USGS
• Solomon Islands
• Fiji
• Vanuatu
• Tonga
• Samoa
• Cyclone tracks
• Event database
Earthquake and Climate Data Receive/Retrieve from Centers
Data at different timescales
Processing
Downscale (high resolution)
Customize for country
Disseminate daily
Analysis
Model performance evaluation
Calibration
Observation Data Receive continuously from countries
Manual Station observation
Automatic weather station
Processed Observation for Analysis
Quality check
Missing data management
Regularly updated land use/demographic data
Observation Data Useful for
Model verification (Forecast vs reality)
Model forecast improvement
Through observation data assimilation
Long term climate analysis
Trend
Extremes
Disaster Data Historical track information
Disaster event database
Incident report
Loss and Damage
Extent of Impact
Risk analysis
Warning formulation
Decision Support Systems and
Web based warning
Dissemination system
Tsunami and Hydro-met
ShakeCast@RIMES
• 11, November 2012 ThabeikKyin
Event Scenario earthquake
simulation by DMH after added 3
cities building data
Map View in DMH-Shakecast
ShakeCast customized for
Myanmar
ShakeCast @ RIMES
INSPIRE: a computer based, tsunami propagation and risk assessment tool
Evaluates:
Tsunami arrival time
Tsunami amplitude
Tsunami risk
Output:
Inundation map
building collapse
damage ratio (human)
Estimation of potential damage level
INSPIRE Tsunami hazard and risk assessment tool
ESCAPE: a tool for computing the shelter accessibility and planning
evacuation
Helps for evacuation planning:
Where to go?
safest and fastest route
available time
shelter capacity
Basic requirement :
Building inventory (from observations),
hazard map (inundation height), obtained from numerical
analysis
Vulnerability function (from past experience)
Zoning (probability of damage/loss)
Outputs:
Evacuation basin and direction to the shelters
Required evacuation time
ESCAPE Evacuation modeling tool
Flash Flood Warning System
Finding rainfall intensity-
duration thresholds that
have initiated flash floods
in the area
Developing real time and
forecast rainfall database
Developing web-based
system to generate and
disseminate flash flood
advisory
Seasonal Outlook
ECMWF seasonal
forecast (rainfall and
temperature) as input
Conceptual rainfall-
runoff model (e.g.
IHACRES CWI)
employed after
calibration and validation
Discharge forecasted at
Hardinge Bridge
(Ganges) and
Bahadurabad
(Brahmaputra)
Climate Data analysis
Feasibility Studies for Irrigation ProjectRimess | Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand | 2015
Agro-met Advisory
38
Feasibility Studies for Irrigation ProjectRimess | Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand | 2015
Bulletin
Agro-met bulletin
includes rainfall and
other derived agro-
met parameters from
ECMWF forecast.
Also generate
automatically a
advisory of 10 days
outlook based on
these parameters
39
Public health
Energy
Ongoing Research
Transform the weather information to a automated
advisory system.
Using pattern based analysis to generate advisory
Use of statistical methods to train the model for past
and generate forecast for the future
Data requirement is huge
Public health data, weather data, other relevant data sets
related to proper training of the model
Ongoing Research
RIMES SUB HUB PROPOSED SITE
Spectrum of Hazards
Heavy Rain, Thunderstorms, Frosts, Hail
Storms, Floods, Tropical Cyclones, Drought
Marine Warnings – Strong Winds, Gales,
High Seas, Coastal Inundations
Strong wind and Gale Warnings during Dry
Season Months (June & July) and Wet Season
Months (February & March)
Tsunami, Earthquakes, Volcanoes, Bush
Fire
Summary In 2014/2015 season Tropical Cyclone
Nathan with combined but indirect effect from other systems, TC Pam east of Nathan, Typhoon Bavi across the equator near Guam and Olywn in the eastern Indian Ocean enhanced northwest monsoon surges across Papua New Guinea.
The Port Moresby TCWC issued storm wind warnings for Central, Milne Bay and West New Britain. There was substantial damage of Oil Palms costing several millions of dollars in the West New Britain Province.
These combined systems also enhanced the El Nino conditions to be established across the Pacific.
In 2015/2016 season, there were no tropical cyclone activity in Port Moresby’s area of responsibility, however, several Gale warning were issued during the peak of the SE Trade season (June – August).
During the period 2014-2016, number of installations took place; the Himawari 8/9 Satellite Receiving system became operation in February 2016 and under the Recurrent Budget Funding, Internet link was upgraded to 2mbps.
The Government released some funding to address the Rabaul Queen Inquiry Recommendations and PNG National Weather Service has started upgrading its Communications and Data Centre facilities. LRIT, RANET, Chattee Beetle and HF email options to be considered for last mile remote communications.
Preliminary Assessment has been completed by RIMES for establishment of country’s multi-hazard early warning centre and the RIMES Sub Regional Hub for the Pacific in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Under WMO WIS framework the establishment of RIMES Sub Regional Hub will increase the status of Papua New Guinea from being a National Centre (NC) to Data Collection Product Centre (DCPC).
THANK YOU!