Population trends in Europe and their impact on the retail ... · Demographic AgingDemographic...

June 18, 2008Rainer Münz

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"Population trends in Europe and their "Population trends in Europe and their "Population trends in Europe and their "Population trends in Europe and their impact on the retail insurance business" impact on the retail insurance business" impact on the retail insurance business" impact on the retail insurance business"

Rainer Rainer Rainer Rainer MuenMuenMuenMuenzzzz

Erste Group, ViennaErste Group, ViennaErste Group, ViennaErste Group, Vienna

European Congress of European Congress of European Congress of European Congress of

Mutual Mutual Mutual Mutual & & & & CooperativeCooperativeCooperativeCooperative InsuranceInsuranceInsuranceInsurance

Helsinki, June 18, 2008Helsinki, June 18, 2008Helsinki, June 18, 2008Helsinki, June 18, 2008

2 Rainer MuenzHelsinki, June 18, 2008

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Population Population Population Population TodayTodayTodayToday


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EU27+4

EU27 Total Population: 497 million- EU15 („old“ MS) 395 million- EU12 („new“ MS) 102 million

Other EEA+CH 12 million

EU27+4 509 million

Foreign-born population 43 million

- Foreign-born (in%) 8.5%

European Union + European Union + European Union + European Union + AssocAssocAssocAssoc. Countries. Countries. Countries. Countries


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Common Trends Common Trends Common Trends Common Trends and regional and regional and regional and regional

differencesdifferencesdifferencesdifferences


ERSTE GROUPTheTheTheThe European European European European casecasecasecase

Common trends

• Low number of children

• High and growing life expectancy

• Demographic aging

• High immigration


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• Lowest number of children per family ever recorded in history

• Below replacement levels

• Development leads to excess of deaths over births

• Shrinking native populations

NumberNumberNumberNumber of of of of ChildrenChildrenChildrenChildren in Europein Europein Europein Europe

xxx


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Children per woman, 2005Children per woman, 2005Children per woman, 2005Children per woman, 2005

NumberNumberNumberNumber of of of of ChildrenChildrenChildrenChildren in Europein Europein Europein Europe



Common trends






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Highest life expectancy ever recordedin history

• Constant growth sincethe mid-19th century

• No signs of slow down in Western Europe

• High potential for catch-up in Central and Eastern Europe

Life Life Life Life expectancyexpectancyexpectancyexpectancy in Europein Europein Europein Europe


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Life Life Life Life expectancyexpectancyexpectancyexpectancy at at at at birthbirthbirthbirth in Europe, in Europe, in Europe, in Europe, 2004, 2004, 2004, 2004, malesmalesmalesmales


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Life Life Life Life expectancyexpectancyexpectancyexpectancy at at at at birthbirthbirthbirth in Europe, in Europe, in Europe, in Europe, 2004, 2004, 2004, 2004, femalesfemalesfemalesfemales



Common trends






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• Not a biological process

• But a shift from the younger to theolder age groups


• Increasing life expectancy

Both contribute to population aging in

Europe

DemographicDemographicDemographicDemographic AgingAgingAgingAging


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EU 27: Aging in Europe

3 0

3 2

3 4

3 6

3 8

4 0

4 2

4 4

4 6

4 8

5 0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

M e d ia n A g e A ve r a g e A g e

Source: Eurostat; EU Comm 2007


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EU 27: Aging in Europe

3 0

3 2

3 4

3 6

3 8

4 0

4 2

4 4

4 6

4 8

5 0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050




ERSTE GROUPEU 27: Aging in Europe

3 0

3 2

3 4

3 6

3 8

4 0

4 2

4 4

4 6

4 8

5 0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050





Common trends

• Low fertility


• Demographic ageing



ERSTE GROUPImmigration

• Foreign-born population in EU27:

43 million

• Of them:

14 million from other EU countries

27 million from third countries

• Immigration fromother Europe, MENA, sub-Saharan Africa, Lat. America, South Asia


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Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin

NetNetNetNet----Migration in Europe,Migration in Europe,Migration in Europe,Migration in Europe,2000200020002000----2005 (per 1000 inhabitants)2005 (per 1000 inhabitants)2005 (per 1000 inhabitants)2005 (per 1000 inhabitants)

.

-2 to 00 to +2

+2 to +5

over -5

-5 to -2

over +5


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Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; Darstellung: Humboldt-Universität Berlin

Stock of Migrants in Europe,Stock of Migrants in Europe,Stock of Migrants in Europe,Stock of Migrants in Europe,2005200520052005 (in % of total population)(in % of total population)(in % of total population)(in % of total population)

.

5 to 10%0 to 5%

over 15%

10 to 15%


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Population Change in 2007Population Change in 2007Population Change in 2007Population Change in 2007


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Europe in 2007Europe in 2007Europe in 2007Europe in 2007

abcd

Western and Central Europe (EU27/EEA/CH) in 2007

• Total population growth: +2.3 million

• of which: 85% from net migration

• 24 out of 31 countries (EU27/EEA/CH)had a net gain from migration

• 10 out of 31 countries (EU27/EEA/CH) had more deaths than births


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ChallengesChallengesChallengesChallenges and and and and OpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunitiesOpportunities


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Growing customer groups:

• Generation 50+

• Urban + sub-urban population

• Migrant population

• Mobile Europeans



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Changing needs

• Securing old age income in addition to mandatory 1st pillar pensions

• Portability of health and pensionbenefits

• Long-term care



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Main questions:

• Do we have the appropriate products?

• Do we use the right sales channels?

• Do we have a well prepared salesforce?



ERSTE GROUPExamplesExamplesExamplesExamples

• Life insurance and pension plans forall ages

• Reverse mortgages

• Health and pension insurance formobile Europeans and non-Europeans

• Sales force 50 and older

• Sales force with migrant background


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Our main customersof tomorrow


ERSTE GROUP

Our customers of tomorrow


ERSTE GROUPContactContactContactContact

[email protected]

Population trends in Europe and their impact on the retail ... · Demographic AgingDemographic...

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