Population Studies

Why study Population?

• How land is used

• The amount of pressure on natural resources

• PLANNING – how govt formulate policies

• How people interact with one another

In 1999, 600 million children in the world lived in poverty – 50 million more than in 1990

United Nations

World’s Population Trend

Regional Population Trend

Population Explosion

Until about 200 years ago, population growth was slow.

Since then, there had been an enormous increase (previous graph).

Population Explosion: sudden and great increase in world’s population.

Rate of increase has become exponential. Check out the world population clock at

http://www.ibiblio.org/lunarbin/worldpop

World Population at 2008

6.7 billion

7.2 billion in 2014

Source: The Straits Times (11 Jul 2008)

Top 10 countries with largest population (millions) – 2008

1. China 1330.02. India 1148.03. U.S 303.84. Indonesia 237.55. Brazil 191.96. Pakistan 167.87. Bangladesh 153.58. Nigeria 146.39. Russia 140.710. Japan 127.3

Source: The Straits Times (11 Jul 2008)

Terminologies• Birth rate (BR)

– Number of live births per 1000 people in the population per year

– X per thousand– What are the reasons for low and high BR?

• Death rate (DR)– Number of deaths per 1000 people in the population

per year– Y per thousand– What are the reasons for high and low DR?

Terminologies Infant Mortality (IM)

Number of infants who die before reaching one year of age per 1000 live births per year

Natural increase (NI)/rate of natural increase

• NI = BR – DR (per thousand)• NI is +ve means …• NI is –ve means …

Terminologies Replacement level

– It is the level of fertility at which a given population is replacing itself

Life expectancy (LE)– No of years a person is expected to live from

time to time Dependency Ratio

o the ratio of the number of economically non-active to the number of economically active people in the country

o 1 : 2 means …1 : 5 means …Implications …?

Birth Rate and Death Rate (per day)

• In one day all over the world, an estimated 369,755 people are born and 150,835 die.

• 218,920 people are added to the global population daily

Source: The Straits Times (11 Jul 2008)

Causes

• High BR - Parents want children– for labour especially in agricultural societies– to look after them in old age– to continue the family name– for added status in the community – to replace children who have died (high

infant mortality rate)

Causes

• Low DR– clean water is available– access to food supply– improve hygiene and sanitation– better vaccinations and healthcare– rising standards of living

How long are you expected to live?

Total Population Change

TOTAL POPULATION CHANGE

Birth Rate

Death Rate

Immigration

Emigration

Population Growth = natural increase + net migration

Factors that influence natural increase

1) Standard of living

• medical facilities, health care

• housing

• hygiene

• water supply

• sanitation and nutrition

Factors that influence natural increase

2. Cultural factors

• way of living, customs and beliefs

• role of children, religion

• region of the world (developed vs. under-developed)

3. Government policies

• increase/slow down BRs

Population Density

Which photograph has a high population density?

Population DensityPopulation Density

= Total number of people per unit area of land

Calculation of Population Density

• Total resident in 1997 = 3736700• Total land area = 647.8 sq km

Pop density = 5768 persons per sq km

Population Density

• Canada – 3 people per sq km

• Bangladesh – 1042 people per sq km

• Singapore – 6000 people per sq km

http://www.photius.com/wfb1999/rankings/population_density_2.html

Top 10 most densely populated countries and territories (humans/sq km)

1. Monaco 168182. Macau 163413. Singapore 66524. Hong Kong 64275. Gibraltar 43086. Vatican City 18737. Malta 12778. Maldives 12649. Bermuda 124810. Bahrain 1080

Source: The Straits Times (11 Jul 2008)

Population Distribution• The way people are spread out over an area of

land

www.countrywatch.com/facts/facts_default.aspx...

Factors Affecting Population Distribution

• Relief

• Climate

• Soils

• Mineral and energy deposits

• Accessibility

• Relief

• Climate

• Soils

• Mineral and energy deposits

• Accessibility

Population Pyramid• Shows the proportion of males and females in

different age groups• Measured in % or no of total pop• Shape determined by BR, DR and migration• Analyse according

– Proportion of male vs female– Economically non-active: 0-14 (young

dependents), >65 (elderly)– Economically active: 15-65 (Working pop)– BR, DR, Life expectancy

A Pyramidal-shaped Population Pyramid (Progressive)

Describing and interpreting• Broad base indicates high BR or fertility rate

and an expanding/youthful population• Large dependent population account 35% or

more of the total population• Pyramid narrows towards the top, indicating

high DR• The narrow top from the 65 – 69 age group

indicates low life expectancy• Overall sex ratio is balanced which reflects little

immigration or emigration• Such a population diagram is typical of

developing countries with increasing population

A bee-hived Pyramid A bee-hived Pyramid (Regressive)(Regressive)

Describing and Interpreting• Narrow base indicates low BR and fertility rate• Young dependent makes up less than 30% of the

total population• Broader top indicates a long life expectancy and a

relatively low DR• Aged can account more than 15% of the population –

greying pop• There is a possibility of the population shrinking as

birth and population growth rates continue to drop each year

• Such a pyramid typifies the population structure of developed countries

Reasons for high growth rate:Developing countries

Low DR High BR

Better medical and health care

•low infant mortality•higher life expectancy

Lack of family planning

Better hygiene & sanitation

Early marriages

Access to clean drinking water

Preference for sons

Need for farm labour

Overpopulation

Definition: • a situation when there are too many people

relative to the resources and level of technology to provide a reasonable standard of living

Overpopulation Characteristics:•High BR•Low life expectancy•Low level of literacy•High rate of unemployment in urban areas•Rural people caught in the vicious cycle of poverty due to poor farming techniques•Many live in poor, congested, unhygienic conditions

Overpopulation

OverpopulationSolutions

• Control population through policies • Raise level of education• Improve standard of living

Reasons for low growth rate: Developed countries

Low DR low BR

Better hygiene Later marriages

Better nutrition Fewer marriages

Better medical and health care

Preference for smaller families

Low growth rate: Developed countries

Consequences:•Underpopulation

•Ageing population

Underpopulation Definition: • a situation when there are not enough people to

fully develop the resources in an area or countryLikely to occur in:• large areas which are not fully exploited eg

Canada• Developed countries such as Japan and

Sweden where BR and population growth rates are falling

• Low replacement rate• Countries where the proportion of people over

60 are increasing

Ageing Population

Definition: a trend in which there is an increasing proportion of elderly dependents in the population.

Ageing PopulationCauses:

Low BR & low DR…High Life expectancyLow population growth rate

Consequences:

– Hinder economic development– Labour shortages / rising labour cost– Strain on working population – pay more taxes– More healthcare services needed

Ageing PopulationSolutions• To overcome low BR: …incentives to encourage

marriage and child birth• To overcome labour shortages:

– Raise retirement age– Attract women back to workforce– Employ foreign workers– Mechanisation

• Ensuring funds and care for elderly– Central Provident Fund (CPF)– Fund raising to build facilities

• Encourage participation in activities• Provision of elderly-friendly features in home

Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition ModelStage 1 – High Stationary Stage•Features:•High BR & DR esp among children•Population growth is small

 

Reasons for high DR:•Famines, wars and infectious diseases•Population Pyramid:•Broad base and a small, narrow top•NO country at Stage 1

Stage 2- Early Expanding Stage

Features:

•BR high about 40 per thousand; DR drops rapidly to 20 per thousand

•Rapid population growth

Reasons for high BR:

•No practice of family planning or birth control

•Child bearing years are long because women marry early

•Children required as farm hands in the fields

•High infant mortality rate – ensures survival

•Countries are developing and mainly agricultural

Reasons for declining DR:

•Improvements in medical care, personal hygiene, water supplies and sewage facilities

Pop Pyramid:

•A broad base with a slightly broader and higher top than Stage 1

•Countries are developing and mainly agricultural

Demographic Transition Model

Stage 3 – Late Expanding Stage

Features:•BR drops rapidly to below 20 per thousand; DR fall gradually to 15 per thousand•Population continues to grow but at slower rate than Stage 2•Stage 3 – Late Expanding Stage

Reasons for low BR:•Family planning, birth control measure•Govt incentives to keep BR low•Infant mortality rate is low •Easier to achieve a higher standard of living when family is small•Women are more career minded

Demographic Transition Model

Stage 4 – Low Stationary Stage

Features:•DR stabilised at a low rate of 15 per thousand and below•BR is low – fluctuates below 20 per thousand•Population growth is small/zero population growth•Most developed countries are at this stage – considerable economic development, affluence and a high standard of living

Stage 5 - Low and Declining•the BR is lower than the DR•the DR increases due to ageing of the population•the population declines•egs. Sweden and Japan

Demographic Transition Model

References

1. Chong, M. (2000) Aspect of Human Geography, Singapore: Pekoe Books. Chapter 1 (p.1 – 47)

2. Waugh, D. (2000) Geography An Integrated Approach, UK: Nelson. Chapter 13 (p. 344 – 383)

3. Wikipedia