Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation ... 1.Depopulation, aging population: increased

Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation ... 1.Depopulation, aging population: increased
Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation ... 1.Depopulation, aging population: increased
Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation ... 1.Depopulation, aging population: increased
Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation ... 1.Depopulation, aging population: increased
Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation ... 1.Depopulation, aging population: increased
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Transcript of Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation ... 1.Depopulation, aging population: increased

  • Population: Population Shrinkage, Rural Depopulation, Aging Society

    Introduction to Japanese Society Week 2

    Philip Seaton

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    1

    0,000

    20,000,000

    40,000,000

    60,000,000

    80,000,000

    100,000,000

    120,000,000

    140,000,000

    18 80

    18 90

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    20 00

    20 10

    20 18

    Population of Japan

    Now dropping about 200,000 people a year.

    Population of Japan, 1872-2018

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    2

    Population Pyramid

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan

    3

    Changes in the Population Pyramid

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan

    4

    Proportion of Elderly Population

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan

    5

    • Increased costs of pensions, care, medical treatment.

    • Economic opportunities created by a genki, “leisure”

    class.

    • Read the article by: Muramatsu & Akiyama, "Japan: Super-Aging Society Preparing for the Future".

    Implications of an Aging Society

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

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  • Natural Population Change

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    Source: "Statistical Handbook of Japan 2019" by Statistics Bureau, Japan

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    • Encourage fertility.

    • Prevent mortality.

    • Immigration of the young; migration of the old.

    • Don’t worry, be happy!

    • Seek out the “depopulation dividend”.

    Japan’s Options

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    8

    • Peter Matanle, "Towards an Asia-Pacific 'Depopulation Dividend' in the 21st Century”.

    • National vs Regional vs Metropolitan depopulation.

    • Japan’s urban hubs as population magnets.

    • Why are we obsessed with growth, including population

    growth? Why aren’t we celebrating shrinkage?

    The Depopulation Dividend

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    9

    • The end of demographic growth = the end of economic growth? But who needs growth?

    • GDP as a silly measure of well-being or happiness in society.

    • Let’s hear a talk by Kate Raworth, a visionary economic thinker.

    • Video: “A Healthy Economy Should Be Designed To Thrive, not Grow” (16 mins).

    Doughnut Economics

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    10

    The Doughnut

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    Kate Raworth, Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century

    Economist, p. 11.

    11

    The Yubari Story

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    12

  • 0,000

    2,000,000

    4,000,000

    6,000,000

    1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019

    Hokkaido Sapporo

    4.4% 6.3% 10.4%

    25.1% 37.8%

    Hokkaido Peak: in 1997 at 5.7 million.

    Now shrinking.

    Sapporo’s relentless rise (over 1.955 million in 2019).

    Hokkaido & Sapporo Populations

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    13

    Yubari

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    14

    A coal mining town in the mountains …

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

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    … famous for melons …

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    16

    2007 Hollywood remake

    Locations are still a tourist site in Yubari

    The Yellow Handkerchief of Happiness

    … and film …

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    17

    0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

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    100,000

    120,000

    18 95

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    20 05

    20 10

    Population of Yubari

    Developing coal town

    War: coal a key resource

    Postwar boom

    1959: From coal to oil

    What to do?

    … and population collapse.

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    18

  • 0

    20,000

    40,000

    60,000

    80,000

    100,000

    120,000

    18 95

    19 00

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    19 75

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    19 85

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    20 05

    20 10

    Population of Yubari

    Developing coal town

    War: coal a key resource

    Postwar boom

    1959: From coal to oil

    1980s: “from mines to tourism”

    … and population collapse.

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    19

    Tourism Strategy

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    20

    Tourism Strategy

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    21

    Financial Folly

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    22

    2009: While crowds flock to the new Hanabatake Bokujo raw

    caramel factory ...

    ... the area around the Coal Mining Museum is almost

    deserted.

    The Limits of Tourism

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

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    0

    20,000

    40,000

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    Population of Yubari

    Developing coal town

    War: coal a key resource

    Postwar boom

    1959: From coal to oil

    1980s: “from mines to tourism”

    2006: financial collapse

    Financial Collapse

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    24

  • • Underlying causes:

    1. Depopulation, aging population: increased demand

    for services on a reduced tax base.

    2. Mismanagement: reckless spending on tourism,

    financial irregularities, pork-barrel politics.

    3. Decentralization policy: Koizumi reforms (Trinity

    Reforms 2003) shifts responsibility for local taxation onto local authorities.

    Financial Collapse

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introduction to Japanese Society 2019/10/14

    25

    • A young, energetic mayor.

    • A “compact city plan”.

    • Shutting down wasteful sites.

    • Attracting new business.

    • Relocating the population to

    nearer the city centre.

    • But, debt will continue for years … with a population of 50% over 65 years old (since May 2017).

    Suzuki Naomichi (DoB 1981)

    Since April 2019 Japan’s

    youngest prefectural governor!

    Yubari Strikes Back!

    www.philipseaton.net© Philip Seaton, Tokyo University of Foreign Studies. Introd