Population Geography

Chapter 2

PopulationPopulation• Demographics is the

study of human population distribution and migration.

• Key Issues of Demographics are:– Food Supply– Health and life

expectancy– Status of women– Migration

People are NOT distributed evenly across the Earth. Population is clustered in the mid latitude climates and

relatively sparse in the dry and polar climates or the highlands.

Major Population Concentrations• East Asia-1/4 of the

world’s population is here-China with 1.3 billion.

• There are ribbon like extensions in China along the Chang and Huang rivers, but most live on the east coast.

• Other areas include Japan, Korea and Vietnam.

• Most people are farmers, not city dwellers.

Major PopulationPopulation Concentrations• South Asia-the 2nd major

population cluster.

• Like East Asia there are finger-like extension of dense pop. that follows the Ganges and Indus rivers.

• There are 1.5 billion in South Asia and India recently passed the 1 billion mark.

• Bangladesh (size of Iowa) with 141 million.

Major PopulationPopulation Concentrations• Europe-the 3rd in population

with 700 million.• Europe is very urbanized

with 75% to 90% living in cities.

• Europe’s population distribution is not closely tied to terrain, but more closely tied to coal fields.

• Population density varies from the highest in the Netherlands to very low in Iceland.

Closely spaced houses inAmsterdam, Netherlands

Major PopulationPopulation Concentrations• North America- East Central

US and SE Canada equals ¼ the size of the smallest Eurasian concentration.

• Unlike Europe, North America has large areas of sparsely populated regions.

• Megalopolis Boston to Washington, D.C. which includes New York, Philadelphia and Boston.

• Other major population concentrations: Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego.

Skyscrapers of ManhattanNew York

World Population Growth –Rate of natural increase (does not take

into account immigration and emigration).

Today, the pace of world population growth is slowing. Where have Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) fallen below

replacement level and why?

Crude Birth Rate

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 to 2.5 children per woman is considered “replacement level.”

Crude Death Rates

Infant Mortality Rate: - the number of deaths of children under the age of 1, per thousand of the general population.

Life Expectancy : The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

Dependency Ratio

• The number of people under the age of 15 and over age 64, compared to the number of people active in the labor force.

Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

What is the Demographic Transition?

The shift from highhigh to low mortality and fertility through four distinct stages.

Based on the experience of Western Europe’s Industrial Age.

Began by Warren Thompson in 1929.Further developed in 1945 by Frank

NotesteinA sign of socio-economic progress?

The Classic Demographic Transition

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4

Time

Naturalincrease

Birth rate

Death rate

Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

Stage 1 - High FluctuatingReasons Birth Rate is high as a result of:

Lack of family planning High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in

the 'bank' Need for workers in agriculture Religious beliefs Children as economic assets

Death Rate is high because of: High levels of disease Famine Lack of clean water and sanitation Lack of health care War Competition for food from predators such as

rats Lack of education

Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) today.

Crude Birth Rate: High 40-50 / 1,000Crude Death Rate: High 40-50 / 1,000Natural Increase Rate: None 0 / 1,000Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

Stage 2 - Early ExpandingReasons

Death Rate is falling as a result of: Improved health care (e.g.

Smallpox Vaccine) Improved Hygiene (Water for

drinking boiled) Improved sanitation Improved food production and

storage Improved transport for food Decreased Infant Mortality Rates

Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

Crude Birth Rate: High 40+ / 1,000Crude Death Rate: Lower 15 / 1,000Natural Increase Rate: Very High 25+/1,000

Stage 3 - Late Expanding

Reasons Family planning available Lower Infant Mortality Rate Increased mechanization

reduces need for workers Increased standard of living Changing status of women Typical of Britain in late 19th

and early 20th century; China; Brazil.

Crude Birth Rate: Lower 20 / 1,000Crude Death Rate: Low 10 / 1,000Natural Increase Rate: Low 10 / 1000

Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating

• Reasons– Economy is settled– Fully developed Middle Class– Political stability

• Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain

Crude Birth Rate: Low 10 / 1,000Crude Death Rate: Low 10 / 1,000Natural Increase Rate: None 0 / 1,000

Is the model universally applicable?

• Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events:– 1 Birth rates in several MEDCs have fallen below death

rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps the model should have a fifth stage added to it.

– 2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely, however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialized.

Continued 3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the

consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities. In many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil), whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier, in China following the government-introduced ‘one child’ policy. The timescale of the model, especially in several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a much faster rate than did the early industrialized countries.

4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass through the early stages of the model.

World Health Threats• This transition occurs as a country undergoes the process

of modernization or economic development. Less economically developed countries have higher rates of infectious diseases as standards of medical care are lower than that found in more economically developed countries.

• In more economically developed countries, more people die from degenerative diseases as infectious diseases such as cholera and typhoid are easily treated, causing more people to die from cancers as they live longer.

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 1

• The first transition was from hunting-gathering to primary food production. During this transition, infectious and parasitic diseases became prevalent. The shift to agriculture provides a more sedentary way-of-life and this creates more opportunities for contact with infected animals and human waste (i.e. vectors and vehicles of transmission).

Epidemiologic Transition –stage 2

• The second epidemiological transition occurred in modern times with infectious diseases under control and chronic, noninfectious, degenerative diseases rising. This second epidemiological transition is typically in the wealthy or developed nations. Developing nations still suffer from infectious diseases more than chronic diseases.

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 3

• The stage of generative and human-created diseases, characterized by a decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in chronic disorders associated with aging. Two important chronic disorders are cardiovascular diseases and various forms of cancer

Epidemiologic Transition- stage 4

• The stage of delayed degenerative diseases. The major degenerative causes of death-cardiovascular diseases and cancers. Life expectancy of older people is extended through medical advances

Epidemiologic Transition-stage 5

• The stage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Infectious diseases thought to have been eradicated or controlled have returned, and new ones have emerged.

Cholera in London, 1854

Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

Tuberculosis Death Rates

Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005

Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

• Population Pyramids-display a country’s population in a bar graph form.

• Each 5 year group with the youngest 0-4 years old at the base of the pyramid are called cohorts.

• Males are shown on the left side and females are shown on the right.

• A wide-based pyramid indicates a country in Stage 2 of the Demographic transition.

Population Pyramids –

Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender.

For poorer countries, the chart is shaped like a pyramid. Infant mortality rates are high, life expectancy is shorter.

Population Pyramids

Charts that show the percentages of each age group in the total population, divided by gender.

For wealthier countries, the chart is shaped like a lopsided vase. Population is aging, TFRs are declining.

Population PoliciesPopulation Policies

• Expansive Policies or Pro-Natalist policies encourage large families e.g. Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany, Soviet Union & Ceausescu’s Romania & Mao’s China.

• Eugenic Population Policy-Nazi Germany favored “Aryans” over mentally ill or other undesirables.

• The Nazis tried to breed the super race of Nordic or Aryan types.

Population PoliciesPopulation Policies

• Restrictive or Anti-Natalist Policies discourage births.

• Policies vary- e.g. despite Vatican policies, most Catholic Italians practice artificial birth control-Philippines (only Asian Catholic country) a different case-govt. restricts birth control.

• Some countries have learned that industrialization & urbanization do as much as government policy in controlling births.

China’s One Child PolicyChina’s One Child Policy

What are some of the limitations, unintended consequences, and contradictions found in government policies toward population growth?

Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography• Recognized minorities (3%)

of pop. were exempt• Many rural Chinese defied

rule, hid pregnant women, failed to register births, prevented inspectors from visiting rural villages.

• Government took drastic action:– Violators were fired– Land was confiscated– Lost all benefits– Pregnant women were arrested

& forced to have abortions

Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography• First 6 years 70 million

abortions • 1980s about 20 million

sterilizations a year-3X as many women as men.

• Party Members were birth control police-got cash and promotion for enforcing the laws.

• 1984 One Child Policy was relaxed in the countryside-a couple with a daughter-2nd child after 4 years.

Geography of DemographyGeography of Demography

• China’s One-Child Policy created a generation of 90 million

• 119 boys for every 100 girls• 30 million unmarried men by 2020• 45% of Chinese women said they

don’t intend to wed.• 3/10 families have grandparents

living with them• Biggest demographic revolution in

history-Number of Elderly is rising-by 2050 about 30% of the population will be over 60-no pensions or social security.

• In 1798 he published An Essay on the Principle of Population

• Malthus was the first to sound the alarm that the world’s population was expanding more rapidly than food production.

• He was the first to recognize exponential or geometric population growth.

• Today those who share his concerns are Neo-Malthusians

Rev. Thomas Malthus 1766-1834

Food & Population, 1950-2000Malthus vs. Actual Trends

Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Thomas Malthus Neo-Malthusians Critics of Malthus

Population is growing faster than Earth’s food supplyPopulation increased geometrically; food supply increased arithmetically

•Transfer of medical technology leads to a rapid increase in population in poor countries•World population is outstripping a wide variety of resources•Wars and civil violence will increase because of scarcity of food and other resources

•Large populations stimulate economic growth• Poverty, hunger, and other social welfare problems are a result of unjust social and economic institutions

Malthus Theory and Reality• Food production increased more rapidly than

predicted because of technology.– Internal combustion engines– Artificial fertilizers – Pesticides– Irrigation pumps– Advanced plant and animal hybridization techniques– Refrigeration– Tin can for packaging

THE END