Population & Economic Trends for Bennett, Adams County, & Colorado

7/21/2019 Population & Economic Trends for Bennett, Adams County, & Colorado

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Populat i on and EconomT r ends f or Bennet t , Ada

Count y , and Color adoRob Kemp

State Demography Office

Colorado Department of Local Affairs

Transitions


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Why Does Economics / Demographic Planning for goods/services provision anticipate age, ra

understand who will demand goods and services

Housing demand / supply prices, types, locations

Job Figures / Characteristics Types, Skills, Ripple effec

Commuting Pattern Where do workers live and work?

Incomes Salaries & Wages, pensions, social transfers

Marketplace What will the State, Planning Regions, & Ceconomic profiles resemble in 10, 20, 30 years?

Schools, Healthcare, Transport What infrastructure wilWhere will the revenues come from?

State Demography Office provides an analytical framewor


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State Demography Offic State agency

Responsible for population data needed by state agencies

Department of Local Affairs

Prepare data and information in ways that account for loca

perspectives, needs

Public information

Make data and information readily available to the public, citizens, businesses and non-profit agencies

Outreach

Work with local governments and others to understand wh

numbers are saying Relationship of jobs to people to community services


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The Big Picture


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Big Picture - 2013-2014 Pop Ch US 318 million, + 2.3 million or .7%

Colorado: 5,355,000

Ranked 4th fastest 1.6% - ND, NV, TX 8th absolute growth 83,700 TX, CA, FL

GA, AZ, NC, WA

Range in Colorado - Preliminary

+15,000 to -400 Or +5% to -3.5%

Adams: (Provisional 2014) 480,322


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Age


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0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Colorado Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010


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-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 8Age

Net Migration by Age, 2000-2010


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Jobs and the Econom


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Manufacturing

Information

Finance activities

Real estate

Utilities

Retail Trade

Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Other Services

AgricultureGovernment

Arts

Prof. and Business Services

Health Services

Education

Mining

Colorado Job Change by Industry, 2006 to 2013


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2013ShareofJobsbyIndustry

SectorName Bennett Adams

Agriculture 3.6% 0.Mining 1.5% 0.

Utilities 0.0% 0.

Construction 15.3% 10.

Manufacturing 0.6% 5.

WholesaleTrade 5.0% 7.

Retail

Trade 21.8% 9.

Transportation&Warehousing 2.5% 7.

Information 0.0% 1.

FinanceandInsurance 1.9% 1.

RealEstateandRentalandLeasing 0.0% 2.

Professional

and

Technical

Services 3.7% 4.ManagementofCompanies 0.1% 0.

Administrative andWasteServices 1.6% 6.

EducationalServices 0.0% 1.

HealthCareandSocialAssistance 0.2% 8.

Arts,Entertainment,andRecreation 0.4% 1.

Accommodation

and

Food

Services 12.7% 6.

Other Services 3 7% 6


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The Forecast


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0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Colorado Jobs Forecast, 2010 to 2040


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Colorado Population by RegioSource: State Demography Office, 2013


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Bennett Growth 2025 Population: ~3,000

Growth of about 500-600

Based on Current share staying the same.

Dependent on Housing Choices

Would imply about 210 new housing units (2.7Size)

Housing Stock Options can change compositio

Price Points


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Forecasts - Trends

Growth in race/ethnic diversityespecially at the young end.

Growth in Young and Aging Growth in both high and low en

service Labor Force Changes

Income Challenges


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Aging Issues

Numbers Economic Driver

Labor Force Housing

Income Health/Disabilities

Transportation

Public Finance


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Aging Issues Numbers Colorado has never had many older people

4th lowest in 65+ (2010 Census)

Migrate in people primarily 20-40

Economic Driver - wealthier . depend

Spending of people 65+ supported approxima

137,000 jobs in 2010. (.25 jobs per person 65 Forecast to support 346,000 by 2030

Impact on occupational mix

Health Services both high and low end

Health Services est. .1 job per person 65+ (55,0


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Millennial


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Household Income.its future i

demographically challenged. Age distributions End of Demographic

Dividend

Occupational Mix high and low service

More race/ethnicity diverse especially ayoung end but achievement gap is growi

as well. Household type and size single and

smaller.

Youth un and under employment - Long


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Long-Term Challenges - Colora

Maintaining Economic and Amenity Advanta Everyone competing for best and brightest.

Growth in high and low skill/wage service j

bifurcation Disparate growth across state.

More racially/ethnically diverse.

Coping with opportunities and challenges oaging population

Transitions in the Labor Force

Participation Rates, growth rates of labor force

I d d h h


40/520 3%

1.4%

1.8%

2.3%

2.9%

3.1%

3.2%

4.0%

4.2%

5.0%

5.6%

7.1%

7.2%

10.7%

11.4%

11.4%

Utilities

Mining

Agriculture

Education

Arts

Information

Transportation and warehousing

Real estate

Wholesale trade

Finance activities

Manufacturing

Other Services

Construction

Prof. and Business Services

Health Services

Retail Trade

Government

Colorado Jobs by Industry, 2013


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Shar e of l abor f or ce by group


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Grow t h i n leaver s w i l l cr e

mor e demand f or wor ker


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Median Home Value


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Persons in family/household Poverty guideline

1 $11,770

2 $15,930

3 $20,090

4 $24,250

5 $28,410

6 $32,570

7 $36,730

8 $40,890

2015 POVERTY GUIDELINES FOR THE 48 CONTIGUO

AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA


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1990-2010 2010-2030


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Color ado l abor f or ce change 1970


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Aging and Publ i c Finance

Ratio of 65+ per 20-64 year olds in CO Becoming more normal

End of the demographic dividend

Public Finance change in revenue andexpenditures.

Income tax downward pressure

Sales tax downward pressure

Property tax downward pressure

Health services increasing

Medicaid increasing


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Lab

16-3

of thforc

of th

une


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If you have any questions regarding this report please contact:

Rob Kemp, PhDDemographerState Demography Office

P303.864.7755 | F303.864.7759

1313 Sherman St., Suite 521, Denver, CO [email protected]| www.colorado.gov/demography

Population & Economic Trends for Bennett, Adams County, & Colorado

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