Population Change in Michigan - IPPSR · Population Change in Michigan IPPSR Incoming Legislator...
Transcript of Population Change in Michigan - IPPSR · Population Change in Michigan IPPSR Incoming Legislator...
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Population Change in Michigan
IPPSR Incoming Legislator Program
Eric Guthrie, PhD
December 4, 2018
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State Demographer
• Michigan’s liaison with the U.S. Census Bureau for most programs including population estimates, projections, data dissemination and the decennial census
• Advisor to state leaders, businesses, non-profits, the media, and the general public on issues related to population and the Census
• Lead for the State Data Center (SDC)
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• I send out updates when there is a significant data release from the Census Bureau
• The Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives also sends out regular updates on a wealth of topics
• You can sign up for those updates and pick what topics interest you at: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/MIDEPTTMB/subscriber/new
Subscribe to the Bureau’s Listserv for updates
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• 2020 Census
• State Population (trends and projections)
• How Populations Change
• Population Structure
• Poverty
Topics
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• Once a decade count of all residents
– Required by the Constitution
– Used in Redistricting
– Forms the basis of all the demographic data produced by the federal government
• The next two years will see the ramp-up and execution of the Census
– Partnership activities
– Census offices
– Complete Count Committees
– Local hiring
– Address canvasing
2020 Census
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Michigan Population
9,952,450
10,055,315
9,876,199
9,962,311
9,750,000
9,800,000
9,850,000
9,900,000
9,950,000
10,000,000
10,050,000
10,100,000
20
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20
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20
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20
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20
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20
07
20
08
20
09
20
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20
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20
14
20
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17
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
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Michigan Projected Population
9,400,000
9,600,000
9,800,000
10,000,000
10,200,000
10,400,000
10,600,000
10,800,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDOT and U-M’s Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy (IRLEE)
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Why Does It Matter?
• There are only three things that affect a population size over time:
– Births
– Deaths
– Migration
Population2 =
Population1 + Births – Deaths + (In-migrations – Out-migration)
Natural Change Net Migration
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Births
134,642136,171
113,091
113,312
80,000
90,000
100,000
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
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99
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Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Population Change Due to Births and Deaths
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Population Change Due to Births and Deaths
Source: Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget; Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives
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Net Migration
-100,000
-80,000
-60,000
-40,000
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
90
-91
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-92
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-93
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-96
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-98
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Source: Michigan DTMB, BLMISI; U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program; MDHHS
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Net Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Net Domestic Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Net International Migration
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017 Population Estimates
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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Michigan Age Structure
Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
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County Median Ages
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program
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Geographic Distribution of Poverty
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Detroit and Pontiac
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Flint
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Saginaw, Bay City, and Midland
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Lansing
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Battle Creek and Kalamazoo
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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Grand Rapids and Muskegon
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey, 5-year Estimates
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• Michigan’s population has fluctuated over the last 15 to 20 years, but it is increasing again
– The state should pass the 10M mark soon
– The state will likely reach/surpass its peak population early to mid-decade
• Migration will be the factor that will most affect the state’s population positively in the years to come
• Poverty exits throughout the state, but it reaches it highest concentrations in urban areas.
Take-aways
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Questions?
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Eric A. Guthrie, PhDState DemographerDepartment of Technology, Management & BudgetBureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic InitiativesVictor Office Building201 N. Washington Square5th FloorLansing, MI 48913(517) 241-8667