Population and Resources

This PPT has been adapted from: http://www.slideshare.net/ecumene/population-9-intro-to-population-and-resources-presentation

Contrasting Places

Bangladesh population density = 981 people/km2

Sudan population density = 15.6 people/km2

Which one is over populated?

Contrasting Places

Amsterdam (the Netherlands, population density = 397 people/km2)

Calcutta (India, population density = 330 people/km2)

Which one is over populated?

What does this clip tell us about the relationship (conflict) between

people and resources?

Definitions

1. Over-population – when there are too many people and not enough resources to provide a high standard of living at a given level of technology.

2. Under-population – when there are not enough people to fully exploit the available resources.

3. Optimum population – when the population of a country is fully utilizing its available resources and technology to provide the highest standard of living possible.

4. Carrying capacity – the number of people that can be supported by the available resources within a particular area without the long-term depletion of those resources.

Resources - Key Concepts1. Natural resources: environmental: mineral and

fossil resources. (i.e.: iron, oil)2. Human resources: cultural, economic,

technological resources3. Non-renewable resources: finite natural

resources (oil, coal, gas), capital (machinery, equipment)

4. Renewable resources: non-finite natural resources: hydro power, wind, solar.

5. Reserves: Many countries hold “emergency” reserves of finite resources (oil, grain, gas)

Population and Resources

Theories on the relationship between

population and resources

Starring, from left to right:Thomas Malthus

Simon JulianPaul Erhlich

Ester BoserupThe Club of Rome

Theory 1: Thomas Malthus

Thomas Malthus

• 1766-1834. Born in UK.• Wrote ‘An essay on the

Principle of population’. Published in 1798

• World pop. in 1798: 9 million people. • Now: more than 6 billion

Malthus recognised that population - if unchecked - grows at a geometric rate:

1 2 4 8 16 32

However, food only increases at an arithmetic rate, as land is finite.

1 2 3 4 5 6

Therefore….

War, famine, disease.

The Core Principles of Malthus:• Food is necessary for human existence• Human population grows faster than the

power of the earth to produce food.• The effects of these two unequal powers

must be kept equal.• Since humans tend not to limit their

population size voluntarily - “preventive checks” are needed. (in Malthus’ terminology) To check = to stop or slow

the progress of some unwelcome process. to halt, to stop, to slow something down.

Negative checks (decreased birth rate)….

• Negative Checks: limit pop. growth by decreasing birth rate: Examples: abstinence / delay of marriage.

• (Malthus favoured moral restraint as a check on population growth.

• However, it is worth noting that Malthus proposed this only for the working and poor classes!)

Positive checks (increased death rate)

• Positive Checks: events which increase the death rate such as famine, disease, war increasing the mortality rate and reducing life expectancy.

Was Malthus right?• ... There has been a population explosion,

• ... Demand for food is rising rapidly,

• ... Africa – repeated famines, wars, food crisis, environmental degradation, soil erosion, crop failure and disastrous floods – so was he right?

But…..• Technological improvements which he

could not have foreseen

• More farmland due to irrigation & better technology

• Reduced population growth as countries move through the DTM

The Demographic transition model (DTM) is a model used to represent the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The theory was developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson.

'J' Curve - Population Crash Model

Where do famine etc. fit?

This follows the ideas of Malthus: population rapidly expands, reaching the carrying capacity of the land. As the population exceeds this, famine and disease play havoc with the population and it crashes.

‘S' Curve - Stabilisation Model

This follows ideas of the demographic transition model over time. A low base population is followed by a rapidly expanding one that finally stabilizes at a new high population level.

Theory 2: Club of Rome

The Club of Rome

• Group of industrialists, scientists, economists and statesmen from 10 countries

• Published ‘The Limits to Growth’ in 1972

The Club of Rome

The Club of Rome – basic conclusion….

• If present growth trends in world population continue and if associated industrialisation, pollution, food production and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime in the next 100 years.

• The most probable result will be sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.

Malthus and the Club of Rome – are they right?

What evidence is there to support their ideas?

Theory 3: Ester Boserup

Ester Boserup 1965• Boserup believed that people have

resources of knowledge and technology and that “necessity is the mother of invention”, thus as populations grow towards the carrying capacity, people develop new ways to use resources (food) more productively.

• Can you think of real life examples?

Thus…….

• Demographic pressure (population density) promotes innovation and higher productivity in use of land (irrigation, weeding, crop intensification, better seeds) and labour (tools, better techniques).

Whose view on population growth is this?

Ester Boserup

Whose view on population growth is this?

Malthus

Was Boserup Right?

What about resource degradation and pollution? Can we continue to innovate

to overcome these issues?

The debate goes on…….

Theory 4: Paul Ehrlich

Ehrlich

• Paul Ehrlich, a Stanford University biologist, wrote his book The Population Bomb in 1968.

• In it he warned of doom and gloom - resource depletion, species extinction and a human population so large that as a species we would face mass poverty, famine, starvation and death.

• According to Ehrlich, the Earth had reached its carrying capacity long ago and we were living on borrowed time.

Theory 5: Julian Simon

Simon• Julian Simon, a University of Maryland

economist, has written several books on population most famously The Ultimate Resource.

• Simon thought that all of the doom and gloom of Ehrlich was nothing but nonsense. He claimed that resources are infinite human beings will never run out of them for whatever purpose they decide to use them for.

• Essentially, Simon considered humans to be the “ultimate resource”

Thumbs down only means that

these are the Neo

Malthusians, does not mean

the theory is thumbs down…

Thumbs up only means that

these are the Optimists, does not mean the

theory is thumbs up…

Who’s who, and are they or ?

= (Neo) Malthusian

= “Optimists”

The BetEhrlich predicted that the prices of

resources should increase. Why?

Simon countered Ehrlich's saying that in fact the price of resources would decrease

over time. Why?

versus

In 1980, Simon offered Ehrlich a bet. Ehrlich could choose any five raw materials he wanted. Simon sold Ehrlich an option to buy an

amount of each raw material worth $200 in 1980 dollars.

If the prices increased over the next ten years, Simon would pay Ehrlich; however, if the

prices decreased over the same time period, Ehrlich would have to pay Simon.

Ehrlich chose five metals: copper, chrome, nickel, tin and tungsten.

The bet was on…..

Ten years later, after adjusting for inflation, the prices of all five

metals…….

went down …

Ehrlich had lost. He sent Simon a cheque

and nothing else.

Simon offered to bet again and up the ante to $20,000;

Ehrlich declined.

Interesting further reading: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon-Ehrlich_wager

Let's apply Simon's logic to another commodity, petroleum. In 1980 the price

of a barrel of sweet crude oil was approximately $32. By 1990, the price

had fallen to $20 per barrel. According to Simon’s logic this would mean that we have more oil than we had before and

that we weren't running out of oil.

Is this the case??

http://www.oil-price.net/

A Continuum

How would population management strategies between these two extreme perspectives vary?

What type of compromises might exist?

Eco-centric Deep Ecologists (Doomsters) believe that rapid population growth and increased levels of development have led to a situation where there are insufficient resources and too much waste and pollution.

Techno-centric Cornucopians (Boomsters) champion the ability of

humans to innovate, develop and adapt, as the solution to the issues associated with population growth, resource consumption and waste?

A Continuum

Where do you stand, and why do you take that position?

Are you (Neo)Malthusian or an Optimist?

Justify your position.

Eco-centric Deep Ecologists (Doomsters) believe that rapid population growth and increased levels of development have led to a situation where there are insufficient resources and too much waste and pollution.

Techno-centric Cornucopians (Boomsters) champion the ability of

humans to innovate, develop and adapt, as the solution to the issues associated with population growth, resource consumption and waste?