Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and … · Population Aging, Intergenerational...

PopulationAging,IntergenerationalTransfers,

andtheEconomy

Amonthep Chawla

ThailandDevelopmentResearchInstitute(TDRI)November8,2010

PreparedforaPresentationatMacroeconomicPolicyandDevelopmentDivision, ESCAP

2

BackgroundandMotivation

Changesinpopulationagestructure Decreasingtotalfertilityandrisinglifeexpectancy.

Economiclifecycle Extendedperiodsofdependency.

Complexandvariedintergenerationaleconomicsystems Families,firms,markets,thestate,andcivilsocietyallplayarole.

Importantimplicationsforpoverty,economicgrowth,andgenerationalequity.

3

Objectives

Developasystemofeconomicaccountsthatquantifiesintergenerationalflowsinacomprehensivefashion.

Estimatetheaccountswithhistoricaldepthforeconomieswithdifferentcultures,levelsofdevelopment,economicsystemsandpolicies.

Analyzeandexplain variationintheeconomiclifecycleandtheintergenerationaleconomicsystems.

macroeconomiceffectsofpopulationaging. Improvepolicyrelatedtopensions,healthcare,education,andfertility.

4

ImportanceofNationalTransferAccounts

Goal:Developpoliciesthatrespondeffectivelytothepopulationagetransition

Requirement:acomprehensiveanddeepunderstandingofthegenerationaleconomy: Socialandeconomicinstitutions Economicflowsacrossagegroups Systemofpublicandprivateobligations

5

Outline

I. NationalTransferAccount BasicConcepts EconomicLifecycle Agereallocations

II. ChangesinAgeStructureandEconomicGrowth:DemographicDividends

I.NationalTransferAccount

7

NationalTransferAccounts

Measureeconomicflowsacrossagegroupsinasystematicandcomprehensiveway.

Flowsareidentifiedbytheeconomicmechanismsandthemediatinginstitutions.

AccountscomplementtheUNSystemofNationalAccountsandareconstructedinamannerconsistentwithmacroeconomicaggregates.

8

TheFlowAccountIdentity

Inflows LaborIncome AssetIncome TransferReceived

Outflows Consumption Saving TransfersPaid

Inflows Outflows

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )l aY a Y a a C a S a a + + + = + +144424443 144424443

Lifecycle Deficit Asset-based Reallocations Net Transfers

Age Reallocations

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )l aC a Y a Y a S a a a + = + 1442443 1442443 1442443

1444442444443

9

Data

1. AggregateControlsoftheNTFlowAccountaredrawnfromtheNationalIncomeofThailand(NESDB):19812004.

2. AgeProfilesareestimated,relyingoninformationfromthehouseholdsocioeconomicsurvey(SES):NSO.11surveyyears1981,1986,1988,1990,1992,1994,1996,1998,2000,2002and2004.

3. DataforthepopulationbyagearefrompopulationestimatesandprojectionsbytheUnitedNations(UN):19502050.

10

Compensation of Employees 1,353 Public Consumption Expenditure 470Operating Surplus 2,041 Education 144

Income from Unincorporated Enterprises 1,065 Health 44Income from Private Corporations and Property 846 Other 281

Property Income 476 Private Consumption Expenditure 2,480Less: Interest Payment on Consumer Debt 62 Education 22Less: Interest Payment on Public Debt 9 Health 164Saving of Private Corporations 252 Housing 147Corporate Income Tax 176 Other 2,147Corporate Transfer Payment 13 Net Saving 1,026

Income from Public Enterprises and Property 130 Households 278Corporations 252General Government 431

Saving of Government Enterprises 65 Government Enterprises 65Less: Indirect Taxes 573Subsidies 12Less: Net Public Current Transfers from ROW 2Less: Net Private Current Transfers from ROW 18

3,394 3,394

Income Approach

National Income

Expenditure Approach

National Expenditure

Government Income from Property and Entrepreneurship

66

National Income Account of Thailand in 1996 (Billions of Baht)

11

Education Health Total

1981 44.4 66.5 127.3 3,757.8 11,894 4.41986 45.0 76.4 141.9 4,027.6 10,889 4.11988 45.5 53.0 135.7 3,699.9 11,017 3.91990 46.3 78.6 181.4 4,938.7 13,162 4.01992 46.2 112.2 221.5 6,167.7 13,432 3.71994 47.2 134.8 260.6 6,761.2 25,176 3.71996 47.8 165.9 331.2 7,936.7 25,069 3.61998 48.1 241.4 233.7 8,937.6 23,515 3.72000 48.5 244.8 261.5 8,473.2 24,705 3.52002 48.6 252.5 249.3 9,496.9 34,735 3.42004 49.7 263.8 262.1 10,809.3 34,803 3.3Mean 47.04 153.62 218.75 6,818.77 20,763.4 3.77

Wage Farm Non-farm Property

1981 25.8 345.0 153.2 244.1 14.7 52,0041986 27.2 422.2 134.3 227.7 14.6 45,0721988 27.5 335.8 212.3 140.7 13.7 42,8431990 28.3 516.4 253.8 217.9 15.2 52,8791992 28.9 766.0 264.5 313.8 35.8 50,3091994 30.2 936.0 272.2 402.3 26.6 93,7351996 30.8 1,220.4 401.7 529.5 40.0 90,1331998 31.2 1,411.0 429.6 602.0 65.9 85,8912000 32.5 1,471.2 362.0 595.9 46.4 87,2312002 32.5 1,677.5 439.3 736.9 51.6 118,5502004 33.6 1,922.4 515.1 805.0 51.7 116,317Mean 29.87 1,002.19 312.55 437.77 34.20 75,905.8

Survey Years

Individuals CharacteristicsAge of

Individuals (years)

Income (Baht/Month) No. of Observations

Household Size

(persons)

Survey Years

Household CharacteristicsAge of Head

(years)

Consumption (Baht/Month) No. of Households

Micro Data: the Socio-economic Surveys (SES)

12

0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.140.160.180.20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Prop

ortio

n of

pop

ulat

ion

1950

2000

2050

PopulationbyAge

13

Method:ConstructingNTA

PrivateConsumption Education:regression Health:regressionanduseindividualhealthreportofSES2002

Other:equivalencescale PublicConsumption

Education:enrollmentrate&unitcost Health:inpatientofpublichospital(toberevisedusingNHA)

Other:percapita

14

Method(2)

LaborIncome(tabulatefromSES) Earnings Profitsfromfarm&nonfarm(2/3)

AssetIncome(assigntoHead tabulatefromSES) Profitsfromfarm&nonfarm(1/3) Propertyincome:rent,dividend,interest Other:proportionaltopropertyincome

15

Method(3)

PublicTransfers Inflows:inkind&cash(assigntorecipientsofbenefits) Outflows:taxes(basedonincomeandconsumption)

PrivateTransfers Interhouseholdtransfers

inflows:tabulatefromtheSES outflows:tabulatefromtheSES

Intrahouseholdtransfers Inflows:disposableinccons

16

Primary Secondary HigherEducation Consumption 71,832 41,798 27,172 3,583

(Million Baht)Number of Students 7,935 3,927 1,333 58,465

(Thousands)Unit Cost 9,052 10,644 20,388 61

(Baht)

Formal Education Informal Education

Example:PublicEducationConsumptionof

Thailandin1996

17

AggregatePublicEducationConsumptionfor

Thailandin1996(MillionsofBaht)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+Age

Baht

(Milli

on)

Estimated Results

Aggregate Control

Public formal education consumption by age is estimated by summing unit cost per student per level weighted by the number of students by age in each level

18

Percapitaconsumptionandlaborincome,Thailand,2004

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+Age

Baht

Consumption

Labor Income

Lifecycle surplus

Lifecycle deficit

Lifecycle deficit

The Economic Lifecycle

19

- 60,000

- 40,000

- 20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht

Percapitalifecycledeficit,Thailand,2004

Lifecycle deficit is the difference between consumption and labor production at each age

Lifecycle Surplus Ages:26-57

20

Percapitaprivateconsumption,Thailand,2004

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+Age

Baht

Other Consumption

Housing

Health

Education

Private Consumption

21

Percapitapublicconsumption,Thailand,2004

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+Age

Baht

Public Consumption

Health

Education

Other

22

ClassificationofInterageFlows

Economicform Assetbased Transfers

Mediatinginstitution Publicflowsaremediatedbythegovernment Privateflowsaremediatedbyhouseholds,families,NGOs,privateindividuals,etc.

23

Percapitaagereallocations,Thailand,2004

- 60,000

- 40,000

- 20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht

Age Reallocations

TransfersAsset- based Reallocations

24

Percapitanettransfersreceived,Thailand,2004

- 60,000

- 40,000

- 20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht

Transfers

Public

Private

25

Percapitanetintrahouseholdtransfers,Thailand,2004

- 80,000

- 60,000

- 40,000

- 20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht

Net transfers

Inflows

Outflows

26

Percapitanetintrahouseholdeducationtransfers,Thailand,2004

- 2,000

- 1,500

- 1,000

- 500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht

Net transfers

Inflows

Outflows

27

Percapitanetintrahouseholdhealthcaretransfers,Thailand,2004

- 6,000

- 4,000

- 2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht

Net

Inflows

Outflows

28

Percapitanetpublictransfers,Thailand,2004

- 30,000

- 20,000

- 10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht

Net transfers

Inflows

Outflows

29

Percapitanetpubliceducationtransfers,Thailand,2004

- 10,000

- 5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht

Net transfers

Inflows

Outflows

30

Percapitanetpublichealthcaretransfers,Thailand,2004

- 3,000

- 2,000

- 1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Age

Baht Net transfers

Inflows

Outflows

31

ResearchonNTAandSocialProtection

NTAcanbeusedtoimproveunderstandingontheareaofsocialprotection Howmuchchildrenandtheelderlyconsume;whattypesofconsumption

Humancapitaldevelopment Mechanismsthatchildrenand,particularly,theelderlyusetofinancetheirconsumption Variationofsocialprotectionacrosscountries

32

Consumption Finance by the Elderly

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US 2003 Japan2004

Thailand2004

Taiwan1998

Austria2000

Chile1997

Finland2004

Hungary2005

Indonesia2002

Mexico2004

Slovenia2004

Uruguay1994

%

Public Transfers Familial Transfers Asset-based Reallocations Work

Intergenerational transfers are large and important for most countries

33

Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits, Japan, 1984-2004

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

34

USA, 2003

Austria, 2000

Sweden, 2003

Germany, 2003

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Japan, 2004

Finland, 2004

Spain, 2000

Slovenia, 2004

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Taiwan, 1998

Korea, 2000

Hungary, 2005

Mexico, 2004

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Chile, 1997

Costa Rica, 2004

Uruguay, 1994

Brazil, 1996

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Thailand, 2004

Indonesia, 2005

China, 2002

Philippines, 1999

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

India, 2004

Nigeria, 2004

Kenya, 1994

0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

0

1

2

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91

YL

C

CF

CG Source: Tung forthcoming.

ChangesinEconomicLifecycleandSupportSystem

Thailand

19812004

36

Per Capita Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl(3

0-49

)

1981

2004

Education

Health

37

Per Capita Labor Income

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl (

30-4

9)

20041981

38

ChangesinEconomicLifecycle

Nochangeinthefirstcrossingage:youngadultsstarttogeneratelifecyclesurplusataroundage25

Gradualchangeinthesecondcrossingage:individualsturnbacktohavelifecycledeficitatyoungerages(61in1981to58in2004)

Shorterlifecyclesurplusperiod,decliningfrom36yearsin1981to33yearsin2004

39

Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits, Thailand

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl (

30-4

9)

615825

1981

2004

40

SupportSystems

Threemechanismsusedtoclosethegapbetweenconsumptionandproduction PublicTransfers PrivateTransfers AssetbasedReallocations

EmphasizeonYouthandtheElderly

41

PublicTransfers

PublicTransfersInflowslessOutflows Childrenreceivesignificantlylargerpubliceducationtransfers

Theelderlyreceiveslightlyincreasepublicsectorheathtransfers

Theworkingagespaylargertaxes!

42

Per Capita Net Public Transfers Received

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl (

30-4

9)

1981

2004

43

PrivateTransfers

Slightlyincreaseinprivatetransferstochildren

Largelyincreaseinprivatetransferstotheelderly

44

Per Capita Net Private Transfers Received

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl (

30-4

9)

2004

1981

45

AssetbasedReallocations

Assetincome saving Ageprofilesofassetincomeandsavingarefluctuatedduringthepastdecades Beforetheeconomiccrisisin1997:theelderlyrelyheavilyonassetincometosupporttheirconsumption

After1997:lessrelianceonassetincome Ageprofilesareyoungerduring20002004

46

Per Capita Asset Income

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl (

30-4

9) 19811986

1988

47


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl (

30-4

9)

1996

1992

1994

1998

1990

48


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl (

30-4

9)

2004

2000

2002

49

Per Capita Saving

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Rel

ativ

e to

Yl (

30-4

9)

1981

1996

2004

50

Summary:ChildSupportSystems

Ingeneral,childrenrelymoreonfamilialtransfersthanpublictransfers

Transferschangeovertime:childreninThailandrelylessonthefamilyandmoreonthepublicsector

PubliceducationtransfersarelargerandmoreimportantinThailand

51

Summary:OldageSupportSystems

Reallocationsthroughassetsaremajorsourceofsupportfortheelderly

Theelderlyrelylessonlaborincomeovertime Thepublicsectordoesnotprovidemuchsupportfortheelderly

Theelderlyrelymoreandmoreonthefamily familialsupportisnotdeterioratingdespiteeconomicdevelopment

II.ChangesinAgeStructureandEconomicGrowth:

DemographicDividends

53

MacroeconomicEffectsofDemographicChanges

Decliningfertilityleadstoalargershareofworkingageadults Moreproductionandhighereconomicgrowth

Continualdeclineinfertilityandmortalityratesleadstopopulationaging Smallershareoflaborforce,lowerproduction,slowereconomicgrowth

Populationagingmaynotadverselyaffecteconomicgrowth Needprudentpolicytoprepareforthiscomingdemographicchange

54

DemographicDividends

Changesinpopulationagestructureinteractwiththeeconomiclifecycle,affectingeconomicgrowth

Twodemographicdividends Changesintheeconomicsupportratio Changesinlifecyclewealth

55

DemographicDividends(2)

Changesinoutputpereffectiveconsumers

=Changesin productivity +

Changesintheeconomicsupportratio

Y(t)/N(t)=Y(t)/L(t)*L(t)/N(t)

Firstdemographicdividend

Seconddemographicdividend

56

TheFirstDemographicDividend

Changeintheeconomicsupportratioorthefirstdemographicdividendisinfluencedbytheeconomiclifecycle

Theeconomiclifecyclebeginsandendswiththedependencyperiodswhenconsumptionexceedsearnings(lifecycledeficit),requiringeconomicflowsfromworkingageadults(thelifecyclesurplusages)toclosethegap.

57

EconomicLifecycles

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

rela

tive t

o m

ean labor

incom

e a

ges

30-49

Consumption, Japan

Consumption, Thailand

Labor Income, Japan

Labor Income, Thailand

LifecycleSurplus

LifecycleDeficitLifecycleDeficit

58

ModelingtheFirstDividend

Givenconstantproductivity,changesinpopulationagestructureaffectstheeconomicsupportratio

where(a)and(a)aretheageprofilesofconsumptionandlaborincome,andP(a,t) isthepopulation

( ) ( ) ( , )

( ) ( ) ( , )a

a

N t a P a t

L t a P a t

=

=

59

EconomicSupportRatio

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Eff

ectiv

e w

orke

rs re

lativ

e to

eff

ectiv

e co

nsum

ers

China India Indonesia Thailand Japan Korea

60

FirstDemographicDividend

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

perc

ent


Note:Growthrateoftheeconomicsupportratioisthefirstdemographicdividend

61

SummaryoftheFirstDividend

Decliningfertilityleadstoalargershareofeffectiveproducers,allowingtheeconomytogrow

However,thefirstdividendistransitory;continualdeclineinfertilityleadstopopulationaging

ThefirstdividendinThailandisdepletedin2010,whereassomecountriescouldenjoythefirstdividendforseveralmoredecades

Willpopulationagingunfavorablyaffecteconomicgrowthinthefuture?

62

PreparationforPopulationAging

Inordertoavoidtheadverseeffectofpopulationagingoneconomicgrowth,twoapproachescanbeapplied: Physicalcapitalaccumulation(theseconddemographicDividend)

Humancapitalaccumulation(Raisingproductivityofthefuturelaborforce)

63

TheSecondDemographicDividend

Definition:Thegrowthinproductivityinducedbyanincreaseinthedemandforlifecyclewealth.

Compositionaleffect:populationisconcentratedatolder,highwealthages

Behavioraleffect:increaseindurationoflifeandretirementleadtogreateraccumulationofwealth

64

ModelingtheSecondDemographicDividend

Demandforcapitalisproportionaltolifecyclewealthofthose50+

Lifecyclewealthofthose50+ W(50+)=PV[C(50+)] PV[Yl(50+)] Crosssectionalageprofilesofconsumptionandproductionshiftproportionatelyovertime

Productivitygrowthisconstant Assumptions:interestrate:3%;productivitygrowth:1.5%;elasticityofoutputwrt capital:0.33

65

WealthRatio

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

wea

lth re

lativ

e to

labo

r


66

SecondDemographicDividend

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

perc

ent


Note:growthrateoflifecyclewealthinfluencestheseconddemographicdividend

67

SummaryoftheSecondDemographicDividend

Theseconddemographicdividendislargerandmoreimportanttotheeconomicgrowththanthefirstdividendinseveralcountries

Theseconddividendisnotautomatic;itrequirespolicythatencouragescapitalaccumulationratherthanreliesonpensionwealthtofinanceconsumptionduringretirementages

PopulationagingcouldbenefiteconomicgrowthifcapitalaccumulationisencouragedratherthanPAYGOpensionprogram

68

First Second Total

China 0.78 0.70 1.49 7.14 5.65India 0.27 0.85 1.12 2.66 1.54Indonesia 0.50 0.72 1.22 4.26 3.04Iran 0.42 0.34 0.76 -0.36 -1.12Japan 0.21 1.51 1.72 2.61 0.89Korea 0.98 1.25 2.22 6.03 3.81Mongolia 0.48 0.09 0.56 1.72 1.15Philippine 0.48 0.43 0.91 1.11 0.20Singapore 1.15 1.08 2.23 5.66 3.43Thailand 0.99 0.35 1.34 4.61 3.27Vietnam 0.40 0.09 0.49 4.45 3.96

Demographic Dividends Actual growth in GDP/N

Actual Dividend

Notes: based on method by Mason (2005)

Effectsofdemographicchangesoneconomicgrowth(19702000)

69

Summary

Intergenerationalflowsarelarge MagnitudeanddirectionofIGflowsarechanginginunprecedentedways

IGsystemsvarywidelyandarechanging Importantimplicationsfor

Generationalequity Standardsofliving Investmentinhumanandphysicalcapital Fiscalsustainability

70

Summary

Interageflowsareaninevitableconsequenceoftheeconomiclifecycle

Flowsconstraintprovidesanorganizingprinciple Transfers Assetbasedreallocations

Completeaccountingbysector Public(education,health,pensions,publicdebt) Private(especiallyfamily) Restoftheworld(remittances,internationalcapitalflows)

CompleteNTA Relationshipbetweenstocksandflows Assettransfers,assetrevaluations,andothernetchangesinassets

71

FurtherReadingConceptualFoundationsLee,R.(2003).DemographicChange,Welfare,andIntergenerationalTransfers:AGlobalOverview. GENUS

LIX(34):4370.Lee,R.D.(1994).TheFormalDemographyofPopulationAging,Transfers,andtheEconomicLifeCycle.

DemographyofAging.L.G.MartinandS.H.Preston.Washington,D.C.,NationalAcademyPress:849.Willis,R.J.(1988).Lifecycles,institutionsandpopulationgrowth:Atheoryoftheequilibriuminterestratein

anoverlappinggenerationsmodel.EconomicsofChangingAgeDistributionsinDevelopedCountries.R.D.Lee,W.B.ArthurandG.Rodgers.Oxford,OxfordUniversityPress.10638.

EmpiricalStudiesBloom,D.E.andJ.G.Williamson(1998).DemographicTransitionsandEconomicMiraclesinEmergingAsia.

WorldBankEconomicReview 12(3):41956.Bloom,D.E.andD.Canning(2001).CumulativeCausality,EconomicGrowth,andtheDemographicTransition.

PopulationMatters:DemographicChange,EconomicGrowth,andPovertyintheDevelopingWorld.N.Birdsall,A.C.KelleyandS.W.Sinding.Oxford,OxfordUniversityPress:165200.

Kelley,A.C.andR.M.Schmidt(2007).EvolutionofRecentEconomicDemographicModeling:ASynthesis.PopulationChange,LaborMarketsandSustainableGrowth:Towards aNewEconomicParadigm.A.MasonandM.Yamaguchi.Amsterdam,Elsevier:538.

72

FurtherReading(Cont)SimulationStudiesCutler,D.M.,J.M.Poterba,etal.(1990).AnAgingSociety:Opportunityor

Challenge? BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity 1990(1):156.Lee,R.,A.Mason,etal.(2003).FromTransferstoIndividualResponsibility:

ImplicationsforSavingsandCapitalAccumulationinTaiwanandtheUnitedStates. ScandinavianJournalofEconomics 105(3):339357.

Mason,A.andR.Lee(2006).Reformandsupportsystemsfortheelderlyindevelopingcountries:capturingtheseconddemographicdividend. GENUSLXII(2):1135.

NTAFundamentalsMason,A.,R.Lee,etal.(forthcoming).PopulationAgingandIntergenerational

Transfers:IntroducingAgeintoNationalAccounts.DevelopmentsintheEconomicsofAging.D.Wise.Chicago,NBERandUniversityofChicagoPress.

Lee,R.,S.H.Lee,A.Mason(2008).ChartingtheEconomicLifecycle.PopulationAging,HumanCapitalAccumulation,andProductivityGrowth,asupplementtoPopulationandDevelopmentReview33.A.Prskawetz,D.E.BloomandW.Lutz.NewYork,PopulationCouncil:208237.

Supportforthisprojecthasbeenprovidedby:

National Institute on Aging: R37National Institute on Aging: R37--AG025488 and R01AG025488 and R01--AG025247AG025247

NUPRI MEXT Academic Frontier Project, Government of JapanNUPRI MEXT Academic Frontier Project, Government of Japan

John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation

International Development Research Center (IDRC)International Development Research Center (IDRC)

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)

74

ResearchTeamsfor30Economies

ContributingResearchers

76

The National Transfer Accounts project is a collaborative effort of East-West Center, Honolulu

and Center for the Economics and

Demography of Aging, University of California - Berkeley

Lee, Ronald, Co-DirectorMason, Andrew , Co-Director Auerbach, Alan Miller, Tim Lee, Sang-Hyop Donehower, Gretchen Ebenstein, AviWongkaren, Turro

Takayesu, Ann Boe, Carl Comelatto, Pablo Sumida, Comfort Schiff, Eric Stojanovic, Diana Langer, EllenChawla, AmonthepPajaron, Marjorie Cinco

77

Japan Key Institutions: Nihon University Population Research

Institute and the Statistics Bureau of Japan, Tokyo, Japan. Ogawa, Naohiro, Country Leader

Matsukura, Rikiya Maliki

Chawla, AmonthepObayashi, SenichiKondo, Makoto Fukui, TakehiroIhara, Hajime

Suzuki, KosukeAkasaka, Katsuya

Moriki, Yoshie Makabe, Naomi Ogawa, Maki

78

AustraliaKey Institution: Australia National University

Jeromey Temple, Country LeaderBrazil

Turra, Cassio, Country Leader Lanza Queiroz, BernardoRenteria, Elisenda Perez

Chile Key Institution: United Nations Economic Commission for

Latin America and the Carribean, Santiago, Chile Bravo, Jorge

Mauricio Holz

79

Taiwan Key Institution: The Institute of Economics,

Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan. Tung, An-Chi, Country Leader

Lai, Mun Sim (Nicole) Liu, Paul K.C.Andrew Mason

China Key Institution: China Center for Economic

Research, Beijing, China.

Ling, Li, Country Leader Chen, Quilin

Jiang, Yu

80

France Wolff, Francois-Charles, Country Leader

Bommier, Antoine Thailand

Key Institution: Economics Department, Thammasat University. Phananiramai, Mathana, Country Leader

Chawla, Amonthep (Beet) Soonthornchawakan, Nongnuch

Inthornon, Suntichai India

Key Institution: Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore Narayana, M.R., Country Leader

Ladusingh, L.Mexico

Key Institution: Consejo Nacional de PoblacinPartida, Virgilio, Country Leader

Meja-Guevara, Ivn

81

Indonesia Key Institution: Lembaga Demografi, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Maliki, Country Leader Wiyono, Nur HadiNazara, Suahasil

ChotibPhilippines

Key Institution: Philippine Institute for Development Studies. Racelis, Rachel H., Country Leader

Salas, John Michael Ian S.Pajaron, Marjorie Cinco

Sweden Key Institution: Institute for Future Studies, Stockholm, Sweden.

Lindh, Thomas, Country Leader Johansson, Mats Forsell, Charlotte

82

Uruguay Bucheli, Marisa, Country Leader

Furtado, Magdalena Rodrigo Ceni

Cecilia Rodriguez South Korea

An, Chong-Bum , Country LeaderChun, Young-JunLim, Byung-In

Kim, Cheol-HeeJeon, Seung-Hoon

Gim, Eul-SikSeok, Sang-Hun

Kim, Jae-Ho

83

Austria Key Institution: Vienna Institute of Demography Fuernkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia, Country Leader

Sambt, Joze Costa Rica

Key Institution: CCP, Universidad de Costa Rica Rosero-Bixby, Luis, Country Leader

Maria Paola Zuniga Slovenia

Sambt, Joze, Country Leader Hungary

Key Institution: TARKI Social Research InstituteGal, Robert

Medgyesi, MartonFinland

Key institutions: The Finnish Center for Pensions And the Finnish Pension Alliance

Vanne, ReijoGrhn, Jukka

Vaittinen, Risto

84

United States Key Institution: Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging

Lee, Ronald, Country LeaderMiller, Tim

Ebenstein, AviBoe, Carl

Comelatto, Pablo Donehower, Gretchen

Schiff, EricLanger, Ellen

85

Kenya Mwabu, Germano

NigeriaSoyibo, Adedoyin

GermanyKluge, Fanny Annemarie

SpainPatxot, Concepci, Country Leader

Renteria, Elisenda Perez

Thankyou

Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and the EconomyBackground and MotivationObjectivesImportance of National Transfer AccountsOutlineI. National Transfer AccountNational Transfer AccountsThe Flow Account IdentityData Population by AgeMethod: Constructing NTAMethod (2)Method (3)Example:Public Education Consumption of Thailand in 1996 Aggregate Public Education Consumption for Thailand in 1996 (Millions of Baht) Per capita consumption and labor income, Thailand, 2004Per capita lifecycle deficit, Thailand, 2004Per capita private consumption, Thailand, 2004Per capita public consumption, Thailand, 2004Classification of Inter-age FlowsPer capita age reallocations, Thailand, 2004Per capita net transfers received, Thailand, 2004Per capita net intra-household transfers, Thailand, 2004Per capita net intra-household education transfers, Thailand, 2004Per capita net intra-household health care transfers, Thailand, 2004Per capita net public transfers, Thailand, 2004Per capita net public education transfers, Thailand, 2004Per capita net public health care transfers, Thailand, 2004Research on NTA and Social ProtectionChanges in Economic Lifecycle and Support SystemChanges in Economic LifecycleSupport SystemsPublic TransfersPrivate TransfersAsset-based ReallocationsSummary: Child Support SystemsSummary: Old age Support SystemsII. Changes in Age Structure and Economic Growth: Demographic DividendsMacroeconomic Effects of Demographic ChangesDemographic DividendsDemographic Dividends (2)The First Demographic DividendEconomic LifecyclesModeling the First DividendEconomic Support RatioFirst Demographic DividendSummary of the First DividendPreparation for Population AgingThe Second Demographic DividendModeling the Second Demographic DividendWealth RatioSecond Demographic DividendSummary of the Second Demographic DividendEffects of demographic changes on economic growth (1970-2000)SummarySummaryFurther ReadingFurther Reading (Cont)Support for this project has been provided by:Research Teams for 30 EconomiesContributing ResearchersThank you

Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and the Economy

Amonthep Chawla

Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)

November 8, 2010

Prepared for a Presentation at Macroeconomic Policy and Development Division, ESCAP

Background and Motivation

Changes in population age structure

Decreasing total fertility and rising life expectancy.

Economic lifecycle

Extended periods of dependency.

Complex and varied intergenerational economic systems

Families, firms, markets, the state, and civil society all play a role.

Important implications for poverty, economic growth, and generational equity.

Objectives

Develop a system of economic accounts that quantifies intergenerational flows in a comprehensive fashion.

Estimate the accounts with historical depth for economies with different cultures, levels of development, economic systems and policies.

Analyze and explain

variation in the economic lifecycle and the intergenerational economic systems.

macroeconomic effects of population aging.

Improve policy related to pensions, health care, education, and fertility.

Importance of

National Transfer Accounts

Goal: Develop policies that respond effectively to the population age transition

Requirement: a comprehensive and deep understanding of the generational economy:

Social and economic institutions

Economic flows across age groups

System of public and private obligations

Outline

National Transfer Account

Basic Concepts

Economic Lifecycle

Age reallocations

Changes in Age Structure and Economic Growth: Demographic Dividends

I. National Transfer Account

National Transfer Accounts

Measure economic flows across age groups in a systematic and comprehensive way.

Flows are identified by the economic mechanisms and the mediating institutions.

Accounts complement the UN System of National Accounts and are constructed in a manner consistent with macroeconomic aggregates.

The Flow Account Identity

Inflows

Labor Income

Asset Income

Transfer Received

Outflows

Consumption

Saving

Transfers Paid

Data

Aggregate Controls of the NT Flow Account are drawn from the National Income of Thailand (NESDB): 1981-2004.

Age Profiles are estimated, relying on information from the household socio-economic survey (SES): NSO. 11 survey years 1981, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004.

Data for the population by age are from population estimates and projections by the United Nations (UN): 1950-2050.

National Income Account of Thailand in 1996 (Billions of Baht)

Micro Data: the Socio-economic Surveys (SES)

Population by Age

Method: Constructing NTA

Private Consumption

Education: regression

Health: regression and use individual health report of SES 2002

Other: equivalence scale

Public Consumption

Education: enrollment rate & unit cost

Health: inpatient of public hospital (to be revised using NHA)

Other: per capita

Method (2)

Labor Income (tabulate from SES)

Earnings

Profits from farm & non-farm (2/3)

Asset Income (assign to Head tabulate from SES)

Profits from farm & non-farm (1/3)

Property income: rent, dividend, interest

Other: proportional to property income

Method (3)

Public Transfers

Inflows: in-kind & cash ( assign to recipients of benefits)

Outflows: taxes (based on income and consumption)

Private Transfers

Inter-household transfers

inflows: tabulate from the SES

outflows: tabulate from the SES

Intra-household transfers

Inflows: disposable inc < cons

outflows: disposable inc > cons

Example:

Public Education Consumption of Thailand in 1996

Aggregate Public Education Consumption for Thailand in 1996 (Millions of Baht)

Public formal education consumption by age is estimated by summing unit cost per student per level weighted by the number of students by age in each level

Per capita consumption and labor income, Thailand, 2004

Lifecycle surplus

Lifecycle deficit

Lifecycle deficit

The Economic Lifecycle

Per capita lifecycle deficit, Thailand, 2004

Lifecycle deficit is the difference between consumption and labor production at each age

Lifecycle Surplus Ages:26-57

Per capita private consumption, Thailand, 2004

Per capita public consumption, Thailand, 2004

Classification of Inter-age Flows

Economic form

Asset-based

Transfers

Mediating institution

Public flows are mediated by the government

Private flows are mediated by households, families, NGOs, private individuals, etc.

A Classification of NTA Reallocations.

Asset-based Age ReallocationsTransfers

Capital and Other Non-Financial AssetsCredit

PublicPublic infrastructurePublic land and sub-soil mineralsPublic debtStudent loansMoneyPublic educationPublic health careUnfunded pension plans

PrivateHousingConsumer durablesFactories, FarmsPrivate land and sub-soil mineralsInventoriesConsumer creditFamilial support of children and parentsBequestsCharitable contributions

Source: Mason, Lee et al. (2009); adapted from Lee (1994).

Per capita age reallocations, Thailand, 2004

Per capita net transfers received, Thailand, 2004

Per capita net intra-household transfers, Thailand, 2004

Per capita net intra-household education transfers, Thailand, 2004

Per capita net intra-household health care transfers, Thailand, 2004

Per capita net public transfers, Thailand, 2004

Per capita net public education transfers, Thailand, 2004

Per capita net public health care transfers, Thailand, 2004

Research on NTA and Social Protection

NTA can be used to improve understanding on the area of social protection

How much children and the elderly consume; what types of consumption

Human capital development

Mechanisms that children and, particularly, the elderly use to finance their consumption

Variation of social protection across countries

Consumption Finance by the Elderly

Intergenerational transfers are large and important for most countries

Chart1

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1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

Per Capita Lifecycle Deficits, Japan, 1984-2004

Notes

Notes

1Results are based on methodology JNTA04.0408.

2Results are per capita nominal as well as normaized by mean labor income ages 30-49 with aggregate controls.

3Asset income and saving are not fully presented here. Details are shown in asset-based reallocations sheets.

4Please note that unsmoothed private saving is zero for non-heads (particularly children). I am still trying to find a way to make smoothed private saving be zero for non-heads.

5Per capita profiles are smoothed using R super smooth with span=0.05 (except interest, dividend and rent age profiles in 1989 using span = 0.1)

6In the future work, we need to estimate public transfers in more details, i.e., beneficiaries for public cash transfers and other social security benefits have not yet analyzed in details. In addition, social security contributions for self-employed and f

7Inter-household transfer inflows and outflows need more attention to analyze.

8Please note that there is no sample weight in the data set for the year 1984.

Any comments, please email toBeet

Revised (2)

4/30/08: Adjust for macro controls for public pension and other cash transfers

Beet

1984

yen (per year)

19840123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990+Total

Lifecycle Deficit794,813784,000773,187818,787922,054998,2671,277,9011,249,0851,289,5461,345,5481,391,4191,439,5891,597,8771,657,1881,724,8351,775,3581,843,0971,678,9461,303,3901,081,029769,923499,922182,8033,356-115,869-182,388-232,857-279,941-324,098-418,561-485,564-579,464-682,996-793,211-871,404-999,247-1,096,228-1,198,550-1,282,956-1,346,174-1,402,488-1,454,972-1,500,215-1,529,985-1,569,743-1,578,816-1,546,810-1,531,300-1,461,982-1,364,749-1,247,174-1,174,603-1,029,672-949,137-827,595-717,690-526,166-343,993-92,996158,340400,558563,930737,379836,411900,264977,7891,051,1101,100,9841,166,4121,229,9491,264,9891,293,2091,344,7561,397,1581,428,3651,483,6971,540,3761,566,1401,610,4971,657,2201,685,8541,701,7381,757,3721,809,2541,886,6291,928,6261,997,8822,009,5892,011,0321,982,8161,954,600

Consumption794,813784,000773,187818,787922,054998,2671,277,9011,249,0851,289,5461,345,5481,391,4191,439,5891,597,8771,657,1881,724,8351,775,3581,843,0971,828,7781,727,2291,775,8771,774,8141,796,5161,712,3581,698,1141,691,6301,695,4731,696,2631,676,6851,649,6271,619,8801,593,2331,575,7921,567,1951,561,6961,565,2781,571,5801,574,0901,578,1151,583,2051,590,8371,594,8101,599,3151,605,7441,618,4351,628,6731,648,1911,670,0721,692,1951,724,5311,762,7811,788,9111,827,6001,850,1061,872,8181,894,1651,908,0201,915,4741,918,2851,904,1771,884,0141,865,9231,839,8641,816,8091,790,3111,764,3651,750,1741,732,8961,714,6491,711,4621,720,6701,725,4921,718,7271,724,1811,730,9171,722,1521,725,1661,743,2371,754,1491,777,4881,797,5381,807,1691,803,8931,829,9071,861,4461,924,6881,959,7302,008,4852,017,8022,018,8161,987,1241,955,431

Public Consumption205,460205,460205,460212,374256,815286,875597,699596,340592,949597,100587,314578,620660,691655,459657,739626,518605,789530,985354,438320,017302,651317,088228,978228,295213,395214,822218,111216,372214,290214,676215,065215,453215,852217,133218,402219,716221,115222,208224,021225,521226,941228,514229,936234,638239,777244,649249,589254,888260,704266,759272,742278,721284,744288,070291,412294,743298,081301,401310,878320,731330,590340,316350,185358,362367,196375,926384,519394,001413,922433,969454,122474,265493,814511,226528,957546,764564,991581,931601,872622,130642,061662,540682,268709,454739,205769,759800,059827,697827,697827,697827,697

Education0008,28954,08385,501397,685397,689396,789403,410396,149389,962474,438468,621470,317438,515417,173341,812162,230124,867104,581116,05124,91522,2335,3814,8286,1722,470000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Health48,04148,04148,04146,66545,31143,95442,59441,23138,74136,27133,74531,23828,83329,41830,00330,58431,19631,75334,78837,73040,65043,61746,64448,64350,59452,57454,51956,48256,87057,25657,64558,03458,43259,71360,98262,29663,69664,78866,60168,10169,52171,09472,51677,21882,35787,22992,16997,469103,284109,339115,323121,301127,324130,650133,992137,323140,661143,981153,458163,311173,170182,897192,765200,942209,776218,506227,099236,581256,502276,549296,702316,845336,394353,806371,537389,345407,571424,511444,452464,710484,641505,120524,848552,034581,785612,339642,639670,277670,277670,277670,277

Other157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420

Private Consumption589,353578,540567,727606,413665,239711,392680,203652,745696,597748,448804,105860,969937,1871,001,7291,067,0951,148,8401,237,3081,297,7931,372,7911,455,8601,472,1621,479,4281,483,3801,469,8191,478,2351,480,6511,478,1521,460,3141,435,3371,405,2041,378,1681,360,3391,351,3431,344,5631,346,8761,351,8641,352,9741,355,9071,359,1841,365,3161,367,8691,370,8001,375,8081,383,7971,388,8961,403,5431,420,4831,437,3061,463,8261,496,0221,516,1681,548,8791,565,3621,584,7481,602,7531,613,2771,617,3931,616,8841,593,2991,563,2831,535,3331,499,5481,466,6241,431,9491,397,1701,374,2481,348,3781,320,6481,297,5401,286,7011,271,3701,244,4621,230,3671,219,6911,193,1951,178,4011,178,2461,172,2181,175,6161,175,4091,165,1091,141,3531,147,6391,151,9931,185,4831,189,9711,208,4271,190,1051,191,1201,159,4271,127,735

Education00052,119106,667139,78684,79224,73622,96826,45736,65549,41478,85898,035118,798154,266189,022189,093190,279208,325157,299108,20165,75022,8588,3929901,95802120593106191009000000002160000122000390000000000000000000000000000000000000

Health102,09292,19182,29060,56147,36033,53621,7449,09310,56312,07313,64115,32116,78516,84716,74516,75016,78616,96021,32125,63730,75835,67840,48746,66353,00757,48562,91968,12266,70365,65764,78363,29963,14565,08366,31768,73870,81772,49274,11976,71377,23979,26081,32879,57177,40577,69375,07973,04174,86976,57576,09678,86479,14982,20386,77692,28795,21698,917101,517101,857102,230101,394101,58294,68588,48583,68879,55873,83971,03068,75267,50263,64562,34761,95659,38757,55559,48255,59153,74053,18051,75749,90851,93559,04861,68364,21363,44263,19158,97458,02157,068

Housing50,19052,98155,77159,23763,12968,38373,61680,15086,10093,573100,432107,409114,603121,897128,210134,122140,893146,088149,923150,946151,009148,058144,621140,356135,797133,097132,226131,310132,756135,601137,986141,426145,725150,240155,551160,931164,589168,791171,075174,191175,292176,714177,924179,369179,598182,969185,173186,505189,366192,930194,588198,491200,960204,843208,062210,987213,501216,104216,654216,541214,823212,337210,035205,801201,423197,699194,077190,075186,619185,008183,086179,728176,397174,215169,123167,109164,676162,829161,755162,530159,822159,544159,376159,735162,357163,688167,221170,738168,380165,530162,681

Durable39,18837,89336,59936,10637,07038,63841,29344,79648,09652,10955,55258,93962,33165,97168,96272,39876,39783,32392,124100,179108,383118,455122,847125,971127,072128,481123,656119,124113,180107,895101,25998,07696,28794,52094,77994,55193,99794,75694,70694,68294,97195,14195,74898,945100,395103,551106,334108,728111,169114,014117,516122,718125,263128,745131,075131,230131,506127,984122,271119,155115,385109,241107,805105,06199,64596,72794,80892,28689,42989,93189,55987,36787,69089,23288,57387,78588,89786,88486,37887,44884,55383,28887,46990,39393,65395,76999,19696,16994,50092,80191,102

Other451,248448,389445,529451,442465,722488,397519,814559,753599,318639,491677,600713,991753,368792,379832,467874,319922,951977,7921,042,6171,101,5351,163,0621,214,0281,260,1651,287,8071,310,3791,317,9941,313,8081,295,7091,273,3591,243,0511,216,9901,198,5181,185,4651,172,5991,167,5921,164,6521,160,0251,155,9631,155,2991,155,7981,156,5481,155,8041,157,1371,163,2551,169,4591,178,8741,195,5591,212,8361,234,8911,262,1221,280,0391,304,0571,316,9181,327,3611,336,5351,338,7231,336,9571,332,8351,308,5481,277,7291,251,6461,221,3621,188,2261,164,5531,142,8121,129,5701,111,1591,093,4741,077,4301,069,1311,055,8591,035,9541,025,0081,014,375993,898982,402981,684983,371990,972989,428985,401962,397963,183956,760985,180983,768997,951976,754986,941957,344927,747

Net Indirect Tax on Consumption-53,366-52,914-52,462-53,051-54,710-57,348-61,056-65,783-70,447-75,255-79,776-84,105-88,758-93,399-98,087-103,015-108,742-115,463-123,474-130,762-138,349-144,991-150,489-153,837-156,413-157,395-156,414-153,952-150,873-147,000-143,442-141,086-139,471-137,879-137,362-137,017-136,453-136,094-136,016-136,068-136,181-136,119-136,330-137,343-138,176-139,544-141,662-143,803-146,468-149,741-152,072-155,251-156,928-158,443-159,695-159,949-159,787-158,956-155,691-151,999-148,750-144,786-141,025-138,150-135,195-133,437-131,224-129,026-126,969-126,121-124,636-122,232-121,076-120,086-117,787-116,450-116,493-116,457-117,229-117,178-116,425-113,784-114,324-113,944-117,391-117,467-119,383-116,748-117,674-114,269-110,864

Labor Income00000000000000000149,832423,840694,8481,004,8911,296,5951,529,5551,694,7581,807,4991,877,8621,929,1191,956,6261,973,7242,038,4422,078,7982,155,2562,250,1902,354,9072,436,6822,570,8272,670,3182,776,6642,866,1612,937,0122,997,2983,054,2863,105,9593,148,4203,198,4163,227,0083,216,8823,223,4953,186,5133,127,5313,036,0843,002,2032,879,7772,821,9552,721,7602,625,7102,441,6402,262,2781,997,1731,725,6741,465,3651,275,9341,079,430953,900864,101772,386681,786613,665545,050490,720460,503425,518379,425333,759293,787241,468202,861188,009166,990140,318121,315102,15672,53552,19238,05931,10410,6038,2137,7844,308831

Compensation of Employees00000000000000000149,710423,374694,1741,003,2341,293,0341,523,6061,687,0021,795,6581,860,3391,906,4671,926,1801,934,8751,986,1072,013,2912,070,1942,145,7442,223,6912,288,9182,402,4112,486,5452,579,7782,658,7792,707,5262,750,0652,789,1512,823,4592,844,6292,884,0452,897,5112,874,8312,869,1232,821,0552,758,7952,664,6862,631,8882,512,0872,459,5832,354,9422,265,3872,084,6021,900,9761,649,4611,393,2381,138,565957,936778,835659,435582,807510,211426,871371,139315,547270,544250,066235,182208,869180,453153,687120,05194,42387,57181,53077,60071,55853,50840,59928,98116,35015,47310,6038,2137,7844,308831

Self-employed Income000000000000000001224656741,6573,5615,9497,75511,84117,52322,65330,44638,84952,33565,50785,062104,447131,216147,764168,416183,773196,886207,382229,486247,233265,135282,500303,791314,371329,496342,051354,372365,458368,735371,398370,315367,690362,372366,818360,322357,038361,302347,712332,436326,800317,999300,595294,465281,295262,175254,916242,527229,503220,177210,437190,336170,556153,306140,100121,418108,438100,43885,46062,71849,75748,64731,93623,21221,70915,63100-000

Age Reallocations794,813784,000773,187818,787922,054998,2671,277,9011,249,0851,289,5461,345,5481,391,4191,439,5891,597,8771,657,1881,724,8351,775,3581,843,0971,678,9461,303,3901,081,029769,923499,922182,8033,356-115,869-182,388-232,857-279,941-324,098-418,561-485,564-579,464-682,996-793,211-871,404-999,247-1,096,228-1,198,550-1,282,956-1,346,174-1,402,488-1,454,972-1,500,215-1,529,985-1,569,743-1,578,816-1,546,810-1,531,300-1,461,982-1,364,749-1,247,174-1,174,603-1,029,672-949,137-827,595-717,690-526,166-343,993-92,996158,340400,558563,930737,379836,411900,264977,7891,051,1101,100,9841,166,4121,229,9491,264,9891,293,2091,344,7561,397,1581,428,3651,483,6971,540,3761,566,1401,610,4971,657,2201,685,8541,701,7381,757,3721,809,2541,886,6291,928,6261,997,8822,009,5892,011,0321,982,8161,954,600

Asset-based Reallocations-23,882-9,244-11,705-8,751-2,4274,543-15,792-19,447-13,869-13,346-12,644-12,321-16,109-15,831-15,983-11,61820,9628,703-36,549-50,415-62,682-65,991-56,273-48,431-36,870-23,646-18,075-10,8287,61210,17215,28725,28635,65847,06266,50076,14186,804107,383109,679125,823157,793187,640207,268236,095248,872250,597262,687256,133244,194237,953205,021146,598108,72484,459110,368134,074216,444262,366305,793339,983385,428364,206387,425366,849333,828311,142295,893279,260281,471304,505305,301292,995281,940282,686209,160190,720196,903189,305215,647244,346213,872180,515136,68472,18048,32850,85281,06491,53993,86378,04462,224

Private Asset-based Reallocations-15,107-544-3,079-286,56913,972-5,753-8,630-2,285-9724741,508-1,514-4731455,32038,84233,009-956-3,470-2,4797,21127,57643,41160,63877,19584,48892,674111,265116,235123,173136,863151,724168,739193,218209,720227,442256,692263,982285,327325,115361,458386,870421,954440,779446,432462,536460,592451,645450,411416,685358,990317,421294,865322,908349,351429,227470,310502,356520,937553,183518,683530,997502,410460,477429,684408,632387,199383,127404,690401,511382,890365,150363,101280,401259,702267,121258,826284,834314,208275,304231,950180,287106,52476,26879,970112,730122,273124,377106,80889,239

Private Asset Income00000000000000000-897-2,273-3,380-3,6934,33713,22422,60737,93255,31266,63986,374111,447149,733189,277245,749298,450369,476427,933488,131549,322618,679642,848678,504743,435805,071857,696921,199974,762997,5821,039,4431,080,1891,122,7771,197,0701,230,9151,226,5471,237,5961,282,3311,389,4551,493,7321,628,0231,731,2051,785,2981,769,1841,794,3481,739,5921,688,6551,654,9851,572,9871,477,8541,432,5741,402,3161,319,9771,313,1421,250,1311,155,9971,049,0791,006,970871,185850,876868,052846,498831,946835,135692,268543,602416,823268,700151,112172,233210,607200,590195,436175,768156,101

Capital share of self-employed00000000000000000271913637181,5192,5103,2114,8327,4669,97413,73417,84324,81132,05942,10452,53365,82874,94385,63094,643100,685106,317116,960124,963133,138142,388152,566158,629166,323172,241178,647184,551185,326186,038184,905183,124180,914183,003180,903179,294181,288173,704164,571160,587155,769146,574142,788136,624127,033123,167117,640111,486107,495102,01991,81481,71473,25167,16160,74254,38049,50342,18138,00530,56029,95324,12820,60314,29413,3818,3516,7998,2498,1117,972

HH Operating Surplus00000000000000000351714739711,8393,3745,0547,49612,05318,71625,52534,10844,15153,83564,56576,04888,857101,220113,998125,032137,107145,586154,146160,541166,903170,953175,012178,718183,910185,332188,308188,164185,939181,264180,659175,104175,498175,129176,553173,828173,240167,352162,662153,739146,239138,159134,411129,007126,583120,324117,796110,211106,183100,62097,63488,69483,25973,87366,23858,79752,70045,89542,00033,78729,34424,89320,12415,98816,06817,58017,37017,16216,22515,289

Corporate Operating Surplus00000000000000000481893691,8088,75315,11422,32532,70542,14747,84956,87269,02186,710103,669129,176152,677186,507214,931244,513275,866315,623323,824336,718376,190413,694442,857479,465513,795521,465546,399572,181601,484658,623686,497687,253700,553739,021816,256894,969995,3181,067,6761,109,7911,104,4481,127,7121,091,1961,063,9641,041,515986,423922,865895,438877,568826,207826,863789,299729,128662,345641,771550,906544,638568,615561,822561,424570,903474,972365,592276,939171,45390,105106,962138,786132,626127,713113,59599,477

Other property income00000000000000000-1,012-2,842-4,619-7,355-8,578-9,165-10,035-10,107-10,229-14,300-14,986-15,871-13,912-9,818-1,9723,15411,13617,07821,50928,41736,24537,34739,72247,15253,30060,78070,07376,37977,93885,23388,44493,276106,626113,997110,542114,402118,950140,018159,021188,070210,835232,412235,957248,624246,060242,133240,510230,237216,522211,315208,626196,109196,575185,622170,382155,427149,682128,594129,182133,980130,817130,826131,737109,27885,09965,40140,75522,44125,98733,13031,60130,57027,39324,217

Indirect Tax on Capital Income00000000000000000417341668051,3902,0533,0073,8754,3995,2296,3467,9729,53211,87714,03817,14819,76222,48125,36429,02029,77430,95934,58838,03740,71844,08447,24047,94550,23852,60855,30360,55663,11963,18964,41167,94875,05082,28791,51398,166102,038101,547103,686100,32997,82595,76190,69584,85282,33080,68775,96576,02572,57167,03960,89859,00750,65250,07652,28151,65651,61952,49143,67133,61425,46315,7648,2859,83412,76012,19411,74210,4449,146

Less: Private Saving15,1075443,07928-6,569-13,9725,7538,6302,285972-474-1,5081,514473-145-5,320-38,842-33,906-1,31791-1,214-2,874-14,353-20,804-22,706-21,883-17,849-6,30018333,49866,105108,886146,726200,737234,715278,411321,880361,987378,866393,177418,319443,613470,826499,246533,983551,150576,907619,596671,132746,659814,230867,558920,175987,4661,066,5471,144,3801,198,7951,260,8951,282,9421,248,2481,241,1651,220,9081,157,6581,152,5751,112,5091,048,1701,023,9421,015,117936,850908,452848,620773,107683,929643,869590,784591,174600,931587,671547,111520,927416,964311,652236,537162,17674,84492,26397,87778,31771,05968,96166,862

Public Asset-based Reallocations-8,775-8,700-8,626-8,723-8,996-9,430-10,039-10,817-11,583-12,374-13,117-13,829-14,594-15,357-16,128-16,939-17,880-24,523-36,236-47,862-61,438-74,715-85,590-93,730-99,485-102,917-104,593-105,464-105,542-107,827-109,257-112,843-117,050-122,403-127,300-134,400-141,601-150,268-155,289-160,367-167,852-173,246-178,863-184,794-191,069-194,360-199,096-203,128-206,513-211,112-210,456-210,479-207,341-209,307-211,524-215,362-214,127-209,326-196,952-181,305-167,152-153,278-142,101-134,252-125,220-116,976-110,999-105,833-99,567-97,955-93,809-87,417-80,841-77,875-68,883-66,705-68,033-67,295-66,939-67,550-59,464-49,593-42,204-33,366-27,093-28,409-31,079-30,039-29,784-28,010-26,235

Public Asset Income-4,302-4,266-4,229-4,277-4,410-4,623-4,922-5,303-5,679-6,067-6,431-6,780-7,155-7,529-7,907-8,304-8,766-12,023-17,765-23,465-30,121-36,630-41,962-45,953-48,775-50,457-51,279-51,706-51,744-52,864-53,565-55,323-57,386-60,011-62,411-65,892-69,423-73,672-76,133-78,623-82,293-84,937-87,691-90,599-93,675-95,289-97,611-99,587-101,247-103,501-103,180-103,191-101,653-102,617-103,703-105,585-104,980-102,626-96,559-88,888-81,950-75,147-69,667-65,820-61,392-57,350-54,419-51,887-48,814-48,024-45,991-42,858-39,634-38,180-33,771-32,703-33,354-32,993-32,818-33,117-29,153-24,314-20,691-16,358-13,283-13,928-15,237-14,727-14,602-13,732-12,862

Less: Public Saving4,4734,4354,3974,4464,5854,8075,1175,5145,9046,3076,6867,0497,4397,8288,2218,6349,11412,50018,47024,39731,31738,08543,62847,77750,71152,46053,31553,75853,79854,96355,69257,52059,66462,39364,88968,50872,17976,59679,15681,74485,55988,30991,17294,19597,39499,072101,486103,541105,266107,610107,276107,288105,688106,691107,820109,777109,147106,700100,39392,41785,20378,13072,43368,43363,82959,62656,58053,94650,75249,93147,81744,55941,20739,69535,11234,00234,67934,30234,12134,43230,31025,27921,51317,00813,81014,48115,84215,31215,18214,27713,373

Transfers818,695793,244784,892827,538924,480993,7241,293,6941,268,5321,303,4151,358,8941,404,0621,451,9091,613,9861,673,0181,740,8181,786,9771,822,1351,670,2431,339,9381,131,444832,605565,913239,07651,787-78,999-158,742-214,782-269,113-331,710-428,733-500,851-604,750-718,653-840,273-937,904-1,075,388-1,183,032-1,305,933-1,392,636-1,471,997-1,560,281-1,642,612-1,707,484-1,766,080-1,818,615-1,829,413-1,809,497-1,787,433-1,706,177-1,602,703-1,452,194-1,321,200-1,138,396-1,033,596-937,963-851,764-742,610-606,359-398,790-181,64315,130199,724349,954469,562566,436666,646755,217821,724884,942925,445959,6871,000,2141,062,8161,114,4711,219,2051,292,9781,343,4731,376,8351,394,8501,412,8741,471,9821,521,2221,620,6881,737,0751,838,3011,877,7751,916,8181,918,0501,917,1691,904,7731,892,376

Public Transfers239,439239,817240,195247,148293,287323,249652,176646,838639,432639,960625,844613,056696,929687,437685,929648,441621,488507,815259,604163,62475,97923,882-125,403-167,035-211,937-227,726-232,260-237,478-239,458-250,064-256,279-273,976-294,788-320,379-343,325-377,123-411,628-454,373-477,302-501,219-537,587-562,607-589,470-613,290-639,368-650,214-669,257-682,477-693,031-707,610-691,696-677,237-642,954-629,520-599,378-575,842-511,344-444,699-301,171-123,47752,217205,481354,153455,638533,127595,622634,963679,694706,519710,830731,968766,165779,043795,867820,108815,834798,488792,735782,906790,774808,407851,339901,195960,494991,0301,018,5541,038,0321,045,0471,040,1521,047,0781,054,004

Public Transfer Inflows284,822284,822284,822292,268339,793371,959703,985702,595699,087703,632693,295684,123771,885766,270768,680735,309713,142633,225444,533407,638388,979404,351310,327310,064294,408296,056300,043299,250297,665298,670299,720300,249300,816302,428304,364306,646308,737310,032312,619314,505316,176318,568320,249326,565332,375338,255343,279350,547357,197365,985378,568393,143411,481434,905476,309519,350577,571619,820700,469798,651902,424985,1821,077,0551,138,6581,170,2481,190,8491,199,8151,218,2951,213,2771,209,4001,209,4661,211,1841,190,6411,192,3951,170,9421,155,5991,145,0021,135,4991,123,8631,134,8321,111,3741,104,1451,116,4551,130,8431,129,5001,163,7091,196,7601,198,4891,192,2971,190,2051,188,113

Public Consumption205,460205,460205,460212,374256,815286,875597,699596,340592,949597,100587,314578,620660,691655,459657,739626,518605,789530,985354,438320,017302,651317,088228,978228,295213,395214,822218,111216,372214,290214,676215,065215,453215,852217,133218,402219,716221,115222,208224,021225,521226,941228,514229,936234,638239,777244,649249,589254,888260,704266,759272,742278,721284,744288,070291,412294,743298,081301,401310,878320,731330,590340,316350,185358,362367,196375,926384,519394,001413,922433,969454,122474,265493,814511,226528,957546,764564,991581,931601,872622,130642,061662,540682,268709,454739,205769,759800,059827,697827,697827,697827,697

Education0008,28954,08385,501397,685397,689396,789403,410396,149389,962474,438468,621470,317438,515417,173341,812162,230124,867104,581116,05124,91522,2335,3814,8286,1722,470000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Health48,04148,04148,04146,66545,31143,95442,59441,23138,74136,27133,74531,23828,83329,41830,00330,58431,19631,75334,78837,73040,65043,61746,64448,64350,59452,57454,51956,48256,87057,25657,64558,03458,43259,71360,98262,29663,69664,78866,60168,10169,52171,09472,51677,21882,35787,22992,16997,469103,284109,339115,323121,301127,324130,650133,992137,323140,661143,981153,458163,311173,170182,897192,765200,942209,776218,506227,099236,581256,502276,549296,702316,845336,394353,806371,537389,345407,571424,511444,452464,710484,641505,120524,848552,034581,785612,339642,639670,277670,277670,277670,277

Longterm care0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Other157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420157,420

Cash Transfers79,36279,36279,36279,89482,97885,084106,286106,255106,138106,532105,981105,503111,194110,812110,940108,791107,353102,24090,09587,62086,32887,26381,34981,76981,01381,23481,93282,87883,37583,99484,65584,79584,96485,29585,96286,93187,62187,82488,59888,98489,23590,05390,31391,92792,59893,60793,69095,65996,49399,226105,826114,422126,737146,835184,898224,607279,490318,419389,591477,920571,834644,865726,870780,296803,052814,923815,296824,294799,354775,431755,344736,920696,828681,170641,985608,834580,011553,568521,991512,702469,313441,605434,187421,389390,295393,950396,702370,793364,600362,509360,417

Social Benefits69,04469,04469,04469,57672,66074,76695,96895,93795,82096,21495,66395,185100,876100,494100,62298,47397,03591,92279,77777,30276,01076,94471,03171,45170,69470,91671,61472,56073,05773,67674,33674,47774,64674,97775,64476,61377,30377,50678,28078,66678,91779,73579,99581,60982,28083,28983,37285,34186,17588,90895,508104,104116,418136,517174,580214,289269,172308,101379,273467,602561,516634,547716,552769,978792,734804,605804,978813,976789,036765,113745,026726,602686,509670,852631,667598,516569,693543,250511,673502,384458,995431,287423,869411,071379,977383,632386,384360,475354,282352,190350,099

Pension00000000000000000000211083258821,2271,4412,0043,1573,8134,4235,0755,2075,3665,6696,3077,2467,9058,0838,8169,1679,38610,16910,39611,90412,45813,35613,32815,17615,87918,47424,93933,39945,57765,600103,587143,221198,028236,882307,839395,944489,635562,446644,227697,468720,023731,696731,875740,657715,266690,888670,344651,463610,927594,875555,288521,733492,497465,670433,641423,892380,051351,879344,013330,599298,830301,793303,857277,321271,129269,037266,945

Education0005643,6785,81527,04827,04826,98727,43726,94326,52332,26831,87331,98829,82528,37323,24811,0348,4937,1137,8931,6951,512366328420168000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Health1,0891,0891,0891,0581,0279979669358788227657086546676806947077207898569229891,0581,1031,1471,1921,2361,2811,2901,2981,3071,3161,3251,3541,3831,4131,4441,4691,5101,5441,5761,6121,6441,7511,8681,9782,0902,2102,3422,4792,6152,7512,8872,9633,0383,1143,1903,2653,4803,7033,9274,1474,3714,5574,7574,9555,1505,3655,8166,2716,7287,1857,6288,0238,4258,8299,2429,62610,07810,53810,99011,45411,90112,51813,19213,88514,57215,19915,19915,19915,199

Long-term care0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Other Social Benefits67,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,95467,954

Other Cash Transfers10,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,31810,318

Public Transfer Outflows45,38345,00544,62745,12046,50648,71051,80855,75859,65563,67367,45171,06774,95678,83482,75086,86891,653125,410184,929244,014313,000380,469435,731477,100506,345523,782532,302536,728537,124548,734555,999574,225595,603622,807647,689683,769720,365764,405789,922815,724853,762881,174909,719939,855971,743988,4701,012,5361,033,0241,050,2281,073,5941,070,2641,070,3801,054,4351,064,4251,075,6881,095,1921,088,9151,064,5191,001,639922,128850,207779,700722,902683,020637,121595,227564,852538,601506,758498,570477,497445,019411,598396,528350,834339,765346,514342,763340,957344,057302,967252,806215,260170,349138,470145,155158,728153,442152,145143,127134,110

Personal Income Tax0000000000000000012,30736,43561,15691,359120,751145,407164,753176,620182,679184,497185,044181,430183,264183,369186,982191,946198,479205,609218,521235,592255,971271,321288,909309,001318,002332,836347,014361,979374,967392,723403,341413,825419,525413,033414,300404,136403,301392,777390,241359,723322,247265,581213,258155,400118,55293,16076,27962,10355,07646,19833,64430,57027,71725,22420,23217,71614,75710,5096,4526,4466,2834,4044,1043,3341,8691,4771,2181,09892542581595449

Corporate Income tax0000000000000000019751467163,4655,9838,83712,94516,68318,94022,51127,32034,32241,03551,13160,43373,82485,07596,784109,195124,931128,178133,281148,905163,750175,294189,784203,373206,409216,278226,483238,082260,700271,732272,032277,296292,523323,094354,251393,972422,613439,283437,168446,377431,922421,144412,258390,451365,293354,437347,363327,033327,293312,424288,607262,173254,029218,062215,581225,072222,383222,226225,977188,006144,711109,62067,86635,66642,33854,93552,49750,55244,96439,375

Net Indirect Tax53,36652,91452,46253,05154,71057,34861,05665,78370,44775,25579,77684,10588,75893,39998,087103,015108,742115,467123,492130,796138,516145,796151,879155,890159,420161,270160,814159,181157,219154,972152,974152,963153,509155,027157,124159,499161,818165,114165,790167,027170,769174,155177,048181,427185,416187,490191,900196,411201,771210,297215,191218,440221,339226,391234,744242,236251,301257,122257,730253,546252,436245,115238,849233,911225,890218,288213,554209,713202,934202,145197,207189,270181,974179,093168,439166,526168,773168,113168,849169,669160,095147,398139,787129,708125,675127,302132,144128,942129,417124,713120,010

social security contribution0000000000000000021,34860,37198,986143,057184,381217,260240,559256,053265,276271,854274,665275,905283,210287,086295,201305,974317,089326,390342,573354,570367,865379,130386,081392,147397,721402,613405,632411,252413,172409,938409,124402,270393,392379,973375,296358,213350,726335,804323,034297,255271,071235,206198,670162,354136,597111,05894,03383,10672,75460,87052,92344,99638,57835,65833,53629,78425,73221,91517,11913,46412,48711,62611,06510,2047,6305,7894,1322,3312,2061,5121,1711,110614119

Surplus/Deficit-8,775-8,700-8,626-8,723-8,996-9,430-10,039-10,817-11,583-12,374-13,117-13,829-14,594-15,357-16,128-16,939-17,880-24,523-36,236-47,862-61,438-74,715-85,590-93,730-99,485-102,917-104,593-105,464-105,542-107,827-109,257-112,843-117,050-122,403-127,300-134,400-141,601-150,268-155,289-160,367-167,852-173,246-178,863-184,794-191,069-194,360-199,096-203,128-206,513-211,112-210,456-210,479-207,341-209,307-211,524-215,362-214,127-209,326-196,952-181,305-167,152-153,278-142,101-134,252-125,220-116,976-110,999-105,833-99,567-97,955-93,809-87,417-80,841-77,875-68,883-66,705-68,033-67,295-66,939-67,550-59,464-49,593-42,204-33,366-27,093-28,409-31,079-30,039-29,784-28,010-26,235

ROW792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792792

Private Transfers579,256553,427544,698580,390631,194670,476641,517621,694663,984718,934778,218838,854917,057985,5821,054,8881,138,5361,200,6461,162,4281,080,335967,820756,626542,031364,479218,823132,93868,98517,478-31,635-92,252-178,669-244,572-330,774-423,866-519,894-594,579-698,265-771,404-851,560-915,334-970,778-1,022,694-1,080,005-1,118,014-1,152,790-1,179,247-1,179,199-1,140,240-1,104,957-1,013,146-895,093-760,499-643,963-495,442-404,076-338,585-275,922-231,266-161,659-97,619-58,166-37,087-5,758-4,19913,92433,30971,024120,254142,030178,423214,615227,719234,049283,773318,604399,096477,144544,985584,100611,944622,100663,575669,883719,494776,581847,271859,220878,785873,003877,017857,695838,372

Inter-household Transfers00000000000000000-38-951715729639342431555-118-288-508-525-251-200272483781751353263795841,0211,8811,6271,32393-330-2,564-3,357-5,083-5,695-6,858-6,665-7,171-7,216-6,864-7,238-7,746-7,465-6,107-5,962-5,213-4,508-4,146-4,221-3,938-3,509-3,386-3,120-3,012-2,811-2,229-1,663-1,395-941-757-798-692-333-223664174-27-526-241-444-581-45544155266

Inflows00000000000000000021663836238271,0101,1091,0921,1441,1951,1791,3191,7011,8592,2152,5742,8322,8052,9473,3003,5283,9444,6125,8336,1946,6826,5917,3246,7297,3346,9697,3617,0107,6826,9666,7186,5125,4473,7763,1683,2852,4912,4922,5072,3791,9541,8621,9161,9432,0962,0432,1432,3192,3662,2572,4102,1982,0561,9852,0572,0792,1381,8211,6951,271839750603470574658692726

Outflows00000000000000000-38-97-149-226-327-434-586-794-1,037-1,262-1,484-1,687-1,844-1,953-2,059-2,188-2,326-2,453-2,629-2,813-2,973-3,149-3,361-3,591-3,952-4,567-5,359-6,498-7,654-9,294-10,691-12,052-13,056-13,868-14,346-14,137-13,934-13,376-12,685-11,522-10,633-9,392-8,453-7,705-7,015-6,525-6,174-5,800-5,425-5,329-5,216-5,055-4,955-4,547-4,029-3,652-3,351-2,955-2,854-2,676-2,390-2,101-2,101-1,757-1,522-1,298-1,365-991-1,046-1,051-1,029-614-537-460

Intra-household Transfers579,256553,427544,698580,390631,194670,476641,517621,694663,984718,934778,218838,854917,057985,5821,054,8881,138,5361,200,6461,162,4661,080,430967,803756,469541,735364,086218,399132,62368,93017,596-31,347-91,743-178,145-244,320-330,574-423,893-520,142-594,957-698,440-771,539-851,886-915,713-971,361-1,023,715-1,081,886-1,119,640-1,154,113-1,179,340-1,178,869-1,137,675-1,101,599-1,008,063-889,399-753,641-637,299-488,270-396,859-331,721-268,683-223,520-154,194-91,512-52,204-31,874-1,249-5318,14537,24774,533123,640145,150181,435217,426229,948235,712285,168319,545399,853477,941545,677584,433611,967622,063663,511669,709719,520777,107847,512859,664879,367873,457876,973857,540838,107

Inflows579,256553,427544,698580,390631,194670,476641,517621,694663,984718,934778,218838,854917,057985,5821,054,8881,139,8401,214,0461,220,9201,211,2181,187,5331,074,686959,820872,803794,929765,387758,972767,178767,191763,589755,023744,266730,123713,361697,994683,988664,907647,926633,435623,907613,474604,366598,522599,368599,529607,017626,146653,180683,355735,882795,851852,765916,018970,6771,011,0051,035,1931,057,4771,062,2021,086,8531,076,2421,049,6911,018,054981,159922,602905,336883,670876,197878,099878,359862,912868,941853,805836,276828,597827,209842,607855,927878,896884,986885,755874,643883,834866,439897,937929,214980,689989,7331,003,676985,475991,370970,255949,139

Outflows000000000000000-1,304-13,400-58,454-130,788-219,731-318,217-418,085-508,717-576,531-632,764-690,042-749,582-798,538-855,333-933,167-988,586-1,060,697-1,137,253-1,218,136-1,278,946-1,363,348-1,419,465-1,485,321-1,539,620-1,584,835-1,628,081-1,680,408-1,719,008-1,753,643-1,786,357-1,805,015-1,790,855-1,784,954-1,743,945-1,685,250-1,606,406-1,553,316-1,458,948-1,407,864-1,366,914-1,326,161-1,285,722-1,241,047-1,167,753-1,101,895-1,049,928-982,409-922,655-887,191-846,423-801,664-754,459-733,209-681,477-651,515-623,857-600,564-543,428-507,664-442,754-377,986-333,220-300,553-273,789-252,579-220,323-196,729-178,416-152,107-133,178-130,069-124,309-112,018-114,397-112,715-111,032

Education, Net00046,07293,472121,70370,93620,41619,16722,27831,44343,01768,93486,384105,803138,769171,300172,255176,045195,549144,19597,56156,35215,2801,886-4,802-4,205-7,616-9,860-13,232-16,983-21,604-25,982-30,936-35,008-39,441-43,261-47,145-51,825-57,753-64,973-73,056-83,124-93,837-103,134-111,086-116,709-120,770-116,233-108,885-97,080-85,166-67,314-56,047-45,583-36,642-27,114-22,306-16,503-12,192-10,128-9,276-8,140-7,639-7,460-6,630-6,501-6,830-7,184-7,301-8,490-9,261-8,950-8,751-7,709-6,045-4,779-4,007-3,867-3,833-3,846-3,931-3,931-2,896-2,422-1,940-1,161-717-652-693-734

Education, Inflows00046,07293,472121,70370,93620,41619,16722,27831,44343,01768,93486,384105,803138,784171,513173,322178,379199,236149,473103,96363,12521,8638,0129441,81107800018600000000000140000011900030000000000000000000000000000000000000

Education, Outflows000000000000000-14-213-1,067-2,334-3,686-5,278-6,401-6,773-6,584-6,125-5,746-6,016-7,616-9,938-13,232-16,983-21,604-26,167-30,936-35,008-39,441-43,261-47,145-51,825-57,753-64,973-73,056-83,124-93,837-103,274-111,086-116,709-120,770-116,233-109,004-97,080-85,166-67,314-56,050-45,583-36,642-27,114-22,306-16,503-12,192-10,128-9,276-8,140-7,639-7,460-6,630-6,501-6,830-7,184-7,301-8,490-9,261-8,950-8,751-7,709-6,045-4,779-4,007-3,867-3,833-3,846-3,931-3,931-2,896-2,422-1,940-1,161-717-652-693-734

Health, Net107,42881,34972,37052,88341,38129,17018,8007,6098,86810,26711,73213,30114,68314,85214,85414,94114,65113,35914,34813,81212,57510,4139,0757,6146,0654,5691,786-1,859-8,632-14,726-19,762-23,439-27,354-29,028-28,561-28,349-26,440-24,551-20,991-20,379-19,692-20,664-20,551-22,149-23,063-24,080-22,806-23,089-21,805-18,623-15,763-13,408-11,086-9,616-7,786-8,550-6,875-3,474-3,835-3,838-2,103-2,063-3,578-2,956-6,496-6,542-9,392-11,911-11,131-9,873-10,435-8,424-3,370-1,6423,1969,29514,51316,64019,20320,41921,21822,25224,51832,14636,78839,25339,78840,21937,31237,71138,110

Health, Inflows107,42881,34972,37052,88341,38129,17018,8007,6098,86810,26711,73213,30114,68314,85214,85414,95814,82714,24016,34417,48918,40619,27120,72322,12824,24626,47829,19331,38830,25229,99329,10527,86826,72926,83926,38626,57426,68726,91427,59427,74227,35627,38627,74526,42725,45525,23424,66624,07325,05027,06327,59129,90230,91432,23034,08235,82137,05739,73340,89640,63441,55640,32438,83736,60333,47631,87530,05027,47526,42725,86824,78524,02824,79724,76525,02226,10228,20927,85728,51028,76029,21729,31331,35538,28242,11344,29644,35444,47341,40341,35341,303

Health, Outflows000000000000000-17-176-881-1,996-3,677-5,831-8,859-11,648-14,514-18,182-21,909-27,407-33,247-38,884-44,719-48,867-51,308-54,083-55,867-54,947-54,923-53,127-51,465-48,585-48,120-47,048-48,050-48,296-48,576-48,518-49,314-47,472-47,162-46,855-45,686-43,353-43,310-42,000-41,846-41,868-44,371-43,932-43,207-44,731-44,472-43,659-42,387-42,415-39,560-39,973-38,417-39,442-39,386-37,559-35,741-35,220-32,453-28,167-26,407-21,825-16,806-13,697-11,217-9,307-8,341-7,999-7,061-6,837-6,136-5,325-5,043-4,566-4,254-4,090-3,642-3,193

Housing, Net50,16152,94955,73859,20263,09268,34373,57280,10286,04993,518100,373107,345114,535121,825128,134134,042140,777145,765148,969148,942147,895142,973136,126128,416119,331107,95994,67881,34367,09651,31535,55418,9781,828-17,563-35,535-53,980-71,048-89,413-103,153-115,971-126,904-137,361-143,856-150,028-156,807-163,227-163,697-167,943-164,732-157,086-146,573-141,480-128,507-125,503-121,542-121,389-113,819-110,121-98,426-89,662-74,694-63,150-50,241-47,326-41,472-40,394-32,053-31,290-20,658-14,739-6,202-4,1719,15617,25129,82442,12753,79763,49975,30983,49696,233104,307112,552121,869132,192133,376134,069137,985136,017134,922133,826

Housing, Inflows50,16152,94955,73859,20263,09268,34373,57280,10286,04993,518100,373107,345114,535121,825128,134134,042140,810145,978149,711150,520150,234146,664142,043136,497130,223124,224118,878113,575109,721106,489103,527101,05399,13797,04896,04694,97693,36191,68290,55290,02588,89988,52788,99188,84387,74488,73489,42688,57490,68193,95096,22898,707102,132103,605104,818104,877106,730108,639110,693111,743113,949114,735115,121112,570111,155108,224108,482106,468107,973108,704110,645109,921112,681114,134116,020119,307121,940124,205127,890131,271134,588137,628141,184145,539150,903151,682153,511156,450154,575153,395152,215

Housing, Outflows0000000000000000-33-213-742-1,578-2,339-3,691-5,917-8,080-10,892-16,265-24,200-32,232-42,624-55,174-67,973-82,075-97,308-114,611-131,582-148,956-164,409-181,095-193,705-205,996-215,804-225,888-232,847-238,871-244,551-251,960-253,123-256,518-255,413-251,037-242,801-240,188-230,640-229,108-226,361-226,266-220,549-218,760-209,119-201,405-188,642-177,885-165,362-159,897-152,626-148,619-140,535-137,758-128,631-123,442-116,847-114,091-103,525-96,883-86,196-77,180-68,143-60,706-52,581-47,775-38,354-33,321-28,632-23,669-18,711-18,306-19,442-18,465-18,557-18,473-18,389

Durable, Net39,19037,89536,60036,10737,07238,63941,29444,79848,09852,11155,55458,94162,33365,96368,92672,29375,39479,46884,71688,00990,21390,96989,72184,89478,37570,42860,02747,84334,75822,75712,5331,476-7,914-17,472-25,676-35,828-42,125-50,471-54,772-61,205-65,956-71,748-75,794-79,840-82,520-83,969-86,589-89,155-92,195-91,152-90,344-86,525-80,913-78,442-79,317-77,631-81,320-78,559-68,929-60,644-54,903-41,332-32,086-30,983-26,329-19,375-16,210-15,726-7,889-4,7581905,33713,99818,75928,70634,74841,48047,25151,26255,77459,94361,95769,31777,29184,02087,17991,74589,47588,34586,31284,279

Durable, Inflows39,19037,89536,60036,10737,07238,63941,29444,79848,09852,11155,55458,94162,33365,96368,92672,29375,44079,85785,49389,84493,02396,41297,50296,27094,07592,26987,55281,92475,16069,46063,98359,93657,00655,01154,19252,36051,10350,03049,79348,24947,57747,27347,46249,06849,63551,36852,29052,69852,56954,67656,53260,08662,22663,97863,83862,65260,16857,79256,26755,07453,91652,94753,92052,69451,11151,55551,73051,24551,73552,92254,91756,67459,27362,25566,22667,75070,52771,69772,29274,58874,66374,52380,37285,66590,13192,49096,33693,44692,13890,69189,243

Durable, Outflows0000000000000000-46-389-776-1,835-2,810-5,443-7,781-11,377-15,700-21,841-27,525-34,081-40,402-46,703-51,450-58,460-64,920-72,483-79,867-88,188-93,227-100,501-104,565-109,454-113,533-119,020-123,256-128,908-132,154-135,337-138,879-141,853-144,764-145,829-146,876-146,612-143,139-142,420-143,154-140,283-141,488-136,351-125,196-115,717-108,819-94,279-86,006-83,677-77,440-70,930-67,940-66,971-59,624-57,679-54,727-51,337-45,275-43,497-37,519-33,002-29,047-24,446-21,030-18,814-14,720-12,566-11,055-8,373-6,111-5,312-4,590-3,971-3,793-4,379-4,965

Other, Net382,478381,234379,990386,125396,177412,621436,915468,769501,802540,760579,115616,250656,572696,558737,171779,529807,514788,004738,395658,350557,460450,233370,752306,809259,223214,949174,532126,30071,249-2,422-55,948-128,416-203,620-281,531-347,175-430,950-496,101-557,189-610,347-655,618-703,147-743,743-773,375-796,812-813,070-810,266-778,212-758,215-704,609-634,659-559,121-503,032-422,924-385,147-357,711-330,471-308,913-273,411-220,722-188,866-167,404-146,372-130,077-128,976-112,911-86,344-55,171-45,925-6,85318,41243,73164,549120,104151,104209,198269,800317,981357,512393,59241

Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and … · Population Aging, Intergenerational...

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Transcript of Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers, and … · Population Aging, Intergenerational...