Population Ageing & Longer Lives –

Global triumph, global challenge

Toby PorterChief Executive, HelpAge International

HelpAge International

Our vision is a world in which older people fulfill their potential to lead

dignified, active, healthy and secure lives.

-

Global ageing is a triumph of human development

Twentieth Century advances...

Health and sanitation

Education

Poverty reduction

Development progress...

more people are surviving childhood

more women are surviving childbirth

fewer children are being born...

...and people are living longer

Scale and rate of global population ageing

199019952000200520102013202020302040

Proportion of population aged 60+ in 2012 and 2050

Rapid ageingtime taken to increase the proportion

of older people from 7% to 20%

Germany United Kingdom

Russia Brazil Mexico Kenya South Africa0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

40

80

40

26 2630

4140

47

31

13 11

22 21

7-14% 14-20%

OLD-AGESUPPORTRATIO

Source: Aging Profile 2013 – United NationCited on 28 June, 2014

2013

15-64 yrs

65+yrs

9.1

2030

5.0

2050

2.8

OLD-AGESUPPORTRATIO

Source: Aging Profile 2013 – United NationCited on 28 June, 2014

2030

4.2

2013

15-64

65+

8.2

2050

2.6

OLD-AGESUPPORTRATIO

Source: Aging Profile 2013 – United NationCited on 28 June, 2014

2030

8.7

2050

6.511.7

2013

15-64

65+

The 21st century is the century of ageing

“The new millennium closes the first chapter in human history: when we were young” (Paul Wallace: “Agequake”)

Life expectancy is extending worldwide, fertility rates are falling, and demographic ageing is accelerating -

“The ageing of humanity across the world is a defining stage in history. It will change everything from business and finance to society and culture”

4 things to do

• Act early

• Act strategically

• Act positively

• Act together

4 things to do

• Act early

• Act strategically

• Act positively

• Act together

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

2070

2075

2080

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Child Dependency Ratio Aged Dependency Ratio Total Dependency Ratio

Low TDR2000-2020

36.9

Source: United Nation DatabaseCited on 1st July, 2014

Importance of Acting Early

1980 1990 2000 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 20800

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

86

76

61

43 41.4 41 42 43 44 4650

5460

67

74 76 7881 83

Child Dependency Ratio Aged Dependency Ratio Total Dependency Ratio

Source: United Nations data baseCited on 26 June, 2014

Aggregate Dependency Ratio – Vietnam

1980 – 2080 (Medium Variant)

4 things to do

• Act early

• Act strategically

• Act positively

• Act together

How consumption in Old-Ageis covered?

Saving through the working life period that provide income

- Pension (Contributory) – Smoothing consumption to save for regular repayment in old age

- Assets – Which can provide income, such physical property, stocks, saving

Mainly family support, frequently within a household (but also remittances or financial support from family members)

Indirect (i.e. access to Health services, LTC, transport subsidies)Direct: Social Cash transfer (Social Pensions)

ASSETPRIVATE

TRANSFERPUBLIC

TRANSFER

Support system for OP indeveloped countries

AUT GER HUN SLO SPA SWE USA

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Labor income Asset-based Re-allocation Private transfer Public transfer

Source: www.ntaccounts.org Cited on 26 June, 2014

Support system for OP in Asian countries

JPN PRC IND INO ROK PHI TWA THA

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Labor income Asset-based Re-allocation Private transfer Public transfer

Source: www.ntaccounts.org Cited on 26 June, 2014

United Kingdom

Iceland Japan South Korea

Brazil Chile Mexico Thailand0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

10.11

35.78

19.86

30.96

68.5

19.8

27.3223.9

Labor Force Participation Rate of OP aged 65+

Perc

enta

ge

Source: International Labor Organisation database.Cited on 1st July, 2014

The labor force participation rate of Older People aged 65 and above in other countries

Moving the boundaries of work

012345678910

11

12

13

14

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17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90+

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Consumption Labor IncomeLabor Income within legal retirement age

Labor Income as working time prolonged

Continuum of Care

VolunteerHome Care

PaidHome Care

Day Care

Home forThe Aged

Short stay

Nursing Home

Difficulties of ADL & IADLOf OP

Institutional careCommunity-based care

Source: Help Age Korea

Cost

The importance of Self-care

1

2

With Self-CareWithout Self-Care

Per capita labor income and consumption profile

Japan, 2004

USA, 2003

Source: www.ntaccounts.org Cited on 26 June, 2014

4 things to do

• Act early

• Act strategically

• Act positively

• Act together

A triumph seen as a crisis

Many low- and middle-income countries are said to be “growing old before they grow rich”

Media headlines on aging...

“Aging population may explode global economy by 2050”

“Silver Tsunami”

“World faces ageing population time bomb says UN”

Negative attitudes toward ageing create:

a lack of preparedness (governments and societies)

fear of old age & a wish to avoid it

a reaction against older people (generational competition)

fear-mongering today reinforces a fatalist approach to the future

Old age is seen as a disease

older people frequently report this attitude among health staff

Older people are seen as a problem

economic pressures are challenging traditional caregiving

Older people are seen as a threat

destabilising economies and societies

4 things to do

• Act early

• Act strategically

• Act positively

• Act together

ACTING TOGETHER At Family level

Problem

Compartmentalisation of different age groups

Excluding older people, their needs, vulnerabilities, contributions and capabilities runs counter to the reality of the fabric and economy of households across the world

ACTING TOGETHER: at Community level

Problem

Increasing isolation, family separation due to migration, work requirements

Lack of community-based facilities – health and community centres

Response

Village-based older people's associations - foster social bonds and help older people to support each other

training on older people's health

“age-friendly” health consultations

training on home-based care

home care volunteers for frail older people

ACTING TOGETHER: At National Level

Problem:

Political voice and power of older people is not sufficiently organised or heard

ACTING TOGETHER: At times of Crisis

Problem

Older people are especially vulnerable to

natural disasters

conflict

long-term crisis – drought, food shortages

ACTING TOGETHER: Around the World

As a global community of older people, and advocates for their rights

• Exchanging information, ideas and best practice• Coming together as a moral community at times of crisis• Combatting ageism, exclusion and discrimination• Joining forces for political and advocacy priorities

Ageing in the “post-2015” agenda

a forward-looking global agenda on health, poverty, rights, the environment -

must recognize demographic change and global ageing

needs a life-course based, inclusive approach

“… As the international community embarks on...the post-2015 development agenda, it is clear that the issue of population ageing should be fully addressed as part of this process”.

Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General

A UN Convention on the rights of older people

Growing concern over challenges to older people’s rights…

…and abuses – physical, social, financial

UN review of the Madrid International Plan of Action on Ageing -

major obstacles to older people’s “participation, inclusion & social integration”, including discrimination and abuse

Global AgeWatch Index

• First-ever measure of quality of life and well-being of older people around the world• Uses the latest data available from World Bank,

WHO, ILO, and Gallup World View• Covers 91 countries representing 89% of the

world’s older people

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andom

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lickr

Four domains and thirteen indicators

Global AgeWatch Index - overall rankings

A new view of old age

Focus on the individual and not the age – her/his capabilities and assets, not deficits

Old age is not the problem... ...Societies need to adjust– social structures, physical environments, attitudes

Thank you