Prof Graham CurriePublic Transport Research GroupMonash Institute of Transport StudiesMonash University

Populate or Perish – Is a Big Australia Better?

Infrastructure demand, population and the future of Melbourne

Burwood Electorate Conference for the Liberal Party

8th August 2017

Smart Management of Infrastructure DemandPopulate or Perish – Is a Big Australia Better?

Introduction

The Problem

Limited Solutions

New Ideas

3

Considering:– Infrastructure Demand

– Conventional approaches to meeting demand

– Alternative and smarter approaches

This session considers Smarter ways to manage future (transport) infrastructure demands in Melbourne

4

…and is structured as follows

LimitedSolutions

New IdeasThe Problem

Introduction

The Problem

Limited Solutions

New Ideas

2007

2030

8

The future is high density cities

9

Since 2001 Melbourne population has grown by 1.1M (30%); we added Adelaide to Melbourne in the last 15 years

3.6 3.63.6

3.73.8

3.83.9

4.04.1

4.24.3

4.34.4

4.54.6

4.7

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

2001

-2

2002

-3

2003

-4

2004

-5

2005

-6

2006

-7

2007

-8

2008

-9

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16e

2016

-17e

520

Population Growth (M)

YearP

opul

atio

n (M

)

10

Melbourne is expected to increase in size by another 1‐2M people in 20‐30 years

0.35

0.67

0.98

1.27

1.55

1.82

2.08

2.33

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Growth(M)

Year

Source: Victoria in Future (2012)

Forecast Melbourne Population Growth

Population GrowthTotal (M)

StopPress:LatestForecast 8M; 

10M in 2050s

11

Urban traffic congestion in Melbourne costs $3B p.a. (2005) and will double by 2020

3

6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1995

2020

Cost of Urban Traffic Congestion - Melbourne

Cost $Aust Billion (2006)

Source: BTRE (2006)

Yea

r

Business DelayCosts

Share of 1995 Costs

Private VehicleDelay Costs

EnvironmentalImpacts

12

Congestion ‘hotspots’ are expected to spread spatially….

Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion

13

….and in Time

Source: VCEC (2006) Inquiry into Managing Transport Congestion

Introduction

The Problem

Limited Solutions

New Ideas

15

We are trying to build our way out of the Infrastructure Gap

• $700B Australian Infrastructure Investment Deficit

• 1.6% of Australian GDP invested in Infrastructure; highest in the OECD

16

New Roads are a BIG part of this…

North East Link Options

Western Distributor

East West Link

17

...but passenger use of cars is increasingly inefficient…

18

..and new roads are insignificant to the whole Melbourne transport problem

19

Public Transport Investment is highly volume effective

1 Rail Tunnel=4.8 Westgate Freeways

=

Note: Assumes a 2 way rail tunnel carrying 24 trains an hour at and average load of 800 = 38,400/hr and a freeway lane = 2000 vehicles an hour/Lane

20

Public Transport Investment is highly volume effective

21

But Melbourne Metro Is a TINY dint in Melbourne rail transport needs; which has a significant legacy liability

The RailReliability Legacy

Source:  Adam Carey, The Age, ‘Signal failures are causing chronic rail delays’ 23/10/2013

Reported Signaling Disruptions

• 1,900 signal failures p.a. (12 months to August 2013)

• 5.2 per day

• Biggest Locations:

• Flinders Street Station 89

• North Melbourne 71

• Newport 51

Metro Trains

"We are installing advanced computer technology which improves control of the signalling system, but our field equipment is outdated and requires replacing,"

22

Despite progress; we have under-invested in public transport – and are now going backwards

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2001

-2

2002

-3

2003

-4

2004

-5

2005

-6

2006

-7

2007

-8

2008

-9

2009

-10

2010

-11

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16e

2016

-17e

Rail Tram Bus Total

Index of Public Transport Service Kms p.a (2001-2=100)

Year

Veh

icle

Km

s p.

a. (

2001

-2=

100)

3.6 3.63.6

3.73.8

3.83.9

4.04.1

4.24.3

4.34.4

4.54.6

4.7

3

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.8

4

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.8

5

2001-2

2003-4

2005-6

2007-8

2009-10

2011-12

2013-14

2015-

16e

520

Population Growth (M)

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

(M)

Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

23

…in last 10 years, per person service increased 22% then declined since 2011 (we have declined by 9% points); recent trend is flat

Source: Department of Transport/ Public Transport Victoria Annual Reports

100.0

101.8102.4

100.3101.6

105.1

107.3

111.6

113.9

121.6

119.4120.8

112.7113.0

113.6 112.9

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16e

2016-17e

Year

Relative Service Level Per Head

Service Levels (Vkms

supplied)Per Capita

24

In 20 Years:• 95%+ of Our Transport Infrastructure 

will be Whats in Operation TODAY

A stark fact is: our current infrastructure is most of what the future holds

25

And we have a gigantic infrastructure funding gap

Introduction

The Problem

Limited Solutions

New Ideas

27

INVEST, INVEST, INVEST, INVEST – SERVICE LEVELS

100.0

101.8 102.4

100.3101.6

105.1

107.3

111.6

113.9

121.6

119.4120.8

112.7113.0

113.6 112.9

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16e

2016-17e

Year

Relative Service Level Per Head

Service Levels (Vkms

supplied)Per Capita

28

INVEST, INVEST, INVEST, INVEST – RAIL RELIABILITY

160

800

900

1,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Years

Source: Land Transport Authority of Singapore

Singapore Plan for Rail Reliability Improvement

In Service kms

Between Failure(000)

20ish Melbourne

Singapore

29

INVEST, INVEST, INVEST, INVEST – TRAM/BUS RAPID TRANSIT

30

Get Sustainable Funding

Employment Tax /Versement Transport

MAKE THE PROBLEM FUND THE SOLUTION

31

Take a new approach to discussing Congestion “SOLUTIONS”

Politican“We will Solve Congestion”

Congestion Can Never Be Solved

Expectations Raised

Congestion Gets Worse

Big Investment

Credibility Loss

Change Government

NEGATIVE SPIRAL POSITIVE APPROACH

Politican“Congestion CANNOT be solved – we reduce worst impacts”

Congestion Can Never Be Solved

Expectations LOWERED

Big Investment

Congestion Outcomes as Expected

Credibility Gain

NO Change Government

32

Make a shift to MANAGE DEMAND not provide SUPPLY

33

TDM Measures – Politically HARD but necessary

34

In March 2013 I was here explaining how congested London successfully ran the largest Olympic games in History

35

This was achieved using TDM

Olympic Travel Demand Management Measures

A. Travel CapacityCreation Measures

B. Travel BehaviourChange/Marketing

C. TrafficEfficiency Measures

D. TrafficBans

E. Public TransportEmphasis

Source: Currie G and Delbosc (2011) ‘Assessing Travel Demand Management for the Summer Olympic Games’  TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD Journal of the Transportation Research Board  Volume 2245 / 2011 Pages 36‐48