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POPSCI.COM JANUARY 2009 POPULAR SCIENCE 05

JOHNB.CARNETTANDPAULWOOTTON;COURTESYXPRIZEFOUNDATION;COURTESYMISSOULACOUNTYSHERIFFSOFFICE

this months guide to innovation and discoveryjanuary 09 VOLUME 274 #1

42

b Concepts &Prototypes

42 STEALTH REBORNInside the Air Forces secretplans for a bomber that willbarely register on radarand might even y without apilot. By Dawn Stover

b P op S ci Predicts

46 YOUR GUIDE TO THE

TOP SCIENCE STORIESOF 2009We forecast the majorscientic developmentsof the coming year: thespace missions to watch,the invention prizes you canwin and, oh, a little studythat might show whetheryour cellphone is killing you.

b Fieldwork

54 KILLERCONNECTIONThere are far more serial

murderers on the loose thanwe think. The Center forHuman Identication usespowerful DNA techniquesto examine victimsandcloses the coldest, darkestcases in the process.By Jessica Snyder Sachsb the futureof energy

64 THIS MACHINE MIGHT SAVE THE WORLDTwo Canadian tinkerers

embark on an improbablequest to create nuclearfusion in an ofce-parkwarehouse. By Josh Dean

64

46

54

b How It Works

62 DIGITALMAPMAKINGTo build the maps forGoogle and your GPS gad-get, a team of hundreds ofdrivers trolls the streetswith cameras on theirvans. By Doug Cantor

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06 POPULAR SCIENCE JANUARY 2009

BLOGS AND MORE

FAST FUN: MORE 5-MINUTE PROJECTS

POPSCIs how-to crew is back with six new videos.Learn how to make a spectrometer, geek-chiccuff links, and moreall in less time than it takes to fixa sandwich. Check out popsci.com/freshfiveminutes .

OOZING ANIMALSWeak stomachs be warned: We bring you a new

and nauseating gallery of Natures GrossestCreatures. Point and stare, at popsci.com/gross .

INVESTIGATING THE INFOMERCIALS

Can that treatment really grow your hair back? Do those electronic pestrepellers actually work? Our new column As Seen on TV reveals thetruth behind the late-night ads, at popsci.com/tvtruth .

JOIN US FOR A THRILL RIDEResident motorcycle guru Matt Cokeley visited Berlin to ogle the newBuell 1125 CR, grill its designers about bike tech, and take a high-speed test drive. See video of his adventure at popsci.com/buell .

RETURN OF THE BODACIOUS BOTSCant get enough alluring photos of female robots?Weve whipped up another gallery showing howscience-fiction writers, artists and engineers rep-resent women, at popsci.com/fembot .

78

3320

REGULARS MEGAPIXELS14 A blue chicken embryo; a dark hall to nuclear waste.

WHATS NEW19 RECREATIONCooling molten metal faster to build a better motorbike.20 THE GOODSA 3- D GPS gadget; a guitar that records itself.22 HOME TECHPower tools get more power, thanks to a new motor.30 GADGETSWhats next for Googles groundbreaking cellphone?

HEADLINES33 ENVIRONMENTWhy climate-change models underestimate the problem.34 DEFENSE TECHScanners that check your body to predict criminal acts.36 WHATS THE BIG IDEA?Entrepreneur Elon Musk on Teslas new electric sedan.40 PLANET FIXERSMaking electricity from hot streets, and more.

HOW 2.073 YOU BUILT ?!A poker table that turns a card game into a TV event.76 GRAY MATTERPowder in a owerpot becomes titanium metal.77 CHEAP TRICKSConnect your Xbox to the Web with an old router.79 ASK A GEEKWith automated reminders, youll never forget anything.

FYI80 The best job on Mars. Plus: Will corn pop in space?

OTHER STUFF10 FROM THE EDITOR12 THE INBOX96 PPX: THE POP SCI PREDICTIONS EXCHANGE

LEAN MACHINE Our bike expert reviews thisultra-sleek two-wheeler.

WHAT

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A T T

TechPresident

POPSCI.COM10 POPULAR SCIENCE JANUARY 2009

On October 30 , just five days before the presidential election, BarackObama did something that snapped my head back: He devoted a solidchunk of an interview on an evening news show to detailing his plans,if elected, to overhaul the nations electrical grid.

If were going to be seriousabout renewable energy, hesaid, I want to be able to get

wind power from North Dakotato population centers like Chi-cago. And were going to haveto have a smart grid if we wantto use plug-in hybrids and we

want to be able to have ordinary consumers sell the electricity thats generated from those carbatteries back into the grid.

Wow, I thought, hes making offhand reference to subtle and sophisti-cated ideas about renewable energy. Whats more, his analysis is spot-onthe grid is the often-overlooked key to the successful propagation of any legitimate new alternative-energy economy. And the fact that he wasspending precious airtime in the campaigns waning days pushing such atechno-wonk agenda struck me as a particularly encouraging sign that thispresident-elect is serious about innovation. In the lead-up to his inaugura-tion, theres talk of everything from creating a more transparent and respon-sive government with the kind of Web technology that made the Obamacampaign successful, to using a bailout of U.S. automakers as a way of com-pelling them to build cleaner vehicles.

Those are just a few of the portents suggesting that, as of the 20th of this month, well have a truly science-minded and tech-savvy president in

the White House. Im eager to see him get down to business.

MARK JANNOT

mark.jannot @bonniercorp.com

TH ERE AREENCOURAGINGSIGNS THAT THISPRESIDENT-ELECTIS SERIOUS ABOUTINNOVATION.

Editor-in-Chief Mark JannotDeputy Editor Jacob WardCreative Director Sam Syed

EDITORIALExecutive Editor Mike HaneyArticles Editor Michael MoyerEditorial Production Manager Felicia PardoSenior Editor Nicole DyerSenior Technology Editor Sen Captain

Copy and Research Director Rina BanderSenior Associate Editors Doug Cantor, Seth Fletcher,Martha HarbisonAssociate Editors Lauren Aaronson, Bjorn CareyEditorial Assistant Amy GeppertEditor at Large Dawn StoverContributing Technology Editor Steve MorgensternContributing Editors Eric Adams, Theodore Gray, Eric Hagerman,Joseph Hooper, Suzanne Kantra Kirschner, Preston Lerner, GregoryMone, Rena Marie Pacella, Dave Prochnow, Jessica Snyder Sachs,Rebecca Skloot, Mike Spinelli, Elizabeth Svoboda, Kalee Thompson,Phillip Torrone, James Vlahos, Speed WeedContributing Troubadour Jonathan CoultonContributing Futurist Andrew ZolliEditorial Intern Greg Soltis

ART AND PHOTOGRAPHYArt Director Matthew CokeleyPhoto Editor Kristine LaMannaStaff Photographer John B.CarnettSenior Designer Stephanie OHaraContributing Artists Kevin Hand, Nick Kaloterakis, Graham Murdoch,Bob Sauls, Paul WoottonPhoto Intern Ilona Lieberman

POPSCI.COMDigital Content Director Megan MillerActing Digital Content Manager Taylor HengenAssociate Web Editors Paul Adams, Abby Seiff

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Chairman Jonas BonnierChief Executive Officer Terry SnowChief Operating Officer Dan AltmanChief Financial Officer Randall KoubekVice President, Consumer Marketing Bruce MillerVice President, Production Lisa EarlywineVice President, E-Media Howard RothVice President, Enterprises Systems Shawn LarsonVice President, Human Resources Cathy HertzVice President, Corporate Communications Dean TurcolBrand Director John MillerPublishing Consultant Martin S. WalkerCorporate Counsel Jeremy ThompsonFor service anytime, please use our Web site: popsci.com/ customerservice . You can also call 800-289-9399 ; for Canadianand foreign, please call 386-597-4279 . Or you may write toPOPULAR SCIENCE, P.O. Box 420235, Palm Coast, FL 32142-0235 .

THEFUTURE

NOW

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CorrectionsHD radio is not high-denition [Coby HDR 700; The Goods, Oct. 2008].

The LHCs magnet sections each weigh38.5 tons, not 10 [Breaking Open theUnknown Universe, Oct. 2008].

Beth Noveck is a professor at New YorkLaw School, not New York University [Dear Mr. President, Nov. 2008].

The Shimano Dura-Ace Di2 componentset [The Best of Whats New, Dec.2008] costs $2,100, not $150.

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Send letters to theeditor to letters@ popsci.com. Sendscience questions tofyi@ popsci.com.Comments may beedited for lengthand clarity. We regretthat we cannot answerunpublished letters.

THE

FUTURENOW

12 POPULAR SCIENCE JANUARY 2009 POPSCI.COM

[email protected]

ElectriedPower Struggle [November2008], about the quest tobuild the Chevy Volts massivebattery, really charged up ourreaders, becoming one of themost discussed stories online.While some questioned the Voltsfeasibility and cost, most agreedthat its environmental benetsare well worth the effort. Weighin at .

True, a plug-in would make sense fora majority of commuters, but thereare denitely hurdles to overcome.The current electric infrastructurecouldnt handle pumping electricity to millions of cars. Replacingtodays gas-distribution process

with electric charging stations will not be quick, easy or cheap.BobVia e-mail

We need to let carmakers know we want to get through this hybridphasethe transition from gasolineto full electric carsas soon aspossible and that we want cars thatare designed to have the generatorsremoved and swapped for batteries.billdaleComment on popsci.com

Power Struggle states Americansburn 390 million gallons of gasolineevery day, each of which pumps 20pounds of carbon dioxide into theair. How is it possible to burn sixpounds of liquid and turn it into 20pounds of CO 2?L.L. Holloway Vancouver, Wash.

Editor Seth Fletcher responds: Most of carbon dioxides weight comes fromoxygen in the air, which isnt included in that 6.3-pound gallon of gas. Thereare 5.5 pounds of carbon in eachgallon. When gas burns, the carbonmolecules combine with two oxygenmolecules to form CO 2 , which is 3.7 times as heavy as a single carbonatom. Multiplying 5.5 pounds of carbon by 3.7 gives you 20.35 pounds.

popsci.com/powerstruggle

The Sony Organic LED TVrevolutionizes television with

lazing response times, exceptionallyibrant color reproduction, stunningontrast levels, high brightness and adisplay as thin as three credit cards.

G RANDAWARD

WI NN ER

entertainment I N N O

V A T I O

N O F T H E Y E AR

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C O L L E G E O F S C I E N C E S / U N I V E R S I T Y O F L I S B O N / C O U R T E S Y N I K O N S M A L L W O R L D


megapixelst he must-see photos of the month

FUNKYCHICKENFOLLOWING BIRDDEVELOPMENT FROMEGG TO HENTo create this image, which won the popularvote in the 2008 Nikon Small World contest,22-year-old Toms Pais de Azevedo, a gradu-ate student in evolutionary and developmen-tal biology at the University of Lisbon in Portu-

gal, removed an eight-day-old, two-inch-longchicken embryo from its egg and stained itwith a dye that binds to cartilage. The processtook three days, after which he photographedthe embryo through a stereo microscope. Thedark-blue areas of the chick indicate wherethe cartilage will ultimately solidify into bone.By tracking how bones develop, and in whatorder, its possible to see how various genescontrol the overall development of vertebrateorganisms. BY STUART FOXPHOTOGRAPH BY TOMS PAIS DE AZEVEDO

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POPSCI.COM POPULAR SCIENCE 15

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R E U T E R S

MEGAPIXELS

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TUNNEL

VISIONTHE LONG WALK TOA NUCLEAR-WASTESTORAGE FACILITYAt the end of this tunnel, which snakes asdeep as 820 feet below the Hungarian coun-tryside, lies a new long-term nuclear-wastefacility, set to open in 2010. Located on theoutskirts of the village of Btaapti, it willstore more than 10.5 million gallons of low-and intermediate-level waste produced at the

Paks nuclear power plant, which is 40 milesaway. The waste consists of protective clothingand contaminated tools and materials fromprocessing. It collectively accounts for 97 per-cent of the volume of radioactive waste fromthe plant. (The high-level waste, includingspent fuel rods, is stored at the power plant.)After several hundred years, its radioactivityshould decay to the level of the planets natu-ral background radiation. BY GREG SOLTISPHOTOGRAPH BY KAROLY ARVAI

See more amazing photos at popsci.com/gallery.

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S A T O S H I

JANUARY 2009 POPULAR SCIENCE 19

Buell did not break the mold when it madethe 1125CR racing bike. Instead, it washedthe mold awayto create a sturdier body.

The frames of other motorcycles areformed by pouring molten metal into a moldof sand and clay. Buell engineers insteaddeveloped a water-soluble bonding agentto use in place of clay. The new formulationallows them to start rinsing the mold awayright after the aluminum is poured, rather

than waiting for the cast to solidify and thenbreaking the mold. Water cools the alloyfaster and in a controlled manner, preventingcavities from forming, which can weaken thestructure. Buell used the method to producea stronger rear frame that requires one lesspound of metal. Its even possible to cast theentire frame that way, using water cooling tone-tune the metals strength and rigidity fordifferent components. Matthew Cokeley

whats neWtech that puts the future in the palm of your hand

BUELL1125 CR

POWER: 146 hpTORQUE: 82 lb.-ft.WEIGHT: 375 lbs.TOP SPEED: 154 mphGET IT: $11,700buell.com

24The marriage of point-and-shoot and SLR

22A mightier motorfor power tools

26Porsche rebuilds the911 from the inside out

A NEWCASTINGTECHNIQUEPRODUCES ASTRONGER,LIGHTERMOTORCYCLE

FRAME WORK

See a video of the CR in action at popsci.com/buell .

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WHATS NEW

GOODSTHE12 MUST-HAVE PRODUCTS

RECORDING ARTISTSave your songs with this acousticguitars built-in MP3 recorder. A pickupnear the strings, like the one in anelectric guitar, converts vibrations intoa voltage signal, and a microphone onthe side captures your crooning. OvationiDea Guitar $600; ovationidea.com

MOTOR HEADNo need to swing ahammer. Slip thistool over a nail, anda small internalweight vibrates up anddown 2,000 times aminute. It drives nailswithout straining yourarms and makes itimpossible for you tomiss and bust yourthumb. CraftsmanNexTec AutoHammerhead$100; craftsman.com

EASY STEPSTrack your daily calorie burn withoutexpending extra energy. Fitbits pedometerautomatically uploads step counts toyour computer whenever you walk by itsBluetooth-enabled base

station.Fitbit

Tracker$100; tbit.com

SAFETY LINEBack up your files just by pluggingone end of this cable into yourPC and the other into any USBhard drive. A chip inside the cableholds software that automaticallymanages the transfer. ClickFreeTransformer $60; goclickfree.com

LIGHT COLOREDSee this MP3 players dis-play clearly even in directsun. Its the first gadgetwith Qualcomms color Mir-asol screen, which createsimages by reflectinglightbecoming brighteras your surroundings do.Freestyle Audio FA300$80; freestyleaudio.com

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OVER THE HILLOther GPS devices show you twisty roads, but finally theres one that shows you anupcoming cliff. The 8100T is the fir st unit to display terrain features all across theU.S., such as hills, valleys and drop-offs. It uses a built-in 3-D graphics chip to rendertopographic data provided by NASA. Navigon 8100T $600; navigon.com

P O P S C I P I C K O F

T H E M O N T H

READY FOR YOURCLOSE-UPImprove your iPhonesphotos. The built-in lenson this case slides over thecamera and enables it totake clear close-up shotssuch as readable pics ofbusiness cardsfrom just four inches away.

Griffin Clarifi $35; griffintechnology.com

UNDER PRESSUREYou wont accidentally launch an application

by brushing the Storms touchscreen. Youtap the display to highlight icons but push

down firmly to select one. This depressesthe entire LCD against a button hidden

underneath. BlackBerry StormPrice not set; verizon.com

AUTO WASHThe first carpet cleaner with

computerized controls beginsdispensing water with the flickof a dial, instead of making youconstantly hold a trigger. Sen-sors alert you when the dirty-

water tank needs to be emptied.Hoover Platinum Carpet

Cleaner $400; hoover.com

DANCE,DANCEEVOLUTIONThis standalonevideogame systemlets you virtuallyboogie by steppingor sliding in anydirection, withouthaving to hit specificparts of a dancemat. A camera inthe receiver tracksthe movementof reflective tagsthat you strap onyour feet. TigerElectronics

U-Dance $80;hasbro.com

FASTER FRAMESThis LCD prevents blurry motionscenes by refreshing images240 times per secondtwice asfast as any other set. Becauseimages flash faster, the changebetween frames doesnt appearabrupt. Sony Bravia KDL-52XBR7 Price not set; sony.com

PLUG AND PRINTConnect a printer to this routersUSB port to send documents to itfrom another room. Software onyour computer streams files overWi-Fi or Ethernet to the router, whichconverts the data to USB signals.D-Link DIR-825 $190; dlink.com

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For guys on a job site drilling hundreds of holes a day, powermattersit lets them work faster and blow through knots,nails and other obstructions. Thats why corded tools, withtheir bigger, stronger motors, still reign for contractors, andwhy DeWalt challenged its engineers to deliver even moreoomph. Their answer: a motor that squeezes in extra copperto deliver 40 percent more power.

Electric motors send current though copper coilsembedded in a steel ring, generating a magnetic eld that

spins an electromagnetic rotor inside. The ring is typically asingle piece of metal. Copper coils are inserted through a gapinto slots on each side of the ring, and then slid into place.DeWalt instead uses a four-piece steel ring and assemblesit around larger coils, eliminating the need for a gap andmaking room for more power-producing copper.

The motor is now in two new half-inch drills and ahandheld grinder, but it could easily migrate to any tool thatneeds some extra kick. Mike Haney

WHATS NEW HOME TECH

S A T O S H I

EXTRA-POWER TOOL

A REDESIGNED MOTOR GIVES THIS DRILL A SERIOUS BOOST IN JUICE

STOP GAPIn a crosscut of the new motor [fore-ground, right], copper coils ll thecrescent-shaped slots on each sideto provide maximum power. The olddesign [far left] required leaving agap where the coils were inserted.

RYOBI HYBRID SAW

Like the love child of a recip and a jigsaw, this tool pumps standard jigblades at 1,850 strokes per minute,perfect for cutting holes in drywall.Its part of an inexpensive set thatincludes an impact driver, compactdrill, circular saw and work light.$150 (set); ryobitools.com

B OSCH MULTI-X

This device can oscillatedifferent attachments at up to20,000 times a minute. Use tinytriangular sanding pads for nooksand crannies or a miniature sawblade that will cut in places youcould never cram a hacksaw.$200; boschtools.com

IN RELATED NEWS: COOL CORDLESS TOOLS


EXTREMECLOSE-UP

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L K W E F R M T P U R T E Y L Y M P U U R T E Y L E A

U R T E Y P A N A N

Even SLRs are pups next to the big dogs knownas medium-format cameras, which fashion andne-art photographers use to capture hyper-detailed images. Due out this summer, Leicas S2packs a medium-format sensor (a 37.5-megapixelslab thats one and a half times as large as thebiggest SLRs) into a compact, rugged body thatsas portable as an SLR. A chip with two computingcores processes the giant images.Leica S2Price not set; en.leica-camera.com

IN RELATED NEWS:A HANDHELD PHOTO STUDIO


THIS NEW DESIGN BORROWSFROM BOTH PRO CAMERASAND POCKET MODELS

The big news in cameras is actuallypretty small. A new format with thewonky name micro four thirds(referring to the image sensors

size and 4:3 aspect ratio), combinesthe interchangeable lenses of anSLR with the compact body of apoint-and-shoot. The rst model,Panasonics G1, is about the size ofthe most petite SLRs but uses evensmaller lenses. A design conceptfrom Olympus shows the potential formore-diminutive future models.

To shrink the cameras, thecompanies removed a key part ofSLRsthe mirror that sits behindthe lens and reects images intothe viewnder. The downside is thatyou have to compose shots using an

LCD screen, which isnt as accurate aslooking right through the lens of an SLR.

On the upside, you get the otherbenets of an SLR in a compactpackage. The G1s 12.1-megapixelimage sensor, though smaller thanmost SLRs, is about six times as largeas a high-end point-and-shoots. Bigger

sensors absorb more light to capturericher details and colors, especially indim settings. And the ability to changelenses lets you shoot anything fromextreme close-ups to wide shots to awarped sh-eye view. Best of all, youllnally have room to pack all thoselenses in your bag .Theano Nikitas

GET IT: Panasonic G1$800 with lens; panasonic.com

LITTLE SHOTA concept camerafrom Olympus squeezesthe workings of an SLR intoa pocket-sized body.

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Look through the 2009 Carrera Ss familiarskin, and youll nd the biggest redesign inyears. The change starts with a dual-clutch

transmission, taken straight from Porschesracecars, that shifts gears in milliseconds.Its bolted to a redesigned six-cylinder enginethat uses direct fuel injection (a rst forPorsche) to churn out higher horsepowerwhile actually getting more miles per gal-lon. In the cockpit, the company has nallyadded modern gadgetry such as Bluetooth,an iPod cable, and XM Satellite Radio withreal-time trafc updates. What hasntchanged? The 911 is still one of the mostpowerful cars on the planet. seth etcher

WHATS NEW AUTO TECH

C O U R T E S Y P O R S C H E C A R S N O R T H A M E R I C A

MORE

THANSKIN-DEEPINSIDE, PORSCHES911 IS A WHOLE NEW CAR

EXTREMECLOSE-UP

Transmission

Like other double-clutch systems, Porschesseven-speed gearbox essentially uses onetransmission for the odd-numbered gears and

one for the even-numbered. While one is in rstgear, the other is already waiting in second.Switch from automatic to manual mode, andchoose gears with either the shifter or thebuttons on the steering wheel. On the track, wepulled off brutal shiftssay, from sixth geardown to second at 60 mphinstantaneously.

Engine

Direct fuel injection sends gasoline straight intothe cylinders, increasing compression ratio andefciency. That translates to a 0-to-60 time of4.5 seconds, a top speed of 178 mph and a 15percent cut in carbon-dioxide emissions.

Suspension

Select Sport mode, and the shockscompress, bringing the car nearly aninch closer to the ground to provide morestability during high-speed turns.

lightsLEDs around the headlamps and tail lamps actas daytime running lights.


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WHATS NEW GADGETS

S A T O S H I

TURNING ANEW PAGE

GOOD,BETTER,

BESTThe latest electronic readers let you scrawl in the margins orswipe your nger to turn a page, just as with a traditional paperbook. Their new realism comes from touchscreens of variouskinds, which replace computer-like buttons. And with E-Inkdisplays that look like pigment on paper, these gizmos couldconvert even die-hard bookworms. Sean Portnoy

Weighing just 10 ounces, Sonys newreader is about the same size as earlierversions. But its 4.8-by-3.6-inch screenpacks resistive sensors that respond topressure from your nger or a stylus.Swipe the screen to turn a page, or dragacross a word to highlight and copy it.You cant write freehand, but you canmake notes by tapping on a keyboardthat pops up onscreen. $400; sony.com

Write or draw directly on a 6.3-by-8-inch display. Like iRexs smaller models(previously the only digital books withtouchscreens), the 1000S uses a sensorboard, placed under the screen, thatreacts to a magnetic signal from anelectronic pen. (Its the same Wacom techthat digital artists use.) Navigate pageswith touch-sensitive panels on theunits side. $750; irextechnologies.com

This spring, Plastic Logic will debut thethinnest e-reader yetjust over a quarterof an inchwith a screen the same sizeas an 8.5-by-11-inch sheet of paper. ItsE-Ink display sits on a plastic base insteadof glass, making it slimmer, lighterand more durable; even the transistorsare plastic. The touchscreen relies oniPhone-style capacitance sensors, whichreact to the electrical conductivity of yourngertips. Price not set; plasticlogic.com

SCREEN SIZE: PAPERBACK SCREEN SIZE: HARDCOVER SCREEN SIZE: OFFICE PAPER


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WHATS NEW GADGETS

GET IT: T-Mobile G1$180 with two-yearcontract (from $65/month); tmobile.com

MAKE THIS PHONE

YOUR OWNTHE GOOGLE PHONE IS HERE. NOW PROGRAMMERS CAN MAKE IT INTERESTING

PARADIGMSHIFT

S A T O S H I

WHAT IT IS

Android, Googles cellphone operatingsystem. When we curse at our phones,the culprit is usually the impenetrablesoftware that requires ve buttonpresses just to save a number to itsaddress book. But what if you couldreplace the address book with a betterversion or with something completely

different, like a program that links toyour Facebook friends list instead?Thats the promise of Android,

which premiered with the T-Mobile

G1 in October and this year willpower a variety of phones, fromcarriers and manufacturersincluding Sprint and Motorola.(The latter has hired hundreds ofAndroid programmers in the hope ofreviving its foundering business.)

Why Its radical

Unlike the Apple, BlackBerry andMicrosoft phone operating systems,Android is open-source, meaninganyone is free to reprogram it and offer

improvements to other users through adownload store called the Market. Othersystems let you install programs suchas games. But they dont allow you tochange the phone itself (like replacingthe address book), or how applicationscommunicate with each other andwith the phones hardware. Thats whyiPhone owners are still waiting for

Apple to add basic functions to the OS,like cutting and pasting text betweenprograms or sending music through theBluetooth chip to a wireless headset.

For Example

Android also makes it easier to buildcomplex applications that link programsand phone components. Take Wikitude.It uses input from the camera, the GPSchip and orientation sensors to overlaylinks to Wikipedia articles about theplaces you see on the phones screen,providing a real-time, annotated viewof the world. That doesnt just improveyour phone; it turns it into a wholenew kind of device. John Mahoney


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POPSCI.COM JANUARY 2009 POPULAR SCIENCE 33

To predict the unpredictable: Thats thegoal of a new government initiative on

abrupt climate change. As the atmospherereels under the inuence of greenhousegases, scientists fear the growing risk ofdramatic environmental changes occurringwithin decadesfar faster than currentcomputer models predict. Ice sheets mightnot just melt but collapse wholesale, rap-idly raising sea levels and ooding entirecoastlines. Regional rain shortages couldcause megadroughts that choke our waterand food supply. William Collins, head ofthe climate-science department at Law-rence Berkeley National Laboratory, callsthe possibility of abrupt climate change ahuge threat to the security and stability ofour nation and the world.

Earth is no stranger to the disruptiveforces of sudden climate change. Tree-ring data show that sudden drying in theAmerican West from 900 to 1400 inducedone of the most tenacious megadroughts onrecord, turning river basins into sheets ofsand and contributing to the collapse of theagrarian Pueblo cliff-dweller civilization.Scientists suspect that increased green-

house gases may be forcing another shift,but no computer model is yet capable offorecasting if, when, and how fast that shiftmight be happening. So with a $2-million-a-year investment by the U.S. Department ofEnergy, six national laboratories and a hostof universities are joining forces in a predic-tion project called IMPACTS (Investigationof the Magnitudes and Probabilities ofAbrupt Climate Transitions). Led by Collins,IMPACTS will pinpoint the mechanisms thatdrive abrupt climate change and add themto the Community Climate System Model

[continued on page 35]

CLOCKWISEFROMTOP:MARCOSIMONI/GETTYIMAGES;GEORGEE.MARSHALBUM/NOAA;MIKEDICKBERND/APPHOTO

headlinesdiscoveries, advances and debates in science

THE OTHER BIG MELTDOWNIS GLOBAL WARMING SHIFTING INTO HIGH GEAR? A FEDERAL PROJECT AIMS TO FIND OUT

Teslas newelectric sedan Turning old elec-tronics into goldVital signs exposebad guys in a crowd

36 3934

ON THE BRINK Expertswarn that a rapid shiftin climate could speedup ice loss, whichwould dramaticallyraise sea levels andincrease ood risk.Reduced rainfall inthe American South-west could also setoff severe drought notseen since the 1930s .

ENVIRONMENT

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G R A H A M

M U R D O C H

DEFENSE TECH

SECURITY IN THEFAST LANE

Thermal camera

A. Eyes: Cameras detectslight alterations in

pupil size, blink rateand direction of gaze.

B. Heart: A laser radar calledBioLIDAR measures heartrate and changes in the inter-val between heartbeats.

C. Lungs: BioLIDAR moni-tors the frequency and depthof respiration by trackingmicro-movements in theneck, cheeks and face.

D. Skin: Thermal camerasgauge changes in skin tem-

perature and texture todetermine stress levels.

E. Body language: Videocameras capture nonverbalbehavioral cues, such asgestures and gait changes,that indicate malicious intent.

Pheromones: Scientistsare working on a sensor todetect the chemicals thebody expels under stress.

FAST HAS YOU COVERED

As you make your way through the security checkpoint of the 2020Los Angeles Auto Show, visions of hydrogen sports cars occupy yourmind. Not so for the well-dressed 25-year-old behind you. He plansto set off a bomb. But minute irregularities in his body temperature,heart rate and sweat content betray his nefarious intentions andtrigger alarms, alerting security before he even enters the building.

Thats how the U.S. Department of Homeland Security hopes itsnew camera- and sensor-based threat monitor, called Future Attri-bute Screening Technology, or FAST, will work. In September, theDHS ran 140 volunteers through a scaled-down FAST prototype,scoring a promisingly high accuracy rate for picking out people withdeceptive or hostile intent, says Bob Burns, the program managerfor the DHS Science and Technology division.

The system operates on the theory that a person planninga malicious attack will display measurable biological cues thatexpose him. We look for very specic signals, Burns says. Forsecurity reasons, Id rather not get into the nitty-gritty, he says,

but notes that FAST aims to eventually be able to analyze pupil dila-tion, speech patterns and even pheromone levels.

What if youre innocently nervous or angry? Working in concert,the systems multiple sensors, including more-conventional bombdetectors, should be able to discern between someone whos an immi-nent threat and a person whos just having a bad day. Arnie Cooper

A NEW SYSTEM SCANS CROWDS FOR THEBIOLOGICAL CUES THAT PRECIPITATE CRIME

A

B

C

D

E


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(CCSM), one of the countrys two leading com-puter climate models. Accurate predictionswont eliminate changes, but they might giveus time to prepare.

Megadrought is a high priority forIMPACTS. Current models show that globalwarming will already make the AmericanSouthwest steadily drier, but changes in plantlife could speed up and inten-sify the process. Duringprolonged drought,plant rootsdeprived of watercease to growlonger and tapdeep ground-water. The

vegetation mayactually die off,says Ruby Leung,an IMPACTS modelerat the Pacic NorthwestNational Laboratory. Withoutplants to transport groundwater to the toplayer of soil, drought conditions could com-pound, setting the stage for a megadrought.

Another tipping point may be ice sheets,particularly in the West Antarctic. Theyredisintegrating briskly, but current computermodels dont take this into account, in partbecause the mechanism by which the sheetscrumble is still unclear. History shows thatsea levels are capable of rising 20 timesas fast as the current rate of one tenth ofan inch per year, says New York Universityoceanographer David Holland, who is parsingrecent eld data on the mechanisms into ice-sheet equations for the CCSM. At that rate,he says, you would have a problem in 100years. Given that one in 10 people worldwidelive in low-elevation areas, these are impor-tant numbers to know.

Until recent years, the national researchfocus has been to characterize trends ingradual warming and its long-term effects.Its like learning to drive, says RichardAlley, a glaciologist at Penn State Uni-versity and a leader in bringing attentionto abrupt climate change. We generallystart by trying to control the car. Then welearn about evasive maneuvers to avoiddrunk drivers crossing the centerline.IMPACTS signals that priorities are shift-ing. The hope is that theyre shifting fasterthan the climate is. Laura Allen

HEADLINES

(CCSM) oneof thecountrys twoleading

CONTINUED FROM PAGE 33

BioLIDAR

Video camera

ABRUPTCLIMATECHANGE IS AHUGE THREATTO NATIONALSECURITY.

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J O H N B

C A R N E T T

WHY DOT-COM BILLIONAIRE ELON MUSK IS BANKING ONAMERICAN-MADE ELECTRIC CARS

If theres a gene for entrepreneurship, ElonMusk has it. From his rst project at age 12creating and selling a videogame called Blaster for $500, to his $1-billion-plus sale of PayPalto eBay in 2002, the 37-year-old South African

is every bit the born mogul. These days heschairman of Solar City, the largest residentialsolar-power provider in California. Hes alsothe founder and CEO of Space X, a space-exploration company that made headlineslast September when it launched the rstprivately developed rocket into orbit. But latelyits Musks newly minted role as CEO of theU.K.-based electric-car start-up Tesla Motorsthat is drawing the most attention. In October,amid global nancial tumult, Tesla receiveda $40-million cash infusion from privateinvestors and announced that by 2011 it would

begin selling an electric sedan powered bylithium-ion batteries with an unthinkable240-mile range. The Model S wontovertake Teslas 125mph Roadster, but itwill be nearly half the price, at $60,000,

and made in America. We spoke withMusk about his push to make affordablehigh-perfomance electric cars and whyhybrids have no future. ARNIE COOPER

Can you be successful selling analternative-fuel car now that gas priceshave dipped below $3 a gallon?

Absolutely. The cost difference betweenelectric and gasoline is gigantic. Whenwe started Tesla in 2003, gasoline wasaround $2.50. It takes 60 kilowatt-hoursto charge the Roadsters battery. So at

Californias special rate for electric cars,

currently seven cents a kilowatt-hour tocharge at night, it costs roughly $5 to go250 miles. And were zero-emissions.

But gas cars are still more affordable. Today. Remember, in their early days,

gasoline cars were really toys for therich. All technology gets optimized. Thetypical electric motor is 90 percent moreefcient at converting energy into motionthan the internal combustion engine. Youget an overwhelming advantage in bothcarbon emissions and energy per mile.

WHATS THE BIG IDEA?

HEADLINES

WHEN THEELECTRIC SEDANCOMES OUT,ILL HAND IN MYPORSCHE.

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MAN AND MACHINEElon Musk and

his all-electric

Tesla Roadster.

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Q: Why not go hybrid?A: We looked closely at developinga hybrid, but we decided its a redherring. If you stay purely electric orpurely gasoline, youre going to makea better car. As soon as you try to splitthe difference, you have somethingthats neither sh nor fowl. A Prius isa weak gasoline car with a little bit ofelectric charge. And once youve usedup the electric charge, you have anunderpowered gasoline engine or aweak electric car.

Q: How will drivers recharge thebattery pack in the Model S?

A: Youll head to a battery-swap station,drive your car onto rails that lock yourcar into position like at a car wash, anda customized forklift device will grabthe pack from beneath the car, pull it

out, and replace it with another pack. Itlltake roughly ve minutesless time thanlling your gas tank. For a high-speedrecharge, the car will also have onboardchargers that let you plug into any wallsocket and charge up in 45 minutes.

Q: Tesla has delivered only 50 Roadsters.How do you plan to get 15,000 Model Scars out annually?A: For the Roadster, we made a fewarchitectural errors and lots ofmistakes in our choiceof suppliers. And wewere developing therst version of a

new technology.With the sedan,we already havethe powertrain ina rolling prototype,

so theres much less uncertainty aroundthe technology. That said, the recenteconomic situation has forced us to pushback production six months, to mid-2011.

Q: You run a green company. Wouldyou say you live a green lifestyle?A: Im not too hardcore about beinggreen. I think it leads to a very constrainedlife. I have the Roadster and a PorscheTurbo. But once the sedan comes out,Ill hand in the Porsche. Waste is not

good, but we cant conserve our wayto a solution. If everyone were a

super-green conservationist, itwould just delay the inevitable.

We have to nd sustainablemeans of producing andconsuming energy.

HEADLINES

WHATS THE BIG IDEA? CONTD

A L A N L E V E N S O N

UNDER WRAPS A sneakpeek at the Tesla Model S

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FROM L

EFT:NARVIKK/ISTOCK;FREUDENTHALVERHAGEN/GETTYIMAGES;ISTOCK

Instead of sifting mountain streamsfor gold, modern-day prospectors hit thelandlls, mining for discarded cellphones

and computers. Electronics contain valu-able metals, like gold. But reclaiming thetreasure requires melting circuit boardsin acid, scooping up gold with nonbiode-gradable plastic resins and lms, and

burning the plastic to free up the metal.Looking for a cleaner way to recycle

the metals, Katsutoshi Inoue, a chemist at

Saga University in Japan, extracts metalfrom the acid soup using newspapers. Firsthe grinds the paper into a powder. Then helaces it with a chemical that binds tightly tometals, making the paper three times as

effective at recapturing gold from the acid.You still have to burn the paper to get themetal, but this requires less energy and

emits less carbon and other noxious gasesinto the atmosphere than burning plastic.Inoue is now in talks with companies look-ing for an inexpensive alternative to metalsmining. GRAEME STEMP-MORLOCK

MINING LANDFILLSA SMARTER WAY TO PULL PRECIOUS METALS FROM TRASHED ELECTRONICS

THE EQUATION

OLD ELECTRONICS

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C L O C K W I S E F R O M T O P : I S T O C K ; C

O U R T E S Y S P E C T R A ;

3 BODACIOUS GREEN INNOVATIONS

SMART WATERMaking seawater drinkable for the millionswithout access to freshwater is a noble idea,but a standalonedesalinator needs17 gallons ofdiesel fuel and66.5 kilowattsof electricity to

make 1,000 gallonsof freshwater.The Solar Cube,made by SpectraWatermakers inCalifornia, churns out 1,500 gallons of drinkingwater on just 22 kilowatts of its own solar andwind power. The innovation is a pump that triplesefciency by recapturing hydraulic pressureduring the ltering process. Solar Cubes are nowbringing freshwater to remote regions of SouthAfrica, Pakistan, Venezuela, Chile and otherplaces short on infrastructure and electricity.

ELECTRICASPHALTYou know that saying about frying an egg ona hot sidewalk? It works, says Rajib Mallick, anengineer at Worcester Polytechnic Institute whostudies the effect of solar radiation on cities.Now Mallick has devised a way to harness heatfrom baking blacktop and turn it into electricity.His system pumps wateran excellent heatconductorthrough a network of copper pipesembedded in asphalt. As the water circulates,

it pulls heat from the scorching surfaceand produces steam to drive a turbinethat cranks out electricity. Mallickis partnering with the University ofMassachusetts Dartmouth and theoptics rm Novotech to install afull-scale system beneath a 10,000-

square-foot parking lot near Worcester,Massachusetts, next summer. By

supplying electricity to the adjacent buildings,he expects the $200,000 system to pay for itselfin energy savings in a decade.

Zero to 60 mph in about nine seconds may sound sluggish, but its a breakthroughfor a zero-emissions, all-electric car that can travel up to 100 miles on a singlecharge and hit speeds of 85 mph. Thats the claim of the i MiEV (for MitsubishiInnovative motor Electric Vehicle), a new plug-in four-door coupe. The i MiEV runson a pack of 22 lithium-ion batteries, but unlike other electric cars, including theChevy Volt and Tesla Roadster, the i MiEV doesnt require a liquid cooling systemto avoid overheating. Proprietary metals in the battery design let us do away withit, says Moe Durand, the communications manager for Mitsubishi Motors NorthAmerica. This makes the i MiEV lighter and more efcient, whichcombined witha small, rear-mounted electric motorgives it plenty of zip and extended range.

The company is also developing a two-door i MiEV Sport [above] with a planned topspeed of 122 mph and a 124-mile range. Still a concept, the sportier version willhave a rootop photovoltaicpanel for extra power, heat-deecting windows to saveAC, and an interior madefrom polymer-producingplants. Mitsubishi is noweet-testing the four-doorin the U.S. and will sell a$28,000 model in Japan thissummer. Michael Behar

HEADLINES

SOLAR SOLUTION The SolarCube is the first desalinatorto run on renewable energy.

SUNNY SIDE UP A new type of asphaltconverts the suns rays into electricity.

PLUG-N-PLAY CARS

GREEN RACER The i MiEVSport will do 122 mph and get124 miles on a single charge.

DRIVERS SEAT Look for Mitsubishislineup to start incorporating the i MiEVsenergy-saving windows and interior.

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tomorrows technology today

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THE AIR FORCE WANTSA NEW BOMBER EQUIPPED

WITH 21ST-CENTURY TECHNOLOGY.THAT COULD MEAN STEALTHIER

SURFACE MATERIALS ANDLASER WEAPONSAND

IT MIGHT EVENSKIP THE PILOT

BY DAWN STOVER ILLUSTRATIONS BY NICK KALOTERAKIS

The B-2 stealth bomber , assisted by midairrefuelings, can y a 44-hour mission to the

other side of the world, take out targetsusing laser-guided smart munitions, thensneak out of enemy territory undetected.Yet it runs on Intel 286 processorsstate ofthe art in 1982, but these days, not so much.

Yes, the Air Forces stealth-bombereet is aging. By 2037, the Air Force plansto build a large, supersonic stealth bomberthat can relieve the B-2 of duty. In the mean-time, though, the military needs a stopgap,which is why it wants to build about 100aircraft like the one you see here: the NextGeneration Bomber, set to arrive in 2018.

BOMB SQUAD A BoeingLockheed Mar-tin coalition is competing with NorthropGrumman to build the Next GenerationBomber, a mid-range stealth aircraft setto arrive in 2018. Northrops concept, seenhere, has a kite-like shape similar to thecompanys X-47B Navy attack drone.

u

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Boeing and Lockheed are currentlyworking together on a design for the bomber,in competition with Northrop Grumman.The Air Force wont announce the full list of

nal specications for the new plane untillater this year, but the basics are clear. Thisshould be a subsonic craft capable of yingup to 2,000 miles before refueling from anairborne tanker, while carrying between14,000 and 28,000 pounds of ordnance, pos-sibly including nuclear weapons.

The bomber will use the same bat-wingshape of a B-2, which means no tail to reectradar signals, and improvements in two keyareassurface design and surface coatingcould give the new bomber a radar signatureas small as one tenth that of a mosquito.

(Todays stealth bombers are believed toappear on radar screens as being aboutthe size of a small bird.) Advanced com-puter modeling will make it possible to

design shapes (sure to be kept classied)that can disappear even more effectivelyfrom radar screens. Then theres theplanes surface. The B-2 uses a rubberyskin that contains tiny beads coated withferrite; radar waves induce a magneticeld in the coating that converts the radioenergy to heat. The problem is, this coat-ing is fragile and easily damaged by badweather. The Next Generation Bomberwill have a radar-absorbent coating thatcan withstand rough ight conditions.

The new craft could also have a major

defensive advantage over todays bombersghter-jet capabilities drawn from the F-22Raptor. Air-to-air missiles would defendthe bomber from attacking aircraft. Pos-

sible onboard microwaves or laser weaponscould destroy incoming missiles or radarstations on the ground. For particularlydangerous missions in which stealth is lessof a concern, the bomber could y at thecenter of a protective wolf pack; this groupof ghter jets, drones and guided missileswill travel in formation around the bomber,organizing automatically by sending signalsto one another using radar and satellites.

The most intriguing possibility of all,though, is the persistent rumor that theNext Generation Bomber is actually cover

PILOT LIGHT? Boeing has said that it isagnostic about whether the bomberwill be manned or unmanned. Doing awaywith a pilot would extend the potentiallength of missionsbut a robot plane lledwith nuclear warheads is sure to raise

eyebrows among lawmakers.

OFFENSE AND DEFENSE Heavy munitions can take out buriedor hardened targets such as bunkers and weapons caches. Thebomber will carry 14,000 to 28,000 pounds of payload. And unliketodays stealth bombers, the new craft could carry air-to-air mis-siles for self-defense. If necessary, it could even y at the centerof a wolf pack that includes ghter planes and guided missiles.

LOW PROFILE The NextGeneration Bombercould have a radar sig-nature one tenth thatof a mosquito thanksto sleek lines that dont

reect radar signals.

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The Air Forces current bomber eet consists of the three planes shown herethe B-52, B-1B and B-2. More than half are aging B-52s, some as old as 50. Allthree have a greater range and payload than is planned for the 2018 bomber,but the new bomber is expected to be stealthier and more combat-capable.

for a secret black program to developan unmanned nuclear-capable bomber.Last spring, Aviation Week laid out the case:Funding for the Next Generation Bomber is

nowhere to be found in the most recent AirForce budget, yet nancial results releasedby Northrop last April show $2 billion innew classied programs at the companysaircraft division. Northrop, which built theB-2, more recently won the contract to buildthe X-47B, a Navy demonstrator drone thatwill y later this year. Because the companyhad previously proposed building a biggerversion of the X-47, many experts believethat the black bomber rumored to be underdevelopment at Northrop is an unmannedaircraft derived from both the X-47 and the

B-2like, say, an unmanned variationon the Next Generation Bomber. ForBoeings part, its president of advancedsystems, Darryl Davis, told the Seattle

Times last January that his companywas agnostic about whether the planewould be manned or unmanned.

Why would the Air Force prefer toskip the pilot? Simple: An unmannedcraft would be smaller, cheaper, andhave almost unlimited endurance.Without a pilot, you can remain overthe target area for days at a time, saysJohn Pike, director of the Virginia-basedthink tank GlobalSecurity.org. Youvealways got air power on call. Pikesays the Air Force got religion about

unmanned planes in Iraq, where morethan 1,000 smaller drones have been suc-cessfully used for reconnaissance and airstrikes. This year marks the rst time in

history that the Air Force will buy moreunmanned planes than manned ones.That said, its one thing to have a

small unmanned plane carry conventionalbombs and missiles but quite another toload up a robot plane with 28,000 poundsof nuclear weapons. As a recent congres-sional report put it, a nuclear-equippedrobot bomber is likely to be controversialat best. If this is what the Air Force has inmind, no wonder its keeping it a secret.

Dawn Stover is P OPULAR S CIENCE s editor-at-large.

CONCEPTS & PROTOTYPES

todays bomber fleet

The B-2 , which can carry nuclearor conventional weapons, istodays only stealth bomber.

The 2018 bomber will be akinto a mini B-2: smaller, stealthier,and equipped with newer com-puters and communicationssystems that make it easier tochange missions on the y.

BOEINGS BOMBER Preliminary designsfor the Boeing-Lockheed bomber show

a large center section, long, slen-der wings, and slit-like air inlets for

the engines. The planes belly is deepenough for a large weapons bay.

The supersonic B-1B wasdesigned as a low-altitude, high-speed bomber. Its speed makesit less vulnerable to attack thanthe comparatively clunky B-52,but its not as stealthy as theB-2. The B-1B ies faster thanthe 2018 bomber and carriesonly non-nuclear weapons.

The B-52 is the old workhorseof the U.S. bomber eet, withan average age of more than45 years. It can carry a widerrange of weapons, and loiterlonger without refueling, thanany other bomber. The B-52has more than four times therange of the 2018 bomber.

FROM T

OP:APPHOTO/U.S.AIRFORCE;GETTYIMAGES(2)

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Nearly ve decades ago , Americanslearned that one of their most treasuredhabitssmokingwas lethal. This year, we

could get more scary news, when scientistsannounce the results from Interphone, thelargest-ever study to investigate whethercellphones cause cancer.

Interphone researchers are poolingand analyzing the results gathered fromstudies on 6,400 tumors sampled frompatients in 13 countries. If the nal resultsmirror the preliminary ones, the worldsthree billion cellphone users mightwant to dial back their talk time. Israeliresearchers participating in Interphonefound that people who use cellphonesregularly are 50 percent more likely thannon-users to develop brain tumors. Anda joint Interphone analysis from the U.K.,Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finlandreported a 40 percent increase in tumorrisk in people who use cellphones formore than a decade; the study found no

LAST CALL?THE MOST DEFINITIVE STUDY YETCOULD FINALLY DETERMINE WHETHERCELLPHONE USE CAUSES CANCER

SCIENTISTS FOUND THAT REGULAR USERS AREMORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BRAIN TUMORS.

discernable risk for people who have usedcellphones for fewer than 10 years.

No one yet knows specically how

cellphones could cause cancer. Theradiation they emit has too little energy tocause genetic damage, but some scientistsbelieve that it may have indirect effects thatcause cells to proliferate uncontrollably. Buttheres no consensus on these theories.

Scientists like David Carpenter, thedirector of the Institute for Health and theEnvironment at the University of Albany,who spoke about cellphone risks at aCongressional subcommittee hearing inSeptember, are looking to Interphone fora denitive ruling on cellphone safety buthave expressed frustration over the two-years-delayed results.

An answer from Interphone is crucialfor public health, Carpenter says. Althougha handful of studies have been publishedon cellphones over the past few years,most have been statistically useless. For

one thing, they surveyed too few people.Additionally, the majority of studiesfocused on the effects of cellphone use

after several years, but in most casesbrain cancer takes a decade to develop.Interphone looks at the inuence of bothshort- and long-term use. Thats not tosay that the study is perfect. Interphonedenes regular use as one call, oncea week. Its possible that this denitionunderestimates the risk to people whouse cellphones more frequently.

And what happens if Interphonereveals a denite link betweencellphones and cancer? Will we ndourselves dependent on land linesagain? Unlikely. The technology isprobably here to stay, says SiegalSadetzki, who ran the IsraeliInterphone study: We know that thereare car accidents, and we still usevehicles, right? Weve just learned howto do it wisely. Melinda Wenner

A Year of StarsUnesco has designated 2009 as theInternational Year of Astronomy to highlightthe 400th anniversary of Galileos rstuse of the telescope to make astronomicalobservations.

Darwins Birthday BashCharles Darwin, the man who brought you thetheory of evolution by natural selection, was born200 years ago. His hometown of Shrewsbury,England, andthe NaturalHistory Museumin London willoffer the grandestcelebrations.

TV Goes to All-DigitalTelevision stations switch todigital signals to broadcasttheir current channels,keeping the spectrum openfor other telecommunicationuses, such as emergencybroadcasts and wirelessbroadband.

HEAD-SICK Cancer-related brain tumors(yellow-ringed areas)can take up to a decadeto develop.

AIRBORNE LASERS. THE CELLPHONE-CANCER LINK. BIGBUCKS FOR X PRIZE WINNERS? HERE, WE GIVE YOU A PEEKAT WHAT PROMISES TO BE A REVELATORY YEAR OF SCIENCE

January FEBRUARY 12 FEBRUARY 17

P op S ci PREDICTSSCIENCE OF 09

ILLUSTRATION: P I X E L G A R D E N . C O M

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C L O C K W I S E F R O M T O P : C O U R T E S Y K E P L E R M I S S I O N / N A S A A M E S R E S E A R C H C E N T E R ; C E R N ;

Hubble RepairAstronauts will install two new instrumentsand repair two inactive ones in ve six-and-a-half-hour spacewalks during the Hubble SpaceTelescopes nal servicing mission. Afterward,it should be able to study galaxies even fartheraway and in three different spectra: near-ultraviolet, visible and near-infrared. NASAexpects at least another ve years of stunningimages from the Hubble.

Sci-Fi SequelsTechies will ockto theaters with therelease ofWatchmen (March 6),X-Men Origins: Wolverine (May 1),Star Trek (May 8),Terminator Salvation (May 22) andTransformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen(June 26).

LHC RestartHaving recovered from an electrical mishap that led tohelium leaks and mechanicaldamage last September, theLarge Hadron Collider at the CERN lab nearGeneva, Switzerland, will start operations again.

Earths twin could be waiting for us hundreds of light-years away. Infact, thousands of Earth doppelgngers may be lurking in the cosmicdistance, orbiting stars just like our sun and maybe, just maybe,harboring life of their own. Although telescopes have identied morethan 300 planets outside our solar system, most of them are tooharsh to host life. One notable exception to the typical hot Jupitermodel is a rocky Earth-like planet discovered in 2007, dubbed Gliese581 c. This April, NASAs orbiting Kepler telescope will begin a three-year effort to scour distant space for more planets like Gliese 581 c.

Kepler wont look for them directlyEarth-like planets aretoo small to see even with the best telescopes. Instead it will huntfor them based on how they affect the stars they orbit. The Keplertelescope will focus on one small slice of our galaxy, the wing of

the swan-shaped constellation Cygnus, observing how the regions170,000-odd stars change over time. If a star dims once, it could bebecause a planet is crossing in front of it, or it could just be a sunspot.But if a star dims several times, and the same amount of time passesbetween each dimming event, a planet must be orbiting it.

Disappointingly, the mission wont tell us whether any planetsare teeming with little green men. Kepler is a stepping-stone, afoundation upon which mankind will nd its place in the universe,says principal investigator William Borucki. But, he adds,if we nd,as we expect to, lots and lots of Earths in habitable zones, thenthere is probably lots and lots of life in space. With evidence in hand,NASA will no doubt set out to nd it. M.w.

COSMIC HOUSE-HUNTINGNEW ORBITING OBSERVATORY WILL SEARCH FOR EARTH-LIKE PLANETS

MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOMELOOK FOR THESE NOTABLE LAUNCHES TO EARTH-ORBIT THIS YEARSpaceShipTwo

The rst ight of Virgin GalacticsSpaceShipTwo could take sixcustomers to 360,000 feet and offerthem weightlessness and 1,000-mile views in all directions.

Glory

In June, NASAs Glory satellite willlaunch to help predict future climatechange by gauging the magnitudeof the suns energy and studyingatmospheric aerosols.

Wide-eld Infrared

Survey Explorer

The infrared telescope of the WISEsatellite, launching in November,will scan space for brown dwarfsand super-luminous galaxies.

Cryosat-2

Starting in November, the EuropeanSpace Agencys CryoSat-2interferometric-radar satellite willcircle the planet, measuring thethickness of polar ice caps.M.W.

February Spring Spring

SCIENCE IN 09P op S ci PREDICTS

I SPY The Kepler telescope hasa 4.5-foot-wide mirror. It willlook for small, rocky planetsorbiting distant stars.

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Solar Airplane Test FlightsSolar Impulse , the rst plane to be poweredby solar energy and to take off under its ownpower, will undergo test ights. It can travel upto 28 mph and cruise at an elevation of 27,900feet because its cabin is not pressurized.

South Koreas First Space LaunchSouth KoreasKorea Launch Vehicle System (KLVS-1) will end that countrys dependence onother nations to power its ventures into space.

Lithium-Polymer Batteries Now in CarsHyundai will release the rst car in the worldto use lithium-polymer rechargeable batteries.

The Elantra LPI (Liqueed PetroleumInjected) HEV emits 90

percent fewer emissionsthan an equivalentstandard gasoline-powered Elantra.

NASA will re up its latest rocket this April forits rst test ight. Ares 1 is designed to haul a25-ton payload, making it capable of ferryingeither six astronauts to the International SpaceStation or four astronauts to low-Earth orbit,where they can transfer to another vehicle andhead to the moon. The rocket contains twostages: a reusable solid rocket booster andan engine powered by liquid oxygen and liquidhydrogen. If all goes well with Orion , NASAsplanned crew vehicle, Ares 1 will be whiskingthe rst crews into space by 2015. M.w.

HEAVY LIFTERNASA TEST-DRIVESA NEW ROCKET

Mars Science

Laboratory

Launching in the fall, this researchrover will collect and examineMartian soil and rock samplesfor traces of carbon, lifes mostcommon building block. To nd thatcarbon, ChemCam will re lasersat the ground and analyze the vaporproduced by the impact.

Lunar Reconnaissance

Orbiter

NASA is going back to the moonafter the LRO nds astronauts agood place to land. Launching onApril 24, the LRO will map out themoons surface and home in onthe poles, where scientists believethere could be water. M.w.

BEYONDEARTHTHIS YEARSMOST POPULARDESTINATIONS FORUNMANNED LANDERS

Should they cast their eyes skywardat just the right moment, a few luckyobservers could see somethingspectacular this summer: a Boeing 747splitting open a ballistic missile with alaser in mid-ight. After 12 years and$5 billion in R&D, the Missile DefenseAgencys Airborne Laser (ABL) willmake its rst real-world attempt toshoot down a missile in midair.

The ABL uses a chemical reactionto generate a megawatt of infrared laserlight. When a missiles smoke trail fromburning propellant sets off the 747ssensors, a tracking laser locks onto thetargets most vulnerable spot, usually its

fuel tank. Then the main laser res away.Its no simple feat: Robert McMurry,Jr., the ABL program director for theMissile Defense Agency, compares thechallenge to ying over the WashingtonMonument while shooting through abasketball hoop in Central Park. If thissummers demonstration is successful,further ight tests will help renethe technology for use in a second,more powerful and smaller prototype,expected in 2013. Melinda Dodd

AIRBORNE LASERBLASTS OFFANTI-BALLISTIC-MISSILEPLANE GETS FIRST TEST

Spring Summer July

SOLARIMPULSE/EPFL/CLAUDIOLEONARDI

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PREDICTING THEHEADLINES

Nanny State Arrives in VehiclesFords MyKey technology, which will debut inthe 2010 Focus compact car, allows parents torestrict their teenagers top speed to 80 mph,limit stereo volume,and sound a chimewhen the driver is notwearing a seatbelt orthe car exceeds 45, 55or 65 mph.

Near-Endless PowerFuel-cell manufacturer MTI Micro will releasea methanol fuel cell offering 2,700 hours ofcontinuous run time. Whereas lithium-ionlaptop batteries lose about half their chargingcapacity after two years, methanol cells loseonly some 15 percent.

Electric Cars

to Market

Subaru, Mitsubishiand Mini [right] planto introduce their ownplug-in hybrid electric-carmodels this year.

ENERGY-EFFICIENT TECH

LIGHTS OUT

On March 1 , the Republic of Ireland becomes the rstdemocratic country in the world to ban the traditionalincandescent lightbulb. Stores there will no longer carrythe century-old technology, which converts only betwee5 and 10 percent of electricity into light, losing the restas radiant heat. (Compare this with the 40 percent

POLITICALSCIENCETHE HOT-BUTTON RESEARCH ISSUESFACING THE NEW ADMINISTRATION

Over the past eight years , the rift between the scienticcommunity and the federal agencies that govern it hasdeepened. What opportunities will President Barack Obamasadministration have to bridge the divide? Corey Binns

Endangered species

Space exploration

Climate change

THE ISSUE: 281 threatened species have not been given protection.WHAT NEXT? Let science, not politics, dictate policy. The new administration faces lawsuits asking it to review cases in which political interfer-

ence may have played a role in withholding protection and critical habit

THE ISSUE: A grandiose 2015 moon mission has been given no money.WHAT NEXT? Fund the moon initiative or kill it outright. TheOrioncrew vehicle is behind schedule and over budget, which will probably pthe space shuttle to continue ying even further past its retirement age.

THE ISSUE: Carbon-dioxide levels are at 385 ppm, up from 360 in 2000.WHAT NEXT? Look for American participation in internationalnegotiations over the Kyoto Protocols successor, and for automobilefuel-economy standards to be raised.

dinosaurs true colors revealed

Last year, researchers at Yale University discoveredorganelles called melanosomes on a 100-million-year-old dino feather. This year they will examinethe shape and concentration of the melanosomes todetermine the original colors of winged dinosaurs.

feds aim to save ecosystems

A new approach used by conservation biologists at theU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service highlights environmentaltrends to direct rescue funds toward bigger-picturecauses, such as agricultural runoff, that affect not just

single species but entire ecosystems.

stem-cell science gets rebooted

Several groups have reprogrammed adult skin cellsto behave like embryonic stem cells using genesferried by viruses, a method that can cause the cellsto become cancerous. This years goal: Replaceviruses with chemicals that can do the job safely.

Mission: Invisible

Last year, scientists demonstrated the rst visible-

light metamaterial, a metal-semiconductor hybrid,paving the way to an invisibility cloak. Meanwhile,metamaterials that work with radio frequenciescould improve cellphone reception.

elusive black hole captured

Next year, astronomers will look into the heavensfor evidence of the rare medium-size black hole.Studies will try to establish why theyre so scarceand will combine traditional visible-light astronomywith x-ray emissions from star clusters. a.s.

Summer Fall Fall

SCIENCE IN 09P op S ci PREDICTS

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1,000 Human GenomesAfter sequencing its rst humangenome last July, California-based Complete Genomicsplans to map 1,000 humangenomes this year and anadditional 20,000 in 2010.

Dreamliner to First CustomersBoeing plans to nally start supplying more than60 airlines with the Dreamliners theyve ordered.The Dreamliner has been Boeings most popularprogram because the craft, which uses compositematerials for most of the planes body, requires20 percent less fuel than other planes its size.

DIMS EDISONS BRIGHT IDEAefciency of compact uorescent bulbs.) In its place, hardware stores willstock shelves with compact uorescents, halogens and LEDs.

The U.S. is making the switch too, albeit more slowly. By 2014, most light-bulbs will be 30 percent more efcient than those currently available. Incandes-cents arent going away, says Peter Banwell of the Environmental ProtectionAgency, but they will have a minimum efciency level theyll need to meet.C.B.

POWERED BY SUN,WIND AND SEATHE BIGGEST RENEWABLE-ENERGYPROJECTS OF 2009

Stem cells

research Funding

THE ISSUE: Stem-cell research is hampered by a federal funding ban.WHAT NEXT? The new administration could end federal restrictions, open-ing up the coffers. Additionally, the California Stem Cell Research and CuresInitiative will continue to generate $300 million annually for 10 years.

THE ISSUE: National Science Foundation and National Institutes ofHealth budgets are in decline, stiing key research.WHAT NEXT? Anyones guess. In the interim, private foundations couldfund medical, energy and agricultural innovation.

Offshore WindHull, MassachusettsThis resort town,population 11,000, plansto moor four 260-foot-tallturbines a mile and a halfoffshore, at a total cost of$40 million. Along withHulls two existing onshoreturbines, wind power couldgenerate 14 megawatts,enough to supply energy tothe entire community.

Solar Farms

Mojave Desert, California This fall, constructionbegins on a ve-square-mile stretch of heliostats,small moveable mirrorsthat follow the suns raysand reect them onto aboiler on top of a centraltower. The sunlight heats

water inside the boilerspipes to temperatures above1,000F, creating steam thatgenerates electricity in anearby turbine. By 2011, theplant will produce its rst100 megawatts.

Wave Power

Pembrokeshire, Wales As part of the U.K.s goalof running on 10 percentrenewable energy by 2010,this summer Wales willinstall a Wave Dragonconverter, the worldslargest wave-energygenerator. The 980-foot-long device captures wavesin basins. When the waterrushes back into the sea, itspins turbines, producingseven megawatts ofelectricity. C.B.

Late Year Late Year

C L O C K W I S E F R O M T O P L E F T : J

A M E S W A R W I C K / G E T T Y I M A

G E S ; C

O U R T E S Y E A R T H - V

I S I O N

. B I Z ; P

H A N I E / P H O T O R E S E A R C H E R S ; B M W

N O R T H A M E R I C A

RIDING THE WAVESThe Wave Dragon willbe moored off Wales.

TREE HUGGER Thewolverine is slated for

protected status.

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Rwanda and ComputingBy the end of the year, Rwanda will have laidmore than 1,400 miles of ber-optic cable.It will be the second country in sub-SaharanAfrica to have a strong Internet infrastructure,after South Africa. The Rwandan governmentwill also buy 50,000 XO laptops, created forchildren in developing countries, by early thisyear and intends to have all Rwandan schoolsnetworked by 2013.Greg Soltis

SHOWME THEMONEYGET PAID FOR YOURBRILLIANT, WORLD-SAVING INVENTIONS

Progressive Insurance Automotive X Prize

PURSE: $10 million GOAL: $7.5 million for a commerciallyviable vehicle that gets the equivalent of 100 mpg over 200 milesSTATUS: The rst stage of a cross-country race takes placein New York City in September. The fastest, most efcientcars move on to the next leg of the race.

Archon X Prize for Genomics

PURSE: $10 million GOAL: Sequence 100 human genomes in10 days for $10,000 per genome or lessSTATUS: ZS Genetics, which is developing an approachthat replaces uorescent tagging with decodable electron-microscope images of DNA, is a favorite to win.

Spaceward Space Elevator Games

PURSE: $4 million GOAL: $2 million for a laser-poweredclimber; $2 million for the strongest two-meter tetherCOMPETITION: Three teams have a shot at winning the $2-million purse this year for powering climbers one kilometerinto the air using an eight-kilowatt laser on the ground.

google lunar x prize

PURSE: $30 million GOAL: Land an unmanned spacecraft onthe moon, rove 500 meters, and send images back to EarthSTATUS: Teams hope to sign launch contracts this yearwith either a foreign space agency or a private company likeSpaceX, securing a rocket ride for their moon rovers.

End of Year

Copenhagen Climate ConferenceThe Framework Convention on ClimateChange that the United Nations will host inCopenhagen, Denmark, is the nal government-level meeting for developing a new internationalclimate policya Copenhagen Protocolbefore its predecessor, the 15-year-old KyotoProtocol, expires in 2012.

December

SCIENCE IN 09

ECO-SPEEDSTER Thethree-wheeled FuelVapor is an AutomotiveX Prize contender.

P R E C E D I N G P A G E S L E F T

, C L O C K W I S E F R O M T O P : C O U R T E S Y J A K O B V I N T H E R / Y A L E U N I V E R S I T Y ; R

Y A N M C V A Y / G E T T Y I M A G E S ; I

S T O C K ; N

A S A

P op S ci PREDICTS

Nothing inspires innovation like aseven-gure check, which is why moreand more private and governmentsources are offering big money forcreative technologiesand plenty of

Americans are rising to the challenge.The California company ScaledComposites won the $10-millionAnsari X Prize in 2004 for its trips tosuborbital space on SpaceShipOne , afeat that all but launched the privatespace industry. And in 2007, CarnegieMellon University won the $2-millionDarpa Urban Challenge, bringing usone step closer to a world in whichcars drive themselves.

This year we could see bigpayouts for innovations in genomicsand technology to be used to buildthe space elevator. And expect morechallenges to be announced. Dozensof smaller competitions are promisingimpressive bundles in exchange forbreakthroughs in alternative aviationfuels, cancer research and affordablehealth care. Pick a eld and prepareto quit your day job. Here, a tinkeringmans guide to getting rich this yearand beyond. Amanda Schupak

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MEDICAL KILLERS

COURTESYXPRIZEFOUNDATION ;COURTESYONELAPTOPPERCHILD

After years of testing in muddy elds,genetically enhanced ood-resistant riceis about to hit agricultural markets intropical Asia, following Indonesia, withIndia and Bangladesh up for approval

later this year. Cambodia, Laos, Nepal,Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnamare expected to follow suit.

Its a major step forward forweatherproof crops, increasingly toutedas essential to the long-term future ofthe worlds food supply. Advances inbiotechnology have improved this ancientgrain, which accounts for up to 70 percentof daily calories for people living in Asiancountries. Imperiled by constant oods,rising sea levels and natural disasters,submerged rice survives just four dayswhen deprived of light and oxygen. Thesenew varieties last eight to 18 days.

The advance is urgently needed. Atleast [58,000 square miles] of land inSouth and Southeast Asia are vulnerableto ooding, and oods will only increase,says Dave Mackill, a senior scientist withManilas International Rice ResearchInstitute (IRRI). In 2007, Cyclone Sidrdestroyed 1.25 million tons of rice inBangladesh; last year, multiple typhoons

RAINY-DAY RICEASIAN FARMERS WILLGET A DISASTER-PROOF VERSION OF ANESSENTIAL CROP

wiped out rice paddies in Vietnam.To nd a suitable template for the

ood-resistant rice, Mackill turnedto Indias water-tolerant FR13A rice.Farmers stopped using the strainbecause of its poor yield, but itsresilience intrigued him. To pinpoint thepart of the rice genome carrying thetrait, Mackill crossbred a hardy derivativeof FR13A with another rice strain andderived 4,000 other rice plants from thatcross. Geneticist Pamela Ronald of theUniversity of California at Davis thensearched the plants DNA and unearthedSub1A, a gene that triggers the grain toconserve energy when it is underwater.To create the nal rice strain, Mackillcross-pollinated a Sub1A-containingplant with a high-yielding, better-tastingIndian rice variety.

In the coming years, IRRI re-searchers will supplement Sub1-class

rice with a gene that resists oodingduring the sensitive germination stage

(something the Sub1 genes cant do).Also on the agenda: drought- and salt-resistant rice, now testing in nearlyevery Southeast Asian tropical countryand China. Asias inland and coastalareas often have salt-lled soil, whichstunts rice growth.

The IRRI has already made itsrice seed available to other researchinstitutions and has been distributing itto Asian farmers for free. When sold byother seed growers on the commercialmarkets, the price should rival thatof common varieties. We anticipateadoption wherever submergence isa regular problem, Mackill says.If the rice is a success, climate-resistant crops may spread acrossthe developing world, as well as thedeveloped. M.d.

NORMAL RICE SURVIVES JUSTFOUR DAYS UNDERWATER.

PUT A LID ON ITCURBING CARBON FOR PROFITThis year , in conjunction with talk about climate change, youll probablyhear the words cap and trade being tossed around, and President Obama isexpected to sign climate-change legislation that includes a cap-and-trade bill.But what does the term mean?

A cap-and-trade system will institute a nationwide limit on greenhouse-gas emissions and ne those companies that produce more than their share.

In the rst and most controversial stage of setting up a cap-and-trade system, thegovernment selects the organizations to monitor emissions and sets a maximumamount of heat-trapping gases that any company can produce during a given time.

Companies then receive, or buy in auctions, tradable permits to emit a specicamount of these gases. The setup nancially rewards businesses that bring theiremissions below the cap: They prot from selling their allowances to other companieHeavy emitters buy these unused credits and avoid even pricier overage nes.

Could it work? Quite possibly. This system has already limited sulfur dioxidefrom electric power plants at half the cost of traditional regulation.C.b.

WET WORK Farmersplant rice seedlingsin Thailand.

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IKE A COWBOY loosely holding thereins, Larry Weatherman steers upDeer Creek Road with his left hand

on the wheel, his right armready at his side. His upper

body rocks with the motion of thepickup as he navigates the dirt roadsgauntlet of potholes and rocks. Sincehis retirement from the MissoulaCounty Sheriffs Department in 2000,Weatherman has adopted the bushy

white mustache and Stetson of agentleman rancher. But on a snowy Saturday in March, he has driven histwo passengers the 50 miles downfrom his 20 acres above MontanasSeeley Lake to revisit the forlorn

woods that served, three decades ago,as the dumping grounds for Montanasmost notorious serial killer.

A gust of snow hits the windshield.

Through the swirl, Weatherman spotsa narrow break in the pine and rtrees lining the road. He pulls intoa shallow ditch and opens his door.

He liked to take his girlfriends uphere to party, he says.

Weatherman was a young ofcerin 1974 when he investigated therst in a series of gruesome murdersthat ended a way of life in Missoula,a place where people had left theirdoors unlocked and women feltcomfortable walking home alone

America is haunted by 100,000 missing persons and 40,000 unidentied

sets of remains. Only one lab can truly connect the lost and the deadand its revealing the secrets of serial killers in the process

Marci Bachmann at age two. Facingpage: the skull of Debbie DeerCreek, unidentied for decades.

By Jessica Snyder SachsPHOTOGRAPHS BY ANDREW GEIGER

FIELDWORK


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from the local bar. The rst victim was a preachers wifefound gagged, bound, andshot in the basement of herhome, her husbands handgunjammed between her legs. Inaddition to questioning thehusband, Weatherman briey suspected a high-school boy

who neighbors had spotted in the victims backyard that day. A grandjury found insufcient evidence tocharge either suspect.

Over the next 12 years, theseemingly random murderscontinued. Three teenage girls anda married couple were killed, andthe town suffered a spate of homeintrusions thought to have beenthwarted rapes. Then the improbablehappened. In 1986 the husband of

a would-be victim, already trussedand stabbed, managed to breakfree and kill 30-year-old WayneNance in a bloody struggle. Nance,

The number of missing-person investigations and un-identied remains means murders often go unreported .

U.S. criminologists now suspect there could be 1,800serial killings a year far more than prior estimates.

A lab at the University of North Texas analyzes DNA toidentify victims , and closes cases in the process.

THREE KEY FACTS

123

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a baby-faced furniture deliverymanand part-time bouncer, was thehigh-schooler Weatherman hadsuspected in 1974. Postmortemsearches of Nances bedroomand his fathers house uncoveredevidence of at least three additionalmurders and of other break-ins.

But hope for further informationabout the murders died with Nance.Weatherman was left with theunidentied remains of two young

victims. One of them was DebbieDeer Creek, a teenager whose skeletonhe had chiseled out of a frozen gravealongside Deer Creek Road some21 months before Nances death.Several strands of dyed hair enabled

Weatherman to connect her to aphoto of a dark-haired drifter that barpatrons knew as Robin before shedisappeared a few weeks after movingin with Nance. Weatherman sent outscores of bulletins to the FBI andregional law-enforcement agencies.But the girls picture and street namefailed to locate family.

It would take more than hairstrands and a faded picture to identify Debbie Deer Creek. It would taketechnologystill two decades awaythat could extract minute amounts of fractured DNA to reveal an indeliblelink to a victims family. It wouldtake one brothers unceasing searchto nd out what happened to hisrunaway sister. And perhaps most of all, it would take the U.S. Departmentof Justices slow but horrifyingrealization that there may be far moreserial killers on the loose in Americathan anyone had ever expected.

For two decades, a facial

reconstruction made from DebbieDeer Creeks skull sat on top of Weathermans bookcase facing that of another girl, Christy Crystal Creek,discovered by a hunter two milesfarther up the same mountain road

FIELDWORK


P R E C E D I N G P A G E S ( L E F T ) : C O U R T E S Y D E R E K M

. B A C H M A N N

HAUNTED Retired Missoula sheriffLarry Weatherman [above], who in-vestigated Nances murders. Below:a topographical map of the scene.

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above Nances home. Weatherman isstill troubled when he thinks of thenameless girls. I know somebody once cared for them, he says.

THE SILENT MISSING

Debbie and Christy are far from alone,and the same may be said for the likesof Wayne Nance. In a recent issue of the scientic journal Homicide Studies ,criminologist Kenna Quinet wrote thatconventional calculations seriously underestimate the number of serialmurder victims. The problem may be10 times worse than we imagined, shesays. Instead of 180 victims a year inthe U.S., there may be as many as 1,800.

Quinet, a nationally renowned

homicide expert at Indiana-PurdueUniversity Indianapolis, bases herconclusions on simple arithmetic.According to the Departmentof Justice, up to 40,000 sets of unidentied human remains sit inpolice-evidence lockers and medicalexaminers ofces across the nation.If resolved cases are any guide,the majority are murder victims.Against this, Quinet factors thehomicides suspected in a signicantproportionas much as 20 percentof missing-person cases, more than100,000 of which remain open at any time in this country.

Quinet bolsters her new estimates with evidence of the lengthy careersof the serial killers who are eventually caught and convicted. Typically,these killers operate under the radarfor years, even decades, she explains.Studies show that male serial killersaverage six to 11 victims over a nine-

year period. Female serial killers

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