Birth rate

Deathrate

Immigration

Emigration

What about what’s in the

bath?

What does this bath represent?!?

Population Change

ALL population change is the result of natural change or migration

During the next few weeks we will study the different factors that affect natural change, and the causes and consequences of migration.

Key Definitions

Birth RateBirth Rate‘the number of births per 1000 people per year’

Death RateDeath Rate‘the number of deaths per 1000 people per year’

Natural ChangeNatural Change‘the difference between the birth rate and death rate. It tells you by how much the population is changing per 1000 people each year’

MigrationMigration‘the movement of people from one area to another’

Population Change• What do we know?–Population has grown rapidly in the

last 200 years–Levelled off a little, but still

expanding by 80million a year–By 2050, population will be 9billion–By end of the century, it may be

0%growth

Population Change• What do we know?– The growth within the world is not even– Europe, N.America and Australasia have

very low growth rates• Only 20% of world’s population, by 2050 this will be 12%

– Europe’s population will shrink by 90million between now and 2050

– In that period, China India and Pakistan will contribute most to global growth

Worldwide Population

What Causes Population Change?

Demographic Transition Model

DTM

• The Demographic Transition Model shows the changes in a country’s population over time

• It gives information on birth and death rates

• It has five stages

DTM

• Stage One– High, fluctuating

• Stage Two– Early expanding

• Stage Three– Late expanding

• Stage Four– Low, fluctuating

• Stage Five– Fluctuating/declining

Demographic Transition Model

DTM

• It was based on Britain’s development, and some other industrialised countries, in the 19th and 20th Centuries

• They had gone through several ‘stages’ during their development

• It was found that other countries went through the same change

DTM• STRENGTHS– Shows change over time– Can be related to the UK– Easy to understand– Puts events into a sequence, and helps to

explain the changes• WEAKNESSES– Not as relevant for non-industrialising

countries– Doesn’t include migration– Countries hit by HIV/Aids have gone back to

stage one, so harder to predict their futures– Original model has had to be adapted to

include 5th stage

DTM

• One good way to remember the countries at each stage – ABCD!

• A = Afghanistan• B = Bolivia• C = China• D = Denmark• E = Erm, Germany (Ein, Zwei,

Drei?!?)