Politics january 16 2013

7/29/2019 Politics january 16 2013

1/62

Planet Debate Politics 1.16.13 p. 1 of 62General, Hagel, Guns, Climate, Debt, Citizenship

General Obama Approval High .................................................................................................................. 3

General Winners Win ................................................................................................................................ 4

General Economy Key to Approval ............................................................................................................ 5

General Agenda Link Turn ......................................................................................................................... 6

General Political Polarization High ............................................................................................................ 7

General Executive Action = No Link ........................................................................................................... 8

General Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................... 9

General Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................. 10

General Political Capital Loss Inevitable .................................................................................................. 11

General Obama Must Watch Out for Democratic Opposition ................................................................... 12

General AT: Capital Fleeting in Second Term ........................................................................................... 13

Hagel Nomination Yes Schumer ............................................................................................................ 14

Hagel Nomination Yes Schumer ............................................................................................................ 15

Hagel Nomination Yes Boxer ................................................................................................................ 16

Hagel Nomination NO AT: Schumer ...................................................................................................... 17

Hagel Nomination Hagel Good ................................................................................................................ 18



Hagel Nomination Uncertain Needs Political Capital ............................................................................. 21

Hagel Nomination No Impact .................................................................................................................. 22



Hagel Nomination Hagel Good Iran ...................................................................................................... 25

Hagel Nomination Not Certain ................................................................................................................ 26

Hagel Nomination Hagel Bad................................................................................................................... 27

Gun Violence Brink ................................................................................................................................. 28

Gun Violence Control Works ................................................................................................................... 29

Gun Violence Obama Will Push ............................................................................................................... 30

Gun Violence Obama Needs Political Strength ......................................................................................... 31

Gun Violence Public Supports Control ..................................................................................................... 32


2/62


Path to Citizenship GOP Can Defeat ........................................................................................................ 33

Path to Citizenship Will Pass ................................................................................................................... 34

Path to CitizenshipWont Pass ................................................................................................................ 35

Path to Citizenship Internal Link Agenda Crowding ............................................................................... 36

Path to Citizenship Inevitable .................................................................................................................. 37

Path to Citizenship Inevitable .................................................................................................................. 38

Path to Citizenship Already Done Border Enforcement ............................................................................ 39

Path to Citizenship Obama Will Push ....................................................................................................... 40

Path to Citizenship Not Inevitable ........................................................................................................... 41

Climate Change Obama Can Boost Renewables ....................................................................................... 42

Climate Change Renewables Not Growing ............................................................................................... 43

Climate Change Obama Key to Climate Change ....................................................................................... 44

Climate Change Government Action Necessary ....................................................................................... 45

Climate Change Obama Global Leadership .............................................................................................. 46

Climate Change Coal Coming Back ........................................................................................................... 47

Climate Change Coal Regulations Help the Economy ............................................................................... 48

Climate Change Carbon Tax Helps Economy ............................................................................................ 49

Affirmative Climate Change Carbon Tax Hurts Economy ....................................................................... 50

Affirmative Climate Change Carbon Tax Hurts Economy ....................................................................... 51

Affirmative Climate Change No Carbon Tax Solvency ............................................................................ 52

Affirmative Climate Change No U.S. Solvency ....................................................................................... 53

Affirmative - Climate Change Regulation Has Huge Benefit ...................................................................... 54

Affirmative - Climate Change Pressure to Enact Regulations .................................................................... 55

Debt Ceiling Dollar Impact ...................................................................................................................... 56

Debt Ceiling Impact ................................................................................................................................. 57

Debt Ceiling Impact - Economy ................................................................................................................ 58

Debt Ceiling AT: Dollar Scenario .............................................................................................................. 59

Debt Ceiling AT: Dollar Scenario .............................................................................................................. 60

Debt Ceiling AT: No Impact Can Make Selective Payments .................................................................... 61

Debt CeilingThreat Alone Wont Hurt Economy ...................................................................................... 62


3/62


GENERALOBAMA APPROVAL HIGH

OBAMAS APPROVAL RATING IS HIGHEST IN 3 YEARS ANGUS REID POLL

Angus Reid Public Opinion 1.10.13

[http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/48569/approval-rating-for-president-obama-improves-markedly-in-u-s/]

Barack Obama heads to his second term as President with his best approval rating in morethan three years, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found. In the online survey of arepresentative national sample of 1,006 American adults, 54 per cent of respondentsapprove of the way the United States President is handling his duties (+4 since December),

while 41 per cent (-4) disapprove.This is Obamas highest rating since August 2009. The AmericanPresident currently has the highest level of support in the Northeast (56%), and the lowest inthe South (52%).

OBAMA HIGH APPROVAL RATING ZOGBY POLL

Forbes Magazine 1.13.13[http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-into-inauguration/]

A new Zogby Poll shows President Barack Obama with his highest approval ratings inyears.The poll of 826 likely voters nationwide, conducted by Zogby Analytics January 10-12,gives the President a 56% approval rating, while 42% disapprove. Mr. Obama receivesmajority approval ratings from men (52%) and women (59%), Democrats (91%) and

independents (55%); 18-29 year olds (68%), 30-49 year olds (60%), and 50-64 year olds (53%);Hispanics (65%), African Americans (95%), the Creative Class (57%), and Weekly Wal-MartShoppers (58%). Moving beyond his base, the President gets a 40% approval among evangelical

voters, 25% among conservatives, and 16% among Republicans.


4/62


GENERALWINNERS WIN

SPENDING CAPITAL ON THE FISCAL CLIFF HELPED OBAMA VS. THE GOP

Forbes Magazine 1.13.13

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnzogby/2013/01/13/president-obama-rides-high-into-inauguration/]

In terms of handling the recent legislation averting the fiscal cliff, President Obamareceives a net positive approval rating (52%-43%) as does Vice-President Biden (47%-46%).Senate Democrats fare poorly (36% positive-56%), but not as badly as both SenateRepublicans (14%-77%) and Speaker John Boehner (16%-68%), who are pounded by allsides.


5/62


GENERALECONOMY KEY TO APPROVAL

THE PRESIDENTS APPROVAL WILL RISE AS THE ECONOMY IMPROVES

Hrafnkell Haraldsson, Politics USA, 1.11.13

[http://www.politicususa.com/president-obama-popular-term.html]President Obama inherited the economy Bush and the Republican destroyed . Obama hasbeen impeded in every effort to restore the economyby those selfsame Republicansand the

American people have noticed, as polls demonstrate. It is almost a certainty that Obamasapproval will continue to rise as the economy improves, while Congress remains less popularthan lice.
http://www.politicususa.com/congress-popular-lice-popular-meth-labs-lindsey-lohan.htmlhttp://www.politicususa.com/congress-popular-lice-popular-meth-labs-lindsey-lohan.htmlhttp://www.politicususa.com/congress-popular-lice-popular-meth-labs-lindsey-lohan.htmlhttp://www.politicususa.com/congress-popular-lice-popular-meth-labs-lindsey-lohan.html


6/62


GENERALAGENDA LINK TURN

OVERLOADING THE AGENDA WORKS IN OBAMAS FAVOR

Chris Stirewalt, Digital Politics Editor, Fox News, 1.14.13

[www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/01/14/obama-looks-to-overload-gop-opponents/]Gun control, Defense cuts, two controversial nominees, more borrowing without offsetsand amnesty for illegals: thats a menu designed to give Republicans indigestion. In 2009,Obama overloaded the circuits of a Democratic Congress with lots of big plans . WhileCongress was still getting over the massive stimulus spending package, Obama came back with feesfor carbon emissions and his new health-insurance entitlement program. Obama ended up getting

what he wanted on insurance, but it was a heckuva battle, even with majorities in both houses ofCongress. The global warming fees and other initiatives mostly went by the wayside.This timeObama is actually hoping to overload Congress.The plan seems to be to have Republicans

running from fight to fight that they cannot find a central point on which to unite andoppose him. The presidents vision is ofa Republican fire brigade running from blaze toblaze, but never able to focus on putting one of them out .


7/62


GENERALPOLITICAL POLARIZATION HIGH

PARTISAN POLARIZATION IN CONGRESS HAS INCREASED

Caitlin Huey-Burns, Real Clear Politics, 1.14.13

[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/01/14/obama_and_boehner_in_need_of_couples_counseling_116672.html]

The Democratic-controlled Senate might be a vehicle for future deals between the White Houseand Capitol Hill, but the partisan polarization within the new Congress may be even greaterthan in the old.Boehners inability to keep House Republicans in lock-step is well-documented.

The gist of the problem is a Republican caucus, many members of which are second-termTea Party proponents who believe that holding a majority in half of one of three co-equalbranches of government should give them an equal say. From inside that restive GOPcaucus, however, the prevailing view is that the country is spiraling down a deep spending

crevasse from which there would be no climbing out. If we dont use the opportunity where wehave a divided Congress and White House to try and get the best thing for the future . . ." FloridaRepublican Rep. Tom Rooney told RCP, his voice trailing off in dismay. And so, he said, the timeto use what leverage the GOP has is now: "Two generations from now, we can say we were theones who helped assist saving Social Security and preservingMedicare. Similar dynamics are at

work in the Senate -- and in both parties. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell helped thenation avert the fiscal cliff by cutting a deal with Vice President Joe Biden. By way of thanks,McConnell was greeted in the New Year by attack ads from a conservative advocacy group askingwhich side the Kentucky Republican is on.


8/62


GENERALEXECUTIVE ACTION =NO LINK

EXECUTIVE ACTIONS DONT DRAIN THE PRESIDENTS POLITICAL CAPITAL

Peter Grier, Christian Science Monitor, 1.15.13

[http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0115/Obama-and-gun-control-What-actions-could-he-take-on-his-own]

The reasons the White House might see the executive action route as attractive are obviousCongressional action is uncertain, and there is substantial opposition, even amongsome Democrats, to banning whole weapon classes such as assault rifles. Executive actioncould allow Obama to trumpet some progresson gun control at a time when the tragicshootings at Sandy Hook Elementaryin Newtown, Conn., are high in public thought. Yet suchaction would require little political capital on his part and would not distract from hisefforts on something voters still say is their top prioritykeeping the economy on track.
http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/The+White+Househttp://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/U.S.+Democratic+Partyhttp://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/U.S.+Democratic+Partyhttp://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Sandy+Hook+Elementary+Schoolhttp://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Newtown+(Connecticut)http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Newtown+(Connecticut)http://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/Sandy+Hook+Elementary+Schoolhttp://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/U.S.+Democratic+Partyhttp://www.csmonitor.com/tags/topic/The+White+House


9/62


GENERALPOLITICAL CAPITAL LOSS INEVITABLE

OBAMA FACES CONTROVERSY AND BATTLES WITH CONGRESS ON MANYFRONTS LOSS OF POLITICAL CAPITAL INEVITABLE

Russell Berman, The Hill, 1.12.13

[http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/276797-new-year-but-no-fresh-start-for-obama-gop]President Obamas second term hasnt begun yet, but a set of new fights with Republicansis already well underway.Another major budget battle, immigration reform and guncontrol top his 2013 agenda, and this week he announced a trio of key Cabinet nominationsthat could complicate all three of those priorities.A potential ally on immigration, Sen. LindseyGraham (R-S.C.), called Obamas nomination of former Sen. Chuck Hagel (R) for defense secretaryan in your face move, while the top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, Jeff Sessions(Ala.) angrily denounced his pick of Jack Lew to head the Treasury.As for John Brennan, Obamas

choice for CIA chief, Republicans are signaling they could hold up his nomination until theadministration provides long-sought answers to their questions about the deaths of four Americansin Benghazi last September. Most troubling for the president is that the latest vitriol is comingfrom the Senate, the chamber of Congress with which the administration has gotten along(relatively) well in the last several months.The House, on the other hand, is verging on alost cause for Obama.The president and Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) are barely onspeaking terms after their latest failed bid to strike a grand bargain on the deficit, and thereappears to be minimal overlap between Obamas top priorities and those of HouseRepublicansnamely entitlement reform, spending cuts and broad tax reform. All of whichexplains whythe word honeymoon has not been uttered in Washington since early 2009.


10/62



THE NEXT BUDGET BATTLE WILL BE BIGGER THAN THE LAST

Irwin Stelzer, director economic policy studies, Hudson Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/march-madness_693767.html?page=3]If you think that the last-minute deal to avoid going over the fiscal cliff solves anything,think again.The Congressional Budget Office reckons that last weeks deal

will increase the deficit over the next 10 years by some $4 trillion, despite adding $600 billionto our tax bill. To understand why, pore over the 154-page bill and consider its handouts to

windmill operators and producers of all sorts of fuels other than those God put in the earth (acontinuation of the presidents transformation of the energy sector); its extension ofunemployment insurance; its tax relief for mortgage-debt forgiveness and other goodies. Worsestill, the table is now set for what Republican senator Lindsey Graham calls Round Two ,

which he says is coming, and were going to have one hell of a contest about the direction and thevision of this country. The White House puts it slightly differently: We are headed for 60 daysof nastiness. Others call it the politicians version of March Madness, during which threeinterrelated problems will give Congress another set of opportunities for late-night sessions.


11/62



A GRAND BARGAIN IS VERY UNLIKELY

Irwin Stelzer, director economic policy studies, Hudson Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/march-madness_693767.html?page=3]Perhaps. But many of the politically savvy folks here in Washington very much doubt that2013 will be the year of the grand bargain. For that to happen the president would have toadmit to himself, and then force the nation to confront, the consequences of loomingentitlement spending, and persuade his party that entitlement reform is not inconsistent

with Democrats historic support for an expansion of the welfare state. On the other side,Republicans would have to accept more wealth redistribution than they like, for that is

what means-testing of benefits is, and what tax reform really means.

Surely, none of the events leading up to last weeks deal suggest such a bargain is in theoffing. It took substantial arm-twisting by Vice President Joe Biden to get Senate and HouseDemocrats to agree to move the level at which taxes would go up from $250,000 to $450,000 forfamilies, and they remain sullen if not mutinous. In the course of the negotiations SenateDemocrats even refused to change the inflation index for Social Security to a more accurate,slower-rising index, although the president had said such a change makes sense. Or even toconsider increasing the age at which certain entitlements will become available, even if that change

were to affect only those Americans still far from retirement. In short, the left has yet to bepersuaded that there arent enough rich people to pick up the bill for the lavishentitlement buffet that liberal politicians have laid before them.

Republicans are even less likely to make the concessions needed for a grand bargain. Onlya minority of House Republicans voted in favor of the cliff deal, and as the 2014 primariesloom, even fewer will sign on to any tax increases the president demands. Speaker John Boehner,

who voted for the deal, is also likely to hang tough in the March negotiations. He knows that hismajority leader, Eric Cantor, a man who has a lean and hungry look, voted against the deal as apredicate to a leadership challenge. For the moment Cantor has decided to sheath his blade, butanother display of reasonableness by Boehner might make the Ides of March a troublesome day forthe speaker.


12/62


GENERALOBAMA MUST WATCH OUT FOR DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION

DEMOCRATS COULD BLOCK THE PRESIDENTS AGENDA

Josh Kraushaar, National Journal, 1.11.13

[http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/obama-s-ambitious-second-term-agenda-could-backfire-20130111]

The White Houses ambitious agenda on gun control, immigration reform, and, perhaps, evenclimate change is a sign that President Obama believes he locked up precious politicalcapital with his reelection and intends to spend it quickly. But that isnt welcome news tomany of the Democrats who need him the most in the short term--the seven Democraticsenators in conservative states facing tough reelection bids. Just one week into the new year,Obama has already hit some unpleasant stumbling blocks with his own party. On guncontrol, the White House is now calculating that it will be exceedingly difficult to pass broad

measures, The New York Times reports, a sharp U-turn from its optimism heading into the newyear. Senators from the presidents own partyare the ones giving him trouble over his nominee forDefense secretary, former GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel, with one of the presidents most partisanbackersprivately expressing doubt about whether hell support his nomination.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/11/us/politics/biden-to-meet-with-gun-advocates-including-nra.html?ref=todayspaperhttp://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/as-chuck-schumer-goes-so-goes-chuck-hagel-86043.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/as-chuck-schumer-goes-so-goes-chuck-hagel-86043.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/as-chuck-schumer-goes-so-goes-chuck-hagel-86043.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/as-chuck-schumer-goes-so-goes-chuck-hagel-86043.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/11/us/politics/biden-to-meet-with-gun-advocates-including-nra.html?ref=todayspaper


13/62


GENERALAT:CAPITAL FLEETING IN SECOND TERM

OBAMAS POLITICAL STRENGTH MAY HAVE STAYING POWER

Howard Fineman, Huffington Post, 1.14.13

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/howard-fineman/obama-second-term-the-road-forward_b_2468998.html]

For most reelected presidents, power fades quickly. That may not be true in Obama's case .Laws he passed in his first term can be implemented without going back to a nettlesomeCongress.The world economy could be poised for a new round of growth. His Republicanfoes are in retreat and disarray. He can back them into a corner or woo them one-by one, as hedid recently on the "fiscal cliff." He was a novice at Washington and at the give-and-take of

politics four years ago. Now he has a feel for the game.


14/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONYESSCHUMER

SCHUMER SUPPORT MAKES HAGEL NOMINATION VERY LIKELY

Manu Raju, Politico, 1.15.13

[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagels-nomination-86215.html]

New York Sen. Chuck Schumer announced Tuesday hed support Chuck Hagelsnomination as defense secretary, removing a major obstacle to his nomination and greatlyincreasing the chances hell be confirmed, even as Hagel continues to face opposition from theright. Schumers backing is a major sign that Democrats who have expressedsqueamishness over his nomination are starting to come on board. Andwith Democratsnow holding a 55-45 majority in the Senate, Hagels prospects greatly brightened withSchumers support for his nomination.

SCHUMERS SUPPORT WILL BRING ALL DEMOCRATS TO HAGEL

Manu Raju, Politico, 1.15.13[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/chuck-schumer-says-hell-support-chuck-hagels-nomination-86215.html]

Schumers support may mean a major tipping point for Hagels nomination, given his cloutwithin the Senate Democratic Caucus and his deep ties to pro-Israel hawks on and off theHill. And theyre an important sign that Democrats who have expressed concerns over his

nomination are starting to come on board, as Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) did Monday night.Most notably, Democrats have raised concerns that Hagel has been too quick to call for directengagement with Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah rather than push tougher measures preferred by pro-Israel members of the Senate Democratic Caucus. But Hagel has appeared to have alleviatedthose fears ahead of his crucial confirmation hearingsbefore the Senate Armed ServicesCommittee in the coming weeks.


15/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONYESSCHUMER

SCHUMER IS THE DECIDER ON THE HAGEL NOMINATION

Chris Cilliza, Washington Post, 1.14.13

[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/01/14/how-chuck-schumer-can-make-or-break-chuck-hagel/]

What seems abundantly clear is that if Schumer could make his decision on Hagel in a politicalvacuum, he would probably vote no. But he cant. Schumer is widely regarded as the nextleader of Senate Democrats and, as such, his opinion matters a great deal. If Schumersignaled that he would vote no, it would give cover for other Democrats to follow suita dominoeffect that almost certainly would destroy Hagels chances.Schumer, of course, knows that. Andhe doesnt want to own the defeat of (and blame for) a Cabinet nominee put forward at the cusp ofObamas second term. So, if personally Schumer has reason to oppose Hagel, politically he has

every reason to support him. Schumer, being one of the smartest strategists in the Senate,understands that he likely holds Hagels fate in his hands. Given those stakes, our (educated) guessis that if Hagel is apologetic about some of his past statements during his meeting with Schumer,the New York Democrat will find a way to say yes. Regardless of where he ends up, make nomistake: Chuck Schumer is the decider on the fate of Chuck Hagels nomination.

SCHUMER WAS THE KEY LYNCHPIN FOR HAGELS NOMINATION

Washington Post 1.15.14[http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/schumer-to-back-hagel/2013/01/15/ffd46fc8-

5f23-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story.html]Schumer had become a key linchpin in the nomination battle, as many senior Republicanshave expressed deep doubt about Hagels confirmation. If Schumer had opposed Hagel, then acrucial bloc of pro-Israel Democrats might have joined him and made confirmation impossible.Schumers announcement follows the public endorsement of Hagel by Sen. Barbara Boxer(D-Calif.), another prominent Jewish Democrat who is also a senior member of the ForeignRelations Committee.


16/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONYESBOXER

SUPPORT FROM BOXER SHOWS HAGEL WILL WIN PROGRESSIVE SENATORS



The White House and Hagel both clearly recognize that wooing Jewish DemocratslikeSchumer and Boxerare a top priority before the former Nebraska GOP senatorsconfirmation hearings. Hagel sent a letter Monday to Boxer, also outlining a more hawkish stancetoward Hezbollah and Iran. Hagel apologized for previously using the term Jewish lobby, callingit a very poor choice of words. And Boxerwho does not serve on the Armed ServicesCommitteeannounced her support of Hagel, a sign of growing support on the left.


17/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONNOAT:SCHUMER

SCHUMER SUPPORT WONT SWAY REPUBLICANS



Schumer added Hagel gave him several assurances that U.S.-Israeli cooperation wouldcontinue if hes confirmed, saying that the former Nebraska GOP senator would push fordelivering F-35 joint strikers to Israel. Hagel reportedly said hed urge the president to declinejoining in any NATO exercises if Turkey insists on excluding Israel. Still, such assurances aloneare not enough to stop opposition among Republicans, who believe Hagel espouses adoveish world view. Among other things, they are quick to criticize his furious oppositionto the troop surge in Iraq, which they call a success, and they say his words do little to correct a

12-year Senate record that didnt fully advocate for Israeli interests.


18/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONHAGEL GOOD

HAGEL IS RIGHT ON DEFENSE SPENDING

Doug Bandow, Cato Institute fellow, 1.14.13

[http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2013/01/14/the-dishonorable-smear-of-chuck-hagel-a-warrior-who-despises-war/]

Moreover, military spending must come down. Hagel called the Pentagon bloated andsaid that spending needs to be pared down. Which is true. Military outlays haveincreased dramatically since President George W. Bush turned into a fiscal liberal.Today theU.S. spends almost as much as the rest of the world combined .Washington devotes moremoney in real terms to the Pentagon today than during the Cold War, Korean War, or

Vietnam War. Few outlays go to the defense of America. Most goes to protect populous andprosperous allies, such as Europe, South Korea, and Japan. Much of the rest goes to foolish,

counterproductive nation-building in countries like Afghanistan and Iraq.


19/62



HAGELS VIEWS REFLECT PUBLIC OPINION ON INTERVENTION



In this regard Hagel well-represents the American people.They are angry after being lied toabout the Iraq war, which they recognize was terrible mistake.Thousands of Americansand hundreds of thousands of Iraqis died as a result of a lie propagated by self-serving Iraqimigrs and advanced by war-promoting Neocon activists.Americans also are tired of

Afghanistan. They supported destroying al-Qaeda for launching 9/11 and ousting the Taliban forharboring al-Qaeda. More than a decade later they have no idea why Americans are still dying,apparently in a dubious attempt to promote honest, competent, democratic governance in Kabul.

There was no popular enthusiasm for President Obamas questionable adventure in Libya.There is no citizen support for intervening in Syria. Backing for war with Iran likely woulddissipate once the high costs became evident.


20/62



HAGEL BELIEVES USE OF MILITARY IS A LAST RESORT



It is hard to think of a better candidate to run the Pentagon under such circumstances thanChuck Hagel. While recognizing that war can be necessary, he understandsout of both

personal experience and practical consequencethat war is best avoided, if possible.Unlike the war-happy Neocons, he sees military force as a last resort. For this reason he

proposes negotiation, even with diplomatic untouchables such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Healso is likely to bring a jaundiced eye to Pentagon budget-making . Someone has tochallenge the generals to rethink the status quo.Hagel, who could be the first enlisted man

ever to end up as Defense Secretary, isnt likely to be intimidated by someone with stars onhis shoulders.


21/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONUNCERTAINNEEDS POLITICAL CAPITAL

OPPOSITION IS FIERCE WILL TAKE POLITICAL CAPITAL FOR NOMINATION



Nevertheless, as one would expect, opposition to Hagel is fierce. The overriding objection tohim is that he is the living refutation of everything the War Party stands for . He fought inbattle, understands the human cost, offers skepticism rather than enthusiasm for newinterventions, and would be no Pentagon rubber stamp. A liberal with no military experienceand little confidence in military matters might be cowed or, better yet, coopted. Not Hagel.THE HAGEL NOMINATION WILL BE DIVISIVE

Senator Roger Vicker, R-Mississippi, 1.14.13[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/why-hagel-is-the-wrong-choice-to-lead-the-pentagon-86098.html]

The bitter tone of gridlock in Washington has left many Americans hoping for a more collaborativeenvironment to face the countrys most pressing challenges. Changes in the presidents Cabinetpresented a prime opportunity for coming together. Instead of seeking consensus, PresidentBarack Obama has forced confrontation with the nomination of former Sen. Chuck Hagelof Nebraska to be Americas next secretary of defense. Unlike outgoing Defense Secretary LeonPanetta, who was approved unanimously by the Senate, Hagel is expected to provoke a divisive

confirmation processat a time when Congress should be focused on urgent budgetissuesthat could dramatically change Americas defense strategy and capabilities.


22/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONNO IMPACT

HAGEL JUST REFLECTS OBAMAS FOREIGN POLICY

John Arquilla, Foreign Policy, 1.14.13

[http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/14/for_defense_less_beef_more_chuck?wp_login_redirect=0]

So,whether the issue is the surge in Iraq, the looming drawdown in Afghanistan, or thesize of the defense budget, Hagel's viewsoffer insightsthat all should hear -- and should sparkuseful, long-overdue debate about military and security affairs. His clear agreement with what Isee to be an emergent Obama Doctrine makes it possible to pursue a consistent, quiteinnovative strategic pathin this age of irregular wars.HAGEL WONT FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGE OBAMAS MIDDLE EAST POLICY

John Zogby, president Arab American Institute, 1.14.13

[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443]One thing should be clear, however, and that is if Hagel is confirmed there will not be a radicalchange in this Administration's approach to Israel or an American acceptance of an Iran

with nuclear weapons. Hagel and Kerry, like Obama, are supporters of Israel. TheAdministrationwill continue to support that state's defense requirements and, in all likelihood,will not rush headlong into a new Middle East peace initiative since they appear to believethat conditions for that simply do not exist. At the same time, Israel will continue to face theU.S.'s growing displeasure with its occupation and settlement policies . And the

Administration will not end its pressure on Iran to be more transparent with its nuclearambitions and agree with international community's insistence that they forsake advancedenrichment. But the Obama Administration will now be fortified by a team that understands thatengagement and not foolish adventurism is the best way to resolve the standoff while insuring that

we not be dragged into another potentially devastating Middle East war.


23/62



HAGEL WASNT WRONG ABOUT THE IRAQ SURGEIT DIDNT WORK

Arianna Huffington, Huffington Post, 1.15.13

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/neocon-nightmare-the-trut_b_2478673.html]

The relationship between Hagel and McCain goes back a long time. McCain was one of Hagel'searliest supporters and Hagel was one of the few who jumped on the "Straight Talk Express," back

when McCain was taking on what he called "agents of intolerance" in the Republican Party. UnlikeMcCain, Hagel managed to stay on the Straight Talk Express. And now McCain is grasping atstraws over Hagel's skepticism about success of the surge strategy in Iraq, somethingMcCain finds "bizarre." Back when it was being considered, Hagel said "This is a Ping-Pong game

with American lives," and that "we better be damn sure we know what we're doing, all of us, before

we put 22,000 more Americans into that grinder." Since then it's become accepted gospel inWashington that the surge was successful. Accepted gospel that is, once again, wrong.Doug Ollivant was an army planning officer in Iraq who was one of those who actuallyimplemented the surge. "The surge really didn't work, per se," Ollivant, now with the New

America Foundation says, adding, "Fundamentally, it was the Iraqis trying to find a solution,and they did."A study by U.S. Special Forces officer Maj. Joshua Thiel came to the sameconclusion. Thiel looked at where and when the additional surge troops were deployed andcompared that to subsequent drops in violence. As Foreign Policy's Robert Haddickput it,

Thiel concluded that there was no significant correlation between the arrival of U.S.reinforcements and subsequent changes in the level of violence in Iraq's provinces... the

connection between surge troops and the change in the level of incidents seems entirelyrandom.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57563702/mccain-significant-questions-about-obamas-cabinet-picks/http://www.salon.com/2007/01/24/iraq_204/http://www.npr.org/2011/12/16/143832121/as-the-iraq-war-ends-reassessing-the-u-s-surgehttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/15/this_week_at_war_what_if_the_surge_didn_t_workhttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/04/15/this_week_at_war_what_if_the_surge_didn_t_workhttp://www.npr.org/2011/12/16/143832121/as-the-iraq-war-ends-reassessing-the-u-s-surgehttp://www.salon.com/2007/01/24/iraq_204/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57563702/mccain-significant-questions-about-obamas-cabinet-picks/


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HAGEL AVOIDS RECKLESS, IDEOLOGICAL POLICIES


[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443]I know ChuckHagel. He is a thoughtful and sober advocate of the realist approach toforeign policy. His priority has always been to defend America's interests in the worldthrough diplomacy and, only when absolutely necessary, to commit American forces tocombat missions in defense of those interests. By disposition, he has an aversion toideologically-based reckless behavior.His criticism of the war in Iraq, his opposition to thereckless use of force against Iran, and his critique of Israeli actions that impede peace are well-known. So too was his refusal while in the Senate to participate in AIPAC's frequent "hoopjumping" exercises. He resisted signing, as he termed them, the pro-Israel lobby's "stupid letters."


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HAGEL NOMINATIONHAGEL GOODIRAN

HAGEL WILL NOT BE SOFT ON IRAN

Washington Post 1.15.14[http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/schumer-to-back-hagel/2013/01/15/ffd46fc8-5f23-11e2-9940-6fc488f3fecd_story.html]

Schumer said that his support was sown up after Hagelwhom Obama formally nominatedlast week after a month of preparationcommitted to several positions regarding Iran thatmet with Schumers preference. As a two-term senator, Hagel had been unique in positionscalling for direct talks the Iranian regime and opposing unilateral sanctions by the United Statesagainst the renegade regime. In a very detailed statement, Schumer said Hagel left no doubt thathe would support a very aggressive posture toward Tehran. Senator Hagel rejected astrategy of containment and expressed the need to keep all options on the table in

confronting that country. But he didnt stop there, Schumer said. In our conversation, SenatorHagel made a crystal-clear promise that he would do whatever it takes to stop Tehranfrom obtaining nuclear weapons, including the use of military force. He said his top priorityas secretary of defense would be the planning of military contingencies related to Iran .Hagel also pledged to continue supporting the delivery of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters to Israel and ingeneral supported Israels right to a strong qualitative military edge, as its leaders like to assert.


26/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONNOT CERTAIN

HAGELS NOMINATION IS NOT A SURE THING


[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443]Republicans see the possibility of further weakening and distracting the president by"roughing up" his nominee and will in all likelihood subject Hagel to tough grilling whenhe finally appears before the Senate Armed Services Committee for confirmation. Their questions

will, no doubt, focus on his support for Israel and his attitudes toward Iran.They will try to beathim into submission, forcing him to use the very shopworn language found the AIPAC letters herefused to sign when he served in the Senate. They will want him to demonstrate that he is morecommitted to Israel and more hawkish on Iran than he has been in the past.While I certainlyhope that Hagel won't fold under the pressure, I am bracing myself for a degree of

disappointment. And while I believe the president is committed and will fight for his nominee, Iam also prepared to acknowledge that Hagel's confirmation is not a sure thing.What is atstake for Republicans is far more than just Israel and Iran. It is the entire neo-conservativeenterprise that led the U.S. into two failed wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (which they cannot admit

were failures) and has them still advocating for more aggressive military engagements in Syria andIran.

OUTCOME ON HAGEL FAR FROM CERTAIN


[http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=56443]At this point, we know what the stakes are, but have no way of knowing how this will playout.Will Hagel fold? Will Obama surrender to pressure and pull his nominee, riskingdefeat and embarrassment? Or will the Senate defeat Hagel's bid for confirmation? Any ofthese would be a setback of substantial proportions. On the other hand should Hagel stay thecourse, making clear his support for Israel while asserting his freedom and independence tocriticize Israeli policies when necessary, and should Democrats decide to choose to support theirpresident instead of the lobby and the pressure from the neo-cons, then we might well be on our

way to a healthier political environment where realism trumps ideology and where honest politicaldifferences can be debated in our government without fear of retribution.The stakes are high,

but the outcome is far from certain.


27/62


HAGEL NOMINATIONHAGEL BAD

HAGEL AS DEFENSE SECRETARY WOULD BE A SIGN OF WEAKNESS

Senator Roger Vicker, R-Mississippi, 1.14.13[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/why-hagel-is-the-wrong-choice-to-lead-the-pentagon-86098.html]

My opposition to this nomination stems in part from Hagels flawed vision for Americasrole in the world and whether his selection signals a move toward a weaker defense by asecond Obama administration. In choosing Hagel, the president seems to suggest that hisapproach will be to downplay American leadership rather than strengthen it. In the past,Hagels decisions and statements have drawn significant concerns from Democrats andRepublicans. One is right to wonder whether Hagels views on issues affecting the countrysnational security interests would shape his doctrine as defense secretary . At the very least,

his nomination calls into question the national security priorities of the presidents secondterm.


28/62


GUN VIOLENCEBRINK

OPPORTUNITY IS RIGHT NOW FOR GUN CONTROL

New York Times 1.14.13

[http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/opinion/the-moment-for-action-on-gun-laws.html]The next few weeks represent a once-in-a-generation opportunity to harden the nations

gun laws and reduce the threat of rapid-fire violence in America . A month afterthe slaughterof 20 children and seven adults in Newtown, Conn., Vice President Joseph Biden Jr.scommission is about to present a series of recommendations for new laws, and it is vital that hispanel gets it right and that Congress immediately takes action on its report.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/nyregion/shooting-reported-at-connecticut-elementary-school.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/nyregion/shooting-reported-at-connecticut-elementary-school.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/nyregion/shooting-reported-at-connecticut-elementary-school.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/us/politics/biden-meets-with-house-democrats-on-gun-violence-proposals.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/us/politics/biden-meets-with-house-democrats-on-gun-violence-proposals.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/us/politics/biden-meets-with-house-democrats-on-gun-violence-proposals.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/nyregion/shooting-reported-at-connecticut-elementary-school.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/15/nyregion/shooting-reported-at-connecticut-elementary-school.html


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GUN VIOLENCECONTROL WORKS

UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS WOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE

New York Times 1.14.13

[http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/opinion/the-moment-for-action-on-gun-laws.html]The need for background checks on every gun buyer has never been greater, now that theInternet has made it easy for private individuals to buy and sell guns without screening .

The reason that both the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and Mayors Against IllegalGuns have made universal background checks their top priority is that 40 percent of gun salesnow take place privately, including most guns that are later used in crimes . Requiringbackground checks at gun shows, parking-lot sales and Web sites would reduce the cash-and-carry anonymity of millions of gun transactions, putting buyers on notice that theirsale is being recorded and can be traced.It is largely supported by legitimate gun dealers,

who already have to conduct the checks and have long grumbled about competition from thosewho do not. And it would have no effect on law-abiding buyers who want a hunting rifle or ahandgun to keep at home. Such a law should be supplemented by a presidential order requiringfederal and state agencies to contribute to the background check system with criminal and mentalhealth information. Federal prosecutors, who have a dismal record of pursuing charges againstthose who lie on a gun application, need to enforce the system vigorously.

UNIVERSAL BACKGROUND CHECKS WILL CUT GUN VIOLENCE

Christian Science Monitor 1.14.13

[http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0114/How-to-tackle-gun-violence-5-things-liberal-groups-want]Universal background checks. This first proposal is one that Democrats believe has

widespread support, even among Republican lawmakers: If you buy a gun, no matter who itsfrom, you have to pass a background check. Currently, private sellers make up about 40

percent of weapon transfers in the US every year.Whats known in some places as the gunshow loophole means that those barred from buying guns by other statutes can effectivelycircumvent those laws by obtaining a weapon from a private weapons dealer . When youvegot 40 percent of the guns that are going out [not receiving background checks], thats not aloophole. Thats an exception, Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Obamas former chief of staff,

said at an event Monday at the liberal Center for American Progress (CAP). Shutting thatexemption... is essential.This recommendation requires strong legislative language torequire states to contribute information toward national databases used for assessing

whether an individual should be allowed to purchase a weapon. At present, 10 states havesubmitted a grand total of zero names to the FBIs National Instant Criminal Background CheckSystem, and 18 other states have submitted fewer than 100, according to CAP.
http://www.bradycampaign.org/media/press/view/1560/http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/html/media-center/letter_121912.shtmlhttp://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/html/media-center/letter_121912.shtmlhttp://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/html/media-center/letter_121912.shtmlhttp://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/html/media-center/letter_121912.shtmlhttp://www.bradycampaign.org/media/press/view/1560/


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GUN VIOLENCEOBAMA WILL PUSH

OBAMA WILL PROPOSE BROAD GUN CONTROL MEASURES

Mary Bruce, ABC News, 1.15.13

[http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/obama-to-unveil-road-map-to-halt-gun-violence/]

President Obama is expected to detail a broad plan this week to curb gun violence , settingthe stage for what could be the largest Congressional battle over gun legislation in decades. Obamais reviewing the recommendations of Vice President Bidens task force, which were delivered tohim on Monday, and could outline his plan publicly as early as Wednesday. One month after thedeadly school shooting in Newtown, Conn., Obama has already promised to push for arenewal of the 1994 ban on some types of semiautomatic assault rifles, also known as theassault weapons ban, legislation to expand background checks, and limits on high-

capacity magazine clips.


31/62


GUN VIOLENCEOBAMA NEEDS POLITICAL STRENGTH

OBAMA WILL FACE FIERCE OPPOSITION ON GUN VIOLENCE

Mary Bruce, ABC News, 1.15.13

[http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/01/obama-to-unveil-road-map-to-halt-gun-violence/]

The most contentious items on the presidents to-do list will require Congressionalapproval and are expected to face fierce opposition from gun rights groups, including theNational Rifle Association which has already vowed to oppose efforts to limit access toguns and ammunition.RESTRICTING ASSAULT WEAPONS IS HIGHLY CONTROVERSIAL

Christian Science Monitor 1.14.13[http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Wire/2013/0114/How-to-tackle-gun-violence-5-things-liberal-groups-want]

Restrict the sale of assault weapons and high-capacity magazinesIf background checksenjoy the most consensus, what to do about restricting access to assault weapons is

perhaps the most controversial.The Brady Campaign, one of the most outspokenadvocates for increased gun control, gives only a single broad sentence to the subject in its

policy recommendations:Limit the availability of military-style weapons and high capacityammunition magazines that are designed for mass killing. But others have been a bit more specificat reviving a policy created under President Bill Clinton but allowed to lapse under President

George W. Bush. CAP endorsed a proposal by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) of California that wouldhalt the sale, transfer, importation and manufacturing of military-style assault weapons and high-capacity ammunition feeding devices. In other words, it would freeze ownership of weapons likethat used in the Newtown, Conn., massacre at its current level. Feinstein and other DemocraticSenators plan to introduce legislation to this effect early in the new session of Congress.


32/62


GUN VIOLENCEPUBLIC SUPPORTS CONTROL

PUBLIC SUPPORTS SPECIFICS OF GUN CONTROL

Los Angeles Times 1.14.13

[http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama-guns-20130115,0,5165926.story]

Two polls released Monday found broad public support for stronger background checklaws.AWashington Post-ABC News survey and another by the Pew Research Centerfound that more than 80% of respondents want federal background checks to be conductedfor private gun sales, including sales at gun shows, where they are not currently required.Much slimmer majorities expressed support for two other policy options mentioned byObamabanning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.
http://www.latimes.com/topic/arts-culture/mass-media/news-media/the-washington-post-ORCRP016752.topichttp://www.latimes.com/topic/economy-business-finance/media-industry/television-industry/abc-%28tv-network%29-ORCRP000009600.topichttp://www.latimes.com/topic/economy-business-finance/media-industry/television-industry/abc-%28tv-network%29-ORCRP000009600.topichttp://www.latimes.com/topic/arts-culture/mass-media/news-media/the-washington-post-ORCRP016752.topic


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPGOPCAN DEFEAT

GOP COMPROMISES SHORT OF A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP COULD DEFEAT IT

Matthew Yglesias, Slate, 1.15.13

[http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_get_rolled.html]

The last House GOP effort to split the high-tech visas question from the path to citizenshipquestion was an absurd partisan ploy.If Republicans want to get serious about it they should beable to make it work.The centerpiece would be something on increased immigration ofskilled workers. That's something the tech industry wants very much , it's a great idea on themerits, and few influential people have any real beef with it. High tech visas will easily generaterevenue to pay for some stepped-up enforcement.Then instead of adding on a poison pill soDemocrats will block the bill, you need to add a sweetener . Not the broad path to citizenship,but something small like the DREAM Act. Nowyou've got a package that falls massivelyshort of what Latino groups are looking for, but that I thinkDemocrats will have a hard timeactually blocking. After all, why would they block it? It packages three thingsmore skilledimmigration, more enforcement, and help for DREAMersthey say they want. Blocking itbecause it doesn't also do the broad amnesty that liberals want and conservatives hate wouldrequire the kind of fanaticism that is the exact opposite of Obama's approach to politics.

REPUBLICANS COULD BLOCK THE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP

Matthew Yglesias, Slate, 1.15.13[http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2013/01/15/immigration_reform_will_obama_g

et_rolled.html]Of the major policy issues under discussion in Washington, "immigration reform" stands out forhaving unusually undefined content. For the major immigration-advocacy groups, the goal isclear, a comprehensivebill that includes apath to citizenship for the overwhelming majority ofunauthorized migrants already living in the United States. But many other aspects ofimmigration law are in the mix as part of a proposed deal, and it seems to me that there's afair chance that a nimble Republican Party could essentially roll the Democratic coalitionand pass an "immigration reform" bill that doesn't offer the path Latino advocacy groupsare looking for.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/29/stem_act_dc_can_t_even_enact_the_immigration_reforms_nobody_proposes.htmlhttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/01/high_tech_immigrant_productivity_indian_computer_programmers_earn_a_huge.htmlhttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/01/high_tech_immigrant_productivity_indian_computer_programmers_earn_a_huge.htmlhttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/01/high_tech_immigrant_productivity_indian_computer_programmers_earn_a_huge.htmlhttp://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2013/01/high_tech_immigrant_productivity_indian_computer_programmers_earn_a_huge.htmlhttp://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/11/29/stem_act_dc_can_t_even_enact_the_immigration_reforms_nobody_proposes.html


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPWILL PASS

PAST OPPONENTS OF CIR NOW LIKELY TO SUPPORT

Marc Caputo, HispanicBusiness.Com 1.15.13[www.hispanicbusiness.com/2013/1/15/rubio_obama_diazbalart_roslehtinen_jeb_bush.htm]

Diaz-Balart and Ros-Lehtinen say this is the year that Congress needs to pass immigration reform.A major fault-line: Whether to give illegal immigrants a pathway to citizenship or a pathway toresidency. Still, this is the time, Diaz-Balart said because it's not an election year. So there'sless chance for hyper-partisan politics, Diaz-Balart said. It's also a new Congress. AndRepublicans, who blocked major congressional immigration legislation in 2010 and 2006,might be more willing to vote for immigration-reform plans as the lessons of 2012'selections are still fresh. Ros-Lehtinen pointed out that Democrats, too, have had problems withtheir voters when it comes to immigration reform. Labor unions, which tend to support

Democrats, have opposed guest-worker immigration programs in the past because they allowfor an influx of cheap labor from overseas. Unions now indicate, however, that they're willingto support a comprehensive immigration package.

OBAMA WILL GET IMMIGRATION REFORM EASIER THAN HEALTH CARE WAS

Steve Friess, Politico, 1.15.13

[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/obama-immigration-reform-congress-86210.html]

A top technology lobbyist said Tuesday he believes President BarackObama has the savvy and

political skill to navigate an immigration bill through even a divided Congress. IfPresident Obama can get health care reform through as divisive as it was, he can getimmigration reform done, too, said Consumer Electronics Association President andCEO Gary Shapiro at a POLITICO Pro Tech Deep Dive focused on the 113th Congress.


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPWONT PASS

OBAMA WILL COMPROMISE ON CIR DUE TO TIMING AND PARTISANSHIP

Mark Kennedy, Professor political management, George Washington Univ, 1.15.13[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718.html]

With a focus on the timing and the shape of immigration reform, five factors are operative:Awaiting lame duck status: Second-term presidents normally have a short window of time topass serious legislation before Congress picks up the mantle and starts driving the agenda .Continuing fiscal cliff battles: One consequence of not reaching a grand bargain on the fiscalcliff is that it ensures that further contests over how to resolve the nation's ongoingdeficits will suck much of the oxygen out of the most opportune time slot for legislativeaction: the period immediately following the president's inaugural address and the State of theUnion address. Partisan poisoning: One of the reasons a grand bargain was not reached was

that President Obama was most intent on winning a partisan victory over Republicans onraising tax rates. By choosing to focus more on the subsidiary goal of raising rates than on theprimary goal of raising revenue to reduce deficits, the president chose politics over policy,further souring relations with Congress. While President Obama clearly had the upper handpolitically in the tax debate, the lever of the debt ceiling tilts the playing field back to even when itcomes to resolvingthe new cliff that looms just two months away.Resolving the even morecontentious matter of reducing spending in such a pestilent environment is sure toconsume much time and energy.

FISCAL CLIFF PROVES THE PRESIDENT WILL HAVE TO NEGOTIATE ON CIR

Mark Kennedy, Professor political management, George Washington Univ, 1.15.13[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718.html]

Serious immigration reform will be addressed later and will be narrower than some mayhope.The sparse result of months of partisan wrestling over the fiscal cliff portends areduced likelihood that any of President Obama's second-term priorities, includingimmigration reform, will be addressed in the manner he outlines in his upcoming inauguraladdress. Compromise requires an effort from both sides. President Obama moved ontaxes from a $250,000 threshold to one of $450,000. Republicans were forced to accept that theycould not extend tax breaks for everyone. Reaching an agreement takes time and requires

each side to give, just as we witnessed in the tax debate.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/7/obama-a-lame-duck-president-lack-of-convincing-man/http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/7/obama-a-lame-duck-president-lack-of-convincing-man/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323635504578216253683816078.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_3http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323320404578215373352793876.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323320404578215373352793876.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/02/us/politics/house-takes-on-fiscal-cliff.html?hp&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/02/us/politics/house-takes-on-fiscal-cliff.html?hp&_r=0http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/gop-anti-tax-policy-goes-over-the-cliff-85657.html?hp=t1http://www.politico.com/story/2013/01/gop-anti-tax-policy-goes-over-the-cliff-85657.html?hp=t1http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/02/us/politics/house-takes-on-fiscal-cliff.html?hp&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/02/us/politics/house-takes-on-fiscal-cliff.html?hp&_r=0http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323320404578215373352793876.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323635504578216253683816078.html?mod=WSJ_WSJ_US_News_3http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/7/obama-a-lame-duck-president-lack-of-convincing-man/http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/nov/7/obama-a-lame-duck-president-lack-of-convincing-man/


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPINTERNAL LINKAGENDA CROWDING

ADDING ISSUES TO THE AGENDA, LIKE THE PLAN, RISKS CROWDING OUT CIR

Mark Kennedy, Professor political management, George Washington Univ, 1.15.13

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-r-kennedy/immigration-reform_b_2426718.html]Lack of focus: In order to really drive the direction of a major reform effort, a president must

prioritize and avoid cluttering the playing field with numerous other initiatives at the sametime. In his first inaugural address President Obama laid out a broad agenda but failed to achieveresults until he narrowed his focus to health-care reform. Clearly energy, immigration and taxreform legislation are all desperately needed, but all cannot be done at once.Adding gunreform to the mix, regardless of its merits, will decrease the likelihood of action on other

prioritiesand will elevate the level of partisan rancor.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/us/politics/20text-obama.html?pagewanted=allhttp://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2012/12/30/obama-guns-second-term-agenda-meet-the-press/1798715/http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2012/12/30/obama-guns-second-term-agenda-meet-the-press/1798715/http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2012/12/30/obama-guns-second-term-agenda-meet-the-press/1798715/http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2012/12/30/obama-guns-second-term-agenda-meet-the-press/1798715/http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2012/12/30/obama-guns-second-term-agenda-meet-the-press/1798715/http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/us/politics/20text-obama.html?pagewanted=all


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPINEVITABLE

CIR WILL PASSITS INEVITABLE DUE TO POLITICAL INCENTIVES

Frank Sharry, Founder, Americas Voice, 1.15.13

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.html]For Democrats this proved that the best way to deal with this so-called Republican wedgeissue is not to run from it but to lean into it .This is what Harry Reid in Nevada andMichael Bennet in Colorado did in 2010, with evident success. In 2012 President Obamashowed that it could work on a national scale. (Read the new America's Voice report onimmigration lessons from the 2012 elections for more 2012 analysis). What does this mean for2013 and 2014? It means that the president will make immigration reform his top post-fiscal-cliff legislative priority. Democrats are more united than ever on immigration and aredetermined to make Republicans play or pay.Meanwhile, movement conservatives andRepublican leaders alike are seeing the demographic writing on the wall and calling for theGOP to embrace immigration reform.They know that the party faces an existential crisis:

The GOP has to regain its competitiveness with Hispanic voters or go the way of the Whigs.
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/homeland-security/274551-gops-demographic-cliff-and-the-new-politics-of-immigrationhttp://act.americasvoiceonline.org/page/-/americasvoice/reports/Americas_Voice_2012_Post_Election_Analysis_Memo.pdfhttp://act.americasvoiceonline.org/page/-/americasvoice/reports/Americas_Voice_2012_Post_Election_Analysis_Memo.pdfhttp://americasvoiceonline.org/research/republican-conservative-movement-leaders-support-immigration-reform/http://americasvoiceonline.org/research/republican-conservative-movement-leaders-support-immigration-reform/http://americasvoiceonline.org/research/republican-conservative-movement-leaders-support-immigration-reform/http://americasvoiceonline.org/research/republican-conservative-movement-leaders-support-immigration-reform/http://act.americasvoiceonline.org/page/-/americasvoice/reports/Americas_Voice_2012_Post_Election_Analysis_Memo.pdfhttp://act.americasvoiceonline.org/page/-/americasvoice/reports/Americas_Voice_2012_Post_Election_Analysis_Memo.pdfhttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/homeland-security/274551-gops-demographic-cliff-and-the-new-politics-of-immigration


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPINEVITABLE

REPUBLICAN OPPOSITION WILL BE OVERCOME BY OUTSIDE GROUPS CIRWITH A PATH TO CITIZENSHIP IS INEVITABLE

Frank Sharry, Founder, Americas Voice, 1.15.13[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/frank-sharry/immigration-reform-2013_b_2443025.html]

Sowhat is likely to happen?A broad legislative proposal, one that puts 11 millionundocumented immigrants on the road to citizenship,will be championed by the

president, drafted on a bipartisan basis and approved by the Senate, with bipartisansupport, sometime this spring.With comprehensive immigration reform favored by the

public by a 2-to-1 margin,a bipartisan breakthrough in the Senate could send thosenumbers as high as 3 to 1. Then it will be up to the House of Representatives. Once againSpeaker Boehner will find a bipartisan majority in the House, but not if he insists on a

"majority of the majority." Andwhile he will feel pressure from some on the hard right toresist reform, he will feel at least as much pressure from others on the right, such asbusiness executives, evangelicals, law enforcement officials, Latino Republicans andconservative thought leaders. In the end the House leadership will find a way.They simply

will not want to bear the blame for keeping the Senate and the White House out of reachfor Republicans for a generation.The bottom line: Immigration reform is an idea whosetime has come. Americans want it, Democrats have promised it and Republicans need it .
http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/gop-ponders-immigration-reform-and-so-does-public-20121113http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/gop-ponders-immigration-reform-and-so-does-public-20121113http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/gop-ponders-immigration-reform-and-so-does-public-20121113


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPALREADY DONE BORDER ENFORCEMENT

BORDER ENFORCEMENT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED THIS GETS BY ONE OFTHE GOPS KEY ISSUES ON CIR

Elise Foley, The Huffington Post, 1.15.13[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/the-road-forward]

It starts with a lesson from his first term. Republicans have demanded that the border besecured first, before other elements of immigration reform. Yet the administration has beenby many measures the strictest ever on immigration enforcement, and devotes massivesums to policing the borders.The White House has met many of the desired metrics forborder security, although there is always more to be done, but Republicans are still calling formore before they will consider reform. Enforcing the border, but not sufficiently touting its recordof doing so, the White House has learned, won't be enough to win over Republicans. In a briefing

with The Huffington Post, a senior administration official said the White House believes it has metenforcement goals and must now move to a comprehensive solution. The administration is highlyskeptical of claims from Republicans that immigration reform can or should be done in a piecemealfashion. Going down that road, the White House worries, could result in passage of the lesspolitically complicated pieces, such as an enforcement mechanism and high-skilled worker visas,

while leaving out more contentious items such as a pathway to citizenship for undocumentedimmigrants. "Enforcement is certainly part of the picture," the official said. "But if you go back andlook at the 2006 and 2007 bills, if you go back and look at John McCain's 10-point 'This is whatI've got to get done before I'm prepared to talk about immigration,' and then you look at what

we're actually doing, it's like 'check, check, check.' We're there. The border is as secure as

it's been in a generation or two, so it's really time."

STUDIES PROVE WEVE PRIORITIZED BORDER ENFORCEMENT ALREADY

Elise Foley, The Huffington Post, 1.15.13

[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/the-road-forward]Last week, the enforcement-is-working argument was bolstered by a report from thenonpartisan Migration Policy Institute,which found that the government is pouring moremoney into its immigration agencies than the other federal law-enforcement effortscombined.There are some clear metrics to point to on the border in particular, and Doris

Meissner, an author of the report and a former commissioner of the U.S. Immigration andNaturalization Service, said she hopes putting out more information can add to the immigrationdebate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/07/immigration-enforcement-cost_n_2425647.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/07/immigration-enforcement-cost_n_2425647.html


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPOBAMA WILL PUSH

THE PATH TO CITIZENSHIP WILL BE NON-NEGOTIABLE FOR OBAMA


[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/the-road-forward]Citizenship will be another major question. Obama has consistently said that a path tocitizenship is vital to immigration reform, and it will be a non-negotiable in his plan . It

wouldn't be the "amnesty" decried by some on the right. It would likely involve fines, Englishtests and "going to the back of the line," which means waiting for possibly a long, long time.


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PATH TO CITIZENSHIPNOT INEVITABLE

FINAL PASSAGE OF CIR IS STILL POLITICALLY UNCERTAIN


[http://www.huffingtonpost.com/news/the-road-forward]It's not clear whether the politics have changed enough for a bill to pass . Conservatives

who stress the enforcement first approach dont think so. Mark Krikorian, executivedirector of the Center for Immigration Studies, rejects the findings of the Migration Policy Instituteand fears that reform might not prevent future swells in unauthorized immigration -- a key goal,after all, of any new policy and the major sticking point for many, if not most, Republicans inCongress. "I don't think the basic reality has changed," Krikorian said of immigration

politics. Conservatives see too much of what they regard as lenience in Obama's actions todate. They note that the administration has in some cases decided not to deport undocumented

immigrants it detects, although the percentage of criminals being deported has gone up.Conservatives point to the deferred action policy for young undocumented immigrantsand guidelines that put a low priorityon removing some other categories of immigrants. Suchconcerns allow some Republicans to draw a hard line on the idea of citizenship for theundocumented.Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas), a key figure in the ongoing debate and theformer head of the House Judiciary Committee, said on Mondaythat Congress shouldn't trust thepresident on "mass amnesty" and that a bill including citizenship "will have a hard time" inthe House.

STILL NO GUARANTEE THAT 2013 IS THAT DIFFERENT ON CIR

Marc Caputo, HispanicBusiness.Com 1.15.13

[www.hispanicbusiness.com/2013/1/15/rubio_obama_diazbalart_roslehtinen_jeb_bush.htm]But the complexity, the emotions and the host of special interests involved in theimmigration debate have paralyzed Congress for years. It's unclear now if 2013 is anydifferent.The polarized Congress could barely stave off the so-called "fiscal cliff" debt-and-spending controversy last month.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/18/officials-change-deportation-policy_n_930688.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/14/lamar-smith-immigration_n_2472063.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/14/lamar-smith-immigration_n_2472063.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/14/lamar-smith-immigration_n_2472063.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/18/officials-change-deportation-policy_n_930688.html


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CLIMATE CHANGEOBAMA CAN BOOST RENEWABLES

OBAMAS CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES CAN BOOST RENEWABLE ENERGY

Technology Review, Open Letter to President Obama, 1.2.13

[http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-deal-with-climate-change/]

Renewable energy sources, like solar and advanced biofuels, are simply not yet ready tocompete with fossil fuels. Solar power, for example, still generates less than 1 percent of ournations electricity and, under most circumstances, remains much more expensive than electricitygenerated from fossil fuels.We need new and far more advanced technologies. Creatingcleaner ways to produce energy will require inventions in physics and chemistrylabs andinnovations in how we scale up and test those inventions. And itwill require marketincentives, such as a tax or some other price on carbon dioxide emissions, to encourageconsumers and industry to use clean energy.Your administration can play a critical role ineach of these areas, from increasing funding for energy R&D to helping establish facilities wherecompanies can share the costs and risks of testing new technologies. Perhaps most important, you

will need to rally the nation around the issue of tackling climate change. Only with broad publicsupport can you hope to push a recalcitrant Congress into passing legislation that willestablish some form of carbon pricing.


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CLIMATE CHANGERENEWABLES NOT GROWING

NATURAL GAS AND SHALE OIL DISCOVERIES ARE UNDERCUTTINGRENEWABLE ENERGY

Technology Review, Open Letter to President Obama, 1.2.13[http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-deal-with-climate-change/]

Adding to our difficulties is the recent boom in our countrys production of fossil fuels, includingnatural gas and related deposits of shale oil. Already, the glut of cheap natural gas created byadvanced drilling technologies and by the nations vast supply of shale gas has made itdifficult for renewable energy to compete on price. The inexpensive energy made available bythese drilling activities is good news for the overall economy, but it is also a stark reminder that themotive for adopting non-fossil fuels is not market-driven but isand always has beena simple

one: we must do it to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and begin stabilizing our climate.


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CLIMATE CHANGEOBAMA KEY TO CLIMATE CHANGE

OBAMAS TERM WILL BE DECISIVE IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE BATTLE

Technology Review, Open Letter to President Obama, 1.2.13

[http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/508841/dear-mr-president-time-to-deal-with-climate-change/]

But as extensive and exacting analyses over the last decade have shown ,we can no longerwait without risking dramatic upheavals in global security and the health and welfare ofhundreds of millions of the worlds inhabitants. The International Energy Agency reports thatglobal emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion reached a record 31.6 metricgigatons in 2011.To have a decent chance of limiting the average global temperatureincrease to 2 C and avoiding the most devastating effects of climate change, we will needcarbon emissions to peak at no more than 32.6 metric gigatons, and to start falling no later than

2017. The president who takes office that year will thus be facing a far more urgentproblemprobably, like you, with no political consensus on how to solve it. But as a presidentin his final term, you have a chance to take risks.You have the power and the opportunity tolay the groundwork for a new clean-energy policy that will help us avoid the worstconsequences of climate change. It is quite possible that if this is not done over the next four

years, it will be too late.


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CLIMATE CHANGEGOVERNMENT ACTION NECESSARY

NEW REPORTS SHOW GOVERNMENT ACTION NECESSARY TO PREVENTCLIMATE CHANGE

Coral Davenport, The National Journal, 1.11.13[http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-all-climate-change-regulations-20130110]

This week, Obama heard a wailing siren warning him to stick to his pledge: On Monday, theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that 2012 was by far thehottest year on record in the contiguous U.S.It was also the nations second-most-extreme

year for destructive weather events, with 11 disasters sustaining $1 billion each in economiclosses. On Friday, a new draft report by 13 U.S. federal agencies concluded that rising temperaturescaused by fossil fuel emissions have directly contributed to increased wildfires, the spread of insect-

transmitted disease, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and decreasing water supply across theU.S. Scientists said the evidence is unequivocal that the heat and catastrophic weather arelinked to climate change caused by fossil-fuel pollutionand that without governmentalaction to stop that pollution, worse destruction is on the way.
http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/http://ncadac.globalchange.gov/


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CLIMATE CHANGEOBAMA GLOBAL LEADERSHIP

ACTION BY THE U.S. IN THE NEXT YEAR WILL BE KEY TO GLOBALLEADERSHIP ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Coral Davenport, The National Journal, 1.11.13[http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/obama-faces-dilemma-on-mother-of-all-climate-change-regulations-20130110]

But the president doesnt have the luxury of time.The rest of the world is awaiting actionfrom Washington. At a 2009 United Nations summit, Obama signed an accord pledging that theU.S. would reduce its carbon pollution 17 percent by 2020. And in 2015, the nations of the worldare scheduled to come together to sign a landmark, binding global treaty to cut carbonemissions enough to stave off the most catastrophic effects of climate change . There is no

way, experts say, that the U.S. can meet its existing climate pledge, let alone sign on with any

credibility to a future global treaty, without either a new climate law from Congress or new EPArules on existing power plants. And if the United Stateshistorically, the largest global-warming polluterfails to show it can meet its climate pledge, theres no reason to expectthe rest of the worlds nations to live up to their obligations. The new regulations on existingplants are going to be essential for the U.S. to meet its commitment internationally, said JenniferMorgan, director of the climate and energy program at the World Resources Institute, athink tank. If the U.S. is seen as not acting, then other countries can hide behind the U.S.It will make it very difficult for the U.S. to have any credibility or influence .


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CLIMATE CHANGECOAL COMING BACK

RISING SHALE PRICES MAKING COAL COMPETITIVE AGAIN COAL CARBONEMISSIONS WILL START TO RISE

John Parnell, Responding to Climate Change, 1.10.13[http://www.rtcc.org/coal-comeback-threatens-obamas-climate-change-policy/]

New figures released this week by the Energy information Administration (EIA) reveal thatthe use of coal by power plants is increasing again after being displaced by cheap domesticshale gas in recent years. In 2011 Coals share fell below 40% for the first time since 1978. Nowthose figures are heading up again, and emission levels will surely follow. Coal emitsaround twice the CO2 of natural gas per unit of energy generated as well as generatinggreater levels of other pollutants that damage human health. Climate change envoy ToddStern hailed the 8.6% drop in electricity related emissions at the UN climate talks in Doha last

month but rising shale gas prices are making coal cost competitive again.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=5331http://www.rtcc.org/stern-shale-gas-boosting-us-climate-action/http://www.rtcc.org/stern-shale-gas-boosting-us-climate-action/http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=5331http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/


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CLIMATE CHANGECOAL REGULATIONS HELP THE ECONOMY

REPLACING COAL PLANTS INCREASES JOBS

John Parnell, Responding to Climate Change, 1.10.13

[http://www.rtcc.org/coal-comeback-threatens-obamas-climate-change-policy/]The focus of the War on C

Politics january 16 2013

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