Political situation in Republic of Moldova / April 2008 / Ion Marandici, Sergiu Panainte, Alexandru...

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POLITICAL

SECURITYSTATEWATCH

&

No. 4 (11), April 2008

VIITORUL

Monthly analytical bulletin on Moldova issued by IDIS Viitorul

FRecent changesoF the electoRallaws andtheiR possiblepoliticalconsequences

ReadingthRough lines:eus innuendo

about thepRogRessMoldova

achieved on theway to euRopeanintegRation

FRozenconFlicts

as new politicaltechnologies

www.viitorul.org

The Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDS) Viitorul is a research, education

and outreach organization which activates in the field of economic analysis, governance, law, political

sciences, strategic and organizational science. It was set up in June 1993 in Moldova as a nongovernmental,

not-for-profit organization, nonpolitical entity.


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POLITICAL & SECURITY STATEWATCH

T r r rr

M . T r m.

T mjr r r r r rm 4% 6%, r rm r-r k, r r m tv m r rmr .

sm m mr r mr

m. Fr , r rr k m r M mr. Mrr m r m mr Mmr: M prm.

Electoral Threshold: from 6% to 6%o ar prm r

r r rm 4% 6%. ar

r r, m xr r

5%. J r rm cmm mjr k cr dmr 6%r. T x rm5 6% r mrmr r.

i m rmr 2001 2005

k r 6%. ar 2005 , rrr m 4%. T r dmr pr,dmr d m

rr r rr cmm r

r. h, mjr r r 4% r 2005 r . s r 2007 , r r cmm r. i r dmr2007 r r prm r r 5% r r r 6%. e c er r r

r r, k 4% r. i m cmmmjr rr r 2001 2005 . T rm r r r r x prm r m pr, r grm. Mrr j 4% r

r r prm, r rr m . w r r rmr r k r r prm?

T rr rm r m. Fr ,mr r prm r r

r rr. s, rr r m r r rr r r m

b I Maadii

[email protected]

Recent changes of the electorallaws and their possible politicalconsequences

DoMestIc

PolIcy sector


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Monthly analytical bulletin on Moldova issued by IDIS VIITORUL

3

r r r rr-r k r

r prm. Tr, rr r r rr m.T r rm r rrm r . T rr rr m, h m r r r .

ar r Mr J rr mr r r

r r mr, r r rr r-m r r r prm. T mrr, r , r r r m.

T m cmm vm M r rmr rr r

m: w r r r 20%, cmm pr r prm, 6%. i r r er rm , r r r r -mr m m k M , rrr r. o r

F, nr, M pr rr r m mr M, r r. T r rr rr r rr.l k xm trk r prm rr 45%

r . T R rm 1995 r ukr 2006r xm

m r r r.T 6% rrr

r r, r rr rm r k

r rrr. T M mkr k

mr m k rr r. or

rk prm 2009 rr mr r.

Interdiction of Electoral BlocksT 2009 r

r-r k r. T r

rr . t rrr: ar 19 pr sdmr dmr br s dmr pr erM. T , r mr s lr pr osrr dmr pr dmr d.

i r , rs dmr r mr, rr

r r, m r m r cmm. i rmrprmr . e k rr rrm, m k r. s dmr rr r r mmr r, natommr M rr m r

M .T mr m

r, r dmr pr r r nato mmr mr mr. pr, dmr pr r, mmr ir sMm. a m, s lr

pr r rr r r r r-Rm.

hr, r rm r r


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r r. T r r r prm, r

. T r xr r-r rm r . i mk rm r rr rm k r . i r m rr rr . i rr cr dmr r r r r r

m r. ar, r rm r M nr a pcRM. T r r r .

i m cmm r r rr r. i r r i r, kr Mrl pcRM r x x rrm r . T

cmm r r r r rr rr -r .

Other Changesor rr -

m, rr r m .

ar , tv r r r

r r rr r. dr r r r r r, mr m , m. a, r r r .

b r , r xm r grm rr . i

2002, cmm r , ar 2008 rr r r . T r r

r x mr rr

r .T r rr rr

. T, rm rr rm . pr, r rr r r .

First weeks of the new GovernmentFr k grm

r r m.hr, r r grm r. T tr rm r r r.

Mrr, r l rmrrmr m r grm .

T rr r m rr m mr (pcRM), mm- r

r m r.T m r

cr dmr lrdmr.


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5

b si [email protected]

Reading through Lines:EUs Innuendo About the ProgressMoldova Achieved on the Way toEuropean Integration

ForeIgnPolIcy sector

Overview

o 3 ar cmm ercmm r cmm coM(2008) 164 c prmrr imm ernr p 2007

r rr. cmmsf wrk dm m mm prr Rr M

m mr r err M. w rr rxm, er cmmm x rr r rr.

T m M ukrFr Mr sr-ork m M-ukrr, rr

r mr m r: rr, trr rm, . Tm r rr r rpr yk c. Tr k r r rr trr .

brr r r rmrk M-Rm r . br sm brr tr arm

M rr r r r r Rm rr . o r , c k brr arm

r , sm brrtr.

EUs Incomprehensible Diplomacy:Language of Courtesy vs. Languageof FranknessT prr Rr r

nmr 2006 31 dmr 2007. u m M r

a p. a r pss eu c rm r mr: M mm rrm, m r r r, j m r rm r , rr r mrm rm.

n , rr r r rr cmm r r r

r r r. T cmm r TR M m rr mr r rr r. Frr cmm r 2007 mjr m m M r r mr r r fr . T m r r eu m m r mr

r r r r rm r r. ifr , M r r rm r .


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or mjr m rr cmm r rr mr

rmrk rr r r r.. r r rm rm, r eu brr a M (eubaM). T r r pss rr m M mm r

a p.nr, j r eu

r mmm m m, cmm m rr .. rr m, f mm rrm rm . T rrr r j rrm rr r m rm mr m m.u r eu rm r a

p mm. Mrr, , r rrm eu rr, m jr, rr, k m rm rr m m. ur r M, r rrr m r fmr mrk m r mr .

or, rr

r, rm mr r m trr , m rrm, r rr rrm,

j r, rr, rm, . hr, m mrr r M r k

. i r kM m eu m r r r.

w rr mk rr

r r m r, cmm r xm ukr.i r m, M rm n e arm

ukr r r. T n e arm (nea) k

r pss r eu rm nea rM mr r rm.

w m mr , eu mm rr. i r, m , . T m , r m rr . i r

r cmm mrk M a p mm, rrm . Fr k eur mr r r r . Trr, mr

r mr rk r mk rfr. w j r rr r. a m m cmm rm pR eu a

p r .

a rk m mr mk r r r. orr r m r eu rk r rm. T rm rm r m mk r r r. h, rr fr

M r r mrmr , eu mrrr r r r. prr r r r mr m r r m r rk.T m r eu

rr M r r m. sr f. Trr, m rj. n r rr

r , rk, rrr r r r rr m M. Tr r .


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7

Moldova and Ukraine: Time toRally Up, Territorial Issues Can WaitT ukr Fr Mr ork

c m M rrsr m m rr. i r r pr vr r r smr m t Fr, ar 11 rm r 7 r . T r fr m

m trr .Frrmr, r r r

r x m rm rr M-ukr rr. T x rrr r m r rm r mr.s, m mmrr rr jm. i x eubaM

r r mr rm.

n, r c K r trr. T

r r xr M ukr. T m x r r rr r M r, r rr trrr r M ukr, r .

T r rmr k trr

rm r m . s R k r k, M ukr r r rm -. M r rm m r r R, r Rr rrr. T r xm r ukr r-r rR r ukr rm jnato r eu. T m r M

.g r, r r

ork r pr yk c . T rr r R r m

r ukr M, r mr. hr, yk mvr, M r r p. Rr rm Kk mmrm

m vr cmm r. w Rr r mr trr. Fr m r ukr er r r. wr m r, M r rr r m

mk rrr m rr m M trm. i m r r ukr r r . T m eu eubaM r .

Any Solution to Reconcile the Positionsover Moldovan-Romanian Border?T M-Rm rr r

rm r r

M Rm. T m r r r r rr pr Rr . s Rm m mmr eu rr r rk . b rrm eu rr r, Rm M r r rm . a r m brr arm b tr rr 2000 r r j r r.

hr, xr rm r rm fr r r m.

i eu rr rr eu xr rr, Rm m r m sm brr tr arm

m rr M rxm Rm rr rr . Trm r M

r rr r Rm rmk . b , r r . hr, M r.


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cmm r Rm rr x

rr R M. T x r br brr arm r rr . o r , Rm r rm j r brr arm r r r r

r r r rr x s u Rm rr rr Rm

R M.Frm r,

r Rm . s M r Rm 1940 r rr rr M m r. n Rm R M, rm r M r rrr r r . w Rm

k rr rrr R M k r su rm Rm r rr r.

T rmr m r r.T r r , r mr. er rm r r r

xr r

m r. T mm r, r r r r mm. br r c r rm cmm. i r r rr r r. M j eu Rm . i r r r r Rm M

mrm vr rr r.

Prognosis ar r mr

r r M. i r eu r prr Rr mm ap d m er cmm k r rr M r, r r mk r r m .M rr rrm,

rr jr, m rm, rr. hr rr

rmrk, r r, rm rm eubaM. Fr r M r n e arm,

m r a p. o m, k r eu m , M m r nea 2008 2009.

ar rm k 5+2

rm r M, x r ukr. T ukr r mr r yk c

vr r.T x m rm r rj k.

o r rr M r br r brr

arm. Rm r,

r r . w r r r m . Tr mrm r r r r. Mr k brr arm prb rr rrr r. T r c br. T r rm r rr

rm r r 2008 .


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9

by Alex [email protected]

Frozen conflictsas new politicaltechnologies

securItyPolIcy sector

Overviews Mr 2006, r

k rmrk 5+2rm, r r m rm . a mr , m ukr, R, osce, us eu, m r 5+2 rm mr mr 3+2 rm. ar rm m, r trr rm r r r m R wr r.

o rr, r mm rr r r trr , k nr r r , r r

. tr r mr r M pr, vmrvr trr r, irsmr, m rm k r m r .

vmr vr r r Krm r rr M. a r, 2007, r mr r

m R M pr, r r r. i, M pr r m irsmr, r m 2001,

r vmr vr r m rm r r r.

o r , ir smr r M m m k, r mr rr, c, r trr xrr. i, x m, m eubaM, rm k, trr . s ,ir smr rm c m k trr r .

o 7- ar, rm k nr, rr

m vmr vr ir smr. ar pr sr M pr, r r m. d m r m,

k 11- ar.ar r m rm , r , r m,

M pr r , r r r r r rm rm xr, rr r- mr.


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a mr , r rr, vmr vr ir

smr m .t r mr , r r, . s r m, r k r R r.

Georgian Euro-Atlanticsvs. Moldovan neutrality

a rmr -

s , r mm rdr i, r r ,

k r ,r r r c t r, r r r r r r rrr .

a m, 2001,pr vmr vr trr rmr m. nr, rm r r m, , , r , , m, rr r. Mrr, r r Kk Mmrm 2003,

k nr m rrr. t - mk, r rr mm r xrrm trr, rk rm --.

i r r mk us r J, m trr. t mm

k rm , r Rm l r. F, r r kr t r

r r, r r r

nr R M, trr r. n rm, M r r r r M r rr R Fr.

a rr gr , mr t R R,t r rr r r

ak s o . ar r rr, M sk gr pr, gr mr r r . i , gr r rnato mmr r ,

r r r

x gr .a er-a ,

R Fr rrm gr r rr r . Mrr, R pr r R grm r mr rr r ak s o R gr m rr

r r r rrr R. i r m rr r, r mr M sk.

Frozen conflicts or frozen regimes?u r r, m r

r r er-a m r

rr r r . Mrr, gr M

r r -s xr r r r


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11

eu. i , mmr guaM rmrk

r r rm kr, r r k rmrk guaM.

nr, r nato smm br, . ir r, smm, r r vmrp, r

r r RFr r r r r.o , r

gr, rr m nato mmr. o r , r - mr r pr vr trr , m 2007. i , R

r vmr vr ir smr r r k.

a r , m rr r gr, rm rr rk m trr r. nr, r mmk, m mr . t k rr

r r, r . er gr M, rM, r r, r r r. a M sk rm r, r r , rmr. i , R r r r r r,

rr m grpr.

o r , rr -gr

mr, pr vmr p r R grm

m mr rm gr mr r Rmrk, k r m R r, r m m . br mr, R r gr R r , , m m, m r-R

r.i rr M, r r

R m rm r mr r r. e r r rr, rr r r r r, rr, r r r R . am M r, cmm m k r r-R r,

r er r.i , R r m

r r r m rr r R r M. i , R rr r-R r Mcmm, m rr trr . u x rmr , r r m xr rm

c tr, r rr rr m k.i , r M, rmr, m r, rrmr t c.

PrognosisRrr r r

r trr ,

ar sr, Mr Fr ar er ir, r lj, rm


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Te Bulletin is a bilingual monthly publication aiming toprovide analysis on various elements of domestic and foreign

policy, as well as on some issues of special interest for Moldova.

Political and Security Statewatch authors: Ion Marandici,Sergiu Panainte, Alex Leanu.

In order to subscribe to the distribution list of Political andSecurity Statewatch bulletin, please contact us by e-mail:

[email protected] and distribution of the bulletin: Ghenadie

Mocanu.

Contacts:Chisinau, 10/1, Iacob Hincu Str., 2009 MD, Republic of

Moldovael/fax: (+ 373/22) 21 09 32; 21.36.32; 22.71.30

E-mail: [email protected]

www.viitorul.org

The Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDSI) Viitorul is a research,education and outreach organization which activates in the field of economic analysis,

governance, law, political sciences, strategic and organizational science. It was set up in

June 1993 in M oldova as a non-governmental, not-for-profit organization, non-political

entity.

The IDSIs mission is to contribute to the growth of independent thinking environment in

Moldova and in other emerging democracies; to contribute to the strengthening of the

local and regional governments; to assist the expansion of the civil society in which thecitizens act together to express their own interests, to exchange information and to strive

for mutual goals and influence government.

IDSI is also a common platform that brings together young intellectuals who are concerned

with the models of transition towards the free market and the open society. IDSI helps

them to contribute with t heir energies, values and virtues, providing its logistic, moral

and intellectual support and advices them regarding their future projects and initiatives.Consistent with this mi ssion, IDSI has forged several linkages between the academic and

policy-making environments, generating policy analysis and recommendations for various

areas of public interest, creating and disseminating of the best practices, good governance

r. i k r r R

M. nr, r r r r m.t k r m x

r r trr rm r grm. o r , m r r. i r m m M m mk m, r r. t

, r m M .

F, M , r mm m

, r r , r r. w r? b, k mk: mr mr trr, r r. or, r r, rr , M r R r

rrr, M m k Mk .

Political situation in Republic of Moldova / April 2008 / Ion Marandici, Sergiu Panainte, Alexandru...

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