Political Defiance in Today’s Russia: Its Successes and Challenges
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![Page 1: Political Defiance in Today’s Russia: Its Successes and Challenges](https://reader035.fdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081602/554ff69db4c905bc138b4c65/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Political Defiance in Today’s Russia: Its Successes and Challenges
Oleg KozlovskyGeorge Washington University
2013-03-26
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Before 2011: Baby Steps• Russian protest movement appeared
around 2004 in reaction to Vladimir Putin’s anti-democratic policies and inspired by Ukraine’s Orange Revolution
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Before 2011: Baby Steps• Russian protest movement appeared
around 2004 in reaction to Vladimir Putin’s anti-democratic policies and inspired by Ukraine’s Orange Revolution
• Movement was marginalized by official media, harassed by regime’s agents, & became “non-systemic opposition” (as opposed to controllable “systemic opposition”)
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Before 2011: Baby Steps• Russian protest movement appeared
around 2004 in reaction to Vladimir Putin’s anti-democratic policies and inspired by Ukraine’s Orange Revolution
• Movement was marginalized by official media, harassed by regime’s agents, & became “non-systemic opposition” (as opposed to controllable “systemic opposition”)
• Despite widespread disappointment in Putin’s rule, few would protest openly
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Before 2011: Baby Steps• Russian protest movement appeared
around 2004 in reaction to Vladimir Putin’s anti-democratic policies and inspired by Ukraine’s Orange Revolution
• Movement was marginalized by official media, harassed by regime’s agents, & became “non-systemic opposition” (as opposed to controllable “systemic opposition”)
• Despite widespread disappointment in Putin’s rule, few would protest openly
• Meanwhile, society was maturing, public attitude toward political activism was quietly changing
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2011: Growing Tensions
• “United Russia, the Party of Crooks and Thieves”
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2011: Growing Tensions
• “United Russia, the Party of Crooks and Thieves”
• September 24: Putin comes back; illusions shattered
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2011: Growing Tensions
• “United Russia, the Party of Crooks and Thieves”
• September 24: Putin comes back; illusions shattered
• Knocked down at a wrestling match
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December-February: The Awakening
• Official Dec. 4 election results: United Russia gets 49% votes, down from 64%
1999 2003 2007 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
United Russia's Results
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December-February: The Awakening
• Official Dec. 4 election results: United Russia gets 49% votes, down from 64%
• Numerous reports of fraud available online
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December-February: The Awakening
• Official Dec. 4 election results: United Russia gets 49% votes, down from 64%
• Numerous reports of fraud available online
• December 5-6: Protests in Moscow; 1100+ arrested in 4 days
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December-February: The Awakening
• Official Dec. 4 election results: United Russia gets 49% votes, down from 64%
• Numerous reports of fraud available online
• December 5-6: Protests in Moscow; 1100+ arrested in 4 days
• December through February: Ever larger protests
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December-February: The Awakening
• Official Dec. 4 election results: United Russia gets 49% votes, down from 64%
• Numerous reports of fraud available online
• December 5-6: Protests in Moscow; 1100+ arrested in 4 days
• December through February: Ever larger protests
• Election observers drive
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The Five Demands
1. Immediate release of political prisoners and the illegally detained
2. Invalidation of results of the falsified elections3. Sacking of [CEC Chief Vladimir] Churov;
investigation of all reports of fraud; punishment for those responsible
4. Liberalization of electoral laws; free registration of opposition parties
5. New free and fair elections
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Regime’s Reaction• First reaction in December 2011:
confusion, denial, small concessions
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Regime’s Reaction• First reaction in December 2011:
confusion, denial, small concessions
• February: Regime regains self-confidence
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Regime’s Reaction• First reaction in December 2011:
confusion, denial, small concessions
• February: Regime regains self-confidence
• March 4: Putin wins in 1st round
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Regime’s Reaction• First reaction in December 2011:
confusion, denial, small concessions
• February: Regime regains self-confidence
• March 4: Putin wins in 1st round• May 6, inauguration eve: Rally
ends in clashes with riot police, mass arrests
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Regime’s Reaction• First reaction in December 2011:
confusion, denial, small concessions
• February: Regime regains self-confidence
• March 4: Putin wins in 1st round• May 6, inauguration eve: Rally
ends in clashes with riot police, mass arrests
• “Bolotnaya Case”: Fear as a weapon
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Regime’s Reaction• First reaction in December 2011:
confusion, denial, small concessions
• February: Regime regains self-confidence
• March 4: Putin wins in 1st round• May 6, inauguration eve: Rally
ends in clashes with riot police, mass arrests
• “Bolotnaya Case”: Fear as a weapon
• New prisoners and refugees
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Regime’s Reaction• First reaction in December 2011:
confusion, denial, small concessions
• February: Regime regains self-confidence
• March 4: Putin wins in 1st round• May 6, inauguration eve: Rally
ends in clashes with riot police, mass arrests
• “Bolotnaya Case”: Fear as a weapon
• New prisoners and refugees• New laws against protests,
NGOs, media, and the Internet
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After May 6: Uniting the Movement
• Opposition Coordinating Council
• Alternative popular elections: October 2012
• Online and offline• Quota-based elections• 45 seats, 209
candidates, 81,325 voters
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New Challenges and Opportunities• Coordinating Council:
developing & following a strategy, preventing infighting, balancing centralization vs. spontaneity
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New Challenges and Opportunities• Coordinating Council:
developing & following a strategy, preventing infighting, balancing centralization vs. spontaneity
• Beyond the capital: experiences in Astrakhan, Gagarin, Khimki
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New Challenges and Opportunities• Coordinating Council:
developing & following a strategy, preventing infighting, balancing centralization vs. spontaneity
• Beyond the capital: experiences in Astrakhan, Gagarin, Khimki
• New tactics: White Circle, auto rallies, White Square, #OccupyAbai, Writers’ Stroll, etc.