IDA18

Policy Research Working Papers on IDA CountriesSorted by IDA 18 Themes

A product of the Developm

ent Research Group

Table of Contents

03 Climate Change

10 Gender Equality

14 Governance, Institution Building, and Fragility

16 Economic Transformation and Jobs

Climate Change

ImpactofclimatechangeandaquaticsalinizationonfishhabitatsandpoorcommunitiesinsouthwestcoastalBangladeshandBangladeshSundarbans

FisheriesconstituteanimportantsourceoflivelihoodsfortensofthousandsofpoorpeopleinthesouthwestcoastalregionofBangladeshlivingneartheUNESCOHeritageSundarbansmangroveforest,andtheysupplyasignificantportionofproteinformillions.AmongthevariousthreatsfisheriesinthesouthwestcoastalregionandSundarbansmangroveforestwillfacebecauseofclimatechange,adverseimpactsfromincreasedaquaticsalinitycausedbysealevelrisehavebeenidentifiedasoneofthegreatestchallenges.Thispaperfocuseson83fishspeciesconsumedbypoorhouseholdsintheregion.Usingthesalinitytolerancerangeforeachspecies,27alternativescenariosofclimatechangein2050wereinvestigatedtoassessthepossibleimpactsofclimatechangeandsealevelriseonaquaticsalinity,fishspecieshabitats,andthepoorcommunitiesthatconsumetheaffectedfishspecies.Theresultsprovidestrikingevidencethatprojectedaquaticsalinizationmayhaveanespeciallynegativeimpactonpoorhouseholdsintheregion.Theestimatesindicatethatareaswithpoorpopulationsthatlosespeciesareaboutsixtimesmoreprevalentthanareasgainingspecies.

CanimprovedbiomasscookstovescontributetoREDD+inlow-incomecountries?evidencefromacontrolledcookingtesttrialwithrandomizedbehavioraltreatments

Thispaperprovidesfieldexperiment–basedevidenceonthepotentialadditionalforestcarbonsequestrationthatcleanerandmorefuel-efficientcookstovesmightgenerate.ThepaperfocusesontheMirt(meaning“best”)cookstove,whichisusedtobakeinjera,thestaplefoodinEthiopia.Theanalysisfindsthatthetechnologygeneratesper-mealfuelsavingsof22to31percentcomparedwithatraditionalthree-stonestovewithlittleornoincreaseincookingtime.Becauseapproximately88percentofharvestsfromEthiopianforestsareunsustainable,thesefindingssuggestthattheMirtstove,andpotentiallyimprovedcookstovesmoregenerally,cancontributetoreducedforestdegradation.ThesesavingsmaybecreditableundertheUnitedNationsCollaborativeProgramonReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradationinDevelopingCountries.BecauseofthehighlyspecificnatureoftheMirtstoveandthelackofrefrigerationinruralEthiopia,reboundeffectsareunlikely,butthisanalysiswasunablecompletelytoruleoutsuchleakage.Theconclusionsarethereforeindicative,pendingevidenceonthefrequencyofMirtstoveuseinthefield.Theeffectsofsixrandomizedbehavioraltreatmentsonfuelwoodandcookingtimeoutcomeswerealsoevaluated,butlimitedeffectswerefound.

CommunitymanagedforestgroupsandpreferencesforREDDcontractattributes:achoiceexperimentsurveyofcommunitiesinNepal:CommunitymanagedforestgroupsandpreferencesforREDD+contractattributes:achoiceexperimentsurveyofcommunitiesinNepal

Asignificantportionoftheworld’sforeststhatareeligibleforReducingEmissionfromDeforestationandForestDegradation,knownasREDD,paymentsarecommunitymanagedforests.However,thereislittleknowledgeaboutpreferencesofhouseholdslivingincommunitymanagedforestsforREDDcontracts,ortheopportunitycostsofacceptingREDDcontractsforthesecommunities.ThispaperusesachoiceexperimentsurveyofruralcommunitiesinNepaltounderstandrespondents’preferencestowardtheinstitutionalstructureofREDDcontracts.Thesampleissplitacrosscommunitieswithcommunitymanagedforestsgroupsandthosewithoutcommunitymanagedforestgroupstoseehowpriorinvolvementincommunitymanagedforestgroupsaffectspreferences.Theresultsshowthatrespondentscareabouthowthepaymentsaredividedbetweenhouseholdsandcommunities,theseverityofrestrictionsonfirewooduse,therestrictionsongrazing,andthefairnessofaccesstocommunitymanagedforestresourcesaswellasthelevelofpayments.ThepreferencesforREDDcontractsareingeneralsimilarbetweencommunitymanagedandnon-communitymanagedforestresourcerespondents,buttherearedifferences,inparticularwithregardtohowbeliefsinfluencethelikelihoodofacceptingthecontracts.Finally,thepaperfindsthattheopportunitycostofREDDpayments,althoughcheaperthanmanyothercarbondioxideabatementoptions,ishigherthanpreviouslysuggestedintheliterature.

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26050362/impact-climate-change-aquatic-salinization-fish-habitats-poor-communities-southwest-coastal-bangladesh-bangladesh-sundarbanshttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/03/26050362/impact-climate-change-aquatic-salinization-fish-habitats-poor-communities-southwest-coastal-bangladesh-bangladesh-sundarbanshttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/08/24916925/can-improved-biomass-cookstoves-contribute-redd-low-income-countries-evidence-controlled-cooking-test-trial-randomized-behavioral-treatmentshttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/08/24916925/can-improved-biomass-cookstoves-contribute-redd-low-income-countries-evidence-controlled-cooking-test-trial-randomized-behavioral-treatmentshttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24683193/community-managed-forest-groups-preferences-redd-contract-attributes-choice-experiment-survey-communities-nepalhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24683193/community-managed-forest-groups-preferences-redd-contract-attributes-choice-experiment-survey-communities-nepalhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24683193/community-managed-forest-groups-preferences-redd-contract-attributes-choice-experiment-survey-communities-nepal

PreferencesforREDD+contractattributesinlow-incomecountries:achoiceexperimentinEthiopia

ThispaperinformsthenationalandinternationalpolicydiscussionsrelatedtotheadoptionoftheUnitedNationsReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradationProgramme.Effectiveprograminstrumentsmustcarefullyconsiderincentives,opportunitycosts,andcommunityinteractions.AchoiceexperimentsurveywasappliedtoruralEthiopiancommunitiestounderstandrespondents’preferencestowardtheinstitutionalstructureoftheprogramcontracts.TheresultsshowthatrespondentshaveparticularpreferencesabouthowReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradationprogramsarestructuredwithregardtothemannerinwhichthepaymentsaredividedbetweenthehouseholdsandthecommunities,therestrictionsonusinggrazingland,andthelevelofpaymentsreceivedfortheprogram.Surprisingly,restrictionsonfirewoodcollectiondonotsignificantlyimpactcontractchoice.Thepaperfurtheranalyzesthestructureofthepreferencesbyusingattributeinteractiontermsandsocio-demographicinteractionterms.Theanalysisfindssignificantregionalvariationinpreferences,indicatingthatReducingEmissionsfromDeforestationandForestDegradationshouldbetailoredtospecificregions.Finally,themarginalwillingnesstopayforattributesiscalculatedusingthetraditionalpreferencespaceapproach,aswellasthemorerecentwillingness-to-payapproach.

TheeconomicviabilityofjatrophabiodieselinNepal

Nepaldependsentirelyonimportsformeetingitsdemandforpetroleumproducts,whichaccountforthelargestshareintotalimportvolume.Dieselisthemainpetroleumproductconsumedinthecountryandaccountsfor38percentofthetotalnationalCO2emissionsfromfuelconsumption.Thereisageneralperceptionthatthecountrywouldeconomicallybenefitifpartofimporteddieselissubstitutedwithdomesticallyproducedjatropha-basedbiodiesel.Thisstudyfindsthattheeconomicsofjatropha-basedbiodieseldependonseveralfactors,suchasdieselprice,yieldofjatrophaseedsperhectare,andavailabilityofmarketsforproductionbyproducts,suchasglycerolandjatrophacake.Underthescenariosconsidered,jatrophabiodieselisunlikelytobeeconomicallycompetitiveinNepalunlessseedyieldsperhectareareimplausiblylargeandhighreturnscanbeobtainedfrombyproductmarketsthatdonotyetexist.Intheabsenceofbyproductmarkets,evenearningsfromacarboncreditdonothelpjatrophabiodieseltocompetewithdieselunlessthecreditvalueexceedsUS$50/tCO2(whichiswellabovecurrentvalues)andjatrophaseedyieldisatorabovethemidrangeofthescenariosconsidered.Declinesindieselpricesfromthelevelsobservedin2009–13onlycompoundtheeconomiccompetitivenessissue.

DrinkingwatersalinityandinfantmortalityincoastalBangladesh

Bangladesh,withtwo-thirdsofitslandarealessthanfivemetersabovesealevel,isoneofthemostclimate-vulnerablecountriesintheworld.Low-lyingcoastaldistrictsalongtheBayofBengalareparticularlyvulnerabletosealevelrise,tidalflooding,stormsurges,andclimate-inducedincreasesinsoilandwatersalinity.ThispaperinvestigatestheimpactofdrinkingwatersalinityoninfantmortalityincoastalBangladesh.Itfocusesonthesalinityofdrinkingwaterconsumedduringpregnancy,whichextensivemedicalresearchhaslinkedtomaternalhypertension,preeclampsia,andpost-partummorbidityandmortality.Thestudycombinesspatially-formattedsalinitymeasuresfor2001-09providedbyBangladeshwithindividualandhouseholdsurveyinformationfromtheBangladeshDemographicandHealthSurveysfor2004and2007.Itusesprobitandlogitanalysestoestimatemortalityprobabilityforinfantslessthantwomonthsold.Controllingformanyotherdeterminantsofinfantmortality,theanalysisfindshighsignificanceforsalinityexposureduringthelastmonthofpregnancyandnosignificanceforexposureduringtheprecedingmonths.Theestimatedimpactofsalinityoninfantmortalityiscomparableinmagnitudetotheestimatedeffectsoftraditionally-citedvariablessuchasmaternalageandeducation,genderofthehouseholdhead,householdwealth,toiletfacilities,drinkingwatersources,andcookingfuels.

Climatechange,soilsalinity,andtheeconomicsofhigh-yieldriceproductionincoastalBangladesh

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24602989/preferences-redd-contract-attributes-low-income-countries-choice-experiment-ethiopiahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24597230/economic-viability-jatropha-biodiesel-nepalhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/02/24046975/drinking-water-salinity-infant-mortality-coastal-bangladeshhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23056341/climate-change-soil-salinity-economics-high-yield-rice-production-coastal-bangladesh

Itisavirtualcertaintythatsea-levelrisewillcontinuethroughoutthecenturyandbeyond2100evenifgreenhousegasemissionsarestabilizedinthenearfuture.Understandingtheeconomicimpactsofsalinityintrusionthusisessentialforplanningadaptationinlow-lyingcoastalareasaroundtheworld.ThispaperpresentsacasestudyinBangladeshonhowclimatechangeleadstothespreadofsoilsalinityandtheimpactonagriculturalproductioninthecoastalregion.Theanalysisisconductedintwostages.Thefirststagepredictsfuturesoilsalinityfor69subdistricts,takingintoaccountclimate-inducedchangesinriversalinity,temperature,andrainfallby2050.Thesecondstageuseseconometricanalysistopredicttheimpactofclimate-inducedincreasesinsoilsalinityontheoutputandpriceofhigh-yielding-varietyrice.Thefindingsindicateoutputdeclinesof15.6percentinninesubdistrictswheresoilsalinitywillexceed4deciSiemenspermeterbefore2050.Withoutnewlydevelopedcopingstrategies,thepredictedchangeswillproducesignificantincomedeclinesfromhigh-yielding-varietyriceproductioninmanyareas,includinga10.5percentlossinBarisalregionanda7.5percentlossinChittagongregion.

Climatechange,groundwatersalinizationandroadmaintenancecostsincoastalBangladesh

Thepotentially-adverseimpactofsalinityonpavedroadsiswell-establishedintheengineeringliterature.Theproblemseemsdestinedtogrow,asclimate-relatedchangesinsealevelandriverineflowsdrivefutureincreasesingroundwatersalinity.However,datascarcityhaspreventedsystematicanalysisforpoorcountries.ThispaperassessestheimpactofgroundwatersalinityonroadmaintenanceexpendituresinthecoastalregionofBangladesh.Theassessmentdrawsonnewpanelmeasuresofsalinityfrom41stationsincoastalBangladesh,androadmaintenanceexpenditures,income,roadnetworklength,androadsurfacesfrom20coastalmunicipalities.Inamodelrelatingmaintenanceexpenditureforpavedroadstogroundwatersalinity,municipalincome,androadnetworklength,largeandsignificanteffectsarefoundforsalinity.Theregressionmodelisusedtopredicttheeffectofwithin-samplesalinityvariationonroadmaintenanceexpenditureshare,holdingmunicipalincomeandroadlengthconstantatsamplemeanvalues.Increasingsalinityfromitssampleminimumtoitssamplemaximumincreasesthepredictedroadmaintenanceexpenditureshareby252percent.Theimpliedwelfareimpactmayalsobesubstantial,particularlyforpoorhouseholds,ifdiversionofexpenditurestoroadmaintenancereducessupportforcommunitysanitation,health,andotherinfrastructurerelatedprograms.

Facingthehungrytide:climatechange,livelihoodthreats,andhouseholdresponsesincoastalBangladesh

ThispaperquantifiestheimpactofinundationriskandsalinizationonthefamilystructureandeconomicwelfareofcoastalhouseholdsinBangladesh.Thesehouseholdsarealreadyonthe"frontline"ofclimatechange,sotheiradaptationpresagesthefutureforhundredsofmillionsoffamiliesworldwidewhowillfacesimilarthreatsby2100.Theanalysisisbasedonahouseholddecisionmodelthatrelatesspatialdeploymentofworking-age,migration-capablememberstoinundationandsalinizationthreats.Theanalysisusesappropriateestimationtechniques,includingadjustmentsforspatialautocorrelation,andfindsthathouseholdssubjecttohighinundationandsalinizationthreatshavesignificantlyhigherout-migrationratesforworking-ageadults(particularlymales),dependencyratios,andpovertyincidencethantheircounterpartsinnon-threatenedareas.Thefindingsindicatethatthecriticalzoneforinundationrisklieswithinfourkilometersofthecoast,withattenuatedimpactsforcoastal-zonehouseholdsathigherelevations.TheresultspaintasoberingpictureoflifeatthecoastalmarginforBangladeshihouseholdsthreatenedbyinundationandsalinization,particularlyhouseholdsthatarerelativelyisolatedfrommarketcenters.Theyrespondby"hollowingout,"aseconomicnecessitydrivesmoreworking-ageadultstoseekoutsideearnings.Thoseleftbehindfaceafargreaterlikelihoodofextremepovertythantheircounterpartsinless-threatenedareas.Thepowerfulresultsformarketaccess,coupledwithpreviousfindingsonsalinityandroadmaintenance,suggestthatinfrastructureinvestmentmayofferapromisingoption.Roadimprovementsthatreducetraveltimesforisolatedsettlementscompensatethemforanincreaseinsalinity.Thus,roadimprovementmaywarrantparticularattentionasanattractiveadaptationinvestmentincoastalBangladesh.

Protectedareasanddeforestation:newresultsfromhighresolutionpaneldata

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23129701/climate-change-groundwater-salinization-road-maintenance-costsbrin-coastal-bangladeshhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/23130405/facing-hungry-tide-climate-change-livelihood-threats-household-responses-coastal-bangladeshhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/11/20353406/protected-areas-deforestation-new-results-high-resolution-panel-data

Thispaperinvestigatestheeffectivenessofprotectedareasinslowingtropicalforestclearingin64countriesinAsia/Pacific,Africa,andLatinAmericafortheperiod2001-2012.Theinvestigationcomparesdeforestationratesinsideandwithin10kilometersoutsidetheboundaryofprotectedareas.Annualtimeseriesofthesedeforestationrateswereconstructedfromrecentlypublishedhigh-resolutiondataonforestclearing.For4,028parks,panelestimationbasedonavarietyofparkcharacteristicswasconductedtotestifdeforestationislowerinprotectedareasbecauseoftheirprotectedstatus,orifotherfactorsexplainthedifference.Forasampleof726parksestablishedsince2002,atestalsowasconductedtoinvestigatetheeffectofparkestablishmentonprotection.Thefindingssuggestparksize,nationalparkstatus,andmanagementbyindigenouspeopleallhavesignificantassociationwitheffectiveprotectionacrossregions.FortheAsia/Pacificregion,thetestofferscompellingevidencethatparkestablishmenthasanear-immediateandpowerfuleffect.

50yearsofurbanizationinAfrica:examiningtheroleofclimatechange

ThispaperdocumentsasignificantimpactofclimatevariationonurbanizationinSub-SaharanAfrica,primarilyinmorearidcountries.Byloweringfarmincomes,reducedmoistureavailabilityencouragesmigrationtonearbycities,whilewetterconditionsslowmigration.Thepaperalsoprovidesevidenceforrural-urbanincomelinks.Incountrieswithalargerindustrialbase,reducedmoistureshrinkstheagriculturalsectorandraisestotalincomesinnearbycities.However,iflocalcitiesareentirelydependentonservicingagriculturesotheirfortunesmovewiththoseofagriculture,reducedmoisturetendstoreducelocalurbanincomes.Finally,thepapershowsthatclimateinducesemploymentchangeswithintheruralsectoritself.Drierconditionsinduceashiftoutoffarmactivities,especiallyforwomen,intonon-farmactivities,andespeciallyoutoftheworkforce.Overall,thesefindingsimplyastronglinkbetweenclimateandurbanizationinAfrica.

Riversalinityandclimatechange:evidencefromcoastalBangladesh

Inachangingclimate,saltwaterintrusionisexpectedtoworseninlow-lyingcoastalareasaroundtheworld.Understandingthephysicalandeconomiceffectsofsalinityingress,andplanningadaptation,arekeytothelong-termdevelopmentofcountriesforwhichsealevelrisehasbeenidentifiedasamajorriskfromclimatechange.ThispaperpresentsastudyconductedinBangladesh,whichquantifiestheprospectiverelationshipbetweenclimate-inducedchangesinsealevel,temperature,rainfall,andalteredriverineflowsfromtheHimalayas,andthespreadandintensityofsalinizationonriverwaterinthecoastalzonefor2050.TheresearchtakesintoaccounttheprojectedlandsubsidenceoftheGangesDelta,aswellasalternativescenariosofupstreamwithdrawaloffreshwater.ThefindingsindicatethatclimatechangewillcausesignificantchangesinriversalinityinthesouthwestcoastalareaofBangladeshby2050.Thesechangesarelikelytoleadtosignificantshortagesofdrinkingwaterinthecoastalurbanareas,scarcityofwaterforirrigationfordry-seasonagriculture,andsignificantchangesinthecoastalaquaticecosystems.Changesintheavailabilityoffreshwaterfishwilllikelyaffectthecompositionofcapturefishery,althoughtheincreaseinbrackishwaterwillenhanceopportunitiesforbrackishwateraquaculture.Assessmentoflocation-specificeconomicimpactsofthechangesinriversalinity,identificationofsuitableadaptationalternatives,andcostingofadaptationarehighprioritiesforfurtheranalysis.

Thebenefitsofsolarhomesystems:ananalysisfromBangladesh

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19679968/50-years-urbanization-africa-examining-role-climate-changehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/03/19299368/river-salinity-climate-change-evidence-coastal-bangladeshhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/11/18640651/benefits-solar-home-systems-analysis-bangladesh

TheGovernmentofBangladesh,withhelpfromtheWorldBankandotherdonors,hasprovidedaidtoalocalagencycalledInfrastructureDevelopmentCompanyLimitedanditspartnerorganizationstodeviseacreditschemeformarketingsolarhomesystemunitsandmakingtheseanaffordablealternativetogridelectricityforpoorpeopleinremoteareas.Thispaperuseshouseholdsurveydatatoexaminethefinancingschemebehindthedisseminationofthesesolarhomesystems,inparticulartheroleofthesubsidy;thefactorsthatdeterminetheadoptionofthesystemsinruralBangladesh;andthewelfareimpactsofsuchadoption.Thepaperfindsthatwhilethesubsidyhasbeendecliningovertime,thedemandforsolarhomesystemshasseenphenomenalgrowth,mostlybecauseoftechnologicaldevelopmentsthathavemadethesystemsincreasinglymoreaffordable.Householdswithbetterphysicalandeducationalendowmentsaremorelikelytoadoptsolarhomesystemsthanpoorhouseholds.Thepriceofthesystemmattersinhouseholddecisionmaking--a10percentdeclineinthepriceofthesystemincreasestheoveralldemandforasolarpanelby2percent.Asforthebenefits,adoptionofasolarhomesystemimproveschildren’seveningstudytime,lowerskeroseneconsumption,andprovideshealthbenefitsforhouseholdmembers,inparticularforwomen.Itisalsofoundtoincreasewomen'sdecision-makingabilityincertainhouseholdaffairs.Finally,itisfoundtoincreasehouseholdconsumptionexpenditure,althoughatasmallscale.

Addressinghouseholdairpollution:acasestudyinruralMadagascar

HouseholdairpollutionisthesecondleadingcauseofdiseaseinMadagascar,wheremorethan99percentofhouseholdsrelyonsolidbiomass,suchascharcoal,wood,andcropwaste,asthemaincookingfuel.OnlyalimitednumberofstudieshavelookedattheemissionsandhealthconsequencesofcookstovesinAfrica.ThispapersummarizesaninitiativetomonitorhouseholdairpollutionintwotownsinMadagascar,withastratifiedsampleof154and184households.ConcentrationsoffineparticulatematterandcarbonmonoxideineachkitchenweremonitoredthreetimesusingUCBParticleMonitorsandGasBadgeProSingleGasMonitors.TheaverageconcentrationsofbothpollutantssignificantlyexceededWorldHealthOrganizationguidelinesforindoorexposure.Afixed-effectpanelregressionanalysiswasconductedtoinvestigatetheeffectsofvariousfactors,includingfuel(charcoal,wood,andethanol),stove(traditionalandimprovedethanol),kitchensize,ventilation,buildingmaterials,andambientenvironment.Judgingbyitseffectonfineparticulatematterandcarbonmonoxide,ethanolissignificantlycleanerthanbiomassfuelsand,forbothpollutants,alargerkitchensignificantlyimprovesthequalityofhouseholdair.Comparedwithtraditionalcharcoalstoves,improvedcharcoalstoveswerefoundtohavenosignificantimpactonairquality,buttheimprovedwoodstovewithachimneywaseffectiveinreducingconcentrationsofcarbonmonoxideinthekitchen,aswasventilation.

ShouldZambiaproducebiodieselfromsoybeans?someinsightsfromanempiricalanalysis

Facingahugefiscalburdenduetoimportsofentirepetroleumdespitetheavailabilityofasurplusofagriculturallandtoproducebiofuels,Zambia,acountryinSub-SaharanAfrica,hasrecentlyintroducedabiofuelmandate.But,anumberofquestions,particularlythoserelatedtotheeconomicsofbiofuels,havenotbeenfullyinvestigatedyet.Usinganempiricalmodelthisstudyanalyzestheeconomicsofmeetingthebiodieselmandatethroughsoybeanfeedstock.Thestudyfindsthatmeetingthebiodieselmandatewithbiodieselfromsoybeanswouldreducesocialwelfarebecausethecountry'ssoybeanimportswouldcostmorethantheexpectedreductioninpetroleumimports.However,ifZambiaincreasesitsdomesticsoybeansupplyalongwithitscapacitytoconvertsoybeantobiodiesel,aswellasoilyield,soybeanbasedbiodieselislikelytobewelfare-beneficial,evenifbiodieselpricesareabovedieselprices.Thestudyalsofindsthatundercurrentmarketpricesandtransportationcostsandconstraints,thesameamountofbiodieselcanbeproducedmostcost-effectivelywithataxexemption.Ablendmandatewouldbelesscosteffective,whileabiodieselproductionsubsidyrepresentstheleastefficientpolicyoption.

Arebiofuelseconomicallycompetitivewiththeirpetroleumcounterparts?productioncostanalysisforZambia

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/09/18369967/addressing-household-air-pollution-case-study-rural-madagascarhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17913854/zambia-produce-biodiesel-soybeans-some-insights-empirical-analysishttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17913855/biofuels-economically-competitive-petroleum-counterparts-production-cost-analysis-zambia

Withincreasedglobalinterestinbiofuels,Zambia,aSub-SaharanAfricancountrythatentirelydependsonimportsforitspetroleumsupply,isplanningtoimplementblendingmandatesforbiofuels.But,alargenumberofissues--includingproductioncostsofbiofuels,landrequirementstomeetthemandates,andenvironmentalbenefits--havenotyetbeenexplored.Thisstudyaimstocontributeinfillingthisgap.Itfindsthatdependingonfeedstocktype,costsofethanolproductionrangefromUS$0.360alitertoUS$0.680aliterwhilethecostsforbiodieselproductionrangefromUS$0.612alitertoUS$0.952aliter.Eveniflowerenergycontentsofbiofuelsaretakenintoaccount,theanalysisshowsthatbiofuelsarecheaperthantheirpetroleumcounterparts.Consideringthecostadvantageofthesebiofuelsoverpetroleumproductsandtheavailabilityofsurplusagriculturalland,Zambiaislikelytobenefitfromthedevelopmentofabiofuelindustry.BiofuelsisexpectedtoreduceZambia'spetroleumimportbill,whichcurrentlystandsatmorethanUS$700million,enhancefoodsecuritybyprovidingincentivestoincreaseyields,andincreaseaffordabilityandaccessibilitytomodernenergyinthecountrywhere77percentofthepopulationstilllacksaccesstomodernenergy.Itcouldalsostimulateruralemploymentanddevelopment.

Macroeconomicanddistributionalimpactsofjatropha-basedbiodieselinMali

Mali,alandlockedWestAfricannationatthesouthernedgeoftheSaharaDesert,hasintroducedaprogramtoproducebiodieselusingjatrophacurcas,anon-edibleshrubwidelyavailablethroughoutthecountrybyfarmersforgenerationsasalivingfencefortheirgardens.Theaimoftheprogramistopartiallysubstitutediesel,whichisentirelysuppliedthroughimports,withdomesticbiodieselproducedfromafeedstockthatdoesnothaveanycommercialvalueotherwiseandthushaszeroopportunitycost.Thispaperusesacomputablegeneralequilibriummodeltoinvestigateeconomy-wideanddistributionalimpactsoflarge-scalejatrophaproductionondifferenttypesoflands,andconversionofjatrophaoiltobiodieselfordomesticconsumption.Itassessesimpactsonagriculturalandothercommoditymarkets,resourceandfactormarkets,andinternationaltrade.Theresultsarefedintoadetailedhouseholdsurvey-basedmicro-simulationmodeltoassessimpactsonpovertyandincomedistribution.Thestudyfindsthattheexpansionofjatrophafarmingwouldbebeneficialintermsofbothmacroeconomicanddistributionalimpactsaslongasidlelands,whichhavebeenneitherusedforagriculturenorprotectedasforests,areutilized.However,ifjatrophaplantationiscarriedoutonexistingagriculturelands,theeconomy-wideimpactswouldbenegativealthoughitwouldstillhelpreduceruralpoverty.

ClimatechangeintheHimalayas:currentstateofknowledge

ThispaperreviewstheliteratureonthepotentialbiophysicalandeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeintheHimalayas.ExistingobservationsindicatethatthetemperatureisrisingatahigherrateinNepalandChineseregionsoftheHimalayascomparedwithrestoftheHimalayas.AdecliningtrendofmonsooninthewesternIndianHimalayasandanincreasingtrendintheeasternIndianHimalayashavebeenobserved,whereasincreasingprecipitationandstreamflowinmanypartsofTibetanPlateauarenoted.GlaciersinboththeeasternandwesternHimalayasaremostlyretreating,butthemajorityoftheglaciersinKarakorumareeitherstableoradvancingslowly.Expansionofglacierlakesisreported,withthehighestrateinNepalandBhutan.Mostliteraturepredictsincreasesintemperatureandmonsoonprecipitationsanddecreasesinwinterprecipitationsinthefuturetherebyleadingtomonsoonfloodingandincreasedsedimentsinstreamflow.Availablehydrologicalsimulationsindicatereducedrainfallandshrinkageofglaciertherebyleadingtoshortageofwatersupplyforpowergenerationandirrigationinwinterparticularlyinhighlyglaciatedbasins.Projectedeconomicimpactsofglaciallakeoutburstfloodscanbesubstantialonthedevelopedriverbasinwithinfrastructuresandpopulationcenters.However,thereisacleargapinknowledgeofeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeintheHimalayas.

A"greenprint"forinternationalcooperationonclimatechange

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17914172/macroeconomic-distributional-impacts-jatropha-based-biodiesel-malihttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/06/17935389/climate-change-himalayas-current-state-knowledgehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/05/17704396/greenprint-international-cooperation-climate-change

Internationalnegotiationsonclimatechangehavebeendoggedbymutualrecriminationsbetweenrichandpoorcountries,constrictedbythezero-sumarithmeticofashrinkingglobalcarbonbudget,andovertakenbyshiftsineconomicpowerbetweenindustrializedanddevelopingcountries.Toovercomethese"narrative,""adding-up,"and"newworld"problems,respectively,thispaperproposesanewGreenprintforcooperation.First,thelargedynamicemergingeconomies--China,India,Brazil,andIndonesia--mustassumethemantleofleadership,offeringcontributionsoftheirownandproddingthereluctantindustrialcountriesintoaction.Thisrolereversalwouldbeconsistentwiththegreaterstakesforthedynamicemergingeconomies.Second,theemphasismustbeontechnologygeneration.Thiswouldallowgreaterconsumptionandproductionpossibilitiesforallcountrieswhilerespectingtheglobalemissionsbudgetthatisdictatedbytheclimatechangegoalofkeepingaveragetemperaturerisebelow2degreescentigrade.Third,insteadoftheoldcash-for-cutsapproach--whichreliesontheindustrialcountriesofferingcash(whichtheydonothave)tothedynamicemergingeconomiesforcuts(thattheyareunwillingtomake)--allmajoremittersmustmakecontributions.Withaviewtogalvanizingatechnologyrevolution,industrialcountrieswouldtakeearlyactiontoraisecarbonprices.Thedynamicemergingeconomieswouldinturneliminatefossilfuelsubsidies,committomatchingcarbonpriceincreasesinthefuture,allowlimitedbordertaxesagainsttheirownexports,andstrengthenprotectionofintellectualpropertyforgreentechnologies.Thiswoulddirectlyandindirectlyfacilitatesuchatechnologicalrevolution.

Gender Equality

Landmarketrestrictions,women'slaborforceparticipation,andwagesinaruraleconomy

Thispaperanalyzestheeffectsoflandmarketrestrictionsontherurallabormarketoutcomesforwomen.Theexistingliteratureemphasizestwomechanismsthroughwhichlandrestrictionscanaffecttheeconomicoutcomes:thecollateralvalueofland,and(in)securityofpropertyrights.Analysisofthispaperfocusesonanalternativemechanismwherelandrestrictionsincreasecostsofmigrationoutofvillages.Thetestablepredictionofcollateraleffectisthatbothwagesandlaborforceparticipationmoveinthesamedirection,andinsecurityofpropertyrightsreduceslaborforceparticipationandincreaseswages.Incontrast,iflandrestrictionsworkprimarilythroughhighermigrationcosts,laborforceparticipationincreases,whilewagesdecline.Foridentification,thispaperexploitsanaturalexperimentinSriLankawherehistoricalmalariaplayedauniqueroleinlandpolicy.Thispaperprovidesrobustevidenceofapositiveeffectoflandrestrictionsonwomen'slaborforceparticipation,butanegativeeffectonfemalewages.Theempiricalresultsthuscontradictacollateralorinsecurepropertyrightseffect,butsupportmigrationcostsastheprimarymechanism.

FormalizingrurallandrightsinWestAfrica:earlyevidencefromarandomizedimpactevaluationinBenin

Thispaperpresentsearlyevidencefromthefirstlarge-scalerandomized-controlledtrialofalandformalizationprogram.ThestudyexaminesthelinksbetweenlanddemarcationandinvestmentinruralBenininlightofamodelofagriculturalproductionunderinsecuretenure.Thedemarcationprocessinvolvedcommunitiesinthemappingandattributionoflandrights;cornerstonesmarkedparcelboundariesandofferedlastinglandmarks.Consistentwiththemodel,improvedtenuresecurityunderdemarcationinducesashifttowardlong-terminvestmentontreatedparcels.Thisinvestmentdoesnotyetcoincidewithgainsinagriculturalproductivity.Theanalysisalsoidentifiessignificantgender-specificeffects.Female-managedlandholdingsintreatedvillagesaremorelikelytobeleftfallow—animportantsoilfertilityinvestment.Womenfurtherrespondtoanexogenoustenuresecuritychangebymovingproductionawayfromrelativelysecure,demarcatedlandandtowardlesssecurelandoutsidethevillagetoguardthoseparcels.

Pronatalpropertyrightsoverlandandfertilityoutcomes:evidencefromanaturalexperimentinEthiopia

ThisstudyexploitsanaturalexperimenttoinvestigatetheimpactoflandreformonthefertilityoutcomesofhouseholdsinruralEthiopia.PublicpoliciesandcustomscreatedasituationwhereEthiopianhouseholdscouldinfluencetheirusufructrightstolandviaademographicexpansionofthefamily.Thestudyevaluatestheimpactoftheabolishmentofthesepronatalpropertyrightsonfertilityoutcomes.Bymatchingaggregatedcensusdatabeforeandafterthereformwithadministrativedataonthereform,adifference-in-differencesapproachbetweenreformandnon-reformdistrictsisusedtoassesstheimpactofthereformonfertilityoutcomes.Theimpactappearstobelarge.Thestudyestimatesthatwomeninruralareasreducedtheirlife-timefertilityby1.2childrenduetothereform.Robustnesschecksshowthattheimpactestimatesarenotbiasedbyspilloversorpolicyendogeneity.

TheimpactofsecondaryschoolinginKenya:aregressiondiscontinuityanalysis

Thispaperestimatestheimpactsofsecondaryschoolonhumancapital,occupationalchoice,andfertilityforyoungadultsinKenya.Theprobabilityofadmissiontogovernmentsecondaryschoolrisessharplyatascoreclosetothenationalmeanonastandardized8thgradeexamination,permittingtheestimationofcausaleffectsofschoolinginaregressiondiscontinuityframework.Theanalysiscombinesadministrativetestscoredatawitharecentsurveyofyoungadultstoestimatetheseimpacts.Theresultsshowthatsecondaryschoolingincreaseshumancapital,asmeasuredbyperformanceoncognitivetestsincludedinthesurvey.Formen,thereisadropintheprobabilityoflow-skillself-employment,aswellassuggestiveevidenceofariseintheprobabilityofformalemployment.Theopportunitytoattendsecondaryschoolalsoreducesteenpregnancyamongwomen.

Womenleftbehind?povertyandheadshipinAfrica

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/12/25713633/land-market-restrictions-womens-labor-force-participation-wages-rural-economyhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25132197/formalizing-rural-land-rights-west-africa-early-evidence-randomized-impact-evaluation-beninhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/09/25080365/pronatal-property-rights-over-land-fertility-outcomes-evidence-natural-experiment-ethiopiahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/08/24879182/impact-secondary-schooling-kenya-regression-discontinuity-analysishttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24688477/women-left-behind-poverty-headship-africa

ThispaperismotivatedbytwostylizedfactsaboutpovertyinAfrica:female-headedhouseholdstendtobepoorer,andpovertyhasbeenfallingintheaggregatesincethe1990s.Thesefactsraisetwoquestions:Howhavefemale-headedhouseholdsfared?AndwhatrolehavetheyplayedinAfrica'simpressiverecentaggregategrowthandpovertyreduction?Usingdatacoveringtheentireregion,thepaperreexaminesthecurrentprevalenceandcharacteristicsoffemale-headedhouseholds,andaskswhethertheirprevalencehasbeenrisingovertime,whatfactorshavebeenassociatedwithsuchchangessincethemid-1990s,andwhetherpovertyhasfallenequi-proportionatelyformale-andfemale-headedhouseholds.Risinggrossdomesticproducthasdampenedrisingfemaleheadship.However,othersubtletransformationsoccurringacrossAfrica—changesinmarriagebehavior,familyformation,health,andeducation—haveputupwardpressureonfemaleheadship,withtheresultthattheshareoffemale-headedhouseholdshasbeengrowing.Thishasbeenhappeningalongsidedecliningaggregatepovertyincidence.However,ratherthanbeingleftbehind,female-headedhouseholdshavegenerallyseenfasterpovertyreduction.Asawhole,thisgrouphascontributedalmostasmuchtothereductioninpovertyasmale-headedhouseholds,despitethesmallershareoffemale-headedhouseholdsinthepopulation.

Smallholders’landownershipandaccessinSub-SaharanAfrica:anewlandscape?

Whilescholarsagreeontheimportanceoflandrentalmarketsforstructuraltransformationinruralareas,evidenceontheextentandnatureoftheiroperation,includingpotentialobstaclestotheirimprovedfunctioning,remainslimited.Thisstudyuseshousehold-leveldatafromsixcountriestostartfillingthisgapandderivesubstantiveaswellasmethodologicallessons.Thepaperfindsthatrentalmarketstransferlandtoland-poor,labor-rich,andmoreproductiveproducersthroughout.Butvastcross-countryvariationintransfersandthefactthatfemalemanagerscouldpossiblyimprovetheirincomebyleasingoutlandpointtowardsbarrierstoparticipationthatpolicymightaddress.Methodologicalandsubstantiveconclusionsarederived.

Investigatingthegendergapinagriculturalproductivity:evidencefromUganda

Womencomprise50percentoftheagriculturallaborforceinSub-SaharanAfrica,butmanageplotsthatarereportedlyonaverage20to30percentlessproductive.Asasourceofincomeinequalityandaggregateproductivityloss,thecountry-specificmagnitudeanddriversofthisgendergapareofgreatinterest.UsingnationaldatafromtheUgandaNationalPanelSurveyfor2009/10and2010/11,thegapbeforecontrollingforendowmentswasestimatedtobe17.5percent.PaneldatamethodswerecombinedwithanOaxacadecompositiontoinvestigatethegenderdifferencesinresourceendowmentandreturntoendowmentdrivingthisgap.Althoughmenhavegreateraccesstoinputs,inputuseissolowandinversereturnstoplotsizesostronginUgandathatsmallerfemale-managedplotshaveanetendowmentadvantageof12percent,revealingalargerunexplainedgapof29.5percent.Two-fifthsofthisunexplainedgapisattributedtodifferentialreturnstothechilddependencyratioandone-fifthtodifferentialreturnstotransportaccess,implyingthatgreaterchildcareresponsibilitiesanddifficultyaccessinginputandoutputmarketsfromareaswithouttransportarethelargestdriversofthegap.Smallerandlessrobustdriversincludedifferentialuptakeofcashcrops,anddifferentialuptakeandreturntoimprovedseedsandpesticides.

Arewomenlessproductivefarmers?howmarketsandriskaffectfertilizeruse,productivity,andmeasuredgendereffectsinUganda

Africangovernmentsandinternationaldevelopmentgroupsseeboostingproductivityonsmallholderfarmsaskeytoreducingruralpovertyandsafeguardingthefoodsecurityoffarmingandnon-farminghouseholds.Promptingsmallholderfarmerstousemorefertilizerhasbeenakeytactic.Closingtheproductivitygapbetweenmaleandfemalefarmershasbeenanotheravenuetowardachievingthesamegoal.Theresultsinthispapersuggestthetwoarerelated.FertilizeruseandmaizeyieldsamongsmallholderfarmersinUgandaareincreasedbyimprovedaccesstomarketsandextensionservices,andreducedbyexanterisk-mitigatingproductiondecisions.Standardordinaryleastsquaresregressionresultsindicatethatgendermattersaswell;however,themeasuredproductivitygapbetweenmaleandfemalefarmersdisappearswhengenderisincludedinalistofdeterminantsmeanttocapturetheindirecteffectsofmarketandextensionaccess.

Behavioraleconomicsandsocialexclusion:caninterventionsovercomeprejudice?

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24578132/smallholders%E2%80%99-land-ownership-access-sub-saharan-africa-new-landscapehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/05/24469240/investigating-gender-gap-agricultural-productivity-evidence-ugandahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24402473/women-less-productive-farmers-markets-risk-affect-fertilizer-use-productivity-measured-gender-effects-ugandahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24402473/women-less-productive-farmers-markets-risk-affect-fertilizer-use-productivity-measured-gender-effects-ugandahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/02/24021122/behavioral-economics-social-exclusion-can-interventions-overcome-prejudice

Behavioraleconomicsrecognizesthatmentalmodels--intuitivesetsofideasabouthowthingswork--canbiasanindividual'sperceptionsofhimselfandtheworld.Byrepresentinganascriptivecategoryofpeopleasunworthy,amentalmodelcanfosterunjustsocialexclusionof,forexample,arace,gender,caste,orclass.Sincetherepresentationisasocialconstruction,shouldn'tsocietybeabletocontrolit?Buthow?Thispaperconsidersthreeinterventionsthathavehadsomesuccessindevelopingcountries:(1)GroupdeliberationinSenegalchallengedthetraditionalmentalmodeloffemalegenitalcuttingandcontributedtotheabandonmentofthepractice;(2)politicalreservationsforwomenandlowcastesinIndiaimprovedthewaymenperceivedwomen,thewayparentsperceivedtheirdaughters,andthewaywomenperceivedthemselves,buthavenotgenerallyhadpositiveeffectsonthelowcastes;and(3)reductionsinthesalienceofidentityclosedperformancegapsbetweendominantandstigmatizedgroupsinexperimentsinIndiaandChina.Spoiledcollectiveidentitiesneedtobechangedormadelessprominentinordertoovercomesocialexclusion.

Thepriceofempowerment:experimentalevidenceonlandtitlinginTanzania

Thispaperreportsonarandomizedfieldexperimentthatusespriceincentivestoaddresseconomicandgenderinequalityinlandtenureformalization.Duringthe1990sand2000s,nearlytwodozenAfricancountriesproposeddejurelandreformsextendingaccesstoformal,freeholdlandtenuretomillionsofpoorhouseholds.Manyofthesereformsstalled.Titledlandremainsthedefactopreserveofwealthyhouseholdsand,withinhouseholds,men.Beginningin2010,thestudytestedwhetherpriceinstrumentsalonecangenerategreaterinclusionbyofferingformaltitlestoresidentsofalow-income,unplannedsettlementinDaresSalaamatarangeofsubsidizedprices,aswellasadditionalpriceincentivestoincludewomenasownersorco-ownersofhouseholdland.Estimatedpriceelasticitiesofdemandconfirmthatprices--ratherthanotherimplementationfailuresorfeaturesofthetitlingregime--areakeyobstacletobroaderinclusioninthelandregistry,andthatsomedegreeofpro-poorpricediscriminationisjustifiedevenfromanarrowbudgetaryperspective.Intermsofgenderinequality,thestudyfindsthatevensmallpriceincentivesforfemaleco-titlingachievealmostcompletegenderparityinlandownershipwithnoreductionindemand

Sonpreference,fertilityandfamilystructure:evidencefromreproductivebehavioramongNigerianwomen

Strongboy-biasanditsconsequencesforyoungandunborngirlshavebeenwidelydocumentedforAsia.ThispaperconsidersacountryinSub-SaharanAfricaandfindsthatparentalgenderpreferencesdoaffectfertilitybehaviorandshapetraditionalsocialinstitutionswithnegativeeffectsonadultwomen'shealthandwell-being.Usingindividual-leveldataforNigeria,thepapershowsthat,comparedtowomenwithfirst-bornsons,womenwithfirst-borndaughtershave(anddesire)morechildrenandarelesslikelytousecontraceptives.Womenwithdaughtersamongearlier-bornchildrenarealsomorelikelytohaveshorterbirthintervals,abehaviormedicallyknowntoincreasetheriskofchildandmaternalmortality.Moreover,theyaremorelikelytoendupinapolygynousunion,tobedivorced,andtobeheadofthehousehold.Thepreferenceforsonsisalsosupportedbychildfosteringpatternsinwhichdaughtersaresubstitutesforfostergirls,whilethesamedoesnotholdforsonsandfosterboys.TheseresultscanpartlyexplainexcessfemalemortalityamongadultwomeninSub-SaharanAfrica.

Strengtheningeconomicrightsandwomen'soccupationalchoice:theimpactofreformingEthiopia'sfamilylaw

Thispaperevaluatestheimpactofstrengtheninglegalrightsonthetypesofeconomicopportunitiesthatarepursued.Ethiopiachangeditsfamilylaw,requiringbothspouses'consentintheadministrationofmaritalproperty,removingtheabilityofaspousetodenypermissionfortheothertoworkoutsidethehome,andraisingwomen'sminimumageofmarriage.Thusbothaccesstoresourcesandtheremovalofrestrictionsonemploymentservedtostrengthenwomen'sbargainingpositionwithinthehouseholdandtheirabilitytopursueeconomicopportunities.Althoughthisreformnowappliesnationally,itwasinitiallyrolledoutinthetwocharteredcitiesandthreeofEthiopia'snineregions.Usingnationallyrepresentativehouseholdsurveysfromjustpriortothereformandfiveyearslaterallowsforadifference-in-differenceestimationofthereform'simpact.Theanalysisfindsthatwomenwererelativelymorelikelytoworkinoccupationsthatrequireworkoutsidethehome,employmoreeducatedworkers,andinpaidandfull-timejobswherethereformhadbeenenacted,controllingfortimeandlocationeffects.Astherelativeincreaseinwomen'sparticipationintheseactivitieswas15-24percenthigherinareaswherethereformwascarriedout,themagnitudeoftheimpactissignificanttoo.

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616394/price-empowerment-experimental-evidence-land-titling-tanzaniahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/05/19536489/son-preference-fertility-family-structure-evidence-reproductive-behavior-among-nigerian-womenhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/11/18491801/strengthening-economic-rights-womens-occupational-choice-impact-reforming-ethiopias-family-law

Foreignwagepremium,genderandeducation:insightsfromVietnamhouseholdsurveys

Thispaperinvestigatesthedifferentialimpactsofforeignownershiponwagesfordifferenttypesofworkers(intermsofeducationalbackgroundandgender)inVietnamusingtheVietnamHouseholdLivingStandardsSurveysof2002and2004.Whereasmostpreviousstudieshavecomparedwagelevelsbetweenforeignanddomesticsectorsusingfirm-leveldata(thusexcludingtheinformalsector),oneadvantageofusingtheLivingStandardsSurveysinthispaperisthatthedataallowwagecomparisonanalysestoextendtotheinformalwagesector.AseriesofMincerianearningsequationsandworker-specificfixedeffectsmodelsareestimated.Severalfindingsemerge.First,foreignfirmspayhigherwagesrelativetotheirdomesticcounterpartsaftercontrollingforworkers’personalcharacteristics.Second,thehighertheindividualworkers'levelsofeducation,thelargeronaveragearethewagepremiumsforthosewhoworkforforeignfirms.Third,longerhoursofworkinforeignfirmjobsrelativetoworkingintheinformalwagesectorareanimportantcomponentofthewagepremium.Finally,unskilledwomenexperiencealargerforeignwagepremiumthanunskilledmen,reflectingthelowearningopportunitiesforwomenandahighergendergapintheinformalwagesector.

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/04/17625228/foreign-wage-premium-gender-education-insights-vietnam-household-surveys

Governance, Institution Building, and Fragility

Theimpactofviolenceonindividualriskpreferences:evidencefromanaturalexperiment

ThisstudyestimatestheimpactofKenya’spost-electionviolenceonindividualriskpreferences.BecausethecrisisinterruptedalongitudinalsurveyofmorethanfivethousandKenyanyouth,thistimingcreatesplausiblyexogenousvariationinexposuretocivilconflictbythetimeofthesurvey.Thestudymeasuresindividualriskpreferencesusinghypotheticallotterychoicequestions,whicharevalidatedbyshowingthattheypredictmigrationandentrepreneurshipinthecross-section.Theresultsindicatethatthepost-electionviolencesharplyincreasedindividualriskaversion.Immediatelyafterthecrisis,thefractionofsubjectswhoareclassifiedaseitherriskneutralorrisklovingdroppedbyroughly26percent.ThefindingsremainrobusttoanIVestimationstrategythatexploitsrandomassignmentofrespondentstowavesofsurveying.

Civilconflictandfirmperformance:evidencefromCoted'Ivoire

Thispaperinvestigatestheimpactofpoliticalinstabilityandcivilconflictonfirms.ItstudiestheunrestinCoted'Ivoirethatbeganin2000,usingacensusofallregisteredfirmsfortheyears1998-2003.Theanalysisusesstructuralestimatesoftheproductionfunctionandexploitsspatialvariationsinconflictintensitytoderivethecostofconflictonfirmsintermsofproductivityloss.Theresultsindicatethattheconflictledtoanaverage16-23percentdropinfirmtotalfactorproductivityandthedeclineis5-10percentagepointslargerforfirmsthatareownedbyoremployingforeigners.Theseresultsareconsistentwithanecdotalevidenceofincreasingviolentattacksandlootingofforeignersandtheirbusinessesduringtheconflict.Theresultssuggestincreasesinoperatingcostsisapossiblechanneldrivingthisimpact.Finally,thepaperinvestigateswhetherfirmsrespondedbyhiringfewerforeignworkersandfindsevidencesupportingthishypothesis

BluewaterandtheconsequencesofalternativefoodsecuritypoliciesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaforwatersecurity

IntheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,foodsecurityandwatersecurityaretightlyentwined.Inparticular,choicesabouttheextenttowhichfoodsecuritypoliciesrelyontraderatherthandomesticallyproducedstapleshavestarkconsequencesfortheregion'slimitedwaterresources.Thispaperbuildsonpreviousmodelingresultscomparingthecostandbenefitsofpoliciestoprotectconsumersagainstsurginginternationalwheatprices,andexpandstheanalysistoconsidertheconsequencesofthepoliciesforwaterresources.Aself-sufficiencypolicyisanalyzedaswell.Resultssuggestthattrade-basedfoodsecuritypolicieshavenosignificanteffectonthesustainabilityofwaterresources,whilethecostsofpoliciesbasedonself-sufficiencyforwaterresourcesarehigh.Theanalysisalsoshowsthatwhileinformationaboutthewaterfootprintofalternativeproductionsystemsishelpful,acorrespondingeconomicfootprintthatfullymeasurestheresourcecostofwaterisneededtoconciselyrankalternativepoliciesineconomictermsthatareconsistentwithsustainableoutcomes.

Elicitingillegalmigrationratesthroughlistrandomization

Mostmigrationsurveysdonotaskaboutthelegalstatusofmigrantsduetoconcernsaboutthesensitivityofthisquestion.Listrandomizationisatechniquethathasbeenusedinanumberofothersocialscienceapplicationstoelicitsensitiveinformation.ThispapertrialsthistechniquebyaddingittosurveysconductedinEthiopia,Mexico,Morocco,andthePhilippines.Itshowshow,inprincipal,thiscanbeusedbothtogiveanestimateoftheoverallrateofillegalmigrationinthepopulationbeingsurveyed,aswellastodetermineillegalmigrationratesforsubgroupssuchasmoreorlesseducatedhouseholds.Theresultssuggestthatthereissomeusefulinformationinthismethod:higherratesofillegalmigrationincountrieswhereillegalmigrationisthoughttobemoreprevalentandhouseholdswhosaytheyhaveamigrantaremorelikelytoreporthavinganillegalmigrant.Nevertheless,someoftheotherfindingsalsosuggestsomepossibleinconsistenciesornoiseintheconclusionsobtainedusingthismethod.Theauthorssuggestdirectionsforfutureattemptstoimplementthisapproachinmigrationsurveys

Promotingdemocracyinfragilestates:insightsfromafieldexperimentinLiberia

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25155020/impact-violence-individual-risk-preferences-evidence-natural-experimenthttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/10/18347991/civil-conflict-firm-performance-evidence-cote-divoirehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/05/17772661/blue-water-consequences-alternative-food-security-policies-middle-east-north-africa-water-securityhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/05/17772661/blue-water-consequences-alternative-food-security-policies-middle-east-north-africa-water-securityhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/04/17644585/eliciting-illegal-migration-rates-through-list-randomizationhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/07/24784483/promoting-democracy-fragile-states-insights-field-experiment-liberia

AfieldexperimentinruralLiberiaisusedtostudydemocraticparticipationinfragilestates.Fragilestatesaremarkedbypoliticalfragmentation,localpatronagesystems,andvotervulnerability.Tounderstandtheeffectsofsuchconditionsondemocraticexpressionthroughelections,theexperimentintroducednewformsofinteractionbetweenruralcitizensandthird-partyactors:(i)civiceducationandtownhallworkshopsdirectedbynon-governmentalorganizationsincommunitiesoverninemonthsand(ii)securitycommitteesthatbroughtruralcommunityrepresentativesintomonthlyexchangewithUnitedNationspeacekeepers.Civiceducationworkshopsincreasedenthusiasmforelectoralparticipation,producedacoordinatedshiftfromparochialtonationalcandidates,andincreasedwillingnesstoreportonmanipulation.Aprogramcombiningthetwointeractionshadsimilareffects.Thesecuritycommitteeshadnegligibleeffects.Barrierstopoliticalinformationandvotercoordinationappeartobeimportantbutresolvableproblemsforelectionsinfragilestates.

Partyageandpartycolor:newresultsonthepoliticaleconomyofredistributionandinequality

Thispaperadvancesresearchoninequalitywithunique,newdataonincomedistributionin61countries,including20LatinAmericancountries,toexploretheeffectsofpoliticalpartiesonredistribution.First,consistentwithacentral--butstillcontested--assumptionofthepoliticaleconomyliterature,left-winggovernmentsredistributemore.Inaddition,consistentwithrecentresearchontheimportanceofpartyorganizationandtheorganizationaldifferencesbetweenyoungerandolderparties,olderleft-wingpartiesaremorelikelytointernalizethelong-runcostsofredistributionandtobemorecredibleintheircommitmenttoredistribution,leadingthemtoredistributeless.Withentirelydifferentdata,thepaperalsoprovidesevidenceonmechanisms:left-winggovernmentsnotonlyredistributemore,theytaxmore;olderleft-wingparties,though,taxlessthanyoungerones.

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/12/20464333/party-age-party-color-new-results-political-economy-redistribution-inequality

Economic Transformation and Jobs

Largefarmestablishment,smallholderproductivity,labormarketparticipation,andresilience:evidencefromEthiopia

Althoughthenatureandmagnitudeof(positiveornegative)spilloversfromlargefarmestablishmentarehotlydebated,mostevidencereliesoncasestudies.Ethiopia'slargefarmscensustogetherwith11yearsofnation-widesmallholdersurveysallowsexaminationandquantificationofspilloversusingintertemporalchangesinsmallholders'proximityandexposuretolargefarms,generallyorgrowingthesamecrop,foridentification.Theresultssuggestpositivespilloversonfertilizerandimprovedseeduse,yields,andriskcoping,butnotlocaljobcreation,forsomecrops,mostnotablymaize.Mostspilloversarecrop-specificandlimitedtolargefarms'immediatevicinity.Theimplicationsforpolicyandresearcharedrawnout.

Dolandmarketrestrictionshinderstructuralchangeinaruraleconomy?evidencefromSriLanka

Thispaperanalyzestheeffectsoflandmarketrestrictionsonstructuralchangefromagriculturetonon-farminaruraleconomy.Thispaperdevelopsatheoreticalmodelthatfocusesonhighermigrationcostsduetorestrictionsonalienability,andidentifiesthepossibilityofareversestructuralchangewheretheshareofnonagriculturalemploymentdeclines.Thereversestructuralchangecanoccurunderplausibleconditions:ifdemandforthenon-agriculturalgoodisincome-inelastic(assumingthenon-farmgoodisnon-tradable),ornon-agricultureislesslaborintensiverelativetoagriculture(assumingthenon-farmgoodistradable).Foridentification,thispaperexploitsanaturalexperimentinSriLankawherehistoricalmalariaplayedauniqueroleinlandpolicy.Theempiricalevidenceindicatessignificantadverseeffectsoflandrestrictionsonmanufacturingandservicesemployment,ruralwages,andpercapitahouseholdconsumption.Theevidenceonthedisaggregatedoccupationalchoicessuggeststhatlandrestrictionsincreasewageemploymentinagriculture,butreduceitinmanufacturingandservices,withnoperceptibleeffectsonself-employmentinnon-agriculture.Theresultsareconsistentwiththemigrationcostsmodel,butcontradicttwowidelydiscussedalternativemechanisms:collateraleffectandpropertyrightsinsecurity.Thispaperalsoprovidesdirectevidenceinfavorofthemigrationcostsmechanism.

Regionalisminservices:astudyofASEAN

Canregionalismdowhatmultilateralismhassofarfailedtodo—promotegreateropennessofservicesmarkets?Althoughpreviousresearchhaspointedtothewideranddeeperlegalcommitmentsunderregionalagreementsasproofthatitcan,nopreviousstudyhasassessedtheimpactofsuchagreementsonappliedpolicies.ThispaperfocusesontheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN),whereregionalintegrationofservicesmarketshasbeenlinkedtothrivingregionalsupplychains.Drawingonsurveysconductedin2008and2012ofappliedpoliciesinthekeyservicessectorsofASEANcountries,thepaperassessestheimpactoftheASEANFrameworkAgreementonServices(AFAS)andtheambitiousASEANEconomicCommunityBlueprint,whichenvisagedintegratedservicesmarketsby2015.Theanalysisfindsthatoverthisperiod,ASEANdidnotintegratefasterinternallythanvis-à-vistherestoftheworld:policiesappliedtotradewithotherASEANcountrieswerevirtuallythesameasthoseappliedtotradewithrestoftheworld.Moreover,therecentcommitmentsscheduledunderAFASdidnotproducesignificantliberalizationand,inafewinstances,servicestradepolicyactuallybecamemorerestrictive.Thetwoexceptionsareinareasthatarenotonthemultilateralnegotiatingagenda:stepshavebeentakentowardcreatingregionalopenskiesinairtransport,andafewmutualrecognitionagreementshavebeennegotiatedinprofessionalservices.Thesefindingssuggestthatregionalnegotiationsaddthemostvaluewhentheyarefocusedonareasthatarenotbeingaddressedmultilaterally.

Quantifyingspillovereffectsfromlargefarmestablishments:thecaseofMozambique

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/02/25964180/large-farm-establishment-smallholder-productivity-labor-market-participation-resilience-evidence-ethiopiahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2016/02/25964180/large-farm-establishment-smallholder-productivity-labor-market-participation-resilience-evidence-ethiopiahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/12/25713612/land-market-restrictions-hinder-structural-change-rural-economy-evidence-sri-lankahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/11/25470521/regionalism-services-study-aseanhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25226394/quantifying-spillover-effects-large-farm-establishments-case-mozambique

Almostadecadeafterlargeland-basedinvestmentforagricultureincreasedsharply,opinionsonitsimpactcontinuetodiverge,partlybecause(positiveornegative)spilloversonneighboringsmallholdershaveneverbeenrigorouslyassessed.ApplyingmethodsfromtheurbanliteratureonMozambicandatasuggeststhatchangesinthenumberandareaoflargefarmswithin25or50kilometersoftheseinvestmentsraiseduseofimprovedpractices,animaltraction,andinputsbysmallfarmerswithoutincreasingcultivatedareaorparticipationinoutput,credit,andnonfarmlabormarkets;or,oncethesefactorsarecontrolledfor,yields.Thelimitedscopeandmodestsizeoftheestimatedbenefitspointtowardconsiderableunrealizedpotential.Thepaperdiscusseswaystosystematicallyexplorethesizeofsuchpotentialandtheextenttowhichitisrealized.

TheimpactofsecondaryschoolinginKenya:aregressiondiscontinuityanalysis

Thispaperestimatestheimpactsofsecondaryschoolonhumancapital,occupationalchoice,andfertilityforyoungadultsinKenya.Theprobabilityofadmissiontogovernmentsecondaryschoolrisessharplyatascoreclosetothenationalmeanonastandardized8thgradeexamination,permittingtheestimationofcausaleffectsofschoolinginaregressiondiscontinuityframework.Theanalysiscombinesadministrativetestscoredatawitharecentsurveyofyoungadultstoestimatetheseimpacts.Theresultsshowthatsecondaryschoolingincreaseshumancapital,asmeasuredbyperformanceoncognitivetestsincludedinthesurvey.Formen,thereisadropintheprobabilityoflow-skillself-employment,aswellassuggestiveevidenceofariseintheprobabilityofformalemployment.Theopportunitytoattendsecondaryschoolalsoreducesteenpregnancyamongwomen.

Goldminingandproto-urbanization:recentevidencefromGhana

Centralplacetheorypredictsthatagglomerationcanarisefromexternalshocks.Thispaperinvestigateswhethergoldminingisacatalystforproto-urbanizationinruralGhana.Usingcross-sectionaldata,theanalysisfindsthatlocationswithin10kilometersfromgoldmineshavemorenightlightandproportionallyhigheremploymentinindustryandservicesandinthewagesector.Non-farmemploymentdecreasesat20–30kilometersdistancetogoldmines.Thesefindingsareconsistentwithagglomerationeffectsthatinducenon-farmactivitiestocoalesceinoneparticularlocation.Thispaperfindsthat,overtime,anincreaseingoldproductionisassociatedwithmorewageemploymentandapprenticeship,andfewerpeopleemployedinprivateinformalenterprises.Italsofindsthatthechangesarisingfromincreasinggoldproductionarenotreversedwhenlargegoldminesshrink.Howeverthispatterncannotbeascribedunambiguouslytoagglomerationeffects,givenanincreaseininformalminingafterformalminesdecreaseoutputisalsoobserved.

HowmuchcouldSouthAsiabenefitfromregionalelectricitycooperationandtrade?

TheSouthAsiaregionislaggingbehindmanyregionsintheworldinregionalelectricitycooperationandtrading,despitethehugeanticipatedbenefits.Thisstudyusesanelectricityplanningmodelthatproducesoptimalexpansionofelectricitygenerationcapacitiesandtransmissioninterconnectionsinthelong-termtoquantifythebenefitsofunrestrictedcross-borderelectricitytradeintheSouthAsiaduring2015–40.ThestudyfindsthattheunrestrictedelectricitytradeprovisionwouldsaveUS$226billion(US$9billionperyear)ofelectricitysupplycostsovertheperiod.Theratioofthepresentvalueofbenefits,intheformofreductionoffuelcosts,tothepresentvalueofincreasedcostsduetogenerationandinterconnectionwouldbe5.3.Theprovisionwouldreduceregionalpowersectorcarbondioxideemissionsby8percent,mainlybecauseofsubstitutionofcoal-basedgenerationwithhydro-basedgeneration,althoughregionalemissionswouldbewellabovecurrentlevelsabsentotherpolicyinterventions.Toachievethesebenefits,theregionisestimatedtoadd95,000megawattsofnewcross-bordertransmissioninterconnectioncapacity.

CropchoiceandinfrastructureaccessibilityinTanzania:subsistencecropsorexportcrops?

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/08/24879182/impact-secondary-schooling-kenya-regression-discontinuity-analysishttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24736278/gold-mining-proto-urbanization-recent-evidence-ghanahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24713153/much-south-asia-benefit-regional-electricity-cooperation-tradehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24637475/crop-choice-infrastructure-accessibility-tanzania-subsistence-crops-or-export-crops

Africahasgreatpotentialforagriculture.Althoughinternationalcommoditypriceshavebeenbuoyant,Africa’ssupplyresponseseemstobeweak.Avarietyofconstraintsmayexist.UsingthecaseofTanzania,thepaperexaminestheimpactofmarketconnectivity,domesticandinternational,onfarmers’cropchoices.Itisshownthattheinternationalmarketconnectivity,measuredbytransportcoststothemaritimeport,isimportantforfarmerstochooseexportcrops,suchascottonandtobacco.Internalconnectivitytothedomesticmarketisalsofoundtobeimportantforgrowingfoodcrops,suchasmaizeandrice.Amongotherinputs,accesstoirrigationandimprovedseedavailabilityarealsoimportantfactorsinthecropchoicesoffarmers.Thesizeoflandareaisoneconstrainttopromotethecropshift.Thepaperalsoreportsthefindingthatfarmersarenotusingmarketpriceseffectivelyintheirchoiceofcrop,evenaftertheendogeneityoflocalpricesistakenintoaccount.

Firms’locationalchoiceandinfrastructuredevelopmentinTanzania:instrumentalvariablespatialautoregressivemodel

Agglomerationeconomiesareamongthemostimportantfactorsinincreasingfirmproductivity.However,thereislittleevidencesupportiveofthisinAfrica.UsingthefirmregistrydatabaseinTanzania,thispaperexaminesanewapplicationofthelogitapproachwithtwoempiricalissuestakenintoaccount:spatialautocorrelationandendogeneityofinfrastructureplacement.Thepaperfindssignificantagglomerationeconomies.Itisalsofoundthatfirmsaremorelikelytobelocatedwherelocalconnectivityandaccesstomarketsaregood.Thepaperfindsthatdealingwithinfrastructureendogeneityandspatialautocorrelationintheempiricalmodelisimportant.Accordingtotheexogeneitytest,infrastructurevariablesarelikelyendogenous.Thespatialautoregressivetermissignificant.Asexpected,therefore,therearepositiveexternalitiesoffirmlocationchoicearoundtheneighboringareas.

Docapitalinflowsboostgrowthindevelopingcountries?evidencefromSub-SaharanAfrica

Thispaperexamineswhetherdomesticoutputgrowthhelpsattractcapitalinflowsand,inturn,capitalinflowshelpboostoutputgrowthinasetof38Sub-SaharanAfricancountries.Usingatwo-stepapproachtoaddressreversecausalityandomittedvariableissues,thepaperfindsthatoutputgrowthincountriesinSub-SaharanAfricadoesnotattractcapitalinflows.However,aidandforeigndirectinvestmentinflowsenhancegrowth,whilesovereigndebtinflowsdonot.A1percentincreaseinthelevelofrealaidinflowsraisesgrowthofrealoutputpercapitaby0.022percentagepoint.Forforeigndirectinvestmentinflows,thefigureis0.002percentagepoint.

Smallholders’landownershipandaccessinSub-SaharanAfrica:anewlandscape?

Whilescholarsagreeontheimportanceoflandrentalmarketsforstructuraltransformationinruralareas,evidenceontheextentandnatureoftheiroperation,includingpotentialobstaclestotheirimprovedfunctioning,remainslimited.Thisstudyuseshousehold-leveldatafromsixcountriestostartfillingthisgapandderivesubstantiveaswellasmethodologicallessons.Thepaperfindsthatrentalmarketstransferlandtoland-poor,labor-rich,andmoreproductiveproducersthroughout.Butvastcross-countryvariationintransfersandthefactthatfemalemanagerscouldpossiblyimprovetheirincomebyleasingoutlandpointtowardsbarrierstoparticipationthatpolicymightaddress.Methodologicalandsubstantiveconclusionsarederived.

Investigatingthegendergapinagriculturalproductivity:evidencefromUganda

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24637459/firms%E2%80%99-locational-choice-infrastructure-development-tanzania-instrumental-variable-spatial-autoregressive-modelhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24637459/firms%E2%80%99-locational-choice-infrastructure-development-tanzania-instrumental-variable-spatial-autoregressive-modelhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24604145/capital-inflows-boost-growth-developing-countries-evidence-sub-saharan-africahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/06/24578132/smallholders%E2%80%99-land-ownership-access-sub-saharan-africa-new-landscapehttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/05/24469240/investigating-gender-gap-agricultural-productivity-evidence-uganda

Womencomprise50percentoftheagriculturallaborforceinSub-SaharanAfrica,butmanageplotsthatarereportedlyonaverage20to30percentlessproductive.Asasourceofincomeinequalityandaggregateproductivityloss,thecountry-specificmagnitudeanddriversofthisgendergapareofgreatinterest.UsingnationaldatafromtheUgandaNationalPanelSurveyfor2009/10and2010/11,thegapbeforecontrollingforendowmentswasestimatedtobe17.5percent.PaneldatamethodswerecombinedwithanOaxacadecompositiontoinvestigatethegenderdifferencesinresourceendowmentandreturntoendowmentdrivingthisgap.Althoughmenhavegreateraccesstoinputs,inputuseissolowandinversereturnstoplotsizesostronginUgandathatsmallerfemale-managedplotshaveanetendowmentadvantageof12percent,revealingalargerunexplainedgapof29.5percent.Two-fifthsofthisunexplainedgapisattributedtodifferentialreturnstothechilddependencyratioandone-fifthtodifferentialreturnstotransportaccess,implyingthatgreaterchildcareresponsibilitiesanddifficultyaccessinginputandoutputmarketsfromareaswithouttransportarethelargestdriversofthegap.Smallerandlessrobustdriversincludedifferentialuptakeofcashcrops,anddifferentialuptakeandreturntoimprovedseedsandpesticides.

Arewomenlessproductivefarmers?howmarketsandriskaffectfertilizeruse,productivity,andmeasuredgendereffectsinUganda

Africangovernmentsandinternationaldevelopmentgroupsseeboostingproductivityonsmallholderfarmsaskeytoreducingruralpovertyandsafeguardingthefoodsecurityoffarmingandnon-farminghouseholds.Promptingsmallholderfarmerstousemorefertilizerhasbeenakeytactic.Closingtheproductivitygapbetweenmaleandfemalefarmershasbeenanotheravenuetowardachievingthesamegoal.Theresultsinthispapersuggestthetwoarerelated.FertilizeruseandmaizeyieldsamongsmallholderfarmersinUgandaareincreasedbyimprovedaccesstomarketsandextensionservices,andreducedbyexanterisk-mitigatingproductiondecisions.Standardordinaryleastsquaresregressionresultsindicatethatgendermattersaswell;however,themeasuredproductivitygapbetweenmaleandfemalefarmersdisappearswhengenderisincludedinalistofdeterminantsmeanttocapturetheindirecteffectsofmarketandextensionaccess.

TheriseofChinaandlabormarketadjustmentsinLatinAmerica

ThispaperassessestheimpactoftheriseofChinaonthetradeofLatinAmericanandCaribbeaneconomies.Thestudyproposesanindextomeasuretheimpactontrade,whichsuggestssizableeffects,especiallyinArgentina,Brazil,Chile,Honduras,Mexico,andParaguay.Thepaperusestheindexandamodeloflabormobility,tocalculatetheimpactofChina'sgrowthonlabormarketsinArgentina,Brazil,andMexico.TheresultingevidencesuggeststhattheriseofChinahashadpositiveeffectsonagricultureandmininginArgentinaandBrazil,whichoffsetnegativeimpactsonmanufacturingindustries,thusleavingtotalemploymentandrealwagesvirtuallyunchangedinthelongrun.Incontrast,theestimatedimpactsofChina'sriseonMexicoimplythatthesizableshocktomanufacturingwasnotoffsetbythepositiveshocksonminingandagriculture,reducingemploymentinthelongrun.ThepaperalsodiscussestheeffectofChinaonthedegreeofinformalityinthesethreeeconomiesandcontrastsshort-runandlong-runeffectsonemploymentandwagesacrossindustries.

Firmheterogeneityandcostlytrade:anewestimationstrategyandpolicyexperiments

Thispaperbuildsatractablepartialequilibriummodeltohelpexplaintheroleoftradepreferencesgiventodevelopingcountries,aswellastheefficacyofvarioussubsidypolicies.Themodelallowsforfirmlevelheterogeneityindemandandproductivityandletsthemassoffirmsthatenterbeendogenous.Tradepreferencesgivenbyonecountryhavepositivespilloversonexportstoothersinthismodel.PreferencesgivenbytheEuropeanUniontoBangladeshinanindustryraiseprofits,resultinginentry,andsomeofthesefirmsalsoexporttotheUnitedStates.TheparametersofthemodelareestimatedusingcrosssectionalcustomsdataonBangladeshiexportsofappareltotheUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnion.Counterfactualexperimentsregardingtheeffectsofreducingcosts,bothfixedandmarginal,oroftradepreferencesofferedbyanimportingcountryareperformed.Thecounterfactualsshowthatreducingfixedcostsatvariouslevelshasverydifferenteffectsandsuggestthatsuchreductionsaremoreeffectiveinpromotingexportswhenappliedatlaterstageswhenfirmsaremorecommittedtoproduction.Asubsidyof1.5milliondollarstoindustryentrycostsraisesexportsbyonly0.4dollarsforeverydollarspent,butwhenappliedtofixedcostsofproduction,itraisesexportsby$25perdollarspent.

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24402473/women-less-productive-farmers-markets-risk-affect-fertilizer-use-productivity-measured-gender-effects-ugandahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24402473/women-less-productive-farmers-markets-risk-affect-fertilizer-use-productivity-measured-gender-effects-ugandahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23173043/rise-china-labor-market-adjustments-latin-americahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23173044/firm-heterogeneity-costly-trade-new-estimation-strategy-policy-experiments

Short-termimpactsofformalizationassistanceandabankinformationsessiononbusinessregistrationandaccesstofinanceinMalawi

Despiteregulatoryeffortsdesignedtomakeiteasierforfirmstoformalize,informalityremainsextremelyhighamongfirmsinSub-SaharanAfrica.Inmostoftheregion,businessregistrationinanationalregistryisseparatefromtaxregistration.ThispaperprovidesinitialresultsfromanexperimentinMalawithatrandomlyallocatedfirmsintoacontrolgroupandthreetreatmentgroups:a)agroupofferedassistanceforcostlessbusinessregistration;b)agroupofferedassistancewithcostlessbusinessregistrationand(separate)taxregistration;andc)agroupofferedassistanceforcostlessbusinessregistrationalongwithaninformationsessionatabankthatendedwiththeofferofbusinessbankaccounts.Thestudyfindsthatallthreetreatmentshadextremelylargeimpactsonbusinessregistration,with75percentofthoseofferedassistancereceivingabusinessregistrationcertificate.Thefindingsofferacost-effectivewayofgettingfirmstoformalizeinthisdimension.However,incommonwithotherstudies,informationandassistancehasalimitedimpactontaxregistration.Thepapermeasurestheshort-termimpactsofformalizationonfinancialaccessandusage.Businessregistrationalonehasnoimpactforeithermenorwomenonbankaccountusage,savings,orcredit.However,thecombinationofformalizationassistanceandthebankinformationsessionresultsinsignificantimpactsonhavingabusinessbankaccount,financialpractices,savings,anduseofcomplementaryfinancialproducts.

Agriculturalproductivity,hiredlabor,wagesandpoverty:evidencefromBangladesh

Thispaperprovidesevidenceontheeffectsofagriculturalproductivityonwagerates,laborsupplytomarketorientedactivities,andlaborallocationbetweenownfarmingandwagelaborinagriculture.Toguidetheempiricalwork,thispaperdevelopsageneralequilibriummodelthatunderscorestheroleofreallocationoffamilylaborengagedintheproductionofnon-marketedservicesathome(`homeproduction').Themodelpredictspositiveeffectsofafavorableagriculturalproductivityshockonwagesandincome,buttheeffectonhiredlaborisambiguous;itdependsonthestrengthofreallocationoflaborfromhometomarketproductionbylaborsurplusanddeficithouseholds.Takingrainfallvariationsasameasureofshocktoagriculturalproductivity,andusingsubdistrictlevelpaneldatafromBangladesh,thispaperfindssignificantpositiveeffectsofafavorablerainfallshockonagriculturalwages,laborsupplytomarketwork,andpercapitahouseholdexpenditure.Theshareofhiredlaborincontrastdeclinessubstantiallyinresponsetoafavorableproductivityshock,whichisconsistentwithacasewherelabor-deficithouseholdsrespondmorethanthelabor-surplusonesinreallocatinglaborfromhomeproduction.

Radiofrequency(un)identification:resultsfromaproof-of-concepttrialoftheuseofRFIDtechnologytomeasuremicroenterpriseturnoverinSriLanka

Accuratemeasurementofstocklevels,turnover,andprofitabilityinmicroenterprisesindevelopingcountriesisdifficultbecausethemajorityofthesefirmsdonotkeepdetailedrecords.ThispaperteststheuseofradiofrequencyidentificationtagsasameansofobjectivelymeasuringstocklevelsandstockflowinsmallretailfirmsinSriLanka.Inprinciple,thetagsofferthepotentialtotrackstockmovementsaccurately.ThepapercomparesthestockcountsobtainedfromRFIDreadstophysicalstockcountsandtosurveyresponses.Therearethreemainfindings.First,currentRFID-technologyismoredifficulttouse,andmoretime-consumingtoemploy,thanhadbeenenvisaged.Second,thetechnologyworksreasonablywellforpaperproducts,butverypoorlyformostproductssoldbymicroenterprises:onaverageonlyaboutone-quarteroftheproductstaggedcouldbereadandtherewasconsiderableday-to-dayvariationinread-efficiency.Third,acomparisonofsurveyresponsesandphysicalstock-takesshowsmuchhigheraccuracyforsurveymeasures.Asaresult,thestudyconcludesthatthistechnologyiscurrentlyunsuitableforimprovingstockmeasurementinmicroenterprises,exceptperhapsforafewproducts.

SMEfinanceinAfrica

Thispaperusescross-countryfirm-levelsurveystogaugeaccesstofinancialservicesandtheimportanceoffinancingconstraintsforAfricanenterprises.ThepapercomparesaccesstofinanceinAfricaandotherdevelopingregionsoftheworld,withinAfricaacrosscountries,andacrossdifferentgroupsoffirms.Itrelatesfirms'accesstofinancetofirmandbankingsystemcharacteristicsanddiscussespolicychallenges.

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23922000/short-term-impacts-formalization-assistance-bank-information-session-business-registration-access-finance-malawihttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/01/23922000/short-term-impacts-formalization-assistance-bank-information-session-business-registration-access-finance-malawihttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/10/20270087/agricultural-productivity-hired-labor-wages-poverty-evidence-bangladeshhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/10/20299285/radio-frequency-unidentification-results-proof-of-concept-trial-use-rfid-technology-measure-microenterprise-turnover-sri-lankahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/10/20299285/radio-frequency-unidentification-results-proof-of-concept-trial-use-rfid-technology-measure-microenterprise-turnover-sri-lankahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20166415/sme-finance-africa

Benchmarkingthefinancialperformance,growth,andoutreachofgreenfieldmicrofinanceinstitutionsinSub-SaharanAfrica

InrecentyearstherehasbeenarapidincreaseinthepresenceandgrowthofgreenfieldmicrofinanceinstitutionsinSub-SaharanAfrica.ThispaperusesregressionstobenchmarkthoseAfricangreenfieldsrelativetoothermicrofinanceprovidersandfindsthatgreenfieldsgrewfasterintermsofdepositsandlending,improvedtheirprofitabilitytolevelscomparabletothetopmicrofinanceinstitutions,andsubstantiallyincreasedtheirlendingtowomen.Theeffectswereespeciallystrongforgreenfieldsthatfollowedaconsultant-ledmodeltoestablishadeepretailbankingpresencespanningmultiplecountries,includingthecreationofextensivebranchnetworks.AlthoughtheirloansizesaresomewhatlargerthanthoseofmostAfricanmicrofinanceinstitutions,indicatinglessoutreachtothepoorestmarketsegments,greenfieldshaveachievedrapidgainsinfinancialinclusiononabroadscale.

Seeingisbelieving?evidencefromanextensionnetworkexperiment

Extensionservicesareakeystoneofinformationdiffusioninagriculture.ThispaperexploitsalargerandomizedcontrolledtrialtotrackdiffusionofanewtechniqueintheclassicTrainingandVisit(T&V)extensionmodel,relativetoamoredirecttrainingmodel.Inbothcontrolandtreatmentcommunities,contactfarmers(CFs)serveaspoints-of-contactsbetweenagentsandotherfarmers.Theintervention(Treatment)aimstoaddresstwopitfallsoftheT&Vmodel:i)infrequentextensionagentvisits,andii)poorqualityinformation.TreatmentCFsreceiveadirect,centralizedtraining.ControlcommunitiesareexposedtotheclassicT&Vmodel.Informationdiffusionwastrackedthroughtwonodes:fromagentstoCFs,andfromCFstoothers.DirectlytrainingCFsleadstolargegainsininformationdiffusionandadoption,andCFslearnbydoing.Diffusiontoothersislimited:othermalesadoptthetechniqueperceivedaslaborsaving,withaneffectsizeof75percent.

OpenskiesovertheMiddleEast

ThedynamismofairtrafficmarketsintheMiddleEastobscuresthepersistenceofrestrictionsoninternationalcompetition.Buthowimportantaresuchrestrictionsforpassengertraffic?Thispaperusesdetaileddataonworldwidepassengeraviationtoestimatetheeffectofairtransportpolicyoninternationalairtraffic.Thepolicyvariableisaquantitativemeasureofthecommitmentsunderinternationalagreements.Thepaperanalyzes,forthefirsttime,notonlybilateralagreements,butalsoplurilateralagreementssuchastheonebetweenArabstates.Theanalysisfindsthatmoreliberalpolicyisassociatedwithgreaterpassengertrafficbetweencountries.Highertrafficlevelsappeartobedrivenprimarilybylargernumbersofcitypairsbeingserved,ratherthanbymorepassengerstravelingalonggivenroutes.Todemonstratethequantitativeimplicationoftheestimates,twoliberalizationscenariosintheMiddleEastareevaluated.DeepeningtheplurilateralagreementamongArabstateswouldleadtoa30percentincreaseinintraregionalpassengertraffic.WideningtheagreementtoincludeTurkeywouldgeneratesignificantlylargergainsbecausecurrentpolicyvis-à-visTurkeyismuchmorerestrictive

Doesinstitutionalfinancematterforagriculture?evidenceusingpaneldatafromUganda

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20205158/benchmarking-financial-performance-growth-outreach-greenfield-microfinance-institutions-sub-saharan-africahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/09/20205158/benchmarking-financial-performance-growth-outreach-greenfield-microfinance-institutions-sub-saharan-africahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/08/20028274/seeing-believing-evidence-extension-network-experimenthttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19705719/open-skies-over-middle-easthttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19705737/institutional-finance-matter-agriculture-evidence-using-panel-data-uganda

Smallholderagricultureinmanydevelopingcountrieshasremainedlargelyself-financed.However,improvedproductivityforattaininggreaterfoodsecurityrequiresbetteraccesstoinstitutionalcredit.Pasteffortstoextendinstitutionalcredittosmallerfarmershasfailedforseveralreasons,includingsubsidizedoperationofgovernment-aidedcreditschemes.Thus,recenteffortstoexpandcreditforsmallholderagriculturethatrelyoninnovativecreditdeliveryschemesatmarketpriceshavereceivedmuchpolicyinterest.However,thusfartheimpactsoftheseeffortsarenotfullyunderstood.ThisstudyexaminescreditforsmallholderagricultureinthecontextofUganda,whereagricultureisabout35percentofgrossdomesticproduct,mostfarmersaresmallholders,andthecountryhasintroducedpoliciessince2005toextendcreditaccesstothesector.TheanalysisusesnewlyavailablehouseholdpaneldatafromUgandafor2005-2006and2009-2010toexamine(a)whethercrediteffectivelytargetsagriculture,byexaminingdeterminantsofborrowingacrossdifferentsources;(b)agriculturalandnonagriculturaldeterminantsofsupplyanddemandcreditconstraintsamongnon-borrowers;and(c)theeffectsofborrowingandcreditconstraintsonhouseholdincome,consumption,andagriculturaloutcomes.Theanalysisfindsthatalthoughnotmanyhouseholdsreportborrowingspecificallyforagriculture,creditisfungibleandagriculturaloutcomesdosubstantiallyimprovewithinstitutionalborrowing,particularlymicrocredit.Amongnon-borrowers,supplyanddemandcreditconstraintshavefallenconsiderablyovertheperiod,particularlyinruralareas.Accesstoinstitutionsandinfrastructureplayastrongroleinalleviatingthenegativeeffectofcreditconstraintsonwelfareoutcomes,aswellasdeterminingthesourceoflendingamongborrowinghouseholds.

Moneyorideas?afieldexperimentonconstraintstoentrepreneurshipinruralPakistan

Thispaperidentifiestherelativeimportanceofhumanandphysicalcapitalforentrepreneurship.AsubsetofruralmicrofinanceclientswereofferedeightfulltimedaysofbusinesstrainingandtheopportunitytoparticipateinaloanlotteryofuptoRs.100,000(USD1,700),aboutseventimestheaverageloansize.Thestudyfindsthatbusinesstrainingincreasedbusinessknowledge,reducedbusinessfailure,improvedbusinesspracticesandincreasedhouseholdexpendituresbyabout$40peryear.Italsoimprovedfinancialandlaborallocationdecisions.Theseeffectsareconcentratedamongmaleclients,however.Womenimprovebusinessknowledgebutshownoimprovementsinotheroutcomes.Acost-benefitanalysissuggeststhatbusinesstrainingwasnotcost-effectiveforthemicrofinanceinstitution,despitehavingapositiveimpactonclients.Thismayexplainwhysofewmicrofinanceinstitutionsoffertraining.Accesstothelargerloan,incontrast,hadlittleeffect,indicatingthatexistingloansizelimitsmayalreadymeetthedemandforcreditfortheseclients.

Whydon'tpoorcountriesdoR&D?

Usingaglobalpanelonresearchanddevelopment(R&D)expenditures,thispaperdocumentsthatonaveragepoorcountriesdofarlessR&DthanrichasashareofGDP.ThisisarguablycounterintuitivesincethegainsfromdoingtheR&DrequiredfortechnologicalcatchuparethoughttobeveryhighandGriffithetal(2004)havedocumentedthatintheOECDreturnsincreasedramaticallywithdistancefromthefrontier.ExploitingrecentadvancesininstrumentalvariablesinavaryingcoefficientcontextwefindthattheratesofreturnfollowaninvertedU:theyrisewithdistancetothefrontierandthenfallthereafter,potentiallyturningnegativeforthepoorestcountries.ThefindingsareconsistentwiththeimportanceoffactorscomplementarytoR&D,suchaseducation,thequalityofscientificinfrastructureandtheoverallfunctioningofthenationalinnovationsystem,andthequalityoftheprivatesector,whichbecomeincreasinglyweakwithdistancefromthefrontierandtheabsenceofwhichcanoffsetthecatchupeffect.China'sandIndia'sexplosivegrowthinR&Dinvestmenttrajectoriesinspiteofexpectedlowreturnsmaybejustifiedbytheirimportingthecomplementaryfactorsintheformofmultinationalcorporationswhodomostofthepatentableresearch

Engineers,InnovativeCapacityandDevelopmentintheAmericas

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19749952/money-or-ideas-field-experiment-constraints-entrepreneurship-rural-pakistanhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/03/19266897/dont-poor-countries-rdhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/03/19292695/engineers-innovative-capacity-development-americas

Thispaperoffersthefirstevidenceontheprevalenceofacentralactorinmoderngrowththeory—theengineer.Usingnewlycollectedsub-national,andinternationaldataaswellashistoricalcasestudies,itthenarguesthatdifferencesininnovativecapacity,capturedbythedensityofengineersandpatentsatthedawnoftheSecondIndustrialRevolution,infact,areimportanttoexplainingpresentincomedifferencesacrossUScounties,stateswithincountries,andbetweentheUSandLatinAmerica.Thisremainsthecaseaftercontrollingforliteracy,otherhigherorderhumancapital,anddemandsideelementsthatmightbeconfoundedwithengineeringorpatenting.InstrumentingengineeringusingtheLandGrantCollegesprogramfurtherlimitsremainingendogeneity.A1SDincreaseinengineersattheturnofthe20thcenturyaccountsfora16percentincreaseinUScountyincometoday,andpatentingcapacitycontributesanother10percent.Thiscanpartlyexplainwhycountrieswithsimilarlevelsofincomein1900,buttenfolddifferencesinengineeringdensitydivergedintheirgrowthtrajectoriesoverthenextcentury.

Creditconstraints,agriculturalproductivity,andruralnonfarmparticipation:evidencefromRwanda

Althoughthepotentiallynegativeimpactsofcreditconstraintsoneconomicdevelopmenthavelongbeendiscussedconceptually,empiricalevidenceforAfricaremainslimited.ThisstudyusesadirectelicitationapproachforanationalsampleofRwandanruralhouseholdstoassessempiricallytheextentandnatureofcreditrationinginthesemi-formalsectoranditsimpactusinganendogenoussampleseparationbetweencredit-constrainedandunconstrainedhouseholds.Beingcreditconstrainedreducesthelikelihoodofparticipatinginoff-farmself-employmentactivitiesbyabout6.3percentwhilemakingparticipationinlow-returnfarmwagelabormorelikely.Evenwithinagriculture,eliminationofalltypesofcreditconstraintsinthesemi-formalsectorcouldincreaseoutputbysome17percent.Twosuggestionsforpolicyemergefromthefindings.First,theestimatessuggestthataccesstoinformation(education,listeningtotheradio,andmembershipinafarmcooperative)hasamajorimpactonreducingtheincidenceofcreditconstraintsinthesemi-formalcreditsector.Expandingaccesstoinformationinruralareasthusseemstobeoneofthemostpromisingstrategiestoimprovecreditaccessintheshortterm.Second,makingiteasytoidentifylandownersandtransferlandcouldalsosignificantlyreducetransactioncostsassociatedwithcreditaccess.

Isthereafarm-sizeproductivityrelationshipinAfricanagriculture?evidencefromRwanda

WhetherthenegativerelationshipbetweenfarmsizeandproductivitythatisconfirmedinalargegloballiteratureholdsinAfricaisofconsiderablepolicyrelevance.ThispaperrevisitsthisissueandexaminespotentialcausesoftheinverseproductivityrelationshipinRwanda,wherepolicymakersconsiderlandfragmentationandsmallfarmsizestobekeybottlenecksforthegrowthoftheagriculturalsector.Nationwideplot-leveldatafromRwandapointtowardaconstantreturnstoscalecropproductionfunctionandastrongnegativerelationshipbetweenfarmsizeandoutputperhectareaswellasintensityoflaborusethatisrobustacrossspecifications.Theinverserelationshipcontinuestoholdifprofitswithfamilylaborvaluedatshadowwagesareused,butdisappearsiffamilylaborisrathervaluedatvillage-levelmarketwagerates.Thesefindingsimplythat,inRwanda,labormarketimperfections,ratherthanotherunobservedfactors,seemtobeakeyreasonfortheinversefarm-sizeproductivityrelationship.

Riskybusiness:politicalinstabilityandgreenfieldforeigndirectinvestmentintheArabworld

Whichforeigndirectinvestmentsaremostaffectedbypoliticalinstability?AnalysisofquarterlygreenfieldinvestmentflowsintocountriesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfricafrom2003to2012showsthatadversepoliticalshocksareassociatedwithsignificantlyreducedinvestmentinflowsinthenon-resourcetradablesectors.Bycontrast,investmentsinnaturalresourcesectorsandnon-tradableactivitiesappearinsensitivetosuchshocks.Consistentwiththesepatterns,thesignificantreductionininvestmentinflowsinArabSpringaffectedeconomieswasstarkestinthenon-resourcemanufacturingsector.Politicalinstabilityisthusassociatedwithincreasedrelianceonnon-tradablesandaggravatedresourcedependence.Conversely,howintensifiedpoliticalinstabilityaffectsaggregateforeigndirectinvestmentiscriticallycontingentontheinitialsectorcompositionoftheseflows.

BankinginAfrica

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/02/18910977/credit-constraints-agricultural-productivity-rural-nonfarm-participation-evidence-rwandahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/02/18910978/farm-size-productivity-relationship-african-griculture-evidence-rwandahttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/12/18621884/risky-business-political-instability-greenfield-foreign-direct-investment-arab-worldhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2013/10/18464500/banking-africa

ThispapertakesstockofthecurrentstateofbankingsystemsacrossSub-SaharanAfricaanddiscussesrecentdevelopmentsincludinginnovationsthatmighthelpAfricaleapfrogmoretraditionalbankingmodels.Usinganarrayofdifferentdata,thepaperdocumentsthatAfricanbankingsystemsareshallowbutstable.Africanbanksarewellcapitalizedandover-liquid,butlendlesstotheprivatesectorthanbanksinnon-Africandevelopingcountries.Africanenterprisesandhouseholdsarelesslikelytousefinancialservicesthantheirpeersinotherdevelopingcountries.Thepaperalsodescribesanumberoffinancialinnovationsacrossthecontinentthatcanhelpovercomedifferentbarrierstofinancialinclusionandhavehelpedtoexpandthebankableandthebankedpopulation.

AconceptualmodelofincompletemarketsandtheconsequencesfortechnologyadoptionpoliciesinEthiopia

InAfrica,farmershavebeenreluctanttotakeupnewvarietiesofstaplecropsdevelopedtoboostsmallholderyieldsandruralincomes.Lowfertilizeruseisoftenmentionedasaproximatecause,butsomebelievetheproblemoriginateswithincompleteinputmarkets.Asaremedy,Africangovernmentshaveintroducedtechnologyadoptionprogramswithfertilizersubsidiesasacorecomponent.Still,thelinksbetweenmarketperformanceandchoicesaboutusingfertilizerarepoorlyarticulatedinempiricalstudiesandpolicydiscussions,makingitdifficulttojudgewhethertheprogramsareexpectedtogeneratelastingbenefitsortosimplyoffsethighfertilizerprices.Thispaperdevelopsaconceptualmodeltoshowhowchoicesmadebyagentssupplyinginputservicescombinewithhouseholdlivelihoodsettingstogenerateheterogeneousdecisionsaboutfertilizeruse.AnappliedmodelisestimatedwithdatafromapanelsurveyinruralEthiopia.Theresultssuggestthatadversemarketconditionslimittheadoptionoffertilizer-basedtechnologies,especiallyamongresource-poorhouseholds.Farmersappeartorespondtomarketsignalsintheaggregateandthisprovidesapathwayforsubsidiestostimulatedemand.However,theresearchsuggeststhatloweringtransactioncosts,throughinvestmentsininfrastructureandmarketinstitutions,cangeneratedeepereffectsbyexpandingthetechnologiesavailabletofarmersacrossallpricingoutcomes.

Understandingthesourcesofspatialdisparityandconvergence:evidencefromBangladesh

ThispaperutilizesthemixedeffectsmodeltomeasureanddecomposespatialdisparityinpercapitaexpenditureinBangladeshbetween2000and2010.Itfindsasignificantdeclineinspatialdisparityinurbanareasandthecountryasawholebutnosubstantialchangeinruralareas.Thedecompositionanalysisindicatesthataverageyearsofeducation,thepercentageofhouseholdswithelectricityconnections,andphoneownershipaccountformostofthespatialvariationsinwelfare.Spatialconvergenceinurbanareascanbeexplainedprimarilybytheexpansionofelectricityandphonenetworksforhouseholduse.Improvedaccesstotheseserviceshadlittleeffectonspatialdisparityinruralareas.Thispaperoffersseveralexplanationsforthedifferenceinconvergenceratesbetweenurbanandruralareas.

ExportentrepreneurshipandtradestructureinLatinAmericaduringgoodandbadtimes

TheauthorsuseanewdatasetonexporttransactionsforalargesetofLatinAmericanandCaribbeanandcomparatorcountriestoassesstheextentof"exportentrepreneurship"duringperiodsoffastexportgrowth(2005-2007)anddepressedexternaldemand(2008-2009).Exportentrepreneurshipisequatedwiththeextensivemarginofexports,namelytheadventofnewexportingfirms,newexportproducts,andnewexportmarketdestinations.Themainfindingsare:(1)annualexporterentry,exit,andsurvivalratesinLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanarequitesimilartowhatisobservedinothercountries,andentryratesacrosssectorsarequitesimilarbutsurvivalratesappeartobehighestinagriculture;(2)therelativesizeofentrantsintoexportmarkets(relativetoincumbents)tendedtobelowerfornaturalresource-abundantcountriesduring2005-2007,butlesssoduringthecrisisyearsof2008-2009;(3)entryratestendtobelowerinsectorsinwhichacountryhasrevealedcomparativeadvantage,however,exitratesandsurvival