Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost November 27, 2012 Kevin Schaefer Ted Schuur Dave McGuire...
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Transcript of Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost November 27, 2012 Kevin Schaefer Ted Schuur Dave McGuire...
![Page 1: Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost November 27, 2012 Kevin Schaefer Ted Schuur Dave McGuire Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032518/56649ccc5503460f94996b36/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
November 27, 2012
Kevin SchaeferTed SchuurDave McGuire
Policy Implications of
Warming Permafrost
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Focus Discussion on Report
• United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
• Nov 2012 at Doha Conference of Parties (CoP)
• Authors– Coordinator: Ron Witt– Kevin Schaefer– Hugues Lantuit– Vladimir E. Romanovsky– Edward A. G. Schuur
• http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Impact of Thawing Permafrost on Global Climate• ~1700 Gt of carbon in permafrost as frozen organic matter
• Thawing permafrost will release CO2 and methane into atmosphere
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
The Permafrost Carbon Feedback
• Amplifies surface warming
• Irreversible• Emissions for centuries
Projected annual permafrost emissions for
A1B scenario
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Estimates of Permafrost Fluxes
Study Permafrost Carbon Emissions (Gt C)2100 2200 2300 Uncertainty
Schneider von Deimling et al. (2012)a 63 (82) 302 (392) 380 (493) 34%
Koven et al. (2011)a 62 (80) nac na 11%
Schuur et al. (2009)a,b 85 (110) na na 15%
Schaefer et al. (2011)a 104 (135) 190 (246) na 34%
a CO2 equivalent calculated assuming 2.7% of total emissions is methane (Schuur et al. 2011) and a global warming potential of 33 (Shindell et al. 2009)b calculated from emission rates in the paperc not available
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Impact on Climate Change Treaty
• 2°C warming target• Account for permafrost
emissions• AR5 Projections don’t
include permafrost emissions
• Temperatures higher with feedback
• Emissions targets may be too high
• Risk overshooting 2°C warming target
Temperature Projections 4th
Assessment Report
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Recommendation 1: Special IPCC report on permafrost emissions
• IPCC special assessment report– Future permafrost degradation– Permafrost CO2 and methane emissions
– Projections with permafrost carbon feedback
• Complement current projections• Support negotiation of emissions targets
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Recommendation 2: Create National permafrost monitoring networks
• Issue: Current networks not adequate
• Take over TSP/CALM– increase funding– standard
measurements– expand coverage
• All countries, especially Russia, Canada, China, United States
Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM)Thermal State of Permafrost (TSP)
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Recommendation 3: Plan for adaptation• Issue: No plans to
address infrastructure impacts
• Nations should develop adaptation Plans– Identify at-risk
infrastructure– Evaluate risks, costs,
mitigation
• All countries, especially Russia, Canada, China, United States
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Breakout Objectives
• How to implement recommendations?1) Special IPCC Assessment2) Nationalize CALM and TSP3) Adaptation Plans
• Focus on (1)• International Permafrost Association will
focus on (2) and (3)• All suggestions welcome
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Questions to consider
• How to make special assessment a priority?
• Who should we talk to?• Which agencies should be involved?• How should science community be
organized?• What should the special assessment
include?
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Thank you
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Acknowledgements
• Project Coordinator: Ron Witt, UNEP• Authors
– Kevin Schaefer, University of Colorado– Hugues Lantuit, Alfred Wegener Institute – Vladimir E. Romanovsky, University of Alaska
Fairbanks– Edward A. G. Schuur, University of Florida
• Full report: http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Permafrost is permanently frozen ground• Occurs in 24% of Northern
Hemisphere land
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Permafrost has begun to thaw
Permafrost
Active Layer Active layer thickness increasing
Permafrost temperatures rising
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Permafrost will continue to thaw
Projection of active layer thickness for A1B scenario
year
Active Layer Thickness (cm)
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Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost
Impacts of Climate Change on Permafrost
Ecosystems Infrastructure