1

Policy change &

the punctuated equilibrium theory

A longitudinal study of clean air policy-change in Sweden during

2011–2019

Gustaf Borelius

Bachelor’s thesis, 15 credits

Department of Government

Political Science C, Autumn 2020

Supervisor: Andreas Gottardis

Word count: 13 941

Pages: 44

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Innehåll Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 3

1.1 Main Purpose & Research Question...................................................................................... 4

1.2 Demarcations, Method, & Time Span ................................................................................... 5

1.3 Disposition .......................................................................................................................... 6

Theory - Policy Change and the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory ...................................................... 7

2.1.0 Brief Overview of Theories and Measurement of Policy Change ....................................... 7

2.1.1 - Overview of the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of Policy change .................................. 8

2.2 Previous Research on the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of Policy Change .......................... 11

2.3 Operationalization............................................................................................................. 13

Methodology.............................................................................................................................. 19

3.1 Case selection ................................................................................................................... 19

3.2 Research design & limitations ............................................................................................ 20

Results and Analysis.................................................................................................................... 24

4.1 Policy composition up until 2011 ........................................................................................ 24

4.2 The dynamics of Clean Air Policy 2011-2019........................................................................ 30

4.3 Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 35

4.4 Discussion ......................................................................................................................... 37

Conclusions ................................................................................................................................ 40

References ................................................................................................................................. 42

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Introduction Understanding how policies change and why has become a central topic in the study of public

policy in political science. The process of politics in general and public policymaking in

particular involves complex systems of interacting actors with different preferences, goals,

and ideas, operating within sometimes constraining and other times enabling institutional and

normative environments. We know for a fact that policies do undergo changes, sometimes

rather small and trivial but at other times in revolutionary ways that significantly affects large

numbers of people. How are we to make sense of these intricate and interactive processes of

how policies undergo change? Luckily, there are theories that, much like a burning torch,

allow us to navigate in the fog and the bog of the policy-process. One such, the punctuated

equilibrium theory, leads us to think that policy processes are generally characterized by

incrementalism - minimal change to existing policies. However, the stability, or equilibrium,

of this process can on rare occasions be “punctuated” due to an exogenous shock such as e.g

an economic crisis or a nuclear meltdown. The result of this puncture is theorized to lead to

rapid and dramatic change in public policy. With this in mind, it not only becomes interesting

to descriptively study how policy changes over time, but also to link this potential change (or

absence of change) in policy to expectations derived from the punctuated equilibrium theory,

in order to assess how it “holds up”.

While this theory encompasses policy change in very broad terms, meaning the

incremental/punctuated pattern is thought to explain policy dynamics in everything from

health care to international trade policy, some areas seem especially fruitful. One of them -

environmental policy, has been hinted at to provide fertile ground for the broader study of

policy change, and for relating the findings to the punctuated equilibrium theory.1 Moreover,

the dynamics of environmental policy is by no means irrelevant outside the literature or

discipline. Gaining an understanding of the patterns of policy change in general, and

environmental policy in particular, can be of utmost importance to policy makers, climate

activists, corporations, and in the end therefore even to the environment itself. For example,

this knowledge could possibly make policy entrepreneurs ask how to position themselves or

act if a punctuation seems likely, in order to either maximize or counteract the cascading

effects of its nature.

1 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006 . Punctuated Equilibrium Theory and Environmental Polic y, s.24-46 i Repetto &

Gustave Speth (red), Punctuated Equilibrium and the Dynamics of U.S. Environmental Policy. Yale University Press. s.24, 43f

4

Furthermore, since the literature has been heavily anglo-centric and federalism-favoured, it is

interesting to examine if these theorized patterns hold true in underexplored contexts such as

the Swedish case. It might also be compelling to study environmental policy in Sweden,

among other policy areas, as it may sometimes be greatly influenced by decisions and

ambitions on an EU-level. This provides a rather unique context of measuring policy change

where the policymaking is dyed in both “the national” and “the international”. With this in

mind, the study will seek to examine environmental policy change in Sweden, with a focus

on clean air-policy. This is because it is thought to be a typical case of environmental policy

and thus widely representative of environmental policy in general. Because of the nature of

clean air-policy in general still being very extensive, due to the fact that air pollution is a

phenomenon that stems from a very large variety of causes and measures for these causes,

this study will specifically limit itself to studying traffic-related change in clean air-policy.

Traffic will henceforth be understood in the context of motor-traffic, i.e “on the road”,

thereby excluding air and maritime traffic.

1.1 Main Purpose & Research Question

This study has three explicit purposes. The first purpose is to respond to one of the

heavyweights in the litterature - Frank M. Baumtgartner, and his invitation for further

intensive analysis on the process of policy change, thereby further closing the (albeit slight)

gap between quantitative and qualitative studies on the subject.2 The second purpose of this

study is to apply an improved theoretical framework of capturing the elements of policy

change, in order to give a more empirically nuanced and methodologically valid view of the

phenomenon compared to much of the previous literature on policy dynamics. The third and

final purpose will be to relate the empirical findings to those hypothesized by one of the

dominant theories of policy change - the punctuated equilibrium theory, in order to produce a

descriptive contribution to the literature regarding the explanatory capacity (or lack thereof)

the theory provides. By doing so it could also inspire future research to focus on the causality

of the findings, further putting the theory to the test.

In order to attain these three purposes, this study will attempt to answer the following two

research questions:

In which ways has Swedish clean air policy changed or not changed over time?

2 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006. s.37ff

5

To what extent can the change and/or absence of change of the Swedish clean air policy be

linked to expectations derived from the punctuated equilibrium theory?

1.2 Demarcations, Method, & Time Span

As mentioned in the introduction of this study, a demarcation of this study will focus on

traffic-related policy change in clean air-policy. This has been done because of feasibility

reasons, stemming from the fact that the causes of air pollution, and therefore the means and

ends of clean air-policy, are large and thus any attempt at intensively approximating an

exhaustive account of clean air-policy in any “broad” fashion would be too time consuming.

Furthermore, choosing to study clean air-policy with a specific focus on pollution caused by

traffic was based on the idea that it would serve as a typical and therefore representative case

of clean air-policy in general. This line of thinking stems from the fact that traffic-related

pollution should be suitable since it is (and for a very long time has been) one of the most

significant sources of pollution and therefore obstacles for attaining cleaner air.3

The method utilized in this study can be summed up as a longitudinal text analysis, with the

point of departure regarding material being on analyzing annual reports of the Swedish

Environmental Agency on their assessments of the environmental quality objectives

(miljömålen). In addition to these annual reports, complementary materials such as various

relevant governmental bills, reports, and EU-documents will be employed and analyzed as

seen fit. This text-analysis will be conducted by using an analytical framework developed by

Cashore & Howlett, that enables us to capture the elements of policy from our material in a

systematic way to then asess possible changes. This is important because it gives us the

prerequisites to answer our first research question, as well as link our results to the broader

theory of the punctuated equilibrium theory - thereby also enabling an answer to our second

research question.

Because this framework focuses on the more abstract ends or aims of a policy, as well as the

means or tools for attaining them (as will be shown later); anchoring this study primarily in

these mentioned annual reports is suitable as their purpose is to “present an overview of the

3 Naturvårdsverket. 2019. Frisk luft - underlagsrapport till den fördjupade utvärderingen av miljömålen (ISBN

978-91-620-6861-5). s.33

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aims of the environmental aims” and to “assess how the efforts (to attain these aims) is

progressing”.4

The time frame of this study covers the period 2011-2019, being selected based on theoretical

considerations derived from the punctuated equilibrium theory (which is explained more in

depth in the section of research design), as well as the insights that any analysis of policy

development often requires studying a period of at least several years.5

1.3 Disposition

The continued disposition of this study will be as follows. Firstly, a theoretical introduction

of policy change in general will be introduced, followed by a specific exposition of the

punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) of policy change and some expectations we can derive

from it. Following this, a review of previous research on the punctuated equilibrium theory of

policy change will be presented, as well as some problems that plague the study of policy

change in general. Subsequently, an operationalization section will present an analytical

framework that demonstrates how to empirically capture the components of a policy, and

therefore give us a tool for measuring policy change over time. Added to that, a smaller

analytical framework will be presented that lets us assess the mode (or degree) of policy

change through an interplay between its tempo and direction.

The third section of this study will cover the general methodology of the study, starting with

an overview and selection and motivation of case. Followed by this will be an in-depth

coverage on the chosen research design and its limitations, as well as a short methodological

discussion on alternate routes that could’ve been chosen instead. In the fourth and last

section, the results, analysis, and conclusion of this study will take place.

The results start off by using the main framework of this study (the one by Cashore and

Howlett) in order to map out the components of clean air policy in 2011. It will then be

attempted to trace how these components undergo change during the years, again through text

analysis of mainly annual governmental reports, leading up until 2019. After summarizing

how the clean air-policy has undergone change throughout this time span, an analysis with

4 Naturvårdsverket 2012 Steg på vägen - Fördjupad utvärdering av miljömålen 2012 (ISBN 978-91-620-6500-3)

s.3

5 Cashore, Benjamin & Howlett, Michael, 2009. The Dependent Variable Problem in the study of Policy Change:

Understanding Policy Change as a Methodological Problem. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis 11(1): 33-46. s.35

7

the help of the second analytical framework will be used in an attempt to classify the mode of

the policy change. Note that at this point, the first research question will have been answered.

Lastly, a discussion regarding the results and analysis will be conducted, mainly by relating it

to the punctuated equilibrium theory and its expectations of how the policy should have

undergone change. Thus the second research question should have been answered.

Theory - Policy Change and the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory 2.1.0 Brief Overview of Theories and Measurement of Policy Change

The study of policy change can be treated as a core area of public policy, with a large interest

in the description and explanation of changes in dominant policy patterns across different

fields.6 In the contemporary literature, there are several ways in which policy change can be

measured, and multiple theories on why policy change does (or does not) occur; and so far,

none of the approaches has achieved the position as dominant or generally accepted.7

The theories of how and why policy change occurs can be can according to Knill & Tosun be

classified in accordance with their underlying causal logic.8 In their summary, there are on

the one hand approaches that are anchored in a “linear-additive” view of causality, where a

clear distinction between independent and dependent variables is assumed; where

independent variables mostly refer to macro-factors such as changes in government, socio-

economic conditions, strength of societal interest groups, and so on.9 On the other hand, there

are approaches based on a logic of “combinative causality'', where possible combinations of

causal conditions able to generate a specific result are searched for.10

Theories with the underlying “combinative causality” logic for explaining policy change are

generally characterized for being inclusive in integrating structures, institutions, and actors,

although they often place specific emphasis on certain explanatory factors.11 The punctuated

equilibrium theory can be categorized as a theory with the “combinative causality” approach,

with a specific emphasis on institutional factors, as will be seen below.

6 Knill, Christoph & Tosun, Jale 2012. Public Policy: A New Introduction. London: Palgrave Macmillan. s.251

7 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.251

8 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.252

9 Knil & Tosun, 2012. s.252

10 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.252

11 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.253

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There are also several ways to go about measuring policy change, with frameworks

developed by e.g Sabaiter and Jenkins-smith that can be summarized as distinguishing

between changes in core beliefs and changes in secondary aspects, with core beliefs being

more difficult than secondary aspects to attain (thus indicating a paradigmatic policy

change)12. However, in the study of policy change in relation to the punctuated equilibrium

theory, a framework for measuring policy change developed by Peter Hall has been very

popular - being the most often cited in the litterature and applied in empirical studies.

However, due to having issues such as conflating the elements of the dependent variable

(amongst other things), Cashore & Howlett developed a framework based upon Hall’s, which

serve as the instrument of measurement for this study. An overview of these issues, as well as

Cashore & Howlett’s framework, will be covered in the operationalization section later.

2.1.1 - Overview of the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of Policy change

The punctuated equilibrium theory was originally developed by Baumgartner & Jones, and

strives to explain why political and policy processes usually are characterized by stability and

incrementalism - an absence of noteworthy change from the status quo; but on rare occasions

produce dramatic shifts away from this status quo.13 It is an attempt to combine the two most

historically prominent streams of thinking in policy dynamics, Charles Lindblom’s work on

incrementalism in 1959 and Peter Hall’s study of policy paradigms in 1989, breaking the long

term orthodoxy of incrementalism.14 To begin with, the PET can be broken down into two

central components that are fundamental in explaining the duality of change in the policy

process: a positive and a negative feedback system.

The negative feedback system’s most important feature is that it can be described as

containing a self-correcting mechanism that works to maintain stability in a political system.

Similarly to Isaac Newton’s third law of motion, the self correcting mechanism reacts in the

opposite way of external pressures trying to induce policy change, counterbalancing the push

for change and thus works in maintaining the often prevailing status quo (and keeping the

policy change in a form of an equilibrium).15 The PET is built on the idea that policymaking

12 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.260

13 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.111, 255f

14 Cashore & Howlett, 2009. s.34

15 Baumgartner, Frank R. & Jones, Bryan D. 2002. Policy Dynamics. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

s.8f; van der Heijden, Jeroen & Kuhlmann, Johanna, 2018. What Is Known about Punctuated Equilibrium

9

is mainly conducted in policy subsystems, outside the world of high politics; where these

subsystems are defined as institutional arenas with capacity to handle many policy issues

routinely, and are populated by experts, bureaucrats, and interest groups.16 These policy

subsystems, also called policy monopolies, are in situations of negative feedback dominated

by a stable set of policy images, that is, certain norms and ideas that limit how policy issues

can be discussed.17 In addition to policy images, there are in the context of negative feedback

given institutional arenas where policymaking takes place, in the litterature often called

policy venues, that limit who can and cannot participate in the policy debate.18 In situations

where policy image remains stable, or at least resistant to radical rethinking because of the

self correcting nature of the political system; coupled with policy venues in which

institutional rules are clear in structuring who can be seen as a legitimate participant in the

policymaking process and who can be defined as an outsider, we should expect stable policy

monopolies and therefore an incremental patterns of policy change.19

However, these policy monopolies, though resistant to destabilization, are not invincible.

Through exogenous events (also called external shocks or perturbations), which according to

Knill & Tosun bears the highest potential to alter both policy venues and images, stable

policy monopolies can be broken.20

It is e.g through shining a strong light (which cannot be ignored) on a certain dimension of a

policy that has previously been ignored or underemphasized by the prevailing policy image

that these external shocks may cause a shift in the policy monopoly. This results in a

punctuation, creating opportunities for both new actors to make legitimate claims of taking

part in existing policy venues, which leads to an introduction of new considerations of norms

and ideas regarding the policy issues (a redefinition of the policy image), which again can

lead to even further opportunity for new actors to enter the policy venue, and so on... It is this

Theory? And What Does That Tell Us about the Construction Validation, and Replication of Knowledge in the Policy Sciences? The Review of policy research 35(2): 326-347. s.328f

16 Jennings, Farrall, Gray, & Hay, 2020. Moral Panics and Punctuated Equilibrium in Public Policy: An Analysis of

the Criminal Justice Policy Agenda in Britain. Policy Studies Journal 48(1): 207-234, s.209

17 Baumgartner & Jones, 2002. s.12f; Jennings, Farrall, Gray, & Hay, 2020. s.209

18 Baumgartner & Jones, 2002. s.12; Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.111

19 Baumgartner & Jones, 2002. s.12

20 Knill & Tosun, 2012. s.111

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self-perpetuating process that has been coined the positive feedback mechanism, and it can

lead to a cascading and explosive (often called paradigmatic) change of the policies

themselves, through this destabilization of the policy monopoly. A hypothetical example of

this could be for instance nuclear energy policy undergoing dramatic change through a

nuclear reactor meltdown. Before this exogenous event, the prevailing policy image may be

viewing nuclear energy in terms of cost-effectiveness and reliable energy production.

However, after this event the policy image may undergo a dramatic shift to nuclear energy

being hazardous to both humans and the environment, paving way for new actors, such as e.g

anti-nuclear environmentalists, to claim seats in the policy venue. As previously explained,

we now have fertile conditions for a positive feedback process to take place, and in the

context mentioned above it could probably lead to anything from tightened restrictions and

safety protocols to plans of a full out decommissioning of nuclear power plants in a country.

policy image thought to change before policy venue, even though venue as can be seen can

change policy image.

From the punctuated equilibrium theory, we can derive the following expectations or

hypothises from the nature of the policy change, which we later can attempt to compare

empirically:

- Incremental change should be the dominant form of policy change in the absence of

an exogenous event

- If an exogenous event takes place, paradigmatic policy change should take

precedence and follow relatively close in time

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2.2 Previous Research on the Punctuated Equilibrium Theory of Policy Change

Previous research on studying and exploring punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) in policy

change have been quite vibrant. There has been much empirical support that change in

policies in the long run generally follow the patterns of positive (paradigmatic) and negative

(incremental) feedback that the PET theorizes. In an anthology of essays edited by Frank R.

Baumgartner & Brian Jones (the original architects of the PET-approach), with the

collaborating scholars using a then previously unprecedented data set, the authors draw the

general conclusions that their essays have introduced a great variety of evidence in support of

the ideas that government responses to public policy have been subject to positive and

negative feedback processes in the American context (in other words, support for the

punctuated equilibrium theory).21 As seen below, studies have discovered this to be the case

in other nations, and in fact, findings have even emerged that policy making even on the

international level exhibits policy change patterns consistent with the punctuated equilibria

approach.22

In a meta-review conducted by Kuhlmann & van der Heijden regarding the application of the

punctuated equilibrium theory on policy change, amongst other things two interesting

findings can be observed. Firstly, they find that studies focusing on the United States are

dominant in the field and making up 59% of publications.23 Outside of the U.S, Anglo

countries, especially the UK, make up a substantial remainder of studies (14%); however,

PET is gaining traction in studying policy change in other european countries as well, such as

Denmark (10%) and Belgium (9%).24 Kuhlmann & van der Heijden also finds that from the

86 articles part of the sample, 25 of them explicitly test hypotheses derived from the

punctuated equilibrium theory, where 17 of these studies confirm, 6 of them partially

confirm, and 2 of them do not confirm theoretical expectations.25

21 Baumgartner, Frank R. & Jones, Bryan D. 2002. Policy Dynamics. s.291

22 Lundgren, Magnus; Squatrito, Theresa, & Tallberg, Jonas, 2017. Stability and change in internation al policy-

making: A punctuated equilibrium approach. The Review of International Organisations 13(4) 547-572

23 van der Heijden & Kuhlmann, 2018. s.334

24 Ibid s.334

25 Ibid s.340f

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Of the remaining 61 studies included in the sample, who refrain from explicitly testing

hypotheses, 47 of them state that their empirical study confirms theoretical expectations, 8 of

them partially do, and 6 do not.26 This can be interpreted as an indication that the punctuated

equilibrium theory in general does a good job in explaining policy change.

Additionally, two notable observations one can make regarding the literature is that previous

research is somewhat skewed toward the more extensive (quantitative) ways of gathering and

analyzing data; as well as mostly focusing on analyzing the statistical distribution of many

cases (and the appearance of this distribution) rather than regression techniques which are

more common in the quantitative field of political science.27 While there does exist a

respectable number of more intensive and case-like studies of single policies over time in

order to understand the given contexts and details underlying the shift from incremental to

paradigmatic policy change, such as in Cashore & Howlett’s study of forest policy changes in

the U.S Pacific Northwest, these are to a certain extent in shorter supply.28 This first

observation is also buttressed by Kuhlmann & van der Heijden, stating that approximately

42% of approaches are of qualitative nature, 48% on quantitative, and the rest relying on a

mixed-method design.29 Of course, as Baumgartner notes in his lessons for case analysis on

the subject, the extensive analyses must be strengthened with intensive analyses containing

these previously mentioned contexts and details in order to understand the process of policy

change in a more complete fashion, as he invites for more of these types of studies.30

The literature of policy dynamics does, however, not go without its definitional and

operationazional disputes. In two of their articles, Cashore & Howlett criticises a large part of

the previous literature on policy dynamics for conflating several distinct change processes

present in specific elements of policy, in other words conflating “the dependent variable”.31

26 Ibid s.340f

27 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006. s.26f

28 Cashore, Benjamin & Howlett, Michael, 2006. Behavioral Thresholds and Institutional Rigidities as

Explanations of Punctuated Equilibrium Processes in the Pacific Northwest Forest Policy Dynamics, s. 137 -161, i Repetto & Gustave Speth (red), Punctuated Equilibrium and the Dynamics of U.S. Environmental Policy. Yale

University Press.

29 van der Heijden & Kuhlmann, 2018. s.339

30 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006. s.36ff

31 Cashore & Howlett, 2009. s.37ff

13

Cashore & Howlett attribute this to the fact that scholars in the research area mainly use a

“three order model”-taxonomy devised by Peter Hall in order to measure policy change,

which they mean lacks the capacity to disentangle these policies in a proper fashion. To

overcome (or at least to alleviate) this “dependent variable problem”, Cashore and Howlett

develop a more contemporary and improved taxonomy of policy composition based on Hall’s

work, which they argue will lead to a more accurate picture of the actual patterns of change

present in empirical cases.32

2.3 Operationalization

In order to study policy change over time empirically, and thus be able to compare our results

to the punctuated equilibrium theory, an analytical tool is required which can systematically

capture important components of a policy that is subject to change. As teased in the section

summarizing previous research on the area, a taxonomy of policy components proposed by

Cashore & Howell will be utilized in this study.33 This framework draws upon the original

work of Hall’s “three order model” in classifying policy composition, where he has identified

three policy elements subject to change: “The overarching goals on a high level abstraction

that guide policy in a particular field, the policy instruments on a programme level used to

attain these goals, and the settings of these instruments in an on-the-ground level.34 Hall saw

the need to distinguish between these different elements in order to gain improved insights in

the patterns of policy stability and development, because previous research on policy change

before Hall’s model tended to conflate these elements into a single dependent variable.35

However, in light of new empirical evidence that has emerged since, Cashore & Howlett has

argued that Hall’s efforts require recalibration in light of its own logic, as his three-order

model still struggles with the problem of conflating important and seperate policy elements.36

Cashore & Howlett expands on Hall’s model by differentiating between policy aims and

means, as well as between levels of abstraction: high level abstraction, specific on the ground

32 Cashore & Howlett 2009. s.39-42; see also Cashore, Benjamin & Howlett, Michael, 2007. Punctuating Which

Equilibrium? Understanding Thermostatic Policy Dynamics in Pacific Northwest Forestry. American journal of

political science 51(3):532-551. s.537.

33 Ibid.

34 Moore, Brendan, & Jordan, Andrew, 2020. Disaggregating the dependent variable in policy feedback

research: an analysis of the EU Emissions Trading System. Policy sciences 53(2): 291-307. s.295

35 Cashore & Howlett 2009. s.36

36 Ibid, s.38

14

measures (less abstract), and specific on-the-ground measures (least abstract).37 By doing

this, Cashore & Howlett distinguishes between six elements of policy that can undergo

change instead of Hall’s three, which will be overviewed in the following.

Firstly, a policy can be overarchingly divided into policy ends or aims and policy means or

tools. Policy ends or aims can in turn be conceptually subdivided into three categories or

elements.38 The first, policy goals, in more abstract terms asks what general types of ideas

govern policy development, such as e.g environmental protection or economic development.

The second, policy objectives, in less abstract terms asks what the policy formally aims to

address, such as saving wilderness or species habitat. The third, policy settings, asks what the

specific on-the-ground requirements of the policy are.

According to this model, policy means or tools can be subdivided into three elements as

well.39 Policy instrument logic concerns what general norms guide the selection of

implementation tools, e.g preferences for the use of coercive instruments. Policy Mechanisms

asks what specific instruments are utilized, such as tax systems. And finally, policy

calibrations ask what the specific ways in which the instrument is being used are, for

example the use of mandatory vs voluntary regulatory guidelines or standards. An overview

of these elements can be observed in table 1 below.

37 Moore & Jordan, 2020. s.295

38 Cashore & Howlett 2009 s.39; Henstra, Daniel 2011. The Dynamics of Policy Change: A Longitudinal Analysis

of Emergency Management in Ontario. Journal of policy history 23(3): 399-428. s.406

39 Cashore & Howlett 2009 s.39

15

Table 1. Elements of policy object to change

High Level Abstraction Programme Level Operationalization (Less Abstraction)

Specific On-the-Ground measures

Policy Ends or Aims GOALS

What General Types

of Ideas Govern

Policy Development?

(e.g environmental protection, economic development)

OBJECTIVES

What Does Policy

Formally Aim to

Address?

(e.g saving wilderness or species habitat, increasing harvesting levels to create processing jobs)

SETTINGS

What are the Specific

On-the-ground

Requirements of

Policy?

(e.g considerations about the optimal size of designed stream-bed riparian zones, or sustainable levels of harvesting)

Policy Means or Tools INSTRUMENT

LOGIC

What General Norms

Guide

Implementation

Preferences?

(e.g preferences for the use of coercive instruments or moral suasion)

MECHANISMS

What Specific Types

of Instruments are

Utilized?

(e.g the use of different tools such as tax incentives, or public enterprises)

CALIBRATIONS

What are the Specific

Ways in Which the

Instrument is used?

(e-g designations of higher levels of subsidies, the use of mandatory vs regulatory guidelines or standards)

Source : Adapted from Howlett, Michael & Cashore, Benjamin, 2009. The Dependent Variable Problem in the study of

Policy Change: Understanding Policy Change as a Methodological Problem. Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis 11(1):

33-46

However, it is not enough to study if different elements of policy have changed over time. We

would also like to be able to answer both the mode (or degree) of the change as well as the

direction of it in order to properly answer in which ways the policy has changed over time.

Has the policy change been paradigmatic or incremental? Has the policy undergone a

cumulative change away from the status quo, or do they represent a fluctuation consistent

16

with an existing policy equilibrium?40 In order to do this, our analysis must include a

framework that can separate between different types of incremental and paradigmatic change

in our observations; as well as if the direction of change (as just recently mentioned).

Regretfully, there exists no tool for systematically drawing the line when a change is

incremental and when it is paradigmatic, which we will return to discuss. However, there

does exist a taxonomy created by Durant and Diehl, and suggested by Cashore & Howlett in

conjunction with the model above, that discerns the directionality of change as well as

identifying four typical modes of change that can occur(see Table 2).41 By using this

framework, we come a long way in answering in which ways the analyzed policy has

undergone change as well as giving a more nuanced classification of the different modes of

change (in contrast to the binary incremental/paradigmatic fault line typical in the litterature).

This framework will now be explained in more detail, before returning to the issue of

determining the mode of change in practice, as teased above.

Table 2. Direction and typical modes of Policy Change

Tempo of Change

Directionality of Change Fast Slow

Cumulative “Classic” Paradigmatic Progressive Incremental

In Equilibrium “Faux” Paradigmatic “Classic” Incremental

(cells contain typical “modes” of change)

Source : Adapted from Howlett, Michael & Cashore, Benjamin, 2007. Punctuating Which Equilibrium? Understanding

Thermostatic Policy Dynamics in Pacific Northwest Forestry. American Journal of Political Science 51(3): 532-551

40 Cashore & Howlett, 2007. s.537

41 Ibid, s.538

17

This above mentioned framework reconceptualizes policy change as an interplay of tempo

and directionality, with tempo in this context being the speed of change of a policy and the

directionality of change, meaning if the changes are (cumulatively) leading away from an

existing policy equilibrium towards another or whether they represent a fluctuation consistent

with an existing one.42 In doing so, this taxonomy identifies two commonly ignored or

inaccurately juxtaposed modes of change that exist in addition to the “classic” or ordinary

paradigmatic and incremental types traditionally found in the discourse.43 The first of these,

“faux” paradigmatic changes, are rapid and noncumulative; they are often misinterpreted as

ordinary paradigmatic changes because they can deviate significantly away from the status

quo, but then change back rather quickly into their original equilibrium. In other words,

“faux” paradigmatic change is in reality a form of incremental change. This type of change

can also possibly be malicious to the analysis, as the time frame may very well begin or end

in the middle of them and thereby leading in an over-or underestimation of the change in the

result. We will return issues like these in the section of research design. Progressive

incremental changes are slow but cumulative changes that, in contrast to the name, result in

major policy change over time. This type is often mistakenly categorized as classic

incremental change. The implications of these two additional types of change is that policy

change ideally must be studied over longer periods of time in order to be able to adequately

classify the different types of policy change, as they otherwise risk being incorrectly viewed

as “classic” paradigmatic or incremental changes.

Now we return to the issues of determining mode of change in practice. An important

observation the author has done is that there does not seem to exist a clear-cut definition

between how much of a change is required for it to go from being incremental and instead

becoming paradigmatic, and vice versa. This issue is emphasized by Cashore & Howlett, who

notes that “... as have been pointed out for some time, neither a clear definition nor an

exhaustive taxonomy of change types currently exists, resulting in both incremental and

paradigmatic change (and the distinction between them) remaining under-specified entities.44

42 Ibid, s.537

43 Ibid, s.537f

44 Cashore & Howlett 2009 s.40

18

The task of doing this seems to be up to the individual researcher, to some degree by using

their intuition, knowledge, and common sense when analysing variations in the elements of

policy change. Some guidance can be derived from the Hall’s logic, where changes in the

high levels of abstraction (“goals” and “instrument logic”), often called third order changes,

seem to be the hardest to achieve and thus imply a paradigmatic policy change (and therefore

also to be the result of an exogenous event).45 First and second order changes are associated

with the specific on-the-ground measures (“objectives” and “mechanisms”) and programme

level operationalization (“settings” or “calibrations”) respectively, and changes in these are

generally thought to be incremental and the result of endogenous activities within the policy

subsystem.46 However, a slight change in the “goals” or “instrument logic” (or both) might

not warrant a categorization as a paradigmatic change, and a complete shift in”objectives” or

“goals” might not be appropriately described as incremental. The consequence of leaving

these considerations up to the judgement of the individual researcher will affect the reliability

of this analysis in a negative way.

45 Ibid, s.37

46 Ibid, s.37

19

Methodology

3.1 Case selection

This study will cover the policy dynamics of environmental policy over time in the Swedish

context. More specifically, it will concentrate its focus on Swedish clean air policy. Choosing

a case within the environmental policy area as grounds for this study is inspired by

Baumgartners conclusions that it is a fertile ground for studying policy change, particularly in

relation to the PET; this because it has shown consistent patterns of stability and change

driven by the dynamics of the policy process, much like other areas of public policy.47 We

can thus expect the results of an analysis of policy change on environmental policy such as

clean air, atleast to a certain extent, to be representative of several other public policy areas -

and therefore making some generalizations of the results increasingly plausible.

Because previous studies on environmental policy according to Baumgartner have shown

consistent patterns of stability, coupled with the fact that this study aims to study policy

change over several years, one can be fairly confident (or at least hopefull) in predicting that

the result will produce some variation in the examined variables. By producing a descriptive

result with at least some variation in the examined variables, the result not only becomes less

drudging to read, it also contributes to set up future research explicitly focusing on the causal

mechanisms that generate this variation - thus making a more significant contribution.48

There are multiple reasons. Firstly, clean air policy is interesting and fitting to study because

of its intuitivity as a typical case of environmental policy. Moreover, gaining insights in this

particular policy area can to some degree be seen as valuable in both other scientific

disciplines and real life actors, as this information could prove useful elsewhere for e.g

policymakers or scientists of other disciplines concerned with both local and global

challenges arising from air pollution.

But what is the reason for specifically choosing clean air policy in the Swedish context? The

Swedish context is chosen mainly because it is a very uncommon national setting for analysis

in the literature of policy dynamics in general and in PET-studies in particular, where there

exists a heavy U.S bias.49 As mentioned in the introduction, its rather unique setting in both

47 Baumgartner, Frank M. 2006. s.24, 43f

48 Esaiasson, P., Gilljam, M., Oscarsson, H., Towns, A., och Wängnerud, L., 2017. Metodpraktikan: Konsten att

studera samhälle, individ och marknad. Stockholm: Wolters Kluwer s.152

49 van der Heijden & Kuhlmann, 2018. s.335f

20

“the national” and “international” also plays a part. Braving new waters when analyzing

policy change could potentially give new valuable insights, as well as setting up future

research for doing so as well. However, using this logic, any country (or organization)

underrepresented in the litterature could be motivated as an object of study. The final blow

for specifically choosing Sweden therefore lies in its linguistic opportunity and practicality,

with the author of this study being of Swedish nationality.

3.2 Research design & limitations

With reference to the chapter of previous research on the area, observations have been made

that extensive analysis of policy change to a certain extent have been overrepresented. Along

with this, Baumgartner, one of the architects of the PET, emphasizes that extensive analysis

must be complemented by intensive in order to produce a fuller understanding of the process

of policy change. As said, the purposes of this study will be to cater to this slight qualitative

deficit in the PET-litterature, as well as aiming to give a more valid and nuanced picture of

policy change than most previous literature. By carrying out a longitudinal case analysis of

how policy changes over time with an improved framework, and relating our results to the

punctuated equilibrium theory, we gain the prerequisites to answer our research questions and

achieve the purposes of this study. As mentioned above, this will more concretely be done by

analyzing the six elements of policy proposed by Cashore & Howlett over a selected time

span.

Because we will be studying a specific policy by applying a systematic framework to an

empirical material such as governmental reports and bills over different points in time, one

could methodologically talk about this study as conducting a comparative within-case text-

analysis. The text-analysis part can be emphasized in the pursuit of defining the policy

contents empirically at specific points in time, while the comparative part can be understood

in light of comparing the results of the analyzed material from the different points in time,

and using it as grounds for speaking of policy change.50 Using text-analysis as a method also

comes naturally from the descriptive nature of the study, particularly the first research

question, since it by definition is a form of descriptive and qualitative analytical method for

systematically organising empirical content in order for it to tell us how things are or have

50 Esaiasson, Gilljam, Oscarsson, Towns and Wängnerud, 2017. s.98f

21

been (and in this case also the relative differences between them - how things have

changed).51

This brings us to one of the most important and challenging considerations of this study -

deciding upon the time frame. Ideally, in order to gather as convincing empirical evidence of

policy change as possible, the number of observations should be many, as well as cover as

long of a time period as conceivable.52 Also, because our theoretical expectations also make

clear that paradigmatic changes linked to positive feedback processes are the exception

(rarely occurring), and incremental change linked to negative feedback is the norm, any

attempt to capture both by their nature should mean analysis of long periods of time to be the

most desirable. However, due to the very nature of this study being a bachelor’s thesis, with

limited time and resources, it is not possible to achieve many observations over a large span

of time - at least not in a qualitative fashion. The time frame must therefore somehow be

decided according to some other considerations, and thoughtfully. The main problem arising

from an ill-considered time frame is the risk of censoring - i.e the incomplete recording of

information at the beginning or the end of the event that is of interest.53 A hypothetical

example of this can be recalled from the operationalization section concerning “faux''

paradigmatic change. To reiterate - faux paradigmatic change meant a fast but uncumulative,

where the policy contents diverges dramatically away from equilibrium only to rather quickly

move back, therefore being a form of incremental change. If the time frame of the analysis

were to begin after the initial change, we would incorrectly categorize this change as

paradigmatic (fast and cumulative) even though it in reality should be seen as incremental.

Note that this is just one example of censoring, and the “faux'' paradigmatic case is likely

more malicious than other forms of censoring because we lack theoretical expectations of

why they take place.

While we can never eliminate the risk of censoring complemetly. By choosing a time frame

according to theoretical considerations, we can reduce it.54 For example, since we according

to the PET can expect paradigmatic policy changes to be most likely to occur because of

51 Ibid, s.98f; Svensson, Torsten & Teorell, Jan, 2007. Att fråga och att svara: Samhällsvetenskaplig metod.

Stockholm: Liber. s.213

52 Baumgartner & Jones, 2002. s.258

53 Ibid, s.258

54 Ibid, s.258

22

exogenous events, we can attempt to position our time frame so that it doesn’t start or end

right in the middle of one. We can even turn this insight to an advantage (to attain variation),

by choosing a time frame that also includes some exogenous event we suspect could have

affected the policy. In this case, the exogenous event we will position in accordance with our

time frame is signing and ratification of the Paris Agreement, that formally entered into force

november of 2016.

All things considered, this study will attempt to choose on a time frame that covers the period

of this exogenous event (the Paris agreement) that is thought to likely have affected the

contents of Swedish clean air policy in a major way (thereby in line with theoretical

considerations), while also covering a certain period before and after the change (in order to

reduce risk of censoring). With this “certain period before and after” has been deemed

appropriate to cover the time span between roughly 2011-2019.

However, if we are to hinge our time frame to the Paris Agreement, we must motivate in

which way might be a suitable candidate as an exogenous event. But first, what is the Paris

Agreement? According to the UNFCC website (United Nations Framework Convention on

Climate Change), the Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate

change agreed upon in December of 2015 that aims at limiting the increasing global

temperature below 2°C (but preferably 1,5℃) - mainly by minimizing the release of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere but it also aims at supporting those who are affected by

the effects of climate change.55 It is a deal that has been adopted by all countries of the world

(with an exception of the U.S who formally withdrew from the treaty 20 November 2020 but

with plans on rejoining) and becomes formally binding in November 2016.56

Most PET-scholars have relied on Kingdon’s idea that exogenous shocks galvanize mass

political attention on an issue and highlight vital problems that require government attention -

a first step in initiating a positive feedback mechanism (as covered in the theory section).57 In

other words, the exogenous event should have the characteristics of being able to mount

55 UNFCCC. The Paris Agreement (Retrieved 22/12-20) Link: https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-

agreement/the-paris-agreement

56 Naturvårdsverket. Vad är Parisavtalet? (Retrieved 22/12-20), Link:

https://www.naturvardsverket.se/Miljoarbete-i-samhallet/EU-och-internationellt/Internationellt-miljoarbete/miljokonventioner/Klimatkonventionen/Parisavtalet/Vad-ar-Parisavtalet/

57 Beyer, Breunig, Radojevic, 2017. Punctuated Equilibrium Theory, in Zahariadis & Buonanno (eds) The

Routledge Handbook of European Public Policy

23

heavy pressure on policy makers to do something. Most often in the litterature, these

exogenous events are often described as sudden catastrophic events such as nuclear

meltdowns or financial crises.

In this regard, the Paris Agreement is different because it is not a treaty that has suddenly

sprung out of nowhere, but rather has been a rather predictable event at least some time

before its agreement. However, because of its international consensus, coupled with the fact

that the goals are relatively ambitious, it is thought that the treaty should do a good job at

galvanizing mass political attention and mount pressure on national policymakers. With this

in mind, despite its lack of “suddenness”, the Paris Agreement is thought to do well in

increasing the likelihood of a positive feedback process to be initiated, and should therefore

serve as a suitable exogenous event.

Lastly, a notable demarcation of this study is to only cover clean air policy related to

pollution caused by traffic. The reason for this is that clean air-policy in general involves a

too large and complex set of means and ends to be able to capture in a single study. Air

pollution is not only thought to be caused by traffic, but by the energy sector, the industrial

sector, agriculture and food production, construction, and so on. An exhaustive account of the

Swedish clean air policy, as well as the changes in it, would necessarily have to include all of

these, as well as the instruments and specific ways in which they are used to combat air

pollution. This study therefore rests on the assumption that the changes in clean air policy

related to pollution caused by traffic is representative of the changes in the overall clean air

policy, as the measures against traffic-related air pollution is thought of as a “typical case” of

clean air policy. It is a logical assumption to make, as air pollution related to traffic is one of

the fundamental causes of polluted air.58 However, like all assumptions this one can of course

in one way or another be met with some scepticism and criticism, and this is also welcomed.

However, in order to make this study feasible, it is an assumption that has been done.

58 Steg på vägen: fördjupad utvärdering av miljömålen 2012. s.191

24

Results and Analysis Starting in the 2012 report for in depth assessment of the environmental quality objectives

(miljömålen) by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (Naturvårdsverket) that

covers 2011, we can begin to discern the different policy elements that make up the Swedish

clean air policy related to traffic at this time with help of our framework. The means and ends

of the policy will then be traced forward through time, noting any additions, removals, or

changes in the elements. The first part of this section will be to map out the composition

Swedish clean air policy of 2011 (note the above-mentioned report has its evaluation

anchored in 2011). The second part of this results section will then attempt to map out if and

how the different components of the clean air policy have changed over time up to 2019. The

third part will briefly summarize what has changed and what hasn’t, then turning to analyse

the change. Lastly, a discussion regarding the results and the analysis of it will be conducted.

A disclaimer that may be wise to signal here is that all the citations from Swedish sources are

directly translated by the author of this study.

4.1 Policy composition up until 2011 High level abstraction

Regarding the ideas that govern clean air policy development, four major ideas of problems

governing air pollution can be identified - damage to human health, environmental health,

cultural heritage, and economic development. Naturally, these problems are the same in the

specific context of air pollution related to traffic. The report mentioned in the introductory

part of this section notes that “Increased levels of air pollution cause significant damage to

human health, to vegetation, and cultural objects”, as well as “decreased health and

environmental impacts costs society considerable amounts of money - with damage caused

by high levels of polluting particles is estimated to cost up to 26 billion sek/year.59

Norms that guide implementation preferences are varied, and as noted in the above-

mentioned report “in order to reach the environmental quality objectives we must work on a

broad front and use (all) the different instruments at our disposal”.60

59 Ibid. s.182f

60 Ibid. s.82

25

This holds true for traffic in particular, where coercive instruments such as different forms of

taxation such as fuel and congestion tax, and regulations such as minimum requirements of

nitrogen oxide emissions from new cars, and extended restrictions on studded tires, have been

used.61 Non-coercive instruments used include e.g tax-exemption of biofuel, a green car

premium, reduced vehicle tax cars classified as green, as well as investments in research of

new and greener tech in the transport sector.62 What seems to be the most important norm

that guides implementation of instruments seems to be efficiency, as described in the 2012

report in the context of environmental goals for a toxic-free environment (which is related to

clean air policy) “In order to achieve a total (pollutant) exposure not harmful to humans or

the ecosystem, high demands are placed on efficient instruments”, where “both coercive and

non-coercive actions are necessary”.63

Programme level operationalization

What does the policy formally aim to address? In simple terms, it aims at reducing the levels

of pollutants in urban areas in particular and in general the atmosphere.64 More specifically,

as noted, it aims at reducing it to the point in which human health, animal and plant life, and

cultural heritage is not harmed, and aims at doing this “within a generation”.65 An additional

aim that merges with the previous is that “the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere…

must stabilize to a level so that the human impact on the climate system does not become

dangerous”, and that “the goal must be reached in such a way and haste that the biodiversity

is preserved, the production of foodstuffs (livsmedelsproduktion) is secured, and that other

goals for sustainable development is not jeopardized.66

61 Ibid. s.34, 95, 199

62 Ibid. s.98

63 Ibid. s.243

64 Ibid. s.180

65 Ibid. s.180

66 Ibid. s.162

26

What specific types of instruments are utilized? By use of different forms of regulatory and

legislative instruments within the frame of e.g the legislation regarding environmental quality

norms (lagstiftningen om miljökvalitetsnormer) and the Swedish Environmental Code

(Miljöbalken).67 Along with regulatory and legislative instruments, both economic incentives

and deterrents such as different forms of taxation and subsidization are deployed in an

attempt to achieve the objectives of a cleaner air policy, which will be specified more in

depth in the next section on “Specific on-the-ground measures”. Lastly, informational

instruments (which can be viewed as the least coercive), such as informational campaigns

directed towards households on e.g how they can change their traffic-habits are used.68

Specific on-the-ground measures

What can be interpreted as the specific on-the-ground requirements of the clean air policy? It

is recognized in the 2012 report that while it is tough to determine what is “dangerous human

impact on the climate system”, three specific requirements are important to attain the above

mentioned aims.69 Firstly, there is a temperature goal to limit the global mean temperature

increase to a maximum of two degrees celsius in the long run, in relation to pre-industrial

level. The second goal, a concentration goal, where the concentration of greenhouse gases in

the atmosphere must stabilize at the maximum of 400ppm carbon dioxide-equivalents. Lastly,

there is an “intermediary goal” (etappmål) assigned until 2020, which states that greenhouse

gas emissions must decrease by 40 percent compared to 1990, which translates to about 20

million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalents lower.70

The specific ways in which the instruments in which the instruments have been used will be

accounted for in the following. Firstly, the central economic instruments will be explained,

followed by the central legislative and regulatory instruments, and lastly the instrumental

ones.

67 Ibid. s.88, 185

68 Ibid. s.100f; Gipperth, Lena & Pleijel, Håkan, 2008. Har Miljökvalitetsnormerna förbättrat utomhusluften?

s.45

69 Steg på vägen 2012 s.163

70 Ibid. s.173

27

From the first of August 2007, a congestion tax proposed by the Swedish government was

accepted by the Swedish riksdag to be implemented in Stockholm, with the purpose of

increasing mobility and the environmental conditions.71 The congestion tax is a fee or toll

that “applies to certain vehicles passing in and out of the inner city between 06:30-18:30 on

weekdays” (though some green cars are exempt from this), and it has been evaluated to both

directly and indirectly reduce air pollution in the inner city significantly.72 Another specific

form of a traffic-related economic instrument being deployed is the fossil fuel tax, which is a

specific form of an energy and carbon dioxide tax. While the design of the tax can be quite

complicated to describe in detail, the main points can be generally summarized as “a tax that

generally is extracted by volume”, and is extracted in proportion to the amount of carbon

dioxide emitted during combustion.73 Regarding subsidies that aim at reducing air pollution,

it can be noted that “since 2004 biofuels used for motor related engine-operation are exempt

from the fuel tax”.74Another central form of subsidy is a tax exemption for green cars.

Onwards from 1st of January 2011, owners of passenger cars that are either categorized as

emission-class “Euro 5 or Euro 6” or are electric/hybrid” are entitled to a five year vehicle-

tax exemption starting from the day the vehicle was first put into service.75

There are several distinct regulatory instruments in use on the area. To begin with, there are

regulations for both maximum allowed emission levels for new vehicles that are sold, as well

as regulations for maximum allowed emission levels for vehicles in general before they must

be put out of service. According to the Swedish Transport Agency (Transportverket), these

maximum allowed emission levels for new light passenger and commercial vehicles are

specified in regulation 715/2007/EC of the European Parliament and Council (with date of

effect from 2nd July 2007).76

71 Skatteutskottets betänkande 2006/07:SkU19

72 Steg på vägen 2012. s.95

73 Naturvårdsverket & Energimyndigheten, 2006. Ekonomiska styrmedel i miljöpolitiken - Rapport från

Naturvårdsverket och Energimyndigheten (ISBN: 91-620-5616-6). s.113

74 Ibid. s.113

75 Transportstyrelsen. Femårig skattebefrielse. (Retrieved 18/12-20) Link:

https://www.transportstyrelsen.se/sv/vagtrafik/Fordon/Fordonsskatt/Femarig-skattebefrielse/

76 The Official Journal of the European Union, 2007. - Regulation 715/2007/EC (Retrieved 20/12-20) Link: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=CELEX%3A32007R0715

28

In this regulation, it is stated that “manufacturers shall demonstrate that all new vehicles sold,

registered or put into service in the Community are type approved in accordance with this

Regulation”, where the regulation specifies the Euro 5 or Euro 6 emission-classes and their

limits as the cut-off point.77 Another regulatory instrument on-the-ground is the possibility

for municipalities to ban the use of studded tires on certain streets, where “decisions like

these have already been made in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Uppsala”.78 The government

has even granted the municipalities the power to implement these extended studded tire-bans

“to cover entire zones in urban areas”, although “a decision of an extended studded tire-ban is

yet to have been made in any municipality”.79

Informational instruments deployed involves informational campaigns such as

“Klimatkampanjen”, that aimed at spreading information and increasing the knowledge of the

causes and consequences of climate change (in which traffic is an important contributor); as

well as more general forms of “communications” that supplement other forms of instruments

(such as regulatory ones) by “spreading knowledge” and “creating acceptance” among the

citizens.80

The main points of the traffic-related clean air policy up to 2011 is summarized in Table 3.a

below, fitted in accordance with our analytical framework in order to give a clear view of its

composition.

77 Ibid, Chapter 2 Article 4.1

78 Steg på vägen 2012 s.184

79 Ibid. s.184

80 Ibid. s.85, 101

29

Table 3a. Elements of Clean air policy related to pollution caused by traffic, 2011.

High Level Abstraction Programme Level Operationalization (Less Abstraction)

Specific On-the-Ground measures (Least Abstraction)

Policy Ends or Aims

GOALS

- Human health

- Environmental health

- Cultural heritage

- Economic development

OBJECTIVES

Reducing air pollution to the point that:

-Human health

-Biodiversity

-Cultural heritage

-Production of foodstuffs

is not harmed, and generally that the human impact on the climate does not become dangerous

SETTINGS

- Temperature goal: temperature increase of maximum 2°c in the long run

- Concentration goal:

greenhouse gas concentration to stabilize at 400ppm maximum in the long run

- Intermediate goal: greenhouse gas emissions to be 40% lower by year 2020 in relation to 1990

Policy Means or Tools

INSTRUMENT LOGIC

- Preference for efficient instruments

- Preferences for a mix coercive and non-coercive instruments

MECHANISMS

- Economic instruments

- Legislative and regulatory instruments

- Informational instruments

CALIBRATIONS

- Congestion tax

- Fossil fuel tax

- Tax exemption on biofuel

- Vehicle tax exemption of “green cars” and electric/hybrid vehicles (miljöbilar)

- Regulations of minimum requirements of emissions from newly sold vehicles.

-Regulations on use of studded tires in certain streets or zones in urban areas

-Informational campaigns & Communications

30

4.2 The dynamics of Clean Air Policy 2011-2019

Now that the clean air policy has been mapped out in detail up until 2011, the task remains to

study which policy elements have undergone change - be that through removal or alterations

of existing parts, or addition of new ones. This part will follow the same logic as the previous

section, where all three categories of the policy will be studied separately, starting with the

high level abstraction.

High level abstraction

If and how has the ideas governing the policy development changed through the years leading

up to 2019? In comparison to the 2012 report, it seems that the ideas governing policy

development have stayed much the same, with similar emphasis on human and environmental

health, as well as damage to cultural objects and economic development being central. In the

annual 2020 report “Miljömålen - Årlig uppföljning av Sveriges nationella miljömål 2020” it

is noted in relation to the idea of environmental health that “continued pollution in relation to

current development would lead to changes with very significant consequences for

ecosystems and biodiversity around the world”.81 Climate related risks regarding economic

development and health are also explicitly brought up in both the same and previous years

report, e.g “Health effects based on exposure to nitrogen dioxide and fine particles are

calculated to cost around 56 billion sek in 2015”; as well as cultural-historical objects being

impacted in a negative way through e.g “corrosion and smudging”.82

What about the norms guiding the general implementation preferences? Based on the types of

instruments still in use up to year 2019 (as will be covered below), there still does not seem to

exist a clear-cut preference for any certain overarching type of instrument. Both coercive and

non-coercive instruments seem to be deployed in a conjoint fashion, stemming from an

underlying logic of efficiency that still seems to be in place. Efficiency is emphasized in the

report multiple times - e.g “Efficient instruments and actions need to be introduced to

counteract exposure of chemical substances that humans and the environment are exposed

to”; “Among this years actions (to counter the house sectors unwanted consumption choices

81 Naturvårdsverket 2020. Miljömålen: Årlig uppföljning av Sveriges nationella miljömål 2020 - med fokus på

statliga insatser. (ISBN 978-91-620-6919-3). s.62

82 Ibid s.51, 62 & Frisk Luft 2019. s 8,.21

31

of e.g transport) there is a new political climate action-plan (klimatpolitisk handlingsplan)

that is requires to support the design of efficient instruments”.83

Programme level operationalization

Regarding what the policy formally aims to address, the objectives throughout the years have

been identical to those stated in the 2012 report. In the beginning of the clean air-section

(frisk luft) of each annually published report during the studied time span, the explicit aim

has been for the air “to be so clean that human health, animal and plant life, and cultural

heritage is not harmed” and for it to be “achieved within a generation”.84 The aim that the

levels of greenhouse gases “must stabilize to a level so that the human impact on the climate

system does not become dangerous” and that it must be reached in such a way and haste that

biodiversity is preserved and the production of foodstuffs is secured, and that other goals for

sustainable development is not jeopardized” are introductory paragraphs that are left

completely unchanged in every Environmental Quality Objectives-report throughout the time

span.85 Furthermore, there does not seem to exist any indication of change in specific types of

instruments being utilized to achieve these aims during this time period, leaving mechanisms-

element unchanged.

Specific on-the-ground measures

Regarding the specific on-the-ground requirements of the policy, some change can be noted.

Firstly, the temperature goal has undergone slight reformulation. According to the 2012

report, it was formulated by the Swedish Riksdag that “The goal is to limit the global mean

temperature increase to a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level in the

long run”.86 This formulation is consistent up until the 2018 report where it is stated that “To

limit the global mean temperature increase to far below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-

industrial levels and efforts to maintain the increase below 1,5 degrees Celsius above pre-

industrial levels”.87 This formulation has since then remained unchanged.

83 Miljömålen 2020. s.21,133

84 Ibid. s.70

85 Ibid. s.58,70

86 Steg på vägen 2012 s.172

87 Naturvårdsverket, 2018. Miljömålen: Årlig uppföljning av Sveriges nationella miljömål 2018 - med fokus på

statliga insatser. (ISBN 978-91-620-6833-2). s.44

32

The concentration goal has undergone a more significant change, in the 2018 report having

been completely taken out as one of the two explicitly formulated goals by the Swedish

riksdag (together with the above mentioned temperature goal).88 The concentration goal, with

its ambition to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration to 400ppm, does not seem to be

referred to or mentioned in any of the environmental quality objectives-reports beyond 2017,

indicating that it has been removed as a part of the settings-element of clean air policy.

During 2017 the Swedish Riksdag decided on new climate goals and a new climate-law

(klimatlag) in order for Sweden to reach a new stable and long term climate policy, which

resulted in five intermediary goals (etappmål) for reduction of greenhouse gas-emissions

compared to the single intermediary goal that prevailed up until then.89 While the

intermediary goal for the year 2020 has remained (40% lower emissions relative to 1990),

goals for the years 2030, 2040, 2045, as well as a specific goal for emissions from national

transports for 2030 has been added.90 It is stated that “greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden

should be at least 63% lower in 2030 compared to 1990”, in 2040 “at least 75% lower

compared to 1990”, and “in 2045 latest Sweden must not have any net emissions of

greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and thereafter achieve negative (net) emissions”.91 The

specific goal for emissions from national transports for 2030 states that “greenhouse gas

emissions from national transport (air transport excluded) must be 70% compared to 2010”,

although this can be seen as part of the broader 2030 goal.92

Now we move on to changes concerning the calibrations. The congestion tax has stayed

relatively the same (content wise) during the time period 2011-2019, however it has increased

in range. The most obvious example of this is the introduction of it in the central parts of

Göteborg on 1st of January 2013.93

88 Ibid.s.44

89 Ibid. s.63

90 Ibid. s.63-66

91 Ibid. s.63-66; Prop. 2019/20:65. En samlad politik för klimatet - klimatpolitisk handlingsplan. s.29f

92 Miljömålen 2018 s.65

93 Sveriges Riksdag. Trängselskatt i Göteborg SkU39. (Retrieved 23/12-20). Link:

https://www.riksdagen.se/sv/dokument-lagar/arende/betankande/inforande-av-trangselskatt-i-goteborg_GX01SkU39#:~:text=Riksdagen%20sa%20ja%20till%20att,V%C3%A4stl%C3%A4nken%2C%20och%20en%20ny%20%C3%A4lvf%C3%B6rbindelse.

33

Furthermore, smaller changes to the actual contents have also been planned such as

introducing an additional time period (6:00-6:29 am) and increasing the tax rates for some

time periods in Stockholm and also in expanding the tax to e.g cover travel through the

Marieholm-tunnel in Göteborg; although they are yet to be implemented.94 The fossil fuel tax

has undergone two changes throughout the time period, first in 2017 when a lump sum

addition (schabloniserat tillägg) was made, and in 2019 when it was reduced by two

percentage points.95

The tax relief on biofuel has remained unchanged during this time period, though notably the

required support by the EU-commission is scheduled to end after 2021.96 According to the

Swedish Transport Agency, the vehicle tax exemption on the 1st of January 2013 expanded

to cover camper-cars, light trucks and light buses in addition to passenger cars.97 Since the 1st

of July 2018, this tax exemption has ceased to be valid for new cars, although cars put into

service before this date are still eligible as long as they fulfill the requirements.98

The regulations for maximum allowed emission levels for new vehicles that are sold, and for

maximum allowed emission levels for vehicles in service, has remained the same during the

time period, with the EU regulation 715/2007/EC being the guiding legal document for this

purpose.99 The regulation banning the use of studded tires has not undergone any change,

with Stockholm, Göteborg and Uppsala still being the only cities that respective

municipalities have implemented this.

94 Prop. 2017/18:74. Förbättrad trängselskatt i Stockholm för förbättrad tillgänglighet och

transportinfrastruktur; Prop. 2019/20:30. Trängselskatt i Marieholmstunneln i Göteborg.

95 Regeringskansliet, “Sänkt skatt på drivmedel” (Retrieved 27/12 -20). Link:

https://www.regeringen.se/artiklar/2019/09/sankt-skatt-pa-drivmedel/

96 Regeringskansliet. Fortsatt skattebefrielse för rena och höginblandade drivmedel. (Retrieved 27/12-20). Link:

https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2020/10/fortsatt-skattebefrielse-for-rena-och-hoginblandade-biodrivmedel/#:~:text=Beslutet%20inneb%C3%A4r%20att%20rena%20och,g%C3%A4ller%20endast%20i%20ett%20%C3%A5r.

97 Transportstyrelsen. Femårig skattebefrielse. (Retrieved 27/12-20). Link:

https://www.transportstyrelsen.se/sv/vagtrafik/Fordon/Fordonsskatt/Femarig-skattebefrielse/

98 Ibid.

99 EUR-LEX 715/2007/EC. Link: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-

content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32007R0715

34

Concerning the informational instruments, it is mentioned in the 2020 environmental quality

objectives report that “the households and the public sectors consumption of (e.g) traffic has

a very negative impact on health and the environment… among this year's actions to increase

climate-smart consumption choices there are informational campaigns and communications

(among other things)”.100

The main points and changes of the road traffic-related clean air policy up to 2019 is

summarized in Table 3.b below, again fitted in accordance with our analytical framework in

order to give a clear view of its composition. Elements that have undergone changes will

either be supplemented by a green or red text, indicating if the change has been reductive or

additive, as well as the year of change.

Table 3.b. Elements of Clean air policy related to pollution caused by traffic, up to 2019.

High Level Abstraction

Programme Level Operationalization (Less Abstraction)

Specific On-the-Ground measures (Least Abstraction)

Policy Ends or Aims

GOALS

- Human health

- Environmental health

- Cultural heritage

- Economic development

OBJECTIVES

Reducing air pollution to the point that:

-Human health

-Biodiversity

-Cultural heritage

-Production of foodstuffs

is not harmed, and generally that the human impact on the climate does not become dangerous

SETTINGS

- Temperature goal: global mean temperature increases far below 2°c above pre-industrial levels, efforts to maintain under 1,5°c (more ambitious 2018)

- Concentration goal:

greenhouse gas concentration to stabilize at 400ppm maximum in the long run (removed 2018)

- Intermediate goals: greenhouse gas emissions to be:

40% lower by year 2020 in relation to 1990,

63% lower by year 2030 in relation to 1990,

75% lower by year 2040 in relation to 1990,

no net emissions by year 2045, thereafter

100 Miljömålen 2020. s.21

35

negative (net) emissions.

(Increased in 2017)

Policy Means or Tools

INSTRUMENT

LOGIC

- Preference for efficient instruments

- Preferences for a mix coercive and non-coercive instruments

MECHANISMS

- Economic instruments

- Legislative and regulatory instruments

- Informational instruments

CALIBRATIONS

- Congestion tax (expanded in range 2013)

- Fossil fuel tax

(Increased 2017)

(Decreased in 2019)

- Tax exemption on biofuel

- Vehicle tax exemption on “green cars” and electric/hybrid vehicles (miljöbilar)

(Expanded in 2013)

(Removed in 2018)

- Regulations of minimum requirements of emissions from newly sold vehicles. (unchanged)

-Regulations on use of studded tires in certain streets or zones in urban areas (unchanged)

-Informational campaigns & Communications (unchanged)

4.3 Analysis

Summarizing the dynamics of the clean air policy has undergone it is abundantly clear that

only the specific on-the-ground measures, that is the elements calibrations and settings, has

seen any notable change. A second observation that can be made is that the changes are

mostly concentrated to the years 2017-2019, which will be returned to later. What can be said

so far is that a descriptive assessment of how the Swedish clean air policy has changed during

the years 2011-2019 has been provided.

Furthermore, the changes to the settings and calibrations have been pulling in both

directions, with both reductions (such as the fossil fuel tax in 2019) and removals

(concentration goal in 2018); as well as expansions and increases (such as the congestion tax

in 2013 and the intermediate goals in 2017). Applying the second framework presented

earlier in this study (see Table 2.) discerning the mode of change (through tempo and

direction of change), this “pulling in both directions'' can be interpreted as an indication that

36

the direction of the above seen changes are not cumulative. Thus, when speaking specifically

about the “mode of change” of the specific element’s settings and calibrations, it must

therefore be reasonable to rule out the cumulative modes of change “classic” paradigmatic

and “progressive” incremental”.

This leaves the observed changes to the policy elements to either be classified as “faux”

paradigmatic or “classic” incremental, as the direction of change must be “in equilibrium”.

So, which one fits? Let us first recall the definitions of faux paradigmatic and classic

incremental that were presented earlier. Faux paradigmatic change is a rapid and

noncumulative change, that results in a significant deviation from the status quo only to move

back in to change rather quickly; while classic incremental change just is a slow and

noncumulative change.

In order to decide which one fits better, one must simply examine if any of the studied

elements of the policy has exhibited a pattern of temporary but significant deviation from the

status quo - and if not then the change must be of a classic incremental mode. In this case,

only the fossil fuel tax can be observed to follow a pattern reminiscent of the faux

paradigmatic, where it was first increased through a lump sum addition in 2017 only to be

decreased again in 2019. However, even though there was a deviation from the status quo,

once could question if the deviation really warrants being seen as significant, since it

concerned only a few percentage points.101 This also raises a question about problems of

definitional limits that can be seen as chronic to the study on policy change, in this specific

context - how much is “significant”?

All these things considered, the “mode of change” of the specific element’s settings and

calibrations in this study is likely most appropriately classified as classic incremental.

However, this does not answer what the pattern of change is for the clean air-policy studied

in its entirety. In this situation, we can utilize Hall’s logic of “first to third order changes”

brought up in the operationalization section and apply it in a fairly straightforward way. To

briefly recapitulate, changes in high levels of abstraction is seen as the hardest to come by, as

well being likely to in turn significantly alter programme level operationalization and specific

on-the ground-measures. Changes in these levels therefore imply paradigmatic policy

change, while changes in the other two levels of abstraction imply only incremental change.

101 Regeringskansliet “Sänkt skatt på drivmedel” Länk: https://www.regeringen.se/artiklar/2019/09/sankt-

skatt-pa-drivmedel/

37

In this case, because changes only have taken place at the lowest level of abstraction, it is

most reasonable to classify the clean air policy change during 2011-2019 as incremental.

4.4 Discussion

There exists a barrage of questions and touching points in this study that are qualified for

discussion, some of which there is no space to include. But a fruitful starting point can be to

ask the question: why were the results not in line with those expected by the punctuated

equilibrium theory? In other words, why did we not see a paradigmatic pattern of change

after the exogenous event (the paris agreement) as hypothesised? Three explanations can be

provided: (1) the paris agreement was not a suitable choice of exogenous event after all, (2)

the punctuated equilibrium theory cannot explain the policy change in this case, and (3)

serious reliability issues regarding measurement of policy change gives us an inadequate

picture of how and in which way the policy has actually changed during this time period.

Concerning the choice of the Paris agreement as an exogenous event, it was thought to be

suitable as it was argued to fulfil Kingdon’s criteria of what might be considered as one (and

which most PET-scholars have relied on). However, it was noted that the Paris agreement,

unlike exogenous events typically found in other studies, was missing a form of “suddenness”

or “surprise” given its predictable nature (many expected some form of international climate

agreement to be reached around that time). Perhaps it is more important than previously

thought for an exogenous event to contain this quality of being unanticipated or catching

citizens and policymakers off guard, much like a nuclear disaster or economic crisis. Or

maybe there is some other or additional important quality or context missing in Kingdon’s

idea of exogenous shocks, that all in all might warrant a definitional development of what the

core parts of an exogenous shocks really are. However, it is interesting to note that the

changes observed, although seen as incremental, predominantly have taken place after the

Paris agreement. This opens up a discussion if exogenous events, in contrast to Hall’s line of

thinking, can lead to exclusively incremental change (which is thought to be due to

endogenous factors). However, this potential discussion will not be dealt with here any

further.

The second reason for not getting the results expected could be due to the fact that the

punctuated equilibrium theory may simply not be able explain policy change in this particular

case. Consider that the presence of environmental policy in general (and clean air policy in

particular) around the agenda and public debate in recent years has been a commonplace,

especially in countries like Sweden. This may be an indication that the policy image and

38

policy venue might already have been juxtaposed favourably towards environmental policy.

Having an exogenous event take place such as the Paris agreement that can easily be

perceived as favourable to environmental policy making, in the context of an equilibrium that

is already favourable to environmental policy making, might lead to a “puncture” without a

shift in equilibrium. Put differently, the contexts of policy monopolies in relation to

exogenous events might matter for the possibility of the PET to provide a sound explanation.

Another hypothesis is that the result might be a product of chance, as it is theorized that

exogenous events only increase the likelihood of punctures and positive feedback to take

place and is not strictly deterministic.

Lastly, the result could, at least partially, be a product of the operationalizational and

definitional issues that plague this study and the study of policy change more generally. Note

that this also impacts the descriptive mapping of clean air policy change related to the first

research question, and not just the second research question.

To begin with, the framework proposed by Cashore & Howlett for measuring a policy

through its six elements has according to the author rather severe definitional issues when it

comes to how these six elements individually should be understood, as well as the differences

between them. Though some examples and short descriptions of what might fit in each

category were presented in the two respective articles that deal with the theory, e.g

“environmental protection or economic development” in goals and “preferred levels of

harvesting” in settings; much discretion was left to the researcher to navigate and interpret.

While discretion doesn’t necessarily have to be bad in studies like this, the experience of the

author is that in this case it affects the reliability of the results to the point where

comparability with other studies using the same framework can be problematic. What can

also be problematic is that it can lead to situations where it is unclear whether some piece of

information should be included as part of a specific policy element or not, which can have a

direct effect on the analysis of the results. If it is unclear what Cashore & Howlett more

specifically meant with “general types of ideas that govern policy development” (goals) and

thereby puts the individual researcher on the fence whether to include a certain piece of

information, it can have a direct consequence of either interpreting the policy change as

paradigmatic or incremental.

This leads in to an additional definitional problem, which is chronic to the study of policy

change more generally and has also been somewhat highlighted previously in the litterature:

39

that concepts of paradigmatic and incremental change have been “under-specified entities”102

As previously mentioned, while the second framework of this study has been utilized to

somewhat relieve itself of this issue by taking into account two more modes of change than

the classic binary paradigmatic/incremental; the biggest issue remains of exactly how much

change is needed for a change to stop being incremental and instead be perceived as

paradigmatic. This wasn’t as problematic as it could’ve been for this study, since the results

pointed in a very clear and intuitive way towards incremental change.

But for any similar study locating themselves in the no man’s land between incremental and

paradigmatic change, this issue becomes increasingly pronounced and hard to deal with.

102 Cashore & Howlett, 2009. s.40

40

Conclusions To recapitulate, this study had three explicit purposes. Firstly, it was to heed the policy

change-heavyweight Frank M. Baumgartner’s invitation to complement the field of policy

change with further intensive analysis. Secondly, it was to apply an improved theoretical

framework (Cashore & Howlett’s framework) in an attempt to give a more valid and nuanced

description of the phenomenon of policy change compared to previous research. The third

and final purpose was to relate the findings to one of the dominant theories of policy change,

the punctuated equilibrium theory, in order to provide a contribution on the explanatory

capacity of the theory. While it is true that the more descriptive nature of this study means

that it does not bear the sort of power to disprove or confirm the PET, relating the results to

the theory has acted as a good starting point for studying policy change as well as opening up

for future discussion on why the change “changed like it did”.

Has the purposes of this study been achieved? By providing an answer to the first research

“In which ways has Swedish clean air policy changed or not changed over time?” the first

and second purpose is deemed to be. The answer to this question can be summarized as: The

clean air policy change over the years 2011-2019 can best be described as incremental, with

observed changes exclusively taking place in the policy elements settings and calibrations

and predominantly during the years 2017-2019.

By providing an answer to the second research question “To what extent can the change or

absence of the Swedish clean air policy be linked to expectations derived from the punctuated

equilibrium theory?”, the third purpose of this study is achieved. The expectations derived

from this theory was that a paradigmatic pattern of policy change should follow from the

exogenous event (the Paris agreement). What the results have shown is that incremental

change was the prevailing pattern of policy change even following the entry of an exogenous

event, therefore contradicting the above-mentioned theoretical expectations.

During the inception of this study, it was thought by the author that the biggest contribution it

would provide, with the help of above utilized frameworks, was an improved and more

accurate image of policy change. While this certainly can be said to have been provided, at

least to a certain extent; perhaps the largest contribution this study offers to the research area

is to highlight the definitional and operationalizational issues that plague both the

measurement of policy change as well as determining the mode or degree of that change.

41

It is the perception of the author that scholars invested in the study of policy dynamics to a

greater extent must overcome these hurdles if it is to progress in a more fruitful fashion in the

future.

42

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