Policy Analysis

CambodiaBayesiaNetworks

<basics>

who?

Mario Guajardo

Yai Oladokun Laleye

not really…

based on: Policy Analysis for the Tonle Sap Lake, Cambodia: A

Bayesian Network Model Approach

Authors: Olli Varis & Marko Keskinen

Helsinki University of Technology

(aka Findland’s MIT)

where?

what?

Tonlé Sap lake

lake = golden egg hen

why?

lake fishing = over 50% of GDP

largest freshwater lake

in South East Asia

lake water for 55 million

lake wetlands = rice

goal

lake waters should be used to

provide economic well-being to

the people, without

compromising social equity and

environmental sustainability

(balance)

solution

policy

challenge

finding

a balanced policy

a balanced policy to

maximize win-win between

competing stakeholders

social

social

economic

social

economic

environmental

<model>

approach

bayesian network

why?

complex interconnections

how?

model architecture

scenarios

impact

tendencieslink

matrix

under the hood

environment

society

sector policies

natural resources

economy

goals

environmentfloods

droughts

toxic spillage

oil spillage

soil degradation

biodiversity decline

suspended soil

sedimentation

environment

society

sector policies

natural resources

economy

goals

societyfood security

human development

empowerment

gender equity

social cohesion

formal governance

rural push

urban pull

environment

society

sector policies

natural resources

economy

goals

environment

society

sector policies

natural

resources

economy

goals

environment

society

sector policies

natural resources

economy

goals

environment

society

sector policies

natural resources

economy

goals

<experiments>

four scenarios

favors economic growth

favors

environmental sustainability

favors poverty reduction

integrated scenario

<results>

favors economic growth

but with high degree

of uncertainty

favors environmental

sustainability

but ignores villages

and their development

favors social impact

gives fairly good results

integrated scenario

gave best results

<conclusion>

many scenarios created

gave insight to policy makers

model found balanced policy

it is now up to Cambodia to implement it…