Poli 103A: California Politics Lecture 1 March 29, 2005.
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Transcript of Poli 103A: California Politics Lecture 1 March 29, 2005.
Poli 103A: California Politics
Lecture 1March 29, 2005
Course Introduction and Progressivism I: The Recall
Today’s version of Progressive institutions •1911 device with ambiguous criteria: corruption
vs. dissatisfaction. Second oldest profession.
Campaigning in a complex environment•Wholesale vs. retail politics. Media in megastate
Effects on Policy?•Clear reaction against Gray Davis, car tax, and
deregulation. Vision for the future not clear.
Course Introduction and Progressivism I: The Recall
What this course is not about
What this course is about
Course plan and logistics
What This Course is Not About
How to be a good citizen.
•Preface. “We believe that increased participation by an informed citizenry in the politics of California is vitally needed…”
Power and Politics in California,
John H. Culver and John C. Syer, 1980
What This Course is Not About
What This Course is Not About
What This Course is Not About
What This Course is Not About
An Introduction to American Politics
•Begins with the Constitution
•Under a fixed set of rules, leaders react to an ever more complex society
•Consensus on the basic features of our political system and what there is to learn
What This Course Is About What you need to know in Sacramento
Mixture of political science research and political journalism
A state where the rules constantly change and no consensus tells us what to teach you
Course Plan and Logistics Part I: Political Institutions in Flux Part II: The Politics of Diversity Part III: Perspectives on Policy
Theme A: Cycles in California Politics Theme B: What Makes CA Different? Theme C: How Do We Know What We
Know?
Course Plan and Logistics Midterm on May 3: 25% of grade
Paper due on May 26: 30% of grade•Initiative campaign plan or policy analysis
Final on June 9: 40% of grade
“Section” attendance and participation: 5% of grade
Course Plan and Logistics Short biographies to begin each class:
•Extra credit on midterm
•Required on final
Last half hour is discussion section:•You must attend four over the quarter
•Be ready to discuss the readings
The Progressive Legacy I: Recall
The Purpose Behind the Process
All About Arnold•Getting on the Ballot
•Campaign Finance
•Analyzing the Results
Popular Feedback on Populism
The Purpose Behind the Process
A 1911 constitutional amendment pushed (along with initiative and referendum) by Gov. Hiram Johnson, the recall:•Was justified as a way to attack the graft
and corruption of the time.
•Does not specify the type of misdeed that it punishes; a “recallable offense” is whatever a majority says it is.
The Purpose Behind the Process:Wall of Shame
Targets of Progressive reformers:•Sen. Marshall Black (R-Santa Clara,1913)
•Sen. Edwin Grant (D-San Franciso, 1914)
Casualties of the Speakership fight:•Assm. Paul Horcher (R-Los Angeles, 1995)
•Assm. Doris Allen (R-Orange, 1995)
The Purpose Behind the Process
To recall a statewide officer:•Gather signatures of registered voters
equal in number to 12% of the last vote for that office.
•In five counties, gather signatures equal in number to 1% of that county’s vote.
To recall a legislator:•Equal in number to 20% of district vote.
The Purpose Behind the Process:The Dual Ballot
Yes or no vote on whether to recall the official in question.
Takes a majority (50% + 1 vote) to win.
All qualified replacement candidates appear on the same ballot.
Only takes a plurality (most votes) to win.
The Purpose Behind the Process
The 135 replacement candidates got on the ballot with 65 signatures and $3500.
All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot
Recall petitions have been circulated for every governor, but none had qualified till Davis.
From Feb. 5th to April 24th, recall proponents collected about 100,000 signatures.
They needed to collect 897,156 valid signatures within 160 days.
All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot
Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) decided to lend his considerable financial resources to the race on April 24th, and eventually gave $3 million.
“I don’t think we took it at all seriously until Darrell Issa gave the money.” – Davis advisor Steve Smith.
July: 841,000 voluntary signatures, 1,319,000 through gatherers and mail.
All About Arnold:Campaign Finance
Unlike federal races, California’s campaigns used to have no limits on the size of contributions.
Proposition 34 limited contributions to $21,200. Loopholes:•No limits on “independent expenditures.”
•Candidates allowed to shift funds raised in old days to new campaigns
All About Arnold:Campaign Finance
Davis’ advantage: •Technically, he was opposing an initiative,
which cannot be corrupted, so contributions unlimited.
Schwarzenegger’s advantage:•Who needs contributions when you’re
rich? Gave himself $10 million and declared that he would arrive in Sacramento not owing anyone.
All About Arnold:$80 Million in 77 Days
Candidate Total Contributions
Gray Davis $17 million
Arnold Schwarzenegger $21.9 million
Cruz Bustamante $12.4 million
Independent Expend. $24.1 million
All About Arnold:Analyzing the Results
Recall Ballot 61.2% turnout. “Yes” won with
55.4% of the vote. About a quarter of
Democrats, 45% of Latinos, and 48% of union members supported recall.
Replacement Ballot Arnold won with
48.6% of the vote, a 17% margin of victory.
He attracted 23% of Democrats and 31% of Latinos.
All About Arnold: Analyzing the ResultsDemocrats Did Not Abandon Gray
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OverallSupport forRecall (%)
DemocraticSupport forRecall (%)
RepublicanSupport forRecall (%)
All About Arnold:Party Registration
Blue: More than 54% Democratic Registration
White: 44%-54% Democratic
Red: Less than 44% Democratic Registration
All About Arnold:Support for the Recall
Blue: Less than 50% Support for Recalling Gray Davis
White: 50%-65% Support
Red: More than 65% Support for Recalling Gray Davis
All About Arnold:Turnout Shift Toward Republicans Was Temporary
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All About Arnold: Duverger’s Law Kicks In
Duverger’s Law: Because voters behave strategically, American-style races always come down to two parties/candidates.
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d Sch
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)
Tom M
cClin
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Peter
Mig
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amej
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Ariann
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Peter
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Oth
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ElectionResult
SeptemberTimes Poll
Popular Feedback on Populism
Public Policy Institute of California poll
Popular Feedback on Populism