Platts PVC 26 August 2015

This Weeks Highlights:

Asian EDC/VCM: EDC falls $15/mt in tandem with ethylene

Asian PVC: Falls $30-$50/mt

INDEX:

Platts International Prices 1

Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price 1

Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT) 1

Polymerupdate CIF India Prices 2

Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table 2

Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison 2

Currency Rates 3

Heard in PVC Market 3

Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis 4

Polymerupdate - PVC Market Supply Scenario 5

Platts Price Analysis Of PVC Chain Processing Margins 6

Crisil Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis 7

Point of Contact 9

Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright 9

Platts - About us & Copyright 9

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Week 34 August 26, 2015

ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 1

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PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)

Product Aug 19 (WK 33)

Aug 26 (WK 34)

Price Change on Week

India Crude basket: (USD/b) 48.00 42.56 - 05.44 Naphtha: (MOP West India) 414.78 344.58 - 70.20 EDC :

CFR Far East Asia 289-291 274-276 - 15 CFR South East Asia 319-321 304-306 - 15 VCM :

CFR Far East Asia 689-691 689-691 0

CFR South East Asia 729-731 719-721 - 10 PVC :

PVC Suspension CFR China 827-829 789-791 - 38 PVC Suspension CFR SEA 829-831 799-801 - 30 PVC Suspension CFR India 859-861 809-811 - 50 Specifications: Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to 30 days credit, basis CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou, Hong Kong); CFR South East Asia: Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok, Laem Chabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh). Platts prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication. India Crude Import Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%) MOP West India : Mean of Platts FOB West India naphtha export price

China Domestic (YUAN/MT EX-WORK) :

Ethylene Based 5715-5735 5715-5735 0

Carbide Based 5340-5360 5340-5360 0

POLYMERUPDATE

INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)

Product Aug 19 (WK 33) Aug 26 (WK 34) Price Change on Week

INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG

PVC Grade

Suspension 65.50 886 65.50 886 0

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/kg basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT) - Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors. - Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

PLATTS Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)

From: Middle East Middle EastTo: 25 100 MT > 100 MT East China 20 25 10 15South China 15 25 10 15India 45 50 30 40Southeast Asia 30 35 25 30NW Europe 55 65 50 60Turkey 50 70 40 60US Gulf 130 140 120 130Latin America 165 175 160 165

NOTES: Polymers refer to polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, ABS, and PVC. 1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from Jebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), Jubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait), Rabigh (Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized between these ports. 2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Jiangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports. 3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports. 4) India deliveries refer to products coming into Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports. 5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports. 6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be normalized to Antwerp. 7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming into Istanbul and Mersin ports. 8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf. 9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into mainports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.

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POLYMERUPDATE (CIF INDIA PRICES)

CIF INDIA BY ORIGIN (Nhava Sheva Port)

South Korea Thailand Taiwan

WK 33 WK 34 Price Change on Week



Aug 19 Aug 26 Aug 19 Aug 26 Aug 19 Aug 26

Suspension 860 830 - 30 850 820 - 30 860 830 - 30 Emulsion 1040 1040 0 -- -- -- -- 1050 1050 0 - All prices are in USD/MT CIF India (Nhava Sheva) - For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia : Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days. - Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors. - Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table Note: All prices are in INR/kg levels.

Product Mumbai Delhi Kolkata Bangalore Indore Chennai Ahmedabad Hyderabad

Ethylene Based PVC 73 - 74 74 - 75 76 - 77 75 - 75.5 75.5 - 76.5 75 - 75.5

(Incl. of VAT) 75 - 76 76 - 77

POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE)

PVC SUSPENSION K-67 w.e.f 13 August-2015

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL 67GER01 (Ex-Gandhar) 65500 886

RIL 67.01 (Ex-Hazira) 65500 886

RIL 57GER01 (Ex-Gandhar) 67500 914

RIL 57.11 (Ex-Hazira) 67500 914

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/MT basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT) - USD Price calculation: INR/MT Aprox. Clearing and Forwarding Charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT (For example: 82330 2500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

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Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :

Countries Currency Rates Countries Currency Rates

Indian Rupees (INR) 66.17 Japan Yen (JPY) 119.66

Pakistan Rupees (PKR) 103.95 Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR) 14,097.92

China Yuan Renminb (CNY) 6.41 Malaysia Ringgits (MYR) 4.21

Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 77.72 Singapore Dollars (SGD) 1.40

Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR) 134.08 South Korea Won (KRW) 1187.95

Thailand Baht (THB) 35.50 Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR) 3.75

Taiwan New Dollars (TWD) 32.58 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) 3.67

Heard in PVC MARKET

Platts:

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $830/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 1000 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $840/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $810/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $850/mt CFR India, L/C 90, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $730/mt FAS Houston, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $800/mt CFR India, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $780/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $800/mt CFR Southeast Asia, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $700-730/mt FAS Houston, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $770-780/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard traded at $790/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: September loading cargoes heard offered at $800/mt CFR China, L/C at sight, 100-500 mt

Asian PVC: Domestic Chinese Ethylene-based PVC trade levels heard at Yuan 5,700-5,750/mt

Asian PVC: Domestic Chinese Carbide-based PVC trade levels heard at Yuan 5,300-5,400/mt

Polymerupdate: 25-8-2015: Taiwan producer offers PVC Suspension at $ 830/mt in India (CIF Nhava

Sheva port basis)

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PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Asian EDC/VCM: EDC falls $15/mt in tandem with ethylene

- Spot EDC demand steady

- VCM market quiet as buyers hold back

EDC: Asian ethylene dichloride was assessed down $15/mt week on week tracking falling feedstock ethylene prices. The CFR Far East Asia marker was assessed at $275/mt Thursday and the CFR Southeast Asia marker at $305/mt. No deals were heard concluded this week. Discussion was active for October-arrival US Gulf-origin EDC, with buying interest around $220/mt CFR Far East Asia against offers at $250-$260/mt CFR. In Southeast Asia, activity was thin, with no trades confirmed. Downstream users were seeking cheaper EDC to help offset weak PVC prices in Asia. The Asian ethylene market remained on a downtrend this week on the back of falling crude oil prices. The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene marker was assessed at $919/mt Thursday, down $60/mt week on week, and the CFR Southeast Asia marker at $895/mt, down $9/mt. Given an ethylene conversion factor of 0.29, the breakeven cost for EDC makers was $267/mt in Northeast Asia and $260/mt in Southeast Asia.

VCM: Asian vinyl chloride monomer prices were flat to lower this week amid weak PVC prices in Asia. The CFR Far East Asia marker was assessed flat week on week at $690/mt and the CFR Southeast Asia marker down $10/mt at $720/mt. Activity was thin amid tight spot availability in the region. VCM spot negotiations typically occur after deals have been concluded for monthly PVC offers, which were only released this week. Offers for September VCM cargoes were heard this week around $700/mt CFR Far East Asia, with no trades confirmed. In Southeast Asia, a September bid was heard below $700/mt CFR against offers at $730/mt CFR. No trades were confirmed. PVC prices were assessed down $22-$35/mt at $828/mt CFR China, $830/mt CFR Southeast Asia and $860/mt CFR India Wednesday.

RATIONALE: EDC: Assessed down $15/mt week on week at $275/mt CFR Far East Asia Thursday. October-arrival deepsea cargoes from the US Gulf were heard offered at $250-$260/mt CFR Far East Asia against buying intentions around $220/mt CFR. The CFR Southeast Asia marker was assessed down $15/mt at $305/mt in tandem with the Far East Asia market.

VCM: Assessed flat week on week at $690/mt CFR Far East Asia Thursday. Offers for September cargoes were heard around $700/mt CFR Far East Asia, with no trades confirmed. The CFR Southeast Asia marker was assessed down $10/mt at $720/mt. A September bid was heard below $700/mt CFR Southeast Asia against offers at $730/mt CFR. No trades were confirmed.

Asian PVC: Falls $30-$50/mt

- Offers lowered amid weak demand - Thin activity across Asia

The CFR India PVC marker fell $50/mt week on week to be assessed at $810/mt Wednesday, after Taiwan'sFormosa Plastics responded to thin trading by lowering its September-loading offers into India by $30/mt to$840/mt CFR India. Offers on a CFR China and FOB Taiwan basis were also lowered by $30/mt to $800/mt CFRChina and $770/mt FOB Taiwan, respectively, in line with market expectations of more competitive PVC priceson the back of falling production costs. Offers in India were heard this week at $830-$840/mt, against bidsbelow $800/mt. A trade was heard for a September-loading cargo at $810/mt CFR India. Details were sketchy.No offers were heard for Chinese carbide-based PVC. Trading was thin amid bearish sentiments, several sellerssaid. "Buyers are waiting in anticipation of lower PVC offers in line with declining feedstock costs," a sourcesaid. Demand around Asia continued to be feeble for August amid the ongoing monsoons in India, deepeningeconomic slowdown in China and weakening currencies across Southeast Asia. The CFR China marker wasassessed at $790/mt, down $38/mt week on week. Deepsea offers from the US Gulf were into China at $700-$730/mt FAS Houston this week, with no trades confirmed. The CFR Southeast Asia marker was assessed at$800/mt Wednesday, down $30/mt week on week, with trades heard around that level. Both domestic Chinaethylene-based PVC and carbide- based PVC were assessed flat week on week at Yuan 5,725/mt and Yuan5,350 /mt, respectively. Upstream -- pulled down by the weakness in crude and naphtha -- spot ethylene pricesdeclined by around $96/mt week on week, with the CFR Northeast Asia assessed at $849/mt Wednesday. Indata out this week, China imported 49,463 mt of PVC in July, down 12.57% from June. PVC exports from Chinarose to 62,185 mt in July, a 19.41% increase from June, but down 55.62% on the year, according to the latestGeneral Administration of Customs data.

RATIONALE:

The CFR India marker was assessed at $810/mt Wednesday, down $50/mt week on week. Offers in India wereheard this week at $830-$840/mt, against bids below $800/mt. A trade was heard for a September-loadingcargo at $810/mt CFR India, Details were sketchy. The CFR China marker was assessed at $790/mt, down$38/mt week on week. Deepsea offers from US Gulf into China were heard at $700-$730/mt FAS Houston thisweek, or around $770-$800/mt CFR China, with no trades confirmed. The CFR Southeast Asia marker wasassessed at $800/mt Wednesday, down $30/mt week on week, with trades heard around that level. Bothdomestic China ethylene-based PVC and carbide-based PVC were assessed flat at Yuan 5,725/mt and Yuan5,350/mt, respectively, unchanged week on week.

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POLYMERUPDATE - PVC MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO

VCM plant restarted by Taiwan VCM Taiwan VCM resumed operations at vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) plant. The plant resumed operation in early August 2015. The plant was shut on July 9, 2015 for maintenance turnaround. The company is currently operating its plant at normal production capacity levels. Located in Lin Yuan, Taiwan, the VCM plant has a capacity of 420,000 mt/year. PVC plant to be shut by Taiyo Vinyl for maintenance Taiyo Vinyl is likely to shut its polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plant. The plant is planned to be shut next week. The plant is expected to remain shut for around one month. Located in Chiba, Japan, the PVC plant has a production capacity of 100,000 mt/year.

E-PVC plant likely to be taken off-stream by Inner Mongolia Yidong Inner Mongolia Yidong Group Dongxing Chemical is in plans to shut an emulsion-polyvinyl chloride (E-PVC) plant for maintenance turnaround. The plant is likely to be taken off-stream in November 2015. Located at Erdos in Inner Mongolia, China, the plant has a production capacity of 100,000 mt/year.

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PLATTS Price Analysis of PVC Chain Processing Margins

Naphtha to Ethylene Naphtha to PVC

Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing ethylene from naphtha using a conversion cost of $350/mt

Premium or discount of CFR FE Asia PVC prices over naphtha

Ethylene to PVC

PVC : VCM Ratio

Premium or discount of CFR FE Asia PVC prices compared to ethylene CFR FE Asia PVC prices as a ratio to VCM

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CRISIL Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

Overview: Counting the missing drops by DRIP As we approach the end of this monsoon, the IMD appears set to be vindicated on its 12% rain deficiency call. From a surplus in June, rainfall was down to 6% below the long period average as of July 31, falling further to 10% by August 16. Distribution too has been short of normal, in terms of both time and geography.Not all is bad though, and progress on sowing offers hope. Bountiful rains in June in several parts of India ensured sowing till August 14 was 3% higher than last year and only 1% below normal. The good news is that the area under pulses - currently witnessing high inflation - is 12% more than last year and also more than the normal. The next 45 days are crucial for ensuring reasonable yields for crops that have been sown as more than half of the arable land in India is unirrigated and therefore remains vulnerable to monsoon shocks. The mention of shock and vulnerability brings us to CRISIL's DRIP (Deficient Rainfall Impact Parameter) which captures the interaction between vulnerability and weather shocks. DRIP, developed in the drought year of 2002, helps identify crops and regions hurt more by weak rains. On the basis of rainfall till August 12, DRIP highlights Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Odisha as the most adversely impacted states this year. Coarse cereals, soyabean, tur, maize and cotton are crops hit the most by monsoon deficiency this year. We maintain our overall GDP growth forecast of 7.4% for fiscal 2016 with agriculture growing at a sub-trend rate of 1.5% on a weak base of last fiscal. IMD expects the second half of the monsoon season to beworse than the first. Any positive surprise on rainfall over the next 45 days can create some upside to ourgrowth outlook. IIP: Indicates industry growth on the positive As expected, IIP growth picked up to 3.8% in June from 2.5% (revised down from 2.7%) in May. Overall growth was supported by manufacturing activity (at 4.6% versus 2.0% in May). Other components, both mining & quarrying (-0.3%) and electricity (1.3%), recorded softer growth. Month-on-month SA (seasonally-adjusted based on Tramo method) growth, though, contracted 0.2% in June while the manufacturing sector signalled positive streaks - rising 0.2% on m-o-m basis. Manufacturing index gained steam with a pick-up in consumer-oriented sectors such as textiles (1.1%), tobacco products (8.7%), wearing apparel (27.6%), wood products (21%), and furniture. On the other hand, industrial- and investment-oriented sectors recorded slightly lower growth at 3.3% versus 4.2% in May.

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Inflation drops in July Consumer price inflation (CPI) fell to 3.8% in July from 5.4% in June. The sharp fall was mainly due to a strong base effect. In July last year, a surge in fruits and vegetable prices had pushed the overall CPI index up 2.1% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 7.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). If not for this category, inflation this July would have fallen by only 60 bps. The decline in inflation came from the food price index, while fuel inflation also softened due to lower global oil (-48% y-o-y) and commodity prices (steel was down 31% and aluminium was down 16%). The food price index fell to 2.2% in July from 5.5% in June. Within the food index, fruits & vegetables inflation was -5.3%, but other commodities including cereals and most protein-related items - milk, eggs, meat and fish and, oils and fats - too saw a decline. The only commodity where prices remained firm was pulses - where inflation rose to 22.9% in July from 22.2% in June. Core inflation fell to 4.8% in July, down 40 bps over June - its first decline in five months. Much of this fall came from lower inflation in personal care effects, education and transport and communication segments. Excluding the transport and communication segments, which includes petrol and diesel prices, core inflation was down about 10 bps.

Rupee strengthens slightly in July The rupee gained against most major currencies on a monthly average basis in July. It averaged 63.6/$, slightly strongerthan 63.9/$ in June. Against the euro and the pound, it was up 2.2% and 0.3%, respectively.The local currency, however, remained choppy during the month. In the first three weeks of July, it averaged 63.5/$, andweakened to 64/$ in the last week. Supporting a strong rupee in the first half were positive developments in Greece,which reduced jitters over a possible default in debt obligations and led to investors purchasing emerging market assets.Towards the end of the month, rupee lost some ground due to persistent dollar demand from importers and banks.

About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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Platts PVC 26 August 2015

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