Planul de mobilitate urbană durabilă 2016-2030 Regiunea ... · Planul de mobilitate urbană...
Transcript of Planul de mobilitate urbană durabilă 2016-2030 Regiunea ... · Planul de mobilitate urbană...
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Planul de mobilitate urbană durabilă 2016-2030
Regiunea București – Ilfov
Raport program de instruire utilizare Model Cerere de Transport
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Planul de Mobilitate Urbană Durabilă pentru regiunea București-Ilfov
Modelul Cererii de Transport –Prima sesiune de instruire: Notiuni de baza MCT si metode de
planificare a tranporturilor
Aspecte Generale Program Instruire
Saptamana 1 – 26-29/10 – Inspre MCT Bucuresti – Issa & Ofir
Dimineata Dupa-masa Trainer
26/10 MCT (Ofir) TDM Bucuresti 4-step (Issa) Issa & Ofir
27/10 Input MCT (Ofir) Exemple de bune practici Telaviv(Issa)
Issa & Ofir
29/10 Rulare model PMUD Bucuresti A-Z
Rulare model PMUD Bucuresti model A-Z
Issa
Saptamana 2 – 24-26 November –Eyal
24/11 GIS general (Eyal) Coduri – T-Cad (Eyal) Eyal
25/11 Studii (Eyal) Scenarii aplicate MCT (Eyal) Eyal
26/11 Imbunatatire MCT (Eyal) Extragere informatii MCT (Eyal)
Eyal
*MCT= Modelul Cererii de Transport
Pregatire detaliata pentru prima sesiune: 26-29/10/2015
Pregatire (ROM) - 6-7 licente de TransCad (ROM), proiector, materiale suport ,prezentari Power Point,
Pregatire (BERD) – Lansare invitatii
Pregatire (Universitate) –Un laborator de informatica cu 10 calculatoare si proiector conectat la
calculatorul de prezentare
Sesiune Scopul sesiunii Trainer Metoda Suport
26/10 Luni
1: 10:00-13:00 Planificarea transporturilor, politici si MCT
Ofir Presentation PPT
2: 14:30-17:30 Aspecte teoretice despre modelele in 4 pasi
Issa Prezentare si exemple model Bucuresti
PPT + IR2
27/10 Marti
1: 10:00-13:00 Bucuresti-Ilfov MCT 4 PASI
Ofir Exemplificare cu modelul real Telaviv
Raport sondaje
2: 14:30-17:30 Exemple de bune practici ale MCT-urilor
Issa Model in timp real Telaviv
Da
29/10 Joi
1: 09:30-12:00 Rulare MCT A-Z Issa Practica Nu
2: 13:00-15:00 Rulare MCT A-Z Issa Practica Da
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Preparing SUMP for Bucharest and IlfovSUMP Conference 2015
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Why do Bucharest-Ilfov Need a SUMP?
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
It is the most congested city in Europe in 2014According to TomTom worldwide traffic survey
Second to Moscow and Istanbul but much before Warsaw, Rome, Paris or Stockholm), with evening congestion worse than morning, especially Friday)
It is among top 20 cities worldwide recorded sharp decline in population from 1990
According to UN study covering more than 600 cities worldwide
Based on current trends, expected population in 2025 will be ~4% less than in 1990
Without SUMP traffic conditions will only get worse
(Bucharest Moscow)
SUMP can improve traffic and has a potential to attract much more
young people to live and work permanently in Bucharest
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Bucharest vs. Copenhagen
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
There are many worldwide evidences regarding the connection of
SUMP and population growth
Even in USD – Portland is a good example
0
0.5
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2.5
Copenhagen Bucharest
Population 1990-2014
0%
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Bucharest Copenhagen
Congestion morning
Congestion index 2014
Co
nge
stio
n in
dex
%
Po
pu
lati
on
, Mill
ion
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Bucharest vs. Copenhagen
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
The common belief is that the major difference is the bicycle use.
But…..
0%
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Bucharest Copenhagen
Modal Share
Car PT Walk Cycle
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Bucharest vs. Other European Cities
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
2.73.1
3.64.2
0
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Bucharest-Ilfov Amsterdam Budapest(Central)
Paris
Trips per Person per Day
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Bucharest-Ilfov Mode Split by Trip Purpose
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Source: 2014 THS
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Bucharest-Ilfov Public Transport Passenger Review
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
26%
21% 21%
9%8%
6%5%
2%
26%
9%10%
5%
26%
10%
7% 7%
0%
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15%
20%
25%
30%
Ilfov Bucharest (RATB)
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Comparison of Strategies
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Area Copenhagen Bucharest
Land use TOD around radial rail lines No integration of land use & transport
Urbanization Pedestrinization of streets, constant promotion of street life (one big party)
Most of the streets’ ROW is allocated to cars, not enough pedestrian zones and poor sidewalks
Car restraint Rejection of massive freeway system
Most investments on roads
Parking policy
Reduce parking availability by 3% per year
Practically no restriction on car parking
Bicycle Full network, parking facilities, priority to bicycles in traffic
Practically no active promotion of cycling
Public Transport
Full integration, network of fully separated LRT complementing the metro lines
No integration, trams do not have dedicated ROW, tram do not complement metro
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How will SUMP Analyze Potential Strategies?
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
2015 AM Peak Auto Assignment 2030 AM Peak Auto Assignment
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How will SUMP Analyze Potential Strategies?
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
2015 AM Peak PT Assignment 2030 AM Peak PT Assignment
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How will SUMP Analyze Potential Strategies?
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Benefits
Costs
Financial Revenues
Time Saving
PollutionReduction
Saved Lives…
Investment in Infrastructure
Operational Expenses
Maintenance Expenses
Be
nef
its
Co
sts
Economic indicators for different
investment scenarios show which
alternative is the most efficient way
to spend public funds
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So What Should Bucharest do in order to Flourish?
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Short Term
Medium Term
Long Term
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Short Term- Must Haves
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Fare Policy Parking Policy Maintenance Gap
Institutional Restructuring
Pedestrian and Cycle
Safety
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Short Term- Integrated PT Fare Policy
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
1.54 1.52
1.08
0
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1
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METROREX RATB RATB - METROREX
Current Transfer Rate within Single TripSource: SUMP Surveys
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Short Term- Integrated PT Fare Policy
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Adopt Universal Best Practice
Geographical Fare Policy-Zonal/Distance based
90 min. Transfer within Single Trip
Single Ticket for all Modes
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Short Term- Parking Policy in Bucharest City Center
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Making choices on available public space and
quality of life
The space of one parking place
53% of drivers in Bucharest park on the road for free! 68% of drivers would pay 2 RON 56% of drivers would pay 5 RON
Potential parking fees = 650M-1.2B RON Annually
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Short Term- Sharing Space, Pedestrian and Cycling
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Medium Term- Hierarchal Transport System
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Urban Mass Rapid TransitMedium distance, fast, medium & high capacityServices within the city
Metro
LRT BRT
Local TransportConnect peoplefrom allneighborhoods
Bus Priority
City Trolley bus
HubsBike Rent
system
Suburban ServicesLong distance, high speed
Suburb BRT
Suburban Bus
Park and Ride
Main line railway
Airport
NETW
OR
K
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Medium Term- Urban Mass Rapid Transit Development
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Medium Term- Local Bus Priority Development
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Medium Term- Network Connectivity
LRT through Piaţa Unirii
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Double Track South & East of Piaţa Unirii
Tram/LRT Connectable Network through Piaţa Unirii in the Future
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Medium Term- Network Connectivity
Multi Modal Hubs
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
87%
9%
2%
11%
3%
27% 26% 26%
2% 4%
0%
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60%
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100%
Walking Car (AsPassenger)
Bus Tram Metro Trolley bus Maxi Taxi Taxi Train
Transfer in Ilfov Transfer in Bucharest
80% transfer of Ilfov PT Passengers Transfer in
Bucharest!!!
Ilfov-Bucharest PT TransferSource: SUMP Surveys
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Medium Term- Network ConnectivityMulti Modal Hubs
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Long Term- Additional Urban Mass Rapid Transit
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Long Term- Improve Sub-Urban Rail Performance
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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One Way to Measure Success of SUMP
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
0%
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100%
Copenhagen Bucharest-Ilfov 2015 Bucharest-Ilfov 2030
Modal Share
Car PT Walk Cycle
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Sustainable Urban Mobility
TRAINING SESSION 1B
Transportation planning and TDM
BUCHAREST SUMP E B R D – MDRAP ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
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Issues to discuss 2
Bucharest Mobility Plan – Travel Demand Model E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
1. Defining Policies
2. Use of Travel-Demand-Model
3. Transport planning community
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Part 1: Defining Policies
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Supported Policies 4
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Mass Rapid Transit Development and bus lane
Public Transport Fare Scheme
Demand Management (Parking / Fuel / Toll /LEZ)
PT network optimization (operational)
Land use development (ToD, Sprawling)
Traffic management (Turns, signaling, bypasses)
Road development
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Sustainable approach and Integration
SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORT APPROACH: Holistic Multi-Modal approach (“Door-To-Door) “Move passenger, NOT vehicles” SUT prioritization (MRT, PT, NMT, Traffic Management)
Politically acceptable and feasible Financially sustainable Cultural and image aspects TOP DOWN and BOTTOM UP
5
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Integration-Integration-Integration
INTER-MODALITY
INTRA-MODALITY
FARE & INFORMATION
LAND USE –TRANSPORT
EU-NATIONAL-DISTRICT-MUNI-
COMMUNITYCONSISTENT
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Policies to be considered 6
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
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7
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Our approach
Vision
Goals & Objectives
No Intervention
Short Term(2017-2020)
Immediate(2015-2016)
Future(2030+)
Pilot project Action plan
Combined Effort Our Task
Recommendations
Surveys
Data Analysis
Strategies Planning
Full Intervention Model
Scenario appraisalDesign & Investment Plan
Long Term(2021-2030)
Conceptual design
Training & Capacity Building
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Part 2: Use of Travel-Demand-Model
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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The Travel Demand Model (TDM)
A statistical tools that replicate real-time spatialbehavior of people and commodities
TDM have two main parts:
SUPPLY: The Networks and Level of service
DEMAND: The actual trips of people and goods
Unique for each modeling area due to different supply(networks) and demand (Behavior and demographics)
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
TDM are calibrated to current situation but are developed to forecast FUTURE scenarios
4
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Standard requirements from TDM
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Scenario appraisal
Network optimiza
tion
Benefit computa
tion
Land use integrati
on
Multi-Modal
platform including Freight
Emission plug-in
Traffic impact
assessment
Micro-Modelin
g
Selected package should have the above built-in capacity and should be user friendly
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TDM Input 11
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
• Land use & Socio-Demographic
• Networks – Roads, Metro/Tram/Trolley Routes, Cycling paths, Bus stops
• Pattern of travel and behavior & People’s preferences
• Public Transport Operation- Routes, Stops, Frequency
• Urban Development Plan for Target Years
A Sound TDM Requires a Wide Data Collection Effort Including Various Types of Surveys
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The Travel Demand Model (TDM)
Supply Data
Road Network
Transit Network
NMT Network
Demand Data
Population and employment
Travel Habits
Freight needsPT fare and Service
Land Use
Bucharest Mobility Plan – Travel Demand Model E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Good movement infrastructure
2014 Calibration
2014 Scenarios
2030 Scenarios
POLICIES and PROJECTS
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PLATFORM for TDM
The software platform is JUST one more tool in the toolbox ofthe planner, along with: common sense (VERY important!),quick manual routines and professional experience
However, the software should meet minimal requirements: Good computational performance on large problems
Good visualization and reporting
Build-in GIS and relational database capabilities
Well documented and easy to understand operation
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Data and the model can work under various platforms. The question is which one is most suitable and user friendly. In any case model can be transformed from one platform to another
easily
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14Cost-Benefit Analysis Computation
Decision makers require knowledge of the economic / social /
environmental benefits and costs which can be evaluated using TDM
International investors require a solid demand forecasting tool to assess
project cash flow and rate of return.
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15Measure benefits (time, cost, comfort, etc)
TDM enables us to measure quickly
system and personal Benefits from any
proposed project or for different
investment scenarios
Mode Shift
Benefits
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16Pollutant estimation for different scenarios
By taking model outputs of traffic flow and congestion, and calculating
against emission benchmarks, total emissions for a given scenario can be
estimated
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17PT Network optimization and planning
Model can appraise different PT networks and
compare service and Operational to yield optimal
PT networks
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18Urban Development feedback
The impact of Urban Development can be
analyzed using the TDM to measure the capacity of
networks to sustain urban growth
Bucharest Mobility Plan – Travel Demand Model E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
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19Traffic Impact Analysis
DiffCAP+BASECharacteristics (PEAK)
+7583,5662,808Volume on link (Abay)
+0.7515.8215.07Speed on link (Abay)
-2152,3482,563Volume on near link (Tole-bi)
+0.6312.9612.33Speed on link (Tole-bi)
-2,297716,878719,175Total VKMT
-47636,35336,829Total VHT
Traffic Impact Analysis allows for calculating the impact of
new facilities. TransCAD’snewest version also includes a processor for analyzing traffic impacts of multiple changes in
the network and demand.
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20Local traffic analysis (Micro-Simulation)
Traffic issues can be resolved using Micro-Modeling Technique.
TransModeler uses TransCad output to simulate traffic flow and service
Bucharest Mobility Plan – Travel Demand Model E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Example of Micro simulation
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Powerful freight modeling
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Strong PT capacity and high level display
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Integrated Land-Use transportation planning tool 23
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Full interface with Micro-simulation and traffic
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TransCad World-wide (2013)
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Become a leading software in US, South America, Asia-Pacific and gaining popularity in the EU
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Model shell
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Model shell
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
High level representation and analysis of data that will be developed uniquely for Bucharest on the top of the standard T-Cad package by consultant
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Part 3: TDM Inputs and Data
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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DATA for TDM
TDM absorbs great amount of data, that may come fromvarious sources: Census : socio-economic, “land use”, economic indicators
Networks, fares matrix
Surveys (travel habits, count, on board, GPS, interview, Ods, etc)
Operational (from PT operators for instance)
Master plan (for future networks and land use)
Parking, traffic management
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Model works in an aggregated fashion (ZONE BASED) so most of the data needs to fit to the zone system
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Zone system for Bucharest
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Developing model has 3 times more zones than previous one and include both Ilfov and beyond. This will provide much more accurate modeling framework
and will refer to the city as a Metropolitian
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Surveys undergoing – with over 70 students
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Innovative data collection and Surveys 32
Bucharest Mobility plan E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
Tablet Field survey Computerized Travel-Habit Surrey
GPS tracking Trip-builder
Real-Time Data analysis, QA and
QC
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TDM Input- Surveys 33
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Travel Habits Survey
• 2014 THS with SP
• 2008 THS
4 Origin-Destination Surveys
On Board passenger Counts
Goods Movement
Traffic Counts
GPS Survey
Commuters’ Survey
Google Traffic Speed
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Network - Data 34
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Field Source Purpose
Type Field Survey Calculation of capacity
Status Project Inventory
Scenarios
Separation Field Survey Capacity calculation
Max Speed National Standards
Calculation of trip times
Lanes Field Survey Calculation of capacity
Parking Field Survey Calculation of impedence
Traffic Control Field Survey Calculation of impedence
PT Infrastructure
Field Survey Delineate presence of PT infrastructure on a link
Field Source Purpose
Type Consultant Coding
Differentiate between PTmodes
IntervalsAM
OfficialOperator Timetables
Time between vehicle trips
Length ConsultantMapping
Calculation of ride times
Frequency Consultant Calculation
Vehicle trips per hour
Fleet RATB
VKMT/VHT GIS
Road network Public Transport Scheme
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Part 4: TDM Structure
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Trip Generation – Based on trip productions from origins to destinations to and from transportation analysis zones (TAZ).
364 step model
Trip Distribution – Based on trip generation, define the destinations for each origin. This typically uses a gravity model.
Mode Choice – The various modes are selected, which may include auto, bus, light rail, heavy rail, metro, walking, bicycling and other modes.
Assignment – Trips are assigned to specific paths (roads or routes) and an output is given to account for congestion, pollution, traffic flow, levels of service, etc.
Bucharest Mobility Plan – Travel Demand Model E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
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4 Step TDM 37
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
1
2
3
4
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TDM Step 1- Trip Generation 38
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Production= From where People ComeHome, Other than Home
Attraction= Where do People Go: Work, School, Leisure
𝑇𝑟𝑖𝑝 𝐺𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑏𝑦 𝑍𝑜𝑛𝑒= 𝑓 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠
• Population by zone• Area of Traffic Analysis Zone• Gender Distribution• Workforce Distribution• Age Distribution• Education Level Distribution• Household size distribution• Dwelling size distribution
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TDM Step 2- Trip Distribution 39
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57
No
rmal
ized
Tri
p F
rict
ion
Fac
tors
of
GA
MM
A
Fun
ctio
n
Friction Factors vs. Impedance for Trip Purpose
HBW_FF HBE_FF HBO_FF NHB_FF
Trip PurposeTrip Time
(Min.) Model
Trip Time (Min.)
Survey
HBW 14.8 13.9
HBE 10.5 10.01
HBO 10.7 9.2
NHB 12.8 10.2
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TDM Step 3- Mode Split 40
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Consider: How do these factors affect your decision?• Travel time• Fare• Wait-time• Convenience• Auto ownership• Availability (is a given mode even an option?)
The Probability of Choosing a Specific Mode is Often a Function of:Number of cars in the household, Car availability for the individual,
Gender, Whether the person works
Mode Choice
Driver Passenger TransitNon-
Motorized
Choice HBW HBE HBO NHB
DRIVER 49.7% 5.3% 17.9% 39.0%
PASSENGER 8.4% 8.6% 5.7% 7.3%
PT 33.2% 54.9% 21.6% 31.7%
NMT 8.1% 29.6% 54.1% 20.8%
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Mode Choice Sensitivity 41
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
0.25
0.38 0.25
0.28
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TDM Step 4- Assignment 42
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Vehicle Over Capacity- AM Peak BucharestPublic Transport Average Travel Time
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Network – Volume Delay Function 43
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Initial Capacity = Lanes * Lane
Capacity * Separation Factor *
Parking Factor * Traffic Control
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Calibration 44
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Developed Excel Macro that compiles data mining from Google Traffic database
Day
Hour
Mode
Typical Travel Time
Route Average Time
To Unirii- Google 24.74
To Unirii- Model 24.48
From Unirii- Google 21.91
From Unirii- Model 19.41
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Potential for Change – Reducing Car Dependency 45
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Source: 2014 THS
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Potential for Change – Encouraging Transit Usage 46
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Source: 2014 THS
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Sustainable Urban Mobility
TRAINING SESSION 1B
Transportation planning and TDM
BUCHAREST SUMP E B R D – MDRAP ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
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Issues to discuss 2
Bucharest Mobility Plan – Travel Demand Model E B R D - M D R A P ROM Transportation Engineering & AVENSA
1. Introduction to Transport Models.
1.1 What is TDM.
1.2 Importance of TDM.
1.3 Classical vs. Non-Classical Models.
2. Four Step Models
2.1 Generation Models.
2.2 Distribution Models.
2.3 Mode Split Model.
2.4 Assignment Model.
3. Complexity vs. Efficiency, Model Pitfalls.
4. Recommended Reading.
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Part 1: Introduction to Transport Demand Models
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What is a Travel Demand Model? 4
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• This term is used to refer to a series of mathematical equations that are used to represent how choices are made when people travel.
• Decisions of Travel are affected by many factors such as family situations, characteristics of the person making the trip, and the choices (destination, route and mode) available for the trip.
What is a Travel Demand Model? 5
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Importance of TDM 6
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Can be Summarized in Two Points:
• Determining Future Demand for Travel: Transportation Investments, Sustainable Transport Alternatives.
• Policy Evaluation: Toll roads, Parking price, parking lots, HOV lanes, …etc.
Importance of TDM 7
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Importance of TDM 8
Can be viewed as a Tool to Match Demand and Supply
TransportationInfrastructure:Roads, Transit
Change in Socio-Economic Factors,Economic DevelopmentMigration
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Importance of TDM 9
To Summarize:
• Transport Models are Statistical and Mathematical Tools.
• Transport Demand Models are the answer to Scenarios of “What if”:- Policies: Congestion Pricing, New Transit Fares, …etc.- Change in Population: Migration, Increase in Population.- Change in Socio-Economic Variable: Income, Car Ownership.- Change in Employment and Land-Use: New Work Zones.
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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Classical vs. Non-Classical TDM 10
Classical Model:
• Four-Step Models.- Simplified Model- Follows a Simple Common Sense.- Most Widely Used.- Simple tools of Estimation and
Maintenance of the Model.- Provides answers to most of
Demand and Supply Questions.
Non-Classical Model:
• Activity Based Models.- Complex Model- Behavioral Based- Very Sensitive to Policy- Less Widely Used- More Dynamic Demand
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Classical Models 4 Step Models 11
Trip Generation Model
Trip Distribution Model
Mode Choice Model
Assignment Model
Trips Generated/Attracted from/to a Zone to ALL…
Trips Distributed in the Space forEach Zone
Choice is Made between Modes of ChoiceAuto, Non-Motorized, for each Zone Pair
Trips are Assigned on the NetworkCar/Transit/Non-Motorized
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Non-Classical 4 – Activity Based 12
7:00
7:107:18
8:00
17:0017:3020:30
19:00
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Type of Model to Choose 13
Complexity vs. Simplicity:- Simple Models are more stable.- More experience in 4 Step Models.- Sensitive Enough to Policy.
Practically:- Data Availability.- Model Cost in Terms of Time and Money
If you cannot explain it Simply, you do not understand it Well.
Everything Should be made as simple as possible, but not
simpler.
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•Part 2: Four Step Models
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14
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation EngineeringSustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Four Step Models 15
Trip Generation Model
Trip Distribution Model
Mode Choice Model
Assignment Model
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
• How Many Trips Does Each Zone Produce for EachTrip Purpose
TAZ1RESIDENTIAL
TAZ3
PRODUCTIONS ATTRACTIONS
STEP 1: Trip Generation 16
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
• Regression Models:
Productions = f (Socio-Economic Characteristics, Zonal Characteristics)
Ex. HH size, income, work status, age group, … etc.
Attractions = f(Zonal Work Activity, Land Use,…etc)
Ex. Work Space, Shopping Centers,…etc
STEP 1: Trip Generation 17
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 1: Trip Generation – Bucharest Model 18
HBW - PRODUCTIONS Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
Age_20-24 .271 .098 .062 2.75 .006
Work_Employed .695 .017 .926 40.93 .000
Example: Simple Linear Regression Model for Home-Based Work Trips - Bucharest
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 1: Trip Generation – Result 19
ATTRACTIONSPRODUCTIONSZONE ID
08501
5307302
50203
63004
005
Residential Zone
Mixed Land Use
Small Zone
Industrial Zone
Empty Zone?
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Matches origins with destinations
TAZ1TAZ3
SMALL INDUSTRY
TAZ2BIG
INDUSTRY
Work
TAZ4MALL
70%
30%
STEP 2: Trip Distribution 20
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 2: Trip Distribution 21
Most Widely Used: Gravity Model.
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 2: Trip Distribution 22
• Gravity Model
• Tij = Ti
• Tij = trips from zone i to zone j
• Ti = total trips originating at zone i
• Aj = attraction factor at j
• Ax = attraction factor at any zone x
• Cij = travel friction from i to j expressed as a generalized cost function
• Cix = travel friction from i to any zone x expressed as a generalized cost function
• a = friction exponent or restraining influence
Sum (Ax / Cix)a
Aj / Cija
You can consider this as theprobability spatial distribution
P(Tj)
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 2: Trip Distribution 23
4321TAZ
T14T13T12T111
T24T23T22T212
T34T33T32T313
T44T43T42T414
Result: A Matrix for Each Trip Purpose
A4A3A2A1ATTRACTIONS
PRODUCTIONS
P1
P2
P3
P4
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 2: Trip Distribution – Bucharest Model 24
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
No
rmal
ize
d T
rip
Fri
ctio
n F
acto
rs o
f G
AM
MA
Fu
nct
ion
Friction Factos vs. Impedence for Trip Purpose
HBW_FF
HBE_FF
HBO_FF
NHB_FF
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 2: Trip Distribution – Bucharest Model 25
Trip Length Distribution
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f Tr
ips
Time Category
HBW Trips in AM Period
MODEL-PERCENT
SURVEY-PERCENT
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 3: Mode Split 26
TAZ1 TAZ3Work
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
• Depends on:• Purpose of Trip: Work, Education,…etc.
• Socio-Economic Factors: Income, Age,…etc.
• Zonal Factors: Accessibility of Mode, Availability of Mode,…etc.
STEP 3: Mode Split 27
• Estimation:
Multinomial or Nested Logit
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 3: Mode Split – Logit Model 28
UCAR UPUBLIC TRANSIT Unon-Motorized
UCAR = a0 + a1 * Travel Time + a2 * Fuel Cost + …
UPUBLIC TRANSIT = a0 + a1 * Transit Time + a2 * Transit Fare + …
Unon-Motorized = a1 * Walk Time
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STEP 3: Mode Split – Logit Model 29
• Estimation:
Why Logit Model?
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 3: Mode Split – Logit Model 30
• Probability Calculation:
Probability(a)=exp(𝑈𝑎)
𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑙 exp(𝑈)
• Ex.:
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 3: Mode Split – Bucharest Model 31
Mode Choice
Driver Passenger TransitNon-
Motorized
Model Structure: Multinomial Logit Model
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 3: Mode Split – Bucharest Model 32
DRIVER50%
PASSENGER8%
TRANSIT33%
NMT8%
NA1%
HBW A.M. PeakDRIVER5%
PASSENGER9%
TRANSIT55%
NMT30%
NA1% HBE A.M. Peak
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 3: Mode Split – Bucharest Model 33
Utility Parameters of Bucharest Model (A.M. Peak.Work Purpose)
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Assignment 34
• Assignment is the Route of Choice from each zone per Model.
• Input:- DEMAND: Origin-Destination Trips Per
Modeof Trip.
- SUPPLY: Auto and Transit Network.
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Assignment – Auto Assignment 35
• Auto Assignment:• Auto Demand.
• Auto Network.
• Capacity and Free Flow Time Calculation.
• Incalculable Number of Routes.
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Assignment – Auto Assignment 36
Auto Assignment Algorithm:USER EQUILIBRUIM
TAZ1 TAZ4
ROUTE a
ROUTE b
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Assignment – Auto Assignment 37
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Assignment – Auto Assignment 38
Bureau of Public Roads Function of Travel Time
𝑡 = 𝑡0 1 + 𝛼𝑣
𝑐
𝛽
T = travel time (minute)
T0 = free flow travel time (minute)
v = traffic volume (passenger car unit/hour)
c = practical capacity (passenger car unit/hour)
α, β = parameters
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STEP 4: Assignment – Road Network 39
Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
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STEP 4: Assignment – Assignment Result 2030 AM 40
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STEP 4: Assignment – Bucharest Validation 41
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Transit Assignment 42
• Transit Assignment:• Transit Mode.
• Transit Network.
• Transit Routes (Lines)
• Transit Stops.
• Transit Boarding and Alighting Weights.
• Transit Demand by Mode.
• Fares Matrix.
• Previously Determined Number of Alternative Routes.
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Transit Assignment 43
Access Egress
Wait Time
Train Time
Transfer Time
Bus Time
Time Components of Transit Skims
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Transit Assignment 44
Path Finder Algorithm:
ASSUMPTIONS:
- One Path Method.- Similar to Optimal Strategies Method.- Passenger will take first transit line which will get them to their destination in a reasonable amount of time.- Transfers will be used if and only if the transfer will reduce the Total Trip Time.
- HyptherPaths: A set of all the Lines that will be used.
- Addition: Fares are taken into consideration.
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Transit Assignment 45
Metro StationsAnd Coverage accordingTo Population
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
STEP 4: Transit Assignment 46
Bucharest –Ilfov BusLines
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
47
•Part 3: Model Usage, Complexity, Pitfalls and Recommended Readings
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
Model Pitfalls 48
1. Model are Just Tools, a means to an End, and not the End.
2. Scenarios Should be Compared to Each Other, not Used Alone:Policy vs. Do nothingex. Rail vs. Keeping Busses
Using Congestion Pricing vs. NullLight Rail vs. Busses
3. Documentation:- Assumptions, SHOULD be documented.
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Complexity vs. Efficiency 49
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Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans for Growth Poles in Romania- Bucharest-Ilfov Agglomeration AVENSA ROM Transportation Engineering
50Complexity vs. Efficiency
Models Should be Consistent and Efficient
An Explicable Model is far Better than a Complex one
Models Should be Simple, Explicable and Easy to Useto Evaluate Policies
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Recommended Readings 51
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