Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West

Asia (TA 7274)Peter J. Hayes, Senior Climate Change

Specialist, ADB (CWRD)phayes@adb.org

Mark Allington, Managing DirectorICF International

mallington@icfi.com

Wind Energy Status in Asia:

2nd. ADB Quantum Leap in Wind Conference (Asia Clean Energy

Forum 2011), Manila, 20 June 2011

Genesis of wind resource map effortGenesis of wind resource map effort

TA7274 Enabling Climate TA7274 Enabling Climate Change Interventions in Change Interventions in Central & West AsiaCentral & West Asia

Region: Highly vulnerability Region: Highly vulnerability to CC, high abatement opsto CC, high abatement ops

Need for Vulnerability & RE Need for Vulnerability & RE (solar & wind) resource (solar & wind) resource mapsmaps

Formulation of high Formulation of high resolution wind resource resolution wind resource maps (10 months)maps (10 months)

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TA 7274 map coverageTA 7274 map coverage

• AfghanistanAfghanistan

• ArmeniaArmenia

• AzerbaijanAzerbaijan

• GeorgiaGeorgia

• KazakhstanKazakhstan

• KyrgyzstanKyrgyzstan

• PakistanPakistan

• TajikistanTajikistan

• TurkmenistanTurkmenistan

• UzbekistanUzbekistan

Why Map Wind Why Map Wind OpportunitiesOpportunities??

Allows investors to assess the energy Allows investors to assess the energy yield, scale of investment needed and yield, scale of investment needed and possible returns, at a range of power possible returns, at a range of power purchase tariffs, across a geographical purchase tariffs, across a geographical areaarea

Allows comparison of the relative Allows comparison of the relative economic viability of different locationseconomic viability of different locations

Facilitates dialogue on what needs to Facilitates dialogue on what needs to change to attract investmentchange to attract investment

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Assessment of Renewable Assessment of Renewable EnergyEnergy Potential Potential within within TA 7274TA 7274

Wind, photovoltaics, Wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solarconcentrating solar

Ten CWA countriesTen CWA countries

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Example: Kazakhstan wind

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Wind theoretical resourceWind theoretical resource

Wind power density and energy yield (source: Wind power density and energy yield (source: NREL)NREL)

Average annual wind speed class m/2

Wind power density MW/km2

Load factor

<6 2 19.41%

6-7 4 22.83%

7-8 7 30.00%

8-9 10 36.53%

>9 14 47.95%

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Average annual wind speed GIS data at 100m hub height, grid square size ~10km2 (2 arc-minutes)

Kazakhstan wind – theoretical resourceKazakhstan wind – theoretical resource

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Wind ecological resource calculationWind ecological resource calculation

Weighted exclusion factors applied for:Weighted exclusion factors applied for: Airports/runway alignments, railroads, urban areasAirports/runway alignments, railroads, urban areas

National borders (5km buffer)National borders (5km buffer)

Bird migration pathwaysBird migration pathways

Areas >20km away from roads (for construction access)Areas >20km away from roads (for construction access)

Seismic danger areasSeismic danger areas

Areas with elevation >3500m or slopes >33%Areas with elevation >3500m or slopes >33%

All environmentally protected areasAll environmentally protected areas

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Kazakhstan wind – ecological resourceKazakhstan wind – ecological resource

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Wind economic resource Wind economic resource calculationcalculation

Capital costs (capex)Capital costs (capex) $2,500/kW$2,500/kW Grid connection costs:Grid connection costs: $55,000/km$55,000/km Operational lifetime:Operational lifetime: 25 years25 years Nearest electricity grid:Nearest electricity grid: 200 ha urban200 ha urban

OthersOthers Straight line depreciation period:Straight line depreciation period: 20 years20 years Income tax rate:Income tax rate: 20%20% Operating/maintenance costs:Operating/maintenance costs: 2% capex2% capex Discount rate:Discount rate: 8% or 12%8% or 12% Power purchase tariff USD/MWh:Power purchase tariff USD/MWh: variedvaried

Grid square assumed economically viable at a given tariff / Grid square assumed economically viable at a given tariff / discount rate combination if Net Present Value is positive after discount rate combination if Net Present Value is positive after operational lifetimeoperational lifetime

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Kazakhstan – infrastructure and ADB project locationsKazakhstan – infrastructure and ADB project locations

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Kazakhstan wind – economically Kazakhstan wind – economically viable resourceviable resource at 12% discount at 12% discount raterate

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Kazakhstan wind: energy yield Kazakhstan wind: energy yield versus tariff at different discount versus tariff at different discount

ratesrates

USD/MWh power purchase tariff (25 year lifetime)

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Kazakhstan wind: energy yield Kazakhstan wind: energy yield versus tariff at 12% discount rateversus tariff at 12% discount rate

10.4 GW

USD/MWh power purchase tariff (25 year lifetime)

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Kazakhzstan wind – Kazakhzstan wind – best sitesbest sites

X_COORD Y_COORD

Distance to nearest 35 kv distribution line in km

Grid square area km2

economic resource MW

economic resource GWh/yr

81.950 46.017 10.4 9.526 133 56081.917 46.050 11.2 9.520 133 56081.983 45.983 11.3 9.532 133 56081.950 45.983 12.8 9.532 133 56081.883 46.083 13.4 9.515 133 55981.983 45.950 14.4 9.538 134 56181.950 45.950 15.8 9.538 134 56182.017 45.917 17.0 9.543 134 56181.917 45.950 17.3 9.538 134 56181.983 45.917 17.8 9.543 134 56181.950 45.917 18.9 9.543 134 56181.883 45.950 19.0 9.538 134 561

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Limitations Limitations

This method can guide where pre-feasibility This method can guide where pre-feasibility study work is likely to be worthwhilestudy work is likely to be worthwhile

However it does not replace site-specific, However it does not replace site-specific, technical and economic investigations and technical and economic investigations and costingcosting

Accuracy of wind speed estimates is Accuracy of wind speed estimates is around +/-10%around +/-10%

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GIS Visualization & Decision-GIS Visualization & Decision-Making Tool: DemonstrationMaking Tool: Demonstration

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Planning Tool for Policy-Makers: GIS-based wind resource mapping in Central & West

Asia (TA 7274)Peter J. Hayes, Senior Climate Change

Specialist, ADB (CWRD)phayes@adb.org

Mark Allington, Managing DirectorICF International

mallington@icfi.com

Wind Energy Status in Asia:

2nd. ADB Quantum Leap in Wind Conference (Asia Clean Energy

Forum 2011), Manila, 20 June 2011