Forsvaretsforskningsinstitutt

PLANNING SITUATIONS- a general approach to scenario

development -

Iver Johansen

Norwegian Defence Research Establishment

Forsvaretsforskningsinstitutt

FOUR PROBLEMS

Jamming by scenarios Flawed scenario selection Scenarios as predictions Scenario officialism

Forsvaretsforskningsinstitutt

PLANNING SITUATIONS AND SCENARIOS

X

X

X

X

X

X

XX

X

Planning situations:- General types of threats and challenges

Scenarios:- Specific points within the “scenario space”

PI PII PIII ……………… Pn

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PLANNING SITUATIONS- PARAMETERS -

Object of security:– Norway – “The rest of the world”

Type of actor– Non-state actors– State actors– Russia

Type of conflict

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CONFLICT TYPOLOGY

INTENSITY

SCOPE

•Low intensity conflicts•International crises

•Sabotage•Small-scale terrorist attacks•Incidents

•War between states•War within states

•Large-scale terrorist attacks•Limited attacks

High

High

Low

Low

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PLANNING SITUATIONS: PARAMETERS

PARAMETERS VALUES

Security object Norway Rest of the world

Type of actor Non-state actors state actors Russia

Intensity of conflict Low High

Scope of conflict Low High

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NATIONAL PLANNING SITUATIONS

INTENSITY

SCOPE

•Incidents•Low-level crises

•Limited attack•Missile attack•Raids

State actors/Russia

P1

P2Non-state actors

State actors/Russia

P3

P4Russia

High

High

Low

Low

•Terrorist attacks

•International crisis and war

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INTERNATIONAL PLANNING SITUATIONS

INTENSITY

SCOPE

•Organised crime

•Terrorist attacks•Sabotage•Riots

•War between states•War within states

•Large-scale terrorist attacks

•Limited attacks

High

High

Low

Low

Non-state actors

P5

Non-state actors/state actors/Russia

Non-state actors

State actors

P6