Planning Principles & Load Dispatching · Planning Principles & Load Dispatching Natthajak...
Transcript of Planning Principles & Load Dispatching · Planning Principles & Load Dispatching Natthajak...
Planning Principles & Load DispatchingNatthajak Chomsiridechanan
Medium-term Operation Planning SectionGeneration Operation Planning Department
Power System Control and Operation Division
[email protected] tel. 02-436-2183
IPP&SPP Seminar16 November 2015
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• Operation Planning Objectives• Operation Planning Criteria• Demand Forecasting• Outage Scheduling• Limitations• Generating Capacity & Energy• Emergency Preparations
Outline
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• Reliable supply of electricity– Adequacy– Security (N-1)
• Quality Standard- Voltage- Frequency
• Reasonable Production cost• Environment Awareness
Operation Planning Objectives
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• Long Term– Generation outage plan– Tariff calculation– Financial analysis & Budget– Fuel supply plan– Problem warning
• Medium Term– Energy resources planning for typical day and holiday season– Plant commissioning program Considerations– Determine Transmission Outage– Place secondary fuel orders in advance of desired delivery date
• Short Term– 48 periods plan for day ahead planning
Operation Planning Criteria
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• 1-5 Years (Monthly Basis)• Economics (GDP)• EPPO data; Residential, Business, Industrial Growth• Historical Data (PEA, MEA and direct sales)
• Monthly Energy from Long Term forecasting• 1-4 Months (Daily Basis)• Historical Data (Pattern)• Long Holidays and Festivals
• 1 Day (Half-Hour Basis)• 5 Region – CAC, NEC, SAC, NAC, MAC• Weather Forecasting• Historical Data (Pattern)
Demand ForecastingLong Term
Medium Term
Short Term
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Outage Scheduling• Light Load Days base on calendar year • Table of AP Weight base on marginal cost• Peak and Off-Peak in accordance with historical
load pattern
EGAT Noticed
• IPP 7 Years • SPP 3 Years
Rolling Outage Plan
• Monthly Outage (3 Months ahead)• Weekly Outage• Daily Availability Declaration / Prior Notice
Outage Notice
• 5 Years ahead• Generation plan considered together e.g. marginal
cost, gas shortage
Shutdown Schedule
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Outage SchedulingFully DispatchAvailability Payment WeightDay ahead
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160
Mon-Sat: Peak Mon-Sat: Off-peakSunday and Holiday
Long Holiday
Paym
ent A
vera
ge (%
)
Summer Rainy Winter 7
EGAT & IPP
Mechanism
Dispatch Plan
Outage SchedulingPartially DispatchPeak and Off-Peak notice (Capacity Payment)Month ahead
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
0:00
2:
00
4:00
6:
00
8:00
10
:00
12:0
0 14
:00
16:0
0 18
:00
20:0
0 22
:00
0:00
MW
Weekday - Summer Weekday - Winter
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
0:00
2:
00
4:00
6:
00
8:00
10
:00
12:0
0 14
:00
16:0
0 18
:00
20:0
0 22
:00
0:00
MW
Sunday - Summer Sunday - Winter 8
SPP
Mechanism
Dispatch Plan
Dispatching Limitations
Must Run Unit
• System Securities (N-1)
Must Take
• Purchase Contract• Fuel Supply Contract
Irrigation• EGAT’s Hydro Generation
Dispatchable
• Efficiency & Fuel Price
TransmissionSystem
Capability
Minimum take
BB, SK,SNR, VRK, RPB, LTK
Cost Rank
26%
25%
7%
42%
Ratio of Total Capacity
58%
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East Gas- Natural Gas Fields- Gas Separation Plant- LNG 760 MMSCFD (Up to 1000 MMSCFD in Q4 2016)
- Maximum Supply 1,300 MMSCFD- Wobbe Index 1160-1280 BTU/SCF
West Gas- Natural Gas Fields- Maximum Supply 1,260 MMSCFD- Heating Value >803 BTU/SCF- Partially Supply: Yadana+Yetagun or Yadana+Zawtika- Totally Shutdown in case of Yadana gas shortage
Limitation (Gas Supply)
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Limitation (Gas Pipeline)
South BKK
Wangnoi
Bang Pakong
EPEC
C1,2
RPCL
North BKK
C3
TECO
GPSCGlowIPP
Myanmar Gas
SPP Navanakorn, Rangsit U-Thai
NongSaeng
Gulf Power
RB
SB+NBWest < 459 MMSCFDMix < 609 MMSCFD
SPP Nakhon Sawan
WN+GPG+EPEC+GNS+GUT
< 904 MMSCFD
SPP Korat
RA#6-NB,SB Non-EGAT 25 MMSCFD
BVW1-RA#6Non-EGAT 81 MMSCFD
RA#6
Common HeaderEast Gas
SBE < 220 MMSCFD
“Gas Pipeline Configuration from 23 Sep 2015 Onward” 11
#1 #3 #2 #4
Generating Capacity & EnergyTotal Capacity 37,412 MW @Nov15
2015 Peak Demand 27,346 MW@14:02 hrs 11 Jun 2015
2015 Energy 181,879 GWh
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EGAT38.3%
IPP37.7%
SPP15.8%
Foreign8.2%
Energy by Owner (GWh)
EGAT IPP SPP Foreign (FIPP+TNB+EDL)
EGAT41.2%
IPP37.1%
SPP13.3%
Foreign8.5%
Capacity by Owner (MW)
EGAT IPP SPP Foreign (FIPP+TNB+EDL)
Generated Energy by Fuel
Gas66.76%
Coal20.11%
FO1.00%
DO0.07%
Hydro9.73%
Renew + Other2.32%
2014 Energy Generation and Purchase 177,580 GWh
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Gas Supply Shortage• Secondary Fuel
– Fuel Oil; 5-7 days inventory level – Diesel Oil; 3 days inventory level
• Fuel Oil Exercise– Dispatch/Plant request– 3 times/year/gas turbine
• Transportation from fuel depot to power plant– Oil Transportation planning
Emergency Preparations
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