Planning Forecasting Part (A)
Transcript of Planning Forecasting Part (A)
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Planning and Forecasting(Part A)
Eng. Ahmed Bakhsh
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Management Functions
Planning
Decision Making
Organizing
Controlling
Leading
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Chapter Objectives
Explain the importance of planning
Identify missions
Explain the roles of goals and objectives
Identify strategies
Define the different types of forecasting
Describe the Delphi Method
Define different approaches to forecasts
Discuss some strategies for managing technology
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It is probably the most important of theidentified managerial functions. It focuses
you on how best to achieve the desiredresults. Thus, without it organizing,leading, and controlling have littlepurpose.
Planning and Forecasting
Planning
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Planning Planning is the work done to predetermine a
course of action, in order to provide focusand direction for enhancing the efficiencyand effectiveness of the company
1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02
Product A
Concept B
Project C
Study D
Test E
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Planning
Provides method for identifying objectives
Design sequence of programs and activitiesto achieve objectives
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Planning
Planning is made necessary by rapid change of
(a) Technology ( web-based tools, broadband
communications options, mobile access),
(b) Environment (globalization, competition,
marketplace), and
(c) Organization (mergers & acquisitions, networks,
outsourcing and alliances)
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Effective Planning Plan to plan
People implementing plan should beinvolved in preparing plan
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Planning What must be done? Who will do it? How will it be done? When must it be done?
How much will it cost? What do we need to do it?
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Who should do the planning
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Planning Roles
Assist Superiors Ask for support from Subordinates Develop Active Plans
Time management Project and Programs Corporate know-how
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Planning
Operational Planning
Strategic Planning
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Operational Planning
Define tasks/events to beaccomplished with the leastamount of resources withinthe shortest time, to assurethat the company applies itsresources efficiently toachieve its short-term and
long-term goals
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Operational Planning Questions
What is the most efficient way of accomplishing a project/task with known
objectives (doing things right) ? How to link up with three best suppliers in
the marketplace for parts needed?
What are the operational guidelines for performing specific work?
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Strategic Planning Questions
What are the companys vision, mission and valuesystem?
What specific goals (profitability, market share, sales,technology leadership position, global penetration) toaccomplish by when, with what investment and whichtechnology?
Which new/improved product streams to offer bywhen (considering product life cycle)?
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Mission and Vision
Mission Why do we exist? Whom are we
serving? What do we do to
serve them?
Vision - CompanyAspiration
Market capital Business standing
Ranking in industrialsector
Market Share Others.
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Vision Example
Eastman Chemical Company
To Be the World's Preferred ChemicalCompany
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Vision Microsoft (1980s)
"A personal computer on every desk, andevery computer running Microsoft software."
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Mission Pals
To deliver excellence in food service while providing a menu focused on exceptional
quality.
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Mission Example
The mission of Southwest Airlines isdedication to the highest quality of
Customer Service delivered with a sense of warmth, friendliness, individual pride, andCompany Spirit.
http://www.southwest.com 9/9/05
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Tools for Strategic Planning
Market research SWOT analysis
Sensitivity analysis (what-if, scenarios, Monte Carlo)
External benchmarking Technology forecasting Product life cycle analysis
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Strategic Planning
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Planning and Forecasting
Strategic Planning:
CurrentState
Future
State
Needs strategic plans
l d
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Planning and Forecasting
Strategic Planning:
Develop work assignments based on organizational needs andobjectives.
Plans are agreed between manager and subordinate.
Objectives should be stretch objectives
Objectives should be quantifiable (increase income by 5%) or at leasttangible (written policy).
Needed resources should be determined and agreed to.
Plans should include employee development as well.
Plans are for a 6 month to 1 year time span.
Management by Objectives
Pl i d F i
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Planning and Forecasting
Some Planning Concepts
It is the continuing responsibility of each manager.
The higher managers rise the more time they spendon planning.
Ultimate responsibility lies with top and middlemanagement.
Plans must lead to action.
Responsibility for Planning:
Pl i d F i
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Planning and Forecasting
Some Planning Concepts
These are the assumptions under which thedeveloped plans are expected to be executed.
Assumptions are based on forecasts and trendsin market and technology.
When there is uncertainty, there is a need todevelop contingency plans.
Planning Premises: