Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project
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Transcript of Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project
Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project
Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of ScienceRussian Node of the Millennium Project
Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
2007 Minnesota, U.S.
Russian Node Report
July 2006- July 2007
DR. Nadezhda GaponenkoHead of Department, Center of Science
Development Study under the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Director, Russian Node of the Millennium Project, AC/UNU
ProjectsProjects Nanotechnology Foresight
Methodology Sectoral Innovation System in
Nanotech in Globalized Economy Foresight : Theoretical and
Methodological Foundation Nanoscience of Russia Innovation Policy for the Building
adoptive SIS in Nanotech Business Incubators in the National
System of Innovation European Scenarios for the GEO
UNEP Global Environmental Outlook (contribution)
Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of SciencesDirector, Russian Node of the Millennium Project
Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko2007 Minnesota, U.S.
Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
PublicationsPublications Nanotechnology : Foresight (ed. N. Gaponenko).
Economy & Law Press, Moscow, 2006, pp.265 Business Incubators in the National System of
Innovation (ed. N. Gaponenko). Economy & Law Press, Moscow, 2006, pp.235
1. Gaponenko N. “Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology”. Paper presented to the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision Making, September 2006
2. Gaponenko, N. Russian Nanotech Foresight Initiatives, The European Foresight Monitoring Network, 2006
3. Gaponenko, N. Nanoscience : Global & Regional Trends and National Initiatives. In “Science, Innovation and Education”, Parad Press, 2006, pp. 304-320
4. Gaponenko, N. Mission of Business Incubators in the National System of Innovation. In Innovations in Russia : Future and The Past, Moscow Univ. Press, 2006
5. Small Russian Future Studies Encyclopedia, Moscow, 2006 (contribution)
Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of SciencesDirector, Russian Node of the Millennium Project
Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko2007 Minnesota, U.S.
Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
PresentationsPresentations Gaponenko, N. Global Challenges and Growing
Uncertainties, Dialogue West –East, Integration and Development, Moscow, President Hotel, July, 2006
Gaponenko N. “Methods and Tools for Future Exploration and Decision Making in Multidisciplinary and Fast Developing Technological Domain: A Case of Nanotechnology”. International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis: Impact of FTA Approaches on Policy and Decision Making, September 2006
Gaponenko, N. Innovation Cycles : Towards the Third Generation of Business Incubators, Kondratieff Conference, Moscow, October, 2006
Gaponenko, N. Methodology for Nanotechnology Foresight, International Future Academy, March, 2007
Gaponenko, N. Global Challenges and Regional Strategies, Dialogue West –East, Integration and
Development, Delhi, January, 2007
Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of SciencesDirector, Russian Node of the Millennium Project
Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko2007 Minnesota, U.S.
Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Contribution to Contribution to Millennium Project & Millennium Project &
Nodes’ ActivityNodes’ ActivitySOFI – StudyReal- time DelphiLatin America Energy Delphi
Russian Node Report July 2006 – July 2007
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of SciencesDirector, Russian Node of the Millennium Project
Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko2007 Minnesota, U.S.
Planning Committee Meeting of the Millennium Project
Suggestions to MPSuggestions to MP
State of S&T Future Index– Outbreak of Technological
Foresight Programs around the world
– Scenarios are a part of Foresight Programs; coupled with Delphi
– Indicators for scenario quantification is a white sport
– Modeling is at the initial stageNanotechnology positive &
negative impact on economy, environment and human being
Global & Regional R&D Global & Regional R&D Expenditures’ TrendsExpenditures’ Trends
Phenomena of R&D expenditure trends in nano
– budget R&D expenditures on “nano”grow faster than budget appropriations on R&D
– Although nano-market is at the initial stage as far as both basic and applied research are concentrated in public sector corporate R&D expenditures grow faster than the public ones and in North America they exceed the public investments in nanotechnology
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2003 2004 2005 2006
Global public and private investments in nanotechnology,
2003-2006( U.S. $ million)
Total investments GovernmentCorporate Venture capital
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
NorthAmerica
Asia EU othercountries
Public and privat investments in nanotechnology, 2005 (U.S. $ billion)
GovernmentCorporateбюджетные инвестиции в нанонауку*
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Corporate R&D expenditures Corporate R&D expenditures trends in different regions of trends in different regions of
the worldthe world
Phenomena of R&D expenditure trends in nano– Corporate R&D
expenditures grow fast in all regions of the world
– Share of Asia and in particular “other countries” increases
Corporate R&D expenditures by the regions of the world, 2004,
(U.S. $ billion)
1,1
0,3
0,71,7
USA Japan EU orhet countries
Corporate R&D expenditures by the regions of the world, 2005
(U.S. $ billion)
1,9
0,7
1,7
0,85
USA Asia EU other countries
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Key Characteristics & Tends Key Characteristics & Tends in Russian Nanotech SISin Russian Nanotech SIS
Nanotech are in governmental priorities
R&D on nano -scale are supported by varios national, regional and departmental programs
Special role in civilian R&D financing play Ministry of Science and Education of the RF, Russian Academy of Sciences and in basic research - the Russian Foundation of Fundamental Studies.
Building public-private partnership is in the focus to stimulate private investment in nanotech
0 700 1400 2100
Public investments in Nanotechnology
(U.S.$ million; $1=1euro)
9,4
6,3
5,62
5,42
4,33
3,1
2,83
2,69
2,62
2,53
2,2
5,4
0 2 4 6 8 10
Taiwan
Japan
Korea
USA
Ireland
Israel
Germany
Singapore
France
NL
UK
Russia
Government nanotech funding per capita at purchasing-power parity, 2004; Russia-
2006(U.S.$)
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Key Characteristics & Tends Key Characteristics & Tends
in Russian Nanotechin Russian Nanotech SIS SIS
R&D organizations are concentrated in the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)(about 40%)
Presidium of the RAS supports 7 interdisciplinary programs and pushes this way the interdisciplinary networks
10% of R&D organizations refer to private sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Russian
Academy of
Sciences
Univ ersity Departmental
R&D
organizations
Priv ate sector
Break down of R&D Organizations by Sectors
0
100
200
300
Asia EU NorthAmerica
Russia
R&D organizations around the world
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Key Characteristics & Tends Key Characteristics & Tends
in Russian Nanotechin Russian Nanotech SIS SIS
One may observe the super concentration of R&D capacity in nano-materials
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Fig. 9. Break down of R&D organizations by nanofields (in %)
20
9
6
27
58
nanomaterials
nanoelectronics
nanoenergy
nanobio
nanometrology
Specific Characteristics of Specific Characteristics of SIS in NanotechnologySIS in Nanotechnology
Emerging, fragmented at the initial stage With potential huge impact on NIS, structural
shifts in economy, national competitiveness Marked by the institutional gaps, setting up
of new firms and non-firm organization, emergence of networks, learning regime and consolidation of technologies
Knowledge dynamic is an engine of SIS formation
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Specific Characteristics of Specific Characteristics of SIS in NanotechnologySIS in Nanotechnology
Knowledge base
– interdisciplinary– cross-sectoral– not coherent science
field characterized by enormous thematic breadth
– most important sub-disciplines: applied physics, material science, physical chemistry, physics of condensed matter, chemistry, molecular biology
– structural shifts from physics towards material science, polymer chemistry and chemistry
– research on nano-scale are not purely fundamental nor fully applied (use-inspired research)
Sectoral R&D system
– setting up of interdisciplinary nanotechnology centers and centers of excellence around the world
– expensive scientific infrastructure
– both basic & applied science is concentrated in public sector
– consequences of knowledge commercialization (both positive and negative) are not well explored
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Specific Characteristics of Specific Characteristics of SIS in NanotechnologySIS in Nanotechnology
Technology– emerging– disruptive– science-based
technology– not coherent
field
Nano-market– emerging & fragmented– fast developing– In 2005, there were about
1480 companies with significant predominance of USA (about 825 companies), Germany (100) and UK (98)
– Key players at the world market: SMEs and start- up, R&D organizations and some well known corporations
– In U.S. – dominance of SMEs and start-up; in EU, Asia and Russia- R&D organizations
Networks
–interdisciplinary
–overlapping
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Building Balanced Building Balanced and Adoptive SIS and Adoptive SIS
Common measures implemented around the world
– Orientation on institutional gaps– Setting up interdisciplinary research
centers– Supporting information infrastructure– Investment in scientific infrastructure– Supporting networks building– Investment in human capacity building
(training courses)– Coordination of actions between
different departments
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Building Balanced and Building Balanced and Adoptive SISAdoptive SIS
(regions’ specific measures)(regions’ specific measures)
USA– dual oriented
technologies and high share of defense sector
– Orientation on molecular technologies (bottom-up approach)
European Union
– Development of Pan-European Nano – area
– Patent system– Building nanotech
platforms– Public-private
partnership– Supporting spin-
offs
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gaponenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Building Balanced and Building Balanced and Adoptive SISAdoptive SIS
(regions’ specific measures)(regions’ specific measures)
Asia Pacific – Nano-
standardization initiatives (China)
– Strong accents on commercialization (Taiwan)
– Nanotech Roadmaps initiated by corporations (Japan, 2003)
Russia– Setting-up
governmental nano-corporation
Latin America– Millennium centers
supported by World Bank (Brazil)
– Partnership with Lucent Technology (USA) for commercialization (Argentina)
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
What drives nano-market and What drives nano-market and push corporations to invest in push corporations to invest in
nano-scale research?nano-scale research? Market expectations Growing competition at the
electronics market Aggregation of energy problems
( high prices & call for environmentally friendly technology)
Promise of some social issues solution (cancer, diabetes, early diagnostic, and the like)
Lack of innovations out of “nano”, which potentially could yield significant revenue
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Russian SIS in Nanotech: Russian SIS in Nanotech: institutional set upinstitutional set up
President of the RF
State Duma Government Council of Federation
Ministry of Science&Education
Ministry of Defense
Ministry of Industry and Energy
Ministry of ICT
Atomic Energy Agency
Ministry of Finance
General P
olicy making
Science, Innovation &
Technology P
olicy Form
ulation and F
inancing
Regional Authorities
Other
GovernmentalNanotech Council (2007)
Russian Space Agency
Ministry of EconomicAffairs Interdepartmental Nanotech Coordination Group (2006)
Russian Foundationfor Basic Research
Russian Foundationfor Promotion
of SMEs in S&T
Russian Foundationfor Technological
Development
Venture FundsInvested in Nanotech
(11)
Private fundsPublic funds
Foundation for Supporting Russian
scienceONEKSIM group
Foundation
International funds
International S&T center
Financial Infrastructure
Public R&D organizations
Academic research institute (104)Universities (80)
Departmental R&D organizations (56)
Private R&D Organizations (26)
Scientific infrastructure
Nanotech centers (42)
Know
ledge productionK
nowledge transfer&
comm
ercialization
Specialized incubators (2) Center for technology Transfer in Nanotech
(12)
Interdepartmental S&T Council for the Development Nanotechnology &Nanomaterials (2005)
Sectors of econom
y
20 spin-offs company
Public Nanotech
Corporation
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Key Characteristics & Tends Key Characteristics & Tends in Russian Nanotech SISin Russian Nanotech SIS
Ventura capital investments are still small but are growing fast
ANEKSIM group Space tech, energy, aircraft
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected]
Conclusions Conclusions SIS in Nanotech is looking for trajectories and is marked by
diversity and lacking coherence of nanofield in the current embryonic stage
Althougy nanotech are scince-driven technologies but to some degree they are pushed by existing industry boarder and are path dependent; at the same time they already drive interdisciplinary and crossectoral networks, will change knowledge foundation of NIS, mode of Industry-Academy relation and condition structural shifts in economy
Private sector plays a vital role in emerging SIS; it provides huge contribution to knowledge production; high tech companies push interdisciplinary networks and contribute to the formation of new mode of Academy-Industry relations
Public authorities measures are oriented on the development of information infrastructure, training courses, supporting networks and “filling” institutional gaps in SIS and this way they open the window for private sector
Cultural issues play a significant role in trajectory of SIS development
Center of Science Development Study, Russian Academy of Sciences
Dr. Nadezhda Gapnenko
Dr. Nadezhda GaponenkoMoscow, Obrutcheva str. 30A, [email protected] Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Nanotech Nanotech Foresight Foresight
Methods & toolsMethods & toolsAnalytical stage
S&M Benchmarking SWOT
Exploration of Nanotech future
Delphi
Technology roadmapping
Scenarios
S&T platform
Strategy Strategic technology Policy mechanisms
Delphi for knowledge Delphi for knowledge accumulation and linking accumulation and linking science push& demand science push& demand
pullpull approachesapproaches
Researches•Nanotech impact on S&T domains•Possible negative impact•Scientific & technical barriers•S&T mechanisms•Spheres of application
Corporations•Market demand& market barriers•Spheres of application•Impact on the competitiveness•Policy mechanisms
Policy- makers•Public demand•Institutional& legislative barriers•Policy mechanisms
Innovation’s users•Importance for the solution of social and env. issues• Cultural barriers
Delphi like a dialogue Delphi like a dialogue and learning processand learning process
Questionnaire developmentMultidisciplinarybrainstorming
workshop
Round 1(sending out Quest.)
Round 1(results)
List of experts with radically different judgmentsInterviews
Round 2(Quest. development &sending out)
Round 2results
Scenario logicScenario logicIdentification and mapping
key problems, important for the decision making
Driving forces mutual impact exploration
Time scale of events– Social, economic and
environmental events– Technological events
Turning points in technological trajectory
Time scale of eventsTime scale of events
S&T PlatformS&T Platform
Strategic goals
State of the art
Strategy background
Strategic technologies for the programming funding
Plan of actions and policy mechanisms
Normative scenariosStakeholders workshop
trees
Benchmarking, SWOT
scenariosMorphological analyses; stakeholders’ workshop
Delphi, scenarios; technological roadmaps
Stakeholders’ workshop
Delphi, scenarios Stakeholders’ workshop
Methodology is Methodology is designed:designed:
to link science push and demand pull approaches
to provide dialogue and learning process between different stakeholders
to link future studies with policy- making to collect the judgments of different
stakeholders and innovations’ users for the providing comprehensive assessment of coming nanotechnology
to select nanotechnology for the programming finding
to formulate policy mechanisms like dialogue between different stakeholders as well as the fields for the public- private partnership
to form the information base for the corporations’ strategic planning. The design of Foresight program like a dialogue forms also conditions for the building networks and public- private partnership