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![Page 1: Planning adaptation to climate change: Tourism community of Tulum 2030 Using future scenarios to assess local adaptation Arnoldo Matus Kramer D.Phil Candidate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062519/56649f1c5503460f94c32627/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Planning adaptation to climate change: Tourism community of Tulum 2030
Using future scenarios to assess local adaptation
Arnoldo Matus KramerD.Phil Candidate
26th of May 2010, Department of International Development, University of Oxford
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Outline
1. Why using future scenarios in Tulum?
2. Methodological Approach
3. Findings 4. Final remarks
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Why using future scenarios in Tulum?
• Information on climate change impacts
• Spatial expansion of the tourism industry
• Rapid pace of coastal urbanization
• Exponential growth of population in tourist communities
• Use of scenarios to assess adaptation options, priorities and barriers.
![Page 4: Planning adaptation to climate change: Tourism community of Tulum 2030 Using future scenarios to assess local adaptation Arnoldo Matus Kramer D.Phil Candidate.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022062519/56649f1c5503460f94c32627/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Climate Change Information and policy in Mexico
Four National Communications
• Fifth NC 2012
National Climate Change Strategy
• Special Climate Change Programme (2009-2012)
States Climate Change Action Programmes
• Quintana Roo
19971997 20012001 20062006 20072007 20092009 20122012
Fifth NC
IPCC FAR (2007)
Stern Report
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Hurricane impacts in tourism communities
Hurricane Gilbert (1988)
24% hotels rooms damaged in Cancun.
Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Most costly natural disaster in history for the Mexican Insurance sector.
+$3,000 Millones USD.
Hurricane Dean (2007)
Total destruction of the cruiser port in Mahahual.
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Cancun 1979-20071979
Population: 37,190 Urban sprawl: 2239 ha
2007
Population: 572,412 Urban sprawl: 18083 ha
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Boom de la Riviera Maya
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Playa del Carmen2000
Población: 55,000 habitantesUrbanización: 3780 ha
2008
Población: 135,108 habitantesUrbanización: 5863 ha
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Two main models of tourism
Source: CEMDA
Source: Proyecto Marti
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Tulum
2000
Población: 6,733 habitantesUrbanización: 605 ha
2008
Población: 19,913 habitantesUrbanización: 1217 ha
•New International Airport of the Riviera Maya by 2012•National strategy on tourism: 10th most visited country in 2010Top 5 by 2018
Key events:
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Methodological Approach
Phase I Phase II Phase III
Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change Scenarios planning Deliberative workshop
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Phase I: Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change
• Field season 1 (6 months)– In-depth interviews– Informal conversations– Passive observation of regional land-use planning
meetings– Collection of secondary data
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Mapping Stakeholders
Primary stakeholders
Secondary stakeholders
External stakeholders
Local officials
Community leaders
Hotel owners and managers
State officials
National officials
Developers
Consultants
Leaders of NGOs
Academics
InternationalOrganisations
UNDP
IDB
ECLAC
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Phase II: Scenarios planning
• Field season 2 (3.5 months)– Semi-structure interviews (20 interviews)– Informal conversations– Triangulation– Draft of storylines for two scenarios– Focus groups (2 sessions)– Briefing participants with methods and storylines
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Phase III: Deliberative Workshop• One-day workshop to assess adaptation options and barriers (2030)– Introduction (methods, climate change information, and
storylines)– Stakeholders working in two groups with scenarios A and B
• Adaptation options, priorities and barriers for the periods: 2010-2015, 2020 and 2030
– Discussion– Results– Feedback
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Key findings of using scenarios
Opportunity• Right participation• Key partners: – Local authorities in Tulum– National Institute of Ecology– UNDP
Challenge • Facilitate discussion• Time management• Financial and logistical
resources
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Final Remarks
• Alternative to assess local climate change adaptation in a dynamic socioeconomic context
• From participant observer to action-oriented research
• More case studies needed