Planetary and societal risks
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Transcript of Planetary and societal risks
![Page 1: Planetary and societal risks](https://reader033.fdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022052900/5561c93cd8b42ab33f8b498b/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations
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MODERATOR: Andrew Revkin dotEarth, New York Times
Sybil SeitzingerInternational Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
Deborah RogersInternational Human Dimensions Programme on Global
Environmental Change
Gisbert GlaserSenior Policy Advisor
International Council for Science
PLANETARY BOUNDARIES the urgent need for societal transformations
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Planetary and societal risks
Why we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil SeitzingerExecutive Director
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
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Antarctic ice core
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
Carbon dioxide
MethaneModern humans appear in Africa
Carbondioxide
Temperature
Methane
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Antarctic ice core
Loulergue, L.,et al Orbittal and millennial-scale features of atmospheric CH4 over the past 800,000 years, Nature, 2008.Lüthi, D. et al High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present Nature, 2008.
Carbondioxide
MethaneBeyond natural
boundaries
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Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland)And S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
Human Development andGlacial-Interglacial Cycling
Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004
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IGBP Climate-change indexGlobal carbon dioxide Arctic sea-ice minimum
Global surface temperature Global sea level
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IGBP Climate-change index
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The Great Acceleration – a planet under pressure
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Population
US Bureau of the Census (2000) International databaseIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Total real GDP
Nordhaus (1997) The economics of new goods. University of Chicago PressIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Foreign direct investment
World Bank (2002) data and statisticsIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Damming of rivers
World Commission on Dams (2000)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Water use
Shiklomanov (1990) Global Water ResourcesIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Fertiliser consumption
International Fertilizer Industry Association (2002)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Urban population
The State of the World’s Cities (2001)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Paper consumption
Pulp and paper international (1993)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Motor vehicles
Global environmental outlook (2000)IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Telephones
Canning (2001) A database of world infrastructure stocks, 1950-95 World BankIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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International tourism
World Tourism Organization (2001) Tourism industry trendsIGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Shrimp farm production
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Domesticated land
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Planetary response
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Atmospheric CO2 concentration
Etheridge et al. Geophys Res 101: 4115-4128IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Atmospheric N2O concentration
Machida et al Geophys Res Lett 22:2921-2925IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Atmospheric CH4 concentration
Blunier et al J Geophy Res 20: 2219-2222IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Northern hemisphere average surface temperature
Mann et al Geophys Res Lett 26(6): 759-762IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Ozone depletion
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Tropical rainforest and woodland loss
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Natural climatic disasters
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Fisheries exploitation
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Coastal zone nitrogen flux
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Biodiversity loss
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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Great acceleration
IGBP synthesis: Global Change and the Earth System, Steffen et al 2004
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“Our foot is stuck on the accelerator and we are heading towards an abyss.”
Ban Ki-Moon
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A resilient Earth System
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Reduced resilience – our precarious predicament
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Photograph by Annie Griffiths BeltNational Geographic, February 2008 – © National Geographic Society, All rights reserved.
Where are the thresholds in the Earth system?
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Climate Change
Ocean Acidification
Ozone Depletion
Global Freshwater Use
Rate of Biodiversity Loss
Phosphorus
Atmospheric Aerosol Loading
Land System Change
Chemical Pollution
Nitrogen
Rockström et al. 2009
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2011 Global Risks ReportWorld Economic Forum
“The world is in no position to face major, new shocks.”
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Planetary stewardship- a safe operating space for humanity
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Planetary Stewardship2020 2040 20502030
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New knowledge toward solutionsLondon, 26-29 March 2012
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Planetary and societal risks
Why we need planetary stewardship
Professor Sybil SeitzingerExecutive Director
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programmewww.igbp.net