Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success … Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013...
Transcript of Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success … Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013...
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 1
The higher up the
chart the “better” the
score was for that
placement test. The
horizontal axis
represents the
students (in the
example each red X is
a student). The charts
within the report do not
include the red X’s so
each space on the line
represents a student.
We expected positive
correlations as indicated
by the fake chart, where
the score move up
together.
In consideration of Lewis and Clark’s intention to move to a mixed method approach for the placement of incoming students the IR office began
looking for ways to assess the different tests used to place students and how well those tests predicted success. This report looks at both Compass and ACT scores as predictors of student success in both developmental and college level courses (High School GPA was unavailable). For each course studied we included the student’s grade, Compass Test score and ACT Test score and placed them into a regression model to learn the impact of the “placement test score” on the student’s final grade in the course. To the best of our ability we ensured student’s scores placed into the models had tested directly into that level and as a result some classes we attempted to include in the report were excluded due to low numbers (Math-16A, Math-137, Math-142, Math-145 and Engl-125). We developed a chart for this report to display how the relationships work. Below is an example of the charts you will find in this report. The chart below depicts a very good correlation (almost perfect). The blue line in the chart represents student’s placement test scores. The green line represents the grades of students for that course. The vertical axis indicates placement score level.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1 50
Pla
cem
en
t Te
st S
core
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
Fake Chart of the Fictitious Wonder Placement Test
Test Score
Grade
1 step above the score line represents a "B"
2 steps above the score line represent an "A"
1 step below represents a "D"
2 steps below represents one of several grades "F,FN or W"
When the grade line is on the score line represents a "C"
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 2
Table 1: Regression of Math-11A Students’ Final Grade and Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.08 1.479 227
Compass Alg. 18.94 3.318 227
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Co
mp
ass
Test
Sco
re
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-11A Students' Grade over Compass Algebra Score
CMPScore
Grade
Table 1 shows the results for
a regression model with
students’ final grade in Math-
11A as the dependent variable
and their Compass Algebra
Test score as the independent
variable. The mean or average
grade was 2.08 (“C”) and the
mean or average Compass
algebra test score was 18.94.
The regression shows a weak
positive correlation (r=.274,
N=227) between the Compass
Algebra Test scores and final
grades, meaning as Compass
Algebra scores go up final
grades go up weakly. The
regression model shows the
Compass Algebra Test explains
about seven percent (r2=.075)
of the variance in students
final grades. Combining the
lack of variance explained with
the weak nature of the
correlation the Compass
Algebra Test is a weak
predictor of student success in
Math-11A.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .274a .075 .274
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 3
Table 2: Regression of Math-11A Students’ Final Grade and ACT Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.14 1.385 148
ACT Comp. 15.35 2.457 148
5
10
15
20
25
AC
T C
om
po
site
Sco
re
Each Point Repesents a Case (Student)
MATH-11A Students' Grade over ACT Composite Score
ACTComp.
Grade
Table 2 shows the results for
a regression model with
students’ final grade in Math-
11A as the dependent variable
and their ACT Composite
score as the independent
variable. The mean or average
grade was 2.14 (“C”) and the
mean or average ACT
Composite score was 15.35.
The regression shows a
moderate, positive correlation
(r=.425, N=148) between ACT
Composite scores and final
grades, meaning as ACT
Composite scores go up so do
final grades. The regression
model shows the ACT
Composite score explains
about eighteen percent
(r2=.181) of the variance in
students final grades.
Combining the amount of
variance explained with the
moderate strength of the
correlation the ACT Composite
is a better predictor of student
success in Math-11A than the
Compass Algebra Test.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .425a .181 .425
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 4
Table 3: Regression of Math-11B Students’ Final Grade and Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.12 1.247 143
Compass Alg. 19.33 3.484 143
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Co
mp
ass
Alg
eb
ra S
core
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-11B Students' Grade over Compass Algebra Score
CMPScore
Grade
Table 3 shows the results for a
regression model with students’ final
grade in Math-11B as the dependent
variable and their Compass Algebra
Test score as the independent
variable. The mean or average grade
was 2.12 (“C”) and the mean or
average Compass Algebra Test score
was 19.33. The regression shows a
weak positive correlation (r=.119,
N=143) between the Compass
Algebra Test scores and final grades.
The positive correlation indicates the
scores move in the direction
expected (up together) the weak
strength indicates a lack of
connectivity between Compass
Algebra Test scores and a final grade
in Math-11B. The regression model
shows the Compass Algebra Test
explains about one percent (r2=.014)
of the variance in students final
grades. Combining the lack of
variance explained with the weak
nature of the correlation the
Compass Algebra Test is a poor
predictor of student success in
Math-11B. As a result of these
findings it appears that the Compass
Algebra Test is much more closely
calibrated to the A module.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .119a .014 .119
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 5
Table 4: Regression of Math-12A First Time Students’ Final Grade and Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.45 1.401 211
Compass Alg. 29.10 7.311 211
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Co
mp
ass
Alg
eb
ra S
core
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-12A Students' Grade over Compass Algebra Score
Comp.Score
Grade
Table 4 shows the results for a
regression model with first time
students’ final grade in Math-12A
as the dependent variable and
their Compass Algebra Test score
as the independent variable. The
mean or average grade was 2.45
(“C”) and the mean or average
Compass Algebra Test score was
29.10. The regression shows a
weak positive correlation (r=.268,
N=211) between the Compass
Algebra Test scores and final
grades. Again in this model the
relationship works as expected
(both move up together),
however the relationship is a
weak one. The regression model
shows the Compass Algebra Test
explains about seven percent
(r2=.072) of the variance in
students final grades. Combining
the lack of variance explained
with the weak nature of the
correlation between Compass
algebra scores and Math-12A
grade the Compass Algebra Test
is a weak predictor of student
success in Math-12A.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .268a .072 .268
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 6
Table 5: Regression of Math-12A First Time Students’ Final Grade and ACT Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.65 1.277 148
ACT Comp. 18.08 3.025 148
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
AC
T C
om
po
site
Sco
re
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-12A Students' Grade over ACT Composite Score
ACTComp.
Grade
Table 5 shows the results for
a regression model with first
time students’ final grade in
Math-12A as the dependent
variable and their ACT
Composite score as the
independent variable. The
mean or average grade was
2.65 (“C”) and the mean or
average ACT Composite score
was 18.08. The regression
shows a moderate, positive
correlation (r=.319, N=148)
between ACT Composite
scores and final grades,
meaning as ACT Composite
scores go up so do final
grades. The regression model
shows the ACT Composite
score explains about ten
percent (r2=.102) of the
variance in students final
grades. Combining the
amount of variance explained
with the moderate strength of
the correlation shows the ACT
Composite is a better
predictor of student success in
Math-12A than the Compass
algebra test.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .319a .102 .319
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 7
Table 6: Regression of Math-12B Students’ Final Grade and Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.61 1.313 226
Compass Alg. 28.85 7.917 226
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Co
mp
ass
Alg
eb
ra S
core
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-12B Students' Grade over Compass Algebra Score
CMPScore
Grade
Table 6 shows the results for a
regression model with a students’
final grade in Math-12B as the
dependent variable and their
Compass Algebra Test score as
the independent variable. The
mean or average grade was 2.61
(“C”) and the mean or average
Compass Algebra Test score was
28.85. The regression shows a
weak positive correlation (r=.229,
N=226) between Compass
Algebra Test scores and final
grades. The regression model
shows the Compass Algebra Test
explains about five percent
(r2=.052) of the variance in
students final grades. Combining
the lack of variance explained
with the weak nature of the
correlation the Compass Algebra
Test is a weak predictor of
student success in Math-12B. It is
interesting that while there is still
fall off between 12A and 12B the
fall off is not as severe as it was
between 11A and 11B indicating
the Compass Algebra Test is
better calibrated as a predictor
for Math-12B than Math-11B.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .229a .052 .229
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 8
Table 7: Regression of Math-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and College Level Compass Algebra Test Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.95 1.1127 78
Compass Alg. 48.14 12.235 78
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Co
mp
ass
Co
llege
Le
vel A
lge
bra
Sco
re
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-131 Students' Grade over Compass College Level Algebra Score
CMPScore
Grade
Table 7 shows the results for a
regression model with non-
developmental students’ final grade
in Math-131 as the dependent
variable and their Compass College
Level (CL) Algebra Test score as the
independent variable. The mean or
average grade was 2.95 (“C”) and
the mean or average Compass CL
Algebra Test score was 48.14. The
regression shows a moderate
positive correlation (r=.457, N=78)
between Compass CL Algebra Test
scores and final grades. The
regression model shows the
Compass CL Algebra Test explains
about twenty percent (r2=.209) of
the variance in students final
grades. Combining the amount of
variance explained with the
moderate nature of the correlation
the Compass CL Algebra Test is a
moderate predictor of student
success in Math-131. These findings
must be tempered by the small
sample size. Both the Compass CL
Algebra and ACT Composite tests
lacked sufficient numbers to fully
assess.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .457a .209 .457
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 9
Table 8: Regression of ENGL-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and Compass English Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.86 1.359 161
Compass Alg. 8.47 1.581 161
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
Co
mp
ass
Engl
ish
Sco
re
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
Non-Developmental ENGL-131 Students' Grade over Compass English Score
CMPScore
Grade
Table 8 shows the results for a
regression model with non-
developmental students’ final
grade in ENGL-131 as the
dependent variable and their
Compass English Test score as the
independent variable. The mean
or average grade was 2.86 (“C+”)
and the mean or average
Compass English Test score was
8.47. The regression shows a
weak positive correlation (r=.072,
N=161) between Compass English
Test scores and final grades. The
regression model shows the
Compass English Test explains
about half of a percent (r2=.005)
of the variance in students final
grades. Combining the amount of
variance explained with the weak
nature of the correlation the
Compass English Test is a weak
predictor of student success in
ENGL-131.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .072a .005 .072
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 10
Table 9: Regression of ENGL-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and Compass Read Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 3.15 1.122 239
Compass Alg. 89.44 6.53 239
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Co
mp
ass
Re
ad S
core
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
Non-Developmental English-131 Students' Grade over
Compass Read Score
CompassScore
Grade
Table 9 shows the results for a
regression model with non-
developmental students’ final
grade in ENGL-131 as the
dependent variable and their
Compass Read Test score as the
independent variable. The mean
or average grade was 3.15 (“B”)
and the mean or average
Compass Read test score was
89.44. The regression shows a
weak positive correlation (r=.241,
N=239) between Compass Read
Test scores and final grades. The
regression model shows the
Compass Read Test explains
about five percent (r2=.058) of
the variance in students final
grades. Combining the amount of
variance explained with the weak
nature of the correlation the
Compass Read Test is a weak
predictor of student success in
ENGL-131.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .241a .058 .241
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 11
Table 10: Regression of ENGL-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and ACT English Score, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.60 1.380 275
Compass Alg. 20.50 4.934 275
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
AC
T En
glis
h S
core
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
Non-Developmental ENGL-131 Students' Grade over ACT English Score
ACTScore
Grade
Table 10 shows the results for a
regression model with non-
developmental students’ final
grade in ENGL-131 as the
dependent variable and their ACT
English test score as the
independent variable. The mean
or average grade was 2.60 (“C”)
and the mean or average ACT
English test score was 20.50. The
regression shows a moderate
positive correlation (r=.340,
N=275) between ACT English Test
scores and final grades. The
regression model shows the ACT
English Test explains about
eleven percent (r2=.116) of the
variance in students final grades.
Combining the amount of
variance explained with the
moderate nature of the
correlation the ACT English Test is
a moderate predictor of student
success in ENGL-131 and the 2nd
best predictor of student success
in ENGL-131 of all of the “tests”
used or accessible to Lewis and
Clark.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .340a .116 .241
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 12
Table 11: Regression of ENGL-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and High School GPA, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.29 1.371 216
Compass Alg. 2.842 .602 216
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Hig
h S
cho
ol G
PA
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
Non-Developmental ENGL-131 Students' Grade over High School GPA
HS GPA
Grade
Table 11 shows the results for a
regression model with non-
developmental students’ final
grade in ENGL-131 as the
dependent variable and their
High School GPA as the
independent variable. The mean
or average grade was 2.29 (“C”)
and the mean or average High
School GPA was 2.842. The
regression shows a moderate
positive correlation (r=.436,
N=216) between High School GPA
and final grades. The regression
model shows High School GPA
explains about eighteen percent
(r2=.186) of the variance in
students final grades. Combining
the amount of variance explained
with the moderate nature of the
correlation and High School GPA
is a moderate predictor of
student success in ENGL-131 and
the best predictor of student
success in ENGL-131 of all of the
“tests” used or accessible to
Lewis and Clark.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .436a .186 .436
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 13
Table 12: Regression of MATH-12A Students’ Final Grade and High School GPA, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.54 1.358 144
Compass Alg. 2.81 .649 144
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Hig
h S
cho
ol G
PA
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-12A Students' Grade over High School GPA
HS GPA
Grade
Table 12 shows the results for a
regression model with non-
developmental students’ final
grade in Math-12A as the
dependent variable and their
High School GPA as the
independent variable. The mean
or average grade was 2.54 (“C”)
and the mean or average High
School GPA was 2.81. The
regression shows a strong
positive correlation (r=.528,
N=144) between High School GPA
and final grades. The regression
model shows High School GPA
explains about twenty-seven
percent (r2=.273) of the variance
in students final grades.
Combining the amount of
variance explained with the
strong nature of the correlation
and High School GPA is a strong
predictor of student success in
Math-12A and the best predictor
of student success in Math-12A of
all of the “tests” used or
accessible to Lewis and Clark.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .528a .273 .528
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 14
Table 13: Regression of MATH-11A Students’ Final Grade and High School GPA, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.06 1.399 105
Compass Alg. 2.513 .603 105
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Hig
h S
cho
ol G
PA
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-11A Students' Grade over High School GPA
HS GPA
Grade
Table 13 shows the results for a
regression model with non-
developmental students’ final
grade in Math-11A as the
dependent variable and their
High School GPA as the
independent variable. The mean
or average grade was 2.06 (“C”)
and the mean or average High
School GPA was 2.513. The
regression shows a weak positive
correlation (r=.277, N=105)
between High School GPA and
final grades. The regression
model shows High School GPA
explains about seven percent
(r2=.077) of the variance in
students final grades. Combining
the amount of variance explained
with the weak nature of the
correlation and High School GPA
is a weak predictor of student
success in Math-11A. The ACT
Composite remains the best
predictor of student success in
Math-11A of all of the “tests”
used or accessible to Lewis and
Clark.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .277a .077 .277
Placement Tests as Predictors of Student Success 2013
Lewis & Clark Community College – Office of Institutional Research Page 15
Table 14: Regression of Math-131 Non-Developmental Students’ Final Grade and High School GPA, Fall 2012
Descriptive Statistics
Mean Std. Deviation N
GRD 2.00 1.561 56
Compass Alg. 3.06 .519 56
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Hig
h S
cho
ol G
PA
Each Point Represents a Case (Student)
MATH-131 Students' Grade over High School GPA
HS GPA
Grade
Table 14 shows the results for a
regression model with non-
developmental students’ final
grade in Math-131 as the
dependent variable and their
High School GPA as the
independent variable. The mean
or average grade was 2.00 (“C”)
and the mean or average High
School GPA was 3.06. The
regression shows a strong
positive correlation (r=.585,
N=56) between High School GPA
and final grades. The regression
model shows High School GPA
explains about thirty-four percent
(r2=.342) of the variance in
students final grades. Combining
the amount of variance explained
with the strong nature of the
correlation and High School GPA
is a strong predictor of student
success in Math-131 and the best
predictor of student success in
Math-131 of all of the “tests”
used or accessible to Lewis and
Clark.
Source: Informer (CMP scores)
Model Summary
Model R R Square Std. Coefficients
Beta
1 .585a .342 .585